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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Ferman, Bruno; Finamor, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they obtain. We test this hypothesis in a randomized experiment embedded in the recruitment process for research positions at a large international economic organization. In a coding task designed to assess candidates' programming abilities, we randomize whether participants obtain an expected or unexpected result if they commit a simple coding error. We find that individuals are almost 20% more likely to detect coding errors when they lead to unexpected results. This asymmetry in error detection depending on the results they generate suggests that coding errors may lead to biased findings in scientific research. |
| JEL: | C81 C80 C93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:266 |
| By: | Hammar, Olle; Bonander, Carl; Bensch, Gunther; Jakobsson, Niklas; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | Begum et al. (2018) study gender bias in parental attitudes using an experimental approach in rural Bangladesh. Households are reported as randomly assigned to treatment conditions in a lab-in-the-field allocation task. We show that the group assignment was inherited from Islam (2019), a previous non-randomized experiment conducted in the same region. The lack of randomization contradicts the design descriptions provided by the authors in Begum et al. (2018) and elsewhere, and raise concerns about the validity of comparisons across treatment groups. It also points to serious shortcomings in the reporting and transparency of the study design-issues that mirror those that led to the retraction of Islam (2019) from the European Economic Review. |
| Keywords: | Replication, Reproduction, Parental bias, Gender, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | B41 C12 C93 D13 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:267 |
| By: | Ala Avoyan; Daniela Valdivia |
| Abstract: | The paper examines how the timing of decisions shapes outcomes in coordination settings. Theoretically, the outcomes become predictable and efficient when decisions are made sequentially rather than simultaneously. Our experimental evidence shows that sequential moves promote remarkably high efficiency, and these effects are far less sensitive to increased group size. A key finding is that the sequential structure alters the distribution of strategic uncertainty in a group, aggregating it and allocating most of it to the first mover. Dynamic measures further reveal that coordination failures under simultaneous moves stem from weak resilience to setbacks rather than fragility of equilibria. |
| Keywords: | strategic uncertainty, order of moves, experiment |
| JEL: | C72 D81 C92 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12198 |
| By: | Roth, Jakob; Schwab, Laura; Hintermann, Beat; Götschi, Thomas; Meister, Adrian; Meyer de Freitas, Lucas; Axhausen, Kay W. |
| Abstract: | This study presents results from a randomized controlled trial involving 1, 085 participants in Switzerland that have access to an E-bike, a car, and public transport. The participants’ transport choices are monitored by means of a GPS-based tracking app. The treatment consists in a monetary incentive that approximates the main external costs and benefits associated with transport in the spirit of a Pigovian tax. This tax reduces transport-related external costs by 6.9 %, which corresponds to 78 Swiss francs per person and year (currently equivalent to 94 US dollars). The main underlying mechanism is a mode shift away from driving towards E-biking, public transport and walking. The results are primarily driven by individuals who own an S-pedelec with support up to 45 km/h, rather than users of the more common E-bikes that provide support up to 25 km/h. The pricing also induces a travel shift towards less congested time windows |
| Keywords: | Transport, Field experiment, GPS tracking, bicycle, E-bike, external costs, Pigovian taxation, transport pricing |
| JEL: | H23 H31 I18 Q54 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/05 |
| By: | Andrzej Baranski; Ernesto Reuben; Arno Riedl |
| Abstract: | In a laboratory experiment, we study the role of fairness ideals as focal points in coordination problems in homogeneous and heterogeneous groups. We elicit the normatively preferred behavior about how a subsequent coordination game should be played. In homogeneous groups, people share a unique fairness ideal how to solve the coordination problem, whereas in heterogeneous groups, multiple conflicting fairness ideals prevail. In the coordination game, homogeneous groups are significantly more likely than their heterogeneous counterparts to sustain efficient coordination. The reason is that homogeneous groups coordinate on the unique fairness ideal, whereas heterogeneous groups disagree on the fairness ideal to be played. In both types of groups, equilibria consistent with fairness ideals are most stable. Hence, the difference in coordination success between homogeneous and heterogeneous groups occurs because of the normative disagreement in the latter types of group, making it much harder to reach an equilibrium at a fairness ideal. |
| Keywords: | fairness ideals, focal points, coordination, cooperation, experiment |
| JEL: | H41 C92 D63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12195 |
| By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick); Gupta, Tanu (University of Southampton); Huang, Allen (Weiyi) (University of Oxford); Londono, Valentina (Universidad del Rosario); Saavedra, Santiago (Universidad del Rosario); Toma, Mattie (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | There is limited evidence on the non-health impacts of air pollution, including productivity in the workplace and behavior. We examine the effect of air pollution on participation, collaboration, and feedback provision in a workplace setting. Our experiment randomly assigns air purifiers to rooms at three large academic conferences to investigate the causal impact of air pollution on participants' engagement behavior. We construct a participant engagement index based on 12 presentation-level behavioral outcomes directly measured by conference observers through an online form and weigh each behavioral outcome using weights elicited from an expert survey. Conference rooms treated with air purifiers exhibit 48% less PM2.5 concentration compared to control rooms. However, we do not find a statistically significant change in engagement. Communication in the workplace might not be a large driver of the empirical relationship between air quality and productivity, albeit more research is needed across workplaces and measures of communication. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, workplace, engagement, indoor air quality |
| JEL: | Q53 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18154 |
| By: | George Gui; Seungwoo Kim |
| Abstract: | Pre-experiment stratification, or blocking, is a well-established technique for designing more efficient experiments and increasing the precision of the experimental estimates. However, when researchers have access to many covariates at the experiment design stage, they often face challenges in effectively selecting or weighting covariates when creating their strata. This paper proposes a Generative Stratification procedure that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to synthesize high-dimensional covariate data to improve experimental design. We demonstrate the value of this approach by applying it to a set of experiments and find that our method would have reduced the variance of the treatment effect estimate by 10%-50% compared to simple randomization in our empirical applications. When combined with other standard stratification methods, it can be used to further improve the efficiency. Our results demonstrate that LLM-based simulation is a practical and easy-to-implement way to improve experimental design in covariate-rich settings. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.25709 |
| By: | Din Amir; Bar Hoter; Moran Koren |
| Abstract: | This study examines strategic behavior in crowdfunding using a large-scale online experiment. Building on the model of Arieli et. al 2023, we test predictions about risk aversion (i.e., opting out despite seeing a positive private signal) and mutual insurance (i.e., opting in despite seeing a negative private signal) in a static, single-shot crowdfunding game, focusing on informational incentives rather than dynamic effects. Our results validate key theoretical predictions: crowdfunding mechanisms induce distinct strategic behaviors compared to voting, where participants are more likely to follow private signals (odds ratio: 0.139, $p |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14872 |
| By: | Gu, Jiancheng; Hauser, Christina Sarah; Zhu, Ziyue Jessie |
| Abstract: | Cappelen et al. (2025) conduct an online experiment among Chinese and Norwegian adults to measure and compare the acceptance of inequality among children in the two societies. They find a significantly higher acceptance of inequality among children in China. The acceptance of inequality among children is also affected by the source of inequality and the costs associated with redistribution and is found to predict respondents' attitudes towards child policies. In this discussion paper, we first successfully reproduce the main results of the paper. Doing so, we uncover a minor coding error, which, however, leaves the main results unchanged. We then conduct a number of robustness checks, including a redefinition of the main outcome variable and of some of the regressors. The main findings of the paper hold up to these robustness checks. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:268 |
| By: | Enrico G. De Giorgi (University of St. Gallen - SEPS: Economics and Political Sciences; Swiss Finance Institute); Thierry Post (Graduate School of Business of Nazarbayev University); Askhat Omar (Nazarbayev University - Graduate School of Business) |
| Abstract: | We present experimental evidence of systematic decision errors in dynamic portfolio choice. Participants created contingency plans in a lattice model. When returns were independent and identically distributed, most plans were near-optimal for plausible risk preferences. However, under dynamic probabilities, most plans were inefficient, even by First-degree Stochastic Dominance. Allocations showed a lack of sensitivity to probability shifts, consistent with myopic loss aversion. Decision quality improved when participants compared their original plan to precomputed optimal plans. Results highlight the importance of problem framing in dynamic choice and support a libertarian paternalistic approach to choice architecture design. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic portfolio choice, choice experiments, myopic loss aversion |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2578 |
| By: | Syngjoo Choi; Bongseop Kim; Young-Sik Kim; Ohik Kwon; Soeun Park |
| Abstract: | To overcome the lack of data in predicting the payment preference for central bank digital currency (CBDC), we conducted a discrete choice experiment that varied the attributes of payment methods among over 3, 500 participants in Korea. We identified key attributes, such as the discount rate and the issuance form, that shape the demand for payment methods. The predicted usage shares of existing payment methods closely align with their actual usage patterns in Korea, which lends credible support for the external validity of our experimental design. Building on this validation, we further predict that CBDC, when introduced, will be preferred over cash and mobile fast payment but less preferred than credit and debit cards, with its adoption rate as the most preferred payment method ranging 19−27% of respondents. |
| Keywords: | payment preference, retail CBDC, discrete choice experiment |
| JEL: | E40 E50 C90 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1296 |
| By: | Karine Brisset (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, F-25000 Besançon, France); Emmanuel Peterlé (Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, F-25000 Besançon, France) |
| Abstract: | Leniency programs encourage corporate cooperation with antitrust authorities by offering immunity or fine reductions for reporting illegal cartels. While prior studies suggest these programs discourage collusion and destabilize existing cartels, experimental evidence in environments with unrestricted communication indicates that the effectiveness of leniency is not clear-cut. We conduct a laboratory experiment in such an environment to examine the interaction between leniency programs and follow-on private damages, proposing the use of Fair Funds to maintain victim compensation and preserve incentives for leniency application. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we find that the prospect of private damages can increase cartel formation, though this effect is mitigated when our Fair Funds compensation scheme is introduced. In addition, leniency applications decline when private damages are introduced, but this decline is partially offset by the presence of Fair Funds. |
| Keywords: | Antitrust, Illegal Cartels, Leniency Programs, Private Damages |
| JEL: | C92 D03 K21 K42 L41 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2025-12 |
| By: | Undral Byambadalai; Tomu Hirata; Tatsushi Oka; Shota Yasui |
| Abstract: | We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to identify the local distributional treatment effect-the difference in outcome distributions between treatment and control groups for the subpopulation of compliers. We propose a regression-adjusted estimator based on a distribution regression framework with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions, enabling robustness and flexibility with high-dimensional covariates. Our approach accommodates continuous, discrete, and mixed discrete-continuous outcomes, and applies under a broad class of covariate-adaptive randomization schemes, including stratified block designs and simple random sampling. We derive the estimator's asymptotic distribution and show that it achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation results demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance, and we demonstrate the method's practical relevance in an application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15594 |
| By: | Maja Adena (WZ Berlin, TU Berlin); Steffen Huck (WZB, University College London); Levent Neyse (WZB Berlin, DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | While almost all charities rely on a set of donor appreciation strategies, their effectiveness for the success of fundraising campaigns is underresearched. Through two preregistered field studies conducted in collaboration with a leading German opera house (N=10, 000), we explore the significance of expressing gratitude and examine two different approaches to doing so. Our first study investigates the impact of a "thank you in advance" statement in fundraising letters, a common strategy among fundraisers. In the second study, we explore the effectiveness of handwritten thank-you postcards versus printed postcards, shedding light on the roles of personalization and handwriting in donor appeals. Our findings challenge conventional wisdom, revealing that neither “thank you in advance” nor handwritten thank-you notes significantly affect donor contributions. |
| Keywords: | fundraising; charitable giving; gratitude; field experiment; |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:547 |
| By: | Natalia Amaya (Fundación Prolongar); Allison Benson (Acción Pública Community Think Tank, Colombia.); Juan José Rojas (Acción Pública Community Think Tank, Colombia.); Renata Serna Hosie (Fundación Prolongar) |
| Abstract: | Classism remains an understudied and often underquestioned form of discrimination. Comprehending the way in which classism is perceived, lived, and challenged is an important step towards transforming this social reality. To analyze how individuals conceptualize classism and how awareness of classism can be increased, we carried out a labin- the-field experiment in Colombia. Drawing on literature that highlights the potential of education, narratives, and the arts to challenge discriminatory biases, we designed two interventions and tested their effects on perceptions around classism. The first intervention fostered out-ward looking reflections on classism through the narratives of characters depicted in a unique documentary about social class. We designed a second intervention to stimulate inward looking reflections by guiding participants through an immersive experience using artistic tools—such as visual arts, storytelling and movement. Our findings show that, despite their brevity, both interventions effectively increased awareness of classism. We measured awareness as an individually-relevant issue and as a socially-relevant issue, and found statistically significant effects in both cases. These results contribute to the literature on social perceptions of discrimination, classism, and awareness-building, and provide evidence of the potential of reflective tools using narrative and the arts to foster social change. |
| Keywords: | Classism, inequality, perceptions, arts-based experiments, Colombia |
| JEL: | D63 D91 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021686 |
| By: | Luis Araujo; Leo Ferraris; Marco Mantovani; Daniela Puzzello |
| Abstract: | Sovereign digital currencies are about to be launched in several countries. A key feature of this intangible counterpart of cash is its traceability. Using a microfounded monetary model, we show that traceability can be exploited to incentivize liquidity transfers among traders, thus stimulating production and trade. We empirically test the theoretical prediction through a controlled laboratory experiment. We find that sovereign digital currency stimulates production and trade, provided that the authorities actively help promote its acceptability. |
| Keywords: | digital currency, cash, monetary policy, laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | E40 C90 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:557 |
| By: | Fawaz, Yarine (CEMFI, Madrid); Hospido, Laura (Bank of Spain); Martí Llobet, Júlia (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of a randomized activation program targeting recipients of the Spain’s national Minimum Income Scheme. The intervention combined personalized coaching, job-search assistance, soft-skills training, and, in one treatment arm, also digital-skills workshops. While short-run employment effects were limited, the program significantly reduced the prevalence of informal work and improved participants’ financial resilience. Gains were particularly pronounced among those who received the digital-skills component, who reported large improvements in digital task performance. Half a year after receiving the treatment, administrative social security records show emerging positive effects on days worked, contract stability, and full-time employment, especially in the digital-skills group. We also find evidence of a psychological awareness effect: low-engagement participants reported lower self-assessed transversal skills, possibly reflecting a shift in self-perception. Our findings highlight the potential of multidimensional, personalized activation strategies to foster formalization and digital inclusion among low-income populations. |
| Keywords: | randomized controlled trial, active labor market policies, social inclusion |
| JEL: | I32 I38 E24 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18169 |
| By: | Maxwell Rosenthal |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a fully prior-free model of experimentation in which the decision maker observes the entire distribution of signals generated by a known experiment under an unknown distribution of the state of the world. One experiment is robustly more informative than another if the decision maker's maxmin expected utility after observing the output of the former is always at least her maxmin expected utility after observing the latter. We show that this ranking holds if and only if the less informative experiment is a linear transformation of the more informative experiment; equivalently, the null space of the more informative experiment is a subset of the null space of the less informative experiment. Our criterion is implied by Blackwell's order but does not imply it, and we show by example that our ranking admits strictly more comparable pairs of experiments than the classical ranking. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08709 |
| By: | Gabriel Burdin; Fabio Landini |
| Abstract: | Why does capital typically hire labor rather than the other way around? Employee-owned firms with majority workforce control—such as worker cooperatives—remain rare in market economies, despite evidence that they perform at least as well as investor-owned firms across various contexts. In this paper, we examine whether beliefs help explain this puzzle by shaping policy preferences and willingness to work in such organizations. In a preregistered experiment guided by a detailed pre-analysis plan, we randomly exposed 2, 000 young adults to information from an international expert survey. Respondents held more pessimistic prior beliefs about worker cooperatives compared to experts. Information exposure led to more optimistic beliefs and increased support for pro-cooperative policies. Text analysis of open-ended responses reveals fewer negative and more positive first-order concerns about cooperatives in the treatment group. We also find suggestive evidence of a relative re-ranking of career intentions in favor of worker cooperatives. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, Career Intentions, Job Attributes, Preferences, Employee Ownership, Cooperatives, Information Experiment Jel Classification:C91, D83, J24, J54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:932 |
| By: | Abril Arteaga, Andres Sebastian; Rangel, Marcos; Zanoni, Wladimir |
| Abstract: | We developed a Labor Market Turing Test (LMTT) to measure human-AI decision alignment using data from 277 human recruiters engaged in a field experiment set in Quito, Ecuador. We augmented the pool of recruiters by creating AI teams, each of which with differing impersonation of human-like traits, and compared their choices to humans and a benchmark AI model. While AI teams were more consistent, they selected candidates with a pattern that markedly different from human choices. In fact, random decisions mir- rored human choices more closely than our most human-like AI agents. These findings reveal a fundamental tension between algorithmic consistency and human judgment. That humans were closer to a random process when com- paring candidates with equal productivity might be seen as a fairer outcome. Our LMTT framework, which involves isolating and estimating a machina la- tent trait, provides a quantitative tool for assessing human-AI alignment which can be employed across critical domains, such as healthcare, justice, and edu- cation, thereby informing the design and AI governance. |
| Keywords: | Algorithmic Fairness;Human-AI Alignment;Latent Trait Analysis |
| JEL: | J71 M51 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14296 |
| By: | Fazio, Andrea; Reggiani, Tommaso; Santori, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper experimentally examines Max Weber's thesis on the influence of religious narratives - particularly the Protestant Ethic - on attitudes toward wealth redistribution. Weber argued that the Protestant Reformation fostered the belief that economic success signals divine favour, thereby legitimising wealth inequality. We test this idea using a variation of the dictator game, leveraging a religious narrative that casts the dictator's role - and the endowment of wealth - as a divine blessing. By exogenously evoking the blessingof- wealth narrative to different religious groups, we then examine how subjects' redistribution behaviour is affected. Our findings reveal that low-income Protestants exposed to the blessing narrative are significantly less inclined to redistribute wealth than their Catholic counterparts, consistent with Weber's claim that Protestantism can serve to rationalise inequality through the lens of divine providence. A complementary narrative analysis further reveals that Protestants, Calvinists, Methodists, and Atheists tend to interpret blessings as a sign of divine election that is contingent upon wealth. In contrast, Catholics more often associate them with spiritual meanings alone. These results underscore the decisive role of religious narratives in shaping economic preferences, providing empirical support for Weber's enduring thesis. |
| Keywords: | experimental economics, Max Weber, religious narratives, pro-social behaviour, redistribution |
| JEL: | J14 J15 Z12 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1505r |
| By: | Hospido, Laura (Bank of Spain); Varela, Begoña (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a program that seeks to improve the levels of social inclusion of families with children and adolescents receiving the National Minimum Income Scheme (IMV) and/or the Regional Inclusion Income (RISGA) in the seven largest municipalities in Galicia, Spain. The intervention used stratified random assignment to evaluate the effectiveness of a new model of personalized and integral support, according to the specific needs of each member of the target family, with multiple interventions grouped into three packages (social, educational and labor). The control group received the usual financial aid from the traditional model. The analysis reveals that the treatment significantly reduces child material deprivation. Positive effects are also found in the synthetic indicator of social inclusion, with the greatest improvements concentrated in the measures of housing conditions, parental responsibilities, community integration, and education. The treatment, however, does not have a significant effect on simplified poverty indicators, on employability, or on income from work, despite an improvement in the activation of household members to search for employment. |
| Keywords: | randomized controlled trial, children, families, social inclusion |
| JEL: | I32 I38 E24 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18170 |
| By: | Saraswat, Deepak (University of Connecticut); Sabarwal, Shwetlena (World Bank); Lacey, Lindsey (Allegheny County Department of Human Services); Jha, Natasha (University of Notre Dame); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Cohen, Rachel (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Nearly 200 million children under five in low- and middle-income countries face developmental deficits despite growing access to early childhood services. We report evidence from a randomized controlled trial (N=3, 131 children in 201 schools) in Nepal’s government system that tested three models combining classroom quality with parental engagement. All teachers received a 15-day training on pedagogy, standards, and caregiver outreach, after which schools were randomly assigned to models where caregiver sessions were led by teachers alone, teachers supported with in-class helpers, or external facilitators. The program raised children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations and improved caregiver engagement by similar magnitudes, with strongest effects when teachers received support that preserved classroom quality while engaging families. Gains were concentrated among disadvantaged households, underscoring the potential to reduce early inequalities. Mechanism analysis shows that the program shifted home and school inputs from substitutes to complements, creating reinforcing pathways for child development. |
| Keywords: | non-cognitive skills, cognitive skills, early childhood development, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Nepal |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18159 |
| By: | Deschacht, Nick (KU Leuven); Guillemyn, Inés (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates individuals’ willingness to pay for pension benefits using a discrete choice experiment with fictitious job advertisements conducted among workers in the United Kingdom (UK). The results indicate that workers are willing to trade off current pay for additional pension benefits, with the marginal worker willing to forgo 0.3% of their current wage for a one percentage point increase in pension benefits. Willingness to pay varies significantly across individuals, increasing with proximity to retirement age, higher income levels, financial planning and financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment (DCE), wage-pension trade-off, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | C9 D9 J16 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18164 |
| By: | Daniel P\'erez-Troncoso |
| Abstract: | Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are widely used to elicit preferences for products or services by analyzing choices among alternatives described by their attributes. The quality of the insights obtained from a DCE heavily depends on the properties of its experimental design. While early DCEs often relied on linear criteria such as orthogonality, these approaches were later found to be inappropriate for discrete choice models, which are inherently non-linear. As a result, statistically efficient design methods, based on minimizing the D-error to reduce parameter variance, have become the standard. Although such methods are implemented in several commercial tools, researchers seeking free and accessible solutions often face limitations. This paper presents DCEtool, an R package with a Shiny-based graphical interface designed to support both novice and experienced users in constructing, decoding, and analyzing statistically efficient DCE designs. DCEtool facilitates the implementation of serial DCEs, offers flexible design settings, and enables rapid estimation of discrete choice models. By making advanced design techniques more accessible, DCEtool contributes to the broader adoption of rigorous experimental practices in choice modelling. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15326 |
| By: | Wanda Schleder (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effectiveness of a factorial intervention aimed at improving emotional skills done at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in the winter-semester 2023/2024. The four intervention components, mindfulness, emotional regulation, self-acceptance, and resource activation, were evaluated with respect to their impact on emotional skills and other well-being outcomes. Due to a high dropout rate, no definitive conclusions can be drawn about the optimal composition of training components. However, resource activation shows a significantly positive effect on stress and a depression-related score. The findings also indicate that the Big Five personality traits play a crucial role in determining outcome variables. In addition, several approaches to estimating treatment effects were compared. The results suggest that a regression approach that directly accounts for all intervention factors and baseline scores should be preferred over simpler effect size measures. |
| Keywords: | non-cognitive skills, emotional skill intervention, factorial experiment, effect sizes |
| JEL: | C93 I10 I19 I31 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | Mingqian Guan; Komei Fujita; Naoya Sueishi; Shota Yasui |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identification; however, IPW-transformed outcomes are known to be noisy, even when true propensity scores are used. To address this issue, we introduce a noise reduction procedure and estimate a linear CATE model using Lasso, achieving both accuracy and interpretability. We theoretically show that denoising reduces the prediction error of the Lasso. The method is particularly effective when treatment effects are small relative to the variability of outcomes, which is often the case in empirical applications. Applications to the Get-Out-the-Vote dataset and Criteo Uplift Modeling dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms fully nonparametric machine learning methods in identifying individuals with higher treatment effects. Moreover, our method uncovers informative heterogeneity patterns that are consistent with previous empirical findings. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10527 |
| By: | Flörchinger, Daniela; Perino, Grischa; Frondel, Manuel; Jarke, Johannes Stephan |
| Abstract: | Decommissioning of coal-fired power plants is a widely known emission abatement option, but one with a limited effect due to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). In contrast, tightening the cap in the EU ETS is a highly effective, but less known mitigation option. This article empirically analyzes whether informing individuals about the effectiveness of these abatement options increases support for more effective climate policies. The analysis is based on an online survey experiment involving actual cancellation of emission allowances and curbing the output of a coal-fired power plant. We find that preferences over abatement options are driven by their perceived effectiveness. Moreover, we provide causal evidence that voters update their preference rankings when exposed to relevant information. |
| Abstract: | Die Stilllegung von Kohlekraftwerken ist eine weithin bekannte Option zur Emissionsminderung, deren Wirkung jedoch aufgrund des EU-Emissionshandelssystems (EU-EHS) begrenzt ist. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Verschärfung der Obergrenze im EU-EHS eine hochwirksame, aber weniger bekannte Minderungsoption. In diesem Artikel wird empirisch analysiert, ob die Aufklärung der Bevölkerung über die Wirksamkeit dieser Minderungsoptionen die Unterstützung für wirksamere Klimaschutzmaßnahmen erhöht. Die Analyse basiert auf einem Online-Umfrageexperiment, bei dem Emissionszertifikate tatsächlich gestrichen und die Leistung eines Kohlekraftwerks gedrosselt wurden. Wir stellen fest, dass die Präferenzen hinsichtlich der Emissionsminderungsmaßnahmen von ihrer wahrgenommenen Wirksamkeit abhängen. Darüber hinaus liefern wir kausale Belege dafür, dass Wähler ihre Präferenzrangfolge aktualisieren, wenn sie relevante Informationen erhalten. |
| Keywords: | coal phase-out, information provision, motivated reasoning, policy mix |
| JEL: | C93 D02 D83 D91 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:328240 |
| By: | Yangyang Li |
| Abstract: | The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment (OHIE) offers a unique opportunity to examine the causal relationship between Medicaid coverage and happiness among low-income adults, using an experimental design. This study leverages data from comprehensive surveys conducted at 0 and 12 months post-treatment. Previous studies based on OHIE have shown that individuals receiving Medicaid exhibited a significant improvement in mental health compared to those who did not receive coverage. The primary objective is to explore how Medicaid coverage impacts happiness, specifically analyzing in which direction variations in healthcare spending significantly improve mental health: higher spending or lower spending after Medicaid. Utilizing instrumental variable (IV) regression, I conducted six separate regressions across subgroups categorized by expenditure levels and happiness ratings, and the results reveal distinct patterns. Enrolling in OHP has significantly decreased the probability of experiencing unhappiness, regardless of whether individuals had high or low medical spending. Additionally, it decreased the probability of being pretty happy and having high medical expenses, while increasing the probability among those with lower expenses. Concerning the probability of being very happy, the OHP only had a positive effect on being very happy and spending less, and its effect on those with high expenses was insignificant. These findings align with the benefit of Medicaid: alleviating financial burden, contributing to the well-being of distinct subgroups. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14909 |
| By: | Martyna Kobus; Rados{\l}aw Kurek; Thomas Parker |
| Abstract: | Strong empirical evidence from laboratory experiments, and more recently from population surveys, shows that individuals, when evaluating their situations, pay attention to whether they experience gains or losses, with losses weighing more heavily than gains. The electorate's loss aversion, in turn, influences politicians' choices. We propose a new framework for welfare analysis of policy outcomes that, in addition to the traditional focus on post-policy incomes, also accounts for individuals' gains and losses resulting from policies. We develop several bivariate stochastic dominance criteria for ranking policy outcomes that are sensitive to features of the joint distribution of individuals' income changes and absolute incomes. The main social objective assumes that individuals are loss averse with respect to income gains and losses, inequality averse with respect to absolute incomes, and hold varying preferences regarding the association between incomes and income changes. We translate these and other preferences into functional inequalities that can be tested using sample data. The concepts and methods are illustrated using data from an income support experiment conducted in Connecticut. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.09590 |
| By: | Felix Aidala; Gizem Koşar; Daniel Mangrum; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Consumer demand for “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) has surged, but the specific attributes consumers value remain unclear. We conduct a novel probabilistic stated choice experiment varying BNPL attributes across hypothetical scenarios to estimate consumers’ underlying preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for each feature. Consumers have a negative WTP for the standard bundle, on average, but younger and lower income consumers have stronger demand. Simulating consumer demand with estimated preference parameters reveals that most shifts away from the standard BNPL bundle reduce demand and create a more negatively selected pool of BNPL users, especially when interest is charged. |
| Keywords: | Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL); payment services; financial inclusion; probabilistic stated choices; survey experiment |
| JEL: | G51 G41 C93 R22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:101928 |
| By: | Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kieren, Pascal; Trautmann, Stefan T. |
| Abstract: | Economists widely rely on measures of inflation expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This method, where respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges, has been subjected to criticism particularly in the recent times of high and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations, which is rooted in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two large surveys and one laboratory experiment, we demonstrate that it leads to well-defined expectations that fulfil both subjective and objective quality criteria. The method is neither perceived as more difficult nor does it take more time to complete compared to the current standard. In contrast to density forecasts, the method is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. The method is portable and can be applied to elicit different macroeconomic expectations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, measurement, macroeconomic beliefs, surveys |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E37 E71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:328248 |