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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Federico Atzori (Sapienza University); Luca Corazzini (University of Milan - Bicocca); Valeria Maggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Filippo Pavesi (LIUC University); Massimo Scotti (LIUC University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how generative AI shapes creative performance and human-AI interaction in an open-ended writing task that employs a laboratory experiment in which participants are randomly assigned to either receive access to a large language model (ChatGPT-4.2) or not. Creative performance is measured by the average score assigned by independent evaluators recruited through the Prolific platform, and detailed logs of human-AI interaction are analyzed to measure AI use, prompting intensity, ideation requests, and the textual overlap between AI outputs and participants' final writings. Three main results emerge. First, AI access increases performance, but the gain is entirely driven by active use: participants with access who do not submit queries perform no better than those without AI. Second, the relationship between interaction intensity and performance is concave, peaking at roughly eight queries, consistent with iterative exploration rather than mechanical copying. Third, structural mediation analyses show that ideation requests affect performance primarily indirectly, by increasing downstream incorporation of AI-generated language; the direct effect of requesting an idea from the AI is negligible once execution-stage reliance is accounted for. We further document heterogeneity in AI reliance: cultural capital (proxied by books owned) predicts lower AI use, while prior AI exposure predicts higher use. By contrast, incentive schemes have limited effects on both outcomes and AI-related behaviors. |
| Keywords: | Human-AI Interaction; Creativity; Generative AI; Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D83 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:16 |
| By: | Christoph Oslislo; Frederik Schwerter |
| Abstract: | We study fundraising goals in two preregistered natural field experiments with regular donors of a large international charity (N = 109, 945 and N = 47, 864). Fundraising goals increase giving by 26%, comparable to the effect of lead donor information (17%). Combining both instruments increases giving by 42%, with effects close to additive. Variation in goal specifications, including progress levels from 9% to 91%, does not significantly affect total donations, consistent with goals operating as informational signals rather than through goal proximity. Failure to reach announced goals reduces subsequent giving by 28%. |
| Keywords: | fundraising campaigns, lead donors, field experiment, information provision, goal progress |
| JEL: | C93 D64 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12637 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski (Inter-American Development Bank); Michele Giannola (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alessandro Toppeta (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family-and school-based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17‡and 0.20‡). Combining them produces noadditional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over thetime horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are takeninto account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, andpotentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results sug-gest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint– either at home or in school – maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | numeracy, childhood development, teacher development, parental engagement, randomized control trial, Colombia |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 J13 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:781 |
| By: | Damm, Cara; Bauer, Kevin; Hett, Florian; Pelizzon, Loriana |
| Abstract: | The shift from information retrieval (keyword-based search engines) to information synthesis (generative AI) constitutes a fundamental change in how people inform themselves online. We investigate how this shift impacts investment behavior using an incentivized online experiment (N = 374), in which we vary whether participants have access to keyword-based search engines, an LLM-based chatbot, or no additional information source. We find that LLMs facilitate participation in the stock market. Participants with access to an LLM when making investment decisions are significantly more likely to enter the stock market and to remain invested compared to those with access to keyword-based search engines or no further information. Our experiment suggests that perceived difficulty of stock market participation decreases and confidence in these choices increases when using an LLM. However, we also document a substantial risk. Access to LLMs enables individuals to confirm and strengthen experimentally induced beliefs. Even when the chatbot itself is not biased, users can prompt the model to validate beliefs they want to hold. Overall, our findings suggest that while LLMs can reduce participation frictions and encourage stock market investments, their effectiveness in confirmation-seeking can also have detrimental consequences. Consequently, these results highlight the critical need for consumer protection frameworks and financial literacy programs that specifically address the unique dynamics of human-AI interaction in modern retail investing. |
| Keywords: | Large Language Models, Belief Formation, Motivated Reasoning, Financial Decision Making, Robo-Advisors, Stock Market Participation |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:340833 |
| By: | Gagnon, Nickolas; Nosenzo, Daniele |
| Abstract: | We investigate preferences for engaging in or opposing discrimination, focusing on moral preferences beyond self-interest. Some individuals may oppose statistical discrimination on grounds of protected-group equality, while others may prefer it to reward groups with higher average merit. Likewise, individuals may oppose taste discrimination or assert their tastes for groups. We conduct incentivized online experiments to elicit discrimination preferences in three domains: ethnicity, gender, and LGBTQ+ status. Analyzing over 60, 000 anonymous decisions about how to pay workers, we report highly heterogeneous preferences and a paradox of meritocracy-while merit may be a reason to reject discrimination, it also justifies discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Moral principles, Experiment, Ethnicity, Gender, LGBTQ+ |
| JEL: | D63 D90 J23 J31 J71 J78 K31 M52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340785 |
| By: | Bart K. de Koning (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Robert Dur (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Didier Fouarge (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | In a natural field experiment, we provide information to students about job opportunities and hourly wages of occupations they are interested in. The experiment takes place within a widely-used career orientation program in the Netherlands, and involves 28, 186 pre-vocational secondary education students in 243 schools over two years. The information improves students’ belief accuracy and leads them to change their preferred occupation to one with better labor market prospects. Administrative data covering up to seven years after our experiment shows that students who receive information choose and graduate from post-secondary education programs with better job opportunities and higher hourly wages. |
| Keywords: | Education choice, labor market information, field experiment. |
| JEL: | D83 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260011 |
| By: | Yuhao Fu; Nobuyuki Hanaki; Haitao Wang |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence increasingly participates in economic interactions not only as a tool, but also as an autonomous bargaining counterpart negotiating on behalf of firms, platforms, and consumers. Yet little is known about how humans respond psychologically and strategically when bargaining with such agents in dynamic settings. We study this question in a laboratory experiment using a three-stage alternating-offer bargaining game in which participants negotiate in real time with either another human or a GPT-based AI agent. We also introduce a human-beneficiary condition in which the AI agent’s earnings may affect another participant’s payment. Agreements are not reached earlier in human–human bargaining than in human–AI bargaining, but they are reached significantly earlier when the AI’s payoff has human consequences. Human proposers offer more to human opponents than to AI agents, whereas responders become significantly more willing to accept unfair AI offers when AI earnings may benefit another human. These findings suggest that fairness and reciprocity toward AI are weaker and more conditional than toward humans, but partially re-emerge when AI outcomes affect real people. The results have implications for the design of AI negotiation systems and broader human–AI economic interactions. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1311 |
| By: | Flavio Cunha; Snejana Nihtianova; Jessica Rood; Anja-Lize van der Merwe |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of parental investment in early childhood in which bandwidth-constrained parents hold distorted beliefs about the returns to responsive interaction. When capacity falls short of aspiration, motivated reasoning provides relief: the parent distorts her working belief downward, rationalizing low engagement. Distorted beliefs suppress responsive parenting, which generates no calibration evidence, which, in turn, confirms the distortion. The model identifies four channels through which interventions escape this self-sealing trap. A randomized controlled trial confirms the model's predictions on parental beliefs, measures of responsive parenting, behavioral engagement, and absence of impact on materials or placebo outcomes. |
| JEL: | C93 D83 D91 I20 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35150 |
| By: | Marco Bertoni (University of Padova); Paolo Falco (University of Copenhagen); Luigi Guiso (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) and CEPR); Tullio Jappelli (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, and CEPR); Roberto Nisticò (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We use a large-scale survey experiment in Italy to study how citizens update their beliefs about the effects of highly salient and politically contested policy reforms when exposed to scientific evidence. We find that while prior beliefs are often inconsistent with accurate scientific evidence, providing this evidence shifts beliefs towards accuracy. Crucially, belief updating is largely independent of the political alignment of media source conveying the information. This suggests that credible evidence can overcome partisan divides. |
| Keywords: | Policy misperceptions; Belief updating; Media bias |
| JEL: | D83 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:776 |
| By: | Knebel-Seitz, Caroline |
| Abstract: | Online brokers and robo advisors frequently use investment simulation tools to visualize portfolio choices and illustrate investment scenarios to their clients. I conduct a survey experiment to study whether people understand such a simulation tool. I analyze how using it might affect individual financial knowledge, confidence in financial decision-making skills, and motivation to deal with the topic of "saving and investing". In addition, an advice-giving task is implemented to test for mutual reinforcement effects. I find that even a simplified simulation tool is challenging to understand for a lot of individuals. Only those who are able to comprehend the tool are able to improve their financial knowledge related to the tool's content. A successfully completed advice-giving task boosts confidence for those with initial below-median confidence levels. Furthermore, there is a positive short-term effect on motivation. In the medium term, however, participants are rather discouraged to take further actions. Overall, this calls for the careful design and implementation of investment simulation tools, especially for less financially literate individuals. |
| Keywords: | Behavior, finance & microfinance, framing, simulation tool, giving advice |
| JEL: | C90 D14 G11 G53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:340838 |
| By: | Liu, Qi; Hanley, Nick; Yi, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jintao; Kontoleon, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes, particularly those involving tree-planting initiatives, are increasingly recognized for their great potential to mitigate carbon emissions and address climate change. Among them, Outcome-Based Payments (also known as results-based schemes) have gained attention for their cost-effectiveness and potential to improve environmental efficiency. This study examines farmers’ preferences towards participating in an outcome-based tree planting scheme using a discrete choice experiment conducted in Yunnan, China. We explicitly incorporate uncertainty in environmental outcomes, which in turn affects payment structures. We also elicit farmers’ risk perceptions through incentivized field lottery games and examine its influence on participation decisions and marginal willingness-to-accept (WTA). Based on a sample of 340 respondents, we find that farmers’ willingness to participate is significantly influenced by contract attributes, including the subsidy level, provision of training and technical guidance, environmental performance requirements, and the degree of uncertainty involved. Our findings further highlight the role of uncertainty and risk perceptions in shaping farmers’ decision-making processes in outcome-based PES. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397897 |
| By: | Florian Heine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Jasper Sluijs (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | State ownership is increasingly positioned as a policy tool for governments towards strategic autonomy and sustainability transition. A possible side effect is the creation or strengthening of dominant state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which theory suggests may engage in exclusionary (predatory) pricing. Disagreement remains, however, over the price thresholds for which exclusionary pricing should be unlawful. We run a laboratory duopoly with a dominant incumbent and a non-dominant entrant across three treatments: a private baseline market; a mixed market with an inefficient SOE incumbent (Mixed–Efficiency); and a mixed market where the SOE incumbent pursues social welfare (Mixed–Social). We measure exclusionary pricing below variable cost, below own break-even level, and above the competitor’s break-even level. We find pervasive exclusionary pricing followed by the competitor's exit in both private and mixed markets. Moreover, after exclusion monopoly pricing by the remaining competitor lowers consumer surplus and total surplus. This finding is remarkable given the professed rarity of exclusionary pricing in previous experimental research. Above break-even exclusion appears in Mixed–Social; below-cost exclusion occurs in all treatments. We observe mirrored outcomes across mixed markets: in Mixed–Efficiency the more efficient private entrant withstands exclusion and eventually displaces the SOE, whereas in Mixed–Social the SOE’s social welfare objective function supports more aggressive pricing that prompts entrant exit. These results argue for more vigilant monitoring of SOEs’ competition-law compliance and for entry-safeguarding policies when creating or strengthening dominant SOEs. |
| Keywords: | Exclusionary Pricing, Predatory Pricing, State-Owned Enterprises, Experiment, Mixed Markets |
| JEL: | C91 L13 L32 |
| Date: | 2026–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260017 |
| By: | Nainggolan, Lukas Bonar; Lansink, Alfons Oude; Rommel, Jens; Höhler, Julia |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and forestry production are inherently connected to the provision of impure public goods, yet public good provision generally remains below socially optimal levels. One promising approach to increase provision are social norms and non-binding collective agreements facilitated through cooperatives, although existing evidence on their effectiveness is mixed. We conducted a threshold public goods experiment with 141 farmers and foresters from Greece and Italy to examine the effectiveness of collective agreements and the relationship between social norms and cooperation. Our results show that non-binding collective agreements significantly increase individual contributions. We contribute to the literature by showing that not only average social norms, but also their distribution, are correlated with individual contributions, with greater heterogeneity within groups associated with lower contributions. Overall, focal points are shaped by expectations of peers’ contributions. Two key implications follow: cooperatives can effectively facilitate collective action, and managing heterogeneity among farmers and foresters is essential for sustaining cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397870 |
| By: | Chaewon Baek (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Tufts University); Vitaliia Yaremko (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | We study how workers form inflation expectations and incorporate them into labor supply decisions using experimental evidence from the U.S. online labor market. Exploiting exogenous variation from randomized information provision, we find that higher price inflation expectations do not raise reservation wages. Instead, workers lower reservation wages for multiperiod contracts, even after controlling for wage growth and unemployment expectations. These patterns are consistent with a labor search model where higher inflation expectations reduce the perceived value of future job offers, increase income risk, and induce a precautionary reduction in reservation wages. Overall, the findings suggest limited risk of wage‐price spirals. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; cross-learning; labor supply; wage-price spiral; randomized control trial |
| JEL: | E31 C83 D84 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0926 |
| By: | Gianluca Grimalda (University of Passau); Fabrice Murtin (OECD Statistics and Data Directorate); David Pipke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Louis Putterman (Brown University); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Pathogen-stress and terror-management theories predict that lethal epidemics heighten parochial cooperation. We test this prediction experimentally in two nationally representative U.S. samples surveyed before and at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare trust and expected trustworthiness across the two waves in monetarily incentivized trust games involving non-Hispanic Whites, African Americans, and Hispanics. We find significant ingroup favoritism in both waves. However, the aggregate ingroup premium fell by about one-half between waves. This decline was concentrated among left-leaning and White respondents. Conversely, both African Americans and Hispanics displayed significant ingroup bias in both waves. While non-Hispanic Whites tended to reduce their ingroup bias in expected trustworthiness, the opposite was found for African Americans. Respondents more exposed to COVID-19 displayed higher inter-group trust, altruism and expected trustworthiness than others. These results contradict the hypothesis that lethal epidemics intensify parochialism, also suggesting that the response may be diversified across groups. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Pandemic, Inter-group Relationships, Parochialism, Ingroup, Outgroup, Discrimination, Prosociality |
| JEL: | D01 D63 D91 I14 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2026_04 |
| By: | Ghorpade, Yashodhan (World Bank); Jasmin, Alyssa (World Bank); Abdur Rahman, Amanina (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Debates on gig work often treat flexibility and social protection as substitutes. This paper shows that gig workers value different forms of flexibility differently, and that preferences for flexibility and social protection can be complementary. Using discrete-choice experiments with digital freelancers in Malaysia, with standard workers as a benchmark, we examine preferences for work location and scheduling autonomy. Four findings emerge. First, gig workers strongly value spatial autonomy and are willing to pay to work-from-home. Second, preferences for scheduling flexibility are heterogeneous, with many, including freelancers, preferring fixed schedules. Third, willingness to pay for long-term protection in the form of retirement savings increases with both types of autonomy. Fourth, willingness to pay for unemployment insurance is linked only to work-location flexibility. Gig workers possibly associate remote work, but not flexible hours, with greater employment uncertainty, and therefore demand stronger protection against unemployment risks. Flexibility and protection can therefore act as complements rather than substitutes in the gig economy. |
| Keywords: | gig economy, flexible work arrangements, work-from-home, work scheduling, job amenities, social insurance, labor market risk, discrete choice experiments |
| JEL: | J31 J22 J41 J65 D81 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18589 |
| By: | Bertermann, Alexander; Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence that children's economic preferences vary systematically with parental mental health. Using experimentally elicited measures of economic preferences from more than 4, 500 children in Bangladesh, we document that children of parents with indications of mental illness are less prosocial but more patient than their peers with mentally healthy parents. Attitudes toward risk remain unchanged. We discuss potential pathways through which parental mental health may influence the formation of children's preferences, documenting that children of parents with indication of mental illness assume greater responsibilities within the family, experience less parental involvement, and are exposed to a more adverse home environment. |
| Keywords: | mental health, social preferences, risk preferences, patience, origins of preferences, experiments with children, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D10 I10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:340844 |
| By: | Sule Alan; Kumar Biswas; Christina S. Hauser; Shwetlena Sabarwal |
| Abstract: | Improving classroom behavior is a persistent challenge in low-resource education systems, where disruptive environments often derail instruction and limit learning. Yet little rigorous evidence exists on whether behavior management can serve as a lever for academic improvement. We evaluate a program that shifts responsibility for establishing behavioral norms and reducing classroom disruptions from teachers to students. Covering over 7, 500 adolescents across 127 middle schools in Bangladesh, the program significantly improves the classroom social climate, fostering stronger cooperation, better behavioral norms, and more supportive peer networks. High-performing students benefit most, showing significant gains in math and verbal tests after the program. A follow-up 1.5 years later reveals that while social climate improvements fade, academic gains persist and extend to a broader set of students, though they remain concentrated among higher-ability peers. A key mechanism is enhanced academic support networks among high-ability students, facilitating peer learning and knowledge diffusion within this group. |
| JEL: | C93 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35160 |
| By: | Langanke, Nils L.; Grunenberg, Michael H.; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the design of an agglomeration bonus influences farmers’ participation in a stylised peatland restoration scheme. Results from a discrete choice experiment with 110 farmers in Germany indicate that the bonus has only limited influence compared to land-use restrictions. In the mixed logit and latent class estimations the bonus is statistically insignificant and mostly ignored in the decision-making process. Only when preferences are adjusted for attribute non-attendance does the bonus enhance willingness to participate and the scheme’s cost-effectiveness. Overall, voluntary schemes appear insufficient for ambitious peatland restoration goals, suggesting a need to complement incentives with regulatory measures. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397892 |
| By: | Arbaaz Karim |
| Abstract: | Aesthetic qualities command measurable premiums in traditional goods markets. However, it remains unclear whether users are willing to pay for such qualities in AI-generated text. This paper estimates the willingness to pay for aesthetic attributes in large language model outputs using an online experiment with N = 117 participants. Participants evaluated responses from four anonymized models across academic, professional, and personal contexts, rated outputs along multiple dimensions, and submitted bids for access using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism. We find no statistically significant relationship between perceived aesthetic quality and willingness to pay. While participants systematically distinguish between outputs and exhibit consistent preferences over stylistic features, these differences do not translate into higher monetary valuation. Further analysis shows that aesthetic and functional attributes load onto a single latent factor, suggesting that users perceive quality as a unified construct rather than a separable aesthetic dimension. These results imply that, in current large language model (LLM) markets, aesthetic improvements function as baseline expectations rather than sources of price differentiation. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.05578 |
| By: | Abhirami Pillai |
| Abstract: | Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising: advertisers must decide which users to show ads to while spending a limited budget wisely. The standard approach follows a two-stage offline pipeline - first collect historical data to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), then solve a constrained optimization to allocate the budget. This works well with abundant data, but fails in cold-start settings such as new campaigns, new markets, or new customer segments where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget, making treatment decisions one user at a time. BCCB unifies three components into a single sequential process: learning individual-level ad effectiveness, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We evaluated on the Criteo Uplift dataset, a large-scale advertising dataset from a real randomized controlled trial. Our key finding is a data-efficiency crossover: offline methods require approximately 10, 000 historical observations to produce reliable results, while BCCB operates effectively from the very first user. Furthermore, BCCB exhibits 3-5x lower performance variance between runs, making it more practical for real campaign planning. Among purely online methods, BCCB consistently outperforms standard Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, and greedy HTE estimation across all budget levels tested. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26169 |
| By: | Ryan R. Hill; Carolyn Stein |
| Abstract: | We study how a frontier AI model affects scientific discovery by examining the release of the AlphaFold2 algorithm and its impact on structural biology and related fields of science. Structural biology is the field of science concerned with understanding the structure and function of proteins. Researchers in this field historically devoted substantial time and resources to experimentally solving three-dimensional protein structures. AlphaFold can predict these structures without running experiments. In July 2021, researchers gained access to hundreds of thousands of these AI-predicted structures virtually overnight. Yet, to date, we find that the rate of experimental structure determination has remained almost unchanged. Instead, researchers appear to use predicted structures to facilitate and complement experimental structure determination. Looking at downstream science that builds on protein structures, we find that basic research on proteins that had no structure information prior to AlphaFold increases by 15 to 40% relative to proteins that already had a structure, shifting the direction of research toward less-studied proteins. However, we find no evidence so far that more applied, early-stage drug development is targeting these proteins, though such activity may emerge in the future. |
| JEL: | I23 J24 L65 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35143 |
| By: | Sydnee Caldwell; Ingrid Haegele; Jörg Heining |
| Abstract: | We estimate firm-specific amenity valuations using discrete choice experiments embedded in a large-scale survey of German workers linked to administrative records. Workers rank hypothetical offers from real firms they would consider joining, with randomized wages identifying money-metric valuations. Valuations vary substantially across firms and demographic groups, yet a single index performs surprisingly well. Valuations are approximately orthogonal to firm wage premia; they therefore do not offset between-firm wage inequality. However, male-female differences in amenity valuations explain part of the gender wage gap. |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35149 |
| By: | Josef Simpartl |
| Abstract: | This article examines forms of direct monetary policy communication and their impact on inflation expectations and the public's perception of the central bank. To this end, an experiment was conducted in August 2024 with three groups of respondents representative of the Czech population, the first of which was exposed to a monetary policy statement, the second to a related Facebook post, and the third to no information. Respondents who were exposed to the above-mentioned texts significantly reduced their inflation expectations and the link between those inflation expectations and perceived current inflation. At the same time, their knowledge of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) improved somewhat. However, none of the groups of respondents changed their opinion on the CNB, with the exception of a slight improvement in the assessment of its communication in the case of the group exposed to the Facebook post. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, central bank, communication, social media, survey |
| JEL: | C83 D84 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2026/04 |
| By: | Soogand Alavi; Salar Nozari |
| Abstract: | Consumers are increasingly delegating purchase decisions to AI agents, providing natural-language descriptions of their preferences and identity. We argue that these representations constitute an information channel, role coherence, through which sellers can infer willingness to pay without explicit disclosure by the buyer agent, leading to preference leakage. In an experiment where a language-model buyer agent shops on behalf of a verbal consumer profile, we show that seller-side inference from dialogue alone recovers willingness to pay nearly one-for-one. Comparing this setting to a numeric-budget condition with confidentiality instructions cleanly isolates role coherence as distinct from instruction-following failure. Because this leakage arises from delegation itself, it cannot be mitigated at the prompt level. Instead, we propose architectural interventions that trade off personalization against preference privacy. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26220 |
| By: | Takuji Fueki (Hitotsubashi University); Masashi Hino (The University of Tokyo); Mitsuru Katagiri (Waseda University); Munechika Katayama (Waseda University); Taisuke Nakata (The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a survey with an information-provision experiment to examine whether households’ macroeconomic expectations are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint (GBC). Using respondents’ forecasts of the debt-to-GDP ratio, inflation, interest rates, the primary balance, and real GDP growth, we compute the discrepancy between the left- and right-hand sides of the intertemporal GBC—which we refer to as the GBC wedge. We find that the GBC wedge is dispersed and, on average, non-zero. We also find that households revise their macroeconomic expectations in response to information provision in a way that is inconsistent with the intertemporal GBC. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf625 |
| By: | Benjamin Sheehan (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan); Pramodhya Dissanayake |
| Abstract: | Construal level theory suggests that abstract versus concrete messages can influence prosocial behavior. However, results from the empirical literature remain inconclusive. This paper examines the effect of seven different sets of concrete vs. abstract messages upon prosocial behavior. This was done while holding the message context, sample characteristics, and measurement constant. The results suggest the impacts of message abstraction on attitudes, behavioral intent, and message involvement are small and vary in direction. Three of the seven studies show statistically significant differences, but an optimal framing approach does not emerge. A pooled analysis suggests no overall effect. These findings suggest that construal level effects in prosocial contexts may be sensitive to the specific way in which abstraction is operationalized. |
| Keywords: | Construal level theory, Prosocial behavior, Message framing, Abstract vs. concrete messages |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_05 |
| By: | Mzek, Tareq; Piras, Simone; Lozada, Luz-Maria; Premarathne, Mindi |
| Abstract: | Agri‑Environmental Climate Schemes (AECS) are central to Scotland’s environmental goals, but their success depends on voluntary farmer participation. This study used a discrete choice experiment to explore Scottish farmers’ preferences for AECS design. A total of 144 farmers completed an online survey, choosing between hypothetical scheme options that varied in contract duration, environmental objective, collaboration requirements, technical assistance, payment type, monitoring approach, and payment level. Data were analysed using conditional and mixed logit models. Results show that farmers are generally not in favour of having to collaborate with other farmers; the option to apply jointly was consistently viewed negatively across all models. There is some evidence that farmers prefer shorter contracts over longer ones, and that they are open to results‑based payments and schemes focused on soil health. The payment (monetary) attribute itself was not statistically significant, and its large standard deviation suggests farmers are divided on whether payments drive their choices: some respond positively and others negatively. Willingness to accept estimates should be treated with caution given the uncertainty around the payment coefficient. These findings highlight the importance of farmers’ independence and flexibility when designing schemes. The results also point to potential interest in soil health and results‑based payments, and that the payment level is not necessarily the main driver beyond application decisions. These findings can assist policymakers in understanding what truly matters to farmers when designing the AECS. By incorporating farmers’ views, they can not only encourage higher participation rates but also ensure that the schemes on offer align more closely with farmers’ actual requirements. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397890 |
| By: | Andrey Fradkin; Rohit Krishnan |
| Abstract: | Markets are a promising way to coordinate AI agent activity for similar reasons to those used to justify markets more broadly. In order to effectively participate in markets, agents need to have informative signals of their own ability to successfully complete a task and the cost of doing so. We propose MarketBench, a benchmark for assessing whether AI agents have these capabilities. We use a 93-task subset of SWE-bench Lite, a software engineering benchmark, with six recently released LLMs as a demonstration. These LLMs are miscalibrated on both success probability and token usage, and auctions built from these self-reports diverge from a full-information allocation. A follow-up intervention where we add information about capabilities from prior experiments to the context improves calibration, but only modestly narrows the gap to a full-information benchmark. We also document the performance of a market-based scaffolding with these LLMs. Our results point to self-assessment as a key bottleneck for market-style coordination of AI agents. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.23897 |
| By: | Benjamin Sheehan (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan); Pramodhya Dissanayake; Janani Kumarathunga |
| Abstract: | Prosocial behavior is essential for a functioning society. Despite increasing urbanization, the impact of population density on prosocial behavior remains unclear. Prior research offers conflicting predictions. Some research suggests that increased density might increase prosocial behavior via increased opportunities to help others. Contrasting accounts suggest that increased density decreases prosocial behavior via anonymity and competition for resources. Across two correlational designs (N = 400), the present research suggests a small, positive relationship between density and self-reported prosocial behavior. However, a third study (N = 482) which manipulates perceived density, alongside other relevant constructs, suggests that strong vs. weak social norms and high vs. low interdependence are more proximal influences of prosocial behavior, than population density itself. |
| Keywords: | Prosocial behavior, Population density, Social norms, Interdependence, Visibility |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_06 |