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on Evolutionary Economics |
| By: | Giuseppe De Marco (University of Napoli Parthenope and CSEF and Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II); Maria Romaniello (University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli.); Alba Roviello (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Napoli Federico II.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how guilt aversion affects the equilibria of symmetric 2×2 games with the same Nash equilibrium structure as the Hawk–Dove game: two asymmetric strict pure equilibria and one completely mixed-strategy equilibrium. We classify these generalized Hawk–Dove games into two subclasses, Type 1 and Type 2, based on players’ preferences over deviations toward symmetric profiles. We characterize best-reply correspondences and equilibria under guilt aversion, showing that outcomes are highly sensitive to guilt parameters. In Type 1 games, when guilt sensitivity exceeds a threshold, a new symmetric equilibrium emerges while the mixed-strategy equilibrium disappears. In Type 2 games, guilt aversion affects only the mixed equilibrium, leaving the two asymmetric equilibria unchanged. |
| Keywords: | Hawk-Dove games, equilibria, guilt aversion, psychological games, ambiguous beliefs. |
| JEL: | D81 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:756 |
| By: | Omenti, Riccardo; Alexander, Monica; Barban, Nicola |
| Abstract: | A growing number of social scientists use online genealogical data as an alternative digital census of historical populations for the examination of past demographic dynamics. However, the non-representativeness of this data source requires the development of bias-adjusting methods to obtain accurate demographic estimates. We address this challenge by proposing an indirect estimation framework to investigate fertility trends in seven European countries and the United States of America for the historical period 1751-1910, integrating data from the big genealogical database FamiLinx with more traditional data sources. The proposed methods produce total fertility rate (TFR) estimates using minimal data, specifically women aged 15-49 and children under age 5, while accounting for child mortality, age-specific fertility patterns, and biases inherent in online genealogical data. Our methodological approaches demonstrate that, when combined with reliable demographic data, online genealogical data can be fruitfully used to examine fertility patterns in countries and historical periods lacking well-functioning national civil registration systems. |
| Date: | 2025–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ygt2k_v1 |
| By: | Fix, Blair |
| Abstract: | A good way to think about human history is that it has two distinct scales. On the small scale we have the churn of daily events — the stuff of endless individual exploits. And on the large scale, we have the long-term evolution of human societies — a scale so sweeping that the actions of individuals are as insignificant as the shifting grains of desert sand. The task of social science is to somehow connect these two scales — to show how the characters of history act on a stage that they do not fully control. *** Looking at the present political spectacle, it’s clear that the world order is changing. In a matter of months, Donald Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the US-led regime that reigned since the end World War II. But here is an interesting question: if Trump had not been re-elected, to what extent would things be different? *** The answer depends on our choice of scale. In a world without Trump, the eddies of small-scale history would surely be altered. There would be no ‘department of government efficiency’, for example. Nor would their likely be an unfolding US-led trade war. But on the scale of long-term history, many tides would remain the same. Chief among them would be the inexorable decline of US empire. To put things bluntly, the ‘American century’ is over and will never return. |
| Keywords: | Britain, empire, energy, imperialism, United States |
| JEL: | P1 P5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:323309 |
| By: | Raquel Fernández |
| Abstract: | Culture’s influence on economic outcomes is no longer controversial among economists even if it remains largely ignored in many areas of economics. This paper tackles a different question: why does culture change? The underlying premise adopted here is that culture changes because incentives change, transforming actions and beliefs. An idiosyncratic review of the literature follows that illustrates how the environment (e.g., the prevalence of pathogens or the suitability of land for pastoralism) and historical experiences (e.g., colonization, war, or migration) can affect relationships of power in society and shape people’s beliefs. It then examines the role of new information and ideas (i.e., learning) and finally the role of policies in shaping incentives and changing culture. A second part of the paper reviews work that models the mechanisms of cultural change more explicitly, using quantitative models to examine the interplay between economic incentives and evolving beliefs or preferences and to study the importance of intermediating mechanisms. Given that one of the most profound cultural and economic transformations of the past 150 years concerns gender roles, this theme recurs throughout. |
| JEL: | P0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34077 |
| By: | Oded Galor (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity, driven the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory sheds light on two of the most fundamental mysteries surrounding this journey: (i) The Mystery of Growth—the origins of the dramatic transformation in human prosperity over the past two centuries, in the wake of millennia of near stagnation; and (ii) The Mystery of Inequality—the roots of the vast inequality in the wealth of nations. The theory suggests that forces operating in the distant past are central to the understanding of the uneven development across the globe and the design of effective policies that could promote economic growth and mitigate inequality. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Inequality, Unified Growth Theory, Human Capital, Demographic Transition, Malthusian epoch |
| JEL: | I25 J10 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2528 |