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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela (University of Innsbruck); Sutter, Matthias (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Zoller, Claudia (Management Center Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | Efficient coordination is a major source of efficiency gains. We study in an experimental coordination game with 718 children and teenagers, aged 9 to 18 years, the strategies played in pre-adulthood. We find no robust age effects in the aggregate, but see that smaller group sizes and larger incentives increase the likelihood of choosing the efficient strategy. Beliefs play an important role as well, as subjects are more likely to play the efficient strategy when they expect others to do so as well. Our results are robust to controlling for individual risk-, time-, and social preferences. |
| Keywords: | coordination game, age, group size, incentives, children, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17519 |
| By: | Castillo, Marco (Texas A&M University); Linardi, Sera (University of Pittsburgh); Petrie, Ragan (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | Many previously incarcerated individuals are rearrested following release from prison. We investigate whether encouragement to use reentry support services reduces rearrest. Field experiment participants are offered a monetary incentive to complete different dosages of visits, either three or five, to a support service provider. The incentive groups increased visits, and one extra visit reduces rearrests three years after study enrollment by six percentage points. The results are driven by Black participants who are more likely to take up treatment and benefit the most from visits. The study speaks to the importance of considering first-stage heterogeneity and heterogeneous treatment effects. |
| Keywords: | recidivism, reentry support services, dosage effects, field experiment |
| JEL: | K42 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17522 |
| By: | Arnab K. Basu; Nancy H. Chau; Anustup Kundu; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | Economic theory predicts that dishonesty thrives in secrecy. Yet, team-based decisions are ubiquitous in public policy-making. How does teamwork influence the tendency for self-dealings when public servants—both honest and corrupt—must work together to make decisions under the veil of within-group secrecy? This paper designs a field experiment guided by a theoretical model of team-level dishonesty, where we define and unpack the drivers of the dishonesty concessions that individuals make in a team setting as a cooperative bargain between team players. |
| Keywords: | Dishonest behaviour, Peer effect, Bargaining, Local government |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-87 |
| By: | Marco Castillo; Sera Linardi; Ragan Petrie |
| Abstract: | Many previously incarcerated individuals are rearrested following release from prison. We investigate whether encouragement to use reentry support services reduces rearrest. Field experiment participants are offered a monetary incentive to complete different dosages of visits, either three or five, to a support service provider. The incentive groups increased visits, and one extra visit reduces rearrests three years after study enrollment by six percentage points. The results are driven by Black participants who are more likely to take up treatment and benefit the most from visits. The study speaks to the importance of considering first-stage heterogeneity and heterogeneous treatment effects. |
| Keywords: | recidivism, reentry support services, dosage effects, field experiment |
| JEL: | K42 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11554 |
| By: | Prashant Loyalka; Dinsha Mistree; Robert Fairlie; Saurabh Khanna; Robert W. Fairlie |
| Abstract: | Low-income individuals in developing countries are often inadequately prepared for employment because they lack key labor market skills. We explore how employability and wage outcomes are related to English language skills in a novel, large-scale randomized field experiment conducted in Delhi, India involving 1, 260 low-income individuals. Experimental estimates indicate that a job training program that emphasizes English language skills training substantially increases English language skills as well as employability and estimated wages (as assessed by hiring managers through interviews) for regular jobs and employability for jobs that specifically require English language skills. Program effects hold regardless of gender, social class, or prior employment. We furthermore find that participants enjoy improved employability and estimated wage outcomes because the program improves their English language skills. Taken together, our results suggest that English language skills training, which is surprisingly underutilized in developing countries, may provide considerable economic opportunities for individuals from low-income backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | English, employability, opportunities, poverty reduction, field experiment |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11504 |
| By: | Marcel Fafchamps; Asadul Islam; Debayan Pakrashi; Denni Tommasi |
| Abstract: | We conduct a clustered randomized controlled trial across 180 villages in Uttar Pradesh, India, to promote the take-up of a savings commitment product newly introduced to our study population. A random subset of participants was targeted through our promotional campaign to test whether the product's diffusion among untargeted participants operates primarily through information sharing or through persuasion by incentivized target participants. If social learning is the main channel of diffusion, we would expect higher sign-up and take-up rates in information villages compared to persuasion villages. Conversely, if persuasion is the primary channel, sign-up and take-up rates should be higher in persuasion villages. Our findings consistently favor the persuasion channel, as sign-up and take-up rates were higher in the persuasion treatment, even without increased financial literacy or knowledge about the product. Information alone had a negligible impact on take-up, while the combined treatment achieved the highest sign-up and conversion rates, suggesting that information complements persuasion by enhancing its effectiveness. These results highlight the importance of incentivized persuasion in promoting product take-up and suggest that, in certain contexts, direct information-sharing may be less effective than previously assumed. |
| JEL: | D14 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33285 |
| By: | Philipp Doerrenberg; Christoph Feldhaus; Felix Kölle; Axel Ockenfels |
| Abstract: | Using a series of controlled laboratory experiments involving decisions to intervene in others’ choice opportunities; we find that groups grant more autonomy to others than individuals. This finding is robust across two decision contexts, one involving individual decision-making (Internality) and one involving social decision-making (Externality). Analyses of the group chat logs and two additional experiments show that participants tend to shy away from proposing interventions in social contexts, even when they intervene individually. We conclude that interventions differ systematically between individual and social contexts, and that transferring decision-making power to groups can lead to a “liberal shift”. |
| Keywords: | teams, decision making, autonomy, interventions, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D70 D91 M21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11575 |
| By: | Henning Hermes (ifo Institute Munich); Marina Krauß (University of Augsburg); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies); Simon Wiederhold (University of Halle) |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence that enabling access to universal early child care increases maternal labor supply and promotes gender equality among families with lower socioeconomic status (SES). Our intervention offers information and customized help with child care applications, leading to a boost in child care enrollment among lower-SES families. 18 months after the intervention, we find substantial increases in maternal full-time employment (+160%), maternal earnings (+22%), and household income (+10%). Intriguingly, the positive employment effects are not only driven by extended hours at child care centers, but also by an increase in care hours by fathers. Gender equality also benefits more broadly from better access to child care: The treatment improves a gender equality index that combines information on intra-household division of working hours, care hours, and earnings by 40% of a standard deviation, with significant increases in each dimension. For higher-SES families, we consistently observe negligible, insignificant treatment effects. |
| Keywords: | maternal employment |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-023 |
| By: | Henning Hermes; Marina Krauß; Philipp Lergetporer; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11572 |
| By: | Basistha, Ahana (Indian Statistical Institute); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Sherif, Raisa (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance) |
| Abstract: | Urban waste management challenges pose significant health and economic consequences. Although source-level waste segregation offers a promising solution, its success depends on household participation. Through a randomized controlled trial in the capital city of Bihar, India, we evaluate how light-touch messaging interventions influence household waste management practices. Our results reveal a stark behavioral disconnect: while interventions increased financial contributions to waste segregation initiativesby 9.6 - 11.7 percent compared to the control group, they failed to improve actual waste segregation practices. This gap between financial support and behavioral change highlights the complexity of promoting sustainable waste management practices in urban households. |
| Keywords: | willingness to contribute, household waste management, religious messaging, civic messaging, waste segregation, field experiment, India |
| JEL: | D01 D91 C93 Q53 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17508 |
| By: | Powdthavee, Nattavudh (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Riyanto, Yohanes E. (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Zhang, Xiaojie (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether complete transparency about the randomness of prediction-generating processes mitigates the hot hand fallacy and the conditions under which it may fail. In a pre-registered laboratory experiment (N=750), we showed that transparency about the prediction-generating processes reduced individuals' belief in the hot hand of fair coin flip predictions. However, this effect significantly weakened when we shifted from paying to donating for predictions. Participants exposed to streaks of accurate predictions under altruistic framing were more inclined to donate despite knowing the randomness involved. We explore underlying mechanisms and discuss implications for decision-making in economics and finance. |
| Keywords: | gambler's fallacy, hot hand, full information, altruism, random streaks, karmic investment |
| JEL: | C91 D03 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17484 |
| By: | Henning Hermes (ifo Institute Munich); Marina Krauß (University of Augsburg); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies); Simon Wiederhold (University of Halle) |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-024 |
| By: | Guglielmo Briscese; John A. List |
| Abstract: | Field experiments provide the clearest window into the true impact of many policies, allowing us to understand what works, what does not, and why. Yet, their widespread use has not been accompanied by a deep understanding of the political economy of their adoption in policy circles. This study begins with a large-scale natural field experiment that demonstrates the ineffectiveness of a widely implemented intervention. We leverage this result to understand how policymakers and a representative sample of the U.S. population update their beliefs of not only the policy itself, but the use of science and the trust they have in government. Policymakers, initially overly optimistic about the program’s effectiveness, adjust their views based on evidence but show reduced demand for experimentation, suggesting experiment aversion when results defy expectations. Among the U.S. public, support for policy experiments is high and remains robust despite receiving disappointing results, though trust in the implementing institutions declines, particularly in terms of perceptions of competence and integrity. Providing additional information on the value of learning from unexpected findings partially mitigates this trust loss. These insights, from both the demand and supply side, reveal the complexities of managing policymakers’ expectations and underscore the potential returns to educating the public on the value of open-mindedness in policy experimentation. |
| JEL: | C9 C93 H4 H41 O12 O36 P1 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33239 |
| By: | Hermes, Henning (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Krauß, Marina (University of Augsburg); Lergetporer, Philipp (Technical University of Munich); Peter, Frauke (DZHW-German Centre for Research on Higher Education and Science Studies); Wiederhold, Simon (IWH Halle) |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers' perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers' own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers' future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17543 |
| By: | Gaul, Johannes J. (ZEW); Keusch, Florian (University of Mannheim); Rostam-Afschar, Davud (University of Mannheim); Simon, Thomas (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how elements of a survey invitation message targeted to businesses influence their participation in a self-administered web survey. We implement a full factorial experiment varying five key components of the email invitation. Unlike traditional experimental setups with static group composition, however, we employ adaptive randomization in our sequential research design. Specifically, as the experiment progresses, a Bayesian learning algorithm assigns more observations to invitation messages with higher starting rates. Our results indicate that personalizing the message, emphasizing the authority of the sender, and pleading for help increase survey starting rates, while stressing strict privacy policies and changing the location of the survey URL have no response-enhancing effect. The implementation of adaptive randomization is useful for other applications of survey design and methodology. |
| Keywords: | adaptive randomization, reinforcement learning, nonresponse, email invitation, web survey, firm survey, organizational survey |
| JEL: | C11 C44 C93 D83 M00 M40 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17534 |
| By: | Sirianne Dahlum; Torbjørn Hanson; Åshild Johnsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Alexander Wuttke; Åshild A. Johnsen |
| Abstract: | The increasing popularity of strongman rule in democratic societies underscores the need to explore how authoritarian regime preferences might spread socially. We assess the role of social influence on support for leaders with authoritarian inclinations through pre-registered field and survey experiments in the Norwegian Armed Forces. The field experiment randomly assigned soldiers to different rooms during boot camp, so soldiers lived among peers with varying levels of openness to authoritarian rule. We found that many individuals adjusted their privately reported support for authoritarian rule to align more closely with their peers. Further survey-experimental evidence among soldiers and the general Norwegian population confirms that learning about others’ level of support for authoritarian rule changes both perceptions about the preferences of others’ and own attitudes. Our results suggest that support for authoritarian rule can have a social basis and could potentially spread through social contagion in established democracies. |
| JEL: | D72 P00 J01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11490 |
| By: | Hennig Hermes (ifo Institute); Marina Krauß (University of Augsburg); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Campus Heilbronn & ifo Institute); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies (DZHW)); Simon Wiederhold (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), MLU Halle-Wittenberg & ifo Institute & Hoover Institution, Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:38 |
| By: | Beck, Dominik |
| Abstract: | I construct a continuous-time market entry game to experimentally investigate whether continuous-time interaction increases the incumbent’s reputation compared to discrete-time interaction. In the model, entrants can build capacity up to a certain threshold in order to enter the market, while the incumbent can deter entry to influence the entrant’s decision. In continuous time, players can adjust their actions at any moment, whereas in discrete time, actions are limited to a few simultaneous moves. In the experiment, both games are repeated five times in a row with a fixed incumbent and changing entrants. Through the transmission of distinct information among subsequent entrants, the incumbent is able to build reputation throughout the game. In continuous time, the incumbent achieves a significantly higher reputation. Moreover, when considering reputation in a round-based view, it becomes evident that reputation reaches a high level already in the first round, whereas in discrete time, it takes about three rounds to develop. These insights can be attributed to enhanced information transfer in continuous time. Through frequent and endogenous action changes, the incumbent is able to send more and clearer entry-deterring signals. |
| Keywords: | continuous-time game, reputation building, market entry, Chain Store Game, entry deterrence, laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C72 C92 L10 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122772 |
| By: | Giese, Helge (University of Konstanz); Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Kuss, Oliver; Wegwarth, Odette Ph.D. (Max Planck Institute for Human Development) |
| Abstract: | Background: Medical RCT effectiveness communication often does not fully acknowledge the temporal dimension of the trial and its impact on RCT understanding in general practitioners is unclear. The authors therefore tested how trial effectiveness information given as hazard ratio (HR), prolongated failure times (PFT), restricted mean survival times (RMST), or absolute risk reductions (ARR) affected the understanding and acceptance of the treatment effectiveness in medical general practitioners. Methods: In 2024, 250 German general practitioners completed an online experiment comparing the four different effectiveness communication formats in a within design and testing the role of an absolute reference between participants. Target outcomes were whether the group could replicate the rank order of effect sizes presented to them in a between design and their acceptance rating. Results: General practitioners did not replicate the effect size order. The same effect in the RMST format was judged less effective but more acceptable compared to the presentation in the other formats. The reference did not play a role in the evaluation of the communication. Conclusions: While general practitioners generally preferred the mean survival time format, there was no intuitive representation of effect sizes in any of the formats. The provision of further normative information in addition to the effect size on the absolute time scale may aid them to rank the effectiveness of treatments. |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:py9rc |
| By: | Nicolas Ajzenman; Guillermo Cruces; Ricardo Perez-Truglia; Darío Tortarolo; Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of a progressive tax reform on tax compliance. We leverage a major progressive tax reform in a large Argentine municipality. First, we use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of changes in a household's own tax rates on its tax compliance. Second, we utilize a large-scale natural field experiment to examine whether, holding a household's own tax rates constant, tax compliance is influenced by the tax rates of poorer or richer households. We find that reducing taxes for poorer households increases their compliance, while increasing taxes for richer households decreases their compliance. When poor households learn about the tax hike on the rich, this increases their perceived fairness of the tax system and their tax compliance. When rich households learn about the tax cuts for the poor, their perceived fairness increases significantly, but their compliance, if anything, goes down. Leveraging another reform (and another field experiment) that took place a year later, we show that both the quasi-experimental and experimental findings replicate. Our evidence highlights that tax compliance depends not only on a household's own tax rate but also on its perception of the broader tax schedule. Our findings also highlight the gap between stated and revealed preferences for redistribution. Lastly, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to illustrate the implications of our findings for the design of tax policies. |
| JEL: | C93 D31 H24 H26 H71 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33286 |
| By: | Christoph Feldhaus; Lukas Reinhardt; Matthias Sutter |
| Abstract: | In a democracy, it is essential that citizens accept rules and laws, regardless of which party is in power. We study why citizens in polarized societies resist rules implemented by political opponents. This may be due to the rules’ specific content, but also because of a general preference against being restricted by political opponents. We develop a method to measure the latter channel. In our experiment with almost 1, 300 supporters and opponents of Donald Trump, we show that polarization undermines rule-following behaviour significantly, independent of the rules’ content. Subjects perceive the intentions behind (identical) rules as much more malevolent if they were imposed by a political opponent rather than a political ally. |
| Keywords: | political polarization, social identity, outgroup, economic preferences, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11485 |
| By: | Sudarno Sumarto; Elan Satriawan; Benjamin A. Olken; Abhijit Banerjee; Achmad Tohari; Vivi Alatas; Rema Hanna |
| Abstract: | Community-based targeting, in which communities allocate social assistance using local information about who is poor, in experimental settings leads to nuanced allocations that reflect local concepts of poverty. What happens when it is scaled up, by either by making the stakes high, or by replicating the process nationwide? We study this by examining community targeting in both a high-stakes experiment, in which villages determined who would receive the Indonesian conditional cash transfer program – worth almost USD 1, 000 over 6 years – and in a nationwide scaleup, whereby Indonesia used community-based meetings to allocate COVID-transfers to over 8 million households. We find that both the experimental scale-up and the massive national scale-up had broadly similar performance to the original experimental study. We find strongly progressive targeting as measured by baseline household consumption, though – as in the pilot – not quite as strong as if they had used a fully up-to-date proxy means test. In both scale-ups, we also find that the villages gave additional weight to locally-valued characteristics beyond pure consumption, such as widowhood, recent illness, and food expenditure shares, again echoing the findings from pilots. The results suggest that community targeting can perform well at scale, as predicted by the experimental study. |
| JEL: | I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33322 |
| By: | O.Szabo, Rebeka; Deritei, David; Battiston, Federico |
| Abstract: | Collective intelligence–-the ability of groups to solve diverse problems-–has been explored using laboratory experiments, computer simulations, and questionnaires. These instruments, however, suffer from limitations, such as external validity in the case of laboratory experiments and self-reporting bias in the case of questionnaires. Here we investigate the exploration-exploitation dynamics of small teams using high-frequency, observational data from escape rooms: a non-interventional yet controlled environment where naturally occurring teams solve connected sequences of exploration and exploitation tasks. We find that more effective teams tend to coordinate throughout problem-solving, exhibit balanced communication patterns, and maintain a dynamic alternation between exploration and exploitation tasks. In contrast, members of less effective teams often work in isolation, participate in problem-solving unequally, and lacking the capacity to exploit information efficiently. Moreover, we show that the effect of collaborative behavior depends on the task: exploitation benefits from team-wide communication and dominance of key members, while exploration requires balanced participation. Additionally, positive exchanges accelerate the compilation of exploitation tasks while negative communication decelerates them. These findings expand the external validity of experimental work on collective intelligence to an organic non-interventional setting and highlight the importance of understanding team performance through behavior instead of team demographics. |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4rwpd |
| By: | Jafarli, Farid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationships of prediction time and confidence levels with prediction errors in light of interpersonal projection bias. Systematic prediction errors are frequently caused by projection bias, a cognitive distortion in which people project their current preferences or attitudes onto others. Even though interpersonal projection bias has been well studied in the past, the impacts of task duration, confidence level and instructional guidance on such prediction errors still need to be sufficiently explored. By examining whether these factors affect the size of prediction errors, this study aims to close that gap. The primary goal is to present empirical evidence for how participants’ such characteristics shape their prediction accuracy, building on the framework of Benjamin Bushong and Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch’s seminal work ”Failures in Forecasting: An Experiment on Interpersonal Projection Bias.” The findings show that overconfidence bolsters the prediction error while no remarkable impact is observed by prediction time and instructional guidance. |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qrk73 |
| By: | Abel, Martin (Bowdoin College); Bomfim, Emma (Bowdoin College); Cisneros, Izzy (Bowdoin College); Coyle, Jackson (Bowdoin College); Eraou, Song (Bowdoin College); Gebeyehu, Martha (Bowdoin College); Hernandez, Gerardo (Bowdoin College); Juantorena, Julian (Bowdoin College); Kaplan, Lizzy (Bowdoin College); Marquez, Danielle (Bowdoin College); Mullen, Jack (Bowdoin College); Mulhern, Peyton (Bowdoin College); Opong-Nyantekyi, Ayana (Bowdoin College); Osathanugrah, Rin (Bowdoin College); Paul, Joe (Bowdoin College); Philie, Austin (Bowdoin College); Tingley, Luke (Bowdoin College); Wang, Jingyi (Bowdoin College) |
| Abstract: | We conduct an incentivized experiment with a nationally representative sample to investigate gender discrimination among people receiving advice on risky investments. Participants learn about actual start-up firms they can invest in. Before deciding how much of their endowment to invest, they receive recommendations from either female or male professionals. We find that before outcomes are revealed, participants are equally likely to follow recommendations of female and male advisors. Likewise, we observe no gender discrimination following advice that proves correct. However, for advice that turns out to be incorrect, advisor gender significantly impacts the decisions made by male participants. They invest 47% less in the direction of this advice compared to situations where male advisors were incorrect. These differences are not explained by participants' stated views on gender roles and advisors' ability as well as the level of attention towards female advisors. |
| Keywords: | gender discrimination, investment decisions, financial advising |
| JEL: | J70 G11 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17537 |
| By: | Bandiera, Antonella (ITAM); , Rojas Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effectiveness of media literacy interventions in combating misinformation among in-transit migrants in Mexico and Colombia. We conducted experiments to study whether an established strategy for fighting misinformation works for this understudied yet particularly vulnerable population. We evaluate the effect of digital media literacy tips on migrants' ability to identify false information and their intentions to share migration-related content. We find that these interventions can effectively decrease migrants' intentions to share misleading migration-related information, with a significantly larger reduction observed for false content than accurate information. We also find that prompting participants to think about accuracy can unintentionally obscure sharing intent by acting as a nudge. Additionally, the interventions decreased trust in social media as an information source while maintaining trust in official sources. The findings suggest that incorporating digital literacy tips into official websites could be a cost-effective strategy to reduce misinformation circulation among migrant populations. |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:md42a |
| By: | Belguise, Margot; Chen, Nora Yuqian; huang, yuchen (Sciences Po Paris); Mo, Zhexun |
| Abstract: | China has experienced a remarkable rise in living standards over four decades of economic reforms, alongside a tremendous increase in inequalities. In this context, do Chinese people support redistribution of wealth gained through reform windfalls? To answer this question, we conducted an online survey experiment with a nationally representative sample from China (N = 2, 000). The treatment group was shown examples of wealth acquired through typical reform-era pathways requiring minimal ability or effort. This exposure led to a 0.1 standard deviation decrease in their support for redistribution. We propose a “reform windfall as redistribution” mechanism to explain this reduction: the treated group perceives the reform era as inherently redistributive, providing opportunities to escape systemic inequalities tied to the political system, thereby reducing the perceived need for formal redistribution. This decline in support is not driven by changes in fairness perceptions, as respondents do not attribute the wealth acquisition scenarios to ability or effort, nor do they view them as distinctly fair or unfair. Furthermore, we find limited evidence of heterogeneity, with one exception: individuals reporting higher economic pressure show an even greater reduction in redistributive support when exposed to the treatment. We hypothesize that this occurs because unmet expectations for upward mobility exacerbate their reactions to the treatment scenarios. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cwv5h |
| By: | Simeon Schudy; Susanna Grundmann; Lisa Spantig |
| Abstract: | Contrary to the traditional economic view that individuals misreport private information to maximize material payoffs, recent evidence highlights robust preferences for truth-telling among many decision-makers. Theoretical models that align with aggregate behavioral patterns posit that these preferences arise from both an intrinsic motivation to be honest and a desire to be perceived as honest. We propose a novel incentivized measure to independently capture these two motives at the individual level for the first time. We validate the measure’s properties experimentally and show that it predicts behavior in other commonly studied situations that allow for (dis)honesty. The measure enables the classification of individual preference types, revealing systematic heterogeneity and fairly stable type distributions across different samples. Additionally, we propose an experimentally validated 2-minute survey module that proxies both motives and predicts behavior in a typical reporting task. Including this module in a large panel, we offer first insights into how early-life experiences may shape preferences for being and being seen as honest. |
| Keywords: | honesty, lying costs, social image concerns, intentions, individual preferences |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D82 D91 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11521 |
| By: | Abel, Martin (Bowdoin College); Robbett, Andrea (Middlebury College); Stone, Daniel F. (Bowdoin College) |
| Abstract: | This study experimentally investigates the role of politics in hiring decisions. Participants acted as employers, determining the highest wage to offer candidates based only on their demographic characteristics, education, and partisanship. We find that both Democratic and Republican participants significantly favor co-partisans, with an out-partisan wage penalty of 7.5%. Discrimination is consistent across tasks that focus respectively on competence, shirking, feedback responsiveness, and voluntary effort, and appears largely driven by biased beliefs about partisan productivity, while affective polarization is also predictive of the out-partisan wage penalty. Discrimination does not increase in a treatment where workers benefit financially from being hired. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, affective polarization, inaccurate beliefs |
| JEL: | J70 D90 C91 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17540 |
| By: | George J. Borjas; Nate Breznau |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers’ policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti- immigration priors received lower “referee scores” from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33274 |
| By: | Vincenzo Galasso; Tomasso Nannicini; Debora Nozza |
| Abstract: | Understanding individuals’ beliefs, preferences, and motivations is essential in social sciences. Recent technological advancements—notably, large language models (LLMs) for analyzing open-ended responses and the diffusion of voice messaging—have the potential to significantly enhance our ability to elicit these dimensions. This study investigates the differences between oral and written responses to open-ended survey questions. Through a series of randomized controlled trials across three surveys (focused on AI, public policy, and international relations), we assigned respondents to answer either by audio or text. Respondents who provided audio answers gave longer, though lexically simpler, responses compared to those who typed. By leveraging LLMs, we evaluated answer informativeness and found that oral responses differ in both quantity and quality, offering more information and containing more personal experiences than written responses. These findings suggest that oral responses to open-ended questions can capture richer, more personal insights, presenting a valuable method for understanding individual reasoning. |
| Keywords: | survey design, open-ended questions, Large Language Models, beliefs |
| JEL: | C83 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11530 |
| By: | Hiroko Okajima (School of Economics, Nagoya University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine how ordinary taxes and earmarked taxes influence tax passthrough in a market experiment. We hypothesize that tax pass-through is lower for earmarked taxes than for ordinary taxes and that this difference depends on market conditions, specifically the balance between the trade surpluses for sellers and buyers. Our findings confirm that ordinary taxes result in full tax pass-through, whereas earmarked taxes result in less pass-through. Under earmarked taxes, sellers adjust the level of pass-through based on their trade surplus relative to the buyers’ trade surplus. These results underscore the need to distinguish between tax types. The results of our study provide novel insights into the resource allocation effects of different tax types, offering significant implications for policymakers seeking to regulate goods with externalities through taxation. |
| Keywords: | ordinary taxes; earmarked taxes; statutory incidence; market experiment |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2410 |
| By: | Galasso, Vincenzo (Bocconi University); Nannicini, Tommaso (European University Institute); Nozza, Debora (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | Understanding individuals' beliefs, preferences, and motivations is essential in social sciences. Recent technological advancements—notably, large language models (LLMs) for analyzing open-ended responses and the diffusion of voice messaging— have the potential to significantly enhance our ability to elicit these dimensions. This study investigates the differences between oral and written responses to open-ended survey questions. Through a series of randomized controlled trials across three surveys (focused on AI, public policy, and international relations), we assigned respondents to answer either by audio or text. Respondents who provided audio answers gave longer, though lexically simpler, responses compared to those who typed. By leveraging LLMs, we evaluated answer informativeness and found that oral responses differ in both quantity and quality, offering more information and containing more personal experiences than written responses. These findings suggest that oral responses to open-ended questions can capture richer, more personal insights, presenting a valuable method for understanding individual reasoning. |
| Keywords: | survey design, open-ended questions, large language models, beliefs |
| JEL: | C83 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17488 |
| By: | Sofia Amaral; Aixa Garcia-Ramos; Selim Gulesci; Sarita Oré; Alejandra Ramos; Maria Micaela Sviatschi; Maria Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | Gender-based violence (GBV) at schools is a pervasive problem that affects millions of adolescent girls worldwide. In partnership with the Ministry of Education in Mozambique, we developed an intervention to increase the capacity of key school personnel to address GBV and to improve students’ awareness as well as proactive behaviors. To understand the role of GBV on girls’ education, we randomized not only exposure to the intervention but also whether the student component was targeted to girls only, boys only, or both. Our findings indicate a reduction in sexual violence by teachers and school staff against girls, regardless of the targeted gender group, providing evidence of the role of improving the capacity of key school personnel to deter perpetrators. Using administrative records, we also find that in schools where the intervention encouraged proactive behavior by girls, there was an increase in their school enrollment, largely due to an increased propensity for GBV reporting by victims. Our findings suggest that effectively mitigating violence to improve girls’ schooling requires a dual approach: deterring potential perpetrators and fostering a proactive stance among victims, such as increased reporting. |
| Keywords: | gender-based violence, schooling |
| JEL: | O12 J16 I25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11506 |
| By: | Nicolas Jacquemet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Launay (CLLE - Cognition, langues, langage, ergonomie - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TMBI - Toulouse Mind & Brain Institut - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse); Stéphane Luchini (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Danica Mijovic-Prelec (MIT Sloan - Sloan School of Management - MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Drazen Prelec (MIT Sloan - Sloan School of Management - MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Jacques Py (CLLE - Cognition, langues, langage, ergonomie - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TMBI - Toulouse Mind & Brain Institut - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse); Julie Rosaz (BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Dijon Bourgogne (ESC)); Jason F. Shogren (UW - University of Wyoming) |
| Abstract: | Eyewitness testimony is the most powerful form of evidence in a court of law. Eyewitnesses affect both the odds of conviction and the severity of sentences of the guilty. But eyewitnesses also lie, and false testimony is the primarily cause of wrongful convictions. Most of the extant literature focuses on eyewitness reliability and credibility assessment, but very little is known about the efficiency of the main mechanism used in-field to foster eyewitness honesty: a solemn truth-telling oath-the most ancient and worldwide institution used in the solemn legal ceremony underpinning criminal cases. Herein we examine how the truth-telling oath actually affects the level of eyewitness deception. Using a controlled experimental test designed to address this question, we show that an eyewitness who is exogenously incentivized to lie and takes a solemn oath is significantly less likely to use deception. In contrast with the related literature focusing on the detection of lies, we show that an oath actually works to improve truth-telling. The oath is not just ceremonial, it plays a key role in improving efficiency within the court. |
| Keywords: | Eye-witness testimony, Truth-telling oath, Controlled experiment |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-04855141 |
| By: | Rila, R.; Mithursan, A.; Samaranayake, D.I.J. |
| Abstract: | The study makes an effort to experiment the effectiveness of green nudges in promoting water conservation and fostering a sustainability mindset in an educational setting. The objective of the study is to explore the potential for fostering a sustainability mindset at the school level by using green nudges to encourage environmentally conscious water conservation behaviors. The methodological application was a field experiment with a post-intervention quantitative analysis, strategically placed visual prompts (stickers) were used to encourage water-saving behavior among students, teachers, and staff. The results show a significant reduction in water wastage, highlighting the impact of green nudges. Regression analysis indicates that responsiveness to green nudges and knowledge of environmental issues are significant predictors of water conservation behavior. The study concludes that tailored, strategically placed nudges can effectively promote sustainable behaviors in schools. These findings offer valuable insights for educators, policymakers, and sustainability practitioners, emphasizing the importance of integrating sustainability education to maintain long-term behavioral changes. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral choices, Green-nudges, Sustainability mindset, Water conservation. |
| JEL: | D71 Q01 Q57 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122767 |
| By: | Carbuccia, Laudine (Sciences Po & Ecole Normale Supérieure); Heim, Arthur; Barone, Carlo; Chevallier, Coralie |
| Abstract: | Access to high-quality early childcare for low socioeconomic status (SES) households has the potential to mitigate socioeconomic inequalities. Yet, there is an SES-based gap in early childcare enrolment. While low-SES households would benefit the most from attending early childcare, they access early childcare the least. This study tackles cognitive and behavioural barriers behind this access gap. We test the effectiveness of informational interventions and personalised support to enhance early childcare application and access for low-SES households through a multi-arm experiment. Results reveal that the information-only treatment had minimal impact while adding personalised support significantly bridged the SES-gap in early childcare applications. However, despite large impacts on application rates, we found limited impacts on access rates for low-SES households. By identifying key obstacles to early childcare access for low-SES households, our research underscores the need for effective strategies to promote equal opportunities in early childhood education. |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w2ey7 |
| By: | Chevalier, Arnaud (Royal Holloway, University of London); Orzech, Jakub (University of London); Stankov, Petar (University of London) |
| Abstract: | Grading and providing feedback are two of the most time-consuming activities in education. We developed a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to test whether they could be performed by generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI). We randomly allocated undergraduate students to feedback provided either by a human instructor, ChatGPT 3.5, or ChatGPT 4. Our results show that: (i) Students treated with the freely accessible ChatGPT 3.5 received lower grades in subsequent assessments than their peers in the control group who always received human feedback; (ii) No such penalty was observed for ChatGPT 4. Separately, we tested the capacity of Gen-AI to grade student work. Gen-AI grades and ranks were significantly different than human-generated grades. Overall, while the newest LLM helps learning as well as a human, its ability to grade student work is still inferior. |
| Keywords: | feeback, grading, Artificial Intelligence, learning with Gen-AI |
| JEL: | A22 C93 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17511 |
| By: | Christian A. Vossler (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Timothy N. Cason; James J. Murphy; Paul J. Ferraro; Todd L. Cherry; George Loewenstein; Peter Martinsson; Jason F. Shogren; Leaf van Boven; Daan van Soest |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the fact that few academic publications document the links between behavioral experiments and public decision making, this paper compiles and describes many studies that were used to inform environmental policy and natural resource management decisions. These experiments informed or changed the designs of emissions trading programs, recreational fishing regulations, conservation auctions, pro-environmental initiatives directed at households, and regulatory enforcement and compliance schemes, and produced nonmarket demand estimates that informed government regulatory analyses. We highlight the context and conditions that produced these experiment-policy links and discuss how researchers can better engage with the policymaking process and increase the impact of experimental research on policy. |
| JEL: | C9 D04 D47 Q28 Q48 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2024-05_1 |
| By: | D'hert, Liam (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | Sustaining social security systems amidst an ageing population requires (re)integrating the unemployed and inactive into work. However, stigma surrounding non-employment history can create barriers to finding a job. Whilst unemployment stigma is well-documented, inactivity stigma remains under the radar. To address whether, why, and when inactivity hinders hiring, we employed a vignette experiment where real-life recruiters rated fictitious applicants with varying non-employment breaks on hireability and productivity. Results reveal employers rank candidates by their reason for being out of work: those with training breaks rank highest, followed by former caregivers, the previously ill and the unemployed, and last, the discouraged. Productivity perceptions match this pattern. Trainees score highest for skills, motivation, cognition, discipline, reliability, flexibility, and trainability. Caregivers excel in perceived social skills but fall short on flexibility. The previously ill are seen as more motivated than the unemployed but likely raise health concerns. The discouraged trigger the harshest stigma, particularly for motivation and self-discipline. Longer lapses hurt hiring chances, but not for training breaks. |
| Keywords: | career break, unemployment, inactivity, hiring chances, factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | C91 E24 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17497 |
| By: | Galkiewicz, Agata (University of Potsdam); Marcus, Jan (Free University of Berlin); Siedler, Thomas (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | To reduce cheating in written tests and exams, assessors often randomly vary the order of questions across students. However, little is known about the potential unintended side effects of question order. This paper examines whether randomizing students to start with an easier or harder question makes a difference to overall assessment performance in incentivized testing situations under time pressure. Using data from more than 8, 000 online tests and exams administered in econometrics and statistics courses at two of Germany's largest universities, we find no evidence that the difficulty of the first question(s) has an effect on overall assessment performance. Our findings are good news for people designing (online) assessments, because randomizing the order of questions can be used as an effective tool to mitigate cheating, but does not affect students' overall performance. |
| Keywords: | education, university students, question order, randomization, e-learning, teaching of economics |
| JEL: | A22 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17479 |
| By: | Silvia Angerer; Helena Antonie Baier; Daniela Glätzle-Rützler; Philipp Lergetporer; Thomas Rittmannsberger |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between economic preferences and COVID-19 vaccination readiness using two representative samples of the German population (N > 5, 000). We elicited altruism, patience, risk-taking and trust using validated survey questions. We find robust, positive relationships between vaccination readiness and both patience and trust. The positive association between altruism and vaccination readiness vanishes when controlling for the other preference dimensions. No consistent effect emerges for risk-taking. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for the interrelated nature of economic preferences when analyzing their impact on field behavior. |
| Keywords: | economic preferences, vaccination, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | C93 D90 I12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11566 |
| By: | Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler; Teresa Steinbacher |
| Abstract: | In this study we explore the knowledge and beliefs regarding behavioral biases among behavioral scientists, financial professionals, and the general population. We investigate knowledge about ten prominent biases and collect beliefs about the knowledge levels of each of these subject pools by conducting an online survey with 547 participants. We find that knowledge about the selected biases is highest among behavioral scientists and lowest in the general population. Potential explanatory variables, such as age, gender, income, and financial literacy, show almost no impact on knowledge levels. Regarding accuracy of beliefs about knowledge of the own and the other groups, each subject pool has the highest accuracy rates for their own group, and behavioral scientists assessing other behavioral scientists have by far the highest accuracy rate. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral biases, expert beliefs, behavioral scientists, financial professionals. |
| JEL: | C91 G40 G53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2024-13 |
| By: | Shearer, Hallee; Rosenblatt, Matthew; Ye, Jean; Jiang, Rongtao; Tejavibulya, Link; Liang, Qinghao; Dadashkarimi, Javid; Westwater, Margaret; Cheng, Iris; Fischbach, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | Effect size estimation is crucial for power analyses and experimental design, but poses unique challenges in fMRI research due to the complexity of the data and analysis techniques. Here, we utilized large fMRI datasets to obtain precise univariate and multivariate effect size estimates from “typical” fMRI study designs: brain-behavior correlation, task vs. rest, and between-group analyses of functional connectivity and task-based activation maps. We provide an interactive web application for exploring these effect maps (neuroprismlab.shinyapps.io/effect_size_shiny). The app is intentionally designed as a growing resource and we welcome contributions from large (n > 500) datasets. |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kryn4 |
| By: | Lindsay C. Page; Katharine E. Meyer; Jeonghyun Lee; Hunter Gehlbach |
| Abstract: | College success requires students to engage with their institution academically and administratively. Missteps with administrative processes can threaten student persistence and success. Through two experimental studies, one exploratory (N=13, 657) and one pre-registered and confirmatory (N=11, 561), we assessed the effectiveness of an artificially intelligent, text-based chatbot that proactively reached out to students to support navigation of administrative processes and use of campus resources. Across two-year and four-year college contexts, outreach was most effective when focused on discrete administrative processes–such as filing financial aid forms and managing registration holds–which were acute and time-sensitive and for which outreach could be targeted to those for whom it was relevant. We situate these experiments in the context of similar efforts targeting college students to formulate testable hypotheses about their effective use for promoting college success. Specifically, we hypothesize that proactive outreach will be most effective when: (1) framed as from a trusted source with whom students would expect to communicate; (2) targeted using data to ensure that communication is relevant to students’ personal circumstances; and (3) focused on well-defined, required, and often acute tasks. |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33257 |
| By: | Angerer, Silvia; Baier, Helena Antonie (University of Munich); Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela (University of Innsbruck); Lergetporer, Philipp (Technical University of Munich); Rittmannsberger, Thomas (Technical University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between economic preferences and COVID-19 vaccination readiness using two representative samples of the German population (N > 5, 000). We elicited altruism, patience, risk-taking and trust using validated survey questions. We find robust, positive relationships between vaccination readiness and both patience and trust. The positive association between altruism and vaccination readiness vanishes when controlling for the other preference dimensions. No consistent effect emerges for risk-taking. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for the interrelated nature of economic preferences when analyzing their impact on field behavior. |
| Keywords: | economic preferences, vaccination, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C93 D90 I12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17533 |
| By: | Michalis Drouvelis; Zeyu Qiu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of induced emotions on leading-by example. Using an online sample of more than 1, 000 participants, we observe behavior in a one-shot sequential voluntary contribution mechanism game where leaders and followers are induced to be either happy or angry. Our findings show that angry leaders contribute less than happy leaders. The same effect is observed when considering followers’ behavior. Crucially, controlling for leaders’ contributions, the mood effects on followers’ behavior disappear, implying that it is sufficient to induce emotions only on leaders in order to affect followers’ behaviour. Our findings further highlight the role of emotions as a causal force, suggesting that negative changes in well-being can bring about adverse effects on team cooperation. |
| Keywords: | induced emotions, anger, happiness, contribution, leading-by-example |
| JEL: | C92 H41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11531 |
| By: | Buskens, Vincent (Utrecht University); Corten, Rense; Przepiorka, Wojtek (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Behavioral experiments are rarely used as an empirical strategy in computational social science, where empirical studies typically focus on analyzing large-scale digital trace data. We argue that behavioral experiments have a role in computational social science, in particular in combination with agent-based modeling – a key theoretical strategy in computational social science. We highlight three ways in which behavioral experiments can contribute to theory building in computational social science: by testing macro-level predictions from agent-based models, by evaluating behavioral assumptions on which these models are based, and by calibrating agent-based models. We illustrate these points through three examples from our work concerned with the emergence of conventions. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9vm5t |
| By: | Lingbo Huang; Jun Zhang |
| Abstract: | Lotteries are commonly employed in school choice to fairly resolve priority ties; however, current practices leave students uninformed about their lottery outcomes when submitting preferences. This paper advocates for revealing lottery results prior to preference submission. When preference lists are constrained in length, revealing lotteries can reduce uncertainties and enable informed decision-making regarding the selection of schools to rank. Through three stylized models, we demonstrate the benefits of lottery revelation in resolving conflicting preferences, equalizing opportunities among students with varying outside options, and alleviating the neighborhood school bias. Our findings are further supported by a laboratory experiment. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.04243 |
| By: | Silvia Angerer (UMIT TIROL - Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology); Helena Antonie Baier (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn Campus); Daniela Glätzle-Rützler (University of Innsbruck); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn Campus); Thomas Rittmansberger (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between economic preferences and COVID-19 vaccination readiness using two representative samples of the German population (N > 5, 000). We elicited altruism, patience, risk-taking and trust using validated survey questions. We find robust, positive relationships between vaccination readiness and both patience and trust. The positive association between altruism and vaccination readiness vanishes when controlling for the other preference dimensions. No consistent effect emerges for risk-taking. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for the interrelated nature of economic preferences when analyzing their impact on field behavior. |
| Keywords: | economic preferences, vaccination, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C93 D90 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:37 |
| By: | Sullivan, Nikki; Breslav, Alexander; Doré, Samyukta; Bachman, Matthew; Huettel, Scott A. |
| Abstract: | Defaults are pervasive in consumer choice. Here, laboratory experiments that used eye tracking were combined with cognitive modeling to pinpoint the influence of defaults in the decision process, along with naturalistic experiments with large pre-registered samples to test the limits of defaults on consumer choices. Contrary to previous assumptions, in simple binary choices, default options did not potentiate rapid heuristic-based decisions but instead altered processes of attention and valuation. Model comparison indicated that defaults received a positive boost in value – a golden halo – that was large enough to increase hedonic choices when the default was hedonic, but had limited effects for utilitarian defaults or for when defaults were incongruent with background goals. The findings illustrate and quantify the mechanisms through which default options shape subsequent decisions in simple choices. Further, boundary conditions for when defaults can and cannot be used to nudge consumer choice are established. |
| Keywords: | choice architecture; default options; eye tracking; case modeling |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126086 |
| By: | Sadettin Haluk Citci (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Using a large administrative dataset containing information for over 39 million private pension contracts and quasi-experimental research design provided by matching contribution policy reform in Turkey, we investigate the effectiveness of nationwide matching contributions in promoting saving outcomes and explore differences in responses to the program among participants. By leveraging two distinct policy changes, we estimate the marginal and net effects of matching contributions on participants’ saving decisions separately. Our differences-in-differences estimations reveal that the matching contribution policy increases contributions paid by 6 percent. Additionally, we analyze the impact of a sharp increase of 30 percent in the match threshold on participants’ contributions paid. Our results suggest that the nationwide matching contribution policy wields a notable yet relatively modest impact on augmenting saving contributions. Notably, we discern substantial variations in the responses to the program among different participant groups. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1712 |
| By: | Tine De Bock; annelies Costers; Simon Hazée |
| Abstract: | E-commerce is flourishing globally, with more and more organizations developing e-commerce applications and opting for pay-what-you-want (PWYW) as an innovative pricing strategy. Although customers behave differently online (compared to offline) and commonly buy tangible products in this context, prior research on PWYW mainly focused either on offline settings or on the distribution of digital music content (i.e., an intangible product). Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine, drawing on signaling theory, the effects of three signaling cues on customer PWYW online payments for tangible products and the mediating effect of trust and risk perceptions. Two-hundred fifty-five adult consumers participated in a 2 (virtual product experience versus no virtual product experience) × 2 (warranty versus no warranty) × 2 (product review versus no product review) between-subjects experiment. The results indicate that offering a product warranty, an online user review, and—to a greater extent—a virtual product experience positively influence customer PWYW online payments for a tangible product. Furthermore, all three signals influence the price that customers want to pay because of enhanced trust regarding the e-vendor rather than reduced risks. The findings provide e-commerce managers with relevant insights to refine their digital strategy, influence customer online trust, and ultimately benefit from PWYW. This research contributes to the literature with an extension of current PWYW research by examining the antecedents of customer PWYW payments for tangible products in an online setting. |
| Keywords: | e-commerce, innovative pricing, participative pricing, Pay-what-you-want, risk, signaling theory, trust |
| Date: | 2023–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:marwps:725819 |
| By: | Thompson, Bethan; Akaichi, Faical; Toma, Luiza |
| Abstract: | Single-use disposable cups are a significant contributor to plastic waste due to their widespread use and limited recyclability. Policymakers worldwide are implementing measures to reduce their consumption and encourage reusable alternatives. This study evaluates the impact of regulatory measures (charges and discounts), persuasion (environmental information prompts), and consumer motivations (using Protection Motivation Theory) on preferences for single-use, refillable, and returnable cups. Using discrete choice experiments with a nationally representative sample, we find that a charge of 25–30 pence is required to reduce single-use cup selection by 50%, whereas a discount of at least 70 pence achieves a similar effect. Information prompts have minimal influence on choices, while environmentally motivated consumer segments demonstrate greater responsiveness to discounts. These findings provide actionable, evidence-based insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, supporting the design of effective interventions to accelerate the transition from single-use to reusable systems. |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e2da7 |
| By: | Ritam Guha; Nilavra Pathak |
| Abstract: | Counterfactual estimators are critical for learning and refining policies using logged data, a process known as Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE). OPE allows researchers to assess new policies without costly experiments, speeding up the evaluation process. Online experimental methods, such as A/B tests, are effective but often slow, thus delaying the policy selection and optimization process. In this work, we explore the application of OPE methods in the context of resource allocation in dynamic auction environments. Given the competitive nature of environments where rapid decision-making is crucial for gaining a competitive edge, the ability to quickly and accurately assess algorithmic performance is essential. By utilizing counterfactual estimators as a preliminary step before conducting A/B tests, we aim to streamline the evaluation process, reduce the time and resources required for experimentation, and enhance confidence in the chosen policies. Our investigation focuses on the feasibility and effectiveness of using these estimators to predict the outcomes of potential resource allocation strategies, evaluate their performance, and facilitate more informed decision-making in policy selection. Motivated by the outcomes of our initial study, we envision an advanced analytics system designed to seamlessly and dynamically assess new resource allocation strategies and policies. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.05278 |
| By: | Polachek, Solomon (Binghamton University, New York); Romano, Kenneth (Binghamton University, New York); Tonguc, Ozlem (State University of New York) |
| Abstract: | Do large language models (LLMs)—such as ChatGPT 3.5, ChatGPT 4.0, and Google's Gemini 1.0 Pro—simulate human behavior in the context of the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game with varying stake sizes? This paper investigates this question, examining how LLMs navigate scenarios where self-interested behavior of all players results in less preferred outcomes, offering insights into how LLMs might "perceive" human decision-making. Through a replication of Yamagishi et al. (2016) "Study 2, " we analyze LLM responses to different payoff stakes and the influence of stake order on cooperation rates. LLMs demonstrate sensitivity to these factors, and some LLMs mirror human behavior only under very specific circumstances, implying the need for cautious application of LLMs in behavioral research. |
| Keywords: | Prisoner's Dilemma, cooperation, payoff stakes, artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | D01 C72 C90 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17521 |