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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Noémi Berlin (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mamadou Gueye (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDA-CGEMP - Centre de Géopolitique de l’Energie et des Matières Premières - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use a laboratory experiment to analyze the effect of information provision (feedback) on individual sorting behavior. Effective sorting requires both quantity and quality, yet increasing quantity may reduce quality due to the higher risk of contamination. We conduct a collective sorting behavior experiment consisting of a two-stage coordination game in which two subjects are paired and then individually decide whether or not to participate in a collective sorting task. The performance achieved depends on the quantity and quality of sorting, and the payoff depends on the decision and performance of both subjects in the task. Information about the subject's own past performance, and information about the partner's past performance, are included as feedback treatments. Using a between-subjects experimental design, we find that the feedback type has very different effects on participation, performance and coordination (defined as both subjects succeeding in the sorting task). Only feedback about one's own performance leads to better performance and more coordination. Although this experiment is not contextualized, the results provide useful pointers for waste sorting policies. |
| Keywords: | experiment, sorting task, cooperation, informational feedback |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05460234 |
| By: | Eric Guerci (UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Keywords: | Experimental methodology |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05475831 |
| By: | Kemper, Jan; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | Researchers typically collect experimental data sequentially, allowing early outcome observations and adaptive treatment assignment to reduce exposure to inferior treatments. This article reviews multi-armed-bandit adaptive experimental designs that balance exploration and exploitation. Because adaptively collected experimental data through bandit algorithms violate standard asymptotics, inference is challenging. We implement an estimator that yields valid heteroskedasticity-robust confidence intervals in batched bandit designs and compare coverage in Monte Carlo simulations. We introduce bbandits for Stata, a tool for designing experiments via simulation, running interactive bandit experiments, and implementing and analyzing adaptively collected data. bbandits includes three common assignment algorithms-e-first, e-greedy, and Thompson sampling-and supports estimation, inference, and visualization. |
| Keywords: | Randomized controlled trial, causal inference, multi-armed bandits, experimental design, machine learning |
| JEL: | C1 C11 C12 C13 C15 C18 C8 C87 C88 C9 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1717 |
| By: | Yasushi Asako (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Yoshio Kamijo (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Daiki Kishishita (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University); Masayuki Odora (Global Education Center, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | The diffusion of fake news on social media poses a growing challenge to society. This study develops a theoretical model and laboratory experiment to examine whether user-to-user feedback such as likes or negative comments can reduce fake news sharing. We construct a sender-receiver game in which the sender receives a signal from potentially unreliable sources and decides whether to share it, while feedback from the receiver enables learning about information quality over time. The model predicts that (i) peer feedback induces self-selection: individuals with unreliable sources learn to stop sharing, and (ii) fake news spreads more when senders are motivated by reputation rather than accuracy, though this effect is modest. We test these predictions by developing a novel lab experiment based on the ball-and-urn experimental design. Consistent with the theory, feedback reduces fake news sharing, but effects are weaker due to underreaction in belief updating and noisy decisions. Differences across motivational incentives are minimal. These findings highlight both the potential and limits of peer feedback in preventing fake news sharing, offering implications for platforms seeking to curb misinformation through user-to-user feefback. |
| Keywords: | Fake news; Communication; Social learning; Peer feedback; Social media |
| JEL: | L82 D83 C92 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2531 |
| By: | Zhiheng You |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirical Bayes framework for experimental design that leverages information from prior related studies. When a researcher has access to estimates from previous studies on similar parameters, they can use empirical Bayes to estimate an informative prior over the parameter of interest in the new study. We show how this prior can be incorporated into a decision-theoretic experimental design framework to choose optimal design. The approach is illustrated via propensity score designs in stratified randomized experiments. Our theoretical results show that the empirical Bayes design achieves oracle-optimal performance as the number of prior studies grows, and characterize the rate at which regret vanishes. To illustrate the approach, we present two empirical applications--oncology drug trials and the Tennessee Project STAR experiment. Our framework connects the Bayesian meta-analysis literature to experimental design and provides practical guidance for researchers seeking to design more efficient experiments. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.20581 |
| By: | Zac, Amit; Gal, Michal S. |
| Abstract: | The integration of large language models (LLMs) into recommender systems (RS) has given rise to a new generation of Conversational RS (CRS). This study asks how CRS systems shape consumer behavior, and, in particular, their spending. Despite the rapid proliferation of such systems, including widely used tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, we still lack evidence on their behavioral effects. This study provides the first controlled empirical test of CRS influence on real purchasing decisions. In a laboratory experiment, complemented by large-scale API studies, participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: a traditional search baseline, GPT, Gemini, or a customized GPT designed to steer users toward more expensive products. CRS consistently increase consumer expenditures, with Customized GPT producing the highest average spending. Importantly, these effects are not driven by differences in perceived product quality, prior shopping experience, or generalized trust. Rather, they stem from subtle linguistic framing and increased exposure to premium brands. Taken together, the findings position LLM-based CRS as novel and potent choice architects with downstream implications for consumer protection, market design, and regulatory oversight. |
| Keywords: | recommendation systems, conversational recommender systems (CRS), largelanguage models (LLMS), LLM-empowered recommendation systems, consumerbehavior, algorithmic choice architecture, algorithmic bias, human-AI shoppinginteraction, trust in CRS, algorithmic regulation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:336742 |
| By: | Kemper, Jan; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | The advantages of adaptive experiments have led to their rapid adoption in economics, other fields, as well as among practitioners. However, adaptive experiments pose challenges for causal inference. This note suggests a BOLS (batched ordinary least squares) test statistic for inference of treatment effects in adaptive experiments. The statistic provides a precisionequalizing aggregation of per-period treatment-control differences under heteroskedasticity. The combined test statistic is a normalized average of heteroskedastic per-period z-statistics and can be used to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals. We provide simulation results comparing rejection rates in the typical case with few treatment periods and few (or many) observations per batch. |
| Keywords: | Adaptive experiments, Heteroskedasticity, Causal inference, Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C9 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336757 |
| By: | Michel Beine; Arnaud Bourgain; Elisabeth Kempter; Melissa Tornari |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of a one-week entrepreneurial coaching program on overall and irregular migration intentions among young adults in the Dakar metropolitan area, Senegal. Using a randomized controlled trial implemented in partnership with an entrepreneurship training center in Dakar, we estimate treatment effects by comparing baseline and follow-up outcomes and address partial compliance using instrumental-variable methods. We find that participation in entrepreneurial coaching reduces emigration intentions by 12–20%, with effects concentrated among individuals connected to the labor market. The program indirectly reduces intended irregular migration by encouraging some individuals to remain in Senegal. We do not find that participation affected the migration mode of those who still intend to migrate. Overall, our findings provide experimental evidence from Senegal that entrepreneurship-based active labor market policies can shape migration aspirations by strengthening local economic attachment among working youth. |
| Keywords: | migration intention, migration deterrence, randomized experiment, entrepreneurship, irregular migration, Sub-saharan Africa |
| JEL: | O15 O55 F22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12486 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen; Frauke Meyer; Gari Walkowitz |
| Abstract: | This paper provides clear evidence that concerns for basic needs satisfaction (BNS) represent a distinct distributional motive. Using a unified theoretical and experimental framework across five dictator-game experiments in Germany and Georgia (N=446), we disentangle BNS from motives such as maximin, selfishness, efficiency, generosity, and envy. A substantial share of participants displayed BNS-driven choices and were willing to forgo income and efficiency to satisfy others’ basic needs. BNS remained robust across contexts, incentive schemes, and countries, and increased when needs satisfaction had strategic relevance. The results highlight the importance of BNS for understanding distributional preferences and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Basic Needs, Redistribution, Distributional Motives, Maximin, Public Policy, Field Experiment, Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H23 C93 C91 D01 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_729 |
| By: | Dominik Suri (University of Bonn); Simon Gächter (University of Nottingham); Sebastian Kube (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | AI-driven systems are rapidly moving from decision support to directing human behavior through rules, recommendations, and compliance requests. This shift expands everyday human–AI interaction and raises the possibility that AI may function as an authority figure. However, the behavioral consequences of AI as an authority figure remain poorly understood. We investigate whether individuals differ in their willingness to comply with arbitrary rules depending on whether these rules are attributed to an AI agent (ChatGPT) or to a fellow human. In a between-subject design, 977 US Prolific users completed the coins task: they could earn a monetary payoff by stopping the disappearance of coins at any time, but a rule instructed them to wait for a signal before doing so. There are no conventional reasons to follow this rule: complying is costly and nobody is harmed by non-compliance. Despite this, we find high rule-following rates: 64.3% followed the rule set by ChatGPT and 63.9% complied with the human-set rule.Descriptive and normative beliefs about rule following, aswell as compliance conditional on these beliefs, are also largely unaffected by the rule’s origin. However, subjective social closeness to the rule setter significantly predicts how participants condition their behavior on social expectations: when participants perceive the rule setter as subjectively closer, conditional compliance is higher and associated beliefs are stronger, irrespective of whether the rule setter is human or AI. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, AI-human interaction, ChatGPT, rule-following, coins task, CRISP framework, social expectations, conditional rule conformity, social closeness, IOS11, online experiments. |
| JEL: | C91 D91 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:391 |
| By: | Giuseppe Attanasi (Sapienza University of Rome); Annamaria Nese (University of Salerno); Patrizia Sbriglia (Luigi Vanvitelli University of Campania); Luigi Senatore (University of Salerno) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we report the results of a field experiment conducted in Southern Italy in 2023, analysing the behavioural effects of earthquakes as far as trust, trustworthiness, and risk aversion are concerned. The experiments were conducted in an area where a disastrous earthquake occurred in 1980 within the Campania region. Our working hypotheses aim at testing whether there are long-term effects of an earthquake. The experimental design comprised two treatments. For the first treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns close to the earthquake epicentre that had experienced significant damage from the disaster. For the second treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns with similar socio-economic characteristics but located far from the epicentre. Our results indicate that subjects who experienced the earthquake and its aftermath are more willing to trust, reciprocate kindness, and are more risk-averse than subjects in the alternative treatment. Overall, our results shed new light on the long-term effects of catastrophes and bear relevant implications for public and health policies. |
| Keywords: | Field Experiments, Environmental Disasters, Trust, Risk Aversion |
| JEL: | C90 C91 C93 D15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp67 |
| By: | Arto Arman; Andreas Beerli; Aljosha Henkel; Michel André Maréchal |
| Abstract: | We study how incarceration experience shapes preferences for criminal justice policies. In collaboration with a newly opened prison, we conducted a randomized field experiment that offered citizens the opportunity to experience up to two days of incarceration, closely replicating the real-life journey of inmates. Providing citizens with a chance to gain firsthand incarceration leads to a significant shift in punitive attitudes, with participants becoming less supportive of harsh criminal justice policies and donating more money to organizations advocating more moderate justice policies. Although individuals overestimated the wellbeing of actual prisoners, the intervention did not alter these beliefs. This suggests that the observed changes in policy preferences are driven more by personal experience than by revised beliefs about the burden of confinement. By randomizing institutional exposure outside the laboratory, our study highlights the causal role of personal experience in the formation of policy preferences. |
| Keywords: | incarceration, field experiment, personal experience, criminal justice policy, punitive attitudes, prison |
| JEL: | C93 D83 K14 P37 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12455 |
| By: | Grace E. Steward; Mario Macis; Nicola Lacetera; Jeffrey P. Kahn; Vikram S. Chib |
| Abstract: | We conducted a within-subject laboratory experiment in which participants decided whether to experience physical discomfort for charity, with or without additional personal compensation. Acceptance decreased with greater discomfort and increased with both larger charitable donations and personal payments. We show that private monetary incentives and prosocial benefits interact in a less-than-additive way: personal compensation raises participation but attenuates the marginal impact of charitable donations, making the combined impact of private and social rewards smaller than the sum of their separate effects. We also find suggestive evidence that the sequencing of compensated and uncompensated choices may change the responsiveness to charitable benefits. Overall, our results indicate that context, especially the presence (and timing) of private rewards, can affect the relationship between incentives and prosocial behavior. |
| Keywords: | prosocial behavior, incentives, altruism, motivation, decision-making |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D91 M52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12433 |
| By: | Guillermo Cruces; Diego Fernández Meijide; Sebastian Galiani; Ramiro H. Gálvez; María Lombardi |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) reinforce or reduce productivity differences across workers? Existing evidence largely studies AI within firms and occupations, where organizational selection compresses educational heterogeneity, leaving unclear whether AI narrows productivity gaps across individuals with substantially different levels of formal education. We address this question using a randomized online experiment conducted outside firms, in which 1, 174 adults ages 25–45 with heterogeneous educational backgrounds complete an incentivized, workplace-style business problem-solving task. The task is a general (not domain specific) exercise, and participants perform it either with or without access to a generative-AI assistant. Unlike prior work that studies heterogeneity within relatively homogeneous worker samples, our design targets the between–education-group productivity gap as the primary estimand. We find that AI increases productivity for all participants, with substantially larger gains for lower-education individuals. In the absence of AI access, higher-education participants outperform lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations; with AI access, this gap falls to 0.139 standard deviations, implying that generative AI closes about three quarters of the initial productivity gap. We interpret this pattern as evidence that generative AI narrows effective productivity differences in task execution by relaxing cognitive constraints that are more binding for lower-education individuals, even though underlying skill differences remain, as reflected in persistent education gaps in task performance and in a follow-up exercise without AI assistance. |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34851 |
| By: | Karina Colombo (European University Institute); Elisa Failache (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | We analyze social desirability bias in the reporting of parenting practices through survey questions. We develop a method to experimentally identify this bias by purposely inducing social desirability in questions on feeding practices through a random information provision on best practices. Our results show a treatment effect of -0.160 standard deviations in the reporting of children ultra-processed food consumption, in line with the presence of social desirability bias. We find a larger bias for women, less educated individuals, caregivers that believe child development is not malleable to parental investment, and those with risk preferences above the median. Although the Marlowe-Crowne scale positively correlates with our experimental measure of social desirability bias, we show that an heterogeneous effect analysis by this variable does not fully remove the issue. |
| Keywords: | social desirability bias, experiments, parental practices |
| JEL: | C93 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-08-25 |
| By: | Josephine Auer (JDepartment of Economics, MIT, Cambridge); Lana Friesen (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Ian A. MacKenzie (School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the existence of bid caps in budget-constrained procurement auctions. We analyze the design and (non)disclosure of a bid cap and how this impacts aggregate market outcomes and strategic bidding behavior in a budget-constrained envi-ronment. We use a laboratory experiment to analyze two potential bid cap designs—a disclosed versus undisclosed bid cap—as well as comparing both to a baseline case without a bid cap. We find adoption of either a disclosed or non-disclosed cap significantly im-proves cost effectiveness. A non-disclosed cap, however, significantly increases the informa-tion rent to participants and, consequently, performs relatively worse than a disclosed cap. We consider two common but distinct auction formats (discriminatory ‘pay-your-bid’ and a uniform price) and show that a discriminatory auction improves cost effectiveness com-pared to a uniform-price auction when the cap is disclosed. Our findings have important policy implications that demonstrate the benefits of implementing bid caps for improving budgetary cost-effectiveness while highlighting potential tradeoffs between efficiency and worsening information rents. |
| Keywords: | auction, experiment, bid cap, procurement |
| JEL: | C91 C92 D44 H57 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:672 |
| By: | Shubhro Bhattacharya; Sara M. Constantino; Nirajana Mishra; Nishith Prakash; Shwetlena Sabarwal; Dighbijoy Samaddar; Raisa Sherif |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates whether environmental education can shift household behavior through intergenerational transmission of knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes. We implement an activity-based program in Patna, India, and conduct a randomized experiment with 1, 545 child–parent pairs assigned to child-only, parent-only, joint, or control groups. Direct participation increases pro-environmental behaviors. Spillovers occur but are asymmetric: while children and parents influence each other’s behaviors, only children significantly shift parents’ climate beliefs and attitudes. Joint participation yields no additional gains beyond individual participation, suggesting that targeting children alone may be a scalable and cost-effective strategy for promoting sustainable household practices. |
| Keywords: | environmental education, Intra-household spillovers, Intergenerational transmission, pro-environmental behavior, climate risk perceptions, factorial randomized design, India |
| JEL: | D10 I20 C93 Q01 Q53 O10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12499 |
| By: | Julia Peter; Jana Schuetz |
| Abstract: | Financial literacy is an important prerequisite for making informed financial decisions, but it remains low, especially among women and older people. Internalized stereotypes can undermine confidence and subsequently affect behavior in financial matters, leading to suboptimal decisions. This paper investigates how stereotype salience affects confidence in financial literacy. In an information provision experiment, we inform respondents about age or gender differences in numeracy to examine the impact on financial literacy, confidence, hypothetical investment and saving decisions, and demand for information and education. We find that being informed about age differences has no significant effect. In contrast, being informed about gender differences increases the confidence of male respondents through a stereotype boost, while leaving female respondents largely unaffected. |
| Keywords: | survey experiment, numeracy, gender stereotypes, age stereotypes |
| JEL: | C90 D91 G53 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12384 |
| By: | Livia Alfonsi; Michal Bauer; Julie Chytilová; Edward Miguel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether economic hardship undermines preferences for honesty. We use controlled, high-stake measures of cheating for private benefit in a large sample of 5, 664 Kenyans, exploiting three complementary sources of variation: experimentally manipulated monetary incentives to cheat, a randomized increase in the salience of one’s own financial situation, and the Covid‑19 income shock (exploiting randomized survey timing, with respondents interviewed before vs. during the crisis). We find that cheating behavior is highly responsive to financial incentives in the experiment. Covid-19 economic hardship — marked by a 51% drop in monthly earnings — leads to a sharp increase in the prevalence of cheating, and the effect increases gradually with prolonged hardship. The effects are largest among the most economically impacted and are amplified when the salience of one’s own financial situation is experimentally increased. The results demonstrate that while most individuals exhibit a strong preference against cheating under normal conditions (in line with the existing body of work), economic forces can account for a substantial share of variation in dishonesty: the estimated cheating rate rises from 29% under low stakes in normal times to 86% under high stakes during the crisis. |
| Keywords: | economic hardship, honesty, cheating behavior, field experiment, Kenya |
| JEL: | D91 C93 O12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12398 |
| By: | Grace E. Steward; Mario Macis; Nicola Lacetera; Jeffrey P. Kahn; Vikram Chib |
| Abstract: | We conducted a within-subject laboratory experiment in which participants decided whether to experience physical discomfort for charity, with or without additional personal compensation. Acceptance decreased with greater discomfort and increased with both larger charitable donations and personal payments. We show that private monetary incentives and prosocial benefits interact in a less-than-additive way: personal compensation raises participation but attenuates the marginal impact of charitable donations, making the combined impact of private and social rewards smaller than the sum of their separate effects. We also find suggestive evidence that the sequencing of compensated and uncompensated choices may change the responsiveness to charitable benefits. Overall, our results indicate that context, especially the presence (and timing) of private rewards, can affect the relationship between incentives and prosocial behavior. |
| JEL: | D63 D64 D87 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34822 |
| By: | Felix Chopra; Ingar K. Haaland; Nicolas Roever; Christopher Roth |
| Abstract: | We test the effectiveness of different AI-delivered conversation protocols to increase people's motivation for change. In a large-scale experiment with 2, 719 social media users, we randomly assign participants to a control conversation or one of three treatment arms: two Motivational Interviewing protocols promoting self-persuasion (change focus or decisional balance) and a direct persuasion protocol providing unsolicited advice and information. All conversations are led by an AI interviewer, enabling standardized delivery of each protocol at scale. Our results show that all three interventions significantly increase motivation for change and the perceived costs of social media use, with change-focused self-persuasion yielding the largest effects. These effects persist and translate into self-reported reductions in social media use more than two weeks after the intervention. Our findings illustrate how AI-led conversations can serve as a scalable platform both for delivering behavioral interventions and for testing what makes them effective by systematically varying how conversations are conducted. |
| Keywords: | AI interviews, scaling, motivation, persuasion, social media, beliefs |
| JEL: | C90 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12410 |
| By: | Javier Olivera (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research; National Bank of Belgium, and Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru); Paola Villa-Paro (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We conducted an online survey experiment in Lima to study how perceptions of social class shape support for economic redistribution. Participants were randomly informed about either their actual socio-economic status (SES) or the true share of affluent households in their district. Respondents substantially overestimated their own SES and, to a lesser extent, the prevalence of affluent households. Correcting these misperceptions generally increased support for redistribution, with no effect on a wealth-tax proposal. Effects were especially strong when respondents had misjudged their SES by two or more levels: even those predisposed against redistribution (e.g., right-leaning, individualistic, or sceptical of government) increased their support. Similar patterns also emerged when correcting beliefs about the local distribution of SES. |
| Keywords: | Preferences for redistribution, inequality perceptions, beliefs, wealth taxes, Peru |
| JEL: | H24 D31 D63 E62 H53 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2026-690 |
| By: | Lars Behlen; Raphael Brade; Oliver Himmler; Robert Jäckle |
| Abstract: | Opportunity costs are central to economic decision-making but often neglected. In a pre-registered experiment with 2, 222 German university freshmen, one treatment provides salary information; another additionally frames it as the opportunity cost of delayed graduation. Only the opportunity cost framing causes students to update salary expectations. We find no effect on academic progress but a 2.8 percentage points increase in first-semester dropout (p=0.080), concentrated among high-dropout-probability students (5.9 pp, p=0.025). For these marginal students, dropping out instead of progressing faster is the actionable margin. By semester three, dropout rates converge, suggesting acceleration of eventual exits rather than additional dropouts. |
| Keywords: | natural field experiment, opportunity cost neglect, earnings expectations, academic achievement |
| JEL: | C93 D84 D91 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12487 |
| By: | David Gill; Victoria Prowse; J. Lucas Reddinger |
| Abstract: | Teamwork and collaboration are increasingly important. To understand the dynamics of teamwork skill formation, we provide the first systematic analysis of dynamic investment in teamwork skill. First, adopting a dynamic game approach, we develop a novel theoretical framework where investment in team skill creates persistent benefits and externalities for teammates, but where investment is risky because the benefits depend on successful team coordination. Second, we take this framework to the laboratory to study empirically the factors that influence dynamic investment in team skill. We find underinvestment compared to the efficient benchmark. However, investment in team skill responds strongly to incentives, in line with specific patterns predicted by our theory. We also find that people’s theory of mind and propensity to coordinate predict how much they invest in team skill. We conclude that careful design of team incentives and selection of team members can facilitate the dynamic development of teamwork skills. |
| Keywords: | Teamwork, investment, skill, coordination, theory of mind, dynamic game, repeated game, basin of attraction, subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium, Stag Hunt game, experiment, machine learning |
| JEL: | C73 C92 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1355 |
| By: | Garance Genicot; Zahra Mansoor; Ghazala Mansuri |
| Abstract: | Frontline workers in public bureaucracies perform multidimensional tasks and rely on supervisors who both monitor performance and supply essential managerial inputs. We study how incentive design should account for these interactions using a conceptual framework and a province-wide randomized experiment with the Punjab Agriculture Extension Department in Pakistan. Across 131 tehsils, we compare: (i) an Objective pay-for-performance scheme tied to digital activity metrics; (ii) a Subjective scheme in which supervisors allocate bonuses; and (iii) a Subjective Plus scheme that preserves discretion but introduces light-touch oversight of supervisors. All three schemes increase outreach, but through distinct channels. Objective incentives primarily raise intensive effort—repeat visits to the same farmers—while Subjective Plus expands the extensive margin by inducing supervisors to schedule more farmer trainings and broaden geographic coverage. Contrary to standard multitasking concerns, meeting length—a proxy for engagement quality—increases across all arms. Oversight of supervisors also reduces favoritism in bonus allocation and improves merit-based evaluation, leading to greater access and yield gains among marginalized farmers. The results show that light-touch monitoring of middle management can substantially amplify the effectiveness and equity of performance pay in multi-layered bureaucracies. |
| JEL: | D23 O12 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34825 |
| By: | Elisa Stumpf (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, CESifo) |
| Abstract: | We study beliefs about wealth inequality and preferences for wealth redistribution, drawing on a large-scale online survey in Germany. Specifically, we assess participants’ knowledge of the German wealth distribution, their perceived position within it, and the effects of two information treatments on redistribution preferences. While we find no significant average treatment effects across the full sample, a systematic data-driven analysis reveals important heterogeneities across several of our covariates, offering detailed insights into the roles of age, trust in official statistics and institutions, and individual wealth. |
| Keywords: | wealth distribution, preferences for redistribution, inequality, survey experiment, information provision |
| JEL: | C90 D31 D63 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-003 |
| By: | Rachel Glennerster; Joanna Murray; Victor Pouliquen |
| Abstract: | This paper tests whether the arrival of mass media triggers a decline in fertility, a central prediction of modernization theory. Using a field experiment, we vary exposure to mass media and its content in a quarter of Burkina Faso. We provide radios to 1, 600 women without previous access to mass media. Half live in status quo areas and half in areas where the local radio station was randomly selected to air a science-based family planning campaign. Contrary to modernization theory and previous literature, gaining access to status quo mass media decreases contraception use by 14 percent and reinforces traditional gender norms. In contrast, receiving a radio in campaign areas boosts contraception use by 16 percent. The campaign also led to a 9 percent reduction in births and a 0.3 standard deviation increase in reported welfare. Reduced belief in misinformation rather than shifts in attitudes and preferences drives the result. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 L82 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34829 |
| By: | Thomas R. Cook; Sophia Kazinnik; Zach Modig; Nathan M. Palmer |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) are now used for economic reasoning, but their implicit "preferences" are poorly understood. We study these preferences by analyzing revealed choices in canonical allocation games and a sequential job-search environment. In dictator-style allocation games, most models favor equal splits, consistent with inequality aversion. Structural estimation of Fehr-Schmidt parameters suggests this aversion exceeds levels typically observed in human experiments. However, LLM preferences prove malleable. Interventions such as prompt framing (e.g., masking social context) and control vectors reliably shift models toward more payoff-maximizing behavior, while persona-based prompting has more limited impact. We then extend our analysis to a sequential decision-making environment based on the McCall job search model. Here, we recover implied discount factors from accept/reject behavior, but find that responses are less consistently rationalizable and preferences more fragile. Our findings highlight two core insights: (i) LLMs exhibit structured, latent preferences that often align with human behavioral norms, and (ii) these preferences can be steered, albeit more effectively in simple settings than in complex, dynamic ones. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral economics; Game theory; Search and matching models |
| JEL: | C63 C68 C61 D14 D83 D91 E20 E21 |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:102439 |
| By: | Steffen Altmann; Robert Mahlstedt; Malte Rattenborg; Alexander Sebald; Sonja Settele; Johannes Wohlfart |
| Abstract: | In a field experiment with 9, 000 Danish job seekers, we study how unemployed workers’ wage expectations affect job search and re-employment. In our survey, we generate exogenous variation in respondents' wage expectations by informing a random half of them about re-employment wages of comparable workers. The intervention increases job-finding as measured in administrative data for both initially optimistic and initially pessimistic respondents, but through different channels: initial optimists lower their reservation wages and intensify search, while pessimists raise reservation wages and redirect applications toward local vacancies. Consistent with spatial search frictions, narrowing the geographic scope accelerates job finding among pessimists. |
| Keywords: | expectations, job search |
| JEL: | D83 D84 J64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12420 |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurial ventures typically require multiple independent conditions to hold simultaneously for success. This paper develops a formal framework for decision-making under such multiplicative uncertainty. When a venture's success depends on several factors—each of which must resolve favourably—even modestly uncertain factors compound to produce low overall success probabilities. I introduce the concept of a miracle budget: the maximum aggregate uncertainty a venture can carry while remaining viable. The miracle budget increases with a venture's payoff-to-cost ratio but only logarithmically, so even transformative opportunities buy only modest additional slack in aggregate uncertainty. The framework characterises optimal experimentation strategies, including the value of information from different experimental designs, conditions for optimal sequencing of experiments, and the allocation of experimental effort across uncertain factors. A hierarchical model distinguishes real miracles—genuinely uncertain factors that can only be resolved by trying—from apparent miracles—factors that seem uncertain but can be resolved through investigation. The framework yields actionable principles for early-stage entrepreneurs: compute your budget, prioritise low-cost tests with high “kill” probability (and, when experiment costs are similar, start with the most uncertain factors), and focus early-stage work on learning how many miracles you actually face. |
| JEL: | D81 D83 L26 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34850 |
| By: | Pietro Bini; Lin William Cong; Xing Huang; Lawrence J. Jin |
| Abstract: | Do generative AI models, particularly large language models (LLMs), exhibit systematic behavioral biases in economic and financial decisions? If so, how can these biases be mitigated? Drawing on the cognitive psychology and experimental economics literatures, we conduct the most comprehensive set of experiments to date$-$originally designed to document human biases$-$on prominent LLM families across model versions and scales. We document systematic patterns in LLM behavior. In preference-based tasks, responses become more human-like as models become more advanced or larger, while in belief-based tasks, advanced large-scale models frequently generate rational responses. Prompting LLMs to make rational decisions reduces biases. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.09362 |
| By: | Sarah Langlotz; Johannes Matzat; Axel Dreher; Christopher Parsons |
| Abstract: | Do factual immigration updates shift societal concerns across political ideologies? Conducting an online experiment in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, respondents provided local immigrant stock and flow estimates before being randomized to receive realistic information on stocks or flows, framed as constant or rising. Most respondents overestimate stocks and flows, with asymmetries emerging across ideologies. Information treatments lower redistribution and tax concerns by 5.4 percentage points on average. Immigration attitudes remain unchanged. Liberals overestimate stocks most, responding to stock treatments. Conservatives overstate flows more, responding to flow information. This pattern is consistent with motivated reasoning: identity-linked immigration views are resistant to correction, while redistribution concerns are elastic to facts when information targets the migration dimension most salient to each ideology. |
| Keywords: | migrant stocks, migrant flows, information, political ideology, United States |
| JEL: | J15 F52 F63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12390 |
| By: | Karina Colombo (European University Institute); Elisa Failache (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | We conduct an information experiment on screen exposure in early childhood by providing caregivers with recommendations based on recognized health institutions through an online video and digital leaflet. We evaluate the effectiveness of this light touch intervention using original data on the quantity and quality of screen exposure.We find null effects for screen time and quality of exposure in the overall sample, with mild effects on parental beliefs. However, caregivers belonging to vulnerable groups improve their beliefs and their child’s quality of screen exposure.In addition, we find suggestive evidence of strong survey effects from the self-assessment of parenting practices motivated by the completion of the questionnaire. These results provide evidence to design policies that promote skill acquisition from digital technologies by changing parental beliefs and practices. |
| Keywords: | information experiment, parental beliefs and investments, screen media, infants and toddlers |
| JEL: | C93 D83 O15 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-25 |
| By: | Luca Braghieri; Leonardo Bursztyn; Jan Fasnacht |
| Abstract: | Voting-based collective decisions are typically made either anonymously or publicly. Anonymous voting protects truthful expression but conceals individual behavior; public voting provides information about individual votes, but, when one option is socially stigmatized, it can distort participation and choices. We introduce threshold majority voting, in which voters choose a disclosure threshold determining whether and when their votes are revealed. In an experiment at UC Berkeley on the participation of transgender women in women’s sports, public voting nearly doubles abstention and reduces support for the stigmatized option. Threshold voting eliminates these distortions while revealing one-third of individual votes. |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D82 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34827 |
| By: | Julia Cagé; Malka Guillot; Yuchen Huang |
| Abstract: | In many countries, both charitable and political donations benefit from generous – and often similar – tax incentives. While a large literature has studied the tax-price elasticity of charitable giving, little is known about political donations. Using a large-scale survey experiment (N = 12, 600), we investigate the relative efficiency of different tax schemes in fostering political and charitable donations. We document that repealing the existing non-refundable income-tax credit decreases charitable donations but not political donations, pointing toward greater fiscal incentives behind charitable giving. We next show that, conditional on giving, matching – where the government matches individual donations at a fixed rate – increases both political and charitable giving, but that it decreases the probability of giving to charities at the extensive margin. Finally, using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and generic machine learning, we document important dimensions of heterogeneity, and discuss the policy implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | charitable giving, political donations, tax incentives |
| JEL: | H24 H31 L38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12444 |
| By: | Yi-Chun Chen; Ruoyu Wang; Xinhan Zhang |
| Abstract: | Belief elicitation is ubiquitous in experiments but can distort behavior in the main tasks. We study when, and how, an experimenter can ask for a series of action-dependent belief statistics after a subject chooses an action, while incentivize truthful reports without distorting the subject's optimal action in the main experimental tasks. We first propose a novel mechanism called the Counterfactual Scoring Rule (CSR), which achieves such nondistortionary elicitation of any single belief statistic by decomposing it into supplemental action-independent statistics. In contrast, when eliciting a fixed set of belief statistics without such decomposition, we show that robust nondistortionary elicitation is achievable if and only if the questions satisfy a joint alignment condition with the task payoff. The necessity of joint alignment is established through a graph theoretical approach, while its sufficiency follows from invoking an adaptation of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism. Our characterization applies to experiments with general task-payoff structures and belief elicitation questions. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.10474 |
| By: | Sana Khalil |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how gender and residential socioeconomic status shape hiring outcomes in the information technology sector using a field experiment from the city of Karachi, Pakistan. Employers in Pakistan can openly state preferences regarding gender, residential location, and other characteristics, but the majority in the information technology sector choose not to do so. This creates an opportunity to examine whether discrimination persists when such biases are not explicitly stated. An analysis of explicitly gender-targeted job ads shows that men are preferred over women across most occupations, even in traditionally pink-collar roles. Moreover, results from a resume audit experiment, submitting 2, 032 applications to 508 full-time job openings, show that men receive more callbacks for job interviews than women, even in the absence of explicit gender preferences in job ads. The study also indicates a significant premium favoring candidates from high-income areas, who receive 45 percent more callbacks than applicants from low-income neighborhoods. This advantage remains robust even after controlling for commuting distance. Qualitative interviews with human resource officials suggest that employers associate productivity with both gender and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Residential address acts as a proxy for class background and signals education, skills, and perceived "fit" in professional settings. These perceptions may reinforce stereotypes, disadvantaging women and candidates from low-income backgrounds. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.08134 |
| By: | Ugo Antonio Troiano (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | About one-fourth of U.S. couples rely on a sole earner, typically male. Social norms may help sustain this pattern by stigmatizing men who stay at home. I develop a theoretical model showing that such stigma can generate gender gaps in employment and wages, even without other gender differences. I test the channel using a novel online dating experiment in which 500 participants evaluated profiles randomly assigned signals of willingness to prioritize family. Dating intentions toward stay-at-home men decline significantly. The decline is stronger among participants without tertiary education, consistent with the model’s predictions, suggesting a limited but targeted stigma. |
| Keywords: | gender, employment, online dating, stigma. |
| JEL: | C93 J12 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202517 |
| By: | Duk Gyoo Kim; In Do Hwang |
| Abstract: | Population aging and the sustainability of retirement financing are critical challenges facing many developed economies. In South Korea, elderly poverty remains a critical issue, despite widespread homeownership among older adults. Although the home pension program allows retirees to unlock housing wealth, uptake remains below 2% as of 2024. Using a large-scale survey of adults aged 55–79, we conduct an information provision experiment to assess how policy reforms and belief corrections affect demand. We find that enrollment intention rises by 6 percentage points when monthly pension payments are adjusted with house price changes, and by 5 percentage points when bequest conditions are made more flexible. Notably, merely informing that the fixed monthly payments—often perceived as disadvantageous during housing price increases—do not result in a loss when house prices rise because the amount bequeathed to their children increases accordingly, led to a 7%p increase in enrollment intention. Our results suggest that addressing informational barriers may be as effective as structural reforms in increasing program uptake. |
| Keywords: | home pension, reverse mortgage, survey experiment |
| JEL: | D14 C93 H55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12477 |
| By: | Alex L. Brown; Ethan Park; Rodrigo A. Velez |
| Abstract: | We test whether lying aversion can steer equilibrium selection in mechanism design. In a principal-worker environment, the direct mechanism admits two dominant-strategy equilibria: the designer's target and a worker-optimal outcome. We show this limitation persists for all robust mechanisms, then ask whether framing misreports as explicit lies helps. We develop a 2X2 experiment that varies direct vs. extended mechanisms with implicit vs. explicit messages. We find that framing misreporting of type as an explicit lie shifts play away from the worker-optimal outcome toward truthful reporting, raising designer payoffs with minimal efficiency loss. These findings indicate that lying aversion is an effective lever for aligning behavior with social objectives. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.16973 |
| By: | Rohan Sweeney (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Farzana Hossain (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University, The Superpower Institute, Melbourne); Jumriani Ansar (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Indra Dwinata (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Sitti Andriani Anwar (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Arlyani Risal (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); Gang Chen (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne); Michaela F. Prescott (Faculty of Art Design & Architecture, Monash University); S Fiona Barker (School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University); Karin Leder (School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University); Ansariadi Ansariadi (Faculty of Public Health, Hasanuddin University, Makassar); David W. Johnston (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This study employs two discrete choice experiments (DCEs) conducted with two sample groups in Indonesia to investigate the informal settlement upgrading priorities of residents (sample 1) and explore how they align with public taxpayers’ preferences (sample 2). The first DCE explores the relative importance placed upon common planning and public health priorities, such as water security, drainage, and diarrhoea in children, alongside local economic development priorities. The second DCE investigates the relative importance placed upon project implementation design considerations, including project completion time and community consultation. Our findings reveal that residents particularly prioritise improvements in water quality and economic development. While informal settlement upgrading interventions often prioritise improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) to reduce diarrhoea and other water-borne disease, our study highlights that residents also highly value economic empowerment, underscoring the need for integrated upgrading approaches that address both health and livelihood concerns. Taxpayer perspectives were well-aligned on upgrading outcome priorities, but diverged slightly on project implementation. Whereas residents prioritized minimizing project duration and were less concerned with significant community consultation, taxpayers emphasized generating employment opportunities for residents within project designs. Both groups expressed an aversion to residents bearing full responsibility for resourcing ongoing operations and maintenance, preferring government or shared responsibility, highlighting the need for sustainable funding models. The study highlights the value of DCEs as a tool to support locally-led development, informing upgrading strategies that are more likely to be both politically feasible and successfully appropriated into urban livelihood practices of residents. |
| Keywords: | informal settlements, slum upgrading, infrastructure appropriation, locally-led development, discrete choice experiment |
| JEL: | O18 H41 I15 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2026-02 |
| By: | Brahma, Dweepobotee; Sangwan, Nikita |
| Abstract: | We study whether digital platforms for high-skilled professionals level the playing field or reproduce traditional gender inequalities. Using high-frequency data on physicians, we examine gender differences in labor supply, pricing, patient engagement, and platform visibility. Although the platform equalizes supply-side margins of working hours and fees, female physicians experience lower demand, reduced search visibility, and lower reputation metrics. Investigating the underlying mechanisms, experimental evidence indicates taste-based discrimination, while text-analysis of patient reviews finds no gender differential. These findings underscore the potential role of platforms in reducing institutional constraints but not demand-side biases, with reputation metrics playing a crucial mitigation role. |
| Keywords: | gender bias, digital platforms, healthcare, high-skilled professionals |
| JEL: | J16 J24 I11 O33 L86 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202602 |
| By: | Alina Kristin Bartscher; Georg Duernecker; Johannes Goensch; Nils Wehrhöfer |
| Abstract: | We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. We link the survey to credit register data and find that treated firms both increase their loan amounts and shift their loan structure toward longer-term, fixed-rate credit with lower interest rates. Using balance sheet data, we also show that treated firms invest more following the RCT. These effects are driven by small firms. We rationalize our findings in a stylized model of firms with imperfect information about the interest rate. |
| Keywords: | survey experiment, administrative data, firm expectations, incomplete information |
| JEL: | D14 D15 G51 E21 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12442 |
| By: | Maria A. Cattaneo; Stefan C. Wolter; Thea Zöllner |
| Abstract: | Switzerland features strong socio-economic segregation and no formal school choice, making residential relocation the only channel through which parents can access preferred schools. Identifying how parents value school attributes is therefore essential but challenging, given that choices bundle multiple characteristics. We address this by conducting a discrete choice experiment with nearly 2, 700 parents with school-aged children, allowing us to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for individual and combined school attributes. We find that a substantial minority of parents value academic quality so highly that their preferences are effectively price-insensitive. Among price-sensitive parents, academic quality remains central, but they also exhibit positive WTP for schools with fewer students with special educational needs and fewer non-native-speaking peers. Interaction effects are strong: WTP for reductions in special-needs peers is highest if the school is among the academically strongest. Accounting for attribute interactions further reveals marked heterogeneity, with parents clustering into seven distinct preference types. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, special needs education, school quality |
| JEL: | C4 H4 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12457 |
| By: | Gabriel Saco |
| Abstract: | Adaptive randomized experiments update treatment probabilities as data accrue, but still require an end-of-study interval for the average treatment effect (ATE) at a prespecified horizon. Under adaptive assignment, propensities can keep changing, so the predictable quadratic variation of AIPW/DML score increments may remain random. When no deterministic variance limit exists, Wald statistics normalized by a single long-run variance target can be conditionally miscalibrated given the realized variance regime. We assume no interference, sequential randomization, i.i.d. arrivals, and executed overlap on a prespecified scored set, and we require two auditable pipeline conditions: the platform logs the executed randomization probability for each unit, and the nuisance regressions used to score unit $t$ are constructed predictably from past data only. These conditions make the centered AIPW/DML scores an exact martingale difference sequence. Using self-normalized martingale limit theory, we show that the Studentized statistic, with variance estimated by realized quadratic variation, is asymptotically N(0, 1) at the prespecified horizon, even without variance stabilization. Simulations validate the theory and highlight when standard fixed-variance Wald reporting fails. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15559 |
| By: | Edward Freeland; Andrew Garin; Dmitri K. Koustas |
| Abstract: | We examine how workers perceive the trade-offs of freelancing using a novel survey design that explores the nature of workers' perceptions of their own jobs and the implications of work arrangements for their take-home pay. We find that, across several alternative classifications of freelance work, workers in such arrangements make less per hour than traditional employees, but report having greater control of when, where, and how they work. We find that on average, self-employed workers spend an additional 5 to 8 percentage points of gross pay covering unreimbursed expenses relative to traditional employees. However, when asked about expectations of net pay in freelance and traditional employment jobs with the same gross pay, respondents who received no quantitative information expected net pay to be higher in freelance arrangements than in employment arrangements, on average. This pattern reversed among respondents who were randomly assigned to receive customized estimates of their expected total expense and tax burdens in each arrangement, who estimated that freelance arrangements would generate lower net lower earnings than employment arrangements (consistent with the estimates we provided to them). This suggests that workers may not be fully aware of the tax and expense burdens freelance workers are responsible for. Interestingly, we find similar results both for workers who are currently employees in their main job and those who are currently self-employed, suggesting that the low salience of the tax and expense burdens associated with freelance work are not merely driven by those with no self-employment experience. |
| JEL: | H22 J33 J46 J48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34843 |
| By: | Jana Friedrichsen; Julia Schwarz; Michel Clement |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping society, including the music industry. Recent advancements in generative AI enable users to create music from text-based prompts, raising questions about public perception and valuation of AI-generated music. We conducted three studies with German-speaking participants (Study 1: N=2000, Study 2: N=425; Study 3: N=1248) to explore awareness, enjoyment, and willingness to pay for AI music. After finding no clear rejection of AI composed music in Study 1, Study 2 varied whether listeners knew the music was AI-generated. Study 3 involved regular listeners of pop and electronic dance music, manipulating song origin (human vs. AI) and disclosure. Results show that listeners generally could not distinguish between AI and human-made songs. When unaware, participants slightly preferred AI music and valued it equally. However, disclosing that AI had been used to create compositions reduced appreciation and willingness to pay. We explore how reactions differ by genre and individual attitudes toward AI and discuss implications for the music industry and for regulatory initiatives. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, music, willingness-to-pay, ethics of AI |
| JEL: | D12 Z11 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12405 |
| By: | Janssen, Bennet; Zhang, Youpeng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of ESG ratings and their divergence on retail investors' sustainable investment decisions. Using a survey with a framed choice experiment conducted with 2, 025 German retail investors, we document three key findings: (i) While about two in three investors claim they own sustainable equity funds, merely six percent actively incorporate ESG ratings into their own portfolio decisions; (ii) the sustainable investment is associated with the respondents' beliefs, motivations, and expectations; (iii) higher average ESG ratings increase investment in sustainable funds, but rating divergence reduces such allocations. We formally show that the results are consistent with an ESG portfolio choice model in which ESG rating divergence acts as noisy signals of sustainability and investors differ in their responsiveness based on rating credibility, sustainability preferences, and risk-return expectations. We provide further robust evidence that, while ESG rating divergence has a weaker effect on committed ESG investors, it significantly reduces the likelihood of sustainable investments among retail investors with lower exposure to green assets. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance, Portfolio Choices, ESG Ratings, Uncertainty, Investment Decisions |
| JEL: | G11 D14 G24 G41 G51 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336764 |
| By: | Rachel Schuh |
| Abstract: | Why do workers still segregate by sex across occupations, industries, and firms? Recent research has focused on how preferences for job amenities, like flexibility, may differ by sex. However, one “amenity” that has received relatively little attention is the sex composition of a job itself. In a recent paper, I conducted a survey experiment to estimate men’s and women’s preferences for sex composition in the workplace. One result is that women and young single men prefer jobs with at least half female coworkers. |
| Keywords: | workplace preferences; workplace composition; female; Male; labor |
| JEL: | J2 J7 |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:102483 |
| By: | Constanze Liepold (constanze.liepold@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de); Reinhard Madlener (RMadlener@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de) |
| Abstract: | The rapid electrification of private heating and mobility increases residential electricity demand and requires new mechanisms to stabilize power grids. Direct load control (DLC) offers a technically effective way to manage demand-side flexibility, yet its acceptance by private households remains uncertain. This study investigates willingness-to-accept (WTA) and preference structures for DLC programs in the German-speaking D-A-CH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), using a large-scale survey (N = 10, 346) and a choice-based conjoint experiment. Five core tariff attributes (financial compensation, intervention frequency, intervention duration, controllable technology, and Control Options) were evaluated across socio-economic groups using a hierarchical Bayes model. Financial compensation is found to be the most influential factor, followed by duration and frequency of interventions. Control Options are strongly preferred and associated with negative WTA values, indicating that autonomy substantially increases acceptance. Technology-related differences are found to be small: wallboxes require the highest compensation, while heat pumps and battery storage are generally well accepted. Cross-country differences in WTA are found to be statistically significant but modest, with Germany showing the highest compensation requirements. Socio-economic effects are minor. Overall, households accept DLC when interventions are short, predictable, and transparent, and when users retain basic control. These results suggest that effective DLC programs must combine fair compensation with autonomy safeguards and clear communication to ensure social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Direct load control; Demand-side flexibility; Socio-Economic Status; D-AC-H Region; Discrete Choice Experiment |
| JEL: | D12 C25 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:022308 |
| By: | Omri Feldman; Amar Venugopal; Jann Spiess; Amir Feder |
| Abstract: | Understanding the causal effects of text on downstream outcomes is a central task in many applications. Estimating such effects requires researchers to run controlled experiments that systematically vary textual features. While large language models (LLMs) hold promise for generating text, producing and evaluating controlled variation requires more careful attention. In this paper, we present an end-to-end pipeline for the generation and causal estimation of latent textual interventions. Our work first performs hypothesis generation and steering via sparse autoencoders (SAEs), followed by robust causal estimation. Our pipeline addresses both computational and statistical challenges in text-as-treatment experiments. We demonstrate that naive estimation of causal effects suffers from significant bias as text inherently conflates treatment and covariate information. We describe the estimation bias induced in this setting and propose a solution based on covariate residualization. Our empirical results show that our pipeline effectively induces variation in target features and mitigates estimation error, providing a robust foundation for causal effect estimation in text-as-treatment settings. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15730 |
| By: | Bussolo, Maurizio; Lee, Jean Nahrae; Mahmud, Mahreen; Sarma, Nayantara; Williams, Anaise |
| Abstract: | Can employer-side wage subsidies increase hiring women in low female labor force participation settings? This paper tests this using a randomized experiment with 1, 227 Pakistani firms on a national jobs platform. Treatment firms were offered a six-month wage subsidy determined via the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism. They were 11 percentage points more likely to hire a woman, with larger effects for male-only firms. After 18 months, the treatment effect on employing a woman persisted, although the firm-wide share of female employees did not change. Additionally, administrative data show the treated firms reduced male-preference language in job postings, consistent with emerging demand-side shifts. |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11317 |
| By: | Derks, Belle; Manzi, Francesca; van Laar, Colette; Ellemers, Naomi |
| Abstract: | Women remain underrepresented in leadership, particularly in traditionally masculine work settings. At the same time, the visibility of this imbalance has led to growing calls for diversifying leadership. This research examines how both men and women contribute to the preservation or disruption of gender inequality in masculine organizational contexts. Men remain the gatekeepers of change—deciding who rises to the top and under what conditions—while women face the strategic dilemma of fitting in by downplaying inequality (supporting the status quo, sometimes called ‘queen bee behaviour’) or ‘rocking the boat’ by advocating social change (challenging the status quo). Across five experimental studies (total N = 887), we examined how evaluators assessed male and female leadership candidates who either supported or challenged the status quo. Results revealed that although men favoured female over male candidates, they consistently preferred women who reinforced the status quo over those who advocated equality. By contrast, male candidates who supported the status quo were penalized, and female evaluators showed no such preferences. These findings highlight subtle mechanisms through which gendered power dynamics are maintained, underscoring both the strategic trade‐offs women must navigate to advance and the conditional nature of men's support for gender equality. |
| Keywords: | masculine defaults; gender stereotypes; women leaders; queen bee phenomenon; gender inequality; system justification |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137146 |
| By: | Alaa Elgayar (HU Berlin); Daniel Guhl (HU Berlin); Lucas Stich (University of Würzburg); Martin Spann (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | Mystery products deliberately hide key attributes until after purchase and have become a common strategy in retail and services, yet systematic evidence on how to design them effectively remains limited. This research studies two managerial levers---outcome-set composition and uncertainty framing (risk vs. ambiguity)---in two incentive-aligned choice experiments: an induced-value lab study with vertically differentiated outcomes and a large-scale choice-based conjoint on apparel with horizontally differentiated brands. Willingness-to-pay is shaped primarily by the structure of the outcome set: when a dominant outcome is included, consumers discount the mystery product; when outcomes are similar in value, a premium can emerge. Ambiguity reduces valuation primarily when outcome differentiation is high, and it shifts attention away from brand and ``mystery'' cues toward tangible attributes such as fit and color. In market simulations, mystery products are more price-elastic than fully specified alternatives and shift profits toward participating brands, especially weaker ones, while non-participants lose. Overall, the results inform when and how designed uncertainty can be used as a marketing instrument. |
| Keywords: | mystery products; choice-based conjoint; hierarchical bayes; market simulation; price competition; |
| JEL: | D81 D12 C25 |
| Date: | 2026–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:565 |
| By: | Theresa Hübsch (University of Bonn); Robert Mahlstedt (University of Copenhagen); Pia Pinger (University of Cologne, ECONtribute & MPI for Behavioral Economics Bonn); Sonja Settele (University of Cologne, ECONtribute & MPI for Behavioral Economics Bonn); Helene Willadsen (National Research Centre for the Working Environment) |
| Abstract: | Using surveys with Danish students transitioning to secondary education, we study mental models of how gender and parental education shape academic performance. Students hold heterogeneous beliefs about performance gaps by gender and parental background, which appear to be shaped by within-family transmission and broader social environments. Open-text responses reveal that respondents link strong performance by girls and less socioeconomically privileged students to effort, while attributing privileged students' success to external advantages. Mental models matter: beliefs about performance gaps predict enrollment in upper secondary education by gender and parental education and causally affect students’ self-assessments, intended effort, and educational aspirations, as shown in an information experiment with girls. We highlight two mechanisms: updating about the returns to effort and about gender-specific effort costs in response to observed gender performance gaps. Our findings advance the understanding of education choices and shed light on the determinants and effects of mental models in a high-stakes setting. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, Education, Inequality |
| JEL: | D83 D84 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:392 |
| By: | Theresa Hübsch; Robert Mahlstedt; Pia Pinger; Sonja Settele; Helene Willadsen |
| Abstract: | Using surveys with Danish students transitioning to secondary education, we study mental models of how gender and parental education shape academic performance. Students hold heterogeneous beliefs about performance gaps by gender and parental background, which appear to be shaped by within-family transmission and broader social environments. Open-text responses reveal that respondents link strong performance by girls and less socioeconomically privileged students to effort, while attributing privileged students' success to external advantages. Mental models matter: beliefs about performance gaps predict enrollment in upper secondary education by gender and parental education and causally affect students’ self-assessments, intended effort, and educational aspirations, as shown in an information experiment with girls. We highlight two mechanisms: updating about the returns to effort and about gender-specific effort costs in response to observed gender performance gaps. Our findings advance the understanding of education choices and shed light on the determinants and effects of mental models in a high-stakes setting. |
| Keywords: | mental models, educational inequality, gender, parental education background |
| JEL: | D83 D84 I24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12497 |
| By: | Sumin Kim; Jihoon Kwon; Yoon Kim; Nicole Kagan; Raffi Khatchadourian; Wonbin Ahn; Alejandro Lopez-Lira; Jaewon Lee; Yoontae Hwang; Oscar Levy; Yongjae Lee; Chanyeol Choi |
| Abstract: | Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes. While recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can generate forecasts competitive with human forecasters, it remains unclear how input context should be designed to support accurate prediction. In this paper, we study this question through experiments on earnings-call mention markets, which require forecasting whether a company will mention a specified keyword during its upcoming call. We run controlled comparisons varying (i) which contextual information is provided (news and/or prior earnings-call transcripts) and (ii) how \textit{market probability}, (i.e., prediction market contract price) is used. We introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which explicitly treats the market-implied probability as a prior and instructs the LLM to update this prior using textual evidence, rather than re-predicting the base rate from scratch. In our experiments, we find three insights: (1) richer context consistently improves forecasting performance; (2) market-conditioned prompting (MCP), which treats the market probability as a prior and updates it using textual evidence, yields better-calibrated forecasts; and (3) a mixture of the market probability and MCP (MixMCP) outperforms the market baseline. By dampening the LLM's posterior update with the market prior, MixMCP yields more robust predictions than either the market or the LLM alone. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.21229 |
| By: | Francesco Cinnirella; Sebastiano Della Lena; Elena Manzoni; Fabrizio Panebianco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how religious ethic influences contributions to public goods. We develop a theoretical model distinguishing individualistic motivations - where people seek to meet individual moral standards - from collectivistic motivations - where behavior is guided by others' expectations. We argue that the Protestant ethic emphasizes individual responsibility, while the Catholic ethic places greater weight on social expectations. The model predicts that the Protestant contribution share increases with income, whereas the Catholic contribution share is non-monotonic. Moreover, Catholics' overall contribution is relatively higher at lower-middle incomes and lower at higher-middle incomes, while there is no denominational difference in the decision whether to contribute at all. The model also implies that only Catholics' contributions are sensitive to the religious composition of their environment. We test these predictions using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, exploiting variation within individuals. Consistent with the theoretical model, we find (i) no denominational differences at the extensive margin; (ii) at the intensive margin, donations increase with income among Protestants and remain flat among Catholics. These results hold when using the denomination of the parents, suggesting intergenerational transmission of religious ethics. Our findings highlight the role of religious moral structures in shaping cooperative behavior and public-good provision. |
| Keywords: | public good, religion, individualism, collectivism, guilt aversion |
| JEL: | D91 H41 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12414 |
| By: | Jizhou Liu; Liang Zhong |
| Abstract: | Switchback experiments--alternating treatment and control over time--are widely used when unit-level randomization is infeasible, outcomes are aggregated, or user interference is unavoidable. In practice, experimentation must support fast product cycles, so teams often run studies for limited durations and make decisions with modest samples. At the same time, outcomes in these time-indexed settings exhibit serial dependence, seasonality, and occasional heavy-tailed shocks, and temporal interference (carryover or anticipation) can render standard asymptotics and naive randomization tests unreliable. In this paper, we develop a randomization-test framework that delivers finite-sample valid, distribution-free p-values for several null hypotheses of interest using only the known assignment mechanism, without parametric assumptions on the outcome process. For causal effects of interests, we impose two primitive conditions--non-anticipation and a finite carryover horizon m--and construct conditional randomization tests (CRTs) based on an ex ante pooling of design blocks into "sections, " which yields a tractable conditional assignment law and ensures imputability of focal outcomes. We provide diagnostics for learning the carryover window and assessing non-anticipation, and we introduce studentized CRTs for a session-wise weak null that accommodates within-session seasonality with asymptotic validity. Power approximations under distributed-lag effects with AR(1) noise guide design and analysis choices, and simulations demonstrate favorable size and power relative to common alternatives. Our framework extends naturally to other time-indexed designs. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.23257 |