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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Kentaro Kawato; Shosei Sakaguchi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies sample-size design for finite-population test-and-roll experiments, where a decision-maker first conducts an experiment on $m$ units and then assigns the remaining $N-m$ units to the treatment that performs better in the experiment. We consider welfare-aware sample-size choice, which involves an exploration-exploitation tradeoff: larger experiments improve the rollout decision but impose welfare losses on experimental units assigned to the inferior treatment. We show that the standard absolute minimax regret criterion can lead to implausibly small experiments by over-penalizing exploration in its worst-case objective. To address this limitation, we propose the Worst-case Marginal Benefit (WMB) rule, which compares the worst-case marginal benefit of adding one more matched pair to the experiment with the corresponding marginal exploration cost. We establish a simple rule-of-thirds benchmark. For Bernoulli outcomes, after excluding pathological cases, the WMB criterion yields the optimal sample size of $m \approx N/3$ through a Gaussian approximation. For Gaussian outcomes with a known common variance, the same benchmark arises exactly. These results provide a prior-free and practically implementable guide for welfare-based sample-size design. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.02414 |
| By: | Fang, Ximeng; Innocenti, Stefania; Vogt, Sonja (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | Scalable behavioural interventions often struggle to engage the cognitive and psychological mechanisms that underlie durable changes in preferences and habits. This study provides a proof of concept for an underexplored intervention format: edutainment through video games. Partnering with a large video game company, we develop a game that embeds educational content on sustainable food consumption into an entertaining storyline. In a pre-registered field experiment (N = 4, 034 UK adults), participants are randomly assigned to play either one of three treatment versions of the game or a control version without environmental content. Real-world food choice behaviour is measured through incentivised online supermarket tasks. Relative to the control group, treated participants select grocery baskets with 20% lower environmental impact immediately after gameplay, an effect that remains at 8–10% in a follow-up 2–3 weeks later. Behavioural change results from a combination of knowledge gains, short-term salience and preference change. Strikingly, effects were particularly persistent among subjects with low baseline sustainability. Further evidence suggests that the intervention was effective partly because it provided an enjoyable experience and affected a rich set of beliefs and attitudes, including personal norms, efficacy, and perceived social norms. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-13 |
| By: | Folke, Olle (Stockholm School of Economics); Hansen, Torbjørn (Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, FFI); Johnsen, Åshild (Oslo Metropolitan University); Kotsadam, Andreas (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research;); Rickne, Johanna (Swedish Institute for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We develop an information-based intervention against sexual harassment and test it in a randomized control trial across small groups of military recruits in the boot camp of the Norwegian military. The intervention seeks to bridge two knowledge gaps with implications for sexual harassment prevalence. We tell some recruits about their peers’ beliefs that “telling sexualized jokes can be labeled sexual harassment†and about women soldiers’ equal performance on military skill tests. This treatment gives lasting improvements in knowledge about what sexual harassment is and about women’s job performance. The impact on sexual harassment prevalence is directionally negative but statistically insignificant. We discuss measurement error and use survey responses about a harassment scenario to argue that the intervention likely affected behavior. Our study provides the first field experiment to evaluate whether a prevention method against sexual harassment reduces prevalence in a work setting. We use insights from our research process to identify methodological pitfalls and provide guidance for future field experiments in this area. |
| Keywords: | sexual harassment, randomized controlled trial, information provision experiment |
| JEL: | J16 C93 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18637 |
| By: | Gabriele Iannotta (Politecnico di Milano); Katharina Hartinger (Johannes Gutenberg University, Germany); Tommaso Agasisti (Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | The advent of commission-free trading apps has drawn millions of young, financially inexperienced users into capital markets, raising concerns about their preparedness to navigate behavioral pitfalls embedded in platform design. We evaluate two short and scalable simulation-based financial education interventions in a three-arm randomized experiment with 704 undergraduate students at an Italian university (488 completers). In both treatments, participants trade fictitious assets in an incentivized 20-round game that simulates a trading-app environment, accompanied by introductory educational content on core investment concepts. The augmented treatment additionally embeds short in-game pop-ups addressing behavioral pitfalls relevant to app-based trading, including diversification, overtrading, the disposition effect, availability bias, and herd behavior. Measured two weeks after the intervention, both treatments significantly increase financial knowledge relative to a no-intervention control group, with effect sizes of approximately 0.25-0.30 SD for the baseline Simulation and about 0.5 SD for the pop-up-augmented version. Both treatments also improve portfolio efficiency captured by a design-based Sharpe ratio computed from declared allocations, while the augmented treatment additionally increases realized in-game portfolio efficiency and revealed risk-taking during the incentivized simulation. By contrast, stated risk attitudes remain unchanged, indicating that the intervention improves how financial knowledge is translated into portfolio decisions rather than altering underlying risk preferences. |
| Keywords: | Financial education, Financial literacy, Trading apps, Portfolio efficiency, Learning-by-doing, Behavioral nudges, Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | G53 G11 G41 C93 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Maria Calle; Lucas Gortazar; Maria Hernandez-de-Benito; Claudia Hupkau; Teresa Molina-Millan; Antonio Roldan Mones |
| Abstract: | Can effective tutoring programs survive the transition from pilot to scale, and from researcher to government implementers? We address this question using a randomized controlled trial of an online mathematics tutoring program scaled from a successful pilot and implemented entirely by regional education authorities in Spain. Critically, tutoring was delivered by interim public-school teachers-qualified educators already integrated into the government's teacher registry-rather than specially recruited tutors, offering a test of whether effects persist under a lower-cost, readily scalable staffing model. Assignment to tutoring increased end-of-year grades by 0.15σ and standardized math test scores by 0.11σ - approximately one-third of the original pilot effects. Treated students also reported improved confidence in their math abilities and reduced math anxiety. An experimental socio-emotional training module for tutors improved affective outcomes but did not enhance academic gains. The findings demonstrate that online tutoring can generate meaningful benefits at scale under government implementation, while providing realistic benchmarks for the "voltage drop" policymakers should anticipate when adopting evidence-based interventions. |
| Keywords: | Online tutoring, scale-up, RCT, government implementation, mathematics achievement, socio-emotional learning |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2176 |
| By: | Bart Cockx; Johan Egebark; Greet van Hoye; Emilie Videnord; Johan Vikström |
| Abstract: | Reduced motivation among jobseekers over the unemployment spell may lead to declining job-finding rates. We report findings from a low-cost digital intervention with motivational emails aimed at enhancing and sustaining motivation and search effort among job seekers in Sweden. Using a randomized controlled trial that included 200, 720 job seekers, we evaluate both carrot messages aimed at encouraging the pursuit of personal goals and intrinsic motivation and stick messages focusing on external pressure and constraints. A large share of job seekers opened the emails, and they triggered behavioral responses. Both types of messages backfired, reducing search effort and job-finding rates. The carrot messages reduced both the number of job applications and job finding, particularly among men. One likely explanation is that these messages signal to job seekers that the Public Employment Service was less controlling than initially perceived, prompting a reduction in effort. The stick messages backfired for job seekers who, at the onset of unemployment, reported that they were motivated by an inner drive rather than by constraints. These findings underscore the challenges of motivating job seekers to actively search for jobs and suggest that low-cost digital interventions, in isolation, are inadequate and may even be counterproductive. |
| Keywords: | Job search, motivation, experiment |
| JEL: | A12 D01 D91 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26115 |
| By: | Nynke de Groot; Bas van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Active labor market programs targeted at older unemployed workers are often believed to be ineffective. We exploit a large-scale randomized experiment involving approximately 50, 000 older unemployed workers to evaluate an intensive job search assistance program that focuses on exploiting the social network. Participation in the program increases exits from unemployment insurance by 4.4 percentage points. Program participation reduces cumulative benefit payments by about €715, exceeding the program costs of €470. Participants compensate the reduced benefits receipt with higher earnings. We find that participants change their job search behavior according to the content of the program, and that both the trainer and the training group composition affect the program effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Randomized experiment, older unemployed workers, ALMP, job search assistance, social network |
| JEL: | C93 J14 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26132 |
| By: | Nickolas Gagnon; Daniele Nosenzo |
| Abstract: | We investigate preferences for engaging in or opposing discrimination, focusing on moral preferences beyond self-interest. Some individuals may oppose statistical discrimination on grounds of protected-group equality, while others may prefer it to reward groups with higher average merit. Likewise, individuals may oppose taste discrimination or assert their tastes for groups. We conduct incentivized online experiments to elicit discrimination preferences in three domains: ethnicity, gender, and LGBTQ+ status. Analyzing over 60, 000 anonymous decisions about how to pay workers, we report highly heterogeneous preferences and a paradox of meritocracy-while merit may be a reason to reject discrimination, it also justifies discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Ethnicity, Gender, LGBTQ+, Moral principles, Experiment |
| JEL: | D63 D90 J23 J31 J71 J78 K31 M52 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26125 |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah (University of Sydney); Silva Goncalves, Juliana (University of Sydney); Tymula, Agnieszka (University of Sydney); Wang, Xueting (RMIT) |
| Abstract: | Self-control, attention, and impulsivity jointly support goal-directed behavior yet are often examined in isolation with heterogeneous measures. We integrate validated self-reported scales with a hybrid, incentivized behavioral task that synthesizes two canonical experimental designs and adds novel extensions to measure these constructs in a typical work context. Using data from a preregistered four-session online study (N = 443 adults), we characterize the cross-relationships and the relationships between different measures of self-control, attention, and impulsivity and evaluate their contributions to effort allocation over time. More broadly, the study advances an emerging research program that leverages laboratory settings with well-structured economic incentives to examine the role of personality traits and cognitive limitations in economic decision making. |
| Keywords: | self-control, impulsivity, attention, measurement |
| JEL: | D81 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18646 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tione, Sarah (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tilahun, Mesfin (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Katengeza, Samson (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Trust and trustworthiness are central to economic development and are frequently studied using behavioral experiments. A concern is that such evidence often relies on student samples, raising questions about external validity. While existing studies, largely from high income countries, suggest that students represent a lower bound on pro-social behavior, little is known about whether it generalizes to low-income country contexts. <p> This paper compares trust, trustworthiness, beliefs, and reciprocity norms between large representative samples of university students and rural adults in Malawi using incentivized trustgame experiments with consistent ingroup–outgroup framing. We show that, contrary to prevailing expectations, students exhibit higher levels of trust and trustworthiness than rural adults. While social distance plays a stronger role among rural adults in form of ingroup–outgroup differences in trustworthiness, such a difference was not found for trust. Surprisingly, we found stronger reciprocity norms and more optimistic beliefs about expected returns among students. <p> Analyzing beliefs and norms as mechanisms, we find that beliefs are associated with trust, while reciprocity norms are strongly related to trustworthiness. Strong norms enhance reciprocity behavior, and especially so in the student sample. <p> Overall, the results demonstrate that assumptions about student samples do not transfer straightforwardly across contexts. In low-income countries, students may not provide a lower bound on pro-social behavior. Social distance, reciprocity norms, and beliefs about the trustworthiness of others can strongly influence cooperation. The findings underscore the value of within-country comparisons for assessing external validity and have implications for the design and interpretation of experimental evidence in development research. |
| Keywords: | Trust game; University students; Rural subjects; External validity; Norms; Beliefs |
| JEL: | C92 D01 D64 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_003 |
| By: | yoshida, ken |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether impatience measured by hypothetical monetary intertemporal choices is reflected in an observable consumption behavior, namely candy consumption. Participants first answered a series of hypothetical intertemporal-choice questions involving both monetary gains and monetary payments and then completed a candy-consumption task. Realized behavior was classified from the reported completion status at the end of the task as licking the candy to the end, biting it before finishing, or being censored after 20 minutes, while completion time was recorded from QR-code scans at the beginning and end of the task. Using a strict sample restricted to respondents who passed consistency and attention checks, we find suggestive but meaningful evidence that participants who bit the candy displayed greater impatience in monetary choices than those who licked it to the end. The average difference across all questions is modest, and the sharper contrast in some payment questions should be interpreted as exploratory. Participants who bit the candy also completed the task significantly faster. In addition, self-reported usual eating style is moderately consistent with realized behavior in the task. These findings suggest that candy-consumption behavior may serve as a behavioral indicator broadly consistent with impatience, while also indicating that it should not be interpreted as a structural estimate of an individual's discount rate. |
| Keywords: | Time preference; intertemporal choice; impatience; candy consumption; experimental economics |
| JEL: | C91 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128522 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Michele Giannola (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Michele Giannola (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/36 |
| By: | Jikai Jin; Vasilis Syrgkanis |
| Abstract: | Offline evaluation of language models from usage logs is biased when model choice is confounded: the same user-side factors that influence which model is used can also influence how its output is judged, so raw comparisons of logged scores mix self-selected populations rather than estimating a common quantity of interest. A small randomized experiment can break this bias by overriding model choice, but in practice such experiments are scarce and costly. We study a three-source design that combines a large confounded observational log (OBS) for scale, a small randomized experiment (EXP) for unconfounded scoring, and an offline simulator (SIM) that replays candidate models on cached contexts. Our main result is an identification theorem showing that the randomized experiment and the simulator are together enough to recover causal model values; the observational log enters only afterward, to reduce estimation error rather than to make the causal comparison valid. Six estimator families are evaluated in a controlled semi-synthetic validation and in two real-task cached benchmarks for summarization and coding. No family dominates every regime; relative performance depends on the amount of unbiased EXP supervision and on how closely the target reward aligns with OBS-derived structure. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.01311 |
| By: | Yang, Ying; Shi, Chengchun; Yao, Fang; Wang, Shouyang; Zhu, Hongtu |
| Abstract: | This article studies the benefits of using spatially randomized experimen tal designs which partition the experimental area into non-overlapping units with treatments assigned randomly to these units. Such designs improve pol icy evaluation in online experiments by providing more precise policy value estimators and more effective testing algorithms than traditional global de signs, which apply the same treatment across all units simultaneously. We examine both parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating and in ferring policy values based on the spatially randomized designs. Our analysis includes evaluating the mean squared error of the treatment effect estima tor and the statistical power of the associated tests. Additionally, we extend our findings to the dynamic setting with spatio-temporal dependencies, where treatments are allocated sequentially over time, and account for potential tem poral carryover effects. Our theoretical insights are supported by comprehen sive numerical experiments. |
| Keywords: | A/B testing; policy evaluation; reinforcement learning; spatially randomized design |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138333 |
| By: | Christian Koch; Jean-Robert Tyran |
| Abstract: | Radical Right (RR) political parties have become increasingly radicalized on immigration across many developed countries. We study whether exposure to slanted (i.e., one-sided) news shifts policy views of RR voters on immigration in Austria. In an online experiment, participants received slanted news about the effects of immigration on the welfare state. We find that anti-immigration news further radicalizes RR voters by reinforcing extreme policy views, while slanted pro-immigration news has no de-radicalizing effect. Surprisingly, balanced news — presenting both sides — reduces radicalization. We show that balanced news coverage increases trust, thereby increasing RR voters’ receptiveness to opposing viewpoints. |
| Keywords: | radical right voters, fiscal impact of immigration, anti-immigration views, trust in news media, online experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D72 F22 H30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12659 |
| By: | Jacob Arendt; Iben Bolvig |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the effects of an employment programme for disadvantaged unemployed individuals. The programme emphasized on-the-job training and contracting the unemployed for a few paid work hours as a stepping stone into the labour market. Evaluated through a randomised controlled trial, the programme was found to accelerate transitions into part-time work. Contrary to its intention, it permanently increased the share of participants receiving disability pensions among the most disadvantaged groups. To explain this finding, we suggest that training, while enhancing productivity for some, simultaneously provided information of employability used in the assessment of disability pension eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Unemployed, Active Labour Market Policy, Disability Pension, Immigration |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J64 D61 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26131 |
| By: | Lafleur, Jean-Michel; Marfouk, Abdeslam |
| Abstract: | Migration has become a highly contentious issue across many European countries, where initiatives to regularize the status of undocumented migrants face substantial political opposition. While public attitudes toward immigration have been extensively studied, comparatively little attention has been paid to public opinion on large-scale regularization programs (i.e., the granting of legal status) and the role of framing in shaping support for such policies. To address this gap, we conducted an experimental study to examine how different framing strategies influence public support for regularization policies in Belgium. Our results show that emotionally engaging messages and narrative presentations of factual information increase support for the regularization of undocumented migrants, especially those who are employed. From a public policy perspective, these findings suggest that framing can help policymakers build public support for regularization programs. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants, Public Opinion, Public Policy, Survey Experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1758 |
| By: | Dimant, Eugen (University of Pennsylvania); Gelfand, Michele (Stanford University); Hochleitner, Anna (Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sonderegger, Silvia (School of Economics, University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Social sanctions sustain social order by reinforcing widely accepted principles. Political polarization may weaken this mechanism by fragmenting these principles, yet causal effects are hard to identify: observational data cannot separate the effect of polarized preferences from exposure to polarization. We model theoretically and test experimentally the effectiveness of social sanctions in a representative U.S. sample (N = 2, 400) that exogenously varies environmental polarization. Participants allocate money between politically opposed recipients privately and publicly, and public allocations can be punished by partisan Observers drawn from distributions varying in their degree of polarization. With greater polarization, public allocations become less equitable because participants (correctly) expect punishment even when acting fairly. This shows that polarization causally undermines the disciplining role of social sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Equitable Behavior; Polarization; Sanctions; Social Punishment |
| JEL: | C91 D01 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_007 |
| By: | Eugen Dimant; Michele Gelfand; Anna Hochleitner; Silvia Sonderegger |
| Abstract: | Social sanctions sustain social order by reinforcing widely accepted principles. Political polarization may weaken this mechanism by fragmenting these principles, yet causal effects are hard to identify: observational data cannot separate the effect of polarized preferences from exposure to polarization. We model theoretically and test experimentally the effectiveness of social sanctions in a representative U.S. sample (N = 2, 400) that exogenously varies environmental polarization. Participants allocate money between politically opposed recipients privately and publicly, and public allocations can be punished by partisan Observers drawn from distributions varying in their degree of polarization. With greater polarization, public allocations become less equitable because participants (correctly) expect punishment even when acting fairly. This shows that polarization causally undermines the disciplining role of social sanctions. |
| Keywords: | polarization, social punishment, equitable behavior |
| JEL: | C91 D01 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12660 |
| By: | Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin); Favero, Luca (University of St Andrews); Pronzato, Chiara (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Many advanced economies face persistently low fertility alongside rapid population ageing, raising concerns about economic sustainability and demographic balance. Addressing these challenges requires both sustained labor market participation among the working-age population and conditions that support childbearing. These objectives place women, and particularly mothers, at the center of the demographic debate, as motherhood remains a key turning point in employment trajectories and family formation. Using experimental evidence from an intervention targeting mothers who curtailed employment due to childcare responsibilities, the paper finds that improving work–family reconciliation can support mothers’ labor market reintegration, promote investments in existing children, and, under conditions of greater stability, strengthen fertility desires. |
| Keywords: | work, motherhood, family friendly policies, fertility desire |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J11 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18630 |
| By: | Christos Genakos; Eleni Kyrkopoulou; Elias Papaioannou |
| Abstract: | We use a unique natural experiment in which families were randomly selected to live in the Olympic Village, constructed for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, to assess the impact of improved neighbourhood conditions on academic achievement. Comparing 12-17-year-old students who relocated and attended the new schools with non-selected applicants from the same origin schools across Attica, we find a positive, gender-neutral, and significant effect of moving on overall performance. Educational gains, primarily in language courses, are concentrated among students who previously performed poorly, indicating a "fresh start" effect. |
| Keywords: | social experiment, housing, neighborhoods, neighbourhoods, peer effects, education |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2175 |
| By: | Evelina Linnros; J. Peter Nilsson |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-term mental health impact of an alcohol policy experiment on individuals exposed to the policy in utero. The policy lasted for 8.5 months and significantly expanded access to alcohol, especially for those under age 21. Armed with administrative data on healthcare visits, drug prescriptions, and psychological assessments and applying a tripple-differences strategy, we show that prenatal policy exposure had a substantial, early, and persistent impact on the mental health of the children of young mothers. The exposed cohorts conceived just before the policy started are 16% more likely to be diagnosed with a mental condition in midlife. We find effects on common midlife conditions such as depression and anxiety, on the ability to cope with psychologically stressful situations at age 18, and on neurodevelopmental disorders that manifest in early childhood. Among individuals with predicted mental health care needs, the impact of the policy on midlife earnings is significantly lower when they reside in areas with lower barriers to accessing mental health care, with a one–standard-deviation increase in local treatment intensity reducing the negative earnings effect by about one-third. Our findings indicate that policies increasing access to mental health treatments could substantially improve labor market outcomes, even for conditions with early-life origins. |
| Keywords: | ADHD, depression, earnings, treatment barriers, prenatal alcohol, boys, FASD |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12654 |
| By: | Alex Chan; Ayush Gupta; Yetong Xu |
| Abstract: | Cadaveric organ shortages leave thousands without life-saving transplants each year. Countries differ in using opt-in (informed consent) or opt-out (presumed consent) systems for donor registration. Using newly assembled cross-country panel data and an event-study design, this paper provides evidence that presumed-consent laws increase organ donation only when strictly enforced and family veto power is limited; weak opt-out regimes show negligible or even negative effects. A theoretical signaling model provides a plausible mechanism when opt-in or opt-out yields more donations, emphasizing the roles of donation propensity, signaling costs, and the family’s ability to overturn defaults. A large laboratory experiment further tests these mechanisms, showing that opt-in generally produces equal or higher donation rates unless signaling is costly and family veto power is minimal. The results underscore that defaults alone rarely increase donations unless paired with strong institutional enforcement. |
| JEL: | C91 C92 D47 D64 H00 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35169 |