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on Evolutionary Economics |
| By: | Yijia Chen |
| Abstract: | The integration of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Evolutionary Computation (EC) is frequently hypothesized to be the "Holy Grail" of algorithmic trading, promising systems that adapt autonomously to non-stationary market regimes. This paper presents a rigorous post-mortem analysis of "Galaxy Empire, " a hybrid framework coupling LSTM/Transformer-based perception with a genetic "Time-is-Life" survival mechanism. Deploying a population of 500 autonomous agents in a high-frequency cryptocurrency environment, we observed a catastrophic divergence between training metrics (Validation APY $>300\%$) and live performance (Capital Decay $>70\%$). We deconstruct this failure through a multi-disciplinary lens, identifying three critical failure modes: the overfitting of \textit{Aleatoric Uncertainty} in low-entropy time-series, the \textit{Survivor Bias} inherent in evolutionary selection under high variance, and the mathematical impossibility of overcoming microstructure friction without order-flow data. Our findings provide empirical evidence that increasing model complexity in the absence of information asymmetry exacerbates systemic fragility. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.15732 |
| By: | Oded Galor; Daniel C. Wainstock |
| Abstract: | Is income inequality in the United States primarily driven by disparities between ethnic groups or within them? The evidence reveals a striking pattern: 96% of U.S. income inequality arises from variation within groups sharing common ancestral origins, far overshadowing the comparatively small share attributable to differences between these groups. This pattern remains remarkably stable across time and regions. |
| JEL: | D63 J15 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34558 |
| By: | Anton Samokish; Valeriy Egorushkin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified framework in which economic dynamics is treated as evolutionary process analogous to those studied in natural sciences, including physics. Using methods from gauge field theory and plasticity, we show that the traditionally elusive influence of the invisible hand in economic markets can be made explicit and mathematically tractable. Derived equations demonstrate that market adaptation proceeds through localized nonlinear waves processes, closely resembling self-induced transparency in electrodynamics. Taken together, the results provide a physically grounded interpretation of the invisible hand as a real, dynamically operating field mechanism governed by choice, competition, and profit. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.15265 |
| By: | Mohamadali Berahman; Madjid Eshaghi Gordji |
| Abstract: | Trust is the invisible glue that holds together the fabric of societies, economic systems, and political institutions. Yet, its dynamics-especially in real-world settings remain unpredictable and difficult to control. While classical trust game models largely rely on discrete frameworks with limited noise, they fall short in capturing sudden behavioral shifts, extreme volatility, or abrupt breakdowns in cooperation.Here, we propose-for the first time a comprehensive stochastic model of trust based on L\'evy processes that integrates three fundamental components: Brownian motion (representing everyday fluctuations), Poissonian jump intensity (capturing the frequency of shocks), and random distributions for jump magnitudes. This framework surpasses conventional models by enabling simulations of phenomena such as "sudden trust collapse, " "chaotic volatility, " and "nonlinear recoveries" dynamics often neglected in both theoretical and empirical studies.By implementing four key simulation scenarios and conducting a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis via 3D and contour plots, we demonstrate that the proposed model is not only mathematically more advanced, but also offers a more realistic representation of human dynamics compared to previous approaches. Beyond its technical contributions, this study outlines a conceptual framework for understanding fragile, jump-driven behaviors in social, economic, and geopolitical systems-where trust is not merely a psychological construct, but an inherently unstable and stochastic variable best captured through L\'evy based modeling. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.00008 |
| By: | Soeren J. Henn; James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | We provide an overview of the explanations for the relative lack of state formation historically in Africa. In doing so we systematically document for the first time the extent to which Africa was politically decentralized, calculating that in 1880 there were probably 45, 000 independent polities which were rarely organized on ethnic lines. At most 2% of these could be classified as states. We advance a new argument for this extreme political decentralization positing that African societies were deliberately organized to stop centralization emerging. In this they were successful. We point out some key aspects of African societies that helped them to manage this equilibrium. We also emphasize how the organization of the economy was subservient to these political goals. |
| JEL: | D7 N47 O55 P5 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34546 |