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on Experimental Economics |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tilahun, Mesfin (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | The incentivized risky investment game has become a popular tool in lab-in-the-field experiments for its simplicity and ease of comprehension compared to some of the more complex Multiple Choice List approaches that have been more commonly used in laboratory experiments. We use a field experiment to test whether the game can predict real-world investments by the same subjects based on the assumption that the game can provide a reliable measure of risk tolerance and that risk tolerance is an important predictor of investment behavior. The results show that the game cannot predict investment behavior in our sample. There are two reasons for this. First, we find substantial measurement error and low correlation when the game is repeated one year later for the same subjects. Measurement error is so large in our sample that the “obviously related instrumental variable” (ORIV) approach of Gillen, Snowberg and Yariv (2019) could not remedy the problem. Second, the game appears to suffer from low asset integration due to narrow bracketing, explaining its limited predictive power and the failure to detect attenuation bias due to measurement error. Subjects’ cognitive memory of the game played one year earlier is strongly positively related to investment intensity in the game and this result is much enhanced when correcting for the endogeneity of cognitive memory. |
| Keywords: | risky investment game; field experiment; prediction measurement error; cognitive memory; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C93 D90 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2022_005&r= |
| By: | Robert Dur (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez (University of Zurich); Cornel Nesseler (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | A rich literature shows that ethnic discrimination is an omnipresent and highly persistent phenomenon. Little is known, however, about how to reduce discrimination. This study reports the results of a large-scale field experiment we ran together with the Norwegian Football Federation. The federation sent an email to a random selection of about 500 amateur soccer coaches, pointing towards the important role that soccer can play in promoting inclusivity and reducing racism in society and calling on the coaches to be open to all interested applicants. Two weeks later, we sent fictitious applications to join an amateur club, using either a nativesounding or a foreign-sounding name, to the same coaches and to a random selection of about 500 coaches who form the control group. In line with earlier research, we find that applications from people with a native-sounding name receive significantly more positive responses than applications from people with a foreign-sounding name. Surprisingly and unintentionally, the email from the federation substantially increased rather than decreased this gap. Our study underlines the importance of running field experiments to check whether well-intended initiatives are effective in reducing discrimination. |
| Keywords: | ethnic discrimination; intervention; field experiment; correspondence test; amateur soccer. |
| JEL: | C93 J15 Z2 |
| Date: | 2022–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220050&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Attanasi (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Massimo Egidi (LUISS University, Rome); Elena Manzoni (University of Bergamo) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the determinants of routinization and creativity by means of a lab-in-the-field experiment run at the 20th edition of a mass gathering festival in Italy ("La Notte della Taranta"). In the experiment, subjects play repeatedly the puzzle version of Target-The-Two game (32 hands). We find that when we focus on expert subjects there is no difference in behavior between creative and routinized individuals. When we consider inexpert subjects, instead, routinized individuals perform better, due to the fact that they are faster. However, routinization, although increasing the likelihood to complete all the 32 hands of the game, it increases the number of moves needed to complete them, which ultimately decreases the likelihood to win the game. |
| Keywords: | creativity, routinization, Target-The-Two game, lab-in-the-field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D91 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-43&r= |
| By: | Anselm Hager (Humboldt University); Lukas Hensel (Peking University); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne); Andreas Stegmann (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a natural field experiment with a major European party to test whether giving party supporters the opportunity to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the party’s electoral campaign. In our experiment, the party asked a random subset of supporters for their opinions on the importance of different topics. Giving supporters more opportunities to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the campaign as measured using behavioral data from the party’s smartphone application. Survey data reveals that our voice treatments also increase other margins of campaign effort as well as perceived voice. Our evidence highlights that parties can increase their supporters’ investment in the democratic process by implementing policies that increase their voice. |
| Keywords: | Political engagement, Inclusion, Voice, Agency, Natural Field Experiment,Canvassing JEL Classification:D8, P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:601&r= |
| By: | Brett R. Gordon; Robert Moakler; Florian Zettelmeyer |
| Abstract: | Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have become increasingly popular in both marketing practice and academia. However, RCTs are not always available as a solution for advertising measurement, necessitating the use of observational methods. We present the first large-scale exploration of two observational methods, double/debiased machine learning (DML) and stratified propensity score matching (SPSM). Specifically, we analyze 663 large-scale experiments at Facebook, each of which is described using over 5,000 user- and experiment-level features. Although DML performs better than SPSM, neither method performs well, despite using deep learning models to implement the propensity scores and outcome models. The median absolute percentage point difference in lift is 115%, 107%, and 62% for upper, mid, and lower funnel outcomes, respectively. These are large measurement errors, given that the median RCT lifts are 28%, 19%, and 6% for the funnel outcomes, respectively. We further leverage our large sample of experiments to characterize the circumstances under which each method performs comparatively better. However, broadly speaking, our results suggest that state-of-the-art observational methods are unable to recover the causal effect of online advertising at Facebook. We conclude that observational methods for estimating ad effectiveness may not work until advertising platforms log auction-specific features for modeling. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.07055&r= |
| By: | Sinning, Mathias; Zhang, Yinjunjie |
| Abstract: | Very little is known about the efficient collection of fines despite their indispensable contribution to local government budgets. This paper fills an important gap in the literature by studying the effectiveness of deterrence (enforcement) and non-deterrence (social norms) letters that aim to improve the collection of traffic and parking fines. We discuss potential mechanisms through which these letters may affect fine compliance and present results from a natural field experiment that was implemented in collaboration with the government of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We find that both letters increase fine payments significantly relative to a control group that did not receive a letter. The effect of the enforcement letter is stronger than that of the social norms letter. Our analysis of heterogenous treatment effects indicates that addressing social norms does not change the behavior of young offenders, those who committed a speeding offence, those with a long outstanding debt and those with a debt above the median. In contrast, the enforcement letter is generally effective across subgroups. |
| Keywords: | Fine compliance,natural field experiment,nudges,enforcement,social norms |
| JEL: | H26 K42 C93 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:900&r= |
| By: | Acconcia, Antonio; Beraldo, Sergio; Capuano, Carlo; Stimolo, Marco |
| Abstract: | We implement an experimental design based on a duopoly game in which subjects choose whether to cooperate in Research and Development (R&D) activities. We first conduct six experimental markets that differ in both the levels of knowledge spillovers and the intensity of competition. Consistently with the theory, we find that the probability of cooperation increases in the level of spillovers and decreases in that of market competition. We then replicate the experimental markets by providing subsidies to subjects who cooperate. Subsidies relevantly increase the probability of cooperation in focus markets, causing, however, a sensible reduction of R&D investments. Overall, our evidence suggests that, depending on the characteristics of the market, the use of public subsidies might be redundant, for firms would anyway joined their R&D efforts; or counterproductive, inducing firms to significantly reduce R&D investments compared to the non-cooperative scenario. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:317841&r= |
| By: | Itzhak Rasooly |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we design and implement an experiment aimed at testing the level-k model of auctions. We begin by asking which (simple) environments can best dis entangle the level-k model from its leading rival, Bayes-Nash equilibrium. We find two environments that are particularly suited to this purpose: an all-pay auction with uniformly distributed values, and a first-price auction with the possibility of cancelled bids. We then implement both of these environments in a virtual laboratory in order to see which theory can best explain observed bidding behaviour. We find that, when plausibly calibrated, the level-k model substantially under-predicts the observed bids and is clearly out-performed by equilibrium. Moreover, attempting to fit the level-k model to the observed data results in implausibly high estimated levels, which in turn bear no relation to the levels inferred from a game known to trigger level-k reasoning. Finally, subjects almost never appeal to iterated reasoning when asked to explain how they bid. Overall, these findings suggest that, despite its notable success in predicting behaviour in other strategic settings, the level-k model (and its close cousin cognitive hierarchy) cannot explain behaviour in auctions. |
| Date: | 2022–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:959&r= |
| By: | Lafortune, Jeanne; Pugatch, Todd; Tessada, José; Ubfal, Diego |
| Abstract: | We study the short-run effects of a gamified online entrepreneurship training offered to high school students in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a randomized controlled trial, we estimate sizeable effects of the 6-week training on entrepreneurial activity. One month after the training, participants in schools offered the training were much more likely to own a business than participants in control schools. The training induced students to participate more actively in their school's business club, to undertake more business-oriented actions, to improve their business practices, and to interact more with other youth and family members about their business ideas. We hypothesize that the training might have motivated treated students to sustain their business activities during the COVID-19 crisis. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1041&r= |
| By: | Daniela Di Cagno (LUISS Guido Carli); Werner Güth (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Tim Lohse (Berlin School of Economics and Law); Francesca Marazzi (CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Lorenzo Spadoni (University of Cassino and Southern Lazio) |
| Abstract: | In an ultimatum bargaining, we investigate lying as falsely stating what one privately knows without, however, excluding that others find out the truth. Specifically, we modify the Acquiring-a-Company game. Privately informed sellers send messages about the alleged value of their company to potential buyers. Via random information leaks, they can also learn the true value before proposing a price which the seller finally accepts or not. Two-thirds of all sellers exaggerate the company’s value (especially if the true value is small) but increasing the leak probability surprisingly only mildly increases truth telling. Instead, it reduces the size of the lies. Moreover, it decreases overreporting (exaggerating the value to sell at a higher price) but increases underreporting (stating values below the actual ones to increases chances of trade). Buyers who found out value misreporting anchor their price proposals on the true value but do not explicitly discriminate against liars. In contrast, sellers are fully opportunistic and make their acceptance decision mainly dependent on whether the resulting payoff is positive. Thus, morality concerns do not seem to matter much in this market exchange. Altogether probabilistic leaks enhance trade and welfare what suggests to politically facilitate and encourage e.g. whistle blowing. |
| Keywords: | Acquiring-a-company experiments, Information leaks, Cheap talk (Not) Lying, Ultimatum bargaining |
| JEL: | C78 C91 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:531&r= |
| By: | Christos Ioannou (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Miltiadis Makris (University of Kent [Canterbury]); Carmine Ornaghi (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | The present study proposes a theoretical model that investigates how R&D productivity influences the relationship between product substitutability and R&D investment in a duopolistic market. We argue that the effects on R&D investment are more complex than the previous literature suggests. We show theoretically that, in unlevelled industries, the laggard's R&D investment decreases with product substitutability regardless of the R&D productivity level. In sharp contrast, in levelled industries, whether R&D investment increases or decreases with product substitutability depends crucially on the level of the R&D productivity. We choose parameters and formulate testable predictions that we take to the laboratory. We find that subjects' behavior is largely consistent with the model's predictions. |
| Keywords: | Experiments,Product Substitutability,R&D Productivity,Duopoly |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03525445&r= |
| By: | Matteo M. Marini (Department of Public Economics, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a meta-analysis of experimental studies dealing with the impact of incidental emotions on risky choices, so as to explain traditional heterogeneity of outcomes in the literature. After devising a standard search strategy and filtering out studies that do not comply with a list of eligibility criteria, we include 24 articles from which 109 observations are drawn at the treatment level. At this point, we code a set of moderator variables representing experimental protocols and adopt Hedges’s g as comparable metric of effect size. Subgroup analysis and meta-regressions find causal impact of both sadness and fear on risk aversion, albeit to a small extent, as well as highly contrasting patterns depending on the nature of incentives offered in the experiments. The use of monetary incentives turns out to reduce data variability and affects information processing by making subjects more susceptible to emotions. When studies provide real stakes, our results also show that individualism moderates the relationship between emotions and risk attitude by increasing risk propensity. We discuss possible interpretations of our findings. |
| Keywords: | meta-analysis, experimental design, emotions, risky decision making, monetary incentives, individualism |
| JEL: | C90 C91 D81 D91 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/03&r= |
| By: | Matthew Kraft; John List; Jeffrey Livingston; Sally Sadoff |
| Abstract: | A substantial body of experimental evidence now demonstrates the large impacts that in-person tutoring programs can have on K-12 student achievement. This evidence has motivated interest in scaling tutoring across public schools to address COVID-19 learning disruptions and expand equitable access to individualized instruction. However, these efforts have faced two primary constraints: high program costs and limited local supply of tutors. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00746&r= |
| By: | César Mantilla (Universidad del Rosario); Zahra Murad (University of Portsmouth) |
| Abstract: | We study how individuals’ contribution to a team production task varies depending on whether the task is ego relevant or not. We design and conduct an experiment to test the effect of ego-relevance when the team output depends on the top- and the bottom-performer of the group. Ego-relevance is manipulated by calling the Raven IQ Test an “IQ Task” or a “Pattern Task”. We find that the contribution, which corresponds to an allocation of intended effort in the task, is affected by ego-relevance and the nature of the team production. However, both effects are mediated by the expected teammate’s contribution. Ego-relevance increases the responsiveness to the expected teammate’s behavior, a behavior that is also more noticeable when the team output depends on the bottom-performer. Nevertheless, we do not observe crossed-effects between ego-relevance and the nature of team production. |
| Keywords: | ego-relevance; experiment; team contribution; team production |
| JEL: | C90 D91 |
| Date: | 2022–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tilahun, Mesfin (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Sommervoll, Dag Einar (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We use a field experiment and a within-subject design based on multiple Choice Lists (CLs) that integrate time and risk. Diminishing impatience with extended time horizons is studied by varying time horizons from one week to two years. Time-dated risky prospects are constant within CLs and are always compared with time-dated certain amounts to identify time-dated Certainty Equivalents. Non-linear probability weighting is modeled with a 2-parameter Prelec function. First, we identify a strong diminishing impatience associated with longer time delay between prospects. Second, we test whether non-linear probability weighting can explain and reduce the observed diminishing impatience by replacing linear probability weighting with an estimated inverted S-shaped Prelec function. We find that this does not reduce the observed degree of diminishing impatience. We conclude that the observed diminishing impatience is neither explained by the combination of present bias and certainty bias nor by non-linear weighting of risk in future prospects. |
| Keywords: | Time preferences; Diminishing impatience; Risky preferences; Probability weighting; Field experiment; Within-subject design |
| JEL: | C93 D91 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2022_003&r= |
| By: | Jeroen Nieboer (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Salient social comparisons to peers are generally thought to increase people’s productive effort. But social comparisons can also become ends in themselves, with individuals seeking to outrank others by costly, non-productive means. This paper explores the motives behind such tendencies in the context of a real-effort task. We offer subjects the option of enhancing their relative position, at a cost to themselves, in a social comparison based on points earned on the task. Despite receiving no tangible benefits from enhancing their position, at least half of our subjects sacrifice some of their experimental earnings to do so. We find that information conditions are crucial: expenditure on positional enhancement is twice as high when social comparisons only occur after enhancement. Surprisingly, this effect is not driven by the visibility of subjects’ positional enhancement to peers; the increase is due to ex ante uncertainty over how one’s (unenhanced) task output compares to peers. Since many professional settings are characterized by uncertainty over peer output, these findings can help organizations identify positional enhancement and reduce its costs. |
| Keywords: | Social comparison; Status; Competition; Experiment |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2022-02&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Fabrice Murtin (OECD Statistics and Data Directorate); David Pipke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Louis Putterman (Brown University); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, University of Cologne, University of Innsbruck, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between political attitudes and prosociality in a survey of a representative sample of the U.S. population during the first summer of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that an experimental measure of prosociality correlates positively with adherence to protective behaviors. Liberal political ideology predicts higher levels of protective behavior than conservative ideology, independently of the differences in prosociality across the two groups. Differences between liberals and conservatives are up to 4.4 times smaller in their behavior than in judging the government’s crisis management. This result suggests that U.S. Americans are more polarized on ideological than behavioral grounds. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, Ideology, Trust in politicians, COVID-19, Prosociality, Health behavior, Worries |
| JEL: | D01 D72 D91 I12 I18 H11 H12 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:138&r= |
| By: | Schippers, Anouk L.; Soetevent, Adriaan R. |
| Abstract: | Informal peer-to-peer services to share or barter goods often succumb to free riding behavior because they lack the tools to enforce compliance and reciprocity. We collect unique quantitative data on a form of unregulated peer-to-peer in kind exchange that appears viable on an international scale: the exchange of books via little free libraries. We find surprisingly limited free riding in this market. Users return 9 books for every 10 taken. An incentivized survey identifies the presence of strong social norms and preferences for cooperation among owners and users as key behavioral primitives that can explain the observed high and stable level of reciprocal exchange. However, a small field experiment does not show that a positive supply shock of high-quality books generates a lasting impact on a library's book stock. |
| Keywords: | Peer-to-peer exchange,honor systems,free riding,social norms,altruistic preferences,sharing economy |
| JEL: | D49 H42 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:249448&r= |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Emla Fitzsimons (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Costas Meghir (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University); Marta Rubio Codina (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We examine the channels through which a randomized early childhood intervention in Colombia led to signi?cant gains in cognitive and socio-emotional skills among a sample of disavantaged children aged 12 to 24 months at baseline. We estimate the determinants of parents’ material and time investments in these children and evaluate the impact of the treatment on such investments. We then estimate the production functions for cognitive and socio-emotional skills. The effects of the program can be explained by increases in parental investments, emphasizing the importance of parenting interventions at an early age. |
| Date: | 2020–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/3&r= |
| By: | Sterkens, Philippe (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Moens, Eline (Ghent University); Derous, Eva (Ghent University); Wuyts, Joey (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | The existing burnout literature has predominantly focussed on the determinants of burnout, whereas its consequences for individual careers have received little attention. In this study, we investigate whether recently burned-out individuals and persons with a very high risk of clinical burnout differ in job preferences from non-burned-out workers. Moreover, we link these differences in preferences with (1) diverging perceptions of job demands and resources in a job, as well as (2) distinct weighting of such perceptions. To this end, a high-quality sample of 582 employees varying in their history and current risk of burnout judged fictitious job offers with experimentally manipulated characteristics in terms of their willingness to apply as well as perceived job demands and resources. We find that recently burned-out employees appreciate possibilities to telework and fixed feedback relatively more, while being relatively less attracted to opportunities for learning on the job. Moreover, employees with a very high risk of burnout are more attracted to part-time jobs. These findings can be partially explained by differences in the perceived resources offered by jobs. |
| Keywords: | burnout, labour market, job search, job preference, factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | J62 I12 C91 C83 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15044&r= |
| By: | Ferrara, Gerardo (Bank of England); Jurkatis, Simon (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants. |
| Keywords: | Non-standard errors; multi-analyst approach; liquidity |
| JEL: | C12 C18 G01 G14 |
| Date: | 2021–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0955&r= |
| By: | Matteo M. Marini (Department of Public Economics, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a follow-up investigation to the aggregate data meta-analysis by Marini (2021), the latter study being designed to detect what experimental protocols moderate the effect of emotions on risk-taking. Our work purports to check the robustness of Marini (2021)’s findings when gender is taken into account as a moderator, as well as to make a contribution to the debate about the role of national culture in risky decision making. The goal is pursued by pooling individual participant data from the subset of studies that make use of multiple price lists as risk elicitation method. We find that gender does not moderate the influence of emotions on risk propensity and we successfully replicate evidence that sadness promotes risk aversion, the use of financial incentives lowers data variability, and subjects take greater risks when studies are conducted in individualist countries. After ruling out the influence of emotions, we still find support for a positive link between individualism and risk-seeking. |
| Keywords: | meta-analysis, gender differences, emotion, risk-taking, individualism |
| JEL: | C91 D81 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/04&r= |
| By: | Augustine Denteh (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Helge Liebert (Department of Economics, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We provide new insights into the finding that Medicaid increased emergency department (ED) use from the Oregon experiment. Using nonparametric causal machine learning methods, we find economically meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity in the impact of Medicaid coverage on ED use. The effect distribution is widely dispersed, with significant positive effects concentrated among high-use individuals. A small group - about 14% of participants - in the right tail with significant increases in ED use drives the overall effect. The remainder of the individualized treatment effects is either indistinguishable from zero or negative. The average treatment effect is not representative of the individualized treatment effect for most people. We identify four priority groups with large and statistically significant increases in ED use - men, prior SNAP participants, adults less than 50 years old, and those with pre-lottery ED use classified as primary care treatable. Our results point to an essential role of intensive margin effects - Medicaid increases utilization among those already accustomed to ED use and who use the emergency department for all types of care. We leverage the heterogeneous effects to estimate optimal assignment rules to prioritize insurance applications in similar expansions. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.07072&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago and NBER); Georgy Egorov (Kellogg School of Management and NBER,); Ingar Haaland (University of Bergen and CESifo); Aakaash Rao (Harvard University); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters' causes can increase the public expression of dissent by providing a "social cover" for voicing otherwisestigmatized positions. Motivated by a simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals are more willing to post a Tweet opposing the movement to defund the police, are seen as less prejudiced, and face lower social sanctions when their Tweet implies they had first read scientific evidence supporting their position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate that the same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both the power of rationales and their limitations in enabling dissent and shed light on phenomena such as social movements, political correctness, propaganda, and anti-minority behavior. |
| Keywords: | Dissent; social image; rationales; social media |
| JEL: | D83 D91 P16 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:141&r= |
| By: | Klaus Abbink (Monash Business School, Australia); Lu Dong (Nanjing Audit University, China); Lingbo Huang (Nanjing Audit University, China) |
| Abstract: | The rise of a new power may lead the dominant power to seek a preventive war. We study this scenario in an experimental two-stage bargaining game. In each stage, the rising power makes a bargaining offer and the declining power must choose whether to accept it or fight. Between the two stages, the winning probability shifts towards the rising power. We find fewer preventive wars when the power shift is smaller and when the rising state has the commitment power. Communication and repeated interaction decrease the likelihood of preventive wars. High fighting costs almost eliminate such wars when the rising power’s first-stage offer is sufficiently large. |
| Keywords: | power shift, commitment, bargaining, conflict, communication |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Albert Menkveld (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Anna Dreber (Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics); Felix Holzmeister (University of Innsbruck - Department of Economics); Juergen Huber (University of Innsbruck); Magnus Johannesson (Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics); Michael Kirchler (University of Innsbruck); Sebastian Neusüss (Aalto University); Michael Razen (University of Innsbruck); Utz Weitzel (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Gunther Capelle-Blancard (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); David Abad-Díaz; Menachem Abudy; Tobias Adrian; Yacine Ait-Sahalia; Olivier Akmansoy; Jamie Alcock; Vitali Alexeev; Arash Aloosh; Livia Amato; Diego Amaya; James Angel; Alejandro Avetikian; Amadeus Bach; Edwin Baidoo; Gaetan Bakalli; Bao Li; Andrea Barbon; Oksana Bashchenko; Parampreet Bindra; Geir Bjønnes; Jeffrey Black; Bernard Black; Dimitar Bogoev; Santiago Bohorquez Correa; Oleg Bondarenko; Charles Bos; Ciril Bosch-Rosa; Elie Bouri; Christian Brownlees; Anna Calamia; Nga Cao; Laura Capera Romero; Massimiliano Caporin; Allen Carrion; Tolga Caskurlu; Bidisha Chakrabarty; Jian Chen; Mikhail Chernov; William Cheung; Ludwig Chincarini; Tarun Chordia; Sheung Chow; Benjamin Clapham; Jean-Edouard Colliard; Carole Comerton-Forde; Edward Curran; Thong Dao; Wale Dare; Ryan Davies; Riccardo de Blasis; Gianluca de Nard; Fany Declerck; Oleg Deev; Hans Degryse; Solomon Deku; Christophe Desagre; Mathijs van Dijk; Chukwuma Dim; Thomas Dimpfl; Yun Dong; Philip Drummond; Tom Dudda; Teodor Duevski; Ariadna Dumitrescu; Teodor Dyakov; Anne Dyhrberg; Michał Dzieliński; Asli Eksi; Izidin El Kalak; Saskia ter Ellen; Nicolas Eugster; Martin Evans; Michael Farrell; Ester Felez-Vinas; Gerardo Ferrara; El Ferrouhi; Andrea Flori; Jonathan Fluharty; Sean Foley; Kingsley Fong; Thierry Foucault; Tatiana Franus; Francesco Franzoni; Bart Frijns; Michael Frömmel; Servanna Fu; Sascha Füllbrunn; Baoqing Gan; Ge Gao; Thomas Gehrig; Roland Gemayel; Dirk Gerritsen; Javier Gil-Bazo; Dudley Gilder; Lawrence Glosten |
| Abstract: | In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants. |
| Keywords: | non-standard errors,multi-analyst approach,liquidity |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03500882&r= |
| By: | Philippos Louis (UCY - University of Cyprus); Matias Nunez (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Dimitrios Xefteris (UCY - University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | Collective choice mechanisms are used by groups to reach decisions in the presence of diverging preferences. But can the employed mechanism affect the degree of post-decision actual agreement (i.e. preference homogeneity) within a group? And if so, which are the features of the choice mechanisms that matter? Since it is difficult to address these questions in natural settings, we employ a theory-driven experiment where, after the group collectively decides on an issue, individual preferences can be properly elicited. We find that decision mechanisms that promote consensual behaviour generate substantially higher levels of post-decision actual agreement compared to outcome-wise identical procedures that incentivize subjects to exaggerate their differences. |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03324190&r= |
| By: | Amanda Chuan; John List; Anya Samek; Shreemayi Samujjwala |
| Abstract: | As early as middle school, girls self-select out of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) courses at greater rates than boys. Why? We link women's under-representation in STEM to their over-representation in nonSTEM fields. Prior work argues that this over-representation arises from women's comparative advantage in language arts, which emerges as early as age 5. A key question, therefore, is why might women have a comparative advantage in language arts? Since this advantage appears to arise early, early parental investments may play a role. As List et al. (2018) and others argue, parents play a central role in the development of child skills. In this paper, we use a longitudinal field experiment with 953 children and their parents to investigate whether there are differences in parental investments at early ages by child gender. We further investigate whether such investments are associated with test scores in math and language arts at older ages. We first survey parents on time spent teaching to children when they are 3-5 years old. We then collect data on Math and English test scores when children are 8-14 years old. Finally, we use a field experiment to explore whether early childhood interventions affect gender gaps in parental investments. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00744&r= |
| By: | Michal Soltes |
| Abstract: | Inconvenient information about the performance of public institutions may undermine public trust. In an experiment, I test how information about sentencing disparities among judges in the Czech Republic affects respondents’ perception of the judicial system. I find no effect on respondents’ declared institutional trust and willingness to rely on the formal judicial system. Instead, the information marginally increased respondents’ policy involvement: They became more likely to: (i) sign a petition that invites politicians to address the underlying issue, and (ii) consider fairness of the judicial system a more important policy issue. The increased interest in the petition was driven by mothers, who are arguably more sensitive to the particular treatment information in the presented case of a failure to pay alimony. |
| Keywords: | information disclosure; institutional trust; performance of public institutions; sentencing disparities; |
| JEL: | H11 H40 D02 D83 K40 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp718&r= |
| By: | Joshi, Megha; Pustejovsky, James E; Beretvas, S. Natasha |
| Abstract: | The most common and well-known meta-regression models work under the assumption that there is only one effect size estimate per study and that the estimates are independent. However, meta-analytic reviews of social science research often include multiple effect size estimates per primary study, leading to dependence in the estimates. Some meta-analyses also include multiple studies conducted by the same lab or investigator, creating another potential source of dependence. An increasingly popular method to handle dependence is robust variance estimation (RVE), but this method can result in inflated Type I error rates when the number of studies is small. Small-sample correction methods for RVE have been shown to control Type I error rates adequately but may be overly conservative, especially for tests of multiple-contrast hypotheses. We evaluated an alternative method for handling dependence, cluster wild bootstrapping, which has been examined in the econometrics literature but not in the context of meta-analysis. Results from two simulation studies indicate that cluster wild bootstrapping maintains adequate Type I error rates and provides more power than extant small sample correction methods, particularly for multiple-contrast hypothesis tests. We recommend using cluster wild bootstrapping to conduct hypothesis tests for meta-analyses with a small number of studies. We have also created an R package that implements such tests. |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:metaar:x6uhk&r= |
| By: | Stein, Merlin |
| Abstract: | Satellite data and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a powerful combination for analyzing causal effects beyond traditional survey-based indicators. The usage of remotely collected data for evaluating RCTs is cost-effective, objective and possible for anyone with treatment assignment data. By re-evaluating one of the largest RCTs - the smartcard intervention of Muralidharan et al. (2016) covering 20 million people - with Indian nighttime luminosity, this paper finds that nightlights as a specific type of satellite data likely often are too noisy to evaluate RCTs. Building upon a post-treatment and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we do not find any statistically significant effects of the biometric smartcards on nightlights, contrasting Muralidharan et al. (2017)'s results of higher income level in treated areas. This can be mainly explained either with the noisiness-caused inability of nightlights to specifically capture economic effects or the absence of an increased economic activity due to a simple redistributive effect of the intervention. The former is more likely when looking at GDP implications of the noisiness in the luminosity data. Per head estimates, sensitivity checks for spillovers, subdistrict-level instead of village-level observations and different time-wise aggregations of nightlight data do not lead to changed results. Although limited with nightlights, nonetheless, the potential for re-evaluating RCTs with satellite data in general is enormous in three ways: (1) For confirming claimed treatment effects, (2) to understand additional impacts and (3) for cost-effectively understanding long-term impacts of interventions. Using daytime imagery for analyzing RCTs is a promising direction for future research. |
| Keywords: | RCT,randomized,nightlight,daylight,satellite,remote-sensing,nighttimeluminosity,India,Census,Muralidharan,state capacity,GDP,nightlights |
| JEL: | C33 C81 C93 E01 H53 H55 I32 I38 J65 O47 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuewef:152&r= |