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on Experimental Economics |
By: | Marie Boltz; Monserrat Bustelo; Ana María Díaz; Agustina Suaya |
Abstract: | We study whether pluralistic ignorance about societal and spousal support for maternal employment sustains gender gaps in labor outcomes. We first elicit secondorder beliefs from 1, 732 cohabiting couples with young children in Bogotá. Personal support for working mothers is almost universal, yet both men and women substantially underestimate others’ support, particularly that of men. We then implement a randomized controlled trial delivering personalized information on prevailing attitudes toward maternal employment. The intervention narrowed belief gaps —raising women’s estimates of peer support and men’s perceptions of their partners’ views— while leaving first-order attitudes unchanged. Treated men were 7–8 percentage points (16 percent) more likely than men in the control group to nominate their wives for a career-building course rather than take the course for themselves; women, whose baseline demand was already high, showed no further change. Treated women intensified job-search efforts, and treated men expressed stronger preferences for work-family balance. These results reflect short-run adjustments in beliefs and reported behaviors, measured within weeks of the intervention. |
Keywords: | Gender norms, Female Employment, Pluralistic ignorance, RCT. |
JEL: | R41 R42 D62 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-37 |
By: | Tommaso Bondi; Daniel Csaba; Evan Friedman; Salvatore Nunnari |
Abstract: | Several behavioral models assume that choice over multi-attribute goods is systematically affected by the ranges of attribute values. Two recurring principles in this literature are contrast, whereby attributes with larger ranges attract attention and are therefore overweighted, and normalization, whereby attributes with larger ranges are underweighted as fixed differences appear smaller against a larger range. These principles lead to divergent predictions, and yet, both contrast-based and normalization-based models have found strong empirical support, albeit in different contexts and with different experimental designs. The question remains: when does one effect emerge over the other? We experimentally test a unifying explanation: normalization dominates in simple choices, while contrast dominates in complex choices. We conduct an experiment with real-effort tasks in which we manipulate attribute ranges in both simple and complex choices. We find that, indeed, contrast dominates as the number of attributes increases. We also find that contrast emerges with cognitive load induced by time pressure. |
Keywords: | multi-attribute choice, range effects, focusing, relative thinking, salience, bottom-up attention, context dependence, complexity, experiment |
JEL: | C91 D91 D12 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12175 |
By: | Hans Bonesrønning; Jon Marius |
Abstract: | We use data from a Norwegian field experiment where young students were taught mathematics in small, homogenous groups to investigate how treatment effects varied across middle-achieving students dependent on their rank order and their tutors’ instructional practices. We find that individuals from the second and fourth quintiles in the pretest score distribution who were placed in groups with lower (higher) ranked students experienced substantially lower (higher) treatment effects than students who were placed in groups with students from the same quintile as themselves. These effects were somewhat modified by the tutors’ instructional practices. Students in the third quintile were unaffected by their within-group rank. |
Keywords: | ability grouping, small groups, ordinal rank effects, tutors’ instructional practices |
JEL: | I21 I24 H75 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12153 |
By: | Béla Elmshauser; Evan Friedman; Yoon Joo Jo |
Abstract: | Conveying private information to interested parties is central to almost every economic and social activity. In such interactions, the sender may lie by misreporting the truth, but may also deceive by inducing inaccurate beliefs about the payoff-relevant state. While a huge experimental literature documents aversion to lying, there is little evidence regarding aversion to deceiving others. Deception aversion is conceptually difficult to document because it depends on unobserved second-order beliefs: the sender’s belief over the receiver’s belief (over the payoff-relevant state). In this paper, we introduce a novel game and show theoretically how to identify deception aversion from choice data alone, with minimal assumptions on second-order beliefs. We run a laboratory experiment and find strong support for deception aversion that is robust to several natural variations of the game. Many subjects lie in order to avoid deception, and structural estimates imply that 30% of subjects are deception-averse. |
Keywords: | lying, deception, lying aversion, deception aversion, image concerns, strategic communication, psychological game theory |
JEL: | C44 C72 C92 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12154 |
By: | Fugger, Nicolas; Gillen, Philippe; Gretschko, Vitali; Kokott, Gian-Marco; Riehm, Tobias |
Abstract: | We investigate how buyer-supplier communication affects procurement prices, comparing auctions without direct communication to negotiations allowing it. In controlled experiments involving students and procurement professionals, we find communication increases prices, disadvantaging buyers. Negotiation analyses show lower initial offers, negotiation-focused dialogue, and emphasizing competition help reduce prices. Contrary to conventional wisdom, auctions without communication often yield better procurement outcomes, especially in competitive markets. Our results suggest managers should reconsider assumptions about experienced negotiators achieving superior deals and instead favor procurement auctions with limited communication to secure lower prices. |
Keywords: | Auctions, Negotiations, Procurement, Experiment |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327107 |
By: | Pfeil, Katharina; Kasper, Matthias; Necker, Sarah; Feld, Lars P. |
Abstract: | We study how individuals adjust their labor supply in response to tax reforms that alter income tax progressivity. In an online experiment with 522 participants, we compare responses to reforms that replace a progressive tax system with a flat tax and vice versa. We find asymmetric effects: labor supply increases when a progressive regime is replaced by a flat tax system, but does not decline when progressivity is introduced. This increase in labor provision occurs only when the reform lowers the marginal tax rate, not when it raises it. Our results suggest that labor supply responses to tax reforms are nuanced and path-dependent: reforms change behavior when they ease tax burdens for individuals who were previously discouraged from working more due to progressive thresholds. |
Keywords: | Tax System Design, Tax Reform, Notches, Labor Supply, Online Experiment |
JEL: | J20 J22 H24 H30 C91 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:327115 |
By: | Sulser, Pascal; Fischbacher, Urs; Wolff, Irenaeus |
JEL: | C93 D62 D83 H41 Z13 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325425 |
By: | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Fafchamps, Marcel; Goldstein, Markus; Leonard, Kenneth L.; Papineni, Sreelakshmi |
Abstract: | We conduct an original lab-in-the-field experiment on the decision–making process of married couples over the allocation of rival and non-rival household goods. The experiment measures individual preferences over allocations and traces the process of deferral, consultation, communication and accommodation by which couples implement these preferences. We find few differences in individual preferences over allocations of goods. However, wives and husbands have strong preferences over process: women prefer to defer decisions to their husbands even when deferral is costly and is not observed by the husband; men rarely defer under any condition. Our study follows a randomized controlled trial that ended a year earlier and gave large cash transfers over eighteen months to half of the women in the study. We estimate the effect of treatment on the demand for agency among women and find that the receipt of cash transfers does not change women’s bargaining process except in a secret condition when the decision to defer is shrouded from her husband. This suggests that the cash transfer to women increases their demand for agency but does not change the intra-household balance of power enough to allow them to express it publicly. |
Keywords: | bargaining power; cash transfers; decision making; intrahousehold relations; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa |
Date: | 2024–09–13 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152230 |
By: | Ceballos, Francisco; Chugh, Aditi; Kramer, Berber |
Abstract: | The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization. |
Keywords: | agricultural extension; artificial intelligence; farmers; inputs; India; Kenya; Asia; Southern Asia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169348 |
By: | Normann, Hans-Theo; Rulié, Nina; Stypa, Olaf; Werner, Tobias |
JEL: | C90 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325417 |
By: | Eßer, Jana |
JEL: | C90 D90 Q51 Q58 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325465 |
By: | Martínez Martínez, Ismael; Normann, Hans-Theo |
Abstract: | We analyze infinitely repeated multiplayer prisoner's dilemmas in continuous-time experiments. As the number of players changes, our design keeps the payoffs of the all-defection, all-cooperation, and unilateral- defection and -cooperation outcomes constant, thus controlling for the minimum discount factor required for cooperation to be an equilibrium. For all group sizes, we study three different variants of the prisoner's dilemma. In further treatments, we allow actions to be chosen from a continuous set. We find that cooperation rates decrease with the number of players, a result that we can attribute to the increased strategic uncertainty in larger groups. The different payoff matrices also affect cooperation. For the payoff matrices with lower levels of cooperation, the group-size effect is weaker. The availability of a continuous action set strongly reduces cooperation rates. |
Keywords: | cooperation, dilemma, experiment |
JEL: | C72 C73 C92 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:327128 |
By: | Kevin He (University of Pennsylvania); Ran Shorrer (Pennsylvania State University); Mengjia Xia (University of Pennsylvania) |
Abstract: | We conduct an incentivized laboratory experiment to study people’s perception of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) alignment in the context of economic decisionmaking. Using a panel of economic problems spanning the domains of risk, time preference, social preference, and strategic interactions, we ask human subjects to make choices for themselves and to predict the choices made by GenAI on behalf of a human user. We find that people overestimate the degree of alignment between GenAI’s choices and human choices. In every problem, human subjects’ average prediction about GenAI’s choice is substantially closer to the average human-subject choice than it is to the GenAI choice. At the individual level, different subjects’ predictions about GenAI’s choice in a given problem are highly correlated with their own choices in the same problem. We explore the implications of people overestimating GenAI alignment in a simple theoretical model. |
Date: | 2025–04–06 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:25-019 |
By: | Kosec, Katrina; Kyle, Jordan; Narayanan, Sudha; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Ray, Soumyajit |
Abstract: | We explore the impacts of exposing women to female role models and providing skills training on outcomes related to women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets under India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—the largest public works program in the world, which solicits citizen input on which assets to build and where. While the role model treatment exposes women to a video with stories of female role models from neighboring districts who successfully demanded assets, the skills training shows women how to identify individual and group needs for assets, frame their demands, and articulate them to public functionaries. In a randomized controlled trial spanning 94 villages and involving approximately 2, 600 women, we find that exposure to role models alone has limited impacts, but when combined with skills training, there are strong positive impacts on women’s aspirations and engagement in demanding assets. This reveals that even a light-touch training can significantly benefit women’s voice and agency in village decision-making. |
Keywords: | civil society; decision making; gender; training; women's empowerment; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169023 |
By: | Trachtman, Carly; Kramer, Berber; do Nascimento Miguel, Jérémy |
Abstract: | Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research. |
Keywords: | agricultural research for development; plant breeding; experimental design; market research |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169025 |
By: | Fietz, Katharina; Lakemann, Tabea; Beber, Bernd; Priebe, Jan; Lay, Jann |
JEL: | O12 O17 J46 J81 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325459 |
By: | Keenan, Michael; Koo, Jawoo; Mwangi, Christine Wamuyu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Breisinger, Clemens; Kim, MinAh |
Abstract: | Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. |
Keywords: | artificial intelligence; communication; research; Southern Asia |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169363 |
By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick); Gupta, Tanu; Huang, Allen (Weiyi); Londoño, Valentina; Saavedra, Santiago; Toma, Mattie (University of Warwick) |
Abstract: | There is limited evidence on the non-health impacts of air pollution, including productivity in the workplace and behavior. We examine the effect of air pollution on participation, collaboration, and feedback provision in a workplace setting. Our experiment randomly assigns air purifiers to rooms at three large academic conferences to investigate the causal impact of air pollution on participants’ engagement behavior. We construct a participant engagement index based on 12 presentation-level behavioral outcomes directly measured by conference observers through an online form and weigh each behavioral outcome using weights elicited from an expert survey. Conference rooms treated with air purifiers exhibit 48% less PM2.5 concentration compared to control rooms. However, we do not find a statistically significant change in engagement. Communication in the workplace might not be a large driver of the empirical relationship between air quality and productivity, albeit more research is needed across workplaces and measures of communication. |
Keywords: | Indoor air quality ; Engagement ; Workplace ; Field Experiment JEL Codes: Q53 ; J24 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1579 |
By: | Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abay, Kibrom A. |
Abstract: | In rural settings, community leaders play important roles in mobilizing resources and delivering public goods and services. However, little is known about their attributes and incentives in delivering these public goods and services. Exploiting survey, lab-in-the-field experiment, and geo-referenced data, we study the role of leaders, especially women’s leadership, and their exposure to conflict in explaining differences in cooperation among com-munity leaders in Ethiopia. We measure cooperation through a public-good experiment and examine the implications of community leaders’ characteristics. We then merge these lab-in-the field experimental data with geo-referenced data on conflict exposure to examine the implication of different types of conflict on community leaders’ cooperation behavior. We find that female leaders contribute more to public goods than their male counterparts. For example, compared to those assuming the highest official administrative responsibility in the village, women leaders contribute about 11 percent more to the public good. We also document nuanced findings that reconcile existing mixed evidence on the implication of exposure to conflict on cooperation: while conflict events that affect the whole community, such as political violence (including battles) are associated with higher cooperation, other types of conflict (e.g., demonstrations and riots) are associated with lower levels of cooperation. Finally, we identify additional predictors of cooperation among community leaders, including beliefs about other leaders’ cooperative behavior. These findings shed light on potential avenues for facilitating and fostering cooperation among community leaders. |
Keywords: | conflicts; cooperation; leaders; public goods; women; women's empowerment; war; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
Date: | 2024–09–17 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:152266 |
By: | Bos, Olivier; Fugger, Nicolas; Onderstal, Sander |
Abstract: | We investigate profit-share auctions in a procurement context, comparing them with traditional cash auctions to identify which mechanism yields lower expenses for buyers. We also explore whether specifying a high project value in profit-share auction contracts influences supplier bidding behavior. Using theoretical analysis and experimental methods, we observe that profit-share auctions lead to lower buyer expenses compared to traditional cash auctions. Furthermore, we find that the buyer benefits from specifying a high project value in the contract, as this commitment induces more aggressive bidding from the suppliers. While profit-share auctions result in significantly lower buyer expenses than cash auctions, the observed differences are smaller than predicted. This discrepancy is due to (i) more pronounced underbidding in cash auctions and (ii) lower efficiency in profit-share auctions caused by noisy bidding. Our findings suggest that managers can reduce procurement costs by adopting profit-share auctions and strategically committing to a high project value in contracts. However, they should be aware that real-world savings may be smaller than theoretically predicted due to supplier bidding behavior. |
Keywords: | procurement, profit-share auctions, experiment |
JEL: | D44 C92 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327106 |
By: | Blaufus, Kay; Piehl, Kevin; Schröder, Marina |
JEL: | C90 J33 O31 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325392 |
By: | Ndegwa, Michael K.; Shee, Apurba; Ward, Patrick S.; Liu, Yanyan; Turvey, Calum G.; You, Liangzhi |
Abstract: | We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1, 053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit. |
Keywords: | credit; productivity; investment; smallholders; welfare; risk; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
Date: | 2024–12–18 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:163758 |
By: | Ekatarina Juergens (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sebastian Gechert (Chemnitz University of Technologie) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates whether political partisanship and political narratives affect voters’ opinions about public finances. In a novel survey experiment, we test the causal effect of pro-consolidation and pro-public investment narratives used in German general election campaigns on participants’ opinions on public debt and how to deal with budget deficits. We do not find a relevant average treatment effect of these narratives. However, they partly interact with political party preferences, which are a dominant covariate for opinions on public finances. We interpret our findings as a conjunction of narrative economics theory and the partisan bias literature, by which only emotionally charged narratives pass the partisan filter. |
Keywords: | public debt, survey experiment, partisan bias |
JEL: | D8 H5 H6 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:227-2025 |
By: | Rabie, Dina; El-Bialy, Nora |
Abstract: | The Islamic inheritance law puts women at a distributive disadvantage leading to gender inequality in wealth accumulation. Religiosity and patriarchy are often blamed for the persistence of gender inequality in Muslim-majority countries. Employing an online vignette experiment, we examine whether religious and pro-male preferences reinforce gender inequality in inheritance in Egypt. We find that religious individuals prefer to abide by the inheritance law and its distributive inequality. We also find that individuals with pro-male cultural beliefs prefer to avoid the inheritance law only selectively to protect the male distributive advantage. Put together, we find that both religiosity and pro-male cultural beliefs are impediments to achieving gender equality in inheritance in Egypt. |
Keywords: | religiosity; pro-male culture; Islamic inheritance; vignette experiment |
JEL: | C99 D19 |
Date: | 2025–09–12 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129627 |
By: | Müge Süer (IWH Halle); Michel Tolksdorf (TU Berlin); Vincent Meisner (HU Berlin); Sokol Tominaj (TU Berlin) |
Abstract: | Contrary to classical theory, we provide experimental evidence that preference reports in a strategy-proof school-choice mechanism systematically depend on beliefs. We employ a "hard-easy gap" to exogenously vary students' beliefs about their priority rank. As predicted, underconfidence induces more manipulation and thus more justified envy than overconfidence. The effect of priority information on justified envy crucially depends on the initial beliefs and the real priority ranks: while top students always gain, non-top students lose from this information. In total, correcting overconfidence/underconfidence increases/decreases justified envy. Finally, we confirm that additionally providing information on school availability through a dynamic implementation of the mechanism reduces justified envy compared to priority information alone. |
Keywords: | market design; school choice; overconfidence; strategy-proofness; information; |
JEL: | C92 D47 |
Date: | 2025–09–25 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:546 |
By: | Pascaline Dupas (Princeton University); Seema Jayachandran (Princeton University); Adriana Lleras-Muney (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California); Pauline Rossi (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
Abstract: | We conducted a randomized trial among 14, 545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to modern contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address inefficiencies that might depress demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate and social norms. Free contraception did not significantly influence fertility even in combination with these interventions. |
Keywords: | Family planning, Demographic transition, Social norms, Randomized trial |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05272203 |
By: | Takuya Iinuma (Yokohama City University and Analyst, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management Co., Ltd. (E-mail: m245161a@yokohama-cu.ac.jp)); Yoshiyuki Nakazono (Professor, Yokohama City University and Visiting Professor, Tohoku University (E-mail: nakazono@yokohama-cu.ac.jp)); Kento Tango (Visiting Lecturer, Yokohama City University (E-mail: m225162a@yokohama-cu.ac.jp)) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates how social identity influences the assimilation of monetary policy information. We conduct a randomized control trial in Japan to test whether consumers respond more strongly to inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) when the message is delivered by a narrator who shares their social identity. Respondents are randomly assigned to hear the BOJ's forecast in either standard Japanese or the Osaka dialect, both narrated by a female speaker. We find that individuals are significantly more likely to revise their inflation expectations toward the BOJ's forecast when the narrator shares the respondent's gender, dialect, or political alignment. Women are more responsive to forecasts delivered by a female narrator; Osaka residents react more strongly to messages in the Osaka dialect; and government supporters exhibit greater belief updating in response to BOJ forecasts. These findings suggest that central banks can enhance the effectiveness of their communication by tailoring messages to align with the social identities of target audiences. |
Keywords: | homophily, imperfect information, inattention, monetary policy, policy communication, political preferences, social identity |
JEL: | D84 E31 E52 E58 E71 |
Date: | 2025–07 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-05 |
By: | Arnemann, Laura; Doerrenberg, Philipp; Eble, Fabian; Rostam-Afschar, Davud; Voget, Johannes; Buhlmann, Florian; Karlsson, Christopher |
Abstract: | Motivated by the increasing frequency with which business leaders publicly express their views on policy issues and by recent findings on the role of narratives in shaping preferences and behaviors, we investigate ow narratives affect the tax preferences of firm decision-makers. Specifically, using a large-scale survey experiment (N=7, 848), we examine how exposure to narratives of redistribution and fiscal consolidation affects firm decision-makers' attitudes toward taxes and fiscal stimulus. We find that framing taxes as payments of due debts increases the preference to pay taxes, whereas framing taxes as funds required to cover undue losses is largely ineffective, except for a notable tendency to favor raising the capital gains tax. We also observe a greater preference to pay taxes when decision-makers agree with the stimulus. Our findings on narratives and the channels affecting tax preferences have implications for fiscal policy communication |
Keywords: | Tax Preferences, Fiscal Policy, Firm Decision-Makers, Survey Experiments |
JEL: | H21 H24 H25 H12 H32 H60 D6 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327101 |
By: | Benito Arruñada; Marco Fabbri; Daniele Nosenzo; Giorgio Zanarone |
Abstract: | We provide causal evidence on how a community’s formal institutions and social structure jointly affect the value of its land to outside investors. Using field research and a lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Benin, we show that potential urban investors perceive a higher risk of expropriatory collusion among villagers—and thus invest less—when villages lack formal land records and exhibit strong social tightness. We also find that, although formalizing land rights increases the confidence of outsiders, it does not eliminate their concerns about collusion: outsiders remain wary of investing in villages with a tight social structure even with formal property rights, indicating that local collusion continues to pose a barrier to developing impersonal property markets. Our findings therefore suggest that in addition to facilitating intra-community investment and trade (e.g., by formalizing land ownership), well-designed property institutions should also guarantee the impartial treatment of outsiders. |
Date: | 2025–10 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-11 |
By: | Roland Bénabou; Luca Henkel |
Abstract: | We review the economic literature on self-image, which conceptualizes identity as a set of beliefs about one’s core traits, values, goals, and social ties. Self-image concerns lead individuals to process information and make choices in non-standard ways that help affirm and protect certain valued identities. We first present the main cognitive mechanisms involved within a simple unifying framework. We then survey the extensive laboratory, online, and field experimental literature on the nature and behavioral implications of self-image concerns. We discuss in particular how they give rise to information and decision avoidance, motivated memory and beliefs, excuse-driven behavior, preferences for truth-telling, hypothetical bias, moral cleansing and moral licensing, collective identities, political preferences, and other forms of self-signaling or self-deception. We subsequently discuss common empirical strategies used to identify self-image concerns, as well as the threats to their validity and how to alleviate them. We conclude by outlining open questions and directions for future research on the belief-based approach to identity. |
JEL: | D64 D82 D91 Z13 |
Date: | 2025–09 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34297 |
By: | Ahmed, Akhter; Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Hoddinott, John F.; Roy, Shalini |
Abstract: | Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity. |
Keywords: | COVID-19; resilience; shock; social protection; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
Date: | 2024–10–01 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:155053 |
By: | Yusuke Aoki (Indeed. (E-mail: yaoki@indeed.com)); Joon Suk Park (Bank of Korea. (E-mail: parkjs@bok.or.kr)); Yuya Takada (Re Data Science Co., Ltd. and Specially Appointed Researcher, Indeed Recruit Partners Co., Ltd. (E-mail: yuyatakada@redata.co.jp)); Koji Takahashi (Bank of Japan. (E-mail: kouji.takahashi-2@boj.or.jp)) |
Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between individuals' expectations of job replacement by generative AI (GenAI) and their macroeconomic outlooks and behaviors. Using online surveys combined with randomized experiments conducted in the U.S. and Japan, we derive the following findings about the effects of expecting greater job replacement due to GenAI. First, in both the U.S. and Japan, respondents revise their beliefs after receiving information about GenAI's job replacement ratios. Second, in Japan, such an expectation leads to an increase in inflation expectations driven by a rise in investment. Third, it increases respondents' willingness to use GenAI in workplaces in Japan. Fourth, in the U.S., expectations of greater job replacement amplify concerns about weaker short-term labor demand and reduced skill requirements, particularly among more educated respondents. In addition, these respondents anticipate lower investment, while less educated respondents expect higher investment. |
Keywords: | Generative Artificial intelligence, labor market, inflation, productivity. |
JEL: | E24 E31 O30 |
Date: | 2025–05 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-04 |
By: | Leight, Jessica; Bahiru, Kibret Mamo; Buehren, Niklas; Getahun, Tigabu; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Mulford, Michael; Tambet, Heleene |
Abstract: | Sustainable land management (SLM) technologies including composting and agro-forestry are widely promoted as strategies to counter land degradation and enhance resilience against adverse weather shocks. Given that women are disproportionately vulnerable to such shocks, promoting their uptake of these technologies may be particularly important. We conducted a randomized trial in rural Ethiopia analyzing a bundled intervention providing training and inputs designed to encourage uptake of three interrelated SLM technologies: fruit tree planting, composting, and home gardening. The trial included 1900 extremely poor households in 95 subdistricts, randomly assigned to treatment arms in which women only or couples were included in the intervention. The findings one year post-baseline suggest a positive and large effect on take-up of all three technologies: the probability of reporting any trees increased by eight percentage points, and the probability of reporting a garden and/or composting increased by 20 to 30 percentage points, symmetrically across treatment arms. There are also significant reported increases in household vegetable production and consumption as well as in women’s dietary diversity. There is, however, some evidence that tree survival rates and tree health are weakly lower in intervention households compared to control households who spontaneously planted trees. Some positive effects on equitable intrahousehold decision-making and task-sharing are observed, especially in the couples’ training arm, but in general there is no robust evidence that either intervention significantly shifted intrahousehold gender dynamics. |
Keywords: | climate change; land management; gender; social protection; sustainable land management; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168513 |
By: | Kariuki, Sarah W.; Mohamed, Asha B.; Mutuku, Urbanus; Mutegi, Charity; Bandyopadhyay, Ranajit; Hoffmann, Vivian |
Abstract: | Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact. |
Keywords: | food safety; aflatoxins; impact assessment; agricultural technology; smallholders; training; maize; crops; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
Date: | 2024–12–20 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:168192 |
By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Tafere, Kibrom; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
Abstract: | Targeting is an important but challenging process in the design and delivery of social and humanitarian assistance programs. Community-based targeting (CBT) approaches are often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. However, how different variants of CBT approaches fare under various constraints and environments remains unclear. For example, it is not obvious whether agents involved in CBT maximize the number of beneficiaries or the intensity of transfers when given different levels of discretion or they face budget constraints. We implemented a clustered randomized control trial among community leaders in 180 villages in Ethiopia to evaluate how community leaders target and allocate resources when they face budget constraints and are in the presence (absence) of discretion. We find that under resource constraints, community leaders prefer to maximize the number of beneficiaries even at the expense of thinly spreading budgets (reducing average transfers to beneficiaries). Community leaders are keen to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors, suggesting that community leaders may be sensitive to potential communal repercussions and hence prefer to accommodate beneficiaries who would otherwise be excluded based on survey-based measures and indicators of poverty. Consistent with this, we find that offering community leaders some level of discretion helps them reduce exclusion errors and include those most deprived or those affected by armed conflicts. Finally, we find that community leaders are more vulnerable to favoritism when real stakes (rather than hypothetical) are involved, budgets are relatively larger, and they lack discretion. We offer nuanced evidence about the implications of implementing CBT designs in the absence of incentives for community leaders to reveal how they use local information. |
Keywords: | community development; fragility; social protection; targeting; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
Date: | 2024–10–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:158351 |
By: | Burger, Maximilian Nicolaus; Nilgen, Marco; Vollan, Björn |
Abstract: | Citizens’ Juries (CJs) are increasingly implemented as a means to engage citizens in deliberation on complex policy challenges, yet their effectiveness can be undermined by cognitive biases and limited value-driven reasoning. This study evaluates the impact of bias alleviation and value activation exercises on deliberative quality and civic engagement in four CJs conducted in Bogotá, Colombia. Two juries incorporated these exercises as treatment interventions, and two served as controls with extended deliberation time. Results reveal that deliberation itself modestly reduced confirmation bias compared to non-participants, while the structured interventions enhanced participants’ awareness of biases and value-based reasoning. However, the interventions did not significantly reduce the occurrence of biases and led to a perceived trade-off with deliberation time. Participation in CJs also showed improved trust in science and political self-efficacy, demonstrating their potential to foster civic engagement. These findings highlight the nuanced benefits and limitations of integrating debiasing interventions into mini-publics to enhance deliberative quality and equity in policymaking. |
Keywords: | democracy; environmental economics; food systems; participatory research; public participation; sustainability; Colombia; Americas; South America |
Date: | 2024–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:169372 |
By: | Benndorf, Volker; Kübler, Dorothea; Normann, Hans-Theo |
Abstract: | Information unraveling is an elegant theoretical argument suggesting that private information is voluntarily and fully revealed in many circumstances. However, the experimental literature has documented many cases of incomplete unraveling and has suggested limited depth of reasoning on the part of senders as a behavioral explanation. To test this explanation, we modify the design of existing unraveling games along two dimensions. In contrast to the baseline setting with simultaneous moves, we introduce a variant where decision-making is essentially sequential. Second, we vary the cost of disclosure, resulting in a 2×2 treatment design. Both sequential decision-making and low disclosure costs are suitable for reducing the demands on subjects' level-k reasoning. The data confirm that sequential decision-making and low disclosure costs lead to more disclosure, and there is virtually full disclosure in the treatment that combines both. A calibrated level-k model makes quantitative predictions, including precise treatment level and player-specific revelation rates, and these predictions organize the data well. The timing of decisions provides further insights into the treatment-specific unraveling process. |
Keywords: | information revelation, level-k reasoning, sequential decisions, calibration |
JEL: | C72 C90 C91 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:327129 |
By: | Schouwer, Thimo De; Gsottbauer, Elisabeth; Kesternich, Iris; Schumacher, Heiner |
Abstract: | Work meaning can be an important driver of labor supply. Since, by definition, work meaning is associated with benefits for others, it also has an important fairness dimension. In a theoretical model, we show that workers’ willingness to pay for work meaning can be positive or negative, depending on the relative strength of fairness concerns and meaning preferences. To examine the importance of these behavioral motives for labor supply, we conduct a survey experiment with representative samples from The Netherlands and Germany in which we vary within-subject the benefits that a job creates for others. We find that only a minority of workers are actually willing to sacrifice wage for work meaning. The average willingness to pay for work meaning is positive, but substantially lower than the willingness to pay for job flexibility. There is a strong negative relationship between fairness concerns and willingness to pay for work meaning. Thus, individuals who prioritize fairness are less likely to accept lower wages for meaningful work. |
Keywords: | work meaning; labor supply; fairness preferences |
JEL: | C90 M52 |
Date: | 2025–12–31 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129675 |
By: | Seung Jung Lee; Anne Lundgaard Hansen |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of generative AI on financial stability. We conduct laboratory-style experiments using large language models to replicate classic studies on herd behavior in investment decisions. Our results show that AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, relying predominantly on private information over market trends. Increased reliance on AI-powered investment advice could therefore potentially lead to fewer asset price bubbles arising from animal spirits that trade by following the herd. However, exploring variations in the experimental settings reveals that AI agents can be induced to herd optimally when explicitly guided to make profit-maximizing decisions. While optimal herding improves market discipline, this behavior still carries potential implications for financial stability. In other experimental variations, we show that AI agents are not purely algorithmic, but have inherited some elements of human conditioning and bias. |
Keywords: | Herd behavior; Large language models; AI-powered traders; Financial markets; Financial stability |
JEL: | C90 D82 G11 G14 G40 |
Date: | 2025–09–26 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-90 |
By: | Bruckmeier, Kerstin; Dolls, Mathias; Necker, Sarah; Peichl, Andreas; Windsteiger, Lisa |
JEL: | J22 J46 J48 H26 H31 H53 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325413 |
By: | Jan Behringer (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Lukas Endres (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Maike Korsinnek (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
Abstract: | We examine how perceptions about the costs of carbon pricing affect policy acceptance. Using a representative sample of the German population, we conduct experiments that provide randomly selected respondents with personalized information about their costs at the current carbon price or a higher future price. Participants tend to overestimate their current costs and increase their carbon price acceptance when receiving cost information. In contrast, respondents underestimate future costs and reduce their support once they learn about actual costs. This underscores the importance of personalized information in fostering current support for carbon pricing, while cautioning against potential backlash as prices rise. |
Keywords: | Carbon pricing, policy acceptance, perceptions, experiment |
JEL: | D12 D83 H23 Q58 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:226-2025 |
By: | Deepak Saraswat; Shwetlena Sabarwal; Lindsey Lacey; Natasha Jha; Nishith Prakash; Rachel Cohen |
Abstract: | Nearly 200 million children under five in low- and middle-income countries face developmental deficits, even as access to early childhood services expands. We present evidence from a large-scale randomized controlled trial (N=3, 131 children in 201 schools) in Nepal’s government system testing three models of combining classroom quality with parental engagement. All teachers completed a 15-day training on pedagogy, national standards, and caregiver engagement, after which schools were randomly assigned to models varying whether caregiver sessions were led by teachers alone, by teachers supported with in-class helpers, or by external facilitators. The intervention increased children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations and improved caregiver engagement by similar magnitudes. Effects were most consistent when teachers received support that sustained classroom quality while engaging families, underscoring the critical role of workload management. Impacts were concentrated among disadvantaged households—those with lower baseline engagement, higher stress, and less education—highlighting the potential to reduce early childhood inequalities. Mechanism analysis shows the program shifted home and school inputs from substitutes to complements, creating mutually reinforcing pathways for child development. These findings demonstrate that modest, system-embedded reforms can generate scalable improvements in early childhood human capital formation. |
Keywords: | early childhood development, cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Nepal |
JEL: | J13 J24 I21 I24 O15 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12160 |
By: | Megan N Cesarini-Williams (Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]); Julie Lasselin (Stockholm University, Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]); Mats Lekander (Stockholm University, Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]); John Axelsson (Stockholm University, Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]); Mats J Olsson (Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]); Arnaud Tognetti (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
Abstract: | A behavioral defense against disease involves detecting sickness cues in others and responding adaptively, such as by avoiding social interactions. While studies have shown that humans can discriminate sickness cues above chance in faces after sickness induction, whether this discrimination affects approach-avoidance behaviors remains uncertain. Here, we investigated how facial sickness cues influence judgments of trustworthiness, serving as a proxy measure for social avoidance. In a prior study, facial photographs were taken of 21 individuals when sick (two hours after an endotoxin injection causing a transient systemic inflammation) and healthy (following placebo injection). In the current study, participants in two separate experiments viewed these paired facial photographs and were asked, in a two-alternative forced-choice paradigm, to identify which face appeared sick (n = 94) or more trustworthy (n = 82). Participants discriminated sick faces significantly above chance (73.1 %), with females (76.0 %) performing significantly better than males (69.3 %). Additionally, sick faces were perceived as significantly less trustworthy, being selected in only 34.9 % of trials. Notably, the higher the sickness discrimination accuracy for a particular face, the less likely that face was to be judged as trustworthy. Moreover, females (30.5 %) were significantly less likely than males (39.5 %) to judge sick faces as the more trustworthy looking. Individual differences in participants' disease vulnerability, disgust sensitivity, and frequency of sickness, as well as facial stimulus participants' inflammatory response intensity measured via interleukin-6 blood concentrations, body temperature, and sickness symptoms, did not predict sickness discrimination accuracy or trustworthiness judgments. Together, these findings suggest that visual sickness cues negatively affect trustworthiness judgments, potentially reflecting social avoidant behaviors towards individuals who appear sick. While judgments of facial trustworthiness may be considered a social inference about whether an individual is safe to approach, future research should also include manifest measures of approach-avoidance in response to sickness cues. |
Keywords: | Sex differences, Acute inflammation, Pro-inflammatory markers, Lipopolysaccharide, Approach-avoidance behaviors, Behavioral immune system, Sickness detection, Disease avoidance, Trustworthiness, Sickness cues |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05271984 |
By: | Brox, Enzo; Krieger, Tommy |
Abstract: | We study how far-right mass rallies affect people's views about a city and thus location choices of nationals. To this end, we first exploit that the city of Dresden (Germany) unexpectedly experienced such rallies at the turn of the year 2014/15. Results from dyadic difference-in-differences and Synthetic Control analyses suggest that the number of (young) German adults who moved from another region to Dresden declined by around 10% due to the far-right mass protests. We complement our first analysis with a conjoint experiment where participants decide between two hypothetical cities. This experiment confirms that far-right rallies have a dissuasive effect and shows that left-wing people react stronger than right-wing people. It also reveals that far-right protests cause security concerns and concerns about finding like-minded people. The latter reaction is only observed for people that do not support the far right. |
Keywords: | far-right movements, location decisions, internal migration, political protest, populism, regional competition for talent, reputation of cities, university students |
JEL: | D72 I23 O15 P00 R23 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327113 |
By: | Magin, Jana; Neyer, Ulrike; Stevens, Alexandra |
JEL: | E41 E42 C92 |
Date: | 2025 |
URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325448 |