|
on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Burak Uras (Williams College); Niccolo Zaccaria (Tilburg University); Sigrid Suetens (Tilburg University); |
| Abstract: | "This paper investigates the impact of misconfidence on price stickiness in markets charac- terized by strategic complementarities. Misconfidence denotes the tendency of cognitively able individuals to underestimate the cognitive ability of others. In an experiment, we first measure cognitive ability and misconfidence, and then have participants make price choices in a market. We find that prices in markets with at least one misconfident participant de- viate significantly more from equilibrium levels than in markets composed exclusively of confident, cognitively able agents. Importantly, misconfident individuals are no more prone to self-assessment errors than others, indicating that misconfidence constitutes a distinct cognitive bias—fundamentally different from conventional forms of overconfidence or un- derconfidence." |
| Keywords: | Price stickiness, strategic complementarity, controlled experiments, beliefs |
| JEL: | E71 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2026_103 |
| By: | Grewenig, Elisabeth (KfW, Frankfurt); Gründler, Klaus (University of Kassel); Lergetporer, Philipp (Technical University of Munich); Potrafke, Niklas (ifo Institute); Werner, Katharina (Business School Pforzheim); Zeidler, Helen (Technical University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | Public support for policy interventions depends on citizens’ beliefs about their likely effects. We examine how individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit forecasts from 127 professional economists and a representative sample of 6, 200 German households about a large-scale behavioral experiment on education policy (N = 3, 133). Nonexperts predict both average outcomes and treatment effects far less accurately than experts. Prediction accuracy improves with calibrated priors, self-reported effort, and the use of structured reasoning, but remains well below expert levels. We show that scalable design features, including the provision of well-calibrated numerical anchors and monetary incentives to rise effort, improve non-expert predictions, with effects comparable in magnitude to tertiary education or structured reasoning. Our findings have important implications for bridging the ‘expertise gap’ in public discourse. |
| Keywords: | expert forecasts, lay predictions, belief formation, expertise gap, policy support, behavioral experiments |
| JEL: | A11 D83 H52 I22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18453 |
| By: | de Koning, Bart (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Muller, Paul (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Belot, Michèle (Cornell University); Engels, Yvonne (UWV); Fouarge, Didier (ROA, Maastricht University); Keer, Mario (UWV); Kircher, Philipp (Cornell University); Phlippen, Sandra (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, ABN Amro) |
| Abstract: | We design an online platform to connect unemployed job seekers with `buddies': former job seekers who recently found employment. We focus on job seekers who search in occupations with poor prospects and buddies who successfully switched occupations. In a randomized controlled trial, we evaluate the impact of access to the platform on labor market outcomes. We find sizable effects. Thirteen to 18 months after getting access, initially unemployed job seekers are 6 percentage points (11%) more likely to be employed and earn 226 Euro more per month than those without access. The positive impact is concentrated among the long-term unemployed. |
| Keywords: | job search, occupational mobility, randomized experiment, role models |
| JEL: | J62 J64 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18437 |
| By: | Mathieu Chevrier (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Sébastien Massoni (Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, BETA, Nancy, France) |
| Abstract: | Confidence often accompanies advice, but its usefulness depends on what confidence actually reveals. This paper distinguishes between two dimensions of confidence quality: discrimination, that is, whether confidence tracks correctness at the decision level, and calibration, that is, whether average confidence matches average accuracy. In a controlled advice-taking experiment comparing human and algorithmic advisors, discrimination is the main driver of both advice adoption and post-advice accuracy, whereas calibration plays a more limited role. Source matters only in a specific case: when discrimination is high, participants are more likely to follow overconfident algorithmic advice than equally overconfident human advice. Advice taking also varies with participants’ own metacognitive characteristics. Higher discrimination ability is associated with more conservative advice taking, while better-calibrated participants rely more on stated confidence, benefiting when advisor confidence has high discrimination and performing worse when it is miscalibrated. |
| Keywords: | Algorithm; Advice; Overconfidence; Discrimination; Laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-09 |
| By: | Melina Ludolph; Giang Nghiem; Lena Tonzer |
| Abstract: | We study how individuals' views on current and future levels of income inequality change during periods of expansionary fiscal policy. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we provide information on fiscal expansion to a representative sample of the German population. Our findings reveal that combining a fact-based (numerical) information treatment with a narrative treatment about fiscal expansion plans reduces inequality expectations among respondents who are ex-ante dissatisfied with the government's economic policy. These effects are more pronounced among respondents without a college degree or with low political interest, highlighting the importance of narrative information for individuals who are likely to benefit most from it. We explore potential mechanisms by examining revisions in macro- and micro-level assessments of future economic conditions and find that respondents primarily update their expectations regarding economic growth and individual layoff risk. |
| Keywords: | fiscal expansion, household expectations, inequality, survey experiment |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E62 H31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-19 |
| By: | Vitellozzi, Sveva; Savadori, Lucia; Davis, Kristin E.; Azzarri, Carlo; Kinuthia, Dickson; Ronzani, Piero |
| Abstract: | In several countries and settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries, men are expected to act as primary economic providers for their households, bearing the psychological and social burdens associated with this role. Despite its potential consequences, the effects of the breadwinner role on economic decision-making are understudied, particularly among poor households. This study investigates how gendered breadwinner expectations shape economic behavior in rural Kenya. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment among 400 smallholder farmers in Vihiga County, we test how psychological and social pressures associated with being the breadwinner of the family influence decision-making in both individual work choices and collective decisions. Participants completed a real-effort task choosing either a high-effort, high-reward option or a low-effort, low-reward alternative, followed by a public goods game framed around communal seed bank contributions. Results reveal that the heightened strain of the main breadwinner led male participants to reduce contributions to the communal seed bank by 0.2 standard deviations, while it did not affect their productivity in the real-effort task. These behavioral shifts suggest that the psychological consequences of breadwinner strain can undermine cooperation and the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices. Addressing the pressures of breadwinning can foster both economic resilience and social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | gender; gender norms; decision making; poverty; households; intrahousehold relations; Kenya; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180329 |
| By: | Adida, Claire; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung; Arriola, Leonardo; Matanock, Aila; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Fisher, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Women’s political participation remains persistently lower than men’s worldwide. While barriers to women’s civic engagement are well documented, there is limited causal evidence on how to effectively close gender gaps in participation. This study evaluates whether a group-based training intervention can enhance women’s engagement in local governance. In a randomized controlled trial across 300 communities in rural southwest Nigeria, we recruited 3, 900 politically unaffiliated women into newly formed women’s action committees (WACs). Control WACs received a single civic education training, while treatment WACs received five additional trainings aimed at strengthening women’s collective efficacy over the course of six months. Leveraging baseline (May–July 2023) and endline (January—February 2024) surveys alongside behavioral data from a community grants competition, we find that the intervention significantly increased both the level and quality of women’s political participation. Treated communities also exhibited greater responsiveness by local leaders to women’s needs and priorities. These findings show that group-based interventions can meaningfully and scalably narrow gender gaps in civic participation. |
| Keywords: | gender; capacity building; governance; women's empowerment; randomized controlled trials; gender-transformative approaches; political systems; women's participation; Nigeria; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180330 |
| By: | Adida, Claire; Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung; Arriola, Leonardo; Matanock, Aila; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Fisher, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Women’s political participation remains persistently lower than men’s worldwide. While barriers to women’s civic engagement are well documented, there is limited causal evidence on how to effectively close gender gaps in participation. This study evaluates whether a group-based training intervention can enhance women’s engagement in local governance. In a randomized controlled trial across 300 communities in rural southwest Nigeria, we recruited 3, 900 politically unaffiliated women into newly formed women’s action committees (WACs). Control WACs received a single civic education training, while treatment WACs received five additional trainings aimed at strengthening women’s collective efficacy over the course of six months. Leveraging baseline (May–July 2023) and endline (January—February 2024) surveys alongside behavioral data from a community grants competition, we find that the intervention significantly increased both the level and quality of women’s political participation. Treated communities also exhibited greater responsiveness by local leaders to women’s needs and priorities. These findings show that group-based interventions can meaningfully and scalably narrow gender gaps in civic participation. |
| Keywords: | gender; capacity building; governance; women's empowerment; randomized controlled trials; gender-transformative approaches; political systems; women's participation; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180330 |
| By: | Vitellozzi, Sveva; Savadori, Lucia; Davis, Kristin E.; Azzarri, Carlo; Kinuthia, Dickson; Ronzani, Piero |
| Abstract: | In several countries and settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries, men are expected to act as primary economic providers for their households, bearing the psychological and social burdens associated with this role. Despite its potential consequences, the effects of the breadwinner role on economic decision-making are understudied, particularly among poor households. This study investigates how gendered breadwinner expectations shape economic behavior in rural Kenya. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment among 400 smallholder farmers in Vihiga County, we test how psychological and social pressures associated with being the breadwinner of the family influence decision-making in both individual work choices and collective decisions. Participants completed a real-effort task choosing either a high-effort, high-reward option or a low-effort, low-reward alternative, followed by a public goods game framed around communal seed bank contributions. Results reveal that the heightened strain of the main breadwinner led male participants to reduce contributions to the communal seed bank by 0.2 standard deviations, while it did not affect their productivity in the real-effort task. These behavioral shifts suggest that the psychological consequences of breadwinner strain can undermine cooperation and the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices. Addressing the pressures of breadwinning can foster both economic resilience and social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | gender; gender norms; decision making; poverty; households; intrahousehold relations; Kenya; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180329 |
| By: | Natalia Montinari; Matteo Ploner; Veronica Rattini |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether alternative integration-policy framings affect cooperation in ethnically diverse groups. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with 390 adolescents in mixed classrooms in Italy. Within each class, students were randomly assigned to small groups that received either a neutral condition, a common-identity framing emphasizing shared school belonging, or a multicultural framing highlighting family origins and local cultural diversity, and then played a repeated public goods game with and without punishment. In the neutral condition, students with an immigrant background contributed about 17 percent more than natives. Framing diversity through a multicultural lens increased natives' contributions by about 13 percent relative to their baseline level, nearly eliminating the initial cooperation gap, whereas the common-identity framing had no detectable effect. When punishment was introduced, treatment effects on contributions became small, but multicultural framing increased the sanctioning of free riders, particularly among natives. The results suggest that cooperation in diverse settings depends not only on minority integration but also on how majority-group members respond to diversity. Policies that recognize multicultural identities, rather than emphasizing generic shared belonging alone, can strengthen cooperative norms in heterogeneous environments. |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1219 |
| By: | Yueh-ya Hsu; Reshmaan N. Hussam; Erin M. Kelley; Gregory Lane |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates household preferences over who should work and whether these preferences are malleable. We document that men and women prefer that husbands work over wives. To understand why, we randomly assign a six-week job to either the husband or wife and document asymmetry: women’s work improves their own wellbeing but not their husbands’, while men’s work improves both partners’ wellbeing. One year later, we surprise households with a work opportunity. Both women and men in households where women were previously employed are more likely to prefer the woman take the job and express fewer concerns about women’s employment in general. |
| JEL: | D91 I31 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34969 |
| By: | Sarah Jacobson (Williams College); John Spraggon (University of Massachusetts Amherst); ; |
| Abstract: | "We use a lab experiment to study a combined linear-threshold public good game, with linear returns to contributions and an additional higher return if a threshold is met. We experimentally vary handling of contributions that do not meet the threshold. Contributions are high, with almost all groups reaching the threshold. Refund institutions matter, but only a little: contributions are only weakly higher on average if insufficient contributions are automatically refunded than if they cannot be refunded. However, optional refunds chosen ex post perform relatively poorly. Risk averse people contribute less, but when a refund is possible, more risk tolerant people reduce their contributions relative to risk averse people. An online survey-experiment shows that people perceive refunds in this institution as desirable from a donor’s perspective, though a donor’s taking advantage of a threshold is perceived as non-normative, especially in a naturalistic charity context." |
| Keywords: | public goods games, threshold public goods, lab experiment, social preferences, risk preferences |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2025_114 |
| By: | Rattini, Veronica (University of Bologna); Montinari, Natalia (University of Bologna); Ploner, Matteo (University of Trento) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether integration-policy framings affect cooperation in diverse groups. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with 390 adolescents in mixed classrooms in Italy. Within each class, students were randomly assigned to groups receiving either a common-identity framing emphasizing shared school belonging, a multicultural framing highlighting family origins and cultural diversity, or a neutral framing, and then played a public goods game with and without punishment. At baseline, immigrants contributed about 17 percent more than natives. Framing diversity through a multicultural lens increased natives’ contributions by about 13 percent, nearly eliminating the initial cooperation gap, whereas the common-identity framing had no detectable effect. When punishment was introduced, the multicultural framing increased the sanctioning of free riders, particularly among natives. The results suggest that cooperation in diverse settings depends not only on minority integration but also on how majority-group members respond to diversity. Policies that recognize multicultural identities, rather than emphasizing shared belonging alone, can strengthen cooperative norms in heterogeneous environments. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, multiculturalism, public goods, integration, identity priming, natural identity, social identity |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18460 |
| By: | Bin Khaled, Muhammad Nahian; Maredia, Mywish K.; Narayanan, Sudha; Belton, Ben; Kabir, Razin |
| Abstract: | Price discounts are a common policy tool to promote agricultural technology adoption in low-income settings, yet their effectiveness may be limited when farmers face uncertainty or have access to familiar alternatives. We test this through a randomized controlled trial with shrimp farmers in southwestern coastal Bangladesh, a region highly exposed to climate shocks. The government promotes Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) post-larvae (PL)—certified as disease-free—to reduce high mortality in shrimp farming. Farmers were randomly offered varying discount levels for two SPF-PL types, differing in size uniformity and market price (proxies for quality), with the highest discount reducing their prices to parity with conventional non-SPF PL. We find no significant effect of discounts on adoption of the lower-priced Mid-grade SPF-PL, characterized by less size uniformity. In contrast, discounts significantly increased adoption of the higher-priced, more uniform Premium-grade SPF-PL, raising uptake by 10–19 percentage points among active shrimp farmers. Larger discounts did not yield higher adoption than smaller ones, indicating diminishing returns to discount generosity. Heterogeneity analyses reveal behavioral and contextual mechanisms: prior exposure to Mid-grade SPF-PL reduced its subsequent adoption but increased responsiveness to Premium-grade, consistent with experience effects and reference dependence. Cyclone exposure dampened treatment responses, suggesting capital constraints, while infrastructure preparedness (e.g., nursing facilities) enhanced uptake. These findings underscore that in high-risk agricultural systems, price incentives alone may not drive adoption unless the promoted input is perceived as effective. Successful promotion strategies must integrate quality assurance with attention to farmer experience, behavioral biases, and vulnerability to shocks. |
| Keywords: | farmers; shellfish diseases; financial policies; shrimp culture; pond culture; supply chains; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:178761 |
| By: | Koch, Alexander (Aarhus University); Kragl, Jenny (EBS Business School); Ming, Sijuan (Aarhus University); Nafziger, Julia (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Persistent gender gaps in self-promotion contribute to unequal labor market outcomes. In this study, we investigate how AI-assisted writing tools shape self-promotion, and, as a secondary outcome, confidence and how these effects interact with gender. For this purpose, we conducted an online experiment in China in which participants wrote self-promotion texts, provided a numerical self-promotion score and stated their confidence about how they will perform in an upcoming math and logic test. We find suggestive evidence that AI assistance reduces numerical self-evaluations. Neither gender nor the interaction between gender and AI assistance is significantly related to self-promotion or confidence. We conduct a text analysis to investigate the mechanisms behind these results. |
| Keywords: | self-promotion, confidence, AI assistance, gender gaps |
| JEL: | C90 D03 D83 J16 M12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18441 |
| By: | Burak Uras (Williams College); Francesco Carli (Deakin University); Francesco Cecchi (Wageningen University); Manuela Fritz (Technical University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | " We study the effects of asymmetric joint liability on peer monitoring, moral hazard, and default in microfinance. We develop a structural model of group lending under moral hazard and test its implications in a lab-in-the-field experiment with microfinance clients in urban Bolivia. The model shows that symmetric joint liability contracts can weaken incentives for peer monitoring and lead to coordinated defaults. By designating one group member as a lead borrower with differential interest rates, asymmetric joint liability restores monitoring incentives and mitigates moral hazard. Consistent with the model, experimental evidence shows that asymmetric joint liability contracts increase peer monitoring and loan repayment, particularly among borrowers who find joint liability acceptable." |
| Keywords: | Microfinance, asymmetric joint liability, group leader, peer monitoring, strategic default, lab-in-the-field |
| JEL: | C7 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2026_106 |
| By: | Gschwendt, Christian (University of Bern); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Zollner, Thea S. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7, 000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job automation risk. Finally, our findings suggest that AI-related educational opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, gender gaps, GenAI, choice experiment, continuing education, automation risk |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18456 |
| By: | Douglas K.G. Araujo; Harald Uhlig |
| Abstract: | As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly tasked with autonomous decision making, understanding their behavior in strategic settings is crucial. We investigate the choices of various LLMs in the Ultimatum Game, a setting where human behavior notably deviates from theoretical rationality. We conduct experiments varying the stake size and the nature of the opponent (Human vs. AI) across both Proposer and Responder roles. Three key results emerge. First, LLM behavior is heterogeneous but predictable when conditioning on stake size and player types. Second, while some models approximate the rational benchmark and others mimic human social preferences, a distinct “altruistic” mode emerges where LLMs propose hyper-fair distributions (greater than 50%). Third, LLM Proposers forgo a large share of total payoff, and an even larger share when the Responder is human. These findings highlight the need for careful testing before deploying AI agents in economic settings. |
| JEL: | C70 C90 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34919 |
| By: | Claudia Curi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Andreas Dibiasi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Matteo Ploner (University of Trento, Italy); Mirco Tonin (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study whether gender-biased financial advice contributes to the gender gap in pension wealth. Using administrative records from four private pension funds in Italy, we document that women are ceteris paribus 8 percentage points less likely than men to choose stock-focused investment lines at the time of enrollment. To assess whether advisory behavior contributes to this gap, we conduct a vignette-based survey experiment among pension advisors affiliated to the four funds, randomly varying the gender of otherwise identical prospective 25-year-old clients. Advisors are 22 percentage points less likely to recommend stock-oriented portfolios to female clients, even after conditioning on advisors’ beliefs about relevant client characteristics. We further show that a simple information intervention that makes advisors aware of the documented gender bias eliminates this gap in the experimental setting. Linking advisors to real clients in the administrative data, we demonstrate that the gender gap in actual investment choices shrinks by ap proximately 60% during the five months following the intervention. This evidence suggests that gender bias in financial advice is largely implicit and that low-cost informational feedback to advisors can meaningfully reduce gender disparities in retirement wealth accumulation. |
| Keywords: | Biased advice; Gender; Pension; Implicit bias. |
| JEL: | J16 G53 J32 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps118 |
| By: | Burbidge, Dominic (University of Oxford); Cheeseman, Nic (University of Birmingham); Panin, Amma (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Reciprocity lies at the heart of vote buying but its exact role is nuanced. Politicians often offer money in exchange for votes. Yet citizens who reject bribery in the context of democratic political processes might view the exchange of money for votes as illegitimate, even if they enjoy reciprocal relationships with similar figures in other contexts. We test for the willingness of individuals to accept or reject electoral bribes using lab-in-the-field experiments in Ghana and Uganda. Participants play the roles of voters and candidates. Some candidates can offer a bribe before the vote. Voters are 14 percentage points more likely to vote for a candidate who had the opportunity to bribe but refrained from doing so. Cross-nationally, we draw on unique survey data that demonstrates respondents are more likely to reward non-bribing candidates in Ghana where there is a higher quality of democracy and stronger support for democratic norms and values. Individually, we find that voters who have had positive experiences and attitudes towards elections were more likely to vote for a candidate who did not bribe them. Taken together, these findings suggest that the lab-in-the-field results are best explained by the prevalence of democratic values among some respondents. |
| Keywords: | Elections ; Vote-buying ; Bribery ; Lab-in-the-field experiment ; Ghana ; Uganda |
| JEL: | D72 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2025005 |
| By: | Keshav Agrawal; Susan Athey; Ayush Kanodia; Shanjukta Nath; Emil Palikot |
| Abstract: | Can personalized recommendations improve engagement in educational technology? We design, test, and scale a collaborative filtering system for Freadom, an English-learning app for Indian children. A randomized controlled trial (RCT) with 7, 750 students shows that personalization, deployed in a single content section, increases engagement by 60% in that section and by 14% app-wide. We then exploit an eligibility threshold in a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to track effects over five months of deployment. For user cohorts receiving personalization during deployment, RDD estimates exceed RCT benchmark by a factor of 2.5, opposite of the “voltage drop" typically observed in policy scale-ups. This provides evidence that, for algorithmic interventions, RCT estimates may be lower bounds on scaled impact rather than upper bounds. However, personalization benefits are front-loaded. Gains concentrate in users’ first weeks, with diminishing returns thereafter. This pattern, combined with the sharp decline in predicted match quality as users exhaust their best content matches, suggests that content availability rather than algorithmic sophistication becomes the binding constraint. |
| JEL: | C21 C93 I21 L81 M30 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34950 |
| By: | Marcella Alsan; Joshua Schwartzstein; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | Lethal firearm ownership is deeply polarizing in the United States. We show that beneath this polarization, owners and non-owners share a common objective — safety — but disagree sharply about whether lethal firearms achieve it. Using an original survey of more than 5, 400 respondents combined with randomized experiments, we document that owners feel safe and confident with firearms, while non-owners on balance feel less safe around them and perceive large private costs and social harms. Demand for lethal firearms is nonetheless potentially large and growing: one-third of non-owners express interest in acquiring one — these individuals report the lowest day-to-day safety — while very few owners would consider reducing their holdings. Persuading owners to relinquish firearms without any replacement appears unrealistic; the more tractable margins may be safe storage and non-lethal substitution for additional purchases. We organize these patterns through a framework centered on a perceived safety possibilities frontier (SPF) — the safety outcomes a household believes achievable with different combinations of lethal and non-lethal tools. Households may differ in firearm demand because they face different risk environments, weigh protective benefits against harms differently, or hold different beliefs about the frontier. Our descriptive evidence points to heterogeneous beliefs as important drivers, suggesting that levers such as information could shift the perceived frontier. These patterns motivate three experimental treatments: one on the private legal/medical costs of lethal firearm ownership, and two on a non-lethal firearm (NLFA), with and without a conservative pundit’s endorsement. The private-cost treatment increases concern about harms among all respondents and support for safe storage policies, and modestly raises stated willingness to keep lethal firearms locked. NLFA treatments raise willingness to pay for an NLFA, to keep lethal firearms locked, and support for incapacitating over lethal firearms and for policies encouraging NLFAs. These effects are largely persistent. Importantly, NLFA information does not increase willingness to reduce lethal firearm ownership but does increase willingness to store lethal firearms safely. Our results suggest that many owners perceive the SPF differently from nonowners, neglecting harms or less-lethal alternatives, yet remain open to such tools. Overall, individuals share a common goal — safety — yet disagree about the means. Although these disagreements appear entrenched, people remain receptive to alternatives that might command broader agreement. |
| JEL: | H0 H80 I1 K0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34962 |
| By: | Epper, Thomas (CNRS, IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France); Ibsen, Kristoffer (Aarhus University); Koch, Alexander (Aarhus University); Nafziger, Julia (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items - especially motivation and expectations about degree completion - substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value - a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to improve dropout predictions. |
| Keywords: | dropout, non-cognitive skills, motivation, economic preferences, beliefs, education, machine learning |
| JEL: | I23 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18439 |
| By: | Theresa Huebsch (University of Bonn); Robert Mahlstedt (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Pia Pinger (University of Cologne); Sonja Settele (University of Cologne); Helene Willadsen (National Research Centre for the Working Environment) |
| Abstract: | Using surveys with Danish students transitioning to secondary education, we study mental models of how gender and parental education shape academic performance. Students hold heterogeneous beliefs about performance gaps by gender and parental background, which appear to be shaped by within-family transmission and broader social environments. Open-text responses reveal that respondents link strong performance by girls and less socioeconomically privileged students to effort, while attributing privileged students success to external advantages. Mental models matter: beliefs about performance gaps predict enrollment in upper secondary education by gender and parental education and causally affect students’ self-assessments, intended effort, and educational aspirations, as shown in an information experiment with girls. We highlight two mechanisms: updating about the returns to effort and about gender-specific effort costs in response to observed gender performance gaps. Our findings advance the understanding of education choices and shed light on the determinants and effects of mental models in a high-stakes setting. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, Education, Inequality |
| JEL: | D83 D84 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2603 |
| By: | David Crainich (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Léontine Goldzahl (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Florence Jusot (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Doriane Mignon (University of Manchester [Manchester], NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology = Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet = Norjan teknis-luonnontieteellinen yliopisto) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the role of two demand-side determinants of long-term care insurance: correlation preference and relative preference for quality of life over wealth. We model the effect of those preferences on the joint decision to buy long-term care and long-term care insurance contract. We test the model using data from a laboratory experiment in France. While the experimental results offer only partial support for the theoretical predictions - specifically, correlation aversion does not account for over-insurance - our analysis provides evidence that correlation seeking and the relative preference for quality of life over wealth explain the limited uptake of long-term care insurance. |
| Keywords: | risk preference, Laboratory experiment, Long-term care insurance demand |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536893 |
| By: | Lelkes, Yphtach; Ahn, Chloe; Huang, Shengchun (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Partisan vitriol has become a defining feature of American politics, evident in survey responses and social media discourse. Conventional wisdom holds that these expressions reflect deeply rooted hostility. Yet they may also function as social signals, reinforcing loyalty and conformity within partisan groups. In this view, animosity is less about entrenched ideological divisions and more about fostering cohesion among co-partisans. We test this proposition in two settings. First, using the 2012 American National Election Studies, which recorded interviewer partisanship, we exploit within-interviewer variation to examine whether respondents adjusted their reported hostility depending on the partisan identity of their interviewer. Respondents expressed significantly more animosity when interviewed by a co-partisan and less when facing an opposing-partisan interviewer. Second, in an online experiment with 1, 510 participants, we find that revealing a partner’s partisan alignment—when it matched the participant’s—encouraged more frequent out-group attacks and in-group promotion. These behaviours were strongly shaped by social norms: participants were substantially more likely to attack when their partner had done so in the previous round. Together, these findings suggest that partisan hostility is contingent on immediate social context, not solely on deeply held animus. |
| Date: | 2026–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9tseb_v1 |
| By: | Wei Ma; Zeqi Wu; Zheng Zhang |
| Abstract: | In modern randomized experiments, large-scale data collection increasingly yields rich baseline covariates and auxiliary information from multiple sources. Such information offers opportunities for more precise treatment effect estimation, but it also raises the challenge of integrating heterogeneous information coherently without compromising validity. Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) is widely used to improve covariate balance at the design stage, but it typically balances only a small set of covariates used to form strata, making covariate adjustment at the analysis stage essential for more efficient estimation of treatment effects. Beyond standard covariate adjustment, it is often desirable to incorporate auxiliary information, including cross-stratum information, predictions from various machine learning models, and external data from historical trials or real-world sources. While this auxiliary information is widely available, existing covariate adjustment methods under CAR primarily exploit within-stratum covariates and do not provide a coherent mechanism for integrating it. We propose a unified calibration framework that integrates such information through an information proxy vector and calibration weights defined by a convex optimization problem. The resulting estimator recovers many recent covariate adjustment procedures as special cases while providing a systematic mechanism for both internal and external information borrowing within a single framework. We establish large-sample validity and a no-harm efficiency guarantee, showing that incorporating additional information sources cannot increase asymptotic variance, and we extend the theory to settings in which both the number of strata and the number of information sources grow with the sample size. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.07055 |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; de Brauw, Alan; Uddin, Mohammad Riad |
| Abstract: | Credit market failures may reflect voluntary withdrawal by risk-averse borrowers in addition to supply-side constraints. We conduct a randomized trial with 1, 517 Bangladeshi households, offering cattle financing through conventional loans or profit-sharing contracts that spread risk between the farmer and the financial partner. Overall, interest in and take-up of the profit-sharing contracts were modestly higher than the conventional loans. However, conventional loan take-up was much lower among risk-averse farmers, and profit-sharing eliminated the take-up gap between risk-averse and non-risk-averse farmers. We find that it is male risk preferences that are associated with these decisions even when contracts explicitly target women. Livestock investment increases under both contracts with no evidence of moral hazard under profit-sharing. |
| Keywords: | gender; credit; financing; livestock; loans; smallholders; financial innovation; access to finance; risk; risk coping strategies; Bangladesh; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:181679 |
| By: | Cole, Steve; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Heckert, Jessica; Hidrobo, Melissa; Mwakanyamale, Devis; Nwagboso, Chibuzo |
| Abstract: | Transforming gender norms improves women’s wellbeing and may help close the agricultural productivity gap, yet evidence on pairing them with agriculture interventions is limited. We will test an innovative approach to developing and delivering gender transformative interventions with cassava producers in Tanzania. Using a cluster-randomized controlled trial, we examine the impact of these gender transformative interventions paired with standard agricultural service, compared to agricultural services alone, on the primary (gender norms, decision making, and women’s leadership) and secondary (agricultural productivity, women’s savings, and women’s access to land) outcomes. Qualitative methods will examine changes in intra-couple dynamics (communication, decision making, and division of labor). |
| Keywords: | gender; policies; impact assessment; women; cluster randomized trials; qualitative analysis; Tanzania; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:179364 |
| By: | Vera Chiodi (Sorbonne University Paris); Bruno Crépon (CREST-ENSAE); Guillermo Cruces (Universidad de San Andrés, CONICET, and University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Housing conditions, residential location, and employment are key determinants of individual welfare, particularly for vulnerable populations facing credit constraints and information frictions. We examine how housing assistance affects employment outcomes using a randomized controlled trial in France that provided vulnerable youth (aged 18–25) with both job search assistance and housing support, including rent guarantees. The program successfully improved housing conditions: beneficiaries experienced better accommodation stability, reduced precarious situations, and increased satisfaction with their housing. However, despite substantial social worker support, the program did not improve employment rates, contract types, or earnings. Strikingly, beneficiaries moved to neighborhoods with objectively worse employment opportunities and lower socioeconomic indicators, yet reported higher satisfaction with their residential areas. This apparent paradox reveals that beneficiaries appear to prioritize housing affordability and conditions over employment access. Our results suggest that successful interventions may need to explicitly balance housing improvements with maintaining access to employment opportunities. |
| JEL: | J8 J60 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:180 |
| By: | Jin Yeub Kim (Yonsei University); Wooyoung Lim (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Mediation is a key strategic instrument for managing conflicts in bargaining scenarios with incomplete information. This paper reports the first systematic laboratory investigation into the informed principal problem concerning mediator selection. The theory of neutral optimum predicts that, in our environment, the informed principal's most reasonable choice is not the mediator that maximizes the ex-ante probability of peace; rather, the one preferred by the stronger type alone constitutes a credibly justifiable compromise between the conflicting interests of different types. We find that subjects do not choose the neutral mediator more often than the peace-maximizing one. Different principal types recognize the need for inscrutable selection and form intertype compromises, and they systematically view the peace-maximizing mediator as the more compelling compromise. The strategic reasoning underlying the neutral optimum fails to materialize in the lab. |
| Keywords: | Informed Principal Problems, Mechanism Selection, Mediation, Inscrutability, Neutral Optimum, Laboratory Experiments |
| JEL: | C72 C91 D82 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2026rwp-283 |
| By: | Halling, Aske (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Administrative burdens—the learning, compliance, and psychological costs citizens experience when interacting with the state—vary substantially across individuals. Existing research shows that burdens are unequally distributed and shaped by individuals’ social background, their administrative skills, and resource-related pressures such as health problems and financial scarcity. However, we know much less about the psychological foundations of inequality in burdensome experiences. This article examines whether stable personality traits help explain variation in experiences of administrative burden. It argues that two traits in particular—conscientiousness and emotional stability—play a central role in how citizens navigate administrative requirements, given their established links to information processing, task management, and stress regulation. The argument is tested using two pre-registered survey studies from Denmark: a cross sectional survey on tax reporting (n = 1, 747) and a vignette experiment involving a fictional elderly care application (n = 1, 769). Across both studies, higher levels of conscientiousness and emotional stability are consistently associated with lower learning, compliance, and psychological costs, whereas other personality traits show weaker and less consistent relationships. Additional analyses show that these two traits match or exceed the explanatory power of established predictors such as education, health, and financial scarcity, and account for a non-trivial share of the variation commonly attributed to them. The findings position personality—and particularly conscientiousness and emotional stability—as a central, yet previously overlooked, source of inequality in citizens’ experiences of administrative burden. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7wvh4_v1 |
| By: | Jovanovic, Nina; Darwish, Maram; Kurdi, Sikandra; Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | This policy note summarizes findings from a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in eastern Yemen to assess the impacts of subsidized solar powered drip irrigation systems on smallholder farmers’ production decisions and household food security. The study provides causal evidence on how subsidizing solar drip irrigation for smallholders affects crop choice, market engagement, and welfare outcomes in a fragile, water-scarce context. The intervention led to a significant shift in cropping patterns, with treated farmers becoming less likely to cultivate cereals and more likely to grow higher-value horticultural crops. Treated households also sold a greater share of their harvest in markets during the first season following installation, suggesting increased commercialization. However, the study did not detect significant short-term impacts on household food security, indicating that production changes did not immediately translate into improved consumption outcomes. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation; solar energy; irrigation; evaluation; solar powered irrigation systems; trickle irrigation; groundwater irrigation; irrigation systems; Yemen; Western Asia; Middle East |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masprn:179369 |
| By: | Hang Yu; Jared Stolove; Dean Yang; James Riddell IV; Arlete Mahumane |
| Abstract: | Financial incentives are widely used to encourage beneficial behaviors, but their effectiveness may be limited by inattention and imperfect memory. We study this in a randomized trial of HIV medication adherence in Mozambique. Financial incentives alone increase adherence by 10.6 percentage points, while pairing incentives with reminders increases adherence by 24.3 percentage points. We develop a model in which inattention to daily adherence and imperfect memory of payment eligibility reduce incentive effectiveness and show that reminders mitigate both frictions. Detailed medication refill data support the model’s predictions. The results suggest combining incentives with reminders can substantially increase program effectiveness. |
| JEL: | D91 I12 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34917 |
| By: | Alessandra Cassar (USF - University of San Francisco, Chapman University); Alejandrina Cristia (LSCP - Laboratoire de sciences cognitives et psycholinguistique - DEC - Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pauline Grosjean (UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Sarah Walker (UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between allomaternal care (i.e., care for children by individuals other than the mother) and prosociality (reciprocity and altruism). Motivated by ethnographic evidence of a positive association between allomaternal care and societal trust across cultures, we design an economic experiment to measure the relationship between allomaternal care and cooperative behavior among 820 participants in small scale societies of the Solomon Islands. Our results show that receiving help with child care predicts higher levels of reciprocity towards the helper. This relationship remains robust for mothers even after accounting for participant fixed effects, for the nature of the relationship between mother and helper, and for other forms of mutual assistance. Moreover, help from non-relatives is associated with altruism toward strangers, suggesting a novel channel for the development of impersonal prosociality. Strengthening the case for the importance of allomaternal care for human development, we report suggestive evidence of potential socio-cognitive benefits to children who receive care from non-relatives (based on daylong recordings of 197 children analyzed using a multilingually-trained neural network), as well as societal-level benefits in terms of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Altruism, Allomaternal care, Prosociality, Cooperation, Child vocalizations, Networks, Dictator game, Reciprocity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05533531 |
| By: | Lidia Vidal-Melia; Eva Camacho-Cuena; Till Requate; Israel Waichman |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate how the timing of, and commitment to, an environmental regulation affects efficient technology adoption under emission taxes and tradable permits. An environmental regulator can either commit ex-ante to a specific policy level or ex-post to a rule on how to adjust the policy level after firms have decided whether or not to adopt an advanced low-emission technology. In a 2x2 design, we examine the performance of the four environmental policies (ex-ante vs. ex-post; tax vs. permits), all of which should theoretically lead to the social optimum. Indeed, we find that, in all scenarios, firms' adoption of advanced technology is close to the social optimum. Regarding static efficiency, the tax policy slightly outperforms the permit policy. However, the overall efficiency is very high in all treatments, suggesting that ex-post regulations do not necessarily hinder the adoption of low-polluting technologies. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, emissions trading, regulator commitment timing, market design experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D44 L51 Q28 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12539 |
| By: | Giani, Marco; Krakowski, Krzysztof; Târlea, Silvana |
| Abstract: | Humanitarian responses to refugees are typically framed as temporary, yet protracted conflicts blur the line between short-term protection and permanent settlement. We argue that public support for inclusive refugee policies depends on whether refugees are perceived as temporary guests or long-term residents. Using a survey experiment in Poland during the Ukrainian refugee crisis, we study whether citizens misperceive refugees’ intentions to settle permanently and whether correcting such “settlement misperceptions” affects support for inclusive refugee policy. Poles substantially overestimate the share of Ukrainians intending to remain indefinitely. These beliefs are strongly associated with lower support for inclusive refugee policy. Providing factual information about refugees’ actual settlement plans leads to meaningful belief updating and shifts in policy preferences. Corrections increase support among overestimators and decrease it among underestimators, with a net positive effect overall. Effects are strongest for welfare-related policies and extend to generalized affect, though not to social distance. Humanitarian attitudes thus hinge partly on temporal expectations. |
| Date: | 2026–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:56pyj_v1 |
| By: | Can Celebi; Christine Exley; Soren Harrs; Hannu Kivimaki; Marta Serra-Garcia; Jeffrey Yusof |
| Abstract: | Absent high-quality online data, research questions would be constrained conceptually and in study populations. To inform the debate about online data quality, this paper provides empirical evidence that compares data quality of responses from online participants, AI agents, and human subjects in the lab. Corresponding results reveal high data quality on some platforms, but not others. This paper also highlights a viable path for high-quality online data in an evolving landscape: use a two-stage recruitment method to broadly recruit online subjects in a baseline study and then limit recruitment for the main study to the resulting subset of "high quality" subjects. |
| Keywords: | experiments, data quality, AI agents, AI |
| JEL: | C81 C83 C90 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12535 |
| By: | Rebolledo, Nicolás; Almeyda, Gonzalo; Granada Donato, David; Lombardi, María; Oubiña, Victoria; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a randomized remote tutoring program implemented in Paraguay, targeting 1, 650 students in grades four through six with low baseline performance in Spanish language. The intervention provided two weekly 30-minute one-on-one tutoring sessions over the phone for eight weeks, using a differentiated instruction model tailored to students initial diagnostic assessments. Treated students showed significant learning gains: those offered tutoring scored 0.11 standard deviations higher on standardized language tests compared to controls. Effects were consistent across sociodemographic subgroups and baseline achievement levels. Leveraging the random assignment of students to tutors, we estimate individual tutor value added, and find that tutor effects account for 15% of the variation in student outcomes. Tutors in the top quintile have an average value added of 0.38 standard deviations, almost four times the overall effect of the program, underscoring the importance of individual tutor effectiveness in scaling tutoring interventions successfully. |
| JEL: | J20 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14534 |
| By: | Christian Gschwendt; Claudio Schilter |
| Abstract: | Generative AI (GenAI) adoption is spreading rapidly and reshaping work, yet its implications for firms' training decisions remain largely unexplored. This paper examines how automation in the post-GenAI era affects firms' entry-level training positions using a vignette experiment with recruiters at over 2, 800 Swiss firms, covering more than 100 distinct occupations. Firms plan to reduce training positions in response to automation prospects, with larger reductions the greater the expected automated task share and the earlier the expected implementation. Effects are markedly stronger in routine-intensive and AI-exposed occupations, as well as among large firms. Our experiment allows us to disentangle an "erosion of the training pipeline, " where firms reduce training even though demand for trained specialists remains, from an overall decline in occupational labor demand. We find that pipeline erosion accounts for less than one third of the average reduction in training, but substantially more when automation is particularly intensive - measured by a high share of tasks being automated - and in routine-intensive and AI-exposed occupations. Overall, the results suggest that GenAI adoption is likely to reallocate firms' human capital investment with potential downstream implications for early career formation, and to reinforce labor market de-routinization trends. |
| Keywords: | Automation, firm training, technological change, generative AI, artificial intelligence, entry-level employment |
| JEL: | J24 M53 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0252 |
| By: | Aaron Bodoh-Creed; Brent Hickman; John List; Ian Muir; Gregory Sun |
| Abstract: | Nonlinear pricing theory predicts that firms can extract surplus by inducing heterogeneous consumers to self-sort across price contract offers that are ex-post optimal for them. We study subscription pricing when the frictionless sorting assumption fails. Using large-scale subscription experiments conducted by Lyft, we document systematic deviations from optimal self-selection: many high-demand consumers decline subscriptions that would have saved them money, while some subscribers fail to break even. We develop a structural model of intensive-margin demand in which consumers may exhibit salience failures, forecast errors about future demand, or impulsivity. We show that subscription uptake can be recast as one-sided noncompliance in a binary-instrument framework, allowing us to leverage LATE methods to identify counterfactual outcome distributions and a novel "uptake function" linking baseline outcomes to compliance behavior. Combining experimental price variation with this identification strategy, we recover utility primitives, demand heterogeneity, and behavioral parameters. Salience failures and forecast errors play quantitatively important roles. Counterfactual analyses show that optimal subscription pricing generates substantial gains relative to linear pricing, but these gains are highly sensitive to consumer deviations from ex-post optimal choice. Implementing nonlinear pricing therefore requires not only optimal contract design for consumer screening, but also coordinated efforts to mitigate behavioral frictions. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00834 |
| By: | Adam Visokay; Laura Boudreau; Rachel M. Heath; Tyler H. McCormick |
| Abstract: | Surveys are critical inputs for research and policy, yet, enumerating a sampling frame is logistically infeasible or financially nonviable in many circumstances, such as during pandemics, natural disasters, or armed conflict. Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) does not require a sampling frame, yet non-random peer recruitment often introduces substantial bias, particularly under high homophily. We introduce and evaluate Randomized Recruitment Driven Sampling (RRDS), a cellphone-based adaptation of RDS that incorporates researcher-controlled randomization into each recruitment wave. While standard RDS is necessary for stigmatized groups where network transparency is infeasible, RRDS is designed for low-stigma populations that become difficult to access due to logistical barriers. In these contexts, RRDS enforces the random recruitment assumption that traditional RDS relies upon but rarely achieves. Through simulation and an experiment surveying Bangladeshi garment workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate that RRDS produces less biased estimates and improved confidence interval coverage compared to traditional RDS. RRDS offers a scalable, remote-compatible alternative for studying low-stigma groups in challenging contexts where large-scale probability sampling is unsafe or infeasible. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00365 |
| By: | Xiang He (HKBU - Hong Kong Baptist University); Mengxiang Li (HKBU - Hong Kong Baptist University); Yi Liu (Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Impulsive buying accounts for a significant portion of online transactions. However, it is challenging for retailers to stimulate consumers' impulsive buying in the quick decision-making environment of online shopping, which is often driven by promotional events. As consumers often regret when shopping online, a key factor influencing their impulsive buying is the anticipation of that regret. Yet few studies have examined the role of anticipated regret in impulsive buying. Drawing on regret theory, we explore how online review valence shapes two forms of anticipated regret: anticipated action regret (for buying) and anticipated inaction regret (for not buying). Furthermore, we examine how quantity-and time-based scarcity messages moderate the relationship between review valence and anticipated regret. Findings from two laboratory experiments show that positive review valence reduces anticipated action regret while increasing anticipated inaction regret, with scarcity messages amplifying these effects. We further find that anticipated inaction regret, rather than anticipated action regret, plays a pivotal role in driving impulsive buying. Our qualitative survey provides rich evidence to validate our theoretical arguments and findings. This study enriches the literature by highlighting the affective mechanism of anticipated regret in impulsive buying and offering a nuanced understanding of its dual nature. It provides actionable suggestions to online retailers for optimizing the use of review valence and scarcity messages to enhance sales in fast-paced online shopping contexts. |
| Keywords: | Impulsive buying, Online review valence, Scarcity message, Regret theory, Anticipated regret |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05526450 |
| By: | Alexander Erlei; Lukas Meub |
| Abstract: | As AI agents increasingly act on behalf of human stakeholders in economic settings, understanding their behavior in complex market environments becomes critical. This article examines how Large Language Models coordinate on markets that are characterized by information asymmetries and in which providers of services have incentives to exploit that asymmetry for their own economic gain. To that end, we conduct simulations with GPT-5.1 agents in credence goods markets, manipulating the institutional framework (free market, verifiability, liability), LLM agent's social preferences (default, self-interested, inequity-averse, efficiency-loving), and reputation mechanisms across one-shot and repeated 16-round interactions. In one-shot settings, LLM agents largely fail to establish cooperation, with markets breaking down except under liability rules or when experts have efficiency-loving preferences. Repeated interactions solve consumer participation through competitive price reduction, but expert fraud remains entrenched absent explicit other-regarding preferences. LLM consumers focus narrowly on price levels rather than understanding strategic incentives embedded in markups, making them vulnerable to exploitation. Compared to human experiments, LLM markets exhibit substantially higher consumer participation but much greater market concentration, lower prices, and more polarized fraud patterns. The effect of institutions like verifiability and reputation is also much more ambiguous. Surplus shifts dramatically toward consumers under social-preference objectives. These findings suggest that institutional design for AI agent markets requires fundamentally different approaches than those effective for human actors, with social preference alignment emerging as the primary determinant of market efficiency. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.08853 |
| By: | Jurado, Ignacio; Serrano-Serrat, Josep |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how social group boundaries are renegotiated in response to demographic change, focusing on immigration from culturally diverse backgrounds. Using a survey experiment in Spain, we explore how Latin American immigrants—who share linguistic and cultural affinities with natives—react to the perceived growth of Moroccans, a more culturally distant immigrant group. Drawing on social identity and political economy theories, we argue that exposure to Moroccan immigration prompts Latinos to align more closely with natives, reflecting a dynamic of strategic boundary-making. Results show that Latinos perceive themselves as closer to Spaniards and more socially recognized, accompanied by a shift toward defining \textit{“being Spanish”} in cultural rather than birth terms. We find no corresponding change among natives, who, if anything, perceive Latinos as less similar to them. These findings suggest that boundary-making is a fluid and strategic process that is influenced by relative cultural distance to other immigrant groups. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mwqhr_v1 |