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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Abebe, Girum; Brooke, Siân; Gole, Tom; Quinn, Simon; Schwantje, Tom |
| Abstract: | We conduct a field experiment within a business plan competition to examine how institutional features influence inclusive decision-making. In the control group, over the course of independent sequential assessments, evaluators become less likely to recommend female candidates. This pattern reduces the quality of their decisions – as measured by expert assessments and machine-learning methods. Informing judges of the organisation’s commitment to equal opportunity entirely offsets this decline, whereas requiring judges to justify their decisions to peers has a more muted effect. Our results show that decision fatigue can undermine both decision quality and inclusivity, but simple organisational messaging can resolve this. |
| Keywords: | Field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J16 J71 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21457 |
| By: | Dykstra, Holly; O' Flaherty, Shibeal; Whillans, Ashley |
| Abstract: | Behavioral interventions often focus on reducing friction to encourage behavior change. In contrast, we provide evidence that adding initial friction to a sign-up process can increase follow-through behavior. In a field experiment with a state department of transportation (N = 27, 227), we test whether adding modest friction during sign-up for a carpool platform increases usage. While a more effortful sign-up process leads to 25% fewer sign-ups, overall usage increases. Importantly, these results were only partly explained by selection: using an intent-to-treat analysis, participants with a more effortful sign-up process took 1.6 times more carpool trips per week over four months, leading to more overall trips despite fewer users. In a second experiment with online task work, participants with more effortful sign-up were 37% more likely to return the next day and completed more work overall. These results suggest that adding friction may be an overlooked strategy when follow-through, rather than initial uptake, is the primary goal. |
| Keywords: | intention-action gap; follow-through; effort costs; frictions; Field experiment; behavioral science; Transportation |
| JEL: | D91 C93 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21442 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sologoub, Ilona; Fedyk, Yuriy |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of more than 7, 000 Ukrainians, we study how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We document a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: while most respondents view corruption as widespread and a major national problem, far fewer report direct exposure. Through a randomized controlled trial, we find that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruption but does not reduce overall corruption perceptions. Communicating the scale of corruption alone generates no significant effects. Information treatments have little effect on hypothetical or actual donations and volunteering, suggesting a limited pass-through from changed beliefs to prosocial action. Thus, while information interventions can strengthen institutional credibility, they alone are not enough to tangibly improve civic engagement or reduce perceptions of corruption. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; beliefs; Randomized controlled trial (rct) |
| JEL: | D73 O17 O52 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21494 |
| By: | Folke, Olle; Hanson, Torbjørn; Johnsen, Åshild; Kotsadam, Andreas; Rickne, Johanna |
| Abstract: | We develop an information-based intervention against sexual harassment and test it in a randomized control trial across small groups of military recruits in the boot camp of the Norwegian military. The intervention seeks to bridge two knowledge gaps with implications for sexual harassment prevalence. We tell some recruits about their peers’ beliefs that “telling sexualized jokes can be labeled sexual harassment†and about women soldiers’ equal performance on military skill tests. This treatment gives lasting improvements in knowledge about what sexual harassment is and about women’s job performance. The impact on sexual harassment prevalence is directionally negative but statistically insignificant. We discuss measurement error and use survey responses about a harassment scenario to argue that the intervention likely affected behavior. Our study provides the first field experiment to evaluate whether a prevention method against sexual harassment reduces prevalence in a work setting. We use insights from our research process to identify methodological pitfalls and provide guidance for future field experiments in this area. |
| Keywords: | Sexual harassment; Randomized controlled trial; Information provision experiment |
| JEL: | C93 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21475 |
| By: | Cruces, Guillermo; Fernandez Meijide, Diego; Galiani, Sebastian; Galvez, Ramiro; Lombardi, María |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) reinforce or reduce productivity differences across workers? Existing evidence largely studies AI within firms and occupations, where organizational selection compresses educational heterogeneity, leaving unclear whether AI narrows productivity gaps across individuals with substantially different levels of formal education. We address this question using a randomized online experiment conducted outside firms, in which 1, 174 adults ages 25–45 with heterogeneous educational backgrounds complete an incentivized, workplace-style business problem-solving task. The task is a general (not domain specific) exercise, and participants perform it either with or without access to a generative-AI assistant. Unlike prior work that studies heterogeneity within relatively homogeneous worker samples, our design targets the between–education-group productivity gap as the primary estimand. We find that AI increases productivity for all participants, with substantially larger gains for lower-education individuals. In the absence of AI access, higher-education participants outperform lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations; with AI access, this gap falls to 0.139 standard deviations, implying that generative AI closes about three quarters of the initial productivity gap. We interpret this pattern as evidence that generative AI narrows effective productivity differences in task execution by relaxing cognitive constraints that are more binding for lower-education individuals, even though underlying skill differences remain, as reflected in persistent education gaps in task performance and in a follow-up exercise without AI assistance. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Inequality |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21299 |
| By: | Douenne, Thomas; Lee, Natalie; Treich, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Meat taxes are unpopular despite meat's environmental, health, and animal-welfare externalities. We study this opposition in a survey experiment with 3, 299 Californians evaluating a meat-tax-and-dividend policy. Respondents watch an explanatory video and receive randomized information and framing treatments targeting economic beliefs (financial incidence, distributional effects, effectiveness) and non-economic considerations (freedom, identity). Opposition is widespread and often justified by freedom and fairness concerns. Information on tax progressivity increases support, whereas information on financial impact or effectiveness does not. Freedom framing has only marginal effects, but identity priming significantly increases opposition, revealing a gap between stated concerns and the factors shaping support. |
| JEL: | C83 D72 D91 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21504 |
| By: | Lars Hornuf; Christoph Merkle; Stefan Zeisberger |
| Abstract: | We provide the first field experimental evidence on how default options influence sustainable investment choices. Using a real-world investment setting that avoids experimenter demand effects and enables realistic estimates of effect sizes, we find that setting a sustainable investment as the default increases adoption from 23% to 36% relative to a conventional default. The effect is stable over time, consistent across investor subgroups, and persists in the long run. A follow-up survey shows that both sustainable and conventional investors expect their chosen portfolios to outperform, yet few are willing to sacrifice meaningful returns for sustainability. Overall, while sustainability preferences matter, investors' decisions remain primarily driven by financial return considerations under realistic market conditions. |
| Keywords: | sustainable investing, field experiment, defaults, robo-advisor, ESG |
| JEL: | G11 G41 Q56 C93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12733 |
| By: | Paul M. Gorny; Petra Nieken; Martin Trenkle |
| Abstract: | Recruitment signals shape applicant pools. Across three studies, we examine whether genderfair (vs. generic masculine) German job titles affect application behavior and job seekers' beliefs about organizational culture. In a large-scale pre-registered field experiment, gender-fair titles increase female applications and clicks in Business & Management where priors are flexible by about 50 %. There is no average effect in categories with less flexible priors consistent with a signaling model. Eye-tracking evidence shows effects reflect belief updating, not visual salience, and an online study supports gender-fair language as a credible equality signal. We find no male backlash. |
| Keywords: | gender, labor, signaling, recruitment, bias, discrimination, gender-fair language |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12721 |
| By: | Joo Young Jeon (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Shakun Mago (Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, VA) |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive evidence on cooperation and prosocial behavior, individuals frequently engage in costly destructive actions that yield no material benefit. This paper surveys experimental literature on the Joy-of-Destruction game, a canonical framework designed to isolate such antisocial behavior. We review evidence across a range of experimental designs, treatment conditions, and subject populations, and show that destruction persists even when standard strategic, distributive, and reciprocity-based motives are eliminated. The findings suggest that such behavior is driven by a combination of intrinsic utility from harming others, belief-driven preemptive responses, and contextual pressures. Psychological traits, group identity, and environmental factors further shape destructive choices. We also examine institutional interventions that have been shown to mitigate such behavior. Finally, we compare the Joy-of-Destruction framework to related money-burning games to clarify how differences in experimental design shape the interpretation of destructive behavior – whether as intrinsically motivated or as a response to inequality and procedural concerns. |
| Keywords: | joy of destruction, money burning, antisocial behavior, nastiness, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D63 D74 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2026-05 |
| By: | Alejandra Villegas (Department of Economics, Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This article examines how social norms are enforced through evaluative behavior in the domain of unpaid domestic labor. I implement an online experiment combining an incentivized coordination task to elicit perceived community norms with a two-round dictator-type allocation task. Participants first allocate lottery tickets to a virtual recipient identified only by sex; they then allocate tickets to the same recipient after observing a domestic-work allocation that either conforms to, exceeds, or falls below the elicited reference norm. The main outcome is the within-evaluator change in transfers, which captures whether norm-relevant information induces evaluative rewards or sanctions. The results show that responses to norm deviation are relational and asymmetric. Evaluative transfers vary with the gender of the recipient, the direction of the deviation from the reference norm, and the evaluator's own normative position. In particular, allocations that reduce women's expected share of domestic work, and therefore move toward a more egalitarian division of labor, tend to elicit more negative responses when associated with male rather than female recipients, especially among evaluators with more traditional views about domestic labor. By experimentally varying norm compliance and linking it to allocation behavior, the paper provides behavioral evidence on how informal enforcement mechanisms may sustain gendered divisions of unpaid work even when egalitarian arrangements are available. |
| JEL: | J16 C91 D91 Z13 J22 D64 |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smx:wpaper:2026005 |
| By: | Ruo Jia (Peking University [Beijing]); Jiawei Mo (Peking University [Beijing]); Chang Zhang (Peking University [Beijing]); Jiakun Zheng (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Using field data from an insurtech firm and a survey experiment, this paper studies health belief formation within couples. We document a strong gender asymmetry: Women increase critical illness insurance purchases for their husbands after negative health signals of COVID-19, hospital visits, and unhealthy lifestyles but do not adjust coverage for themselves, while men do not respond to either. Experimental evidence reveals pervasive health overconfidence and shows that women update on husbands’ negative health information but not their own, whereas men update neither. The findings highlight gendered belief updating and the importance of household decision-makers in financial choices. |
| Keywords: | Health overconfidence; Motivated beliefs; Gender differences; Insurance |
| JEL: | G41 G52 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2607 |
| By: | María Cadaval-Sampedro; Santiago Lago-Peñas; Xoaquín Fernández-Leiceaga; Alejandro Domínguez-Lamela |
| Abstract: | How do citizens evaluate complex public policies when information is limited, and responsibility attribution is unclear? This paper examines the causal impact of source cues on attitudes toward subnational fiscal policies and the extent to which political alignment conditions citizens’ responses. Using an original survey of 1, 501 adults in Galicia (Spain) we implement two randomized survey experiments that vary the attribution of identical policy statements across technocratic and partisan sources. The experiments cover two policy domains that differ in complexity and opinion crystallization: policy evaluation for improving public spending efficiency and a reform of the regional fiscal framework. Results show that source cues significantly shape opinion formation, primarily by reducing uncertainty and activating partisan reasoning. Their effects are modest when citizens hold well-defined prior preferences but become substantially stronger in complex and unfamiliar policy domains. Moreover, responses are systematically conditioned by political alignment: individuals are less supportive of proposals associated with opposing parties and more supportive when the same proposals are endorsed by their preferred party. These findings provide new evidence on the role of source cues as mechanisms of uncertainty reduction and preference formation in multilevel governance settings. |
| Keywords: | Source cues, Motivated reasoning, Partisanship, Survey experiments, Fiscal federalism, Public opinion |
| JEL: | D72 D83 H77 D91 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ida:wpaper:wp2613 |
| By: | Esteban Casanelles, Teresa; Gonçalves, Duarte |
| Abstract: | How do incentive levels affect strategic behaviour? We address this question with an experiment that separately identifies own- and opponent-incentive effects in two dominance-solvable games that differ in strategic complexity. Higher own incentives favour more strategically sophisticated actions and increase best responding to stated beliefs. Beliefs shift in a parallel direction and participants expect more sophisticated opponent actions. Furthermore, while higher own incentives increase belief accuracy, opponents with higher incentives are harder to predict. Higher incentives also increase response times, and longer response times are associated with better performance and more sophisticated actions and beliefs. Taken together, the evidence suggests that incentives affect strategic behaviour through two main channels: by reducing payoff-dependent mistakes and by increasing the effort devoted to reasoning, with the returns to that effort shaped by strategic complexity of the environment. |
| Keywords: | Incentives; Belief formation; Behavioural game theory; Response time |
| JEL: | C72 C92 D83 D84 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21338 |
| By: | Lopez, Carolina; Pineda, Astrid Camille |
| Abstract: | Most students in developing countries receive grade-level instruction despite lacking prerequisite skills, a mismatch that widens learning gaps as students progress. This paper reports evidence from a randomized controlled trial across 38 classrooms and 1, 333 ninth-grade students in the Dominican Republic, in which classrooms were randomly assigned to one of three arms: computer-adaptive learning (CAL) software replacing two of seven weekly mathematics hours, CAL combined with small-group tutoring, or a business-as-usual control. CAL improved test scores by 0.29–0.31 standard deviations over six months, among the larger effects documented for education technology interventions in developing countries. Adding small-group tutoring yielded no detectable improvement over CAL alone; if anything, classrooms assigned to both interventions showed smaller gains than those receiving CAL alone, though this difference is not statistically significant. Evidence on mechanisms indicates that tutoring classrooms exhibited reduced engagement with the CAL platform. These results suggest that computer-adaptive learning software can be effectively integrated into classroom instruction to improve learning at scale, but that combining multiple interventions is not guaranteed to produce additive benefits and may instead generate unintended behavioral responses that offset their effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11418 |
| By: | de Groot, Nynke; van der Klaauw, Bas |
| Abstract: | Active labor market programs targeted at older unemployed workers are often believed to be ineffective. We exploit a large-scale randomized experiment involving approximately 50, 000 older unemployed workers to evaluate an intensive job search assistance program that focuses on exploiting the social network. Participation in the program increases exits from unemployment insurance by 4.4 percentage points. Program participation reduces cumulative benefit payments by about €715, exceeding the program costs of €470. Participants compensate the reduced benefits receipt with higher earnings. We find that participants change their job search behavior according to the content of the program, and that both the trainer and the training group composition affect the program effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Randomized experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J14 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21464 |
| By: | Conlon, John; Schwardmann, Peter |
| Abstract: | We examine whether sycophantic AI advice distorts decisions. Our experiment involves 1, 500 participants in 30 decision environments spanning core domains in economics and the social sciences. Contrary to the vast majority of predictions in an expert survey we conduct, we find that AI advice depolarizes choices on average, moving participants away from their initial leanings. This depolarization arises despite the LLM being measurably sycophantic: it disproportionately offers considerations that support users’ initial leanings and uses agreeable and flattering language. Depolarization occurs across moral and non-moral, objective and subjective, strategic and non-strategic, and complex and simple tasks. Increasing sycophancy weakens depolarization, showing that sycophancy is behaviorally relevant, even if it is generally outweighed by the informativeness of AI advice. Finally, several results mitigate the concern that market forces will generate greater polarizing effects outside the experiment or in the future. On the supply side, our baseline AI’s level of sycophancy is typical of leading models, and these models are not becoming more sycophantic over time. On the demand side, participants do not prefer greater sycophancy, do not select into AI advice in tasks where it is more polarizing, and exhibit greater depolarizing effects when they are more frequent AI users outside the experiment. |
| Keywords: | Large Language Models; Advice |
| JEL: | D83 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21505 |
| By: | Shim, Myungkyu; Kim, Kwang Hwan; Lee, Myunghwan Andrew; Choi, Sangyup; Bae, Siye; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence on how fiscal news shapes households’ expectations and spending behavior. Using a new survey of ~11, 000 Korean individuals linked to automatically collected high-frequency spending data, we elicit respondents’ fiscal and macroeconomic beliefs and randomly provide them with one of five pieces of information about current public debt levels, fiscal deficits, and the government’s plans for deficit reduction. Exogenous increases in expected future public debt raise expected inflation and increase consumer spending. On the other hand, exogenous increases in expected fiscal balance raise expected output growth and have no significant effect on consumer spending. |
| Keywords: | Randomized controlled trial (rct); Government debt; Expectations; Transaction-level data |
| JEL: | E21 E3 E62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21315 |
| By: | J.M. Baland; M. Boltz; C. Guirkinger; A. Jolivet; R. Ziparo |
| Abstract: | Non-participation in household decisions is commonly interpreted as weak empowerment. We challenge this interpretation by showing that non-participation can be a strategic choice — a form of delegation — when a spouse expects the decision outcome to be sufficiently close to her preferences regardless of her involvement. We propose a model of imperfect information and derive conditions under which delegation arises in equilibrium: it occurs when the opportunity cost of participation in the decision is large compared to the preference gap between spouses. A key implication is that the spouse who receives authority may achieve lower welfare than the one who delegates. We test these predictions in two incentivized experiments conducted among couples in Belgium/France and Benin, finding strong support across both contexts. Survey evidence further confirms the external validity of the results. Our findings suggest that standard survey measures of intra-household bargaining, by conflating strategic delegation with disempowerment, may incorrectly reflect the distribution of power within households. |
| Keywords: | intra-household decisions, collective model, delegation, household experiment |
| JEL: | D13 O12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-21 |
| By: | Koch, Alexander K; Kragl, Jenny; Ming, Sijuan; Nafziger, Julia |
| Abstract: | Persistent gender gaps in self-promotion contribute to unequal labor market outcomes. In this study, we investigate how AI-assisted writing tools shape self-promotion, and, as a secondary outcome, confidence and how these effects interact with gender. For this purpose, we conducted an online experiment in China in which participants wrote self-promotion texts, provided a numerical self-promotion score and stated their confidence about how they will perform in an upcoming math and logic test. We find suggestive evidence that AI assistance reduces numerical self-evaluations. Neither gender nor the interaction between gender and AI assistance is significantly related to self-promotion or confidence. We conduct a text analysis to investigate the mechanisms behind these results. |
| Keywords: | Confidence; Gender gaps |
| JEL: | C90 D03 D83 J16 M12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21262 |
| By: | Musolff, Robin; Roth, Christopher; Zimmermann, Florian |
| Abstract: | False information often shapes beliefs even after retraction or correction. Using incentivized online experiments, we document a qualitative residue in learning from false information: False quantitative signals generate little to no belief updating, whereas false stories lead to substantial residual belief impact. This effect is robust across a range of design variants. Replacing evaluative stories with more neutral variants eliminates the residue, indicating that the valence of the qualitative information plays a central role. We provide direct evidence that false stories increase mental simulation, measured via self-reports and valence extracted from speech recordings. Respondents are also more confident in beliefs formed after false stories than after false quantitative information, despite being further from the rational benchmark. Additional experiments suggest that the effect also appears among respondents who report not being influenced by the story, consistent with stories partly shaping beliefs below conscious awareness. |
| Keywords: | Learning |
| JEL: | D83 D91 C90 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21566 |
| By: | Jonathan de Quidt; Lise Vesterlund; Alistair Wilson |
| Abstract: | Experimenter demand effects arise when participants in an experiment or survey distort their behavior in a misguided attempt to please the experimenter by confirming their research hypothesis. Experimental economists have taken the threat of demand effects seriously and have developed an array of best practices to mitigate their influence, as well as bounding techniques to assess their potential impact on inference. We provide an overview of these techniques and summarize recent empirical assessments of the potential threat of experimenter demand. Our main message is that good design is normally sufficient to address demand concerns, and that bounding approaches work well when concerns remain. Existing empirical evidence suggests that the potential impact of experimenter demand is limited. |
| JEL: | C9 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35350 |
| By: | Hagenbach, Jeanne; Saucet, Charlotte |
| Abstract: | Many economic and policy decisions require weighting the welfare of individuals living at different points in time. To examine how people approach such intertemporal trade-offs, we design an experiment in which subjects with no personal monetary stake allocate money between Strangers who differ in their participation and payment dates. This design allows us to examine intertemporal universalism, the extent to which individuals receive equal consideration regardless of their temporal location. Our results show that subjects are more generous toward Strangers who participate and/or are paid today than toward those whose participation and/or payment is delayed by 6, 12, or 24 months. In contrast, when both Strangers participate and/or are paid at different dates that all fall in the future, allocation differences largely vanish. To shed light on the mechanisms behind these results, we complement the main experiment with measures of perceived closeness to Strangers and open-ended justifications for favoritism. These complementary data suggest that temporal distance maps onto social distance: subjects feel closer to Strangers who are anchored in the present and justify favoring them by invoking their immediate needs or greater commitment. |
| Keywords: | altruism |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21469 |
| By: | Braghieri, Luca; Bursztyn, Leonardo; Fasnacht, Jan |
| Abstract: | Voting-based collective decisions are typically made either anonymously or publicly. Anonymous voting protects truthful expression but conceals individual behavior; public voting provides information about individual votes, but, when one option is socially stigmatized, it can distort participation and choices. We introduce threshold majority voting, in which voters choose a disclosure threshold determining whether and when their votes are revealed. In an experiment at UC Berkeley on the participation of transgender women in women’s sports, public voting nearly doubles abstention and reduces support for the stigmatized option. Threshold voting eliminates these distortions while revealing one-third of individual votes. |
| JEL: | D72 D82 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21485 |
| By: | Abberger, Klaus; Bibaj, Arbërim; Gersbach, Hans; Perakis, Alexis; Rathke, Alexander; Sarferaz, Samad; Walsh, Kieran James |
| Abstract: | We study how firms’ expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export prices despite falling demand. This combination of declining activity and rising prices runs counter to the standard prediction of trade models, in which tariffs reduce foreign demand and put downward pressure on exporters’ prices. The observed pattern is consistent with a destination-specific costpush mechanism, whereby tariffs raise exporters’ marginal costs through compliance burdens, logistical frictions, or reduced scale. Embedding firms’ stated price and sales expectations in a parsimonious structural pricing model, we quantify the implied cost changes and recover sector-level demand elasticities. The estimates indicate substantial heterogeneity across industries and are, on average, consistent with short-run trade elasticities from the recent literature. Moreover, we corroborate the experimental evidence using panel survey data on firms’ expectations around an unexpected U.S. tariff announcement. |
| Keywords: | International trade; Tariffs; Firm expectations; Pricing; Cost pass-through |
| JEL: | F13 D22 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21269 |
| By: | Flavio Cunha; Qinyou Hu; Yiming Xia; Naibao Zhao |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a parent-directed empathy development program for middle school students in China using a randomized trial with 2, 246 students. The four-month mobile app intervention produced short-run gains in empathy and reduced bullying but no immediate academic effects. Over the longer term, treatment students were 3.2 percentage points more likely to enter elite high schools and 2.5 percentage points less likely to miss the entrance exam. We trace these gains to improved self-beliefs and a restructuring of classroom friendship networks that reduced academic homophily, revealing a social channel of cross-productivity: non-cognitive investments can reshape peer relationships to improve academic outcomes. |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35370 |
| By: | Koonal Shah; Juan Manuel Ramos-Goñi; Nancy Devlin; Oliver Rivero-Arias |
| Abstract: | This Research Paper describes a study examining adolescent and adult responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) containing EQ-5D-Y health states in order to determine whether the two groups exhibit different preferences. This Research Paper describes a study examining adolescent and adult responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) containing EQ-5D-Y health states in order to determine whether the two groups exhibit different preferences. One of the challenges with generating an EQ-5D-Y value set is that traditional methods are cognitively demanding and may not be appropriate for younger individuals. However, asking adults to complete a valuation task from the perspective… |
| Keywords: | Clinical Outcomes, EuroQol, UK |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:grafun:002539 |
| By: | Koch, Christian; Tyran, Jean-Robert |
| Abstract: | Radical Right (RR) political parties have become increasingly radicalized on immigration across many developed countries. We study whether exposure to slanted (i.e., one-sided) news shifts policy views of RR voters on immigration in Austria. In an online experiment, participants received slanted news about the effects of immigration on the welfare state. We find that anti-immigration news further radicalizes RR voters by reinforcing extreme policy views, while slanted pro-immigration news has no de-radicalizing effect. Surprisingly, balanced news — presenting both sides — reduces radicalization. We show that balanced news coverage increases trust, thereby increasing RR voters’ receptiveness to opposing viewpoints. |
| JEL: | C90 D72 F22 H30 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21474 |
| By: | Sabrina Scherzer (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Christa Brunnschweiler (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Tiara Elgifienda (Universitas Bangka Belitung, Indonesia); Håkon da Silva Hyldmo (Department of Geography and Social Anthropology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Nanang Kurniawan (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia); Paivi Lujala (University of Oulo); Primi Putri (Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Mineral producing countries increasingly mandate corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives to mitigate negative impacts of mineral extraction through local development projects, but evidence of their effectiveness is scarce. The Indonesian Program Pengembangan dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PPM) requires mining firms to fund local development projects. However, its effectiveness is limited by low public awareness and governance issues. We run a survey experiment with 610 respondents in 35 tinmining communities to test whether information on the PPM scheme and real-world examples of projects funded through it, presented through two video treatments, enhance knowledge and impact rights perceptions and behavior regarding PPM. Our findings show that a pure information treatment (T1) has a positive impact on respondents’ beliefs that they have a right to benefit from mining revenues but reduces their likelihood of making a donation to an NGO that supports PPM project implementation. Adding examples of successful PPM projects to the information treatment (T2) further strengthens respondents perceptions of their rights to benefit and influence decision-making and also increases the likelihood that they will request more information on PPM and local development, with no impact on actual behavior. We conclude that awareness of such revenue-sharing schemes like PPM could be enhanced with tailored information but whether this would be enough to increase involvement by local communities is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | accountability, Indonesia, tin revenues, survey experiment, information treatment |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:20726 |
| By: | Lepage, Louis-Pierre; Sarsons, Heather; Thaler, Michael |
| Abstract: | There is widespread opposition to affirmative action policies. We study whether personal disappointments shape preferences for such policies. Specifically, we test whether individuals' college admissions outcomes, relative to their expectations, influence their attitudes toward affirmative action policies. Using a retrospective survey among recent White and Asian college applicants, we find that disappointed individuals — those who were admitted to fewer schools than anticipated — are relatively more likely to believe that affirmative action played an important role in their admissions outcomes, have the lowest support for affirmative action policies, and are more willing to donate to an anti-affirmative action organization. They also hold more negative views about the academic qualifications of under-represented minorities. To isolate the causal effect of "bad news" from selection, we conduct a complementary survey experiment with parents of future college applicants. We randomize whether parents receive information about their child's admissions prospects. Providing bad news to overconfident parents causes them to increase opposition to affirmative action and donate to an anti-affirmative action organization. Results suggest that some individuals attribute bad news to external factors, specifically policies that benefit out-groups. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21358 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Giustinelli, Pamela; Veronesi, Marcella |
| Abstract: | Knowledge gaps and biased beliefs concerning both climate change and climate policy represent major obstacles to the decarbonization process. Climate education may offer a scalable solution to address such obstacles. In the context of a national reform of the school curriculum in Italy, we implemented a nationwide field experiment, training thousands of secondary school teachers across thousands of schools using a staggered design. Our intervention, a comprehensive course on climate change and climate policy, goes beyond the light-touch interventions typical in the literature. Using extensive survey data, we examine how training affects teachers’ knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences and, in turn, those of students. Our study highlights important initial knowledge gaps and biased beliefs about climate change among teachers and students, and provides evidence that climate education can address them at scale. Following our intervention, teachers and students also reconsider their support for climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Climate change and policy; Field experiment; Biased beliefs; Public support; Climate education; Secondary schools |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D83 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21567 |
| By: | Nina Rapoport (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | This review examines how virtual embodiment interventions can inform economic research on inequality across social groups. These interventions, widely used in psychology and related disciplines, consist of using virtual reality to embody individuals in virtual bodies whose appearance can be experimentally manipulated. By varying key characteristics such as skin-tone, gender, or age, researchers caninduce the illusion of inhabiting the body of an outgroup member. I synthesize existing research on outgroup embodiment and provide both a practical guide to designing embodiment interventions and a critical assessment of the methodological trade-offs involved in their implementation. In addition, I discuss how combining embodimentinterventions with tools from experimental economics can serve two purposes: first, to advance research on social inequality by introducing new methods to study its socio-cognitive foundations; and second, to address open questions in the embodiment literature by testing whether “changing bodies” can change not only minds but also behavior. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Inequality; Prejudice; Identity; Virtual reality; Experimental economics |
| JEL: | C91 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2603 |
| By: | Diya Abraham (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Ondrej Krcal (Department of Economics, Masaryk University, Brno) |
| Abstract: | Participants’ willingness to give in the dictator game has been found to be very sensitive to extending their choice set so that they can also take from recipients. To reduce this choice-set effect, we make the game less abstract by permitting potential recipients to opt out of it. Across four treatments, we vary whether taking is permitted and whether recipients can opt out of the game. Results suggest that while the choice-set effect is replicated when recipients cannot opt out, it plays less of a role when recipients enter the game voluntarily. We rule out a competing reciprocity-based explanation for this result, and conclude that the modified opt-in dictator game may provide a less sensitive measure of other-regarding preferences. |
| Keywords: | altruism, dictator game, distributional preferences, vulnerability, intentions |
| JEL: | C90 D91 M54 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2026-06 |
| By: | Matthias Waldauf; Anna Dreber; Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler |
| Abstract: | In recent years, open science and metascience have made advances by reducing publication bias, applying largeteam science, and addressing reproducibility. Although both approaches are increasingly being incorporated into many scientific fields, it is unclear to what extent they are appreciated by the public. We evaluate the public’s perception of scientific findings by exposing more than 7, 500 participants from seven countries that vary in general trust in science. In this randomized experiment, participants are exposed to versions of a similar scientific result pointing toward the same conclusion: participants read about a small classical single-team study, a large sample size study, or a many-labs (many-teams) study with 21 research teams working independently. We find that in aggregate, the public considers both the many-labs and the large-sample study more credible, generalizable and relevant for society than the single-team study. Importantly, they see the involvement of many research teams and having many study participants as key advantages. Moreover, we find no statistically significant differences in perceptions of the many-labs study and the large-sample study. We also find similar results within some countries and null results within other countries, emphasizing the importance of studying these questions in different contexts. These findings underscore the importance of novel metascience and large-sample studies to improve the credibility of scientific research in the general population. It also underscores the increasing importance of communicating the benefits and findings of metascience and large-sample projects to the public. |
| Keywords: | Metascience, Open Science, Science Credibility, Science Trust, General Population |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2026-04 |
| By: | Luca Congiu (University of Insubria); Luisa Lorè (Universität Innsbruck); Mariangela Zoli (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | Despite growing recognition that image considerations underlie the adoption of secondhand goods, research in this domain has largely overlooked the possibility that different image dimensions operate through distinct channels. Using a vignette experiment on a nationally representative Italian sample (N = 10; 496), this paper disentangles the effects of three image perspectives – self-image, social image, and second-order self-image (beliefs about others’ self-image) – across four main dimensions of secondhand adoption: financial, social, environmental, and hygiene. Contrary to findings in other behavioral domains, self-image emerges as the stronger predictor of intention to adopt second-hand, with the largest gaps over social image for hygiene and social-approval dimensions and the smallest – though still significant – for environmental considerations. Within self-image, hygiene and financial considerations are the strongest correlates of adoption, while environmental consciousness is the weakest; yet it becomes relevant under other-oriented perspectives (social and second-order), suggesting it operates more as a social signal than a private value. Participants also systematically underestimate how positively others view themselves when engaging in second-hand adoption, and this underestimation depresses adoption intentions more than overestimation boosts them – a pattern consistent with pluralistic ignorance that may act as a self-reinforcing barrier to adoption. |
| Keywords: | Second-hand adoption, Self-image, Social image, Second-order beliefs, Vignette experiment |
| JEL: | D12 D83 D91 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:625 |
| By: | Daniele, Gianmarco; Martinangeli, Andrea; Passarelli, Francesco; Sas, Willem; Windsteiger, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Why do advanced democracies struggle to maintain high levels of trust? We present a theory grounded in everyday interaction among individuals. Governments rely on regulation to foster cooperation and mitigate externalities. Individuals, however, hold heterogeneous perceptions of the externality problem. As a result, regulation generates distrust toward the government, but for different reasons. Those who are more concerned about the externality blame the government for adopting rules they view as too lenient. Those who are less concerned object to being required to comply with rules they perceive as unnecessary. Regulation also shapes interpersonal trust. Once in place, rules define standards of civic behavior and become reference points for evaluating others’ actions. Interpersonal trust erodes when non-compliance is observed. The theory predicts asymmetric patterns of trust polarization, with “disobedient†groups primarily distrusting political institutions and “civic†groups mostly distrusting non-compliant individuals. It also predicts a joint decline in interpersonal and institutional trust as regulation tightens or beliefs become more dispersed. Evidence from a large survey experiment conducted in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic supports these predictions. |
| Keywords: | Regulation; Externality; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | D70 D72 H3 O52 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21462 |
| By: | Dahlberg, Matz; Lundholm, Mikael; Nordin, Mattias; Schouten, Henk |
| Abstract: | The mode of sale may affect prices not only through selling rules, but also by changing the composition of potential buyers. We study this mechanism by randomly varying the mode of sale in a three-year field experiment, conducted with the Swedish Enforcement Authority, that assigns foreclosed homes to auction or brokered sale. Assignment to brokered sales raise prices by about 15% relative to auctions. Using pre-treatment appraisals, we show that the foreclosure discount is mode-dependent: auction sales occur at a substantial discount, whereas brokered sales occur close to appraised market value. To explain why the discount arises in auctions, we develop a model in which auction participation barriers deter household buyers and create scope for resale-oriented professional buyers, lowering prices and potentially generating inefficient allocations. Historical individual-level foreclosure data support the mechanism: repeat buyers are present in auctions, purchase at larger discounts, and resell more quickly than other buyers. |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e74gp_v1 |
| By: | Joel Persson; M{\aa}rten Schultzberg; Sebastian Ankargren |
| Abstract: | Organizations and researchers show increasing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in place of human participants in A/B tests, in the hope of experimenting faster and at lower cost. We study when a treatment effect estimated on LLM outcomes recovers the effect that would have been measured on the human population of interest. Distributional equivalence between LLM and human outcomes would make any standard estimator valid but is unrealistic. We therefore develop a statistical framework that adapts surrogate endpoint theory to LLMs. The framework shows that calibrating LLM outcomes to human outcomes identifies the average treatment effect under surrogacy and comparability conditions that are jointly weaker than distributional equivalence. When these conditions fail, the effect of interest is only partially identified, and we provide diagnostics that can falsify surrogacy on historical experiments together with a bound on the worst-case bias from limited overlap. We further show that the stochasticity inherent to LLMs introduces both bias and variance, but using an average of multiple draws as the surrogate mitigates both. We illustrate the methods and theory in simulations and an application to A/B tests on Upworthy headlines. A central takeaway from our work is that the validity of LLM outcomes as surrogates can only be falsified for past treatments and never verified for new ones, so human experiments remain indispensable for novel interventions. We discuss the role of LLM choice, prompting, and temperature as design variables, and how to size human experiments for validation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.17165 |
| By: | Bardhi, Arjada; Callander, Steven |
| Abstract: | We survey a growing literature on correlated learning — how information from one choice changes beliefs about others when outcomes are correlated. The core modeling innovation is to represent the unknown mapping from choices to outcomes as the realized path of a stochastic process, most commonly the Brownian motion. We show how the framework has been applied to four canonical economic problems in which correlated learning is key but understudied: (i) search and experimentation, (ii) communication, (iii) innovation and market competition, and (iv) attribute problems. We review emerging empirical and experimental evidence on correlated learning and outline new theoretical and methodological directions. |
| Keywords: | Brownian motion |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21351 |
| By: | Ciril Bosch-Rosa (TU Berlin); Frank Heinemann (TU Berlin); Baptiste Massenot (Indepdendent Researcher); Thomas Meissner (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We study how individuals adjust consumption in response to changes in the real interest rate using a large, preregistered, within-subject survey experiment on a representative sample of the German population. Respondents evaluate hypothetical scenarios in which the real interest rate rises by five percentage points through either an increase in the nominal interest rate or an equivalent decline in inflation. While classic intertemporal choice models predict identical responses across these scenarios, we find a clear asymmetry: respondents plan sizable cuts in consumption, higher saving, and lower borrowing when nominal rates increase, yet adjust these margins much less when inflation falls. Differences in perceived wealth effects may contribute to this asymmetry, but they cannot fully explain it. Rising nominal interest rates appear to provide stronger incentives to increase saving and avoid borrowing than does declining inflation. Declining inflation is also associated with more contradictory choices, for example, reporting higher consumption and higher saving while leaving borrowing unchanged. Together, these findings suggest that respondents more readily internalize the consequences of nominal interest rate changes than of disinflation, which has implications for the design and communication of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | consumption; real interest rate; inflation expectations; survey; |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:578 |
| By: | McMahon, Michael; Petersen, Luba; Rholes, Ryan |
| Abstract: | Using over 17, 000 incentivized inflation forecasts, we provide causal evidence that environmental complexity and subjective complexity are distinct drivers of rounding in survey responses. Experimental variation in shock volatility and central-bank communication regimes shows that both channels raise forecast uncertainty and the propensity to round, with subjective complexity the dominant force — explaining 58–86% of rounding depending on horizon and specification. Survey of Consumer Expectations microdata corroborate these findings: rounding declines with survey tenure, rises with inflation volatility, and inflates measured inflation expectations by nearly 7 percentage points among inexperienced respondents. |
| Keywords: | Expectation formation; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | C91 D84 E52 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21374 |
| By: | Linnros, Evelina; Nilsson, J Peter |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-term mental health impact of an alcohol policy experiment on individuals exposed to the policy in utero. The policy lasted for 8.5 months and significantly expanded access to alcohol, especially for those under age 21. Armed with administrative data on healthcare visits, drug prescriptions, and psychological assessments and applying a triple-differences strategy, we show that prenatal policy exposure had a substantial, early, and persistent impact on the mental health of the children of young mothers. The exposed cohorts conceived just before the policy started are 16% more likely to be diagnosed with a mental condition in midlife. We find effects on common midlife conditions such as depression and anxiety, on the ability to cope with psychologically stressful situations at age 18, and on neurodevelopmental disorders that manifest in early childhood. Among individuals with predicted mental health care needs, the impact of the policy on midlife earnings is significantly lower when they reside in areas with lower barriers to accessing mental health care, with a one–standard-deviation increase in local treatment intensity reducing the negative earnings effect by about one-third. Our findings indicate that policies increasing access to mental health treatments could substantially improve labor market outcomes, even for conditions with early-life origins. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21467 |
| By: | Akhtar, Shumi; Seri, Raffaello |
| Abstract: | Wald et al. (2024) find that women are less likely than men to go after top leadership roles mainly early in their careers, not because they lack ability, but because they lack experience and confidence. Using nearly a century of U.S. political data, the researchers showed that women with little experience were less likely than men to run for high office, but this gender gap disappeared once women gained enough experience. An experiment confirmed why this happens: experience boosts women's self-confidence, which in turn makes them just as willing as men to pursue high-level positions. Overall, the study claims that giving women opportunities to gain experience is a key to close the gender gap in ambition and leadership pursuit. We first assess computational reproducibility and successfully reproduce all main results from Study 1 (Model 1 in Table 2 and robustness models in Tables S2 and S3) and all preregistered results from Study 2 using the authors' replication package, starting both from raw data and from analysis data, with no discrepancies in sign, magnitude, or statistical significance. We then conduct a robustness reproducibility analysis for Study 1 using a multiverse framework. A joint Wald test of the experience-gender interaction terms confirms the original claim, rejecting the null hypothesis of no differential effect of experience by gender (.2 (2) = 10.5313, p . 0.0052). Across alternative specifications that vary the functional form of experience (quadratic vs. dummy variables), the treatment of calendar time (linear vs. dummy variables), and the subset of years included (all vs. even years only), the main claim replicates in 15 out of the 16 tests performed. The test for which the main claim was no longer significant was that for which analyses were restricted to even election years (to address irregularities in the temporal structure of U.S. elections) and both experience and calendar year were entered as dummy variables. Study 2 was not subjected to robustness reproduction; its preregistered experimental results are computationally reproducible and match the published findings precisely. Overall, the core claim that experience closes the gender gap in political ambition is computationally reproducible and robust across most plausible specifications, with the exception being that which restricts the sample (to account for the uneven temporal distribution of elections, a critical attribute given their occurrence in uneven years) and inputs alternative specifications of both experience and calendar year. This underscores the need for more in-depth analysis in future research that extends the original study. |
| Keywords: | gender, ambition, status |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:300 |
| By: | Gabriele Camera (ESI, Chapman University); Gary Charness (UC Santa Barbara); Nir Chemeya (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | The future architecture of financial systems is a subject of contention, with centralized and decentralized governance proponents. Here we ask: would the architecture affect the quality of decision-making? We propose a game where financial network participants demarcate the ownership of claims to income. This governance task can be decentralized (shared authority), centralized (single authority), or hybrid (alternating authority). Without communication all architectures supported poor outcomes. With communication, decentralization ensured good governance and maximum profits, while centralization did not—lowering communication’s potency in promoting socially optimal decisions. This indicates there is scope for decentralization in innovating financial institutions. |
| Keywords: | decentralized finance, distributed networks, money, fintech, group decisionmaking, digital payments, currency design, validation, trusted parties |
| JEL: | D81 G3 G4 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:26-06 |
| By: | Eilat, Ran; Eliaz, Kfir |
| Abstract: | We incorporate negative reciprocity into strategic information transmission and study how a receiver’s response to perceived manipulation shapes equilibrium outcomes. We examine both an information-design environment, in which the sender can commit to an information structure, and a cheap-talk environment, in which commitment is not possible. In each setting, the receiver's behavior or preferences shift adversarially against the sender as the sender's strategy becomes less accurate. We analyze and solve these communication games in the presence of negative reciprocity, even when it generates endogenous preferences, and we characterize the novel ways in which classical results are altered. Our findings link information design to behavioral economics highlighting the implications of design-dependent preferences. |
| Keywords: | Strategic communication; Negative reciprocity; Endogenous preferences |
| JEL: | D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21360 |
| By: | Geoffrey Decrouez; Tobias Huelden; Paresh Nakhe; Dominik Prugger |
| Abstract: | Measuring the long-term opportunity cost of interventions remains a critical challenge in e-commerce A/B testing. While strategic levers (such as dynamic pricing, ranking algorithms, and promotional campaigns) trigger shifts in consumer behaviour that persist over months, operational constraints necessitate fast decision-making cycles that are typically limited to weekly experimental windows. Standard metrics like revenue and conversion are inherently short-sighted, biasing decisions toward immediate gains. We introduce Stock Lifetime Value (SLV), a stock-centric metric that captures long-term opportunity cost within short experiments by aggregating expected profit from current inventory through the end of its selling lifecycle. We develop the methodology in the context of fashion e-commerce at Zalando, where stock constraints and seasonal lifecycles make the trade off between short-term and long-term outcomes particularly relevant. SLV aggregates the expected profit from current inventory through the end of its selling lifecycle, providing a way to evaluate interventions against their true profit impact. We discuss three applications: (a) SLV efficiency as a metric for article-level and customer-level A/B tests, validated against realized 18-month lifecycle outcomes; (b) SLV as an optimization target for pricing algorithms, aligning the metric used for measurement with the objective used for decision-making; and (c) a framework for annualizing treatment effects into financial reporting metrics required by business stakeholders. While our empirical setting is fashion retail, the framework applies broadly to any inventory-constrained environment where value decays over time or interventions shift demand across periods. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.01905 |
| By: | Stöckli, Sabrina; Shen, Henry; Bartsch, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We introduce Susceptibility to Online Social Influence (SOSI) as a disposition reflecting users’ tendencies to seek information from others to reduce uncertainty and to conform to the expectations of others on social media to gain approval, enhance self-image, or avoid social disapproval. Across nine studies with 3, 075 participants from the US, China, Mexico, and the UK, we developed a robust, reliable scale to measure SOSI. Our research reveals that self-esteem is an antecedent to SOSI, while excessive social media use is a consequence. Furthermore, we identified social media user profiles based on SOSI’s dimensions. The informative dimension of SOSI also shapes how users respond to posts from different sources (e.g., known vs. unknown). Overall, the SOSI scale provides both a conceptual framework and a practical tool for examining how social influence shapes social media use. By offering a more accurate method for identifying user dispositions than traditional offline scales, SOSI scale enhances insights into behaviors unique to social media. |
| Keywords: | informative influence; measurement; normative influence; online social influence; scale development; social media |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138959 |
| By: | Janjala Chirakijja; Pinchuan Ong |
| Abstract: | Economists typically treat labor supply responses to wages and taxes as equivalent. We show that social preferences towards tax-funded government expenditures induce differences between the wage and net-of-tax rate elasticities of labor supply in canonical models. We use a large-scale vignette experiment to show that wage elasticities of labor supply are meaningfully larger than their net-of-tax rate counterparts, consistent with social preferences affecting labor supply. We show relevance for real labor market decisions by leveraging an existing elasticity of taxable income meta-analysis. Hence, models calibrated using net-of-tax rate elasticities when wage elasticities are more suitable understate individuals’ labor supply responses. |
| Keywords: | Labor Supply Elasticity; Taxation; Social Preferences |
| JEL: | J22 H24 H41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:259 |