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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo |
| Abstract: | This paper explores an information intervention designed and implemented within a school assignment mechanism in Mexico City. Through a randomized experiment, we show that providing a subset of applicants with feedback about their academic performance can enhance sorting by skill across high school tracks. This reallocation effect results in higher completion rates three years post-assignment. We further integrate the experimental evaluation into an empirical model of school choice and educational outcomes to assess the impact of the intervention for the overall population of applicants. Information provision is shown to increase the ex-ante efficiency of the student-school allocation, while congestion externalities are detrimental for the equity of education outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Subjective expectations; Information provision; School choice |
| JEL: | D83 I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19238 |
| By: | Andries, Marianne; Bianchi, Milo; Huynh, Karen; Pouget, Sebastien |
| Abstract: | In an investment experiment, we show variations in information affect belief and decision behaviors within the information-beliefs-decisions chain. Subjects observe the time series of a risky asset and a signal that, in random rounds, helps predict returns. When they perceive the signal as useless, subjects form extrapolative forecasts, and their investment decisions underreact to their beliefs. When they perceive the signal as predictive, the same subjects rationally use it in their forecasts, they no longer extrapolate, and they rely significantly more on their forecasts when making risk allocations. Analyzing investments without observing forecasts and information sets leads to erroneous interpretations. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19239 |
| By: | Cockx, Bart; Egebark, Johan; Van Hoye, Greet; Videnord, Emilie; Vikström, Johan |
| Keywords: | Autonomous and controlled motivation, job search, supportive and controlling, large-scale RCT, low-cost intervention, field experiment, backfiring, self-determination theory |
| JEL: | A12 D01 D91 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2026002 |
| By: | Gabriel Z. Tourek; Arthur Laroche; Augustin Bergeron; Joana Naritomi; Jonathan L. Weigel; Marina Mavungu Ngoma |
| Abstract: | Progressive taxation is central to high-income countries' tax systems, but developing countries typically rely on less progressive instruments. We study the introduction of progressive property taxation in a large Congolese city through a citywide field experiment conducted in partnership with the provincial government. Neighborhoods were randomly assigned to a progressive or a proportional schedule. The progressive schedule increased revenue by 56% relative to the proportional one. Gains occurred throughout the property value distribution: at the top, higher statutory rates mechanically raised revenue despite modest compliance losses; at the bottom, lower rates induced compliance gains large enough to offset lower liabilities. Cross-randomized information treatments show that taxpayers responded primarily to their own rates, not to others' rates or to the perceived fairness of the overall schedule. Effective tax rates – taxes paid as a share of property value – declined with property value and were most regressive under the progressive schedule. However, after a progressive schedule was scaled up citywide in subsequent years, targeted enforcement among high-value properties reversed this pattern, aligning statutory and effective rates. Together, the results suggest that progressive property taxation can raise fiscal capacity in low-income settings and, when paired with targeted enforcement, further shift the tax burden onto wealthier property owners. |
| JEL: | H0 O10 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35536 |
| By: | Guillermo Cruces (University of Nottingham); Diego Fernandez Meijide (Universidad de San Andres); Sebastian Galiani (Tulane University); Ramiro Galvez (UTDT); Maria Lombardi (UTDT) |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) widen or narrow productivity gaps across workers? We study this in a randomized online experiment with 1, 174 adults aged 25-45 who completed a workplace-style problem-solving task with or without a generative AI assistant, followed by an unassisted module. AI improves performance for all participants, but gains are larger among those with less education. Without AI, higher-education participants outperform lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations; with AI, the gap falls to 0.139, closing about three-quarters of the initial difference. Chat logs show that lower-education participants obtain substantial assistance, while higher-education participants use AI more effectively. Gains are not purely due to delegation: treated participants do not perform worse once AI is removed, and lower-education participants retain part of their improvement, although a sizable gap re-emerges. Intensive AI use raises assisted performance regardless of participants' own effort, but follow-up performance improves only when intensive use is combined with sustained effort. Generative AI narrows effective productivity differences in task execution, while human-capital differences continue to shape unassisted performance and tool use. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.04198 |
| By: | Max Cytrynbaum |
| Abstract: | We study how fast experimental designs can approach the semiparametric efficiency bound in finite samples, as measured by the excess variance of unadjusted treatment effect estimation. We prove an impossibility theorem: under weak conditions, no design can approach the variance bound uniformly over smooth outcome models unless covariate dimension $d \ll \log n$. Even in experiments with thousands of units, this permits only a handful of covariates. Motivated by this, we propose new designs based on discrepancy minimization that instead attempt to control imbalances over restricted-complexity nonparametric function classes. Such designs achieve fast rates to their corresponding restricted efficiency targets, permitting $d \ll n$ covariates in an additive nonparametric specification. They can also be combined with matching to protect against unmodeled outcome variation. In simulations calibrated to 12 published experiments, our designs reduce variance relative to matched pairs randomization in every empirical setting. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18057 |
| By: | Beatrice Braut; Mariele Macaluso; Vincenzo Mollisi |
| Abstract: | Quiet quitting reflects a form of worker disaffection that operates along the intensive margin of labor supply rather than through job exit. We study how alternative workplace narratives shape workers' behavioral responses using a randomized survey experiment on a representative sample of employees in Italy and France. Respondents are exposed to empirically grounded moral framings of work emphasizing either social justice and collective rights or work organization and employment practices. We find that moral framings reallocate behavior across margins: justice-oriented narratives increase detachment while reducing passive disengagement, whereas organization-centered framing generates no systematic effects. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.27538 |
| By: | Kelsey Moran; Gail M. Rosenbaum; Amir Goren; Michelle N. Meyer; Christopher F. Chabris; Joseph J. Doyle Jr. |
| Abstract: | Financial incentives may encourage vaccination, but their cost-effectiveness depends on targeting patients who are most responsive. We conducted a randomized controlled trial with 57, 579 adult patients in an integrated health system during the 2021–2022 influenza season. Patients with an upcoming appointment were randomized to a no-contact control, a simple reminder, a $1 cash incentive, or a scratch-off lottery ticket incentive worth up to $5, 000. Any active intervention increased vaccination at the scheduled appointment by 2 percentage points (an 8% increase over the control mean) and by 1.5 percentage points over the full influenza season. The three active arms did not differ significantly, indicating that small financial incentives provided no additional benefit beyond a reminder. Using electronic health records and area-level characteristics, we used causal forests to estimate conditional average treatment effects. Predicted responsiveness varied substantially: patients in the top quartile were 3–4 times more likely to respond to incentives than those in the bottom quartile, whereas reminder effects were relatively homogeneous. These findings suggest that low-cost reminders can increase influenza vaccination, while machine-learning methods can help identify patients most responsive to small financial incentives. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35537 |
| By: | Brooks, Matthew; Nakamura, Shotaro; Weigel, Colin |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404454 |
| By: | Sariman, Sevval Buse; Caputo, Vincenzina |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404502 |
| By: | Gockel, Christine; Strohsal, Till |
| Abstract: | We study how inflation expectations can be anchored through different forms of communication and whether such anchoring survives political change. Using a two-wave panel RCT around the 2025 German federal election, we show that providing the ECB's target and projections lowers expectations by about 100 basis points. We then introduce a teaching-style intervention explaining the ECB's institutional role using simple language and an intuitive metaphor, which proves equally effective. Treatment effects persist through the election, and partisan polarization remains modest. Our results suggest that well-designed communication - combining quantitative information with clear explanations of institutional responsibility - can durably anchor beliefs even in changing political environments. |
| Keywords: | elections, anchoring, inflation expectations, central bank communication, survey experiment, randomized controlled trial (RCT) |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E52 D84 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:342441 |
| By: | Michael McMahon (University of Oxford, CEPR); Matthew Naylor (Bank of England, University of Oxford); Ryan Rholes (University of Mississippi); Peter Rickards (Reserve Bank of Australia, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We examine how central banks can effectively communicate forecast uncertainty in a two-part experimental study. Part I tests how different visual media – fan charts, dot plots, box-and-whisker plots, speedometers, and ranges – communicate uncertainty to both the general public and expert audiences. We find that fan charts are well understood and perform best at jointly conveying both expectations and uncertainty. Part II implements a novel dynamic information experiment with 1, 600 UK participants across four stages, examining the effects of uncertainty communication on expectations and uncertainty perceptions over time. We find that while point forecasts anchor expectations marginally more than fan charts initially, forecast errors significantly de-anchor expectations, particularly for ‘unlucky’ errors that move inflation away from target. Critically, fan charts materially mitigate this de-anchoring, acting as an ‘insurance policy’ that helps protect central bank reputation. We also document that the public consistently underestimates the degree of uncertainty, and that communicating uncertainty via fan charts helps the public learn more realistic uncertainty perceptions. Our findings have important implications for central bank communication strategies. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication;forecast uncertainty;fan charts;expectations;anchoring |
| JEL: | C91 D83 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023318 |
| By: | Duarte Gonçalves (University College London); Terri Kneeland (University of Calgary); Andreas G. B. Ziegler (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The off path plays a key role in theoretical models of strategic interaction, yet, empirically, little is known about choices and beliefs off path. Using a novel experimental paradigm where off-path behaviour is well identified and mistakes are rare, we document three findings. First, participants overestimate mistake probabilities and overreact to payoff differences. Second, although off-path moves strongly predict subsequent deviations, participants underinfer from them when forming beliefs about later choices. Third, underinference is strongest among participants assigning low probability to off-path moves. They are perfection believers: following an off-path move, they continue ruling out subsequent deviations. |
| JEL: | C72 C92 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260062 |
| By: | Sydnee Caldwell; Emily Oehlsen |
| Abstract: | We use randomized pay experiments among Uber drivers, paired with a natural experiment in access to a competitor, to examine how outside options shape labor supply to the firm. When hours are flexible, the firm-specific labor supply elasticity combines a market-hours component and a firm-substitution component. Access to a single competing platform nearly doubles drivers’ firm-specific elasticity and cuts the implied monopsony markdown from 68% to about 50%. The same experiments identify sex differences: women are about twice as elastic to the market as men, yet no less elastic to their employer. |
| JEL: | J2 J20 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35626 |
| By: | Ghidoni, Riccardo; Suetens, Sigrid; Yang, Jierui |
| Abstract: | Experiments are conducted to investigate the effect of the decision mode on reciprocation in a one-shot trust game. Trustees either decided directly whether to reciprocate after observing their partner's choice or according to a contingent response plan made before observing their partner's choice. The main finding is that trustees were more likely to reciprocate under contingent decision making than under direct decision making. This reciprocation gap was not present when trust decisions were the outcome of a lottery, thus not made by trustors, which suggests that reciprocation choices must be the outcome of a commitment to reciprocate. |
| JEL: | C70 C90 D70 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19248 |
| By: | Cristina Cattaneo; Daniela Grieco; Nicola Lacetera; Mario Macis |
| Abstract: | We conducted a survey experiment with over 8, 000 participants in Germany, Hungary, and Italy to examine how information about the economic impact of immigration affects the support for more open immigration policies. Respondents who received projections showing higher future incomes under more open immigration policies reported greater support for these policies. The treatment also partly changed how prior attitudes affected policy preferences. Structural estimates suggest that majority support for immigration above current levels would require annual per-capita income gains of about 1.2% in Italy and 1.7% in Germany, and still larger or unattainable gains in Hungary. These increases are large relative to recent historical growth rates, suggesting that economic benefits alone are unlikely to generate vast support for more open immigration policies. |
| JEL: | C99 D02 D64 D91 F22 J15 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35509 |
| By: | Benjamin E. Radoc, Jr. (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes (University of the Philippines School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The important role of expectations in intertemporal decision making has long been recognized but disagreement among economists on how expectations are formed persists. We conducted an online learning to forecast experiment to determine the impact of uncertainty (in terms of market volatility and number of players) and anchoring (or a non-binding target price band) on the quality of price forecasts. We find that forecast errors are significantly higher in more volatile markets; lower in the presence of a non-binding price bandwidth, suggesting an anchoring effect on expectations; and lower in later markets, confirming the importance of learning and e xperience. Employing a two-step system generalized method of moments, we further confirm these results, and also find that players make systematic forecast errors, in contrast to what is predicted by rational expectations hypothesis. |
| JEL: | C91 E31 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202504 |
| By: | Zihao Li |
| Abstract: | We study the comparison of binary statistical experiments in large samples where information is acquired sequentially and the number of observations can depend on realized evidence. We introduce two orders. Stopping dominance compares experiments by their ability to reproduce the outcomes of arbitrary stopping policies, while decision dominance compares their value in finite decision problems with costly observations. Our main result shows that the two orders coincide and are characterized by coordinatewise dominance of the two directed Kullback--Leibler divergences. Moreover, strict dominance implies eventual strict value dominance in every decision problem in which learning the state can change the optimal action. The key result behind this characterization is an exact simulation theorem: any binary target experiment can be generated from repeated observations of a source experiment with expected sample sizes attaining the two KL lower bounds up to an additive constant that depends only on the source. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.19897 |
| By: | Gwen-Jiro Clochard |
| Abstract: | For decades, intergroup contact has been considered one of the most important tools for reducing prejudice and improving intergroup relations. This paper meta-analyses the experimental literature on the contact hypothesis. The analysis is based on 209 outcomes from 61 papers, involving more than 30, 000 people. The main finding is that contact interventions are effective in reducing prejudice, with an average effect of approximately 0.3 standard deviation and few instances of backlash. However, I identify several worrying signs of publication bias and p-hacking, although these do not impact the significance of the main result. I also find substantial heterogeneity in contact effects, but the characteristics of contact interventions considered in the literature have limited power to explain this heterogeneity. In particular, the common-goals condition, often emphasized as beneficial, is negatively correlated with effect size, although this relationship is descriptive. An analysis using external participants and Large Language Models also reveals considerable diversity in how contact interventions satisfy the conditions emphasized in the literature. Overall, the findings suggest that while contact interventions can reduce prejudice, the evidence currently provides limited guidance on which types of contact are most effective, highlighting the need for experiments that directly manipulate contact characteristics and for a better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms underlying contact effects. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1319 |
| By: | Daniel Lopez Garcia; Robert D. Metcalfe; Andrew R. Schein; Yixin Sun |
| Abstract: | As renewable generation plays a growing role in the energy system, periods of negative wholesale electricity prices are becoming increasingly common and are expected to grow dramatically over the next ten years. Traditionally, system operators respond by paying generators, especially renewables, to curtail production, or mandating that they do so without compensation. In this study, we propose and test a novel alternative: exposing consumers to free and negative prices to stimulate demand when supply is abundant. We implemented large-scale nationwide natural field experiments simultaneously in Great Britain and Spain, with roughly 60, 000 residential customers in each country randomized to receive varying financial incentives to “turn up” their electricity. We found that demand increased substantially as prices fell to zero, but paying customers to consume beyond zero price yielded little additional response. Households with electric vehicles and rooftop solar had a larger elasticity than households without such technologies, suggesting demand turn-up becomes more effective as households adopt low-carbon technologies. In Great Britain, consumption was largely shifted from adjacent hours, while in Spain the increase appeared to represent net new demand. We develop a welfare framework showing conditions under which demand turn-up improves on curtailment; we find that by inducing additional consumption in periods and locations where the marginal cost of supply is low, demand turn-up generates welfare gains that curtailment leaves uncaptured. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35530 |
| By: | Jessen, Lasse J.; Köhne, Sebastian; Nüß, Patrick; Ruhose, Jens |
| Abstract: | Using survey experiments in the United States and Germany with about 12, 000 participants, we study perceptions of socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy and policy demand. Respondents overestimate the rich-poor gap in both countries, judging the life expectancy of the rich roughly accurately but placing that of the poor well below its true level. These misperceptions vary little with political orientation or other characteristics. Correcting them shifts concern but leaves policy demand largely unchanged across general, specific, and real-stakes measures. Instead, demand divides politically, sharply in the United States and much less in Germany, consistent with views about the role of government rather than the inequality itself shaping policy demand. |
| Keywords: | health care, information treatment, socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy, survey experiment |
| JEL: | D72 D83 H53 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:343096 |
| By: | Tullio Jappelli; Luigi Pistaferri |
| Abstract: | Using a randomized survey experiment in the Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations, we study how observability and commonality shape responses to a €1, 000 employer bonus. Making an idiosyncratic bonus observable to coworkers lowers the marginal propensity to consume by 3 percentage points. Conditional on observability, extending the bonus to all coworkers raises it by 6 percentage points. Under a social-interactions model, the latter effect implies a social-interaction parameter of 0.16 and a multiplier of 1.2. Thus, consumption responses depend not only on resources but also on whether income shocks are private, public, or shared within a salient peer group. |
| JEL: | C8 C99 D12 D14 D15 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35575 |
| By: | Benjamin E. Radoc, Jr. (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Karl Robert L. Jandoc (University of the Philippines School of Economics); Majah-Leah V. Ravago (Ateneo de Manila University) |
| Abstract: | Past studies reveal that forward markets reduce prices and mitigate market power. However, these results are conditional on the ability of sellers to leverage arbitrage opportunities in spot (real-time) and forward (period-ahead) markets. To investigate this further, we conducted a laboratory experiment to examine the impact of alternative forward market microstructures on the market for a non-storable commodity (i.e., electricity). Contrary to the standard theoretical prediction that forward markets narrow price differentials across stages, offer and clearing prices are persistently higher in the period-ahead stage in a market for a non-storable commodity. Among the forward market microstructures considered in this study, short selling yields the highest offered quantities (as a proportion of capacity) and the lowest average prices. Forward markets with dominant players reinforced higher clearing prices and disproportionately increased earnings of dominant participants. Overall, our findings suggest that forward markets, while potentially stabilizing prices and expanding trading opportunities, do not necessarily guarantee pro-competitive or welfare-improving outcomes in a market for a non-storable commodity like electricity. |
| JEL: | D22 D47 L11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202520 |
| By: | Bhargava, Saurabh (New York University); Hyde, Timothy (Department of Economics, Oberlin College) |
| Abstract: | We study risky choice in a field setting where employees choose among goal-reward contracts resembling financial lotteries and where we observe both choices and beliefs. We find risk aversion and choice heterogeneity far exceeding expected utility predictions and unexplained by prominent behavioral motives like overconfidence, nonlinear decision weights, and loss aversion. We propose and experimentally validate a heuristic explanation for risk taking involving contingency neglect during pairwise evaluation. The heuristic fits the field and lab data better than leading alternative models, uniquely predicts the belief distortions and framing effects we document, and offers a potential explanation for empirical insurance puzzles. |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxv:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Giovanni Immordino; Mario Macis; Immacolata Marino; Fabrizio Panebianco |
| Abstract: | When a new technology promises large private benefits but may impose social costs that markets do not price, demand need not reveal how citizens want it governed. We examine this using a nationally representative U.S. survey experiment (N=5, 556) on human enhancement technologies (HET). The experiment randomizes benefit domain, mechanism, heritability, purpose, and risk across vignettes; for each respondent’s assigned vignette, we elicit stated adoption, preferred regulation, and ethical and societal concerns. Overall, about 53% would adopt. Framing the technology as enhancing rather than restorative lowers adoption by about five percentage points, as much as a severe side-effect profile. About 28% would not adopt at any benefit. This refusal is driven overwhelmingly by the enhancing framing rather than by risk, consistent with a non-compensatory constraint for a substantial subgroup. Most who would adopt still favor strict regulation, and most who would never adopt do not wish to forbid others from doing so. Productivity enhancement generates the most ethical concern of any attribute but attracts the least regulation, and respondents favor subsidizing rather than taxing its adoption, consistent with a concern about access rather than safety. Private demand is therefore an unreliable guide to the governance citizens want, and the divergence we document provides a basis for regulators seeking to align the direction of technical change with societal values and priorities. |
| JEL: | D63 D81 I18 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35495 |
| By: | Jacob K. Goeree (School of Economics, University of New South Wales); Luke Lindsay (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Xavier Del Pozo (Innovation Process Technology AG) |
| Abstract: | Virtually all producers, most notably airlines and electricity generators, face avoidable fixed costs that cause non-convexities in production. Standard bilateral trading institutions such as the continuous double auction produce inefficient and unstable outcomes in the presence of avoidable costs. We design a package market that allows traders to submit schedules of quantity-contingent bids. In an experiment, we compare two continuous double-auction formats to two schedule-based variants. The new mechanisms substantially outperform the continuous double auctions, both in efficiency and in preventing seller losses. Efficiency is highest when schedules can be revised in continuous time. The mechanisms that allow sellers to express non-convex costs restore efficiency in markets where bilateral trading institutions fail. |
| Keywords: | market design, experiments, package markets, avoidable costs |
| JEL: | D47 L19 |
| Date: | 2026–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2611 |
| By: | Ricardo Alonso; Monica Martinez-Bravo; Gerard Padró I Miquel; Carlos Sanz; Silvia Vannutelli |
| Abstract: | Clarity of responsibility is an essential element of political accountability. We develop a rational model of Bayesian updating in the presence of ambiguous attribution and we test its predictions using an original survey. We show that respondents’ partisanship, assessment of public healthcare quality, and beliefs over which layer of government is responsible for healthcare are correlated as predicted: good-assessment voters attribute responsibility to the layer governed by their preferred party, while bad-assessment voters blame the layer governed by the party they dislike. These partisan patterns of credit and blame, often interpreted as evidence of motivated reasoning or partisan bias, can thus arise from rational Bayesian updating under attribution ambiguity. No such partisan patterns exist where the same party is in charge of regional and central government. A survey experiment in which we inform subjects of the official quality of healthcare has them update in the predicted, partisan, direction. Model and empirical results show that partisan priors are extremely hard to dislodge when attribution is ambiguous. |
| JEL: | D83 H19 H49 H7 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35550 |
| By: | Zequn Jin; Gaoqian Xu; Zixin Yang; Zhengyu Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies quantile treatment and spillover effects in network experiments. Average spillover effects reveal how treating a unit's neighbors affects its outcome on average, but mask the heterogeneity of these effects across the outcome distribution. We define structural quantile effects that compare outcome quantiles between exposure states, characterizing how own treatment and exposure to treated neighbors affect different parts of the outcome distribution. Building on \citet{leung2020treatment}, we first establish the weak convergence of the estimated quantile-effect process under conditions requiring the stabilization of the degree distribution and the network-dependent covariance structure. Our main contribution is to propose uniform confidence bands (UCBs) based on Gaussian approximations conditional on the realized network, avoiding these stabilization requirements. The proposed method is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a randomized savings-account experiment in Nepal \citep{prina2015banking}. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.22286 |
| By: | Edith Prat (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how temporal structures shape creative processes in teams by distinguishing between structural time, interactional dynamics, and subjective temporal experience. Drawing on rhythmanalysis and team temporal dynamics, we examine how imposed temporal constraints and perceived time influence both individual and collective creativity. Using a between-subjects experimental design (N = 171), participants were assigned to four conditions manipulating time pressure (constrained vs. relaxed) and guidance (guided vs. unguided). Measures included individual and collective flow, temporal climate, cognitive load, perceived creativity, and expert-rated creativity. Results indicate that structural conditions did not significantly affect collective flow or creative outcomes. However, perceived time significantly influenced individual flow, temporal climate, and perceived creativity. Correlation analyses further revealed that collective flow is the strongest predictor of perceived creativity, while objective creativity measures were not associated with subjective experience. These findings highlight a dissociation between structural and lived temporalities and suggest that creativity in teams is driven less by imposed time constraints than by interactional and experiential rhythms. The study contributes to a process-oriented understanding of creativity by integrating temporal coordination and rhythmanalysis perspectives. |
| Keywords: | Temporal dynamics, Flow experience, Rhythmanalysis, Team coordination, Online collaboration, Collective creativity |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05719918 |
| By: | Gilian R. Ponte; Alina Ferecatu |
| Abstract: | Firms perform online experiments with multi-armed bandits to personalize what consumers are shown while balancing exploration and exploitation. However, third-parties can infer consumers' underlying segments from observing which banners, ads, or recommendations consumers receive. To control this inference, we propose a privacy risk budget that firms can set ex ante to bound such third party belief updating using differential privacy. To spend this privacy risk budget, we propose two strategies: a constant privacy risk strategy and a dynamic privacy risk strategy that spend privacy risk differently across visitor. We study how privacy risk budgets affect experimentation performance in two applications--website design and a recommendation system--under these strategies. For both strategies, we analytically find privacy risk budgets that optimally balance exploration and exploitation. We then extend the idea of an experiment-level privacy risk budget to a firm-wide privacy risk budget. We apply this firm-wide privacy risk budget in an empirical setting with 78 experiments. We find that the dynamic strategy is particularly valuable in longer and more complex experiments, and that optimizing the allocation of a firm-wide privacy risk budget across experiments substantially improves learning performance. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.19944 |
| By: | Putri, Kadek Tania Mediana; Mahahari, Ni Wayan; Dewi, Dewa Ayu Putu Satrya; Suryaningsih, Ni Putu Aryati; Setiawan, Putu Yudhistira Budi; Darmawan, Kadek Hendra |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Balancing high efficacy against significant toxicity risks a central challenge in biologic therapy selection for chronic diseases. This systematic review evaluated discrete choice experiments (DCEs) of patient preferences for biologic therapy to identify the treatment attributes that most consistently influence patient choice. Methods: MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, and Web of Science were searched (PROSPERO CRD420251271716) for Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) evaluating patient preferences for biologic therapies. Two reviewers independently screened eligible studies, extracted study characteristics and treatment attributes, evaluated methodological quality using an ISPOR-based quality assessment instrument, and identified the two most important treatment attributes reported in each study. Results: Twenty-four studies (2010-2025), most published after 2020, met inclusion criteria across a range of chronic diseases, most frequently psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. Of 173 attributes identified, 61% were outcome attributes, 34% process, and 5% cost. Patients most often prioritized the risk of serious adverse events, followed by treatment response; process features gained importance when efficacy and safety differences were minimal, and cost carried greater weight where out-of-pocket expenditure was higher. Twenty-three of 24 studies achieved the maximum ISPOR score of 9/9 Conclusions: Patient preferences in biologic selection follow a clear hierarchy determined by perceived risk, expected benefit, and treatment context. Incorporating these preferences into shared decision-making might improve treatment alignment and long-term patient adherence. This evidence supports patient-centered care and counseling at the initiation of treatment. |
| Date: | 2026–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mhjz5_v1 |
| By: | Brice Corgnet (EM - EMLyon Business School); Camille Cornand (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE) - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nobuyuki Hanaki (UOsaka - The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the influence of trading institutions on emotional arousal and bidding behavior through a series of behavioral and physiological experiments involving an investment task. In line with the competitive arousal hypothesis, we show that market institutions exacerbate the emotional arousal associated with winning bids, especially when buying an asset leads to substantial earnings. The market treatment exhibits stronger overbidding and bubble dynamics than baselines that use a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism. Treatment differences disappear for investors who exhibit no base rate emotional arousal. Our study shows that emotions are an important mechanism for understanding market outcomes and suggests designing new trading institutions to mitigate competitive arousal and subsequent overbidding in markets. |
| Keywords: | Competitive arousal, emotions and risk, feedback, trading institutions |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05724504 |
| By: | Dennis W. Carlton; John List; Allan Shampine; Hal Sider; Theresa Sullivan |
| Abstract: | The Federal Trade Commission ("FTC") brought an antitrust lawsuit against Meta in 2021, claiming that Meta's acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp had allowed it to monopolize a relevant market for apps providing "Personal Social Network Services" and that consumers had been harmed because the acquisitions allowed Meta to increase ad loads imposed on Facebook and Instagram app users. However, the FTC's market definition was not based on quantitative evidence and its assertion of harm ignored the two-sided nature of the Meta platforms, which makes it impossible to determine whether a merger would increase ad loads based on theory alone. In contrast, Meta's economic experts used modern theoretical and quantitative tools of economic analysis to address market definition and competition issues. This paper summarizes the field experiment, natural experiments, and related quantitative analyses presented by Meta's economic experts that demonstrated the FTC's market definition excluded apps that were closer substitutes to Meta's apps than the included apps. The paper also summarizes the results of a demerger simulation that accounted for the two-sided nature of apps and was based in part on the results of the field experiment. That analysis demonstrated that the FTC's claim that the acquisitions had led to increased ad load was not supported by the data. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00839 |
| By: | Asioli, Daniele; Balcombe, Kelvin; Fraser, Iain |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404722 |
| By: | Akinwehinmi, Oluwagbenga; Colen, Liesbeth; Caputo, Vincenzina |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404517 |
| By: | Michael King (Trinity College Dublin); Paolina Medina (University of Houston); Benjamin Radoc, Jr. (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Roland Umanan (Trinity Impact Evaluation Unit) |
| Abstract: | Digital credit—short-term, high-interest loans offered via mobile channels—has surged over the past decade, reaching millions in the developing world. However, much like payday loans in developed economies, it remains unclear whether its liquidity benefits outweigh the risks of overindebtedness and financial distress. Using an online discrete choice experiment with digital credit users in the Philippines, we examine how disclosures about price and non-price attributes affect consumer choice. We find that standardizing contract terms across products leads consumers to choose loans with lower interest rates and higher probability of approval at the expense of longer time to disburse and higher documentation requirements. Presenting interest rates in effective (compounded) or nominal terms makes no difference but ranking by a selected attribute leads to a more favorable product choice. Typical consumers are responsive to disclosures about late payment fees but not overconfident consumers. We argue that overconfidence can reduce the effectiveness of attention-based interventions and consumers’ revealed risk profiles. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 G41 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202509 |
| By: | Martinez, Sebastian; Mecerreyes, Cristina; Sanchez-Decotto, Manuela; Vidal, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | Low levels of household sewerage connectivity constitute a pervasive challenge in low-income, peri-urban settings, limiting the potential benefits of sanitation systems. The situation calls for better understanding of what drives households decisions to invest in sewerage connections. This paper tested a multi-component communication campaign that combined broadcast messaging, “edutainment” activities, and personalized outreach. The intensive 11-week campaign was randomly assigned to a subset of 31 neighborhoods in the city of El Alto, Bolivia. The effects on a sample of over 1, 300 households that were not connected to the sewerage system at baseline were then measured. The intervention increased household sewerage connection rates by 11.2 percentage points over 16 months, a 26 percent improvement relative to the control group. Treated households also reported better-quality connections. These results underscore the potential effectiveness of behavioral change strategies delivered through communication and edutainment campaigns to influence sewerage connectivity. |
| Keywords: | Sanitation;sewerage;connectivity;edutainment;communication campaign;behavioral change;Rural and Urban Development |
| JEL: | O12 I15 H54 Q56 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14714 |
| By: | Thiel, Zarah; Gonzalez-Gordon, Ivan; Löschel, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Scaling of renewable energy (RE) delivers global mitigation and local co-benefits, such as enhanced energy security. Narratives and policies in the energy transition differ in their advocacy of international cooperation or competition, reflecting different priorities in securing co-benefits for one's own country or others. We conduct a pre-registered information provision experiment with 4, 000+ representative respondents in Germany and Spain analyzing two novel determinants of locational mitigation preferences: moral universalism-altruism towards strangers versus in-group members- and economic narratives about the energy transition. In our 2x2 design, treatments manipulate the location-home versus developing country-of required investments in renewables and resulting cobenefits. We identify a universalism gap, underpinning the moral universalism literature: universalist individuals show stronger support for foreign RE projects than communitarians. While co-benefit narratives shift average policy preferences, they do not close this moral divide in preferences, even under narratives targeting communitarian audiences. Despite notable differences between Germany and Spain with respect to their technical and institutional environment to scale RE, the effects of the narratives and the association between moral universalism and policy preferences are consistent across both countries. Overall, our results indicate that moral foundations strongly shape locational mitigation preferences, and that communicating positive spillovers to the home country from RE investments abroad is an effective narrative to build support for climate transfers. |
| Abstract: | Der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien (EE) trägt weltweit zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels bei und bringt lokale Zusatznutzen mit sich, wie beispielsweise eine verbesserte Energiesicherheit. Die Diskurse und politischen Strategien im Rahmen der Energiewende unterscheiden sich darin, ob sie internationale Zusammenarbeit oder Wettbewerb befürworten, was unterschiedliche Prioritäten bei der Sicherung von Zusatznutzen für das eigene Land oder für andere Länder widerspiegelt. Wir führen ein vorab registriertes Experiment zur Informationsvermittlung mit über 4.000 repräsentativen Befragten in Deutschland und Spanien durch, in dem wir zwei neuartige Determinanten der Präferenzen für den Standort von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen analysieren: moralischen Universalismus - Altruismus gegenüber Fremden im Vergleich zu Mitgliedern der eigenen Gruppe - und wirtschaftliche Narrative zur Energiewende. In unserem 2x2-Design manipulieren die Behandlungsgruppen den Standort - Heimatland versus Entwicklungsland - der erforderlichen Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien und der daraus resultierenden positiven Nebeneffekte. Wir identifizieren eine Universalismus-Kluft, die die Literatur zum moralischen Universalismus untermauert: Universalisten zeigen eine stärkere Unterstützung für ausländische Projekte im Bereich erneuerbarer Energien als Kommunitaristen. Während Narrative zu Mitnutzen die durchschnittlichen politischen Präferenzen verschieben, schließen sie diese moralische Kluft in den Präferenzen nicht, selbst bei Narrativen, die sich an ein kommunitaristisches Publikum richten. Trotz bemerkenswerter Unterschiede zwischen Deutschland und Spanien hinsichtlich ihres technischen und institutionellen Umfelds für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien sind die Auswirkungen der Narrative und der Zusammenhang zwischen moralischem Universalismus und politischen Präferenzen in beiden Ländern konsistent. Insgesamt deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass moralische Grundlagen die Präferenzen hinsichtlich standortbezogener Klimaschutzmaßnahmen stark beeinflussen. |
| Keywords: | economic narratives, moral universalism, co-benefits, climate mitigation, renewable energy, survey experiment |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343082 |
| By: | Ricardo Perez-Truglia; Jeffrey Yusof |
| Abstract: | The rise of superstar firms has made dominant companies central to modern economic life, and antitrust enforcement is one of the main policy tools for regulating their market power. Public opinion can shape the political and regulatory environment in which antitrust enforcement takes place, yet there is little direct evidence on what drives these preferences. We conduct a pre-registered information-provision experiment with 4, 000 American households. Respondents were told about one of five real antitrust cases and randomly assigned to information treatments designed to study four potential drivers of support for antitrust enforcement: perceived market share, perceived consumer harm, perceived unfair competition, and perceived negative image. All four treatments moved the beliefs they were designed to affect, but their effects on demand for antitrust differed sharply. Information about consumer harm had the most systematic effects: it increased plaintiff support and support for break-up and conduct remedies, with effects remaining visible one month later, and also spilled over to broader support for antitrust policies. By contrast, and contrary to expert forecasts, information about market share had no meaningful effect on demand for antitrust enforcement. The findings suggest that the public thinks like economists in one key respect: they do not care about market share per se, but respond instead to consumer harm. One factor outside the core economic framework, perceived unfair competition, also matters, though its effects are more limited in scope. We discuss implications for policymakers and regulators. |
| JEL: | C90 D83 K21 L40 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35503 |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt; Arindrajit Dube; Suresh Naidu; Heather Sarsons; Niharika Singh |
| Abstract: | Union growth has historically happened in spurts. We combine union election data from 1961–2025 with a large-scale information experiment involving 9, 000 low-wage workers to study the role of social learning in union growth. Observationally, close election wins cause future wins within state-industries. Experimentally, information about recent union wins increases union support and beliefs about co-worker support, with effects concentrated among workers with weak information environments and low baseline coworker support. In contrast, information about labor market tightness has little effect. Our results highlight social learning as a mechanism for union growth. |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35571 |
| By: | Supriya Tiwari; Pallavi Basu |
| Abstract: | Analysis of experimental data becomes challenging when the underlying population is connected by a network. Exposure mapping is a common tool in the literature for defining and estimating spillover effects. These mappings reduce the dimensionality of the estimand, thereby facilitating identifiability. It is assumed that this mapping is correctly specified, leaving the choice of the exposure mapping to the analyst. This makes estimators of the spillover effect, such as the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, vulnerable to bias from model misspecification. Although these estimators have been shown to be robust to certain forms of controlled misspecification, there has been relatively little methodological progress in empirically investigating appropriate exposure mappings. In this paper, we propose a novel design-based model specification framework for causal inference. Building on this, we develop a randomization-testing procedure to assess the correct specification of an exposure-mapping model in the presence of network interference. We provide theoretical guarantees for the asymptotic validity of the proposed testing procedure. We establish the favorable power properties of our method through an extensive simulation study and illustrate it in a field experiment investigating the effect of anti-conflict norms among adolescents. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.22890 |
| By: | Simon He{\ss}; Patrick W. Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Pairwise randomization can yield substantial efficiency gains in experiments. Yet methodological guidance cautions against pairwise randomization, especially in settings with attrition, partly because common practices for estimation (i.e., pair fixed effects) imply discarding data from incomplete pairs thus exacerbating data loss from attrition. This practice of dropping incomplete pairs reduces statistical power of tests as well as precision of estimates, in paired experiments, compared to designs with less finely stratified treatment assignment. We argue that this concern is misplaced if attrition is independent of treatment status and potential outcomes, and that these issues follow from an inefficient use of the data that remains post-attrition. First, we show how, by using a specific permutation test, it is possible to use all observed units for inference (complete pairs and incomplete pairs where one unit attrits) while still exploiting the pairwise randomization design structure. The test procedure we suggest provides exact size control under the sharp null. Second, we study an optimally weighted estimator that efficiently combines within-pair and across-pair comparisons. Finally, we show that combining these two insights yields a test procedure that dominates the two commonly used inference methods (a paired $t$-test and the two-sample $t$-test) in power, for any level of attrition. Usefully for applied researchers, we show that the efficient procedure can be implemented via a weighted fixed effects regression, straightforward in standard software. In sum, our results provide researchers with practical tools for conducting experiments with pairwise randomization without sacrificing observations or statistical power when facing independent attrition. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18973 |
| By: | Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | A large experimental literature shows that when given the choice between individual per- formance incentives and competitive incentives, men are typically more likely than women to choose competition. This finding of a robust gender difference in willingness to compete has sparked much follow-up research into the causes and consequences of individual and gender differences in willingness to compete. The aim of this chapter is to summarize these different strands of research and draw conclusions on what we can learn from them. I conclude that there is strong evidence that – underlying individual differences in willingness to compete – there is a “competitiveness†trait that is not well-captured by other traits and preferences, and somewhat less conclusive evidence that there is a gender difference in this trait. Willingness to compete – and the gender gap therein – varies strongly across countries, cultures and social contexts, suggesting that it can be influenced by them. Nevertheless, while the magnitude of the gender gap varies across contexts, men are more competitive than women in most countries and settings, suggesting that biology might play a role as well. Finally, there are strong indications that individual differences in preferences for competition are economically relevant: competitiveness predicts important life choices and labor market outcomes and can statistically explain gender differences in career outcomes. |
| JEL: | D91 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260063 |
| By: | Patrick Vu; Stefan Faridani |
| Abstract: | In the empirical sciences, significance thresholds often determine whether findings are treated as evidence of an effect. This paper studies how likely findings that just meet conventional significance thresholds are to remain significant in replications of the same sample size. To answer this question, we estimate the expected replication probability conditional on a given p-value among published studies for experimental economics, psychology, and social science. We validate this measure by showing it accurately predicts actual replication outcomes, outperforming prediction markets. A finding with a p-value of 0.05 has an expected replication probability ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 across fields. Low replicability reflects low power in original studies rather than publication bias. We then develop a nonparametric estimator and apply it to economics literatures that use larger samples, finding higher but still low replication probabilities. These results indicate that statistical significance in a single study provides only suggestive evidence of an effect. Stronger conclusions require cumulative evidence. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.23257 |
| By: | Matthew O. Jackson; Benjamin S. Manning; Yutong Xie; Walter Yuan; Qiaozhu Mei |
| Abstract: | We introduce a general, easy-to-implement AI-based method for studying the structure and complexity of human behavior. We assign a large language model a ``type vector'' and then prompt it to choose actions across settings in which we observe human choices. For instance, the type vector (2, 4) becomes ``You are a player characterized by the following profile: 2 out of 5 in Altruism, 4 out of 5 in Risk Aversion, '' after which it is prompted to make choices. We vary the dimensions (e.g., Altruism, Fairness, Trust, $\dots$) and values (e.g., 1--5) to minimize distance to human choices. Applying the method to 119, 147 decisions made by 78, 657 subjects from more than 35 countries across 10 classic economic game roles, we find that human behavior can be closely matched using three dimensions: Risk Aversion, Strategic Sophistication, and Trust. Moreover, the types needed to fit individuals across games cluster into fewer than a dozen groups, and can predict behavior in held-out games with different rules and available actions. The results suggest that behavior across diverse settings can be approximated by a low-dimensional, portable representation, supporting the possibility of general yet parsimonious theories across the behavioral sciences. More broadly, the method can provide insights into the structure of many human behaviors. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18265 |
| By: | Zitian Wang; Istiak Ahmed; Patarasate Unjitwattana; Emily Yunxi Xie; Meng-Jhang Fong; Po-Hsuan Lin |
| Abstract: | How level-0 players behave and how they are perceived by higher-level players are central questions in the literature on level-k models of boundedly rational strategic reasoning. To study these twin questions, we apply the intra-team communication method developed by Burchardi and Penczynski (2014) to identify level-0 actions and beliefs in the canonical beauty contest game and in a variant of the 11-20 game of Goeree et al. (2018), in which behavior appears inconsistent with the standard level-k model. In the beauty contest game, we replicate Burchardi and Penczynski (2014)'s finding that elicited level-0 beliefs align with observed level-0 actions. In the variant of the 11-20 game, however, elicited level-0 beliefs and observed level-0 actions diverge, and both depart from the standard level-0 assumption, suggesting a complementary explanation for the behavioral pattern documented by Goeree et al. (2018). |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18069 |
| By: | Masayuki Haruhara |
| Abstract: | We study causal moderation when treatment assignment is randomized but the moderator is not. We combine the parallel estimation framework with front-door adjustment to identify an average mediated treatment moderation effect. We apply this approach to 165 municipal assembly elections in Tokyo (1987-2023), where pamphlet positions are assigned by lottery and total pamphlet pages are mechanically determined by candidate set size and fixed municipal rules. One additional candidate increases the front-page effect on winning probability by 0.322 percentage points through the page-count channel, 8.0% of its baseline magnitude, while the back-page effect does not increase significantly. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.20779 |
| By: | Andries, Marianne; Eisenbach, Thomas; Schmalz, Martin |
| Abstract: | Inspired by experimental evidence, we amend the recursive utility model to let risk aversion decrease with the temporal horizon. Our pseudo-recursive preferences remain tractable and retain appealing features of the long-run risk framework, notably its success at explaining asset pricing moments. In addition, our model addresses two challenges to the standard model. Calibrating the agents’ preferences to explain the equity premium no longer implies an extreme preference for early resolutions of uncertainty. Horizon-dependent risk aversion helps resolve key puzzles in finance on the valuation of assets across maturities and captures the term structure of equity risk premia and its dynamics. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19196 |
| By: | Mahahari, Ni Wayan; Putri, Kadek Tania Mediana; Suryaningsih, Ni Putu Aryati; Reganata, Gde Palguna; Dewi, Dewa Ayu Putu Satrya; Darmawan, Kadek Hendra |
| Abstract: | Chronic non-cancer pain is highly prevalent, and concerns about long-term opioid harms have increased interest in non-opioid therapies. Understanding which treatment attributes patients value is essential for shared decision-making. This systematic review synthesised discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to identify the treatment attributes patients prioritise when choosing non-opioid regimens for chronic non-cancer pain, and to appraise the methodological quality of the underlying studies. Following PRISMA 2020 guidance and a prospectively registered protocol (PROSPERO CRD420251273180), we searched nine databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed and the Cochrane Library). Two reviewers independently screened records and assessed methodological quality using a modified ISPOR Conjoint Analysis Good Research Practices checklist. Attributes were classified using the Sain et al. (2020) framework into outcome, process and cost categories, and synthesised narratively. Seventeen studies (1, 540 records identified) met the inclusion criteria, encompassing 109 attributes; 88% were industry-funded. Outcome attributes predominated (67.9%), followed by process (25.7%) and cost (6.4%). Clinical effectiveness was the most influential attribute, identified as the primary priority in 57.1% of studies combining all three categories, with safety acting as a key differentiator and cost as a constraint. Most studies met ISPOR standards (scores 10.5 to 12), though visual aids (71%) and direct patient input (18%) were underused. Patients prioritise clinical benefit when choosing non-opioid pain therapies, informing preference-sensitive decision-making, clinical guidelines and health technology assessment. |
| Date: | 2026–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:m8zcs_v1 |
| By: | Buser, Thomas (Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam); Cappelen, Alexander W. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Gneezy, Uri (Rady School of Management); Tungodden, Bertil (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | We provide globally representative evidence on two attitudes toward competition: individuals’ willingness to compete and the importance they attach to boys and girls being willing to compete, using a novel survey module that we fielded as part of the 2022 Gallup World Poll. The data cover more than 66, 000 individuals across 62 countries. Men are more willing to compete than women in all but two countries, and willingness to compete is higher among younger, more educated, and higher-income individuals. Attitudes toward children’s willingness to compete vary substantially across countries, with competitiveness valued more for boys in some countries and for girls in others. Both attitudes are systematically related to the economic and social environment. Individuals exposed to greater inequality or faster population growth during their formative years are more willing to compete and place greater importance on children being willing to compete. Greater exposure to gender equality during formative years is associated with smaller gender gaps in both adults’ willingness to compete and attitudes toward the competitiveness of boys and girls. Our findings reveal striking global regularities while highlighting the role of the social environment in shaping attitudes toward competition. |
| Keywords: | willingness to compete; gender; global; representative sample; socialization |
| JEL: | D91 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_011 |