nep-exp New Economics Papers
on Experimental Economics
Issue of 2024‒03‒18
25 papers chosen by

  1. Does Online Fundraising Increase Charitable Giving? A Nationwide Field Experiment on Facebook By Maja Adena; Anselm Hager
  2. The Populist Dynamic: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Countering Populism By Galasso, Vincenzo; Morelli, Massimo; Nannicini, Tommaso; Stanig, Piero
  3. Interactions in a High Immigration Context By Diego Aycinena; Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Javier Torres
  4. Information-Constrained Coordination of Economic Behavior By Guy Aridor; Rava Azeredo da Silveira; Michael Woodford
  5. Beyond Language Proficiency: Understanding the Role of National Identification in Shaping Attitudes toward Immigrants By Akira IGARASHI; Charles CRABTREE; Yoshikuni ONO
  6. From gridlock to polarization By Jacob, Marc S.; Lee, Barton E.; Gratton, Gabriele
  7. On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures By van Cranenburgh, Sander; Meyerhoff, Jürgen; Rehdanz, Katrin; Wunsch, Andrea
  8. Gender Differences in Negotiations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from an Information Intervention with College Students By Patricia Cortés; Jacob French; Jessica Pan; Basit Zafar
  9. Does Information about Inequality and Discrimination in Early Child Care Affect Policy Preferences? By Hennig Hermes; Philipp Lergetporer; Fabian Mierisch; Guido Schwerdt; Simon Wiederhold
  10. The Impact of Insufficient Sleep on the Serial Reproduction of Information By Dickinson, David L.; Drummond, Sean P.A.
  11. Lost in Transmission By Thomas Graeber; Shakked Noy; Christopher Roth; Thomas W. Graeber
  12. Representation and Bracketing in Repeated Games By Mouli Modak
  13. Automatability of occupations, workers’ labor-market expectations, and willingness to train By Philipp Lergetporer; Katharina Wedel; Katharina Werner
  14. Do Women Fare Worse When Men Are Around? Quasi-Experimental Evidence By Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela; Cervini-Plá, María; Ramos, Xavier
  15. GPT's Performance in Identifying Outcome Changes on By Ying, Xiangji; Vorland, Colby J.; Qureshi, Riaz; Brown, Andrew William; Kilicoglu, Halil; Saldanha, Ian; DeVito, Nicholas J; Mayo-Wilson, Evan
  16. Conditional Payments for Democracy to Local Leaders Managing Natural Resources in Rural Namibia By Ivo Steimanis; Esther Blanco; Björn Vollan
  17. Do economic preferences of children predict behavior? By Laura Breitkopf; Shyamal Chowdhury; Shambhavi Priyam; Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch; Matthias Sutter
  18. LLM Voting: Human Choices and AI Collective Decision Making By Joshua C. Yang; Marcin Korecki; Damian Dailisan; Carina I. Hausladen; Dirk Helbing
  19. Socioeconomic Inequality in Life Expectancy: Perception and Policy Demand By Jessen, Lasse J.; Koehne, Sebastian; Nüß, Patrick; Ruhose, Jens
  20. Disaster Aid and Support for Mandatory Insurance: Evidence from a Survey Experiment By Nicola Garbarino; Sascha Möhrle; Florian Neumeier; Marie-Theres von Schickfus
  21. Interference Among First-Price Pacing Equilibria: A Bias and Variance Analysis By Luofeng Liao; Christian Kroer; Sergei Leonenkov; Okke Schrijvers; Liang Shi; Nicolas Stier-Moses; Congshan Zhang
  22. The Essential Role of Altruism in Medical Decision Making By Paul Gertler; Ada Kwan
  23. Collecter des données sur des expériences et attitudes sensibles : le cas du Mali By Olivia Bertelli; Thomas Calvo; Massa Coulibaly; Moussa Coulibaly; Emmanuelle Lavallée; Marion Mercier; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps; O. Z. Traoré
  24. Women Seeking Jobs with Limited Information: Evidence from Iraq By Diego A. Martin
  25. The Potential of Recommender Systems for Directing Job Search: A Large-Scale Experiment By Behaghel, Luc; Dromundo, Sofia; Gurgand, Marc; Hazard, Yagan; Zuber, Thomas

  1. By: Maja Adena (WZB Berlin); Anselm Hager (HU Berlin)
    Abstract: Does online fundraising increase charitable giving? Using the Facebook advertising tool, we implemented a natural field experiment across Germany, randomly assigning almost 8, 000 postal codes to Save the Children fundraising videos or to a pure control. We studied changes in the donation revenue and frequency for Save the Children and other charities by postal code. Our geo-randomized design circumvented many difficulties inherent in studies based on click-through data, especially substitution and measurement issues. We found that (i) video fundraising increased donation revenue and frequency to Save the Children during the campaign and in the subsequent five weeks; (ii) the campaign was profitable for the fundraiser; and (iii) the effects were similar independent of video content and impression assignment strategy. However, we also found some crowding out of donations to other similar charities or projects. Finally, we demonstrated that click data may be an inappropriate proxy for donations and recommend that managers use careful experimental designs that can plausibly evaluate the effects of advertising on relevant outcomes.
    Keywords: charitable giving; field experiments; fundraising; social media; competition;
    JEL: C93 D64 D12
    Date: 2024–02–13
  2. By: Galasso, Vincenzo (Bocconi University); Morelli, Massimo (Bocconi University); Nannicini, Tommaso (European University Institute); Stanig, Piero (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: We evaluate how traditional parties may respond to populist parties on issues aligning with populist messages. During the 2020 Italian referendum on the reduction of members of Parliament, we conducted a large-scale field experiment, exposing 200 municipalities to nearly a million impressions of programmatic advertisement. Our treatments comprised two video ads against the reform: one debunking populist rhetoric and another attributing blame to populist politicians. This anti-populist campaign proved effective through demobilization, as it reduced both turnout and the votes in favor of the reform. Notably, the effects were more pronounced in municipalities with lower rates of college graduates, higher unemployment, and a history of populist votes. This exogenous influence introduced a unique populist dynamic, observable in the 2022 national election where treated municipalities showed increased support for Brothers of Italy, a rising populist party, and decreased support for both traditional parties and the populists behind the 2020 reform. A follow-up survey further showed increased political interest and diminished trust in political institutions among the residents of municipalities targeted by the campaign.
    Keywords: voting, populism, randomized controlled trial
    JEL: D72 C93
    Date: 2024–02
  3. By: Diego Aycinena; Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Javier Torres
    Abstract: Sudden massive migration influxes have been a new driving force of migration increases in recent decades. These types of migration flows present potential challenges to social and economic integration. In this paper we study socioeconomic integration using controlled laboratory experiments in a context of massive inflow of Venezuelan migrants in Peru, where the share of Venezuelan immigrants in the country’s population increased from almost zero in 2016 to 2.5 percent in 2019. Using adult (non-student) native-born Peruvians and Venezuelan immigrants as subjects, we conducted homogeneous (same nationality) and mixed (different nationality) experimental sessions in Lima, to examine interactions that require cooperation, coordination, trust, and reciprocity to achieve a Pareto efficient outcome. We find no evidence of in-group versus out-group (based on nationality) difference in those measures of pro-social behavior. Within this context, we also find no differentials in normative or empirical expectations in behavior of non-nationals relative to those of nationals, and only small to moderate implicit bias. This lack of differential treatment is suggestive of short-run economic integration between immigrants and natives, in a challenging context of massive influxes of migrants.
    Keywords: Immigration, Cooperation, Coordination, Trust, Economic Interactions, Lab Experiments
    Date: 2024–02
  4. By: Guy Aridor; Rava Azeredo da Silveira; Michael Woodford
    Abstract: We analyze a coordination game with information-constrained players. The players’ actions are based on a noisy compressed representation of the game’s payoffs in a particular case, where the compressed representation is a latent state learned by a variational autoencoder (VAE). Our generalized VAE is optimized to trade off the average payoff obtained over a distribution of possible games against a measure of the congruence between the agent’s internal model and the statistics of its environment. We apply our model to the coordination game in the experiment of Frydman and Nunnari (2023), and show that it offers an explanation for two salient features of the experimental evidence: both the relatively continuous variation in the players’ action probabilities with changes in the game payoffs, and the dependence of the degree of stochasticity of players’ choices on the range of game payoffs encountered on different trials. Our approach also provides an account of the way in which play should gradually adjust to a change in the distribution of game payoffs that are encountered, offering an explanation for the history-dependent play documented by Arifovic et al. (2013).
    Keywords: global games, experiments, autoencoder, cognitive noise
    JEL: C45 C63 C73 C92 D91
    Date: 2024
  5. By: Akira IGARASHI (Faculty of Human Sciences, Osaka University); Charles CRABTREE (Department of Government, Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni ONO (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: Many studies argue that intergroup relations between immigrants and natives are influenced by perceptions of cultural distance. They claim that natives tend to favor immigrants who are fluent in the host society’s language, which is operationalized by researchers as a sign of cultural assimilation and identification with the host society. This work assumes that language proficiency is a reasonable manifest indicator of the latent trait of national identification, even though these two concepts, although potentially related, are theoretically distinct. Our study aims to disentangle the relationship between immigrants’ language proficiency and their national identification in the context of the United States. We conducted pre-registered vignette and conjoint experiments to achieve this goal with national samples of 3, 325 and 4, 201, respectively. The results from the vignette experiment indicate that natives exhibit a preference for immigrants who not only possess fluent English skills but also independently strongly identify with the United States. Notably, the effect size for national identification is significantly larger than for language proficiency. These findings are further supported by the results from the conjoint experiment, which incorporates a broader range of immigrant attributes. Our results highlight the interrelated yet distinct nature of national identification and language proficiency. The broader takeaway is that relying solely on language proficiency as a measure of national identification can yield biased results and lead to misleading conclusions. Our findings have implications for the literatures on immigration and for experiments that use language proficiency as an experimental treatment.
    Keywords: immigrants; national identification; language proficiency; survey experiments
    Date: 2024–03
  6. By: Jacob, Marc S.; Lee, Barton E.; Gratton, Gabriele
    Abstract: We propose a mechanism linking legislative gridlock to voters' support for candidates who hold extreme policy positions. Moderate voters rationally discount extreme policy proposals from co-partisans on gridlocked policy issues because on these issues policy change is unlikely. We test our mechanism in a large-scale online experiment in which we randomly vary subjects' perceptions of gridlock and measure subjects' support for co-partisan candidates in candidate-choice tasks. We verify that greater perception of gridlock on a specific issue increases moderate subjects' propensity to vote for extreme co-partisan candidates on the gridlocked issue. We show that our experimental evidence is consistent with our mechanism and that other mechanisms are less likely to underlie our main result. Our theory offers a causal connection from gridlock to elite polarization that may inform further empirical work and suggests a novel tradeoff between elite polarization and policy stability in constitutional design.
    Date: 2024
  7. By: van Cranenburgh, Sander; Meyerhoff, Jürgen; Rehdanz, Katrin; Wunsch, Andrea
    Abstract: Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change.
    Keywords: Coastal adaptation, Climate change, Experimental design theory, Decision rules, Random regret minimisation
    Date: 2024
  8. By: Patricia Cortés; Jacob French; Jessica Pan; Basit Zafar
    Abstract: We assess the role of information gaps in understanding gender differences in negotiation behavior by conducting a randomized information experiment on the 2018 to 2020 graduating cohorts of undergraduate business majors from Boston University. Prior to starting their job search, treated students were provided with objective information about the gender gap in negotiation among their peers along with the earnings changes conditional on negotiating. We find sizable immediate effects on negotiation intentions that persist to actual negotiation behavior, particularly for men. While the treatment affects women's negotiation behavior through belief-updating, the effects on men's behavior are primarily through increased salience of the information. Further, we find some evidence that gender-specific treatment spillovers likely contribute to the smaller average treatment effects on behavior for women. Overall, our findings suggest that such information interventions can help to nudge women who have potentially large financial returns to negotiation to realize these gains.
    JEL: J16 J31
    Date: 2024–02
  9. By: Hennig Hermes (ifo Institute); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn & ifo Institute); Fabian Mierisch (Catholic University Eichstaett-Ingolstadt); Guido Schwerdt (University of Konstanz); Simon Wiederhold (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), MLU Halle-Wittenberg & ifo Institute)
    Abstract: We investigate public preferences for equity-enhancing policies in access to early child care, using a survey experiment with a representative sample of the German population (n ≈ 4, 800). We observe strong misperceptions about migrant-native inequalities in early child care that vary by respondents’ age and right-wing voting preferences. Randomly providing information about the actual extent of inequalities has a nuanced impact on the support for equity-enhancing policy reforms: it increases support for respondents who initially underestimated these inequalities, and tends to decrease support for those who initially overestimated them. This asymmetric effect leads to a more consensual policy view, substantially decreasing the polarization in policy support between under- and overestimators. Our results suggest that correcting misperceptions can align public policy preferences, potentially leading to less polarized debates about how to address inequalities and discrimination.
    Keywords: child care, policy support, information, inequality, discrimination, survey experiment
    JEL: I24 J18 J13 D83 C99
    Date: 2024–01
  10. By: Dickinson, David L. (Appalachian State University); Drummond, Sean P.A. (Monash University)
    Abstract: Story telling is part of life, and the retelling of stories is an important form of communication, cultural practice, and message transmission. Insufficient sleep is known to affect relevant cognitive skill areas necessary for story retelling or transmission fidelity. We conducted a preregistered study on n=118 young adults who were administered a week each of restricted and well-rested sleep levels in their home environment (37 additional control participants were well-rested both treatment weeks). A serial story reproduction task was administered online, and the content of story retells was examined regarding the preservation of characters, details, and the key story event. Chains of up to 3 retells of a given story were examined, which involved varied numbers of sleep restricted (SR) versus well-rested (WR) retellers. While all retells of a story showed an average decay in content, results show that additional SR retellers in a chain was associated with greater decay, which mostly resulted from the introduction of an initial SR reteller at the beginning of the chain. Supporting the group-level effect, individual-level analysis confirmed that both the number of details and the story's key event were significantly less preserved after the SR compared to WR treatment week. Exploratory analysis showed an attenuation of this effect in those who reported a higher level of affective response (interest or surprise) in the story. This suggests that emotional engagement is important in combatting the deleterious effects of SR on successful story retelling, and perhaps on other types of content recollection.
    Keywords: sleep restriction, cognition, communication, information transmission
    JEL: C91 D90 D83
    Date: 2024–02
  11. By: Thomas Graeber; Shakked Noy; Christopher Roth; Thomas W. Graeber
    Abstract: For many decisions, people rely on information received from others by word of mouth. How does the process of verbal transmission distort economic information? In our experiments, participants listen to audio recordings containing economic forecasts and are paid to accurately transmit the information via voice messages. Other participants listen either to an original recording or a transmitted version and then state incentivized beliefs. Our main finding is that, across a variety of transmitter incentive schemes, information about the reliability of a forecast is lost in transmission more than twice as much as information about the forecast’s level. This differential information loss predictably distorts listeners’ belief updates: following transmission, reliable and unreliable messages converge in influence and average belief updates from new information are weakened. Mechanism experiments show that the differential loss is not driven by transmitters deliberately trading off the costs and benefits of transmitting different kinds of information. Instead, it results from memory constraints during transmission, which can be overcome through targeted reminders.
    Keywords: information transmission, word-of-mouth, narratives, reliability
    Date: 2024
  12. By: Mouli Modak (Chapman University)
    Abstract: In this experimental paper, the author investigates the framing effect of different representations of multiple strategic settings or games on a player’s strategic behavior. Two representations of the same environment are employed, wherein a player engages in two infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games. In the first representation (termed Split), the stage games are shown separately. In contrast, the second representation (termed Linked) displays a combined stage game. The choice bracketing, distinguishing between Narrow and Broad bracketing, is considered a potential cause behind any disparity in behavior between the two representations. The Split representation does not necessitate broad bracketing, whereas the Linked representation compels it. Each type of bracketing has its own equilibrium implications. The author employs both a between-subject design (Study 1), where each subject observes only one representation, and a within-subject design (Study 2), where each subject is shown both the Linked and Split representations. In Study 1, significant differences in average behavior between the two representations are observed for both symmetric and asymmetric payoffs, albeit only after conditioning for session fixed effects. Study 2 reveals a more prominent effect of representation, and a sequence effect is observed, wherein the tendency to defect in both games is higher in the Linked representation if administered after the Split representation. In Study 2, for individuals who cannot be categorized as broad bracketers, the effect of seeing the Linked representation instead of the Split representation is economically significant. It increases the probability of choosing to cooperate in both games by more than 20% and decreases the probability to defect in both games by more than 25%.
    Keywords: Framing efect, Choice bracketing, Infnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Game, Asymmetry, Between-subject, Within-subject
    JEL: C72 C91 D91
    Date: 2024
  13. By: Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, CESifo and IZA); Katharina Wedel (ifo Institute at the Ludwigs-Maximilians-University of Munich); Katharina Werner (ifo Institute at the Ludwigs-Maximilians-University of Munich)
    Abstract: We study how beliefs about the automatability of workers’ occupation affect labor-market expectations and willingness to participate in further training. In our representative online survey, respondents on average underestimate the automation risk of their occupation, especially those in high-automatability occupations. Randomized information about their occupations’ automatability increases respondents’ concerns about their professional future, and expectations about future changes in their work environment. The information also increases willingness to participate in further training, especially among respondents in highly automatable occupation (+five percentage points). This uptick substantially narrows the gap in willingness to train between those in high- and low-automatability occupations.
    Keywords: automation, further training, labor-market expectations, survey experiment, information
    JEL: J24 O33 I29 D83
    Date: 2023–12
  14. By: Gomez-Ruiz, Marcela (Autonomous University of Barcelona); Cervini-Plá, María (Universitat de Girona); Ramos, Xavier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of a change in the gender composition of the pool of candidates on the academic performance of women in an entrance exam. We use data from a natural experiment that altered the gender composition of the candidates for a nation-wide admission exam to a coding educational program. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that both men and women were accepted for the admission exam in all years except for 2019, when only women were allowed to take it. Our results reveal that in the absence of men, women exhibit enhanced performance, particularly in subjects where men do traditionally better, such as mathematics and logical reasoning. Conversely, we observe no significant effects in verbal tasks, where men do not typically outperform. The improvement in performance stems from both increased attempts at questions and a higher rate of correct answers. Women improve their academic performance by exerting greater effort when men are not present. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the stereotype threat is deactivated in the absence of men, highlighting the nuanced impact of gender composition on women's performance in high-stakes exams.
    Keywords: gender, performance, effort, stereotype threat, competition
    JEL: I20 I24 J16 J24
    Date: 2024–02
  15. By: Ying, Xiangji; Vorland, Colby J.; Qureshi, Riaz; Brown, Andrew William (Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington); Kilicoglu, Halil; Saldanha, Ian; DeVito, Nicholas J; Mayo-Wilson, Evan
    Abstract: Background: Selective non-reporting of studies and study results undermines trust in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Changes to clinical trial outcomes are sometimes associated with bias. Manually comparing trial documents to identify changes in trial outcomes is time consuming. Objective: This study aims to assess the capacity of the Generative Pretrained Transformer 4 (GPT-4) large language model in detecting and describing changes in trial outcomes within records. Methods: We will first prompt GPT-4 to define trial outcomes using five elements (i.e., domain, specific measurement, specific metric, method of aggregation, and time point). We will then prompt GPT-4 to identify outcome changes between the prospective versions of registrations and the most recent versions of registrations. We will use a random sample of 150 RCTs (~1, 500 outcomes) registered on We will include “Completed” trials categorized as “Phase 3” or “Not Applicable” and with results posted on Two independent raters will rate GPT-4’s judgements, and we will assess GPT-4’s accuracy and reliability. We will also explore the heterogeneity in GPT-4’s performance by the year of trial registration and trial type (i.e., applicable clinical trials, NIH-funded trials, and other trials). Discussion: We aim to develop methods that could assist systematic reviewers, peer reviewers, journal editors, and readers in monitoring changes in clinical trial outcomes, streamlining the review process, and improving transparency and reliability of clinical trial reporting.
    Date: 2024–02–29
  16. By: Ivo Steimanis; Esther Blanco; Björn Vollan
    Abstract: In this study, we provide causal evidence on the capacity of monetary incentives to encourage real-life local leaders managing water and land to improve their procedural fairness. We report results from incentivized decisions and surveys conducted with local leaders in rural Namibia (n=64) and their constituents (n=384). Conditional payments are introduced in a setting where leaders can select among different rules that vary in their perceived procedural fairness in distributing a monetary allocation. In a within-subject design we randomly introduce a small or large conditional payment for allowing for a vote. The majority of leaders (64%) embrace democratic decision-making initially. With payments there is a significant reduction in autocratic leadership, by switching mainly to appearing democratic while keeping control, but with no significant increase in truly democratic leadership. Explorative analyses reveal that the effects are mainly driven by extrinsically motivated leaders to govern, who are less democratic initially and who reap the conditional payments without effectively including constituents in the decision process. Our findings suggest that simply introducing conditional payments for democratic choices may not be sufficient to promote democratization of local governance for the management of natural resources, and caution against their blueprint use in pluralistic governance settings.
    Keywords: local governance of common pool resources, social norms, conditional payments, economic experiment
    JEL: D7 Q2 Q5 C9
    Date: 2024–03
  17. By: Laura Breitkopf (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Shyamal Chowdhury (University of Sydney); Shambhavi Priyam (World Bank, Washington DC, US); Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf (DICE), IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn, University of Cologne, Germany, University of Innsbruck, Austria, IZA Bonn, Germany, and CESifo Munich)
    Abstract: We use novel data on nearly 6, 000 children and adolescents aged 6 to 16 that combine incentivized measures of social, time, and risk preferences with rich information on child behavior and family environment to study whether children’s economic preferences predict their behavior. Results from standard regression specifications demonstrate the predictive power of children’s preferences for their prosociality, educational achievement, risky behaviors, emotional health, and behavioral problems. In a second step, we add information on a family’s socio-economic status, family structure, religion, parental preferences and IQ, and parenting style to capture household environment. As a result, the predictive power of preferences for behavior attenuates. We discuss implications of our findings for research on the formation of children’s preferences and behavior.
    Keywords: social preferences, time preferences, risk preferences, experiments with children, origins of preferences, human capital, behavior
    JEL: C91 D01
    Date: 2024–02
  18. By: Joshua C. Yang; Marcin Korecki; Damian Dailisan; Carina I. Hausladen; Dirk Helbing
    Abstract: This paper investigates the voting behaviors of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly OpenAI's GPT4 and LLaMA2, and their alignment with human voting patterns. Our approach included a human voting experiment to establish a baseline for human preferences and a parallel experiment with LLM agents. The study focused on both collective outcomes and individual preferences, revealing differences in decision-making and inherent biases between humans and LLMs. We observed a trade-off between preference diversity and alignment in LLMs, with a tendency towards more uniform choices as compared to the diverse preferences of human voters. This finding indicates that LLMs could lead to more homogenized collective outcomes when used in voting assistance, underscoring the need for cautious integration of LLMs into democratic processes.
    Date: 2024–01
  19. By: Jessen, Lasse J. (Kiel University); Koehne, Sebastian (Kiel University); Nüß, Patrick (Kiel University); Ruhose, Jens (University of Kiel)
    Abstract: Using survey experiments in the United States and Germany with 12, 000 participants, we examine perceptions of life expectancy inequality between rich and poor people. The life expectancy of the poor is underestimated more than that of the rich, leading to exaggerated perceptions of inequality in both countries. Receiving accurate information narrows concerns about this inequality. However, the impact of information on policy demand is limited because support for policies addressing life expectancy for the poor is consistently high, regardless of varying perceptions of inequality. We conclude that there is strong and unconditional public support for health equity policies.
    Keywords: socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy, health care, information treatment, survey experiment
    JEL: C90 D71 D83 I14 I18
    Date: 2024–02
  20. By: Nicola Garbarino; Sascha Möhrle; Florian Neumeier; Marie-Theres von Schickfus
    Abstract: Dealing with the consequences of climate change will put an increasing burden on public and private fnances. We use the example of floods in a survey experiment among 8, 000 German households to elicit households’ preferences for climate adaptation policies. In Germany, as in many countries, we observe low insurance penetration in combination with high ex-post state aid in case of large events. We fnd that prior expectations of flood aid, conditional on severe flooding, are low. Providing information about high ex-post aid increases support for a mandatory flood insurance scheme, which is seen as fairer compared to public aid. We also show that this result is driven by respondents updating their expectations, and reactions are stronger among uninsured households in low-risk areas. In contrast, information about announcements to cut flood aid does not signifcantly alter expectations and views. We conclude that fairness concerns are relevant in the discussion of public and private responsibilities in dealing with climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, public aid, mandatory insurance, survey experiment
    JEL: G52 H23 H84 Q54
    Date: 2024
  21. By: Luofeng Liao; Christian Kroer; Sergei Leonenkov; Okke Schrijvers; Liang Shi; Nicolas Stier-Moses; Congshan Zhang
    Abstract: Online A/B testing is widely used in the internet industry to inform decisions on new feature roll-outs. For online marketplaces (such as advertising markets), standard approaches to A/B testing may lead to biased results when buyers operate under a budget constraint, as budget consumption in one arm of the experiment impacts performance of the other arm. To counteract this interference, one can use a budget-split design where the budget constraint operates on a per-arm basis and each arm receives an equal fraction of the budget, leading to ``budget-controlled A/B testing.'' Despite clear advantages of budget-controlled A/B testing, performance degrades when budget are split too small, limiting the overall throughput of such systems. In this paper, we propose a parallel budget-controlled A/B testing design where we use market segmentation to identify submarkets in the larger market, and we run parallel experiments on each submarket. Our contributions are as follows: First, we introduce and demonstrate the effectiveness of the parallel budget-controlled A/B test design with submarkets in a large online marketplace environment. Second, we formally define market interference in first-price auction markets using the first price pacing equilibrium (FPPE) framework. Third, we propose a debiased surrogate that eliminates the first-order bias of FPPE, drawing upon the principles of sensitivity analysis in mathematical programs. Fourth, we derive a plug-in estimator for the surrogate and establish its asymptotic normality. Fifth, we provide an estimation procedure for submarket parallel budget-controlled A/B tests. Finally, we present numerical examples on semi-synthetic data, confirming that the debiasing technique achieves the desired coverage properties.
    Date: 2024–02
  22. By: Paul Gertler; Ada Kwan
    Abstract: Patients rely on medical care providers to act in their best interests because providers understand disease pathology and appropriate treatment much better than patients. Providers, however, not only give advice (diagnose) but also deliver (sell) treatments based on that advice. This creates a moral hazard dilemma where provider financial interests can diverge from patient interests, especially when providers are motivated more by profits than by altruism. We investigate how profit motivated versus altruistic preferences influence medical care decision making in the context of malaria in Kenya. We measured the appropriateness of care using data from an audit study that employed standardized patients (SP) who were trained to present as real patients the identical clinical case scenario to providers. The SPs were confirmed to be malaria negative before and after field work with a very reliable and sensitive blood test at a high-quality laboratory. We measured provider preferences using a lab in the field, real stakes, modified version of the dictator game. We find that more profit-motivated providers report higher rates of false-positive malaria test results than do more altruistic providers. Specifically, purely profit motivated providers report 30 percentage points more positives than providers who are altruistically motivated, and providers likely knew that the positive results that they reported to their patients were false. We also find that more profit motivated providers sold more unnecessary antimalarial drugs than did more altruistic providers. Based on mediation analysis, more profit-oriented providers sold more drugs not only because they knowingly reported more false positives, but also because they promoted drugs sales more conditional on a positive test result. Thus, profit motivated providers seem to have misrepresented test results to sell more unnecessary malaria-related drugs.
    JEL: I11 I12 I15
    Date: 2024–02
  23. By: Olivia Bertelli (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Calvo (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, IRSEM - Institut de recherche stratégique de l'Ecole militaire - Ministère des armées, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Massa Coulibaly; Moussa Coulibaly; Emmanuelle Lavallée (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marion Mercier (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, CEFREM - Centre de Formation et de Recherche sur les Environnements Méditérranéens - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); O. Z. Traoré
    Abstract: In standard household surveys, the data collected are exposed to response bias, particularly for questions considered sensitive. The List Experiment method is an alternative survey technique for limiting these biases. This article presents the results of an experimental survey conducted using this method with 1, 509 individuals throughout Mali. Individuals were surveyed by telephone during the summer of 2021 about their experiences and political attitudes related to insecurity. From a methodological point of view, we have drawn a number of lessons from the survey: among others, a very good understanding and acceptability of the method by the respondents, due in particular to the quality of the interviewers and supervisors; the need for a more complex sample design than for a standard questionnaire; and the importance of a short questionnaire when surveying by telephone. From an analytical point of view, the survey reveals the existence of significant social desirability biases - particularly for questions concerning political attitudes in relation to insecurity.
    Abstract: Dans les enquêtes standards auprès des ménages, les données collectées sont exposées à des biais de réponses, particulièrement pour les questions considérées comme sensibles. La méthode par comptage de réponses est une technique d'enquête alternative permettant de limiter ces biais. Cet article présente les résultats d'une enquête expérimentale menée selon cette méthode auprès de 1 509 individus sur l'ensemble du territoire malien. Les personnes ont été sondées par téléphone durant l'été 2021 à propos d'expériences et d'attitudes politiques liées à l'insécurité. D'un point de vue méthodologique, nous en tirons plusieurs enseignements : entre autres, une très bonne compréhension et acceptabilité de la méthode par les enquêté·e·s, qui tient notamment à la qualité des enquêteur·trice·s et des superviseur·se·s ; la nécessité d'un plan de sondage plus complexe que pour un questionnaire standard ; et l'importance d'un questionnaire court lorsqu'on enquête par téléphone. Du point de vue analytique, l'enquête fait ressortir l'existence de biais déclaratifs significatifs – notamment pour les questions portant sur les préférences politiques en lien avec l'insécurité.
    Keywords: Enquête téléphonique, phone survey, biais déclaratif, social desirability, Mali, List experiment, sécurité, security
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Diego A. Martin (Growth Lab)
    Abstract: Do women apply more for jobs when they know the hiring probability of female job seekers directly from employers? I implemented a randomized control trial and a double-incentivized resume rating to elicit the preferences of employers and job seekers for candidates and vacancies in Iraq. The treatment reveals the job offer rate for women, calculated using the employers’ selection of women divided by the total number of female candidates. After revealing the treatment, the women applied for jobs by three more percentage points than the men in the control group. This paper highlights the value of revealing employers’ preferences to improve the match between female candidates and employers when women underestimate the chances of finding a job.
    Keywords: Iraq, Application for jobs, Information treatment, Labor market matching, Gender difference
    JEL: J61 J64 J70
    Date: 2024–02
  25. By: Behaghel, Luc (Paris School of Economics); Dromundo, Sofia (OECD); Gurgand, Marc (Paris School of Economics); Hazard, Yagan (Paris School of Economics); Zuber, Thomas (Banque de France)
    Abstract: We analyze the employment effects of directing job seekers' applications toward establishments likely to recruit. We run a two-sided randomization design involving about 800, 000 job seekers and 40, 000 establishments, based on an empirical model that recommends each job seeker to firms so as to maximize total potential employment. Our intervention induces a 1% increase in job finding rates for short term contracts. This impact comes from a targeting effect combining (i) a modest increase in job seekers' applications to the very firms that were recommended to them, and (ii) a high success rate conditional on applying to these firms. Indeed, the success rate of job seekers' applications varies considerably across firms: the efficiency of applications sent to recommended firms is 2.7 times higher than the efficiency of applications to the average firm. This suggests that there can be substantial gains from better targeting job search, leveraging firm-level heterogeneity.
    Keywords: recommender systems, matching, RCT, active labor market policies
    JEL: J64
    Date: 2024–02

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.