nep-exp New Economics Papers
on Experimental Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒21
33 papers chosen by

  1. Social Preferences under the Shadow of the Future By Felix Kölle; Simone Quercia; Egon Tripodi
  2. "More bang for the buck"? Evidence on the effectiveness of an energy efficiency subsidy By Bartels, Lara; Werthschulte, Madeline
  3. Who Does the Talking Here? The Impact of Gender Composition on Team Interactions By David Hardt; Lea Mayer; Johannes Rincke
  4. Quantifying 'promising trials bias' in randomized controlled trials in education By Sam Sims; Jake Anders; Matthew Inglis; Hugues Lortie-Forgues; Ben Styles; Ben Weidmann
  5. Improving Human Deception Detection Using Algorithmic Feedback By Marta Serra-Garcia; Uri Gneezy
  6. Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment By Lena Dräger; Giang Nghiem
  7. Images Say More than Just Words: Effectiveness of Visual and Text Communication in Dispelling the Rent-Control Misconception By Jordi Brandts; Isabel Busom; Cristina Lopez-Mayan; Judith Panadés
  8. Dishonest Behaviour in Ambiguous Tasks: The Interplay between Effort and Competence By Michael Puntiroli; Serhiy Kandul; Valéry Bezençon; Bruno Lanz
  9. Eliciting Moral Preferences Under Image Concerns: Theory and Evidence By Roland Bénabou; Armin Falk; Luca Henkel; Jean Tirole
  10. The Corporate Legality Game A Lab Experiment on the Impact of Policies, Frames and Information By Leonardo Becchetti; Vittorio Pelligra; Fiammetta Rossetti
  11. Can a Mobile-App-Based Behavioral Intervention Teach Financial Skills to Youth? Experimental Evidence from a Financial Diaries Study By Frisancho, Veronica; Herrera, Alejandro; Prina, Silvia
  12. Incentive Complexity, Bounded Rationality and Effort Provision By Johannes Abeler; David Huffman; Collin Raymond; David B. Huffman
  13. Disentangling the role of surface and deep-level variables on individuals’ and groups’ creative performance: A cross-level experimental evidence. By Anne-Gaëlle Maltese; Sara Gil-Gallen; Patrick Llerena
  14. The Preference Survey Module: Evidence on social preferences from Tehran By Kosfeld, Michael; Sharafi, Zahra
  15. How do managers form their expectations about working from home? Survey experiments on the perception of productivity By Erdsiek, Daniel; Rost, Vincent
  16. Fairness in matching markets: Experimental evidence By König, Tobias; Mechtenberg, Lydia; Kübler, Dorothea; Schmacker, Renke
  17. Difficult Decisions By Yoram Halevy; David Walker-Jones; Lanny Zrill
  18. Mismatch in preferences for working from home: Evidence from discrete choice experiments with workers and employers By Lewandowski, Piotr; Lipowska, Katarzyna; Smoter, Mateusz
  19. Politicians' social welfare criteria - An experiment with German legislators By Ambuehl, Sandro; Blesse, Sebastian; Doerrenberg, Philipp; Feldhaus, Christoph; Ockenfels, Axel
  20. Gambling Habits and Probability Judgements in a Bayesian Task Environment By Dickinson, David L.; Reid, Parker
  21. Can Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration Reduce "Backway" Migration from The Gambia? By Bah, Tijan L.; Batista, Catia; Gubert, Flore; McKenzie, David
  22. Can Self-affirmation Encourage HIV-Prevention? Evidence from Female Sex Workers in Senegal By Sara Haire; Aurélia Lépine; Daniel Effron; Carole Treibich
  23. Strategic Incentives and the Optimal Sale of Information By Rosina Rodríguez Olivera
  24. Do individuals accept fluctuations in pension income? By Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Knebel, Caroline; Weber, Martin
  25. Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach By Janet Hua Jiang; Peter Norman; Daniela Puzzello; Bruno Sultanum; Randall Wright
  26. Silence kills! Victim-blaming social norms and violence against women By Sevinç Bermek; Konstantinos Matako; Asli Unan
  27. Is Sustainable Finance a Dangerous Placebo? By Florian Heeb; Julian F Kölbel; Stefano Ramelli; Anna Vasileva
  28. Anticipatory cash transfers for climate resilience: Findings from a randomized experiment in northeast Nigeria By Balana, Bedru; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Clingain, Clare; Andam, Kwaw S.; de Brauw, Alan; Yohanna, Ishaku; Olarewaju, Olukunbi; Schneider, Molly
  29. Social and Moral Distance in Risky Settings By Koukoumelis, Anastasios; Levati, Maria Vittoria Prof.; Nardi, Chiara
  30. The making of ethnic segregation in the labor market -Evidence from a field experiment. By Bursell, Moa; Bygren, Magnus
  31. Effects of Explicit Sponsorship Disclosure on User Engagement in Social Media Influencer Marketing By Cao, Zike; Belo, Rodrigo
  32. Cooperation is unaffected by the threat of severe adverse events in Public Goods Games By Bilancini, Ennio; Boncinelli, Leonardo; Nardi, Chiara; Pizziol, Veronica
  33. Contacts Between Locals and Migrants Among Chinese Youth: Out-group Bias and Familial Transmission By Timo Heinrich; Jason Shachat; Qinjuan Wan

  1. By: Felix Kölle; Simone Quercia; Egon Tripodi
    Abstract: Social interactions predominantly take place under the shadow of the future. Previous literature explains cooperation in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma as predominantly driven by self-interested strategic considerations. This paper provides a causal test of the importance of social preferences for cooperation, varying the composition of interactions to be either homogeneous or heterogeneous in terms of these preferences. Through a series of pre-registered experiments (N = 1, 074), we show that groups of prosocial individuals achieve substantially higher levels of cooperation. The cooperation gap between prosocial and selfish groups persists even when the shadow of the future is increased to make cooperation attractive for the selfish and when common knowledge about group composition is removed.
    Keywords: cooperation, indefinitely repeated games, prisoner’s dilemma, social preferences, experiment
    JEL: C73 C91 C92
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Bartels, Lara; Werthschulte, Madeline
    Abstract: With the aim of limiting global warming, environmental subsidies are a popular public finance instrument to reduce carbon emissions. However, there is little evidence on why subsidies are effective in increasing demand for the goods subsidized. We use a framed field experiment to disentangle and study the relative importance of the price and non-price effects implicit in a subsidy encouraging an energy-efficiency investment. In the experiment, participants decide on purchasing a low-flow showerhead and are either confronted with the introduction of a subsidy or a same-sized price decrease. We find a demand increase of about 3-percent when the price decreases and a significantly larger demand increase of about 9-percent when the subsidy is introduced. An analysis of the underlying channels rules out changes in beliefs and norm perceptions. Positive spill-over effects of the subsidy on other pro-environmental behaviors rather suggest that the non-price effect is explained by a crowding in of intrinsic motivation.
    Keywords: Behavioral public economics, subsidies, spillover, energy efficiency, field experiment
    JEL: C93 D90 H23 Q49
    Date: 2023
  3. By: David Hardt; Lea Mayer; Johannes Rincke
    Abstract: We analyze how the gender composition of teams affects team interactions. In an online experiment, we randomly assign individuals to gender-homogenous or gender-mixed teams. Teams meet in an audio chat room and jointly work on a gender-neutral team task. By design, effects on team performance can only work through communication. We find that all-male teams communicate more than all-female teams and outperform teams of both alternative gender compositions. In mixed teams, males strongly dominate the team conversation quantitatively. Past exposure to gender-mixed teamwork makes females more reluctant to engage in mixed teams, while for males the opposite is true.
    Keywords: teams, teamwork, gender composition, communication, team performance, preference for teamwork, online experiment
    JEL: C92 C93 D83 J16
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Sam Sims (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equaliising Opportunities, University College London); Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equaliising Opportunities, University College London); Matthew Inglis (Centre for Mathematical Cognition, Loughborough University); Hugues Lortie-Forgues (Centre for Mathematical Cognition, Loughborough University); Ben Styles (NFER); Ben Weidmann (Skills Lab, Harvard University)
    Abstract: Over the last twenty years, education researchers have increasingly conducted randomised experiments with the goal of informing the decisions of educators and policymakers. Such experiments have generally employed broad, consequential, standardised outcome measures in the hope that this would allow decisionmakers to compare effectiveness of different approaches. However, a combination of small effect sizes, wide confidence intervals, and treatment effect heterogeneity means that researchers have largely failed to achieve this goal. We argue that quasi-experimental methods and multi-site trials will often be superior for informing educators' decisions on the grounds that they can achieve greater precision and better address heterogeneity. Experimental research remains valuable in applied education research. However, it should primarily be used to test theoretical models, which can in turn inform educators' mental models, rather than attempting to directly inform decision making. Since comparable effect size estimates are not of interest when testing educational theory, researchers can and should improve the power of theory-informing experiments by using more closely aligned (i.e., valid) outcome measures. We argue that this approach would reduce wasteful research spending and make the research that does go ahead more informative, thus improving the return on investment in educational research.
    Keywords: randomized controlled trials, education, research, experiments, policy
    JEL: I20 I21 C90 C93
    Date: 2023–07
  5. By: Marta Serra-Garcia; Uri Gneezy
    Abstract: Can algorithms help people predict behavior in high-stakes prisoner’s dilemmas? Participants watching the pre-play communication of contestants in the TV show Golden Balls display a limited ability to predict contestants’ behavior, while algorithms do significantly better. We provide participants algorithmic advice by flagging videos for which an algorithm predicts a high likelihood of cooperation or defection. We find that the effectiveness of flags depends on their timing: participants rely significantly more on flags shown before they watch the videos than flags shown after they watch them. These findings show that the timing of algorithmic feedback is key for its adoption.
    Keywords: detecting lies, machine learning, cooperation, experiment
    JEL: D83 D91 C72 C91
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Lena Dräger; Giang Nghiem
    Abstract: This paper studies the causal effect of inflation literacy on inflation expectations and trust in the central bank using a randomized control trial (RCT) on a representative sample of the German population. In an experiment with two steps, we first test the effect of non-numerical information about inflation and monetary policy, the literacy treatment. In the second step, we randomly treat respondents with quantitative information and measure whether those who previously received the literacy treatment, incorporate quantitative information differently into their inflation forecasts. We find that the literacy treatment improves respondents’ knowledge about monetary policy and inflation and raises their trust in the central bank. It also causes a higher likelihood that respondents provide inflation predictions, but does not affect the level of expected inflation. Similarly, those who received the initial literacy treatment do not react differently to the quantitative information in terms of the level of their inflation forecasts, but they react more strongly to some treatments regarding their reported forecast uncertainty and trust in the central bank.
    Keywords: inflation literacy, inflation expectations, trust in the central bank, survey experiment, randomized control trial (RCT)
    JEL: E52 E31 D84
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Jordi Brandts; Isabel Busom; Cristina Lopez-Mayan; Judith Panadés
    Abstract: The highly popular belief that rent–control leads to an increase in the amount of affordable housing is in contradiction with ample empirical evidence and congruent theoretical explanations. It can therefore be qualified as a misconception. We present the results of a preregistered online experiment in which we study how to dispel this misconception using a refutational approach in two different formats, a video and a text. We find that the refutational video has a significantly higher positive impact on revising the misconception than a refutational text. This effect is driven by individuals who initially agreed with it and depart from it after the treatment. The refutational text, in turn, does not have a significant impact relative to a non–refutational text. Higher cognitive reflective ability is positively associated with revising beliefs in all interventions. Our research shows that visual communication effectively reduces the gap between scientific economic knowledge and the views of citizens.
    Keywords: misconceptions, policy beliefs, communication, refutation, online experiments
    JEL: A10 A20 C90 D83 D90
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Michael Puntiroli; Serhiy Kandul; Valéry Bezençon; Bruno Lanz
    Abstract: Ambiguous tasks present information that is subject to varying interpretations. Extensive research suggests that ambiguous tasks may lead to dishonest behaviour in various contexts (e.g. claiming back expenses or setting project deadlines), because individuals interpret the information in self-serving ways. Despite “effort” and “competence” potentially helping to disambiguate tasks, and thus deter dishonest behaviour, no research to date has investigated their role in this context. This paper presents a novel experimental design investigating dishonest behaviour in settings involving ambiguous tasks. We explore how both the effort required to disambiguate a task and individual competence impact dishonest behaviour. In Study 1, participants resolved an ambiguous task and self-reported their performance, validating that ambiguity and dishonesty increase in unison. Study 2 further demonstrated that participants who exerted more effort to disambiguate information were more successful at completing the task, leading to less dishonesty. Lastly, in Study 3, we increased participants' competence in resolving ambiguity through a brief training session, which effectively reduced the effort required to disambiguate the task, leading to a subsequent decrease in dishonest behaviour. Overall, our results suggest that dishonesty can be mitigated by either encouraging individuals to invest effort into disambiguating information or by enhancing their competence at solving ambiguous tasks through training sessions.
    Keywords: ambiguity, competence, effort, training, dishonesty
    Date: 2023–07
  9. By: Roland Bénabou; Armin Falk; Luca Henkel; Jean Tirole
    Abstract: We analyze how the impact of image motives on behavior varies with two key features of the choice mechanism: single versus multiple decisions, and certainty versus uncertainty of consequences. Using direct elicitation (DE) versus multiple-price-list (MPL) or equivalently Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) schemes as exemplars, we characterize how image-seeking inflates prosocial giving. The signaling bias (relative to true preferences) is shown to depend on the interaction between elicitation method and visibility level: it is greater under DE for low image concerns, and greater under MPL/BDM for high ones. We experimentally test the model’s predictions and find the predicted crossing effect.
    Keywords: Moral behavior, deontology, utilitarianism, consequentialism, social image, self-image, norms, preference elicitation, multiple price list, experiments
    JEL: C91 D01 D62 D64 D78
    Date: 2023–07
  10. By: Leonardo Becchetti; Vittorio Pelligra; Fiammetta Rossetti
    Abstract: A company that pursues illicit practices may crowd out competitors that behave legally eroding the public good of legality and integrity. Recently born institutional legality ratings tackle this problem. Redistributive policy actions aimed to tax “defectors” (i.e. buyers of unrated products) in favor of “co-operators” (i.e. buyers of “legality-rated” products) may further enforce legality, and fight corruption. We analyze the impact of the legality-rating frame by means of a randomized experiment. Our findings document that redistribution mechanisms, the legality frame and the conformity information design contribute to alleviate the prisoner’s dilemma and generate significant deviations from the Nash Equilibrium.
    Keywords: Corruption, Laboratory Experiment, Redistribution, Conformity
    Date: 2023–07–12
  11. By: Frisancho, Veronica (Inter-American Development Bank); Herrera, Alejandro (Instituto de Estudios Avanzados en Desarrollo (INESAD)); Prina, Silvia (Northeastern University)
    Abstract: We study the impact of a mobile-app-based behavioral intervention on youth's financial literacy and financial behavior. To maximize the chances to reach out-of-school youth, we provided access to a user-friendly budget recording tool coupled with biweekly enumerators' visits and SMSs during a 27-week period. The bundled treatment has positive and significant effects on financial literacy and awareness of market prices. The probability of saving and savings deposits are not affected, but usage of credit increases both at the extensive and intensive margins. Average treatment effects on financial literacy and behavior are driven by youth without previous exposure to financial education, suggesting that the bundled intervention prompted specific subgroups (i.e., youth with lower levels of financial knowledge) to invest more in financial literacy.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, financial diaries, financial literacy, youth
    JEL: C93 D90 G41 G53 O12 O16
    Date: 2023–07
  12. By: Johannes Abeler; David Huffman; Collin Raymond; David B. Huffman
    Abstract: Using field and laboratory experiments, we demonstrate that the complexity of incentive schemes and worker bounded rationality can affect effort provision, by shrouding attributes of the incentives. In our setting, complexity leads workers to over-provide effort relative to a fully rational benchmark, and improves efficiency. We identify contract features, and facets of worker cognitive ability, that matter for shrouding. We find that even relatively small degrees of shrouding can cause large shifts in behavior. Our results illustrate important implications of complexity for designing and regulating workplace incentive contracts.
    Keywords: complexity, bounded rationality, shrouded attribute, Ratchet effect, dynamic incentives, field experiments
    JEL: D80 D90 J20 J30
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Anne-Gaëlle Maltese; Sara Gil-Gallen; Patrick Llerena
    Abstract: Our societies are based on the principle of heterogeneity of individuals who possess diverse multidimensional characteristics. Social interactions among those profiles significantly impact collective activities, including creative outcomes. There exists a growing literature studying the variables influencing both individual and collective creative performance, but due to the complexity of the phenomenon, the literature does not find a consensus on their impact. The novelty introduced by this paper is first to capture and disentangle the role of surface and deeplevel diversity variables in individual and collective creative performance. Secondly, we run a collective experiment involving real social interactions, which is a dimension rarely captured in the experimental economics literature, to measure groups’ creative performance and the creative process behind it. Finally, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first experimental paper disentangling the role of such variables within individual creative performance, considering both convergent and divergent thinking by introducing three different types of tasks: open, open with constraints, and closed. The results of our analysis concluded that exists a mixed pattern of the impact of surface and deep-level variables on the individual creative performance, knowing that it will differ according to the degree of openness and the criteria of creativity. The only factor that arose persistently across degrees of openness was the self-evaluation of the performance in the task, which positively relates to creative performance (open and closed), while open with constraints is detrimental for subjects who self-evaluate their performance better than others. At the collective level, we observe different types of results depending on the evaluation criteria by means of feasibility fostered by homogeneous female groups and instead originality by half male and half female. Moreover, we also observe the implications of individual training, driven by subjects’ from programs with the formation in creativity being detrimental for feasibility but instead increasing originality in collective creative performance. To be noted, further improvements in this work have to be expected, and we invite the reader to refer to the last section of this paper for more information.
    Keywords: sCreativity, Diversity, Collective, Experiment.
    JEL: C91 C92 O31
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Kosfeld, Michael; Sharafi, Zahra
    Abstract: We provide evidence on the extent to which survey items in the Preference Survey Module and the resulting Global Preference Survey measuring social preferences - trust, altruism, positive and negative reciprocity - predict behavior in corresponding experimental games outside the original participant sample of Falk et al. (2022). Our results, which are based on a replication study with university students in Tehran, Iran, are mixed. While quantitative items considering hypothetical versions of the experimental games correlate significantly and economically meaningfully with individual behavior, none of the qualitative items show significant correlations. The only exception is altruism where results correspond more closely to the original findings.
    Keywords: Preference survey module, global preference survey, validation, replication, social preferences
    JEL: C81 C83 C90 D01 D03
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Erdsiek, Daniel; Rost, Vincent
    Abstract: The recent shift towards working from home (WFH) has far-reaching implications for social and economic outcomes. While firms are gatekeepers for the ongoing diffusion of flexible work arrangements, there is little evidence on how firms decide to offer WFH. We leverage two survey experiments among nearly 800 knowledge-intensive services firms in Germany to analyse whether managers' beliefs about the productivity effects of WFH affect their adoption decisions. Exploiting exogenous variation in managers' information set, we find that managers update their beliefs about the productivity effects of WFH when they receive information on workers' self-assessed WFH productivity. In addition, the information treatment significantly increases managers' willingness to adopt or intensify WFH policies. Combining our main survey experiment with two follow-up surveys, we find persistent information treatment effects on both managers' beliefs about WFH productivity and firms' expected WFH intensity after the Covid-19 pandemic. A complementary survey experiment confirms our results pointing to a causal relationship between managers' beliefs about WFH productivity and the adoption of WFH practices. These findings have implications for potential policy measures targeting firms' WFH adoption.
    Keywords: working from home, survey experiment, information provision, firm-level, managers, expectations
    JEL: D22 D23 L22 O33 M54
    Date: 2023
  16. By: König, Tobias; Mechtenberg, Lydia; Kübler, Dorothea; Schmacker, Renke
    Abstract: We investigate fairness preferences in matching mechanisms using a spectator design. Participants choose between the Boston mechanism or the serial dictatorship mechanism (SD) played by others. In our setup, the Boston mechanism generates justified envy, while the strategy-proof SD ensures envy-freeness. When priorities are merit-based, many spectators prefer the Boston mechanism, and this preference increases when priorities are determined by luck. At the same time, there is support for SD, but mainly when priorities are merit-based. Stated voting motives indicate that choosing SD is driven by concerns for envy-freeness rather than strategy-proofness, while support for the Boston mechanism stems from the belief that strategic choices create entitlements.
    Keywords: markets, school choice, voting, Boston mechanism, sincere agents, justified envy
    JEL: D47 C92 I24 D72
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Yoram Halevy; David Walker-Jones; Lanny Zrill
    Abstract: We investigate the problem of identifying incomplete preferences in the domain of uncertainty by proposing an incentive-compatible mechanism that bounds the behavior that can be rationalized by very general classes of complete preferences. Hence, choices that do not abide by the bounds indicate that the decision maker cannot rank the alternatives. Data collected from an experiment that implements the proposed mechanism indicates that when choices cannot be rationalized by Subjective Expected Utility they are usually incompatible with general models of complete preferences. Moreover, behavior that is indicative of incomplete preferences is empirically associated with deliberate randomization.
    Keywords: Incomplete Preferences, Identification, Elicitation, Choice Under Uncertainty, Deliberate Randomization, Experiment
    JEL: C91 D01 D81 D9
    Date: 2023–07–25
  18. By: Lewandowski, Piotr; Lipowska, Katarzyna; Smoter, Mateusz
    Abstract: We study preferences for remote work using a large-scale discrete choice study with 10, 000 workers and 1, 500 employers in Poland. Workers value remote work more than employers. On average, workers are willing to sacrifice 2.9% of earnings for remote work, with hybrid work from home (WFH) for 2-3 days (5.1%) preferred over 5 days (0.6%). Employers expect a 21.0% wage cut from remote workers. This 18 pp gap between employers' and workers' valuations reflects employers' concerns over productivity loss (14 pp) and effort to manage remote workers (4 pp). Only 25-36% of employers with positive perceptions of remote work productivity show valuations of remote work that align with workers' willingness to pay for it.
    Keywords: Working from home, remote work, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay
    JEL: J21 J31 J81
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Ambuehl, Sandro; Blesse, Sebastian; Doerrenberg, Philipp; Feldhaus, Christoph; Ockenfels, Axel
    Abstract: Much economic analysis derives policy recommendations based on social welfare criteria intended to model the preferences of a policy maker. Yet, little is known about policy maker's normative views in a way amenable to this use. In a behavioral experiment, we elicit German legislators' social welfare criteria unconfounded by political economy constraints. When resolving preference conflicts across individuals, politicians place substantially more importance on least-favored than on most-favored alternatives, contrasting with both common aggregation mechanisms and the equal weighting inherent in utilitarianism and the Kaldor-Hicks criterion. When resolving preference conflicts within individuals, we find no support for the commonly used 'long-run criterion' which insists that choices merit intervention only if the lure of immediacy may bias intertemporal choice. Politicians' and the public's social welfare criteria largely coincide.
    Keywords: Positive welfare economics, politicians, preference aggregation, paternalism
    JEL: C9 D6
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Dickinson, David L. (Appalachian State University); Reid, Parker (Appalachian State University)
    Abstract: Little is known about how gamblers estimate probabilities from multiple information sources. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n=465 participants (self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers). Our data failed to support our main hypotheses that experienced online gamblers would be more accurate Bayesian decision-makers compared to non-gamblers, that gamblers experienced in games of skill (e.g., poker) would be more accurate than gamblers experienced only in non-skill games (e.g., slots), or that accuracy would differ in females compared to males. Pairwise comparisons between these types of participants also failed to show any difference in decision weights placed on the two information sources. Exploratory analysis, however, revealed interesting effects related to self-reported gambling frequency. Specifically, more frequent online gamblers had lower Bayesian accuracy than infrequent gamblers. Also, those scoring higher in a cognitive reflection task were more Bayesian in weighting information sources when making belief assessments. While we report no main effect of sex on Bayesian accuracy, exploratory analysis found that the decline in accuracy linked to self-reported gambling frequency was stronger for females. Decision modeling found a decreased weight placed on new evidence (over base rate odds) in those who showed decreased accuracy, which suggests a proper incorporation of new information into one's probability assessments is important for more accurate assessment of probabilities in uncertain environments. Our results link frequency of gambling to worse performance in the critical probability assessment skills that should benefit gambling success (i.e., in skill-based games).
    Keywords: gambling, Bayes rule, probability judgements, cognitive reflection
    JEL: C91 D91 D83
    Date: 2023–07
  21. By: Bah, Tijan L. (World Bank); Batista, Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics); Gubert, Flore (IRD, DIAL, Paris-Dauphine); McKenzie, David (World Bank)
    Abstract: Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely risky for migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3, 641 young men from 391 settlements in The Gambia is used to test three approaches to reducing risky migration: providing better information and testimonials about the risks of the journey, facilitating migration to a safer destination by providing information and assistance for migration to Dakar, and offering vocational skill training to enhance domestic employment opportunities. Current migration to Senegal was increased by both the Dakar facilitation and vocational training treatments, partially crowding out internal migration. The vocational training treatment reduced intentions to migrate the backway and the number of steps taken toward moving. However, the backway migration rate from The Gambia collapsed, even in the control group, resulting in no space for a treatment effect on irregular migration from any of the three interventions.
    Keywords: cash transfer, vocational training, information interventions, migration deterrence, irregular migration, randomized experiment
    JEL: O15 F22 J61
    Date: 2023–07
  22. By: Sara Haire (University of Miami); Aurélia Lépine (UCL - University College of London [London]); Daniel Effron (London Business School); Carole Treibich (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: We test an intervention aiming to increase condom usage and HIV testing in a stigmatized population at high risk of contracting HIV: female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal. Some sex work is legal in Senegal, and condoms and HIV tests are freely available to registered FSWs—but FSWs may be reluctant to get tested and use condoms, in part because doing so would entail acknowledging their risk of contracting HIV and potentially expose them to stigma. Drawing on self-affirmation theory, we hypothesized that reflecting on a source of personal pride would help participants acknowledge their risk of HIV, intend to use condoms more frequently, and take an HIV test. Prior research suggests that similar self-affirmation interventions can help people acknowledge their health risks and improve their health behavior, especially when paired with information about effectively managing their health (i.e., self-efficacy information ). However, such interventions have primarily been tested in the United States and United Kingdom, and their generalizability outside of these contexts is unclear. Our high-powered experiment randomly assigned participants (N = 592 FSWs; N = 563 in the final analysis) to a self-affirmation condition or a control condition and measured their risk perceptions, whether they took condoms offered to them, and whether (after randomly receiving or not receiving self-efficacy information) they took an HIV test. We found no support for any of our hypotheses. We discuss several explanations for these null results based on the stigma attached to sex work and HIV, cross-cultural generalizability of self-affirmation interventions, and robustness of previous findings.
    Keywords: Self-affirmation, Self-efficacy, HIV, Stigma, Female sex work, Health
    Date: 2023–05–17
  23. By: Rosina Rodríguez Olivera
    Abstract: I consider a model in which a monopolist data-seller offers information to privately informed data-buyers who play a game of incomplete information. I characterize the data-seller's optimal menu, which screens between two types of data-buyers. Data-buyers' preferences for information cannot generally be ordered across types. I show that the nature of data-buyers' preferences for information allows the data-seller to extract all surplus. In particular, the data-seller offers a perfectly informative experiment , which makes the data-buyer with the highest willingness to pay and a partially informative experiment, which makes the data-buyer with the highest willingness to pay for perfect information indifferent between both experiments. I also show that the features of the optimal menu are determined by the interaction between data-buyers' strategic incentives and the correlation of their private information. Namely, the data-seller offers two informative experiments even when data-buyers would choose the same action without supplemental information if data-buyers: i) have coordination incentives and their private information is negatively correlated or ii) have anti-coordination incentives and their private information is positively correlated.
    Keywords: Screening, Information, Strategic incentives
    JEL: D80 D82
    Date: 2023–07
  24. By: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Knebel, Caroline; Weber, Martin
    Abstract: How to invest and decumulate wealth during retirement has far-reaching consequences for consumption during retirement. We conduct an online experiment among 2, 500 individuals representative of the adult German population. First, we investigate the choice between phased withdrawal plans with varying riskiness resulting in volatile retirement income. We find that 40% of the participants choose some risk and thus, accept fluctuations in retirement income. Second, we analyze the choice between the selected withdrawal plan and a lifelong annuity. Overall 56% of the respondents switch to the annuity. Switching behavior is more prevalent among individuals who chose the risk-free and medium-risk withdrawal plans as compared to the risky plan. Anchoring and fluctuation frames have small and significant effects on plan choice.
    Keywords: Retirement planning, phased withdrawal plans, annuities, framing
    JEL: D14 E21 G5 H55 J14 J26
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Janet Hua Jiang; Peter Norman; Daniela Puzzello; Bruno Sultanum; Randall Wright
    Abstract: Monetary exchange is deemed essential when better incentive-compatible outcomes can be achieved with money than without it. We study essentiality both theoretically and experimentally, using finite-horizon monetary models that are naturally suited to the lab. We also follow the mechanism design approach and study the effects of strategy recommendations, both when they are incentive-compatible and when they are not. Results show that output and welfare are significantly enhanced by fiat currency when monetary equilibrium exists. Also, recommendations help if they are incentive-compatible but not much otherwise. Sometimes money is used when it should not be and we investigate why, using surveys and measures of social preferences.
    Keywords: Central bank research; Economic models
    JEL: E4 E5 C92
    Date: 2023–07
  26. By: Sevinç Bermek; Konstantinos Matako; Asli Unan
    Abstract: Despite its huge social, psychological and economic costs, gender-based, intimate partner violence (IPV) is a phenomenon that persists in many countries. IPV is often not actively contested by society the persistence of victim-blaming norms might increase its social acceptability and thus hinter policy and behavior change. Are persisting victim-blaming attitudes and lack of action/policy support because of differences in own values or social norms? This paper examines the role of patriarchy values and social norms on gender attitudes towards and action/policy support regarding intimate partner violence. We conducted an online survey experiment in which a sample of 4, 000 respondents in Turkey –a country with the highest IPV prevalence among OECD members– was randomly assigned to receive hypothetical IPV scenario treatment with or without invocation of social norms, or control. Simply making the existence of a social norm salient (by eliciting respondents’ incentivized beliefs on what the majority/others think) increased support for policies to combat IPV by 3 to 4 percentage points compared to the control group. Our results suggest that while patriarchal attitudes are rather immovable and better at predicting own attitudes towards gender-based IPV, social norms do a much better job at changing policy preferences and (incentivized) behavior. Thus, policy change is possible even if individual patriarchy values are relatively stable. These findings highlight the need to consider the role of social norms when designing policies to tackle IPV. By exploiting our dynamic information-updating design, we also find strong convergence of individuals’ attitudes (on gender-based violence) to the elicited social norms.
    Date: 2023
  27. By: Florian Heeb (MIT Sloan); Julian F Kölbel (University of St. Gallen; MIT Sloan; and Swiss Finance Institute); Stefano Ramelli (University of St. Gallen; and Swiss Finance Institute); Anna Vasileva (University of Zurich)
    Abstract: A first-order concern regarding sustainable finance is that it may crowd out individual support for more effective, policy-driven approaches to address societal challenges. We test the validity of this concern in a pre-registered experiment in the context of a real referendum on a climate law with a representative sample of the Swiss population (N=2, 051). We find that the opportunity to invest in a climate-conscious fund does not erode individuals’ support for climate regulation. While sustainable finance resembles a placebo in the sense that participants seem to overestimate its impact, it is not a dangerous placebo that crowds out political engagement.
    Keywords: Behavioral Finance, Climate Change, ESG, Externalities, Sustainable Finance, Political Economy, Voting Behavior
    JEL: D14 H42 G18 P16
    Date: 2023–06
  28. By: Balana, Bedru; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Clingain, Clare; Andam, Kwaw S.; de Brauw, Alan; Yohanna, Ishaku; Olarewaju, Olukunbi; Schneider, Molly
    Abstract: This paper presents the findings from an experimental study designed to assess the impacts of one-time large lump sum cash transfers on welfare and coping strategies of smallholders in climate-risk and conflict-affected communities in northeast Nigeria. This pilot intervention was supported by and implemented by the International Rescue Committee (IRC). The central hypothesis of the intervention is that when climate vulnerable communities have timely access to information and the financial and social resources to act upon that information, they will avoid negative coping strategies and build more diversified and climate resilient livelihoods. The project transferred a lump sum of cash to a treatment group of randomly sampled households when triggered by the climate data risk thresholds. An equal number of comparable households in a control group received the same amount of cash post flooding shock. The main purpose of the study was to assess the impacts of anticipatory cash against the traditional humanitarian post-shocks supporting mechanism. We collected baseline and endline data from a sample of 1450 experimental households (725 ‘treatment’ and 725 ‘control’) and analyzed the data using econometric models. Several outcome indicators including food security, climate adaptive and resilience actions, and wellbeing measures were used to assess the intervention. The results indicate that anticipatory cash has significant impacts on reducing negative coping strategies, increasing the number of pre-emptive climate adaptive actions, and increasing investment in productive assets that could enhance future resilience. On other hand, anticipatory cash transfers do not seem to have significant impacts on short-term food and non-food consumption expenditures compared to post-shock cash transfers. Our findings indicate that one-time large sum anticipatory transfer could lead households to build their climate resilience capacity, and hence a promising intervention to reduce the vulnerability of households to future climate shocks. Based on the findings we have two key recommendations: (1) Given the generally positive findings on household’s welfare and climate resilience capacity, we suggest humanitarian agencies and governments to consider anticipatory interventions (such as pre-shock cash transfers) as a mechanism for both meeting basic needs and improving climate resilience of households provided that quality data and analytics exist to predict a high probability of climate shocks. (2) As climate shocks continue to worsen and humanitarian funding needs remain unmet for both emergencies and early recovery, anticipatory approach may be critical to meeting the short- and long-term needs of climate and conflict-affected households.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; cash transfers; welfare; smallholders; climate change; conflict; resilience; information; finance; social safety nets; food security; investment; vulnerability; flooding; climate resilience; anticipatory cash; coping strategies
    Date: 2023
  29. By: Koukoumelis, Anastasios; Levati, Maria Vittoria Prof. (University of Verona); Nardi, Chiara
    Abstract: Many socially desirable actions are subject to risk and occur in situations where the others are not anonymous. Assessing whether lower subject-subject anonymity affects behavior when outcomes are risky is likely important but has not been studied in depth so far. Herein, we provide evidence on this issue. In a series of allocation tasks, all of them variations of the dictator game, we systematically vary the party who is exposed to risk and manipulate recipient anonymity by reducing the social and/or moral distance between the two parties. We propose a model that extends previous work by allowing not only for ex ante and ex post fairness but also for altruism. The model is consistent with observed behavior. In particular, a reduction in social and moral distance significantly increases the likelihood of equal split and more than equal split choices.
    Date: 2023–07–13
  30. By: Bursell, Moa (Institute for Futures Studies, Iffs); Bygren, Magnus (Institute for Futures Studies and Department of Sociology, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: Western labor markets are typically segregated by country of birth, with immigrants often working in immigrant-typed jobs, e.g., cleaners, taxi drivers, fast-food chefs, and similar. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether employer variation in discriminatory hiring choices contributes to the maintenance of such immigrant niches by channeling immigrants and their descendants into these types of jobs. We use correspondence audit data derived from 7, 051 job applications sent to job openings in 15 different occupations in the Swedish labor market between 2013 and 2019, in which names signaling the ‘foreignness’ of job applicants were randomly assigned to job applications with otherwise identical qualifications. Our results suggest that employers do contribute to this type of segregation. While ethnic discrimination is pervasive in the ‘native’ occupations in our data, it declines as the share of foreign-born individuals working in a given occupation increases, and is low or even absent in the most immigrant-dense niches. However, the pattern is gendered: it is only ‘foreign’-named men who are disproportionately channeled into such niches. We conclude that variation in discriminatory employer hiring choices appears to be partly responsible for reproducing (male-dominated) immigrant niches in the labor market.
    Keywords: discrimination; ethnicity; segregation; correspondence audit; field experiments; labor market; hiring
    JEL: J71
    Date: 2023–05–17
  31. By: Cao, Zike; Belo, Rodrigo
    Abstract: Social media influencer marketing has grown substantially in the last decade and is a major advertising channel for many brands. Social media influencers weave sponsored posts with organic content in their feeds, which raises concerns among regulators and consumer advocates that users may not be able to clearly distinguish between sponsored and organic influencer content. Thus, regulators often mandate the explicit disclosure of sponsored content. However, there is little empirical evidence based on field data about the effects of explicit sponsorship disclosure. Therefore, we empirically investigate the effects of explicitly disclosing sponsorship in influencers' content on users' engagement using a large-scale field dataset collected from Facebook and Instagram. Our empirical results suggest that explicit sponsorship disclosure increases user awareness of the advertising nature and earns users' favorability by enhancing the transparency about the sponsored content. We further design two online experiments to corroborate our empirical results and directly test the underlying mechanisms. Our findings have novel and important implications for marketers, influencers, social media platforms, and regulators in the influencer marketing industry.
    Date: 2023–07–14
  32. By: Bilancini, Ennio; Boncinelli, Leonardo; Nardi, Chiara; Pizziol, Veronica
    Abstract: We study how cooperation in one-shot Public Goods Games with large group sizes is affected by the presence of a slight chance of severe adverse events. We find that cooperation is substantial, notwithstanding a low marginal return of contributions. The cooperation level is comparable to what is found in similar settings for small-sized groups. Furthermore, we find no appreciable effect of the threat of severe adverse events, whether their realization is independent across individuals, perfectly positively or negatively correlated. We conclude that cooperation in the Public Goods Game is unlikely to be affected by rare adverse events, independently of how risk is correlated across individuals.
    Date: 2023–07–13
  33. By: Timo Heinrich (Hamburg University of Technology); Jason Shachat (Durham University Business School and Wuhan University); Qinjuan Wan (Central China Normal University)
    Abstract: Conficts between local and migrant populations have been ubiquitous in modern China. We examine the longer-term potentials for resolution through inter-group contact and persistence through the inter-generational transmission of preferences. Public schooling in Chinese cities provides one of the largest interventions for children with diferent group identities to interact extensively. We adopt the perspective that in- and out-group biased behavior structurally arises from group-conditional social preferences. By conducting experiments consisting of binary dictator allocation tasks in schools in a Chinese city, we can analyze how integrated schooling shapes the respective behavior. Surprisingly, we do not observe any negative out-group bias. In fact, local students exhibit a positive out-group bias by choosing sharing behavior more toward migrant than other local peers. This sharing behavior is most prevalent among primary school cohorts. We also do not fnd a higher prevalence of out-group bias among parents. However, parents make more envious choices, highlighting the potential for broader positive efects of schooling. In addition, we fnd strong evidence for the inter-generational transmission of preferences. Overall, these fndings suggest that more directed eforts to establish contact between locals and migrants may be successful in overcoming the confict.
    Keywords: social preferences, group identity, out-group bias, Chinese youth, migration
    JEL: C91 D92 M11
    Date: 2023

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.