|
on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Karen Macours; Julieta Vera Rueda; Duncan Webb |
| Abstract: | Menstrual stigma is pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, yet we know little about its consequences for girls’ human capital. In a field experiment in 140 schools in Madagascar (N=2, 256), we evaluate a school hygiene program focused on reducing menstrual stigma through sanitation infrastructure, menstrual products, and teacher- and peer-led sensitization. The program generates substantial learning gains (0.15 SD) without improving attendance or health. The learning gains are instead explained by psychosocial mechanisms: reduced stigma, lower stress measured by heart rate, and a better school social climate. Our results suggest that menstruation can be a meaningful barrier to girls’ learning. |
| Keywords: | Menstrual stigma, Learning outcomes, School climate, Psychosocial mechanisms, Social norms, Adolescent girls, Field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 I12 I21 J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2605 |
| By: | Dante Donati; Lena Song |
| Abstract: | Online comment sections let a small number of vocal individuals reach far beyond their own networks. We conduct a large-scale field experiment on Facebook that randomizes the presence and stance of comments beneath posts for a racial justice organization, reaching around one million U.S. users. Opposing comments increase reactions, comments, and link clicks by 15–43 percent relative to no comments, whereas supportive comments have little effect. A complementary survey experiment shows that similar opposing comments make attitudes less progressive and reduce donations to the organization. Through a common feature of online platforms, the vocal few can exert outsized influence. |
| Keywords: | social media, comments, user-generated content, social influence, field experiments |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D83 D91 J15 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13018 |
| By: | Stefanie S Baumgartner (UNIFR - Université de Fribourg = University of Fribourg); Fabio Galeotti (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE) - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thierry Madiès (UNIFR - Université de Fribourg = University of Fribourg); Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE) - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Trust plays a crucial role in refugees' integration. This study examines how social information about trust levels among peers from home and host countries affects non-Western refugees' trust. Using a trust game, we experimentally measured trust levels among Swiss citizens, Turkish refugees, and Afghan refugees. We found that Turkish refugees exhibited higher trust levels than Afghan refugees, but no significant differences in trust were observed between Swiss participants and either refugee group. Turkish refugees adjusted their trust to match Swiss levels when receiving social information, but observation by compatriots reduced this effect. By contrast, Afghan refugees exhibited a more limited response to social information, except when told their behavior would be revealed, which led them to align more closely with Swiss trust levels. These findings highlight the complex impact of social information on refugee trust behavior and suggest that trust can be a social norm. |
| Keywords: | Social norms, Lab-in-the-field experiment, Social information, Trust, Refugees |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05001907 |
| By: | Dante Donati; Lena Song |
| Abstract: | Online comment sections let a small number of vocal individuals reach far beyond their own networks. We conduct a large-scale field experiment on Facebook that randomizes the presence and stance of comments beneath posts for a racial justice organization, reaching around one million U.S. users. Opposing comments increase reactions, comments, and link clicks by 15-43 percent relative to no comments, whereas supportive comments have little effect. A complementary survey experiment shows that similar opposing comments make attitudes less progressive and reduce donations to the organization. Through a common feature of online platforms, the vocal few can exert outsized influence. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.32880 |
| By: | Evangelos Dioikitopoulos; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Tommaso Sartori; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | Public information campaigns often rely on credible expert messengers to influence people's beliefs. We study how messenger identity and communication technology shape persuasion in a large-scale randomized experiment on vaccination attitudes among young adults in Greece. Participants receive an identical public-health message that varies only in who delivers it-a medical scientist or a social media influencer-and in how it is delivered-through immersive virtual reality or conventional video. Exposure raises trust in vaccines and trust in the healthcare system. Scientists are rated substantially more credible than influencers yet are no more persuasive on average; the two groups' effectiveness rests on different characteristics-the scientists' on perceived reliability and knowledgeability, the influencers' on personal appeal, prior familiarity, and reputation. We find that persuasion is greater under virtual reality, consistent with stronger engagement. Changes in beliefs persist for at least six months, and initially hesitant participants report greater willingness to vaccinate. A model in which engagement, prior uncertainty, and effective credibility enter persuasion multiplicatively rationalizes these patterns. |
| Keywords: | randomized experiment, persuasion, belief formation, source credibility, messenger familiarity, social media influencers, virtual reality, engagement, health communication, vaccination |
| JEL: | C93 D83 I12 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26236 |
| By: | Enang, Imowo; Omeihe, Kingsley Obi |
| Abstract: | This working paper presents the results of an experimental study investigating the performance impacts of quantum computing approaches on business analytics and strategic decision making. While the theoretical benefits of quantum computing for complex business problems have been explored, empirical evidence of measurable performance advantages remains scarce. Our research addresses this knowledge gap through a series of controlled laboratory experiments comparing classical and quantum-inspired optimisation algorithms. Using a mixed factorial experimental design with 124 professional participants from 28 organisations, our results demonstrate statistically significant advantages of quantum-inspired approaches for large-scale, complex optimisation problems with high dimensionality and multiple constraints. We present an integrated framework for quantum advantage in business analytics that maps specific business problem characteristics to quantum computing approaches. The paper concludes with practical recommendations for organisations considering quantum-inspired analytics investments, as well as a research agenda addressing key challenges for broader quantum computing adoption in business contexts. |
| Keywords: | quantum driven analytics; decision making |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:54467 |
| By: | Bensch, Gunther; Rose, Julian; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | Hahn et al. (2020, FRIENDS_EJ), published in the Economic Journal, evaluate a treatment randomized across 115 Bangladeshi primary schools that assigned students to study for one week either in groups of friends or with randomly picked peers. They find that the friends treatment improves math performance, but only among low-ability girls. We identify four sets of unresolved discrepancies: inconsistent accounts of implementation responsibilities, irregularities in the sample and group structure, misalignments between reported procedures and observed data, and implausible missing-data and attendance patterns. Taken together, these issues are not merely reporting imperfections, but reveal multiple discrepancies between the published record, earlier versions of the study, the replication data, and the two replies subsequently provided by the authors. These unresolved discrepancies preclude independent verification of material aspects of the study record and raise serious concerns about the credibility of the reported findings. |
| Keywords: | Replication, peer effects, girls' education |
| JEL: | C18 C93 I25 O12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:330 |
| By: | Clement de Chaisemartin; Antoine Deeb |
| Abstract: | Multi-site randomized experiments, which are common in economics and medicine, can reveal how treatment effects vary across settings. However, differences between site-specific estimates reflect both treatment-effect heterogeneity and estimation noise. We build on established measurement-error corrections and develop new ones to study this heterogeneity in experiments with many sites and few units per site. In particular, our results can be used to estimate the variance and centered third moment of treatment effects across sites, relate site effects to untreated outcomes, conduct mediation analyses, assess the roles of provider effectiveness and site responsiveness, and study heterogeneity in local average treatment effects (LATEs) under imperfect compliance. We apply our methods to counseling programs delivered by public and private providers in about 200 French employment offices. Average employment gains of about 2 percentage points conceal cross-site standard deviations of intention-to-treat effects of 8 to 9 percentage points. We also find substantial LATE heterogeneity. Effects are negatively associated with untreated employment rates. The two programs also tend to be more effective in the same sites, consistent with a role for heterogeneous site responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | Measurement error, multi-site randomized controlled trials, multi-centre randomized controlled trials, heterogeneous treatment effects |
| JEL: | C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26254 |
| By: | Isabelle Salle (University of Amsterdam); Hung Truong (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the empirical literature in macroeconomics on heterogeneous expectations both from surveys and laboratory experiments. Section 1 defines the main concepts, Section 2 provides a historical perspective, Section 3 focuses on inflation expectations, Section 4 broadens up to other variables, and Section 5 concludes with avenues for future work. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneity in Expectations: Empirical and Experimental Evidence |
| JEL: | E70 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260080 |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Yyannú Cruz-Aguayo (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Francesca Salvati (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Norbert Schady (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/60 |
| By: | Mari Tanaka; Hiroko Okudaira; Mariko Sakka; Shintaro Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | We test whether employers can shift household allocation by targeting men as fathers. Among 1, 225 male employees in four Japanese organizations, we randomized a two-hour work-life balance training and an information treatment correcting misperceptions of colleagues' support. Training increased fathers' weekend childcare by about one hour per day in young-child households and raised spouses' reported paid work; spouses' housework also fell. Training strengthened beliefs that paternity leave benefits workplace functioning but not leave intentions. Information modestly shifted perceived support but affected neither intentions nor information-seeking. Employer training can affect household allocation without changing formal rights or work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | workplace intervention, paternity leave, household time allocation, second-order beliefs, field experiment |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26248 |
| By: | Ortiz-Riomalo, Juan Felipe; Ramírez-Ramón, David; Engel, Stefanie; Koessler, Ann-Kathrin |
| Abstract: | Perceived and geographical distance among relevant actors can hinder prosocial behaviour and challenge environmental governance. Perspective-taking (the act of considering another's perspective and circumstances) can help overcome these challenges, but its impact is far from straightforward and depends on the mechanisms it activates. We further conceptualise and explore these, focusing on the potential impacts of perspective-taking on values, perceptions and affect. Our exploratory analysis is based on an extended literature review and (qualitative and quantitative) data from an economic experiment involving 205 farmers in the lower section of an Andean watershed. In the experiment, farmers decided on a donation that would support farmers upstream, who are relatively less well-off but have contributed to stable water provision downstream. Some participants were induced to engage in perspective-taking either through a video or a field visit before deciding on their donation. We elicited their reasons for (not) donating and systematically analysed these. We show that perspective-taking fosters values (namely, outgroup solidarity and other-regarding preferences), perceptions (of closeness), and affect (compassion) among otherwise distant actors. Yet prosocial behaviour is only strongly associated with other-regarding preferences. Values, so far underexplored, thus emerge as a key pathway linking perspective-taking with prosocial behaviour. However, a comparison across experimental conditions suggests that this impact of perspective-taking arguably depends on the information medium, which shapes participants' assessments of both others' relative needs and the possibilities for helping. This value-based pathway, along with the specific impact of perspective-taking procedures, invites future research. |
| Keywords: | perspective-taking, values, prosocial behaviour, environmental governance |
| JEL: | D64 Q57 D91 H41 Q25 Q24 Q10 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344049 |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro; Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo; Francesca Salvati; Norbert Schady |
| Abstract: | We study how poorly-behaved children affect learning and other outcomes of their peers using data from a unique experiment in Ecuador. Within each school, students were randomly assigned to classrooms in every grade for seven consecutive grades, between kindergarten and 6th grade. Children with persistent behavioral problems lower the math and language achievement of their classmates. The more poorly-behaved children there are in a classroom, the larger is their negative impact on the achievement of their classmates. These negative impacts are larger for younger children, and they persist for at least two years after exposure to a poorly-behaved peer. There are no dynamic complementarities in the impact of poorly-behaved peers: impacts are similar for children who were and were not previously exposed to poorly-behaved peers (and for high and low ability children). We find indirect evidence that children with persistent behavioral difficulties are passed around schools. |
| Keywords: | disruption, peers, random classroom assignment |
| JEL: | I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13032 |
| By: | Di Giacomo Marina (University of Turin, Italy); Mantovani Marco (University of Milan Bicocca, Italy); Poggi Ambra (ESOMAS Department, University of Turin, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Early detection of CVD risk factors through preventive screening programs can substantially reduce adverse outcomes, yet participation rates remain suboptimal. In this paper, we examine whether perceived social closeness between the sender and the recipient of an invitation to a free cardiovascular health check affects health beliefs and willingness to engage in preventive health intentions. Using a survey experiment on a representative sample of approximately 2, 588 individuals aged 40-74 in England-the target population for the NHS Health Check program-we randomly assign participants to receive an invitation message from a peer who either shares or does not share their social norms. We study whether social closeness between the messenger and the recipient shapes perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and perceived benefits, as predicted by the Health Belief Model. The manipulation successfully alters perceptions of social closeness, and the estimated effects are consistent with the hypothesis that socially closer peer messages are more effective in promoting preventive health intentions. |
| Keywords: | Preventive healthcare, survey experiment, behavioral public policies, social closeness, cardiovascular disease |
| JEL: | I12 I18 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:110 |
| By: | Veer, Evan; Fiala, Lenka |
| Abstract: | Björkman Nyqvist et al. (2024) evaluate a randomized experiment in rural Uganda that studies whether strengthening women’s communication skills within marriage can shift household decisions toward greater investment in child health. All treatments provide health and nutrition training, varying whether mothers or fathers are involved, while one additional treatment incorporates a communication skills curriculum for mothers, allowing the authors to isolate the effect of communication. The authors report five core findings: First, women offered communication training report improved relationship quality. Second, the communication treatment increases the frequency of discussions between spouses about health and finances, but does not improve men’s health knowledge, indicating limited information transmission. Third, communication training does not increase the adoption of health-promoting behaviors beyond the gains from women’s health training alone. Fourth, the communication training shifts household spending, particularly on meat and fish. Fifth, none of the treatments improves the study's primary child health outcomes. We successfully computationally reproduce the paper's main claims, and show that the results are robust to corrections for multiple hypothesis testing, inclusion of control variables in analyses, and an alternative definition of relationship quality measure. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7qgtj_v1 |
| By: | Xin Jiang (University of Southern California); Bohan Ye (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | Timestamps that reveal response times (RTs) have become a common feature of contemporary social media platforms and messaging applications. What information does RT reveal when users have conflicting interests, and can they use this information to improve communication outcomes? We conduct a sender–receiver experiment to examine the relationship between RT and message honesty. We find that longer RTs are associated with a higher likelihood of deception, consistent with a cognitive-conflict mechanism under which lying involves greater cognitive struggle. Receivers, however, rely more consistently on senders’ message frequency than on RT when assessing message credibility. |
| Keywords: | lie detection; response time; information acquisition; cognitive conflict |
| JEL: | C92 D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202608 |
| By: | Shruti Jha; John List; Rebecca C. Royer; Anya Samek |
| Abstract: | Do early investments in parents pay off even when treatment effects for children appear to fade out quickly? We answer this question by leveraging a field experiment in which households with 3-5 year-old children were randomized into a parenting program, a preschool, or a control group, combined with a natural experiment (Covid-19 school closures) that occurred ten years later. Prior to the closures, treatment effects on academic achievement had faded to zero across all groups. Yet, with Covid-19 school closures, effects of the parenting program re-emerge: test scores in control and preschool groups drop by roughly 0.25-0.30 SD, whereas scores in the parenting group drop by only 0.11 SD (difference: p = 0.01). Our findings suggest that parenting programs can generate latent human capital that only becomes visible when complementary school inputs are removed. This result is consonant with parental and school investments acting as substitutes in skill production. Because this latent parental capacity pays off precisely when school inputs fail, standard measurement tools for early childhood programs can miss crucial state-contingent value. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00841 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Ana Fernandes; Nurlan Lalayev; Doris Weichselbaumer |
| Abstract: | We study gender differences in employers' responses to commuting distance using data from a large-scale correspondence test in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. A 10 km increase in driving distance reduces women's probability of receiving an interview invitation by 1.8 percentage points, around 9 percent of the mean female invitation rate, while commuting distance has no corresponding effect for men. The gender difference is statistically significant and robust to alternative distance measures and thresholds, firms' rural or urban location, and local labor-market tightness. The female distance penalty does not vary detectably with applicants' reported marital status or the presence of children, providing no support for screening based on these observed indicators of household responsibilities. |
| Keywords: | Gender Discrimination, Commuting, Labor Market, Field Experiment, Germany, Switzerland, Austria |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J61 J71 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26246 |
| By: | Ola Andersson; Carlos Kurschilgen; Michael Kurschilgen; Daniel Spiro |
| Abstract: | Rotating leadership is prevalent in international relations. Examples include the presidencies of the EU Council, the G7, and the African Union. Why would self-interested actors take turns rather than, for instance, have a permanent leader? We study this question in a repeated three-player coordination game of conflicting interests, where agents want to coordinate on a common action (leadership), but disagree on what is the best action to coordinate on (who should lead at any point in time). Standard subgame perfection provides no answer to the research question since it allows for many leadership arrangements, including a permanent leader, or the exclusion of one agent from leadership, or fully rotating leadership. We show, however, that they differ in robustness to coalitional deviations. Asymmetric arrangements give disadvantaged players persistent incentives to form a breakaway coalition against the incumbent. By evenly distributing leadership opportunities, full rotation emerges as the most stable self-enforcing institution. Results from a preregistered laboratory experiment support the relevance of this mechanism also to interpersonal relations: rotations predominate when interests are highly heterogeneous, while permanent leadership arises mainly when interests are relatively aligned. Refuting predictions from inequality aversion, rotations remain predominant even when one player receives an additional choice-independent lump-sum income, while strategies aimed at reducing this payoff gap remain rare. This suggests that the risk of coalitional breakdown is an important driver of why also individuals – not just nations – share decision making evenly. |
| Keywords: | turn-taking, rotations, coalition proofness, inequality aversion, coordination, experiment |
| JEL: | C72 C92 D71 D74 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13027 |
| By: | Macchiavello, Rocco; Menzel, Andreas; Rabbani, Atonu; Woodruff, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Women remain disadvantaged in promotion to managerial positions. We conduct a field experiment with 24 large garment factories in Bangladesh to test for inefficient representation of women among line supervisors. We identify the marginal female and male candidates for supervisory positions and randomly assign them to manage production lines. We document four findings: (1) In contrast to widespread negative beliefs about women's ability as supervisors at baseline, female candidates selected by the factories had similar skills to males; (2) during the trial, females performed worse than males, which we show is related to negative bias against them; (3) after the trial, however, many female candidates were retained as supervisors and, conditional on that, performed similar to males; and (4) after the end of our intervention, factories permanently increased the share of women among newly appointed supervisors. A conceptual framework of experimentation over discrimination rationalizes all these facts and cautions against the standard logic to test for discrimination: when there is uncertainty about the performance of the discriminated group, equal—or even worse—performance of the marginal candidates of that group is no longer sufficient to rule out inefficient discrimination. |
| Keywords: | gender discrimination;productivity;export manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J71 M51 M54 O14 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130806 |
| By: | Støstad, Morten Nyborg (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a theory of popular support for inequality reduction based on rational self-interest. In a controlled experiment across 40 countries and 92, 696 respondents, I isolate altruistic transfers from self-preserving transfers made to avoid perceived negative consequences of inequality. Many non-altruistic individuals transfer to individuals with smaller allocations to protect themselves from harmful consequences, creating selfish equality. Across countries, selfish equality accounts for substantially more cross-country variation in societal redistribution than altruistic giving or any other leading alternative explanation from the literature. The results suggest that redistributive societies are not distinguished by particular fairness views, but by a shared belief that equality is pragmatically beneficial for all citizens. |
| Keywords: | Selfish equality; fairness views |
| JEL: | C91 |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_015 |
| By: | Yuki Shiomi; Nobuyuki Hanaki |
| Abstract: | We experimentally examine whether partial commitment to the message distribution can substitute for full commitment to the information structure in Bayesian persuasion. Theory predicts that when the players’ marginal incentives are aligned, an equilibrium with the same level of information transmission as under full commitment can be sustained even under partial commitment, whereas when marginal incentives are misaligned, no information can be credibly transmitted. Our central finding is that, even when marginal incentives are aligned, information transmission is substantially lower under partial commitment than under full commitment: partial commitment does not fully substitute for full commitment in practice. When marginal incentives are misaligned, information transmission declines further under partial commitment, as theory predicts. We also find that misaligned marginal incentives reduce information transmission even under full commitment, where the standard theory predicts no such effect. Our analysis of sender behavior shows that, in all of these cases, senders transmit less information than the theoretical benchmark implies, suggesting that sender undercommunication plays an important role in the lower information transmission we observe. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1322 |
| By: | Samuel Drößler; Ulrich Fritsche; Junbo Huang; Max Weinig |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how households conceptualize inflation and how these qualitative narratives correlate with inflation expectations and policy preferences. Using a representative survey of over 4, 000 German households, we elicit open-ended narratives regarding the 2022–2023 inflation surge and represent them as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) via fine-tuned large language models. We find that German households overwhelmingly interpret the inflation episode through supply-side channels and the war in Ukraine, while demand-side explanations remain comparatively rare. Beyond these aggregate patterns, inflation narratives systematically vary by financial literacy, personal economic experience, and institutional trust. Narrative structure and content correlate with inflation beliefs: supply-side narratives are associated with lower inflation expectations, whereas narratives emphasizing government action or corporate price gouging correspond to higher expectations and lower target inflation rates. A preregistered randomized information provision experiment using real-world newspaper excerpts demonstrates that exposure to news narratives significantly impacts qualitative inflation expectations, whereas quantitative expectations display greater rigidity. However, narrative exposure significantly reduces reliance on prior inflation perceptions, with treatment effects exhibiting mild heterogeneity across levels of financial literacy and prior inflation experience. |
| Keywords: | . |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2026-014 |
| By: | Erica Chiang; Kenny Peng; Rebecca Lichtenstein; Brielle McDaniel; Kristen O'Neil; Deja Thomas; Lianna Wright; Jon Kleinberg; Eva Tardos; Nikhil Garg |
| Abstract: | Algorithmic recommendations can help participants navigate large matching markets. For example, recommendations for school and college choices may reduce information frictions and disparities in access to high-performing programs. At scale, however, recommenders in capacity-constrained settings can be self-defeating: if they steer too many users toward the same items, then even users who were originally predicted to have a high chance of matching to an item may not, due to increased competition. In this paper, we formalize this phenomenon of recommendation-induced congestion; motivated by the NYC high school match, we show that naive recommendations can cause sharp decreases in program acceptance rates, most affecting applicants with the fewest nearby options. Next, we propose and theoretically analyze a congestion-aware, bilevel optimize-and-simulate approach to allocate recommendations and improve match outcomes safely, in equilibrium. Finally, we deploy this approach in the 2025-26 admissions cycle of the NYC high school match, aiming to reduce disparities by highlighting personalized lists of nearby, high-performing programs where an applicant has a high predicted offer likelihood. In a randomized controlled trial, we find that 16.4% of treatment applicants ranked a recommended program, versus 10.5% of control applicants who ranked a program they would have been recommended (57% relative increase; $p$=0.011); 5.6% of treatment applicants matched to such a program, versus 3.3% of control applicants (71% relative increase; $p$=0.071); further, no treatment applicant was rejected from a recommended program. Our findings suggest that recommenders should be analyzed and designed as market-shaping interventions. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.08275 |
| By: | Jha, Natasha (Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning); Abel, Martin (Bowdoin College); Piraino, Patrizio (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | We study how scheduling demands shape gig-work supply and its composition in an experiment with U.S. gig workers, eliciting reservation wages for contracts varying in advance notice, timing, and duration. No-notice contracts raise reservation wages by 13–14 percent, while outside-hours work with notice carries little penalty. Women require 5–6 percent more than men for outside-hours or no-notice work, and 8–9 percent more when combined. These gaps are largest among workers with heavy household-chore burdens and inflexible schedules. Higher-productivity workers also require larger no-notice premiums. At a given wage, demanding contracts therefore reduce labor supply and select a lower-productivity labor pool. |
| Keywords: | scheduling demands, gig economy, gender gap, reservation wages, worker selection |
| JEL: | J22 J16 J31 J41 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18976 |
| By: | Wei Ma |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence reveals that, in aggregating time preferences, a decision maker exhibits mild aversion to inequality across individuals' evaluations of a stream. Neither the utilitarian nor the maxmin aggregation rule can account for this finding. Building on principles concerning the comparability of intergenerational utilities and intergenerational fairness, this paper axiomatizes a family of aggregation rules that allow the decision maker to display varying degrees of inequality aversion. These rules fit well with experimental data. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.36744 |
| By: | Vu, Patrick; Faridani, Stefan |
| Abstract: | In the empirical sciences, significance thresholds often determine whether findings are treated as evidence of an effect. This paper studies how likely findings that just meet conventional significance thresholds are to remain significant in replications of the same sample size. To answer this question, we estimate the expected replication probability conditional on a given p-value among published studies for experimental economics, psychology, and social science. We validate this measure by showing it accurately predicts actual replication outcomes, outperforming prediction markets. A finding with a p-value of 0.05 has an expected replication probability ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 across fields. Low replicability reflects small true effects in original studies rather than selective reporting. Significant findings are therefore often informative about the existence of an effect, but frequently overstate its magnitude. Finally, we develop a nonparametric estimator and apply it to economics literatures that use larger samples, finding higher but still low replication probabilities. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:322 |
| By: | Yvonne Jie Chen (Asian Development Bank); Jie Gong (University of Hong Kong); Jin Li (University of Hong Kong); Zibo Zhao (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | While generative artificial intelligence (AI) promises productive efficiency, it can paradoxically lead to lower quality work. We conducted an experiment with professional illustrators and found that AI assistance flattens the quality curve—it accelerates initial gains but sharply diminishes the returns on sustained effort. Faced with this, a significant number of professionals made a strategic choice: they sacrificed the final quality to save time. Our finding highlights a critical challenge for generative AI, which can weaken the motivation required for creative excellence and innovation. In developing economies, where governments may seek to boost growth by using generative AI to substitute for scarce skills, our results suggest that such gains may come at the cost of the sustained effort through which higher-quality work and expertise are built. |
| Keywords: | AI;artificial intelligence;generative AI;motivation;labor productivity;technology adoption |
| JEL: | D91 O31 O33 J24 M50 |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:023629 |
| By: | Kowalik, Zuzanna (Institute for Structural Research (IBS), University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Pompei, Fabrizio (Università degli Studi di Perugia); Stichnoth, Holger (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)); Szymczak, Wojciech (Uppsala University); Thil, Laurène (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | We study platform workers' preferences for social protection — in the form of sick pay and paid annual leave — distinguishing between workers who entered platform work out of economic necessity (the "pushed") and those attracted by its flexibility and advantages (the "pulled"). Using a discrete-choice experiment administered to nearly 800 taxi, delivery, and cleaning platform workers in Germany, Italy, and Poland, we find an average willingness to pay at 3.7% of earnings for sick pay coverage and 4.6% for paid annual leave. Preferences, however, differ sharply by motivation: pushed workers are willing to forgo on average 5.3% of earnings for sick pay, and 5.6% for paid annual leave, while pulled workers' valuations are substantially lower (3.1% and 4.2%, respectively). This difference is most pronounced among workers without access to these benefits, suggesting that the absence of protections is particularly consequential for those who entered platform work under greater economic constraint. The findings indicate that the welfare impact of extending social protections to platform workers — as proposed by the EU Platform Work Directive — might depend on the share of necessity-driven workers in the platform workforce. |
| Keywords: | platform work, willingness to pay, discrete choice experiment, social protection, job quality |
| JEL: | J32 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18967 |
| By: | Marcut Mirela (European Commission - JRC); Rodriguez Müller Paula (European Commission - JRC); Reimeris Ramojus (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Experimental governance helps administrations manage uncertainty and complexity by mobilising actors, experimenting in safe spaces, coordinating across boundaries, balancing competing interests, and institutionalising lessons learned. Strong governance and innovation performance are closely linked. Regions with higher quality of government attract more innovation funding and produce better outcomes, underscoring the role that public sector capacity plays in innovation ecosystems. Case studies show experimental governance in practice, revealing how different policy contexts shape which functions are prioritised and how they interact. Recommendations include developing tools to empower public administrations to engage in experimental governance: support for experimental clauses, developing sharing repositories, developing internal staff capacity to engage in innovation |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147951 |
| By: | Shunsuke Imai; Koshi Nishida; Yuta Okamoto |
| Abstract: | Many policies assign treatment according to whether a score crosses a cutoff. Regression discontinuity (RD) designs identify the effect of treatment assignment, but the threshold policy itself may also reshape individuals' incentives, inducing behavioral responses that affect outcomes even holding treatment status fixed---a channel that conventional RD designs cannot capture. We develop a framework that exploits randomized variation in policy thresholds, together with rank-invariance-type restrictions, to identify the treatment-assignment and incentive-response effects. We illustrate the empirical relevance of this distinction using data from a merit-based scholarship experiment in Malawi. In this illustration, the conventional RD estimate is positive, while the incentive-response effect is negative and more than twice as large in magnitude. These findings suggest that threshold policies may generate unintended adverse behavioral responses, potentially reflecting discouragement induced by demanding thresholds, and caution against relying solely on conventional RD estimates when evaluating threshold policies. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.02938 |
| By: | Sonia S. Siraz (EM - EMLyon Business School); Björn Claes (The Open University (United Kingdom, Milton Keynes) - OU); Julio O. de Castro (IE University (Spain, Segovia)) |
| Abstract: | Contested business practices are often difficult to evaluate because they send multiple, often conflicting signals about their appropriateness. Some cues may suggest that a practice is useful, legal, or widely accepted, whereas others may suggest that it is risky, harmful, or socially opposed. Existing legitimacy research has typically examined validity cues through source-based classifications, namely, authorization and endorsement, and has more often considered such cues in isolation than as part of wider evaluative arrangements. This study shifts the analysis of validity cues from source-based to type-based classifications by focusing on cues corresponding to four major legitimacy types: normative, pragmatic, regulatory, and cognitive. It argues that when evaluators confront multiple validity cues simultaneously, propriety judgments depend not only on the presence of those cues but also on their relative weight, on whether they are consistent or contradictory, and on whether they align with evaluators' personal values. These dynamics are examined in the context of fracking through four heterogeneous cues: public opinion, economic impact, regulatory setting, and venture longevity. Using conjoint analysis in a novel application to microlevel legitimacy research, the study analyzes 3, 952 evaluations by 247 participants in France and Spain. Findings show that evaluators assign different weights to type-based validity cues, with economic impact exerting the strongest influence, followed by public opinion and regulatory setting. We introduce cue congruence to legitimacy theory, defined as the extent to which multiple validity cues convey aligned evaluative signals about the legitimacy of a subject, and show that positively congruent combinations generate higher propriety judgments, negatively congruent ones generate lower judgments, and incongruent combinations generate more intermediate ones. Moreover, we introduce cue-value congruence, that is, whether cue combinations align with evaluators' personal values, and show that evaluators high in environmentalism are less influenced by cues that conflict with their values. The study therefore explains how legitimacy judgments emerge from multiple cues considered jointly and shows that conflicting cues generate intermediate propriety beliefs, consistent with a gray area between clear legitimacy and clear illegitimacy at the microlevel. |
| Keywords: | Cue congruence, Cue-value congruence, Environmentalism, Legitimacy, Propriety, Validity cues, Contested business practices, Contested legitimacy, Conjoint experiment |
| Date: | 2026–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05766409 |
| By: | Sandro Provenzano |
| Abstract: | North-star metrics such as customer lifetime value are often too slow and noisy to decide a short A/B test. Teams therefore rely on a proxy metric, commonly chosen by how closely its effects tracked the north star's across past experiments. Validating that choice, or any method for making it, is hard: the only benchmark is the noisy north star, and the number of available past experiments is limited. In addition, proxy and north-star effects are estimated on the same customers, so their sampling errors are correlated. Recent work at major experimentation platforms removes this shared error as contamination, improving estimates of the true-effect covariance. Choosing a proxy, however, is a ranking problem, and a better estimate need not give a better ranking. We measure agreement free of shared error by estimating the two effects on disjoint random halves of each experiment's customers. In an archive of 262 experiments and 69 candidate proxies, the shared error ranks the candidates in a similar order to this agreement (Spearman correlation 0.65): it carries information about proxy quality. The more of it a correction removes, the worse the ranking because removal discards part of the signal but leaves the main sources of ranking noise, the noisy north star and the limited number of experiments, untouched. Archive-calibrated simulations, in which the correct ranking is known, confirm this even when every correction receives the true sampling covariance. Held-out real experiments, evaluated on disjoint customer halves so that shared error cannot bias the comparison, closely reproduce the predicted ordering (Spearman correlation 0.93). Correction can still pay off with more experiments, but the number needed rises steeply with the north star's noise. We map this crossover and give platform teams three inexpensive checks for deciding from their own archive whether and how strongly to correct. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.08194 |
| By: | John List |
| Abstract: | The Perry Preschool Project was an experiment conducted from 1962 to 1967 to test how high-quality early childhood education could affect the IQ of at-risk African American children from low-income families in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Graduation, earnings, and crime all moved. Rates of return of 7–10% reshaped policy. But Perry was a product of its era: one treatment, one site, a small sample, and 40 years of waiting before the evidence crystallized. It could tell us that early investment works. It could not tell us why it works, which components matter, or how to deliver them at scale. To fill this gap, Professor List and his team began their own study in 2008, randomizing children in Chicago Heights, Illinois, into a series of interventions and applying a battery of assessments aimed at understanding the mechanisms through which early childhood education affects human capital formation over the life cycle. In these slides, we go through the results of this experiment and put into perspective the lessons learned from this modern Perry Preschool Project. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00840 |
| By: | Fernando, A. Nilesh; Singh, Niharika |
| Abstract: | We examine how information about local labor market conditions shapes search and employment outcomes for Indian job seekers. Participants were randomly shown information about either job postings, job applicants, or both from a popular job portal for their preferred city and occupation. Treated respondents are more likely to be employed seven months later. This overall effect varies considerably by baseline employment status. Among the initially employed, treatments reduce search off the portal and increase employment, with suggestive evidence of higher persistence in baseline jobs. In contrast, among the initially unemployed, treatments increase search activity but do not raise employment. Employment gains are concentrated among job seekers with less optimistic beliefs about labor market conditions. These findings suggest that limited information about labor market fundamentals may contribute to job churn in lower-income countries. |
| Keywords: | India;job search;online job portals;outside options |
| JEL: | O12 J20 D83 |
| Date: | 2027–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140998 |
| By: | Francesco D’Acunto; Dimitris Georgarakos; Geoff Kenny; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | Standard macroeconomic theories assume that representative or heterogeneous agents share a common model of how the economy operates. Yet evidence shows that households hold heterogeneous subjective models---distinct beliefs about how macroeconomic variables interact. As a result, identical shocks or policies may elicit different responses from otherwise similar households. We test this hypothesis by measuring subjective models and investigating their role in the transmission of monetary policy to consumption embedding randomized controlled experiment in a large-scale, multi-country survey. Consumers who believe that monetary tightening primarily operates through its effects on borrowing or savings rates plan to reduce consumption more in response to randomly assigned rate increase scenarios. By contrast, those who think about inflation or general equilibrium effects adjust consumption less. These differences are not explained by demographics, financial characteristics, including mortgage holdings and mortgage type, or country-level factors. Households' actual consumption responses to endogenous policy-rate changes exhibit broadly similar patterns. Our findings stress that heterogeneity in subjective models is an overlooked determinant of monetary policy transmission. |
| JEL: | D15 D91 E21 E43 E52 E71 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35831 |
| By: | Nicole Immorlica; Brendan Lucier; Yaroslav Mukhin; Clayton Thomas; Ruqing Xu |
| Abstract: | We often learn from multiple sources that convey information in different ways. How informative is it to know the source of a signal, and how is this informativeness shaped by the distribution of sources? We extend the standard (binary-state, binary-signal) Blackwell experiment model by introducing a commonly known distribution over signaling schemes, representing the distribution of information sources. We compare learning under two information models: source-aware, where decision makers observe a signaling scheme and its realization (e.g., raw reviews, search results), and source-blind, where only the signal realization is observed (e.g., aggregate ratings, LLM-generated summaries). We show that a mean-preserving spread in the distribution of signaling schemes translates into Blackwell dominance for source-aware decision makers, implying they are "risk-loving" in information sources. In contrast, it has no impact on source-blind decision makers. When learning from repeated draws of signaling schemes, source-blind decision makers learn more slowly. However, as long as the average signaling scheme is $\varepsilon$ away from being completely uninformative, source-blind learning can match source-aware learning by using at most $O(1/\varepsilon)$ times more data. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.33214 |
| By: | Jason Abaluck; Leila Agha; David C. Chan Jr |
| Abstract: | Medical guidelines translate clinical evidence into treatment rules, but the evidence may identify treatment benefits more clearly than harms. We study anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, combining randomized trials with Veterans Health Administration data. Trial evidence reveals substantial heterogeneity in stroke-prevention benefits but does not reliably identify how treatment-induced bleeding harms vary across patients. In the target population, patients with larger predicted stroke benefits also have higher untreated bleeding risk, making this ambiguity consequential. We evaluate existing guidelines and develop maximin and minimax-regret treatment rules robust to alternative harm structures. At a benchmark preventing 50% of preventable strokes, robust rules induce 33-41% fewer bleeds than random treatment and outperform existing guidelines. Finite-sample uncertainty generates noticeable instability in fine patient rankings but little instability in treatment assignments or welfare. Physician performance and the relationship between guideline adherence and skill also depend substantially on assumptions about how treatment-induced bleeding harms vary across patients. |
| JEL: | C44 D81 I11 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35798 |