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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Dickinson, David L. (Appalachian State University); Villeval, Marie Claire (CNRS) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how group identity affects belief updating about moral norms. Using a Belief Updating task, we found that individuals follow a cautious version of Bayesian updating. Group identity itself does not directly affect belief updating. However, when given an information signal about the truthfulness of a normative statement that is dissonant with one’s perceived norm, individuals differ in their resistance to updating beliefs. This difference depends on whether the statement reflects moral norm judgments from people with the same or different political affiliation, and whether the signal supports or opposes honesty. This highlights the importance of understanding how one updates beliefs regarding moral norms, and how the group identity of those making normative judgments can be an important consideration. |
| Keywords: | online experiment, group identity, belief updating, social norms, cheating |
| JEL: | C91 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17892 |
| By: | Girum Abebe; Stefano Caria; Pascaline Dupas; Marcel Fafchamps; Tigabu Getahun |
| Abstract: | We experimentally test two seminal hypotheses on the impact of competition on firms' management upgrading. In a first experiment, we protect firms from labor market competition by reducing the risk that a freshly trained manager would be poached by a rival firm. We find that this protection does not increase firms’ investment in management training. In a second suite of experiments, we boost perceived product market competition by informing firms either that rival firms have received management training or that foreign firms are gaining easier access to the domestic market. Again, we find no evidence that this increases firms’ average willingness to invest in management training. To explain why firms do not feel threatened by competition, we present evidence suggesting that, in contrast to commonly held assumptions, firm managers in our setting hold a mental model of competition that posits positive—instead of negative—spillovers, arising primarily from differentiation. |
| JEL: | D22 L21 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33886 |
| By: | Mingshi Chen; Tracy Xiao Liu; You Shan; Shu Wang; Songfa Zhong; Yanju Zhou |
| Abstract: | Choice consistency with utility maximization is a fundamental assumption in economic analysis and is extensively measured across various contexts. Here we investigate the generalizability of consistency measures derived from purchasing decisions using supermarket scanner data and budgetary decisions from lab-in-the-field experiments. We observe a lack of correlation between consistency scores from supermarket purchasing decisions and those from risky decisions in the experiment. However, we observe moderate correlations among experimental tasks and low to moderate correlations across purchasing categories and time periods within the supermarket. These results suggest that choice consistency may be characterized as a multidimensional skill set. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.05275 |
| By: | Maximilian Andres (University of Bremen); Lisa Bruttel (University of Potsdam, CEPA) |
| Abstract: | While an influential body of economic literature shows that allowing for communication between firms increases collusion in oligopolies, so far we have only anecdotal evidence on the precise communication content that helps firms to coordinate their behavior. In this paper, we conduct a primary-data meta-study on oligopoly experiments and use a machine learning approach to identify systematic patterns in the communication content across studies. Starting with the communication topics mentioned most often in the literature (agreements, joint benefit, threat of punishment, promise/trust), we use a semi-supervised approach to detect all relevant topics. In a second step, we study the effect of these topics on the rate of collusion among the firms. We find that agreements on specific behavior are decisive for the strong positive effect of communication on collusion, while other communication topics have no effect. |
| Keywords: | collusion, communication, machine learning, meta-study, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D43 L41 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:88 |
| By: | Eric Edmonds; Priya Mukherjee; Nikhilesh Prakash; Nishith Prakash; Shwetlena Sabarwal |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a therapy intervention on Nepali adolescents at risk of dropping out of school. Our randomized controlled trial is the largest of its kind (N = 1, 707) and is novel in that participation does not require a preexisting diagnosis. Participation was high: 89 percent of adolescents offered therapy attended, with younger participants showing higher compliance. Therapy significantly reduced psychological distress, improved emotional regulation, and enhanced perspectives on life. These psychological benefits did not translate into better school attendance or cognitive outcomes. Our results indicate that mental health interventions alone may not be sufficient to improve educational performance in low-resource environments. |
| Keywords: | teen mental health, education, therapy, Nepal |
| JEL: | H25 F23 M48 H26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11888 |
| By: | Barbosa, Daniel AC (University of Oxford); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick); Soto-Vieira, Caterina (London School of Economics); Souza, Pedro CL (Queen Mary University) |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence that using body-worn cameras (BWCs) for police monitoring improves police-citizen interactions. Dispatches with BWCs show a 61.2% decrease in police use of force and a 47.0% reduction in negative interactions, including handcuff use and arrests. The use of BWCs also improves the quality of officers’ record from the dispatches. The rate of incomplete reports dropped by 5.9%, which is accompanied by a 69% increase in the notification of domestic violence. We explore various mechanisms that explain why BWCs work and show that the results are consistent with the police changing their behavior in the presence of cameras. Our results stand in contrast with previous experimental literature which used coarser designs and indicated muted or null body-worn camera effects on use of force. Replicating those designs, our data also finds attenuated effects. Overall, our results show that the use of BWCs de-escalates conflicts. |
| Keywords: | police ; use of force ; technology ; field experiment JEL Codes: C93 ; D73 ; D74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1560 |
| By: | Georg Kirchsteiger; Tom Lenaerts; Remi Suchon |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence shows that in a repeated dilemma setting cooperation is more likely to become the norm in small matching groups than in large ones. This result holds even if cooperation is an equilibrium outcome for all investigated group sizes. But what happens if small matching groups are merged to become large ones? Our paper is based on the idea that due to norm spillovers, a large group created by a merger of small groups is more likely to cooperate than a large group of similar size that is created directly. We tested this idea experimentally in the context of an infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma game. We compared the cooperation behavior of groups that result from mergers of smaller groups with the cooperation behavior of groups with constant group size. We found that cooperation levels were significantly higher in large groups that resulted from gradual growth than in large groups of the same size that were directly created. Looking at the individual behavior, we see that more subjects develop a norm of unconditional cooperation when the group size increases than when it is already large from the beginning. Hence, our results confirm the idea that cooperation is much more likely to be achieved when groups grow from small to large than when large groups are formed directly. |
| Keywords: | Prisoner’s dilemma, Cooperation in repeated games, Group growth, Norm spillover |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/391301 |
| By: | Edmonds, Eric V. (Dartmouth College); Mukherjee, Priya (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Prakash, Nikhilesh (Stockholm School of Economics); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Sabarwal, Shwetlena (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a therapy intervention on Nepali adolescents at risk of dropping out of school. Our randomized controlled trial is the largest of its kind (N = 1, 707) and is novel in that participation does not require a preexisting diagnosis. Participation was high: 89 percent of adolescents offered therapy attended, with younger participants showing higher compliance. Therapy significantly reduced psychological distress, improved emotional regulation, and enhanced perspectives on life. These psychological benefits did not translate into better school attendance or cognitive outcomes. Our results indicate that mental health interventions alone may not be sufficient to improve educational performance in low-resource environments. |
| Keywords: | education, teen mental health, therapy, Nepal |
| JEL: | D12 I12 I15 I31 I32 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17884 |
| By: | Ioana Botea (World Bank); Markus Goldstein (Center for Global Development); Kenneth Houngbedji (DIAL, LEDa, CNRS, IRD, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL); Florence Kondylis (World Bank); Michael O’Sullivan (World Bank); Harris Selod (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In many parts of the world, women’s land rights remain informal, leaving widows—especially those without a male heir—at high risk of losing access to their land and homes when their husbands die. We study whether large-scale land formalization programs can improve widows’ tenure security, using data from a randomized controlled trial in rural Benin. Four years after the intervention, widows in villages with land formalization were significantly more likely to remain in their homes, with the strongest effects among those without a male heir. We identify two key mechanisms: increased community recognition of women’s land rights and greater decision-making power over land resources. These findings highlight the potential of land formalization to strengthen women’s tenure security and promote their long-term economic stability in similar settings. |
| Keywords: | property rights, land administration, gender, widowhood, intra-household insurance |
| JEL: | D23 I31 J12 J16 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:718 |
| By: | Cathy (Liu); Yang; Kevin Bauer; Xitong Li; Oliver Hinz |
| Abstract: | Amid ongoing policy and managerial debates on keeping humans in the loop of AI decision-making, we investigate whether human involvement in AI-based service production benefits downstream consumers. Partnering with a large savings bank in Europe, we produced pure AI and human-AI collaborative investment advice, passed it to customers, and examined their advice-taking in a field experiment. On the production side, contrary to concerns that humans might inefficiently override AI output, we find that giving a human banker the final say over AI-generated financial advice does not compromise its quality. More importantly, on the consumption side, customers are more likely to follow investment advice from the human-AI collaboration compared to pure AI, especially when facing riskier decisions. In our setting, this increased reliance leads to higher material welfare for consumers. Additional analyses from the field experiment and an online experiment show that the persuasive power of human-AI advice cannot be explained by consumers' beliefs about enhanced advice quality due to human-AI complementarities. Instead, the benefit stems from human involvement acting as a peripheral cue that increases the advice's affective appeal. Our findings suggest that regulations and guidelines should adopt a consumer-centered approach by fostering service environments in which humans and AI systems can collaborate to improve consumer outcomes. These insights are relevant for managers designing AI-based services and for policymakers advocating for human oversight in AI systems. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03707 |
| By: | Morshed, Monzur |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of a classroom-integrated computer-assisted learning (CAL) program in primary schools through a randomized controlled trial. Building on the ProFuturo model, the intervention combines tablet-based lessons, structured teacher training, and collaborative classroom practices. The research examines effects on student learning, teacher attendance, and classroom engagement, using baseline and end-line data from 40 schools. Results will inform the effectiveness of digital learning tools in low-resource settings. |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qczse_v1 |
| By: | Jian, Wenze; Zhong, Ziqi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how eco-positioning strategies influence consumers’ evaluations of fashion brands, their willingness to pay for eco-friendly fashion products, and their sustainable fashion consumption intentions. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Value-Belief-Norm Theory, this study constructs an integrated analysis framework. Data were collected through a structured online experiment, wherein participants completed three randomized experimental modules, each testing a distinct dependent variable. Within each module, participants were independently assigned to different eco-positioning stimuli. The results indicate that eco-positioning significantly affects brand evaluation and purchase intention, with process-related eco-positioning having a stronger effect. High brand familiarity enhances the effectiveness of eco-positioning strategies. Strong eco-positioning remarkably increases consumers’ willingness to pay, with perceived environmental sustainability playing an important mediating role. Additionally, sustainable fashion consumption intention under eco-positioning advertising is markedly higher than that under other advertising conditions, with environmental concern and fashion involvement acting as key moderating factors. |
| Keywords: | fashion marketing; eco-positioning; consumer perception; sustainability |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128137 |
| By: | Lena Dräger; Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke |
| Abstract: | Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations, belief formation, peer effects, survey experiment, economic experts |
| JEL: | E31 E71 D84 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11892 |
| By: | Jingru WANG (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University); Yukihiko FUNAKI (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Ryuichiro ISHIKAWA (School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University); Yoshiaki OGURA (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This study conducts the first laboratory experiment using a direct mechanism to investigate the efficiency of the Book-building (BB) method in Initial Public Offering (IPO) pricing. Contrary to the global empirical regularity of IPO underpricing, our experiment frequently observes overpricing relative to the fundamental value. This phenomenon is caused by overstated offers and particularly pronounced when investors are unsophisticated, suggesting that overpricing arises from insufficient compensation on information elicitation, belief-action mismatches, and sentimental behavior as explained by investor active participant bias. Our findings offer two main contributions. First, we demonstrate that, in the absence of ex ante screening and ex post adjustments, the theoretical model of the BB method results in severe IPO overpricing, necessitating the setting of filing range and issuer’s strategic underpricing adjustment. Second, investor sentiment can be seen as the cause of price increases in both IPOs and first-day closing prices, the extent is determined by the proportion of unsophisticated investors. These results highlight the effect of behavioral distortions in IPO pricing and point to the importance of institutional sophistication and investor screening in improving the efficiency and transparency of BB method. |
| Keywords: | IPO, Book-building, Underpricing, Active Participation Hypothesis |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Si, Yafei (University of Melbourne); Chen, Gang (University of Melbourne); Zhou, Zhongliang (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Yip, Winnie (Harvard University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | There is a lack of understanding of what may drive gender disparities in healthcare utilization and outcomes. We present novel evidence on the impact of physician-patient gender match on healthcare quality using standardized patients (SPs) in an experiment, and collected interactions between SPs and physicians in a primary care setting. We find that, compared with female physicians treating female SPs, female physicians treating male SPs had a 23.4 pp increase in correct diagnosis and a 19.0 pp increase in correct drug prescriptions. Despite substantial gains in healthcare quality, there was no significant rise in medical costs or time investment. The gains in care quality were partly attributed to better physician-patient communications, not the presence of more clinical information. More importantly, female physicians treating male SPs prescribed more unnecessary tests but fewer unnecessary drugs to balance their time commitment and costs. The results suggest the role of gender norms and physician defensive behavior when female physicians treat male SPs. Our findings imply that improving patient centeredness may lead to significant gains in the quality of healthcare with modest costs, while reducing gender gaps in care quality. |
| Keywords: | standardized patient, healthcare quality, gender disparities, experiment, China |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I14 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17894 |
| By: | Zoë B. Cullen; Bobak Pakzad-Hurson; Ricardo Perez-Truglia |
| Abstract: | Salary negotiations are a widespread phenomenon that can shape key labor market outcomes, such as welfare and inequality. We provide novel empirical and theoretical insights into the causes and consequences of salary negotiations. We conducted two field experiments involving over 3, 100 job seekers in the U.S. tech sector, designed to examine two types of information frictions. We find that a light-touch encouragement intervention significantly increased both negotiation attempts and compensation gains. In contrast, providing a substantial discount on negotiation coaching did not significantly affect negotiation attempts. Women responded more strongly to both interventions, helping to narrow gender gaps. We develop a new model of salary negotiations, incorporating risk and information frictions, that can better explain our experimental and non-experimental findings. The model's equilibrium analysis indicates that policies encouraging negotiation can enhance both welfare and equity. |
| JEL: | C9 D80 J30 J38 J7 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33903 |
| By: | Javdani, Mohsen (Simon Fraser University); Chang, Ha-Joon (SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the growing debate over the narrow ideological discourse in economics education and calls for greater pluralism. Using a randomized controlled experiment with 2, 735 economics students from 10 countries, we examine how authority and ideological biases—shaped by mainstream training—affect students’ evaluations of economic statements. When source attributions are randomly switched from mainstream to non-mainstream or removed, agreement levels drop significantly, suggesting that students rely more on the perceived authority and ideological alignment of sources than on the content itself. These biases intensify with academic progression: PhD students show the strongest effects, despite being the most likely to claim they judge arguments on substance alone. Political orientation further amplifies these patterns, particularly among right-leaning students, and significant gender differences emerge, with male students showing stronger bias toward mainstream sources. Our findings highlight how ideology and authority shape economic training, limiting students' critical engagement and reinforcing a narrow intellectual framework. |
| Keywords: | economics education, economics students, authority bias, ideological bias, ideology, plurality in economics |
| JEL: | A11 A12 A13 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17891 |
| By: | Garlick, Robert (Duke University); Field, Erica (Duke University); Vyborny, Kate (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study whether commuting barriers constrain women’s labor supply in urban Pakistan. We randomize offers of gender-segregated or mixed-gender commuting services at varying prices. Women-only transport more than doubles job application rates, while mixed-gender transport has minimal effects on men’s and women’s application rates. Women value the women-only service more than large price discounts for the mixed-gender service. Results are similar for baseline labor force participants and non-participants, suggesting there are many “latent jobseekers” close to the margin of participation. These findings highlight the importance of safety and propriety concerns in women’s labor decisions. |
| Keywords: | gender, mobility, transport, female labor force participation |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J28 L91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17883 |
| By: | Heidland, Tobias; Wichardt, Philipp C. |
| Abstract: | This paper connects insights from the literature on cosmopolitan worldviews and the effects of perspective-taking in political science, (intergroup) anxiety in social psychology, and identity economics in a vignette-style experiment. In particular, we asked German respondents about their attitudes towards a Syrian refugee, randomizing components of his description (N = 662). The main treatment describes the refugee as being aware of and empathetic towards potential worries in the German population about cultural change, costs, and violence associated with refugee inflows. This perspective-taking by the refugee increases the reported ability to empathize with the refugee and, especially for risk-averse people, reported sympathy and trust. We argue that acknowledging the potential concerns of the host population relieves the tension between an anxious and a cosmopolitan/open part of people’s identities. Moreover, relieved tension renders people less defensive; i.e. when one aspect of identity is already acknowledged (expressing anxieties), it has less influence on actual behavior (expressing sympathy). In addition, previous contact with foreigners and a higher willingness to take risks are important factors in determining an individual’s willingness to interact with refugees. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318201 |
| By: | Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Kramer, Berber; Trachtman, Carly; Abate, Gashaw T. |
| Abstract: | Semi-subsistence farmers in developing countries often play dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops. Consequently, decisions regarding crop selection are influenced by a com bination of household consumption needs and market-oriented considerations. In this policy note, we summarize findings from a field experiment suggesting that integrating con sumption-oriented traits such as taste, color, and ease of cooking alongside production advantages is crucial for driving demand for improved crop varieties. The field experiment consists of two interventions designed to enhance the adoption of improved maize seed varieties among smallholder farmers in eastern Uganda. The first intervention involves providing farmers with free seed sample packs to plant and directly experience the production related benefits, such as higher yield potential and drought resistance. The second intervention consists of organizing cooking demonstrations and blind tasting sessions to compare maize from improved variety with local varieties, focusing on consumption traits like palatability, texture, and ease of cooking. We find that the seed sample packs significantly enhance farmers' perceptions of the seed's production traits, while the cooking demonstrations improve appreciation for its consumption traits. We also find that the cooking demonstration and tasting session increased the use of fresh Bazooka seed, with some indications that this also led to higher maize productivity. On the other hand, farmers who received the sample packs are more likely to reuse/recycle the grain harvested from the sample pack as seed in the subsequent season, essentially crowding out the demand for fresh/purchased seed. We argue that this may be a rational response in the context of positive transaction costs related to the use of improved seed varieties |
| Keywords: | consumer behaviour; crops; varieties; seeds; farmers; cooking; maize; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pacewp:168659 |
| By: | Adeline L. Delavande; Gizem Koşar; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples, and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online survey of 2, 200 middle-aged married couples in the US. Our focus is on expectations about Social Security benefits. We first document misalignment in expectations: the correlation between partners’ beliefs about a given spouse’s Social Security benefits is 0.70, well below full agreement. We also show that this imperfect alignment is systematically associated with couple-specific characteristics. To establish causal evidence on information spillovers, we implement a randomized information experiment paired with a sequential survey design, where the index spouse receives targeted information, and the other is surveyed a few days later. Our findings reveal that information provided to the index spouse partially spills over to their partner, with the average treatment effect on the second spouse’s expectations being about half that observed for the index spouse. Using detailed survey data on measures of communication frictions, cognitive barriers, and the value of information, we identify key drivers of information flow. Spillovers are larger when communication barriers are low and when the information is particularly valuable. We also show that the information treatment enhances conditions for better intra-household decision-making. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating realistic communication frictions into models of household decision-making. |
| JEL: | D83 H31 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33879 |
| By: | Faith Fatchen; John List; Francesca Pagnotta |
| Abstract: | In recent years, field experiments have reshaped policy worldwide, but scaling ideas remains a thorny challenge. Perhaps the most important issue facing policymakers today is deciding which ideas to scale. One approach to attenuate this information problem is to augment traditional A/B experimental designs to address questions of scalability from the beginning. List 2024 denotes this approach as “Option C†thinking. Using early education as a case study, we show how AI can overcome a critical barrier in Option C thinking – generating viable options for scaling experimentation. By integrating AI-driven insights, this approach strengthens the link between controlled trials and large-scale implementation, ensuring the production of policy-based evidence for effective decision-making. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00822 |
| By: | Adeline Delavande; Gizem Koşar; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online survey of 2, 200 middle-aged married couples in the U.S. Our focus is on expectations about Social Security benefits. We first document misalignment in expectations: the correlation between partners’ beliefs about a given spouse’s Social Security benefits is 0.70, well below full agreement. We also show that this imperfect alignment is systematically associated with couple-specific characteristics. To establish causal evidence on information spillovers, we implement a randomized information experiment paired with a sequential survey design, where the index spouse receives targeted information, and the other is surveyed a few days later. Our findings reveal that information provided to the index spouse partially spills over to their partner, with the average treatment effect on the second spouse’s expectations being about half that observed for the index spouse. Using detailed survey data on measures of communication frictions, cognitive barriers, and the value of information, we identify key drivers of information flow. Spillovers are larger when communication barriers are low and when the information is particularly valuable. We also show that the information treatment enhances conditions for better intra-household decision-making. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating realistic communication frictions into models of household decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Information; spillovers; expectations; Household financial decisions; frictions; Social Security benefits; retirement |
| JEL: | D83 D84 D13 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:100084 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn; Matthew Gentzkow; Rafael Jiménez-Durán; Aaron Leonard; Filip Milojević; Christopher Roth |
| Abstract: | Market definition is essential for antitrust analysis, but challenging in settings with network effects, where substitution patterns depend on changes in network size. To address this challenge, we conduct an incentivized experiment to measure substitution patterns for TikTok, a popular social media platform. Our experiment, conducted during a time of high uncertainty about a potential U.S. TikTok ban, compares changes in the valuation of other social apps under individual and collective TikTok deactivations. Consistent with a simple framework, the valuations of alternative social apps increase more in response to a collective TikTok ban than to an individual TikTok deactivation. Our framework and estimates highlight that individual and collective treatments can even lead to qualitatively different conclusions about which alternative goods are substitutes. |
| JEL: | D85 L0 L40 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33901 |
| By: | Carlos Alos Ferrer; Johannes Buckenmaier; Michele Garagnani |
| Abstract: | Economic decisions are noisy due to errors and cognitive imprecision. Often, they are also systematically biased by heuristics or behavioral rules of thumb, creating behavioral anomalies which challenge established economic theories. The interaction of noise and bias, however, has been mostly neglected, and recent work suggests that received behavioral anomalies might be just due to regularities in the noise. This contribution formalizes the idea that decision makers might follow a mixture of rules of behavior combining cognitively- imprecise value maximization and computationally simpler shortcuts. The model delivers new testable predictions which we validate in two experiments, focusing on biases in probability judgments and the certainty effect in lottery choice, respectively. Our findings suggest that neither cognitive imprecision nor multiplicity of behavioral rules suffice to explain received patterns in economic decision making. However, jointly modeling (cognitive) noise in value maximization and biases arising from simpler, cognitive shortcuts delivers a unified framework which can parsimoniously explain deviations from normative prescriptions across domains. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive Imprecision, Strength of Preference, Noise, Decision Biases, Belief Updating, Certainty Heuristic |
| JEL: | D01 D81 D87 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:423483206 |
| By: | Bonan, Jacopo; Granella, Francesco; Renna, Stefania; Sarmiento, Luis; Tavoni, Massimo |
| Abstract: | We randomize the installation of air purifiers across primary school classrooms to reduce children’s exposure to air pollution. The intervention reduces indoor PM₂.₅ concentrations by 32% and decreases student absenteeism by 12.5%. Effects are larger among students with higher pre-treatment absenteeism. The impact is greater when outdoor air pollution is relatively low and diminishes as outdoor pollution intensifies, consistent with non-linear marginal effects of air quality on health. The treatment students report fewer respiratory symptoms and exhibit greater awareness of air quality. The cost per absence day avoided is approximately € 11, resulting in a conservative cost-benefit ratio of one-to-nine.JEL codes: C93, I21, Q53, Q51Keywords: Indoor air quality, air purifiers, school absences, randomized controlled trial |
| Date: | 2025–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-17 |
| By: | Abigail Hurwitz; Olivia S. Mitchell |
| Abstract: | We investigate how advisors’ own health and survival assessments, and information about their advisees’ health and survival probabilities, shape their recommendations regarding retirement spending and investment. Using experiments involving amateur and professional advisors, we show that advisors’ self-assessments have only mild effects on their recommendations, but they do respond differently when provided longevity and health information about their advisees. Moreover, amateur advisors mainly react to simple cues, while professional advisors are more sensitive to client-specific information. While many rely on informal advice from friends or family, amateurs often cannot accurately analyze and utilize key information needed to provide suitable advice. |
| JEL: | D91 G52 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33872 |
| By: | Henrike Sternberg (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology & TUM School of Management, Munich School of Politcs and Public Policy & Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Janina Isabel Steinert (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology & TUM School of Medicine and Health, Munich School of Politcs and Public Policy); Tim Büthe (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology & TUM School of Management, Munich School of Politcs and Public Policy & Duke Univery, Sanford School of Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how inequality aversion shapes public support of international redistributive policies. We investigate this question in the context of the global allocation of vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic, using online survey data from incentivized behavioral games and a discrete choice experiment conducted with German citizens in April 2021 (N=2, 402). We distinguish between aversion to advantageous inequality (others worse off, the ’guilt’ parameter) and aversion to disadvantageous inequality (others better off, the ’envy’ parameter). These two forms of inequality aversion shape German citizens’ attitudes towards the cross-country allocation of resources in distinct ways: While higher levels of the guilt parameter significantly increase respondents’ likelihood to prioritize an equitable vaccine allocation, the envy parameter is associated with lower support thereof. These findings suggest that inequality aversion matters for citizens’ support of redistribution beyond the national level and emphasize that distinguishing between both forms of inequality aversion is crucial. |
| Keywords: | Distributional preferences; Inequality aversion; International inequality; Covid-19 pandemic; Support for vaccine donations; Survey experiment |
| JEL: | C83 D63 D91 H87 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:43 |
| By: | Dube, Isha; Quaas, Martin; Sagebiel, Julian; Voss, Rudi |
| Abstract: | Many fish consumers reveal a preference for sustainably sourced seafood in their purchasing decisions. We propose a bioeconomic modeling approach and an empirical strategy, based on a discrete choice experiment, to quantify the resulting effects on fishery dynamics and to derive implications for efficient fishery management. We show that a “consumer stock effect” arises, which stabilizes a fishery under open access and which decreases catches under economically efficient management. We quantify these effects for the Western Baltic cod fishery. |
| Keywords: | bioeconomic model, discrete choice experiment, fisheries, renewable resource management, sustainability label |
| JEL: | Q11 Q22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318204 |
| By: | Jianhao Lin; Lexuan Sun; Yixin Yan |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel framework for simulating macroeconomic expectation formation using Large Language Model-Empowered Agents (LLM Agents). By constructing thousands of LLM Agents equipped with modules for personal characteristics, prior expectations, and knowledge, we replicate a survey experiment involving households and experts on inflation and unemployment. Our results show that although the expectations and thoughts generated by LLM Agents are more homogeneous than those of human participants, they still effectively capture key heterogeneity across agents and the underlying drivers of expectation formation. Furthermore, a module-ablation exercise highlights the critical role of prior expectations in simulating such heterogeneity. This approach complements traditional survey methods and offers new insights into AI behavioral science in macroeconomic research. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17648 |
| By: | Olivier Toubia; George Z. Gui; Tianyi Peng; Daniel J. Merlau; Ang Li; Haozhe Chen |
| Abstract: | LLM-based digital twin simulation, where large language models are used to emulate individual human behavior, holds great promise for research in AI, social science, and digital experimentation. However, progress in this area has been hindered by the scarcity of real, individual-level datasets that are both large and publicly available. This lack of high-quality ground truth limits both the development and validation of digital twin methodologies. To address this gap, we introduce a large-scale, public dataset designed to capture a rich and holistic view of individual human behavior. We survey a representative sample of $N = 2, 058$ participants (average 2.42 hours per person) in the US across four waves with 500 questions in total, covering a comprehensive battery of demographic, psychological, economic, personality, and cognitive measures, as well as replications of behavioral economics experiments and a pricing survey. The final wave repeats tasks from earlier waves to establish a test-retest accuracy baseline. Initial analyses suggest the data are of high quality and show promise for constructing digital twins that predict human behavior well at the individual and aggregate levels. By making the full dataset publicly available, we aim to establish a valuable testbed for the development and benchmarking of LLM-based persona simulations. Beyond LLM applications, due to its unique breadth and scale the dataset also enables broad social science research, including studies of cross-construct correlations and heterogeneous treatment effects. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17479 |
| By: | Justin Ho; Jonathan Min |
| Abstract: | Experimental designs are fundamental for estimating causal effects. In some fields, within-subjects designs, which expose participants to both control and treatment at different time periods, are used to address practical and logistical concerns. Counterbalancing, a common technique in within-subjects designs, aims to remove carryover effects by randomizing treatment sequences. Despite its appeal, counterbalancing relies on the assumption that carryover effects are symmetric and cancel out, which is often unverifiable a priori. In this paper, we formalize the challenges of counterbalanced within-subjects designs using the potential outcomes framework. We introduce sequential exchangeability as an additional identification assumption necessary for valid causal inference in these designs. To address identification concerns, we propose diagnostic checks, the use of washout periods, and covariate adjustments, and alternative experimental designs to counterbalanced within-subjects design. Our findings demonstrate the limitations of counterbalancing and provide guidance on when and how within-subjects designs can be appropriately used for causal inference. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.03937 |
| By: | Modibo K. Camara; Nicole Immorlica; Brendan Lucier |
| Abstract: | If people find it costly to evaluate the options available to them, their choices may not directly reveal their preferences. Yet, it is conceivable that a researcher can still learn about a population's preferences with careful experiment design. We formalize the researcher's problem in a model of robust mechanism design where it is costly for individuals to learn about how much they value a product. We characterize the statistics that the researcher can identify, and find that they are quite restricted. Finally, we apply our positive results to social choice and propose a way to combat uninformed voting. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.19570 |