nep-evo New Economics Papers
on Evolutionary Economics
Issue of 2017‒09‒24
four papers chosen by
Matthew Baker
City University of New York

  1. Aggregating the Fertility Transition: Intergenerational Dynamics in Quality and Quantity By Tom Vogl
  2. An Evolutionary approach to International Environmental Agreements By Tiziano Distefano; Simone D'Alessandro
  3. Evolutionary game approach on fixed-mobile market By Ikematsu, Nariaki
  4. Agent-Based Modeling’s Open Methodology Approach: Simulation, Reflexivity, and Abduction By Davis, John B.

  1. By: Tom Vogl (Princeton University, BREAD, and NBER)
    Abstract: Fertility change is distinct from other forms of social and economic change because it directly alters the size and composition of the next generation. This paper studies how changes in population composition over the fertility transition feed back into the evolution of average fertility across generations. Theory predicts that changes in the relationship between human capital and fertility first weaken and then strengthen fertility similarities between mothers and daughters, a process that first promotes and then restricts aggregate fertility decline. Consistent with these predictions, microdata from 40 developing countries over the second half of the 20th century show that intergenerational fertility associations strengthen late in the fertility transition, due to the alignment of the education-fertility relationship across generations. As fertility approaches the replacement level, the strengthening of these associations reweights the population to raise aggregate fertility rates, pushing back against aggregate fertility decline.
    JEL: J10 O10 O40
    Date: 2017–01
  2. By: Tiziano Distefano (Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Simone D'Alessandro (Department of Economics and Management, Università di Pisa, Italy)
    Abstract: Our work contributes to explain the observation of two facts at odds: the number of signatories of international environmental agreements (IEA) has grown in time, meanwhile, the aggregate global level of greenhouse gas emissions is increasing at exponential rate. We introduce a novel multi-scale framework, composed by two tied games, to show under which conditions a country is able to fulfill the IEA: an Evolutionary Game which describes the economic structure through the interaction of households and rms' strategies; and a 2x2 one-shot Game, with asymmetric nations that negotiate on the maximum share of emissions. The distance between international environmental targets and country's emissions performances is explained in terms of heterogeneous economic structure, without the need to impose any free-riding behaviour. Consumer's environmental consciousness (micro level) together with global income (and technological) inequality (macro level), are found to be the key variables towards the green transition path. We provide analytical results paired with numerical simulations.
    Keywords: International environmental agreements, asymmetry, evolutionary process, Multi-level perspective, climate change
    JEL: C71 C72 C73 H41 F53 Q20
    Date: 2017–09
  3. By: Ikematsu, Nariaki
    Abstract: Lotka-Volterra equations which equivalent to the replicator equation in evolutionary game theory under mathematical dynamic ecosystem model will provide the new basic behavior of network services. The FTTH-DSL market in Japan shifted from the co-existence model of horizontal market to the Winner-Takes-All model of FTTH. This model also shows that the fixed-mobile market in Thai and Japan have the model of the bi-stable model. This report also submits some data and materials to start discussing the new future infrastructure. The parameters of Lotka-Volterra equations are also dynamic. If parameter is constant the market does not have any innovation. It means that the survival-of-the-fittest world does not have any innovation.
    Keywords: Evolutionary game,Lotka-Volterra equations,fixed-mobile market
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Davis, John B. (Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: This paper argues that agent-based modeling’s innovations in method developed in terms of simulation techniques also involve an innovation in economic methodology. It shows how Epstein’s generative science conception departs from conventional methodological reasoning, and employs what I term an open rather than closed approach to economic methodology associated with the roles that reflexivity, counterfactual reasoning, and abduction play in ABM. Central to this idea is that improvements in how we know something, a matter of method, determine whether we know something, a matter of methodology. The paper links this alternative view of economics and economic methodology to a social science model of economics and contrasts this with standard economics’ natural science model of economics. The paper discusses what this methodological understanding implies about the concept of emergence.
    Keywords: agent-based modeling, simulation, generative science, reflexivity, abduction, social science model of economics, emergence
    JEL: A12 B41 C63
    Date: 2017–09

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