|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Michaela Kreyenfeld; Sarah Schmauk; Katharina Wrohlich; Daniel Brüggmann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gendered impact of divorce on earnings and the role of the social policy context in shaping this relationship. In particular, it focuses on a policy reform enacted in Germany in 2008 that overturned previous ex-spousal support rules. Data come from the administrative records of the German Public Pension Fund. Drawing on a fixed- effects model, we study the behaviour of women and men who separated between 2004 and 2011 (n=21, 617 divorces). We find that women's earnings increased throughout the divorce process. This effect was slightly more pronounced after the reform than before. In contrast to women's earnings, men's earnings declined throughout the divorce process. The reform seems to have somewhat mitigated this negative divorce effect. The paper also shows heterogeneous effects across regions. While divorce had strong effects on women's and men's earnings in West Germany, it did not change the earning patterns of East German men and women either before or after the reform. The paper concludes by discussing avenues for post- separation policies from a gender perspective. |
| Keywords: | Divorce, earnings, employment, gender, policy reform |
| JEL: | J12 J22 K36 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2125 |
| By: | Carole Bonnet; Léa Dubreuil (CREST-ENSAE); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST-ENSAE-Institut Polytechnique Paris, and CEPR); Pierre Pora |
| Abstract: | Using a rich administrative dataset representative of the French population, we study the causal impact of the first childbirth on the within-couple inequality in France. We find that women’s contribution to total household income 5 years after the birth of their first child is 16% lower than what it would have been absent children. Both partners experience an income loss after childbirth, driven by a decline in working hours. However, the drop is much larger for women: 23% for women and 4% for men five years after childbirth. The drop in woman’s contribution to total household income after childbirth is more pronounced for women with a higher contribution to couple’s income before childbirth. This is both because the child penalty is higher for these women compared to others, and because their partners experience the largest increase in income following childbirth compared to other partners. Moreover, heterogeneous responses across couples reshape the entire distribution of withincouple inequality, notably through a sharp decline in the share of egalitarian couples, while the share of female-breadwinner couples slightly decreases but remains closed to its already low level. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, gender inequality, within-couple inequality, gender norms, marital specialization. |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 J22 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2025-08 |
| By: | Lesman Ghazaryan (EESC-GEM Grenoble Ecole de Management, USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Corinne Faure (EESC-GEM Grenoble Ecole de Management); Joachim Schleich (EESC-GEM Grenoble Ecole de Management, Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft - Fraunhofer); Mia M. Birau (EM - EMLyon Business School) |
| Abstract: | Pay-As-You-Throw (PAYT) tariff schemes, in which households pay based on their waste generation, are proposed as solutions to the growing worldwide challenge of municipal solid waste management. However, public acceptance of such schemes remains low. Using a one-factor between-subject experimental survey design with 620 participants, we test the effects of environmental and accountability appeals and of individual characteristics in shaping preferences for a proposed PAYT scheme in Grenoble, France. We find a positive effect of the accountability appeal and no effect of the environmental appeal on preference for the PAYT scheme compared to a fixed-fee scheme. Additional analyses suggest that accountability appeals are particularly effective for individuals with below-median age, above-median income, and at least a master's degree, indicating that policymakers should target younger and educated citizens with these appeals in PAYT campaigns. Future research could test the applicability of these findings in other settings and for other waste-related interventions. |
| Keywords: | Pay-as-you-throw, Unit pricing of waste, Waste management, Communication strategies, Public acceptability, Survey experiment |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-05083048 |
| By: | Vincent Vandenberghe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | The primary policy response to population ageing in advanced economies has been to raise the mandatory retirement age. However, these policies have reignited calls for differentiated retirement ages that take into account variations in work intensity. This paper utilises microdata to examine the relevance and feasibility of this concept in Europe. It first quantifies career arduousness using SHARE wave 7 retrospective ISCO4-digit data on careers in combination with US O*NET working conditions data. Then, using SHARE follow-up data collecting (bad)health and death information about wave 7 respondents, it estimates (healthy) life expectancy by career arduousness decile, combining econometrics and life table methods. Findings reveal a life expectancy gap between the least and most arduous careers of 4 to 4.2 years. Healthy life expectancy differences are slightly larger, ranging from 6.9 to 9.1 years. Also, women’s healthy life expectancy seems to be somewhat more impacted by arduousness. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, Career arduousness, (Healthy) life expectancy, Retirement Policy |
| JEL: | J14 I1 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025009 |
| By: | Sarah Bernhard; Sandra Bohmann; Susann Fiedler; Maximilian Kasy; Jürgen Schupp; Frederik Schwerter |
| Abstract: | How does basic income (a regular, unconditional, guaranteed cash transfer) impact labor supply? We show that in search models of the labor market with income effects, this impact is theoretically ambiguous: Employment and job durations might increase or decrease, match surplus might be shifted to workers or employers, and worker surplus might be reallocated between wages and job amenities. We thus turn to empirical evidence to study this impact. We conducted a pre-registered RCT in Germany, starting 2021, where recipients received 1200 Euro/month for three years. We draw on both administrative and survey data, and find no extensive margin (employment) response, and no impact on on job transitions from either non-employment or employment. We do find a small statistically insignificant intensive margin shift to part-time employment, which implies an excess burden (reduction of government revenues) of ca 7.5% of the transfer. We furthermore observe a small increase of enrollment in training or education. |
| Keywords: | basic income, randomized controlled trial, labor supply |
| JEL: | I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11940 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Anamaria Diana Sova; Robert Sova |
| Abstract: | This study provides new panel evidence on the effects on climate risk on financial stability in the European banking sector using yearly data over the period 2000-2021. More specifically, the impact of a number of climate risk indices on the Z-score (capturing the probability of default of a country’s banking system) is assessed after controlling for various macro and bank-related factors. The estimation is carried out using the GMM method. The analysis is also performed for two subsets of countries, namely EU (European Union) and non-EU ones. Finally, the role of governance quality is investigated. The results suggest that higher emissions growth tends to be associated with lower Z-scores, which indicate lower financial stability. However, the size of this effect differs between EU and non-EU European countries, suggesting that differences in policies, regulatory environments, and economic structures may influence how emissions growth affects financial stability across these areas. Our analysis also shows that the climate risk–financial stability relationship is affected by the quality of governance since the WGI (World Governance Index) does not appear to have a mitigating effect in non-EU countries with poorer governance. |
| Keywords: | climate risk, financial stability, Z-score, Europe, panel data, GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator |
| JEL: | C33 G12 G18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11958 |
| By: | Fontana, S.;; Guccio, C.;; Pignataro, G.;; Vidoli, F.; |
| Abstract: | The quality of institutions is widely recognized as a fundamental determinant of public sector performance across various levels of governance. In this paper, we investigate the role of institutional quality in shaping the resilience of Italian municipalities during the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we introduce a novel non-parametric approach to construct a resilience index based on historical mortality data, which serves as a counterfactual benchmark, estimated at the local level, for assessing pandemic-related outcomes. This methodology enables a more nuanced and context-specific measurement of resilience. We apply the index to municipal-level mortality data in Italy from 2004 to 2023 to evaluate the heterogeneous ability of municipalities to withstand and recover from the pandemic crisis. By linking this resilience index with detailed municipal-level indicators of institutional quality, we find that higher institutional quality is strongly associated with greater resilience in managing the crisis. Moreover, when disentangling the specific components of institutional quality, we identify the quality of local politicians as the most significant factor driving differential performance. Our results are robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | institutional quality; health sector resilience; resilience indices; interrupted time series; extreme gradient boosting; |
| JEL: | I18 C43 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:25/06 |
| By: | Piero Basaglia; Sophie M. Behr; Moritz A. Drupp |
| Abstract: | We investigate how fuel taxation reduces climate and pollution externalities by evaluating the world’s largest environmental tax reform. Using spatially detailed emissions data from more than 1, 000 European regions in a synthetic difference-in-differences framework, we evaluate the impact of Germany’s 1999 ecological tax reform on transport-related carbon and air pollutant emissions. We document sizable aggregate reductions for all emissions, exceeding 10 percent on average per year relative to synthetic baselines. Using official damage valuations, we estimate avoided external costs of more than €100 billion, two-thirds of which stem from health benefits due to reduced air pollution. Emission reductions and associated monetized benefits are larger in lower-income regions, contrasting with a slightly regressive distribution of fuel costs. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating air quality co-benefits when evaluating the efficiency and distributional effects of fuel and carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | environmental policy, externalities, fuel tax, carbon tax, synthetic difference-in-differences, tax elasticity, climate, pollution |
| JEL: | Q58 H23 I18 R48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11949 |
| By: | Isabella Buber-Ennser; Caroline Berghammer; Maria Winkler-Dworak |
| Abstract: | At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, divorce rates across European countries significantly declined and remained low through 2023. This sustained low level is notable, especially given the potential for a rebound in postponed divorces. This study examines partnership dissolution in Austria from 2018 to 2023, covering the pandemic and a subsequent period of high inflation. It specifically investigates the role of socioeconomic and family characteristics. The analysis draws on 24 quarterly waves from the Austrian Labour Force Surveys, focusing on cohabiting and married couples aged 20 to 54 (n=32, 913 couples). Households participated in five consecutive quarters. Changes in partnership status across waves were analysed using random effects logistic panel regression models. The dissolution of partnerships sharply declined during the pandemic (2020-22) and remained at a lower level throughout the period of high inflation (2022-23). The risk of separation decreased most significantly in two groups: couples without children (compared to those with children, especially two or more) and couples with low to medium education levels. We interpret the less pronounced decline in dissolution risk among parents as an indication of greater strain, particularly due to work-family conflicts. Additionally, the reduced rate of union dissolutions among low- and medium-educated couples likely reflects financial challenges in setting up a second household, exacerbated by inflation and rising living costs. The economic barriers to partnership dissolution may be considered a social problem. |
| Keywords: | Separation, union dissolution, divorce, COVID-19, pandemic, inflation, Austria |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vid:wpaper:2403 |
| By: | Erwan Gautier; Frédérique Savignac; Olivier Coibion |
| Abstract: | Using a new survey of French firms’ inflation expectations that predates the inflation spike, we document i) evidence on the anchoring of inflation expectations during the inflation surge, and ii) the relevance of inflation expectations for firms’ decisions. First, we show that inflation expectations under-responded to the initial surge but then persistently overshot actual inflation dynamics. As inflation rose, firms initially perceived inflation to be less persistent than in previous years, an effect that dissipated over time. Second, we find that inflation expectations correlate with firms’ wage and price decisions. One-year expectations matter more than long-term expectations. During the inflation surge, wage and price decisions became increasingly disconnected from inflation expectations. This suggests that the scope for wage-price spirals is likely more limited than one might have expected from the surge in inflation and inflation expectations. |
| JEL: | E30 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33799 |
| By: | Kalantzis, Fotios; Kesidou, Effie; Ri, Anastasia; Roper, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how firms navigate the dual challenges of digitalisation and climate change. Our comprehensive approach considers climate change strategies, distinguishing adaptation-only, mitigation-only and 'dual' adaptation and mitigation strategies. Drawing on theoretical insights from the literature on digital affordances, we argue that digitalisation enables firms to recognise better the opportunities and risks associated with climate change. These affordances significantly influence strategic decisions regarding adaptation, mitigation, or a combination of both, ultimately impacting the intensity of their implementation efforts. To empirically examine these dynamics, we analyse data from the 2022 and 2023 European Investment Bank Investment Survey waves. Our sample includes over 24, 000 firms, spanning small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large businesses across 27 EU Member States and the USA. Our results reveal that firms with higher digitalisation are more likely to adopt a 'dual' strategy that combines mitigation and adaptation efforts rather than pursuing a single climate strategy or no climate response. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between digitalisation and climate action intensity across mitigation and adaptation measures. Importantly, these patterns hold consistently across different sectors and firm sizes. Overall, our study sheds light on the critical role of digital technologies in shaping firms' climate responses, emphasising the need for organisations to leverage their technological strengths to address environmental challenges effectively. |
| Keywords: | Business, Strategic management, Digitalization, Climate change, Climate protection, Environmental management, EU countries, USA |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:319607 |
| By: | Schüler, Ruth M.; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Erreichen gesetzlich Rentenversicherte 35 oder 45 Jahre an anrechenbaren Zeiten, dürfen diese Personen ab einem Alter von 63 Jahren oder maximal zwei Jahre vor ihrer individuellen Regelaltersgrenze vorzeitig, das heißt früher als zu ihrer individuellen Regelaltersgrenze, ihre Altersrente beziehen. Personen mit 35 Jahren anrechenbarer Zeiten sind langjährig versichert und müssen bei vorzeitigem Rentenbezug Abschläge auf ihren bis dahin erreichten Rentenanspruch in Kauf nehmen. Nach einer Versichertenzeit von 45 Jahren wird die vorgezogene Rente besonders langjährig Versicherten abschlagsfrei gewährt. Die Altersrente für besonders langjährig Versicherte wird häufig noch "Rente mit 63" genannt, obwohl das Mindestalter für den Bezug einer vorzeitigen, abschlagsfreien Rente schrittweise angehoben wird und mit Vollendung der Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze im Jahr 2031 65 Jahre betragen wird. Der Gesetzgeber hat die Hinzuverdienstgrenze für langjährig und besonders langjährig Versicherte seit 2020 zweimal befristet erhöht und zum Jahresbeginn 2023 endgültig abgeschafft. Ziel der Reformen ist es, die Erwerbstätigkeit dieser beiden Rentengruppen auszuweiten und damit demografisch bedingte Fachkräfteengpässe zu dämpfen. Vor den Reformen galt eine geringfügige Beschäftigung für (besonders) langjährig Versicherte als finanziell attraktiv, da bei einer Beschäftigung über diesen Umfang hinaus ein sozialversicherungspflichtiger Hinzuverdienst zu 40 Prozent mit der Altersrente verrechnet wurde. Dennoch arbeitete schon in den Jahren 2018 und 2019 ein kleiner Anteil der (besonders) langjährig Versicherten neben der Rente über eine geringfügige Beschäftigung hinaus und nahm die Anrechnung des Hinzuverdiensts auf die Altersrente in Kauf. Im Folgenden wird diese Beschäftigung neben der Rente als großer Hinzuverdienst bezeichnet. In dieser Analyse werden die drei Reformschritte als ein natürliches Experiment verstanden, bei welchem die Betroffenengruppen aus (besonders) langjährig Versicherten mit der Gruppe der Regelaltersrentnerinnen und -rentner verglichen werden. Bei den besonders langjährig versicherten Frauen, welche erstmals eine Altersrente bezogen, stieg der Anteil mit großem Hinzuverdienst von 2019 (vor den Reformen) auf 2023 (nach den Reformen) um 14, 1 Prozentpunkte. Der Anstieg bei den Regelaltersrentnerinnen, welche schon vor den Reformen unbegrenzt hinzuverdienen konnten, betrug im gleichen Zeitraum lediglich 2, 3 Prozentpunkte. Aus dem Vergleich der von der Reform betroffenen Gruppe der besonders langjährig Versicherten Frauen mit der nicht betroffenen Gruppe der Regelaltersrentnerinnen ergibt sich die sogenannte doppelte Differenz von 11, 8 Prozentpunkten. Bei den besonders langjährig versicherten Männern stieg im gleichen Zeitraum der Anteil der Rentner mit großem Hinzuverdienst um 12, 1 Prozentpunkte gegenüber der flacheren Entwicklung bei den Regelaltersrentnern. Die langjährig Versicherten zeigen ein ähnliches Muster, welches jedoch weniger dynamisch ist. Der Anstieg konzentriert sich hier vor allem auf das Jahr 2023 nach der vollständigen Abschaffung der Hinzuverdienstgrenze. (Besonders) langjährig Versicherte nehmen also seit den Reformen häufiger die Möglichkeit wahr, neben der Rente hinzuzuverdienen. Lineare Regressionen zeigen überdies, dass sie im Durchschnitt in einem größeren Umfang hinzuverdienen als vor der Reform. Unklar bleibt, ob diese Hinzuverdienstausweitung einen Mitnahmeeffekt inkludiert, das heißt einen früheren Renteneintritt bei parallelem (ohnehin geplanten) Weiterarbeiten anstößt. Wenn Renteneintritte durch die Möglichkeit des unbegrenzten Hinzuverdiensts vorgezogen würden, würde dies eine erhebliche finanzielle Belastung für die Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bedeuten. Dies erfordert weitere empirische Untersuchungen, im Besonderen mit Blick auf Verhaltensänderungen beim individuellen Arbeitsangebot. |
| Abstract: | If statutory pensioners reach 35 or 45 years of creditable periods, they may draw their old-age pension early, i.e. earlier than their individual standard retirement age, from the age of 63 or a maximum of two years before their individual standard retirement age. Persons with 35 years of qualifying periods are insured for many years and must accept reductions on their pension entitlement if they draw their pension early. After an insured period of 45 years, the early pension is granted without deductions to those with particularly long insurance periods. The old-age pension for particularly long-term insured persons is often still referred to as 'pension at 63', although the minimum age for drawing an early pension without deductions is gradually being raised and will reach 65 years in 2031 when the standard retirement age reaches 67 years. Legislators have increased the supplementary income limit for long-term and particularly long-term insured persons twice for a limited period since 2020 and abolished it permanently at the start of 2023. The aim of the reforms is to increase the employment of these two pension groups and thus alleviate demographically induced skills shortages. Before the reforms, marginal employment was considered financially attractive for (particularly) long-term insured persons, as 40 per cent of additional earnings subject to social insurance contributions were offset against the old-age pension if they worked beyond this level. Nevertheless, in 2018 and 2019, a small proportion of people with (particularly) long-term insurance worked above the marginal employment threshold in addition to their pension and accepted the additional earnings being offset against their old-age pension. In the following, this employment above marginal employment is referred to as large additional earnings. In this analysis, the three reform steps are understood as a natural experiment in which the affected groups of (particularly) long-term insured persons are compared with the group of standard oldage pensioners who could earn in addition to their pensions even before the reform took place. Among women with particularly long insurance periods who were drawing an old-age pension for the first time, the proportion with large additional earnings rose by 14.1 percentage points from 2019 (before the reforms) to 2023 (after the reforms). The increase among standard old-age pensioners, who were already able to earn unlimited additional income before the reforms, was only 2.3 percentage points in the same period. A comparison of the group of women with particularly long-term insurance treated by the reform with the untreated group of regular old-age pensioners shows the so-called difference-in-difference of 11.8 percentage points. In the same period, the proportion of pensioners with large additional earnings rose by 12.1 percentage points among men with particularly long-term insurance compared with the flatter trend among pensioners who retired at standard retirement age. Those with long-term insurance show a similar pattern, although it is less dynamic. The increase here is mainly concentrated in 2023 after the complete abolition of the supplementary income limit. Since the reforms, (particularly) long-term insured persons have therefore more frequently taken advantage of the opportunity to earn additional income alongside their pension. Linear regressions also show that, on average, they earn more supplementary income than before the reform. It remains unclear whether this increase in supplementary income includes a windfall effect, i.e. whether it would trigger earlier retirement while continuing to work (as planned anyway). If retirements were brought forward by the possibility of unlimited additional earnings, this would mean a considerable financial burden for the statutory pension insurance scheme. This requires further empirical studies, particularly with regard to behavioural changes in individual labour supply. |
| JEL: | H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:319630 |
| By: | Francesco Ferlenga; Stephanie Kang |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants’ rights affects their political and social integration by exploiting Romania’s accession to the EU in 2007, which granted municipal voting and residency rights to Romanian immigrants in Italy. Using an event-study analysis at the municipality level, we find three key results. First, enfranchisement increased Romanians’ turnout and the likelihood of electing Romanian-born councilors in municipal elections, particularly in competitive races. An instrumented difference-in-differences strategy shows that this effect is driven by the enfranchisement of preexisting immigrants, not by new arrivals. Second, the rate of consent to organ donation among Romanian immigrants increased after 2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends beyond political representation to prosocial behavior. However, we also find that the presence of immigrants still increases the probability of right-leaning party victories and municipal spending on public security, while reducing spending on social programs. This suggests that native backlash to immigrant presence outweighs the political influence of newly enfranchised immigrant communities in shaping local electoral outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-04 |
| By: | Marco Giovanni Nieddu (University of Cagliari); Roberto Nisticò (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF); Lorenzo Pandolfi (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how publication-based tenure-track systems affect the careers of Ph.D. graduates in Economics. We leverage a 2010 reform in Italy that replaced open-ended assistant professor (AP) positions with fixed-term contracts and introduced publication minimum requirements for career advancement. Using survey and administrative data, along with a Difference-in-Differences Event-Study approach comparing Economics to less academically-oriented fields, we find that the reform significantly reduced the likelihood of Economics Ph.D. graduates entering academia in Italy, while increasing transitions to academic careers abroad or to public and private sector jobs. Talented graduates were disproportionately affected, revealing negative selection into Italian academia following the removal of permanent AP positions. Despite these trends, tenure-track hires tend to publish more in high-ranking journals, suggesting that the reform’s incentive effects may partly mitigate its negative selection effects. |
| Keywords: | Academic Careers, Fertility, Publications, Tenure. |
| JEL: | I23 J13 J24 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:746 |
| By: | Sevrin Waights |
| Abstract: | I use the universe of tax returns in Germany and a regression kink design to estimate the impacts of mothers' parental leave benefit amounts on couple earnings inequality. I make use of a benefits cap to estimate the causal impacts for high-earning women; a group for which earnings inequality is particularly large. A lower mothers' benefit amount results in a reduced gender gap in earnings that persists beyond the benefit period for at least nine years after the birth. The longer-term impacts are driven by couples where the mother earned more than her partner pre-birth. Simulations suggest that a 10% reduction in the benefit amount could reduce long-run child penalties in sample couples from 63 to 43%. |
| Keywords: | Child penalties, gender inequality in earnings, high-earning women, social norms, parental leave policy, regression kink design |
| JEL: | D63 H31 J13 J16 K31 M52 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0067 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Simon Fuchs; Illenin O. Kondo; Helene Maghin |
| Abstract: | We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city's insurance value as this approximation's second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and nonspatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity. |
| Keywords: | sufficient statistic; labor flows; concentration; economic diversity; welfare |
| JEL: | J61 J62 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:101192 |
| By: | Durrmeyer, Isis; D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier; Fournel, Jean-François; Iaria, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the welfare consequences of introducing an online distribution channel in the French car industry, where most sales take place in person through car dealers relying on third-degree price discrimination. We estimate a structural model of demand with unobserved third-degree price discrimination and transportation costs related to visiting car dealers. In counterfactuals, we introduce an online distribution channel in which prices are uniform and consumers benefit from lower transportation costs. When both distribution channels are available, firms charge low online prices to attract internet-savvy consumers online, while continuing to price discriminate the less internet-savvy consumers in person. The online channel is profitable for firms, and the more it reduces transportation costs, the more profitable it is. However, the costs and benefits of the online channel are unevenly distributed among consumers, with older, wealthier, and internet-savvy consumers obtaining most of the benefits. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130672 |
| By: | Paolo Croce (Bank of Italy, Economics, Statistics and Research DG, Economic History Division); Matteo Filippi (University of Zurich); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy); Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Internal migration facilitates an efficient allocation of labor within the economy, but are its sending and receiving areas affected differently? We address this question through the lens of Italy during the Golden Age (1950s-1970s), a period of population reshuffling with no parallel in the country’s history. Exploiting detailed spatial data on migratory flows, we can characterize the impact of short- and long-distance migration on economic development and structural change in the provinces of origin and destination. To tackle endogeneity of migration flows, we build on recent advances in the shift-share IVs literature: we interact past interwar government-authorized migrations with employment growth during the Golden Age to estimate exogenous short-distance migrations; origin-destination railway distances with provinces’ employment growth for long-distance ones. We find that short-distance emigration negatively affected origin provinces’ value added per capita mostly through lower business creation and productivity, while it determined even larger productivity gains in destination provinces. Similarly, although short-distance immigration boosted structural change away from agriculture in favor of the industrial sector, emigration curbs it in the provinces of origin, by reducing employment, value added and productivity in industry. We do not find comparably strong results for long-distance flows, which are shown to negatively affect origin provinces mostly through the employment rate, while the effects on productivity are limited; receiving provinces are also not as affected. We attribute the difference between short and long-distance effects to selection by type of migrants, where the most productive ones tend to favor nearby destinations. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Regional development, Economic growth |
| JEL: | J61 N14 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:751 |
| By: | Serena Fatica (European Commission - Joint Research Centre and Mofir.); Tommaso Oliviero (Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF, Mofir and Cefes); Michela Rancan (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | Using a large sample of European enterprises, we document that companies’ default probability is significantly larger when they experience negative end-of- the year equity (zombie status) in the year prior to default. Zombie firms are more likely to default in the short run in countries with more efficient judicial insolvency procedures. To establish a causal link between judicial efficiency and the default probability of zombie firms, we exploit a reform of the court districts in Italy that generates exogenous variation in trial lengths. This country-level analysis corroborates the findings of a cleansing effect of judicial efficiency that limits the persistence of zombie firms in the economy. |
| Keywords: | default; zombie firms; SMEs; EU-27; judicial efficiency. |
| JEL: | G33 K22 L25 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:747 |
| By: | Vinod Joseph Kannankeril Joseph (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Risto Conte Keivabu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Raya Muttarak; Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Stefano Mazzuco |
| Abstract: | It is well-established that deaths peak in winter and show throughs in summer. However, it remains unclear how mortality patterns will unfold as the climate warms, bringing fewer cold days and more hot days. One concern is “harvesting, ” where a short-term surge in deaths among the most vulnerable people is then followed by a period with fewer deaths than usual because those individuals would have died soon anyway. Under global warming, it is possible that higher mortality rates in summer will result not only from an increase in extreme heat events but also from a seasonal shift in excess deaths that would have previously occurred in winter. Combining mortality data from the Italian Statistical Office with temperature data from the Copernicus Data Store for Italy at the provincial level from 2011 to 2019, we employ Poisson regression models to estimate the effects of temperature extremes on mortality among individuals aged 60 and above. The results reveal that temperatures outside the comfort zone, both lower and higher, are associated with increased monthly mortality rates, with the strongest effects seen in the most extreme temperature ranges. We find evidence of a harvesting effect, particularly for moderately warm days (≥ 85th to |
| Keywords: | Italy, climate, mortality |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-018 |
| By: | Roberta De Luca (Bank of Italy); Rosalia Greco (Bank of Italy and Bocconi Baffi Center.); Giovanni Immordino (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF; University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, Mofir and Cefes) |
| Abstract: | We examine how government-mandated Covid-19 business closures impacted on the ownership structure of Italian private companies and investigate the mechanisms whereby the mafia infiltrates the legal economy during crises. Using a novel dataset tracking monthly shareholder changes, we show that an increase in the days of closure reduced the number of firms undergoing ownership changes, although significantly less so in provinces with strong mafia presence. This is especially true in the sectors that are historically prone to mafia infiltration and those more severely affected by the Covid-19 liquidity crisis, and in micro-firms, which tend to be more financially vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | Mafia Infiltration, Covid-19, Firm ownership |
| JEL: | D22 G32 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:750 |
| By: | Abatemarco, Antonio (CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy); Dell'Anno, Roberto (CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy); Lagomarsino, Elena (Department of Economics, University of Genoa - Italy) |
| Abstract: | The implementation of environmental policies varies substantially across geographical areas. This paper proposes a conceptual and methodological framework—adapted from the health economics literature—to assess equity in the allocation of environmental policy effort. We define “environmental care” as the set of local policy interventions aimed at improving environmental quality within an area, and evaluate its distribution relative to environmental need. Using direct and indirect standardization techniques, we measure horizontal inequity (unequal care among areas with similar need) and vertical inequity (differential care in response to differing needs). Applying this framework to traffic-related air pollution policies in Italian municipalities from 2012 to 2021, we find that the observed reduction of overall inequality in environmental care is mostly driven by a decline in hori- zontal inequity. However, we find evidence of persistent socioeconomic disparities, with lower-income municipalities receiving disproportionately less policy effort relative to their environmental needs. |
| Keywords: | environmental equity; environmental inequality; air pollution; distributive justice |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:0172 |
| By: | Geis-Thöne, Wido |
| Abstract: | Seit dem EU-Beitritt der ehemals sozialistischen Länder im östlichen Teil Europas und dem Auslaufen der darüber hinaus noch geltenden Einschränkungen bei der Freizügigkeit ist von dort eine sehr starke Zuwanderung nach Deutschland erfolgt. So ist die Anzahl der Personen mit Staatsangehörigkeiten der neuen EUMitgliedsländer in Deutschland zwischen dem 31.12.2009 und dem 31.12.2024 um 2, 15 Millionen von 966.000 auf 3, 11 Millionen gestiegen. Allein diese Zunahme entspricht einem Anteil von 2, 6 Prozent der aktuellen Gesamtbevölkerung. Hiervon hat der vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels zunehmend von Engpässen betroffene deutsche Arbeitsmarktsehrstark profitiert. Die Zahl der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten mit Staatsangehörigkeiten der neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer hat zwischen Januar 2010 und 2025 um rund 1, 42 Millionen von 254.000 auf 1, 68 Million zugenommen, womit der Anstieg 4, 1 Prozent der aktuellen Gesamtbeschäftigung entspricht. Gleichzeitig sind nur 113.000 erwerbsfähige Beziehende von Leistungen nach dem zweiten Sozialgesetzbuch, derzeit Bürgergeld, mit Staatsangehörigkeiten der neuen EUMitgliedsländer hinzugekommen, was 2, 9 Prozent des aktuellen Gesamtbestands entspricht. Dabei haben nicht nur die Metropolen, sondern auch viele ländliche Bereiche in Deutschland profitiert. So haben sich etwa auch viele Personen aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsländern im westlichen Niedersachsen niedergelassen. Allerdings dürfte diese Erfolgsgeschichte inzwischen abgeschlossen sein. So sind der Ausländerstatistik zufolge im Jahr 2024 mehr Personen mit Staatsangehörigkeiten der neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer ab- als zugewandert und ihre Beschäftigung war ebenfalls leicht rückläufig. Ob sich hieraus eine stärkere Rückwanderungsbewegung entwickeln wird, bleibt abzuwarten. Dagegen spricht, dass das Wohlstandsniveau in den ehemals sozialistischen Ländern noch immer wesentlich niedriger ist als in Deutschland, obschon in den letzten Jahrzehnten ein starker Aufholprozess stattgefunden hat. Mit großer Sicherheit lässt sich davon ausgehen, dass es auf absehbare Zeit nicht wieder zu einer starken Zuwanderung nach Deutschland kommen wird, da in den neuen EU-Mitgliedsländern aus demografischer Sicht kaum mehr Migrationspotenziale vorhanden sind. So muss die deutsche Migrationspolitik auch vorwiegend im außereuropäischen Bereich Fachkräfte gewinnen, um Wachstum und Wohlstand im Land zu sichern. Im September 2024 übten 944.000 Personen mit Staatsangehörigkeiten der neuen EU-Mitgliedsländer derartige Tätigkeiten aus, die typischerweise einen beruflichen oder akademischen Abschluss voraussetzen. Gleichzeitig müssen Strategien zur Sicherung des Arbeitskräfteangebots im Bereich der Saisonbeschäftigung und weiterer einfacher Tätigkeiten, die derzeit häufig von Personen aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsländern ausgeübt werden, entwickelt werden. Ansonsten drohen auch hier Engpässe, da die Unternehmen trotz an sich ausreichendem Angebot an Arbeitssuchenden mit Qualifikationen im Helferbereich im Inland häufig kaum geeignete Bewerber finden. |
| Abstract: | Since the former socialist countries in the eastern part of Europe joined the EU and the restrictions on freedom of movement expired, there has been very strong immigration to Germany from these countries. Between 31 December 2009 and 31 December 2024, the number of people with citizenship of the new EU member states in Germany rose by 2.15 million from 966, 000 to 3.11 million. This increase alone corresponds to 2.6 per cent of the current total population. Against the backdrop of demographic change, the German labour market, which is increasingly affected by labour shortages, has benefited greatly from this. Between January 2010 and 2025, the number of employees subject to social security contributions who are nationals of the new EU member states increased by around 1.42 million from 254, 000 to 1.68 million. This increase corresponds to 4.1 per cent of current total employment. At the same time, only 113, 000 employable recipients of benefits under the Second Social Security Code with citizenship of the new EU member states have been added, which corresponds to 2.9 per cent of the current total. Not only the metropolises, but also many rural areas in Germany have benefited. For example, many people from the new EU member states have settled in the western part of Lower Saxony. However, this success story is likely to be over by now. According to the statistics on foreigners, more people with citizenship of the new EU member states emigrated than immigrated in 2024 and their employment also declined slightly. It remains to be seen whether this will result in a stronger return migration movement. One argument against this is that the level of prosperity in the former socialist countries is still considerably lower than in Germany, although a strong catch-up process has taken place in recent decades. It is quite certain that there will not be another strong influx of migrants to Germany in the foreseeable future, as there is hardly any migration potential in the new EU member states from a demographic perspective. Therefore, German migration policy must attract skilled labour primarily from outside Europe in order to secure growth and prosperity in the country. In September 2024, 944, 000 people with citizenship of the new EU member states were working in such jobs, which typically require a vocational or academic qualification. At the same time, strategies must be developed to secure the labour supply in the area of seasonal employment and other simple jobs that are currently often carried out by people from the new EU member states. Otherwise, there is a risk of labour shortages here too, as companies are often unable to find suitable applicants in Germany, despite a sufficient supply of jobseekers with qualifications in the helper sector. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:319654 |
| By: | Miguel-Angel Lopez-Garcia (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the interactions between, on the one hand, the provision of public retirement pensions and the episodes of real-estate booms, and, on the other, individual decisions concerning savings. It explores the implications of these interactions in terms of intergenerational transfers of income and wealth, and the ensuing effects on the evolution of the savings rate. Some reforms of social security financing, involving public capital funds, and the effects of savings and investment incentives addressed to owner-occupied housing, are analysed. |
| Keywords: | social security pensions; capital funds; owner-occupied housing; savings and investment incentives; savings motives. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2504 |
| By: | Maximilian Langer; Joshua Hassib; Lars P. Feld; Daniel Nientiedt |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness and public finance implications of the German debt brake, a constitutional balanced budget rule introduced in 2009 that aims to ensure a sustainable path of public indebtedness. In order to estimate its causal effects, our paper employs a synthetic control strategy: We compare the counterfactual developments of six relevant outcome variables in a synthetic Germany without this rule to their actual developments. Overall, our empirical analysis suggests that the debt brake bears the main responsibility for the consolidation of German public finances during the 2010s. By reducing the deficit, the debt brake in all likelihood also reduced financing costs, though this effect cannot be solely attributed to it. Furthermore, our analysis finds that the debt brake did not negatively and robustly impact public investment, at least on the federal level. The results are supported by a variety of significance and robustness tests. |
| Keywords: | fiscal rules, fiscal federalism, german debt brake, policy evaluation, synthetic control method |
| JEL: | C13 C53 D78 H60 H63 H77 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_119333 |
| By: | Jorge Onrubia; Fernando Pinto; María del Carmen Rodado Ruíz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the predictive relationship between online search behavior and international housing demand, focusing on UK citizens purchasing property in Spain from 2014 to 2024. Using Google Trends data for the search term "Spain villas" alongside official transaction records, we estimate autoregressive(AR), argumented(ARX), and interaction models to asses whether digital intent anticipates real estate purchases.Results show that search intensity significantly enhances model performance before the 2016 Brexit referendum |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-08 |
| By: | Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesca Micocci; Armando Rungi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the presence of foreign direct investment (FDI) contributes to domestic innovation with a focus on green technologies in the European regions between 2013 and 2018. Using a rich dataset combining patent data, firm-level data and FDI proxies, we identify a clear pattern when foreign investors are technologically sophisticated, domestic firms in the regions where they invested show a higher propensity for patenting. The patenting activity by the parent companies of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their corporate perimeter plays a more crucial role than local foreign subsidiaries. Furthermore, we find that the technological focus of MNEs – green vs. non-green – shapes the direction of these spill-overs. Notably, we provide novel evidence of linkages between the green patenting activity of MNE parents located abroad and the green innovation of domestic firms in the European Union, mediated through foreign subsidiaries operating in close proximity. Policy efforts aiming to foster green innovation should therefore prioritise attracting foreign investors with strong innovation records in environmentally sustainable technologies. |
| Keywords: | technological spill-overs, multinational enterprises, FDI, domestic innovation, firm-level data |
| JEL: | O32 F23 O34 L23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:266 |
| By: | Bontems, Philippe; Calmette, Marie-Françoise; Martimort, David |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the forthcoming terminations of most highways concessions in France, we propose a versatile model of dynamic regulation and contract renewals that describes a long-term relationship between the public authority and an incumbent operator with private information about its costs that may face potential entrants. We discuss various issues including the nature of discriminatory biases towards entrants, their consequences on investments, the public or private nature of the management of concessions, the role of the operator's financial constraints, the consequences of allotments. So doing, we isolate a few principles that should guide policy-makers when deciding upon concession renewals. |
| Keywords: | Procurement; concession contracts; contract renewal; highways; transportation;; auctions; asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D82 D86 L51 L91 L98 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130653 |
| By: | Claudio Lissona; Esther Ruiz |
| Abstract: | We analyse economic growth vulnerability of the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries under stressed macroeconomic and financial conditions. Vulnerability, measured as a lower quantile of the growth distribution conditional on EA-wide and country-specific underlying factors, is found to be higher in Germany, which is more exposed to EA-wide economic conditions, and in Spain, which has large country-specific sectoral dynamics. We show that, under stress, financial factors amplify adverse macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, even severe sectoral (financial or macro) shocks, whether common or country-specific, fail to fully explain the vulnerability observed under overall stress. Our results underscore the importance of monitoring both local and EA-wide macro-financial conditions to design effective policies for mitigating growth vulnerability. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.14321 |
| By: | Daniel Avdic (Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation, University of Technology Sydney); Bo Lagerqvist (UCR and SCAAR Study Group, Uppsala University); Nils Gutacker (Centre for Health Economics, University of York); Giovanni van Empel (Department of Health Economics, Wellbeing, and Society, The Australian National University); Johan Vikström (IFAU, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study how multi-technology hospitals respond to market entry of single-technology competitors using a rescindment of regulations for heart attack treatments that prompted a rapid expansion of catheterization laboratories (cath labs) in Sweden. We isolate supply-side effects by exploiting that patients can-not choose their hospital and compare outcomes of cardiac patients residing in areas affected and unaffected by provider market entry, respectively. We show that patients with indications for cardiac surgery were more likely to receive catheter-based treatment after a cath lab opened in their hospital, and document increases in adverse health outcomes for inframarginal patients. Incumbent hospitals responded to this demand reallocation by augmenting their own demand for surgery, but to a lesser extent and without patient health consequences. |
| Keywords: | hospitals, market entry, technological substitution, supplier-induced demand, heart attacks |
| JEL: | D23 I11 I18 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-10 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Erik (Department of Medical Sciences, Health Economics, Centre for Health Economic Research (HEFUU) and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS), Uppsala University.); Okuyama, Yoko (Department of Economics, UCLS, and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS), Uppsala University); Hensvik, Lena (Department of Economics and UCLS, Uppsala University); Thoresson, Anna (Reykjavik University, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) and UCLS, Uppsala University.) |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in couples’ relative wages affect the division of childcare. Using a nationwide wage reform that raised pay in the female-dominated teaching profession, we find that closing 25% of the earnings gap between female teachers and their male spouses led to a 12% reduction in the childcare time gap. This result holds when we extend the analysis to major pay raises for women at the population level. Data support the mechanism that women reduce their childcare time when the spouse can step in by working more from home. Policies that address female pay can foster household equality if men have access to flexible work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; Childcare responsibility; Gender gaps; Working from home |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_011 |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | There has been enormous development in land supply governance in Bulgarian farms during the last two decades. However, due to insufficient (statistical, official, etc.) information and traditional inadequate (Neo-classical economics, Agency theory, etc.) approaches, there is no complete knowledge of dominating modes and driving factors of land governance. This chapter fills the gap and identifies dominating modes and factors of land supply in Bulgarian farms. Interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics methodology is incorporated, and original new representative data from the managers of farms of different types and locations is analyzed. The study found that rent and lease contracts are the most common forms of farmland supply, followed by ownership mode and joint cultivation. The importance of different governance modes, forms of supply contracts, the intensity of transactions, types of partners, and kinds of land rent and price varies considerably depending on the juridical type, size, specialization, and geographical and ecological locations of holdings. The main factors for the governance choice are frequency, uncertainty, asset specificity of transactions, and professional experience of farm managers. The amount of transaction costs for finding needed lands and natural resources is among the critical factors strongly restricting the development of many Bulgarian farms, particularly of sole traders and cooperatives, farms with large sizes, holdings specialized in permanent crops and mix crops, those located in plain regions, protected zones, and near big cities, and enterprises in North-east, North-central, and South-central regions of the country. Most problems and costs for land (purchase, rent, and lease) deals of farms are consequences of the lack of available lands, high prices, great fragmentation of land plots, and needs for deals with numerous (co)owners. A comparative analysis with a similar study demonstrated enormous modernization in land supply and overall governance of farms in the last two decades. |
| Keywords: | land supply; farms; governance; modes; factors; transaction costs |
| JEL: | D22 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125065 |
| By: | Manuel Llorca; Ana Rodriguez-Alvarez |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty, policy evaluation, stochastic frontier analysis, Spain, Bono Social Eléctrico |
| JEL: | C23 D12 I38 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2516 |
| By: | Schenuit, Felix |
| Abstract: | In den Diskussionen, die auf EU-Ebene über das neue Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 geführt werden, rückte zuletzt die Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in den Fokus. Die Diskussionen gewinnen auch deshalb an Dynamik, weil die Bundesregierung ihre Unterstützung für das Ziel, die Emissionen um netto 90 Prozent gegenüber dem Wert von 1990 zu mindern, an die Bedingung knüpft, bis zu drei Prozent der Zielvorgabe mittels internationaler Zertifikate aus Partnerländern zu erfüllen. Wie das Ziel konkret ausgestaltet werden soll und was daraus für die europäischen Politikinstrumente folgt, wird in den bevorstehenden EU-Gesetzgebungsprozessen Anlass für Konflikte sein. Trotz offener Fragen zur Qualität, Zusätzlichkeit und Verfügbarkeit der Zertifikate ist eine frühzeitige Debatte über ihre möglichen Funktionen sinnoll - um Politikinstrumente gegebenenfalls weiterzuentwickeln und spätere Korrekturen zu ermöglichen. Zielführend wäre es, den Einsatz internationaler Zertifikate auf dauerhafte CO2-Entnahmetechnologien zu konzentrieren, die in der EU selbst nur begrenzt skalierbar sind. Internationale CO2-Entnahme-Zertifikate könnten als Ausgleich von Restemissionen nicht nur einen Beitrag zur Bewältigung der noch bevorstehenden Herausforderungen auf dem Weg zu Treibhausgasneutralität leisten; die Etablierung einer institutionalisierten Nachfrage nach qualitativ hochwertigen Entnahmemethoden würde zugleich eine wichtige Grundlage für das Erreichen netto-negativer Emissionen schaffen. |
| Keywords: | EU, Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040, CO2-Entnahme-Zertifikate, Treibhausgasneutralität, Klimapolitik, Netto-Null-Treibhausgasemissionen, Carbon Management, CCS, CCU, CDR, Klimarahmenkonvention (UNFCCC) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:319695 |
| By: | Pimpertz, Jochen; Holtmeyer, Lena |
| Abstract: | Seit Mitte der 2000er Jahre ist der Krankenstand in Deutschland stetig gestiegen, im Jahr 2022 zeigt sich ein außergewöhnlicher Niveausprung. Während das Statistische Bundesamt einen weiteren Anstieg im Jahr 2023 ausweist, deutet der mitgliedergewichtete Krankenstand der beschäftigten AOK- und BKK-Mitglieder auf eine marginale Entlastung hin. Schreibt man die Entwicklung mit dem Trend fort, der sich auf Basis einer monatlichen BKK-Stichprobe für das Jahr 2024 ergibt, verharrt der Krankenstand auch im abgelaufenen Jahr auf unverändert hohem Niveau. Diese Einordnung bleibt auch bestehen, wenn man den Einfluss der ab 2022 eingeführten, elektronischen Erfassung von Arbeitsunfähigkeitsbescheinigungen mithilfe einer Heuristik schätzt. Für die Erklärung der Krankenstandentwicklung lassen sich vielfältige Hypothesen aus den deskriptiven Statistiken der Dachverbände verschiedener Krankenkassenarten ableiten - angefangen von soziodemografischen Merkmalen wie dem Alter oder Geschlecht über den Versichertenstatus oder den Bildungshintergrund bis hin zu arbeitsmarktbezogenen Merkmalen wie der beruflichen Tätigkeit, der Branchenzugehörigkeit oder der Betriebsgröße. Die Erklärungsbeiträge unterschiedlicher Faktoren ließen sich über einen regressionsanalytischen Ansatz bestimmen. Voraussetzung dafür ist aber der Zugang zu originären, anonymisierten Versichertendaten. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte eines erhöhten Krankenstands lassen sich nur in engen methodischen Grenzen schätzen, die Studienlage deutet aber auf eine merkliche Dämpfung der Wirtschaftsleistung hin. Unmittelbar werden die Arbeitgeber durch stetig steigende Aufwendungen für die Entgeltfortzahlung belastet. Dieser Anstieg kann nur zu einem Teil durch Beschäftigungsaufbau und nominale Bruttoentgelterhöhungen erklärt werden, auch der erhöhte Krankenstand treibt die Belastungen. Dabei gilt es zu beachten, dass es den Unternehmen aufgrund des demografisch bedingt schrumpfenden Arbeitskräftepotenzials zunehmend schwerer fällt, eine ausreichend große "Beschäftigungsreserve" vorzuhalten, um krankheitsbedingte Fehlzeiten ohne Umsatzausfälle zu überbrücken. Dies motiviert die Reformdebatten um eine Begrenzung der Entgeltfortzahlungspflicht. Ob Karenztage, reduzierte Fortzahlung während einer Karenzzeit oder eine Begrenzung der Gehaltsfortzahlung auf maximal sechs Wochen pro Jahr - die Effekte hängen maßgeblich davon ab, dass derartige Maßnahmen nicht durch tarifvertragliche Regelungen konterkariert werden. Jenseits der monetären Belastungen für die Arbeitgeber deuten Indizien auf eine zumindest juristisch zweifelhafte Praxis bei der Attestierung einer Arbeitsunfähigkeit. Die Nutzung einschlägiger Internetportale zur Erlangung einer AU-Bescheinigung scheint bislang statistisch wenig relevant zu sein, begründet aber im Einzelfall erhebliche Zweifel, dass die Krankschreibung nach vergleichbaren Kriterien erfolgt wie bei einer persönlichen Konsultation eines in Deutschland praktizierenden Arztes. Deshalb sollte diese Optionen abgeschafft werden. Weitere Indizien deuten auf eine zumindest juristisch zweifelhafte Handhabung der telefonischen Krankschreibung in nicht unerheblichem Umfang. Sollte sich der Verdacht erhärten, dass nicht ärztliches Praxispersonal AU-Bescheinigungen ohne Arztkontakt ausstellt, gilt es Optionen zu prüfen, die eine ärztliche Konsultation sicherstellen. |
| Abstract: | Sickness rates in Germany have risen continuously since the mid-2000s and experienced an extraordinary jump in 2022. While the Federal Statistical Office reports a further increase in 2023, the member-weighted sickness rate of employed AOK and BKK members indicates a slight decline. If the development is extrapolated with the trend of a non-representative BKK sample for 2024, the sickness rate will remain at an unchanged high level in 2024. However, the increase is smaller if effects resulting from the digital recording of certificates of incapacity for work from 2022 onwards are considered. But even then, the strong increase in 2022 remains striking. A variety of hypotheses can be derived from the descriptive statistics of the umbrella organizations of the statutory health insurance funds AOK and BKK to explain the development of sickness rates - starting with socio-demographic characteristics such as age or gender, insured status or educational background, through to labour market-related characteristics such as professional activity, industry affiliation or company size. The explanatory contributions of different variables could be determined using a regression analysis approach. However, this requires access to anonymized insurance data, which has so far been denied for data protection reasons. Severalstudies indicate a noticeable dampening of economic performance due to sickness absence. Irrespective of this, employers are directly burdened by rising expenses for continued remuneration during absence due to illness. This rise can only be partially explained by the increase in employment and nominal gross wages. Rising sickness rates also contribute to the burden. This motivates the reform debate on limiting the obligation to continue payment of wages during illness. Whether it is about periods without or with reduced wages or about limiting continued payment of wages to a maximum of six weeks per year, for example - the relief depends on not being slowed down by collective agreements. In addition, there are indications that the certification of incapacity for work can be obtained in a legally dubious manner. This must also be prevented in view of demographic developments. Because in an ageing population it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive for companies to maintain a sufficiently large 'labour reserve' to avoid revenue losses due to sickness absence. Even if the use of relevant internet portals to obtain a medical certificate for fee appears to be statistically insignificant so far, there are considerable doubts as to whether the issuance of certificate for fee is based on criteria comparable to those for personal consultation of a physician. This option should therefore be abolished. Further indications of legally doubtful handling arise related to medical certificates issued by telephone. An initial empirical study indicates that non-medical practice staff issue a considerable number of certificates without contacting a physician. If this unlawful practice is confirmed, rules must be found to ensure a medical consultation first. |
| JEL: | I12 J28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:319631 |
| By: | Czyżewski, Bazyli; Poczta-Wajda, Agnieszka; Matuszczak, Anna; Smędzik-Ambroży, Katarzyna; Guth, Marta |
| Abstract: | CONTEXT. The European Union actively supports and promotes the development of more sustainable and resilient farming systems and contributes to the significant expansion of organic farming. Despite the considerable growth of the organic agricultural sector, this process faces several structural challenges, especially in countries with fragmented agriculture, such as Romania, where small-scale farming dominates. Small-scale farmers are quite reluctant to transition to organic farming even despite financial incentives. OBJECTIVE. This study aims to understand small-scale farmers’ reluctance to adopt organic farming by combining embeddedness theory, which links economic activities to social structures, with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). METHODS. A survey of 150 small-scale farms in Romania's Centru region was conducted in 2023 using semi-structured face-to-face questionnaires. The research framework combines embeddedness theory and the extended TPB using structural equation modelling and simultaneous confirmatory factor analysis. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS. It was demonstrated that network embeddedness exerts the most significant influence on pro-ecological behavioural intentions when considered in the context of other TPB constructs. However, this positive impact is partially offset by the negative impact of embeddedness at the farm level. Our research results suggest that changing the approach of small-scale farmers to organic farming requires strengthening network embeddedness through workshops, training sessions, rallies, and meetings that would highlight the benefits of organic farming. SIGNIFICANCE. We shed more light on the behavioural drivers of adopting organic practices in small-scale framing and argue that the relational embeddedness construct represents a significant extension of the TPB framework for agri-environmental studies. |
| Keywords: | organic farming, Romanian agriculture, structural equation modelling, extended TPB, social embeddedness |
| JEL: | Q15 Q18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123832 |
| By: | Lionel Wilner (CREST-ENSAE Paris); Philippe Choné (CREST-ENSAE Paris) |
| Abstract: | To empirically assess how physicians respond to financial incentives, we leverage a quasi-natural experiment in France where most GPs’ fees are regulated. In 2017, a wide-scale regulatory change caused the price of a visit to increase from e23 to e25. Relying on granular claims data covering the universe of patients, doctors, and visits, we show that physician activity grew by nearly 9% after the price increase, yielding a unitary price elasticity of healthcare provision. The number of distinct patients examined increased substantially, while the provision of medical services per patient hardly changed, resulting in a slight increase in physicians’ number of days worked. Drug prescription per patient is also shown to decrease, suggesting that the policy was cost-effective and enhanced access to healthcare, with limited adverse effects. Earlycareer physicians responded strongly to these financial incentives, while later-career physicians hardly changed their labor supply behavior. |
| Keywords: | Physician labor supply; Financial incentives; Claims data; Access to healthcare; Medical spending. |
| JEL: | I11 I18 J44 |
| Date: | 2025–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Paweł Kopiec (Narodowy Bank Polski); Małgorzata Walerych (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the transmission of monetary shocks in Poland depends on the level of economic slack. To this end, we estimate smooth transition panel local projections using Poland’s regional data and analyze how monetary shocks affect unemployment and prices in regimes of high and low unemployment. Our key finding aligns with economic intuition: the response of unemployment to monetary policy shocks is stronger when economic slack is high, compared to when it is low. Conversely, the adjustment of prices to monetary innovations is more pronounced when idle resources in the economy are scarce, compared to when they are abundant. Our main conclusion is further supported by evidence showing that the difference in the strength of the employment response to monetary shocks, depending on the unemployment level, is more pronounced in sectors producing non-tradable goods than in those manufacturing tradable goods. Moreover, comparing our model with its linear counterpart confirms that monetary transmission in Poland indeed exhibits state-dependence, while the analysis of monetary shock distributions under low and high unemployment shows that our results are not driven by the presence of a regime-dependent pattern in monetary disturbances. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, unemployment, local projections, state dependence |
| JEL: | E24 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:377 |
| By: | Kenny, Sean; Stuart, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and our estimates are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of business cycle turning points than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence. |
| Keywords: | Irish quarterly GDP, principal components, Chow-Lin interpolation, factors, economic growth |
| JEL: | E01 N14 O47 O40 P44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:320436 |
| By: | Eva Davoine; Joseph Enguehard; Igor Kolesnikov |
| Abstract: | We examine the political costs of taxation in early modern France. We focus on efforts to enforce the salt tax, the rate of which varied across regions. Using a spatial difference-in-discontinuities design, we compare municipalities just inside the high-tax region with those just outside, before and after a reform aimed at curbing illicit salt smuggling. We find that tax enforcement led to a twenty-fold increase in conflicts between taxpayers and the state in municipalities in the high-tax region. This effect persists until the French Revolution, supporting the view that enforcing the salt tax incurred significant political costs. Finally, we document that the likelihood of conflict increases with tax differences between neighboring regions, which we use to derive an upper bound on the political costs of increased tax enforcement in this historical period. |
| Keywords: | taxation, protest, conflict |
| JEL: | D74 H26 H39 K42 N43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11945 |
| By: | Lu, Lanxin (Central Bank of Ireland); Fiedor, Pawel (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In this note, we explore whether the way fund managers invest can lead to risks that affect the entire financial system. We found that managers of bond funds in Ireland tend to invest in riskier assets when interest rates drop, possibly to achieve higher returns. In contrast, managers of equity funds do the opposite. We also discovered that bond funds receive more money from investors when interest rates are higher. Furthermore, equity funds attract more investments when they take on more risk. Our analysis is based on how fund managers allocate their investments, revealing their willingness to take risks. When fund managers seek higher returns by taking more risks, it can make the financial system more vulnerable and increase the chance of severe economic downturns. These insights are crucial for monitoring financial stability and guiding policies for non-bank financial institutions, which have become more significant since more assets have shifted from banks to non-banks after 2008. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:2/fs/25 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente; Pep Ruiz Aguirre |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se describe la última actualización del módulo sectorial de la base de datos RegData FEDEA-BBVA. En este módulo se desagregan por sectores las series regionales de empleo (ocupados y asalariados), VAB a precios corrientes y constantes y remuneración de asalariados del módulo central de RegData y se construyen deflactores regionales del VAB para cada sector, trabajando con una desagregación en seis grandes ramas productivas (extensible de forma tentativa a ocho). Las series comienzan en 1955 y se extienden hasta 2023. La actualización de este año requiere el enlace de la versión anterior de RegData con las nuevas series de Contabilidad Regional de España (CRE) del INE, que comienzan en 2021. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-12 |
| By: | Bakens, Jessie (ROA / Labour market and training, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); Cobben, Luc; Künn-Nelen, Annemarie (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, ROA / Labour market and training); Lansink, Xander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | In dit onderzoek beschrijven we welke rol scholing speelt bij baanmobiliteit en wat de rol van de overheid is bij scholing op de arbeidsmarkt. We maken hierbij gebruik van verschillende surveys en administratieve databronnen. Uit ons onderzoek blijkt dat formele scholing, een diploma van bekostigd onderwijs na de leeftijd van 30 jaar, samenhangt met mobiliteit op de arbeidsmarkt en een verbetering van de positie op de arbeidsmarkt in termen van loon en kans op een vast contract. Zo blijkt dat de kans op een baanwissel groter is onder mensen die een formeel scholingstraject afgerond hebben dan onder de rest. Vaak vindt de baanwissel al voor het behalen van het diploma plaats, wat wijst op duale/deeltijd-/BBL-trajecten waarbij men formeel leren combineert met werken (en geld verdienen). Dit geldt zeker ook voor opleidingen die opleiden tot knelpuntberoepen in de Techniek en ICT, en Zorg, en Onderwijs. Een combinatie van leren en werken (geld verdienen) heeft dus veelal de voorkeur bij formele scholing, en is mogelijk randvoorwaardelijk voor om- en bijscholing. Non-formele (werkgerelateerde cursusdeelname) en informele scholing (leren door het uitvoeren van taken) spelen een belangrijke rol op de arbeidsmarkt. Bijna zes op de tien werkenden tussen de 25 en 55 jaar heeft in de afgelopen twee jaar een werkgerelateerde cursus gevolgd. Vier op de vijf cursussen is volledig gefinancierd door de werkgever. Bij slechts 2 procent van cursussen wordt gebruik gemaakt van een subsidieverstrekker. Gemiddeld besteedden werkenden tussen de 25 en 55 jaar in het meetjaar 2024, 24 procent van de werktijd aan taken waarvan zij kunnen leren (informele scholing). Het betreft onder andere informatie vragen aan anderen, spreken met anderen over (werk)ervaringen, en op voorhand stilstaan bij wat men zou doen. De correlatie tussen deze vormen van scholing en baan- en beroepenmobiliteit is niet eenduidig; het blijkt namelijk dat scholing ook belangrijk is om inzetbaar te blijven als je niet mobiel bent. Dit als gevolg van onder andere technologische ontwikkelingen. Het blijkt wel dat onder mobiele werkers de kans op deelname aan non-formele en informele scholing groter is als de vaardigheidsafstanden tussen twee beroepen groter is. Ook vinden we een sterk verband tussen scholing in het algemeen en beroepenmobiliteit. Op basis van de vaardigheidsafstand tussen beroepen die berekend wordt met de Nederlandse Skills Survey, blijkt dat de mobiliteit tussen beroepen afneemt als de verschillen in vaardigheden tussen beroepen toenemen. Dit duidt erop dat beroepswissels tussen beroepen met een grotere vaardigheidsafstand alleen plaats kunnen vinden als er scholing gevolgd wordt om dit verschil te overbruggen. Niet alleen verschillen in vaardigheden spelen een rol bij beroepswissels, maar ook arbeidsvoorwaarden zoals het verschil in lonen en werkuren; er zijn minder beroepswissels als het nieuwe beroep minder gunstige arbeidsvoorwaarden heeft. Werkenden in beroepen met een hoge vaardigheidsafstand tot andere beroepen waar we wel veel beroepenmobiliteit waarnemen, volgen relatief veel training en besteden ook relatief meer tijd aan informeel leren. Daarnaast blijkt dat, alhoewel de vaardigheidsafstand voor deze beroepen relatief groot is, er voor veel van deze beroepen geen specifieke opleiding vereist is. Juist in de beroepen waar vakkennis door formeel leren belangrijk is, zien we relatief weinig beroepenmobiliteit. LLO-beleid gericht op formele scholing lijkt vooral zinvol voor die beroepen waarvoor (relatief) weinig beroepenmobiliteit geobserveerd wordt, maar waar deze bijvoorbeeld voor het oplossen van knelpunten op de arbeidsmarkt wel wenselijk is. Dit gaat vooral over beroepen waarvoor specifieke vakkennis uit formele opleidingen noodzakelijk is voor het uitoefen van een beroep, zoals in de zorg en het onderwijs en de techniek. Wel is het zo dat formele scholing juist ook voor deze opleidingen al gebeurt. De opleiding tot verzorgende ig (mbo3), pedagogisch medewerker (mbo4), verpleegkunde en medische ondersteuning (mbo4), lerarenopleiding basisonderwijs (bachelor), elektrotechniek (bachelor), recht (bachelor), rechtsgeleerdheid (master) behoren tot de meest voorkomende studies voor formele (om)scholing. Bij gebrek aan administratieve data over beroepen, hebben we niet kunnen achterhalen of formele scholers van deze studies daadwerkelijk overstappen naar deze knelpuntberoepen. Maar gegeven het specifieke karakter van deze opleidingen is het wel aannemelijk dat formele scholing overstappen naar deze knelpuntberoepen faciliteert. Het huidige LLO-beleid speelt hier dus al een rol, maar evaluatie van (de effectiviteit van) dit bestaande beleid valt buiten de scope van dit onderzoek. |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarep:2025006 |
| By: | Aurore Fransolet; Josefine J.V. Vanhille |
| Keywords: | Transition juste; Justice sociale-écologique; Inégalités environnementales; Belgique |
| Date: | 2023–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/365729 |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Aufbauend auf der Vorjahresstudie (Matthes, 2024a) führt das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) mit diesem Report das IW-Monitoring von potenziell kritischen Importabhängigkeiten der deutschen Wirtschaft von China fort. Unter mehr als 14.300 8-Steller-Warengruppen finden sich aktuell nur gut 200 mit einem China-Importanteil von mindestens 50 Prozent. Damit konzentriert sich die - so definierte - potenziell kritische Importabhängigkeit Deutschlands von China auf einen sehr überschaubaren Kreis. Darunter können freilich trotzdem Produkte mit gravierenden kritischen Abhängigkeiten sein, bei denen Versorgungsengpässe relevante negative gesellschaftliche oder gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte haben würden. Unter den Top 20 wertmäßig wichtigsten dieser Warengruppen stechen einige Produkte mit bekannten Importabhängigkeiten von China hervor. Mit großem Abstand vorn liegen Laptops mit fast 10 Milliarden Euro Importwert. An zweiter Stelle rangieren Fotoelemente für Solaranlagen (1, 6 Milliarden Euro), danach folgt überwiegend verschiedenes EDV-Zubehör, an achter Stelle Dauermagnete aus Neodym (gut 400 Millionen Euro). Diese Produkte gehören zum Warenklassifikationsabschnitt "Maschinen, Apparate, mechan. Geräte und elektrotechn. Waren, u.a.", auf den insgesamt 80 der 229 hier identifizierten Warengruppen mit potenziell kritischen Importabhängigkeiten von China entfallen. Mit 89 finden sich die meisten dieser Warengruppen jedoch im Abschnitt der chemischen Erzeugnisse. Darunter sind auch fünf Gruppen von Seltenerdmetallen, es dominieren aber mit 65 Warengruppen die organischen chemischen Erzeugnisse, deren Bezeichnungen oft nur Experten etwas sagen. Hier handelt es sich folglich um bislang weitgehend unbekannte potenziell kritische Importabhängigkeiten von China bei Produkten, die keine der "üblichen Verdächtigen" sind. Gegenüber dem Vorjahr hat sich bei der potenziell kritischen Importabhängigkeit Deutschlands von China kaum etwas verändert. Zwar ist der summierte Importwert leicht gesunken, aber die Anzahl der Warengruppen und der durchschnittliche Importanteil Chinas haben sich geringfügig erhöht. Ein spürbares De-Risking der deutschen Wirtschaft von China ist hier folglich nicht zu erkennen [...] |
| Abstract: | Building on the previous year's study (Matthes, 2024a), the German Economic Institute (IW) is continuing the IW-Monitoring of potentially critical import dependencies of the German economy on China with this report. Among more than 14, 300 8-digit product groups, there are currently only just over 200 with a China import share of at least 50 per cent. This means that Germany's potentially critical import dependency on China - as defined here - is concentrated in a relatively small number of product groups. However, these may still include products with serious critical dependencies, where supply bottlenecks would have relevant negative social or macroeconomic effects. Among the top 20 most important of these product groups in terms of value, some products with known import dependencies on China stand out. Laptops are by far in the lead with an import value of almost 10 billion euros. In second place are photo elements for solar modules (1.6 billion euros), followed mainly by various IT accessories. In the eighth place, there are permanent magnets made of neodymium (about 400 million euros). These products belong to the broader trade classification section of machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical equipment, etc., which accounts for a total of 80 of the 229 product groups identified here with potentially critical import dependencies on China. At 89, however, most product groups can be found in the chemical products section. This also includes five groups of rare earth metals. But organic chemical products, whose names are often only known to experts, dominate with 65 product groups. As a result, these are potentially critical import dependencies on China for products that are not the usual suspects. Compared to the previous year, Germany's potentially critical import dependency on China has hardly changed. Although the total import value has fallen slightly, the number of product groups and the average import share of China have increased slightly. Consequently, there are no signs of a noticeable de-risking of the German economy from China [...] |
| JEL: | F1 O1 Y1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:319629 |