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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Jeanne Hagenbach (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Jacquemet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Philipp Sternal (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We propose a two-stage experiment in which people receive feedback about their relative intelligence. This feedback is a noisy message reminded at every stage, so that subjects cannot forget this ego-relevant information. Instead, we exogenously vary whether the informativeness of the message is reminded in the second stage. We investigate how this treatment variation affects the informativeness reported by subjects, and their posterior beliefs about their intelligence. We show that subjects report informativeness in a self-serving way: subjects with negative messages report that these messages are significantly less informative in the absence of reminder than with it. We also show that the lack of reminder about message informativeness allows subjects to keep a better image of themselves. These results are confirmed by complementary treatments in which we decrease messages informativeness: subjects tend to inflate the informativeness of positive messages that should now be interpreted as bad news. |
| Keywords: | Controlled experiment, Motivated beliefs, Overconfidence, Noisy feedback |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-05064934 |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer; Thomas Rittmannsberger; Katharina Werner; Helen Zeidler |
| Abstract: | We study anchoring effects in the elicitation of multidimensional beliefs within a single survey task using a representative sample of the German voting-age population. Respondents estimated governmentspending levels across several domains (e.g., education, defense, social security), with randomized exposure to different informational anchors in one domain. Anchors significantly influence elicited beliefs in related domains and partially also shift respondents’ policy preferences. While the anchors change absolute estimates, perceived government-spending rankings remain stable. These findings offer methodological guidance for survey design involving multidimensional belief elicitation in informationprovision experiments. |
| Keywords: | anchoring, experiment, beliefs, survey, government spending |
| JEL: | D83 C83 C90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11912 |
| By: | Bahník, Štěpán (University of Economics, Prague); Houdek, Petr (University of Economics in Prague); Hudik, Marek; Say, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Honest individuals can strategically assume positions of power to prevent dishonest individuals from taking these positions. We conducted a laboratory experiment where participants were given two versions of an incentivized prediction task, one of which allowed cheating. Cheating on the task led a charity to lose endowed money. By introducing an auction for a limited spot in the cheating-enabling version, we examined whether honest participants bid in the auction to prevent dishonest participants from cheating and thereby harming the charity. We found that such behavior was rare, with at most 2.2% of participants engaging in it. Furthermore, the size of the charity loss and the presence of information about cheating of others did not affect bidding in the auction and cheating in the task. The participants willing to pay for the cheating-enabling version of the task did so primarily for their own gain. The prosocial preferences of honest individuals are not strong enough to prevent dishonest individuals from seizing positions of power, and only a few honest individuals are prepared to combat dishonesty actively. |
| Date: | 2025–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gsa7k_v1 |
| By: | Tomohito Aoyama; Nobuyuki Hanaki |
| Abstract: | The random incentive system (RIS) is a standard incentive scheme used to elicit preferences in economic experiments. However, it has been speculated that RIS may distort observed preferences. We examine the performance of RIS under ambiguity with two sets of experiments, our own and another replicating the main treatments of Baillon et al. (2022a). Contrary to Baillon et al. (2022a), who report a significantly lower proportion of participants revealing strict ambiguity aversion in the treatment with RIS than the one without, we do not find such evidence either in our own or in replication of Baillon et al. (2022a). |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1236r |
| By: | Stijn Bruers; Erwin Ooghe; Erik Schokkaert |
| Abstract: | We conducted a large-scale and long lasting randomized field experiment at the donation centers of the Belgian Red Cross-Flanders to study the impact of a small extra reward for plasma donations. Donors normally receive one thank-you-coupon (worth €1.5) for a blood donation and two coupons for a plasma donation. Informing donors about these existing rewards increased plasma donations with on average 4.6% per month over a nine-month information period. Rewarding plasma donations with an extra thank-you-coupon increased plasma donations with an additional 7.1% per month over a six-month reward period. However, the extra reward for plasma decreased blood donations at donation centers with on average 3.3% per month over the reward period. Results of an additional representative survey show that a desire (i) to reciprocate the extra coupon and (ii) to respond to the extra coupon as a signal of higher needs are plausible prosocial motivations to explain the strong effect of a small extra quasi-cash reward. The survey results also suggest that our findings are not only relevant for plasma donations, but also for volunteering more generally. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, plasma, quasi-cash, small rewards, prosocial behavior, volunteering |
| JEL: | C93 D91 I18 L30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11899 |
| By: | Namrata Kala; Madeline McKelway |
| Abstract: | In many economic settings, agents lack decision rights but provide input. Intra-household decision-making in contexts with restrictive gender norms is one important example; wives often lack final say over decisions but still give input. Their ability to communicate persuasively while providing input could sway decisions in their favor. We conduct a field experiment in rural India to test whether an effective communication training among married women impacts their labor supply, the most common topic of intra-household disagreement in the sample. The treatment shifted women's communication styles towards the techniques taught in the training. We find positive effects on labor supply and earnings but, consistent with theory, only for women who at baseline were more interested than their husbands in the women working. These effects persist to at least one year following the treatment, leading to a nearly 60% increase in earnings over this period. Mechanisms analyses suggest the changes in labor supply are not due to shifts in bargaining power but rather come from women changing their husbands' preferences about female employment. |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33747 |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Campus Heilbronn & ifo Institute); Thomas Rittmansberger (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management); Katharina Werner (Pforzheim University, CESifo & IZA); Helen Zeidler (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Campus Heilbronn) |
| Abstract: | We study anchoring effects in the elicitation of multidimensional beliefs within a single survey task using a representative sample of the German voting-age population. Respondents estimated governmentspending levels across several domains (e.g., education, defense, social security), with randomized exposure to different informational anchors in one domain. Anchors significantly influence elicited beliefs in related domains and partially also shift respondents’ policy preferences. While the anchors change absolute estimates, perceived government-spending rankings remain stable. These findings offer methodological guidance for survey design involving multidimensional belief elicitation in informationprovision experiments. |
| Keywords: | Anchoring, experiment, beliefs, survey, government spending |
| JEL: | D83 C83 C90 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:42 |
| By: | Yevgeny Mugerman; Eyal Winter; Tomer Yafeh |
| Abstract: | We explore strategic betting in competitive environments with multiple participants and potential winners. We examine two scenarios: an “inclusive†low-competition scenario with many winners and an “exclusive†high-competition scenario with few winners. Using a simple model, we illustrate the strategic insights in these scenarios and present experimental results that align with our predictions. In the experiment, participants made repeated bets with feedback on past results and their payoffs. In the inclusive scenario, all but the worst guessers were rewarded, while in the exclusive scenario, only the top guessers received rewards. Our findings show that in the inclusive scenario, participants exhibit herding behavior by coordinating their bets, while in the exclusive scenario, they diversify their bets across multiple options. The main general insight of our findings is that in moderate competitions, one tends to join the majority to avoid standing out in case of failure, whereas in intense competitions, one tends to differentiate oneself from one’s peers to ensure that success stands out. This insight is relevant for a broad domain of strategic interactions. |
| Keywords: | Experimental Economics, Competitive Decision-Making, Herding Behavior, Divergence Strategy, Inclusive vs. Exclusive Scenarios, Multi-Winner Competition |
| JEL: | C9 D7 D8 L1 M3 G1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:423283787 |
| By: | Michèle Belot; Bart K. de Koning; Didier Fouarge; Philipp Kircher; Paul Muller; Sandra Phlippen |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of online information provision to unemployed job seekers who are looking for work in occupations in slack markets, i.e. with only few vacancies per job seeker. Job seekers received suggestions about suitable alternative occupations, and how the prospects of these alternatives compare to their current occupation of interest. Some additionally received a link to a motivational video. We evaluate the interventions using a randomized field experiment covering all eligible job seekers registered to search in the target occupations. The vast majority of treated job seekers open the message revealing the alternative suggestions. The motivational video is rarely watched. Effects on unemployed job seekers in structurally poor labor markets are large: their employment, hours of work and labor income all improve by 5% to 6% after 18 months. Additional survey evidence shows that treated job seekers find employment in more diverse occupations. |
| JEL: | C93 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33819 |
| By: | Giulia Greco (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Selim Gulesci (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Pallavi Prabhakar (BRAC Institute of Governance and Development); Munshi Sulaiman (BRAC Institute of Governance and Development) |
| Abstract: | We present evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda where married women were randomly provided unconditional cash transfers. Among treated women, we randomized the modality of payment (in cash or mobile money) and whether the beneficiary's spouse was informed about the transfer or not. We find that using mobile money for cash transfers is more effective in improving women’s economic independence and decision-making power. In particular, women in the mobile money treatments have higher individual labor income and more of a say in household decisions. On the other hand, cash-based transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both partners are informed. This highlights a trade-off between improving the effectiveness of cash transfers on women’s economic empowerment versus reducing IPV. While providing cash transfers digitally is more effective in improving women's control over resources, this may lower their effectiveness in addressing IPV. |
| Keywords: | Digital finance, cash transfers, women's empowerment, domestic violence, privacy |
| JEL: | C93 D10 D82 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0425 |
| By: | Aidan Coville (World Bank); Joshua Graff Zivin (UC San Diego - University of California [San Diego] - UC - University of California, NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Arndt Reichert (Leibniz Universität Hannover=Leibniz University Hannover, World Bank); Ann-Kristin Reitmann (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universität Passau [Passau]) |
| Abstract: | Solar technologies have been associated with private and social returns, but their technological potential often remains unachieved because of persistently low demand for high-quality products. In a randomized field experiment in Senegal, we assess the potential of three types of quality signaling to increase demand for highquality solar lamps. We find no effect on demand when consumers are offered a money-back guarantee but increased demand with a third-party certification or warranty, consistent with the notion that consumers are uncertain about product durability rather than their utility. However, despite the higher willingness to pay, the prices they would pay are still well below market prices for the average household, suggesting that reducing information asymmetries alone is insufficient to encourage wider adoption. Surprisingly, we also find that the effective quality signals in our setting stimulate demand for low-quality products by creating product-class effects among those least familiar with the product. |
| Keywords: | Information asymmetries, Quality signaling, Solar lamps, Willingness to pay, Becker-DeGroot-Marschak, Technology adoption |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05057994 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn; Ingar Haaland; Nicolas Röver; Christopher Roth; Ingar K. Haaland |
| Abstract: | Social desirability bias (SDB) is a pervasive threat to the validity of survey and experimental data. Respondents might often misreport sensitive attitudes and behaviors to appear more socially acceptable. We begin by synthesizing empirical evidence on the prevalence and magnitude of SDB across various domains, focusing on studies with individual-level bench marks. We then critically assess commonly used strategies to mitigate SDB, highlighting how they can sometimes fail by creating confusion or inadvertently increasing perceived sensitivity. To help researchers navigate these challenges, we offer practical guidance on selecting the most suitable tools for different research contexts. Finally, we examine how SDB can distort treatment effects in experiments and discuss mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | social desirability, surveys, experiments, mitigation strategies |
| JEL: | B41 C83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11911 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago & NBER); Ingar Haaland (NHH Norwegian School of Economics, FAIR, & CEPR); Nicolas Röver (University of Cologne); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Social desirability bias (SDB) is a pervasive threat to the validity of survey and experimental data. Respondents might often misreport sensitive attitudes and behaviors to appear more socially acceptable. We begin by synthesizing empirical evidence on the prevalence and magnitude of SDB across various domains, focusing on studies with individual-level benchmarks. We then critically assess commonly used strategies to mitigate SDB, highlighting how they can sometimes fail by creating confusion or inadvertently increasing perceived sensitivity. To help researchers navigate these challenges, we offer practical guidance on selecting the most suitable tools for different research contexts. Finally, we examine how SDB can distort treatment effects in experiments and discuss mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social Desirability, Surveys, Experiments, Mitigation Strategies |
| JEL: | B41 C83 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:365 |
| By: | Ori Heffetz; Yehonatan Caspi |
| Abstract: | What should researchers consider when designing experiments that (also) collect self-reported well-being (SWB) data? Focusing on experiments in economics, we examine the motivation behind SWB-data collection, survey leading past examples, and highlight potential pitfalls and their proposed countermeasures. We offer three main messages and a call to action. First, SWB measures should be handled with caution, especially in experiments. Second, despite their limitations, SWB measures can be used cleverly in the lab to provide evidence on questions that choice data alone cannot answer. Third, when collected, analyzed, and interpreted with appropriate caution, SWB measures can be important policy-evaluation outcomes, complementing the inherently incomplete picture provided by more traditional outcomes. We call on researchers to carefully and thoughtfully collect (a variety of) SWB measures in their online, lab, and field experiments. Such a joint, decentralized effort would also mean that over time, SWB data get explored, accumulated, and, hopefully, better understood. |
| JEL: | C83 C90 D90 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33847 |
| By: | Wicker, Till (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Dalton, Patricio (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); van Soest, Daan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | Cash Transfers; mental accounting; Humanitarian Aid; refugees |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:a92dc757-d6b5-4802-8639-c1cbc6523a93 |
| By: | Yuhong Gao (Fudan University [Shanghai]); Thierry Blayac (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a study to assess the impact of a delegation option on moral decision-making using an online questionnaire based on the Moral Machine paradigm1. Interestingly, the inclusion of a delegation option did not significantly alter individuals' moral tradeoffs. Nevertheless, when presented with the option, most participants opted for delegation as a means to avoid the moral burden of challenging decisions, regardless of the delegate's profile. Factors influencing this choice included gender (favoring females), occupation (doctors), education level (lower), a strong sense of altruism, less frequent driving, and greater risk aversion. Additionally, participants displayed a preference for saving more lives, with particular emphasis on babies, pregnant women, doctors, and law-abiding victims, indicating a general aversion to death. |
| Keywords: | Transport Policy Moral machine paradigm, moral dilemma, delegation, freedom of choice, behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05058037 |
| By: | George Joseph (World Bank Group); Josepa Miquel-Florensa (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yi Rong Hoo (World Bank Group); Sanjay Pahuja (World Bank Group); Tewodros Tebekew (World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | We present a lab-in-the-field experiment with employees of the Addis Ababa Water and Sanitation Authority to understand how to improve co-ordination and collaboration in their daily work. Participants play a series of public good games under different rules: a standard game, a game with a threshold, and a game with a randomly selected anonymous monitor with the power to punish. We show that a common goal, in the form of a thresh-old to be attained for the group's success, is significantly more effective than a potentially punishing monitor for increasing individual effort and, ultimately, group outcomes (conditional on the threshold being attained). |
| Keywords: | Intrinsic motivation, Public utilities, Organizational economics |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05057558 |
| By: | Lisa Bruttel (Universität Potsdam, Berlin School of Economics, CEPA); Friedericke Fromme (Universität Potsdam); Vasilisa Werner (Universität Potsdam, Berlin School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study how communication influences suspicion. The experiment uses a sender-receiver setup with a low probability of misaligned incentives for senders and receivers. We focus on the impact of open communication on the receivers’ suspicion as measured by the size of the deviation from the senders’ recommendation before and after the communication. Overall, communication substantially reduces suspicion, but some receivers become more suspicious during the communication. We disentangle these effects using machine learning methods to analyze the chat logs. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, communication, suspicion, lying, laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D82 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:86 |
| By: | Lawrence Choo (University of Macau); Todd R. Kaplan; Ro’i Zultan (BGU) |
| Keywords: | managerial ownership, moral hazard, excess returns, efficient markets, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D53 D8 G14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Isa Hafalir (University of Technology Sydney); Onur Kesten (University of Sydney); Katerina Sherstyuk (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Cong Tao (University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We study a remarkable auction used in several fish markets around the world, notably in Honolulu and Sydney, whereby high-quality fish are sold fast through a hybrid auction that combines the Dutch and the English formats in one auction. Speedy sales are of essence for these perishable goods. Our theoretical model incorporating Òtime costsÓ demonstrates that such Honolulu-Sydney auction is preferred by the auctioneer over the Dutch auction when there are few bidders or when bidders have high time costs. Our laboratory experiments confirm that with a small number of bidders, Honolulu-Sydney auctions are significantly faster than Dutch auctions. Bidders overbid in Dutch, benefiting the auctioneer, but bidding approaches risk-neutral predictions as time costs increase. Bidders fare better in the Honolulu-Sydney format compared to Dutch across all treatments. We further observe bidder attempts to tacitly lower prices in Honolulu- Sydney auctions, substantiating existing concerns about pricing in some fish markets. |
| Keywords: | auction theory, time costs, laboratory experiments |
| JEL: | C7 C92 D02 D44 L0 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:202502 |
| By: | Takahashi, Yuki (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | correction; collaboration; teamwork; gender; experiment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:af739d44-7422-49cb-9cb2-0c5b694d6b4f |
| By: | Beatrice Bertelli (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Marianna Brunetti (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata", GLO and Cefin); Costanza Torricelli (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, CEFIN and CeRP); Mariangela Zoli (CEIS & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata" and SEEDS) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses two main research questions in sustainable finance: what is the household willingness to pay for sustainable investments? Can households be stimulated in this connection by means of visual nudges? To this end we ran a pilot lab-in-the-field experiment in October-November 2024 in different branches of a large Italian bank. Three are the main results. First, the willingness to pay is lower for graduated individuals, but higher for those with an investment horizon between 1 and 5 years, and among those engaged in volunteering and concerned about climate change. Second, the exposure to a negative visual treatment, by contrast to a positive one, causes an average increase in the willingness to pay for Environmental, Social, and Governance assets, albeit this effect vanishes once the model is augmented with control variables. Third, when dissecting results by the factor of interest, the negative visual treatment significantly increases the willingness to pay among the investors interested in the Environmental dimension only. This suggests that, with a suitable leverage, the demand and willingness to pay for all sustainability dimensions can be nudged, with important industry and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable finance; household financial choices; willingness to pay;visual nudges; lab-in-the field experiment |
| JEL: | D14 G11 M30 |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:600 |
| By: | Cappelen, Alexander W. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sørensen, Erik Ø. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Tungodden, Bertil (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Xu, Xiaogeng (Dept. of Finance and Economics, Hanken School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using a large, probability-based online panel representative of the general population in Norway, we examine how varying delays in the revelation of uncertainty affect risk-taking on behalf of others. We find a precisely estimated null effect of revelation delay on the average proportion choosing a lottery over a safe alternative. A hierarchical Bayesian model of rank-dependent utility also reveals no differences in underlying decision processes across conditions. However, we do observe a paternalistic tendency: participants place greater weight on their own risk preferences than on those they believe others to hold. |
| Keywords: | Risk-taking; decision-making; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C91 D63 D81 |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_013 |
| By: | Amy Wenxuan Ding (EM - EMLyon Business School); Shibo Li (Indiana University [Bloomington] - Indiana University System) |
| Abstract: | Scientists are interested in whether generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) can make scientific discoveries similar to those of humans. However, the results are mixed. Here, we examine whether, how and what scientific discovery GenAI can make in terms of the origin of hypotheses and experimental design through the interpretation of results. With the help of a computer-supported molecular genetic laboratory, GenAI assumes the role of a scientist tasked with investigating a Nobel-worthy scientific discovery in the molecular genetics field. We find that current GenAI can make only incremental discoveries but cannot achieve fundamental discoveries from scratch as humans can. Regarding the origin of the hypothesis, it is unable to generate truly original hypotheses and is incapable of having an epiphany to detect anomalies in experimental results. Therefore, current GenAI is good only at discovery tasks involving either a known representation of the domain knowledge or access to the human scientists' knowledge space. Furthermore, it has the illusion of making a completely successful discovery with overconfidence. We discuss approaches to address the limitations of current GenAI and its ethical concerns and biases in scientific discovery. This research provides insight into the role of GenAI in scientific discovery and general scientific innovation. |
| Keywords: | Scientific discovery, Generative artificial intelligence, Large Language models, ChatGPT |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05053017 |
| By: | Yusuke Aoki; Joon Suk Park; Yuya Takada; Koji Takahashi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between individuals' expectations of job replacement by generative AI (GenAI) and their macroeconomic outlooks and behaviors. Using online surveys combined with randomized experiments conducted in the U.S. and Japan, we derive the following findings about the effects of expecting greater job replacement due to GenAI. First, in both the U.S. and Japan, respondents revise their beliefs after receiving information about GenAI's job replacement ratios. Second, in Japan, such an expectation leads to an increase in inflation expectations driven by a rise in investment. Third, it increases respondents' willingness to use GenAI in workplaces in Japan. Fourth, in the U.S., expectations of greater job replacement amplify concerns about weaker short-term labor demand and reduced skill requirements, particularly among more educated respondents. In addition, these respondents anticipate lower investment, while less educated respondents expect higher investment. |
| Keywords: | Generative Artificial intelligence, labor market, inflation, productivity |
| JEL: | E24 E31 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1269 |
| By: | Buzard, Kristy (Syracuse University); Gee, Laura Katherine (Tufts University); Stoddard, Olga B. (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | Gender imbalance in time spent on child rearing causes gender inequalities in labor market outcomes, human capital accumulation, and economic mobility. We conduct a large-scale field experiment with a near-universe of US schools to investigate a potential source of this inequality: external demands for parental involvement. Schools receive an email from a fictitious two-parent household with a general inquiry and are asked to call one of the parents back. Mothers are 1.4 times more likely than fathers to be contacted. We decompose this inequality into discrimination stemming from differential beliefs about parents’ responsiveness versus other factors and demonstrate that the gender gap in external demands is associated with various measures of gender norms. We also show that signaling father's availability substantially changes the gender pattern of callbacks. Our findings underscore a process through which agents outside the household contribute to within-household gender inequalities. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, gender gap, discrimination |
| JEL: | J16 J71 C93 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17922 |
| By: | Enrico Mattia Salonia (Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Why are investors overconfident and trade excessively? Why do patients at health risk avoid testing? Why are voters polarised? Possibly because their beliefs directly influence their well-being, i.e., they have belief-dependent preferences. However, existing theories of belief-dependent preferences struggle to generate testable predictions or to identify simultaneously beliefs and preferences. This paper addresses these issues by providing an axiomatic characterization of a class of preferences and belief-updating rules that deviate from Bayesian updating. Preferences, beliefs, and updating rules are identified from choices over contingent menus, each entailing a menu of acts available at a later time contingent on an uncertain state of the world. The results provide a theory-based approach to experimental designs to test information avoidance, distortion, and other behaviours consistent with beliefdependent preferences. |
| Keywords: | Belief-dependent preferences, Non-Bayesian updating, Information avoidance, Belief distortion, Contingent menus |
| JEL: | D03 D81 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:599 |
| By: | Yoshikuni ONO; Hirofumi MIWA; Yuko KASUYA |
| Abstract: | Does allowing voters to choose multiple candidates foster diversity in legislative bodies? Majoritarian systems typically restrict voters to casting a ballot for one candidate, yet research suggests that permitting voters to select multiple candidates could boost the election of women and racial minorities. Despite indications of greater diversity under multiple-vote systems, voter behavior evidence remains scarce. To address this, our survey experiment varied the number of selectable candidates on a ballot in local elections. Results revealed that respondents alternated candidate genders, particularly in their second and third choices, supporting the theory that multiple voting promotes diverse representation. However, men more frequently became their first choice when multiple candidates were selectable, giving male candidates an overall advantage on the aggregate level. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25047 |
| By: | Michael E. Darden; Reginald B. Hebert; Michael F. Pesko; Samuel Sturm |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of cigarette excise taxes on smokers’ household budgets. In a randomized survey experiment, smokers respond to tax increases by adjusting cigarette shopping behaviors, substituting towards other tobacco products, and reducing both discretionary and human capital-related expenditures. Using Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a quasi-experimental design, we find cigarette taxes reduce smoking prevalence but increase cigarette expenditures among continuing smokers. Additionally, a $1 increase in cigarette taxes causes a 2.12% decline in human capital-related expenditures among below median income smokers. Our work uncovers important unintended consequences of cigarette taxes, particularly for low-income individuals. |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33746 |
| By: | Kimberly Noble; Katherine Magnuson; Greg Duncan; Lisa A. Gennetian; Hirokazu Yoshikawa; Nathan A. Fox; Sarah Halpern-Meekin; Sonya Troller-Renfree; Sangdo Han; Shannon Egan-Dailey; Timothy D. Nelson; Jennifer Mize Nelson; Sarah Black; Michael Georgieff; Debra Karhson |
| Abstract: | Developmental differences between children growing up in poverty and their higher-income peers are frequently reported. However, the extent to which such differences are caused by differences in family income is unclear. To study the causal role of income on children’s development, the Baby’s First Years randomized control trial provided families with monthly unconditional cash transfers. One thousand racially and ethnically diverse mothers with incomes below the U.S. federal poverty line were recruited from postpartum wards in 2018-19, and randomized to receive either $333/month or $20/month for the first several years of their children’s lives. After the first four years of the intervention (n=891), we find no statistically significant impacts of the cash transfers on four preregistered primary outcomes (language, executive function, social-emotional problems, and high-frequency brain activity) nor on three secondary outcomes (visual processing/spatial perception, pre-literacy, maternal reports of developmental diagnoses). Possible explanations for these results are discussed. |
| JEL: | I3 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33844 |
| By: | Meierrieks, Daniel; Pañeda-Fernández, Irene |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of climate conditions in shaping return migration intentions among international migrants. Using original survey data of over 1, 000 first-generation migrants from West Africa living in Germany, we correlate observational data on temperature increases in the respondents' home regions in West Africa to their return migration intentions. Moreover, by means of a survey experiment, we investigate how informational cues about climate disasters in the migrants' origin countries might influence their desire to return home. We find that observed climate change in the form of warming does not affect return migration intentions, and neither do informational cues about climate risks that are provided in the survey experiment. Moreover, we find that differences in migrants' socioeconomic status, education or attachment to their home countries do not moderate the influence of climate change and disasters on return intentions. By contrast, in the survey experiment economic factors are found to play a decisive role: migrants are more inclined to return if job prospects in their home country improve, whereas favorable employment in Germany reduces return intentions. This latter finding provides some evidence that economic motivations rather than environmental concerns prominently shape return migration decisions. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht die Rolle klimatischer Bedingungen bei der Entstehung von Rückkehrabsichten internationaler Migrant*innen. Anhand originärer Umfragedaten von über 1.000 Migrant*innen der ersten Generation aus Westafrika, die in Deutschland leben, korrelieren wir Beobachtungsdaten zu Temperaturanstiegen in den Herkunftsregionen in Westafrika mit den Rückkehrabsichten der Befragten. Zudem untersuchen wir mittels eines Umfrageexperiments, wie Informationshinweise zu Klimakatastrophen in den Herkunftsländern der Migrant*innen deren Wunsch zur Rückkehr beeinflussen könnten. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der beobachtete Klimawandel in Form von Erwärmung keinen Einfluss auf die Rückkehrabsichten hat - ebenso wenig wie die im Experiment gegebenen Hinweise auf Klimarisiken. Auch Unterschiede im sozioökonomischen Status, Bildungsniveau oder der Bindung an das Herkunftsland der Migrant*innen beeinflussen den Zusammenhang zwischen Klimawandel bzw. Katastrophen und Rückkehrabsichten nicht. Im Gegensatz dazu spielen im Umfrageexperiment ökonomische Faktoren eine entscheidende Rolle: Migrant*innen zeigen eine höhere Rückkehrbereitschaft, wenn sich die Berufsaussichten im Herkunftsland verbessern, während günstige Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten in Deutschland die Rückkehrabsicht verringern. Letzteres deutet darauf hin, dass ökonomische Motive - und nicht Umweltaspekte - maßgeblich die Entscheidung zur Rückkehrmigration prägen. |
| Keywords: | Rückwanderung, Klimawandel, Klimakatastrophen, Umfrageexperiment, Deutschland, Westafrika, return migration, climate change, climate disasters, survey experiment, Germany, West Africa |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:318376 |
| By: | Bailey, Megan (University of Calgary); Brown, David P. (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Shaffer, Blake (University of Calgary); Wolak, Frank A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | As electricity systems transition toward more variable renewable energy, flexible demand has emerged as a critical tool for grid management. Yet a fundamental question remains: are emerging smart technologies sufficient to unlock demand response, or does human behavior remain the critical barrier? Our field experiment examines this question through a novel approach that individually randomizes peak event timing for each participating household, allowing us to leverage both within-subject and between-subject variation. We compare the response to “peak events” on electricity consumption for households equipped with three distinct demand response programs: a fully automated system requiring no action; app-enabled smart devices requiring minimal effort; and traditional manual adjustments. The results are striking—households with passive, automated responses reduced consumption five times more than those required to take any action at all, even when the burden is greatly reduced via smart technology. The provision of enabling technologies alone made no difference in households’ responsiveness, as compared to a fully manual setting, when active participation was still required. These findings reveal that the opportunity cost of time and effort —not technology limitations—may be the fundamental obstacle to unlocking electricity demand flexibility. To achieve its full potential, “smart home” technologies need to incorporate these behavioral realities as barriers to responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | electricity |
| JEL: | A00 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2025_004 |
| By: | Thomas Graeber (Harvard Business School); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, CEPR, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, & Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Marco Sammon (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | Real-world news environments comprise both granular quantitative information and coarse categorizations. For instance, company earnings are reported as a dollar figure alongside categorizations, such as whether earnings beat or missed market expectations. When processing capacity is limited, these components may compete for attention. We study the hypothesis that more severe processing constraints increase the relative reliance on coarser signals: people still discriminate between categories but distinguish less granularly within them, creating higher sensitivity around category thresholds but lower sensitivity elsewhere. Using stock market reactions to earnings announcements as our empirical setting, we document that hard-to-value stocks are associated with a more pronounced S-shaped response pattern around category thresholds. Naturalistic experiments that exogenously manipulate processing constraints provide supporting causal evidence in individual investor behavior. We then study two determinants of processing constraints in the field. First, more common sizes of surprise may be processed more precisely. Indeed, regions with more historical mass exhibit far higher return sensitivity. Second, a surprise about the category realization may capture attention, leaving less capacity to process the numerical signal. We find that category surprises, e.g., a profit when a loss was expected, are associated with diminished sensitivity to numerical earnings information. |
| Keywords: | Categories, Numbers, Processing Constraints, Earnings News |
| JEL: | D01 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:364 |
| By: | Megan R. Bailey; David P. Brown; Blake C. Shaffer; Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | As electricity systems transition toward more variable renewable energy, flexible demand has emerged as a critical tool for grid management. Yet a fundamental question remains: are emerging smart technologies sufficient to unlock demand response, or does human behavior remain the critical barrier? Our field experiment examines this question through a novel approach that individually randomizes peak event timing for each participating household, allowing us to leverage both within-subject and between-subject variation. We compare the response to “peak events” on electricity consumption for households equipped with three distinct demand response programs: a fully automated system requiring no action; app-enabled smart devices requiring minimal effort; and traditional manual adjustments. The results are striking—households with passive, automated responses reduced consumption five times more than those required to take any action at all, even when the burden is greatly reduced via smart technology. The provision of enabling technologies alone made no difference in households’ responsiveness, as compared to a fully manual setting, when active participation was still required. These findings reveal that the opportunity cost of time and effort—not technology limitations—may be the fundamental obstacle to unlocking electricity demand flexibility. To achieve its full potential, “smart home” technologies need to incorporate these behavioral realities as barriers to responsiveness. |
| JEL: | L94 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33836 |
| By: | Leight, Jessica; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Hirvonen, Kalle; Rakshit, Deboleena |
| Abstract: | Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world, and severe poverty, ongoing armed conflict, and recurring droughts and floods have created a humanitarian crisis characterized by a high level of inter nal displacement. Baidoa city—the site of this evaluation—hosts 517 sites for internally displaced per sons (IDP), with almost 600, 000 households, and 64 percent of the individuals living in these sites are women and girls. According to the second Somali High Frequency Survey (Pape and Karamba 2019), IDP settlements (along with rural areas) face a particularly high level of poverty, exacerbated by high unemployment rates and the absence of income-generating opportunities. This brief reports on endline findings from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the project Building Pathways Out of Poverty for Ultra-poor IDPs and Vulnerable Host Communities in Baidoa, an ultra-poor graduation (UPG) intervention implemented by World Vision and funded by the United States Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA). The project seeks to enable ultra-poor internally displaced households to graduate from extreme poverty and begin the upward trajectory to self-reliance for displacement-affected communities by enabling gender-sensitive, context-appropriate, and sustainable livelihoods in an urban setting. IFPRI is collaborating with World Vision to conduct the trial. |
| Keywords: | poverty; conflicts; natural disasters; displacement; women; unemployment; gender; Somalia; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:168400 |
| By: | Jean-Claude Berthélemy (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Nossek (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Victor Béguerie (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of the Café Lumière project launched by the NGO Électriciens sans frontières to address the lack of reliable electricity access in rural Madagascar. The project integrates solar-powered micro-grids and energy platforms to provide affordable electricity and basic electricity services for households, businesses, and public services. The study employs a randomized control design, with data collected through two waves of household surveys in 2017-2018 and 2023, complemented by locality data. The experimental dimension of the paper is based on a treatment implemented at the locality level. A dozen of comparable localities had been initially selected as suitable after a pre-feasibility study across the Vakinankaratra and Itasy highland regions, and the project has been randomly implemented in only half of them. Findings reveal notable improvements in household access to electricity, particularly in the use of modern energy services like lighting and phone charging. [...] |
| Keywords: | Rural electrification, Randomized controlled trial (RCT), Impact evaluation, Multiservice energy platforms, Electricity access, Renewable energy, Micro-grids, Mini-grids |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05067186 |
| By: | Ahrens, Leo; Bremer, Björn (Central European University); Hakelberg, Lukas (Leuphana University of Lüneburg) |
| Abstract: | Carbon inequality implies that wealthy individuals contribute more to climate change than asset-poor indi-viduals, which is primarily driven by higher levels of consumption and investment in carbon-intensive in-dustries. Yet the prevailing policy response—the carbon tax—is regressive, as it places a higher relative bur-den on low-income than on high-income households. It is therefore politically unpopular, given that percep-tions of distributional fairness strongly shape public support for climate policies. We conduct two comple-mentary survey experiments to examine preferences over a recent policy proposal developed in response to accumulating evidence of carbon inequality: wealth taxation to finance the green transition. Using a ran-domized controlled trial, we find that while baseline support for wealth taxation is high among respondents in Germany, exposing them to a compensatory argument emphasizing carbon inequality does not further increase this support. However, emphasizing carbon inequality increases support for using wealth tax reve-nues to finance the green transition, making this the most popular option for using the revenue. A conjoint survey experiment further demonstrates that spending wealth tax revenue on public investment in transport infrastructure, subsidies for private investment in low-carbon technologies, and redistributive measures such as a lump-sum payment to all households paying carbon taxes receives the highest support among German respondents. In contrast, subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles and investment in geo-engineering are highly unpopular. These findings suggest that invoking carbon inequality can help build democratic majorities for using wealth taxation to finance investment in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Hence, there is a path towards lower emissions and greater climate resilience that is unlikely to produce popular backlash. |
| Date: | 2025–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h6rxc_v1 |
| By: | Dujeancourt, Erwan; Foliano, Francesca; Hammar, Olle |
| Abstract: | Fehr, Mollerstrom and Perez-Truglia (2022) studied individual preferences for policies addressing global inequality by conducting a two-year, face-to-face survey experiment on a representative sample of Germans from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). They found that Germans systematically underestimated their true place in the global income distribution; that these misperceptions were persistent; and that correcting those misperceptions did not affect their support for polices related to global inequality (while information provision about national relative income affected demand for national redistribution, but only for left-of-center respondents). In this replication report, we present the results from a computational reproduction and robustness replication of Fehr et al. (2022). While direct access to the SOEP microdata is restricted, we were able to obtain access for these reproduction and replication purposes. We confirm that the original study is computationally reproducible and that the main results are generally robust to the following alterations: controlling for political left instead of party; using an extended set of control variables; and dropping observations with missing values. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:228 |
| By: | Deparade, Darius; Jarmolinski, Lennart; Mohr, Peter |
| Abstract: | Tax evasion is associated with high social and fiscal costs. To address these, many governments employ behavioral interventions given their low implementation costs and high potential efficiency. Although many studies report positive effects of behavioral interventions to combat tax evasion, the effect sizes are often quite small. This may result from the partial cancellation of heterogeneous effects and prompts calls in the literature for individualized or group-tailored interventions. While classification approaches for taxpayer types exist, their practical implementation is limited by data availability. We systematically review 144 studies conducted between 1996 and 2024 and show that group-tailored interventions along key inequality dimensions-gender, income, age, and regionality-may not only enhance tax compliance but also help address inequality. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analysis shows that intervention effectiveness can be enhanced by the incorporation of specific characteristics related to framing, intervention frequency, and communication channels. Finally, we present a theoretical model to support group-tailored interventions and thus provide policymakers with an efficient strategy to combat tax evasion. |
| Keywords: | Tax Compliance, Behavioral Intervention, Heterogeneity, Inequality |
| JEL: | H26 D31 D90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:318371 |
| By: | Ranim Assi; Zacharias Maniadis; Sotiris Georganas |
| Abstract: | Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation play a key role in understanding household consumption and investment decisions as well as the impact of monetary policies. Evidence from countries with low or moderate inflation shows that people’s perception of inflation often diverges significantly and systematically from official inflation rates. We examine the relationship between actual and perceived inflation in a hyperinflation environment. Our experimental results show that, opposite to low inflation, hyperinflation is greatly underestimated in people’s perceptions. Moreover the accuracy of inflation perceptions, as inflation rises, exhibits an inverse-U shape, which confirms our novel, preregistered “perception accuracy inversion hypothesis”. |
| Keywords: | inflation, hyperinflation, expectations |
| JEL: | E7 C9 |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:01-2025 |