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on Evolutionary Economics |
| By: | Matthew J. Delventhal (Claremont McKenna College); Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | The demographic transition -the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain, the technological leader. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a strong correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data. |
| Keywords: | Demographic transition, skill-biased technological change, diffusion. |
| JEL: | J13 N3 O11 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2402&r=evo |
| By: | Rönnbäck, Klas (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Galli, Theodoridis, (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Theodoridis, Dimitrios (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Faust Larsen, Kathrine (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | It has been proposed that slave societies were the most unequal societies in recorded human history. What little evidence there is shows an ambiguous picture. We contribute with a study on the wealth distribution in a Caribbean society, based on individual-level data for the full population, combining tax and census records into the largest comparable historical dataset from the Global South. Our results show a distribution of wealth shockingly close to perfect inequality. Our results also show a remarkable degree of persistence: even after slavery was abolished, the freedmen never managed to accumulate physical wealth to any measurable degree. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; wealth; slavery; Caribbean; emancipation; long-term |
| JEL: | D31 J47 N36 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0035&r=evo |
| By: | Lisa Bruttel (University of Potsdam, CEPA); Vasilisa Petrishcheva (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study one channel through which communication may facilitate cooperative behavior – belief precision. In a prisoner’s dilemma experiment, we show that communication not only makes individuals more optimistic that their partner will cooperate but also increases the precision of this belief, thereby reducing strategic uncertainty. To disentangle the shift in mean beliefs from the increase in precision, we elicit beliefs and precision in a two-stage procedure and in three situations: without communication, before communication, and after communication. We find that the precision of beliefs increases during communication. |
| Keywords: | prisoner’s dilemma, communication, beliefs, strategic uncertainty, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:74&r=evo |
| By: | Cavve, Blake Stockton; Hurlstone, Mark J.; Farrell, Simon |
| Abstract: | Several distinct strategies or motivations have been proposed in order to characterise the ways in which people compare themselves to others, and how such information influences the decisions they make. Among the most studied type of social preference is inequality aversion, which describes a preference for equal outcomes for all group members, usually with a particular dislike for doing worse than others. A second, rank-status, describes the tendency to focus on the ordinal position (rather than the magnitude) of outcomes and the desire to rank higher than others in outcome standings. Though these competing forms of social preference describe very different psychological processes, these theories do—under certain circumstances—generate identical predictions. To accurately assess how people use information about others in decision-making, these theories must be deliberately, directly, and carefully disentangled. This paper presents two studies in which we competitively test these models of social preference as well as self-interest. We construct social utility curves from a series of satisfaction ratings of allocations for the self and one peer (Study 1) and two peer (Study 2) reference points. In both studies we find some heterogeneity expressed in preferences regarding distribution of several different attributes. Overall, a consistent plurality of participants are best fit by the Fehr and Schmidt inequality aversion model compared to mean reference fairness models and rank-based preference models; though a lesser proportion than found elsewhere in the literature (i.e., without comparison against competing models). Surprisingly, this preference is also prominent in considerations of vacation time, a leisure attribute assumed to be unaffected by social judgement. The results highlight both discrete and continuous individual differences in the form of social preference. |
| Date: | 2024–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qkcm6&r=evo |
| By: | David K Levine |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000001843&r=evo |