Abstract: |
Previous empirical studies of information cascades use either naturally
occurring data or laboratory experiments with student subjects. We combine
attractive elements from each of these lines of research by observing market
professionals from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in a controlled
environment. As a baseline, we compare their behavior to student choices in
similar treatments. We further examine whether, and to what extent, cascade
formation is influenced by both private signal strength and the quality of
previous public signals, as well as decision heuristics that differ from
Bayesian rationality. Analysis of over 1,500 individual decisions suggests
that CBOT professionals are better able to discern the quality of public
signals than their student counterparts. This leads to much different cascade
formation. Further, while the behavior of students is consistent with the
notion that losses loom larger than gains, market professionals are unaffected
by the domain of earnings. These results are important in both a positive and
normative sense. |