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on Evolutionary Economics |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8uxd4&r= |
| By: | Omar Al-Ubaydli; Faith Fatchen; John List |
| Abstract: | Field experiments are a useful empirical tool that can be deployed in any sub-discipline - including institutional economics - to enhance the sub-discipline's empirical insights. However, we here argue that there exist fundamental barriers to the use of field experiments in understanding the impact of institutions on economic growth. Despite these obstacles, we present some significant scholarly contributions that merit exposition, while also proposing some future methods for using field experiments within institutional economics. While field experiments may be limited in answering questions in institutional economics with macroeconomic outcomes, there is great potential in employing field experiments to answer micro founded questions. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00787&r= |
| By: | Kevin Xin; Lizhi Xin |
| Abstract: | Forecasting, to estimate future events, is crucial for business and decision-making. This paper proposes QxEAI, a methodology that produces a probabilistic forecast that utilizes a quantum-like evolutionary algorithm based on training a quantum-like logic decision tree and a classical value tree on a small number of related time series. By using different cycles of the Dow Jones Index (yearly, monthly, weekly, daily), we demonstrate how our methodology produces accurate forecasts while requiring little to none manual work. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.03701&r= |
| By: | Robert Akerlof (University of Warwick); Richard Holden (UNSW Business School); Hongyi Li (UNSW Business School) |
| Abstract: | In the early 20th century, Gestalt psychologists seriously challenged prevailing notions regarding human perception. They showed that there is a difference between seeing the pixels that make up a picture and understanding what a picture represents. We have all had that “aha” moment, for instance, where a scene suddenly becomes clear (e.g. “oh, it’s a smiley face”). The more general point is that people may have all of the information needed to draw a conclusion yet---in contrast to standard economic models---they fail to connect the dots. We build a model that conceptualizes this idea. An agent’s task is to learn whether a picture possesses some feature (such as whether it depicts a smiley face). They have a knowledge set consisting of “codewords” that they think apply to the picture. This set initially contains codewords for each pixel’s color, but no codewords describing the larger picture. The agent adds to their knowledge set by loading existing codewords into working memory and drawing conclusions. Importantly, the agent has limited working memory, which bounds their ability to draw conclusions. We show that the model captures a number of important phenomena, such as multi-stable perception, and provides a useful conceptualization of narratives as “big-picture statements.” We explore several applications, including to the politics of persuasion. |
| Keywords: | cognition, reasoning, perception, narratives |
| JEL: | D01 D80 D90 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2024-02&r= |
| By: | Jonathan J Adams (Department of Economics, University of Florida) |
| Abstract: | The Behavioral Expectations Equilibrium Toolkit (BEET) is a toolkit for solving stochastic dynamic macroeconomic models with behavioral expectations in MATLAB. BEET itself is not a model-solver; for that task, it uses existing methods. Rather, BEET is a wrapper that transforms a behavioral expectations model into one that can be solved using tools designed for rational expectations. |
| JEL: | C60 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ufl:wpaper:001012&r= |
| By: | Kazumi Shimizu (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Rongyu Hu (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how ego utility influences decision making and shows that the desire to maintain or enhance one’s self-image can lead to the avoidance of useful information if it conflicts with existing beliefs. It challenges the traditional economic view of purely rational decision making focused on economic gain by incorporating ego utility into expected utility theory. The study provides theoretical evidence on how ego utility affects information processing and decision-making, suggesting that self-esteem plays a significant role. This work enriches the field of behavioural economics by shedding light on the reasons behind individuals’ reluctance to seek relevant information, highlighting the complex relationship between ego utility and information seeking behaviour. |
| Keywords: | ego utility; Bayesian updating; beta distribution |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2403&r= |
| By: | Chengyi Tu; Fabio Menegazzo; Paolo D'Odorico; Samir Suweis |
| Abstract: | The management of common-pool resources is a complex challenge due to the risk of overexploitation and the tragedy of the commons. A novel framework has been introduced to address this issue, focusing on the coevolutionary relationship between human behavior and common-pool resources within a human-environment system. However, the impact of the Allee effect on the coevolution and its resource sustainability is still unexplored. The Allee effect, a biological phenomenon characterized by a correlation between resource availability and growth rate, is a fundamental attribute of numerous natural resources. In this paper, we introduce two coevolutionary models of resource and strategy under replicator dynamics and knowledge feedback by applying the Allee effect to the common-pool resources within human-environment system. These models encapsulate various facets of resource dynamics and the players' behavior, such as resource growth function, the extraction rates, and the strategy update rules. We find that the Allee effect can induce bi-stability and critical transition, leading to either sustainable or unsustainable outcomes depending on the initial condition and parameter configuration. We demonstrate that knowledge feedback enhances the resilience and sustainability of the coevolving system, and these results advances the understanding of human-environment system and management of common-pool resources. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01271&r= |