Abstract: |
This paper presents new evidence on the distribution of risk attitudes in the
population, using a novel set of survey questions and a representative sample
of roughly 22,000 individuals living in Germany. Using a question that asks
about willingness to take risks on an 11-point scale, we find evidence of
heterogeneity across individuals, and show that willingness to take risks is
negatively related to age and being female, and positively related to height
and parental education. We test the behavioral relevance of this survey
measure by conducting a complementary field experiment, based on a
representative sample of 450 subjects, and find that the measure is a good
predictor of actual risk-taking behavior. We then use a more standard lottery
question to measure risk preference, and find similar results regarding
heterogeneity and determinants of risk preferences. The lottery question makes
it possible to estimate the coefficient of relative risk aversion for each
individual in the sample. Using five questions about willingness to take risks
in specific domains - car driving, financial matters, sports and leisure,
career, and health - the paper also studies the impact of context on risk
attitudes, finding a strong but imperfect correlation across contexts. Using
data on a collection of risky behaviors from different contexts, including
traffic offenses, portfolio choice, smoking, occupational choice,
participation in sports, and migration, the paper compares the predictive
power of all of the risk measures. Strikingly, the general risk question
predicts all behaviors whereas the standard lottery measure does not. The best
overall predictor for any specific behavior is typically the corresponding
context-specific measure. These findings call into the question the current
preoccupation with lottery measures of risk preference, and point to variation
in risk perceptions as an understudied determinant of risky behavior. |
Keywords: |
risk preferences, preference stability, experimental validation, field experiment, SOEP, gender differences, age, height, subjective well-being |