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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Stuhler, Jan; Grebol, Ricard; Machelett, Margarita; Villanueva, Ernesto |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating among the same cohorts. To explore these patterns, we examine regional correlates of mobility, using split-sample techniques. A key finding from both national and regional analyses is the close association between mobility and assortative mating: spousal sorting accounts for nearly half of the regional variation in intergenerational correlations and also appears to be a key mediator of the negative relationship between inequality and mobility documented in recent studies. |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J62 N34 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21407 |
| By: | Philippe, Arnaud; Skandalis, Daphne |
| Abstract: | Why do women’s labor earnings drop upon motherhood? We shed new light on this question by analyzing the changes in job search behavior associated with motherhood. We exploit data on the job applications sent on a popular online platform linked with administrative registers for 350, 000 involuntarily unemployed workers in France. After losing their job, mothers have a 11.7% lower probability to find a job than similar women without children and send 12.2% fewer job applications. To explore the underlying mechanisms, we analyze the timing of job applications. Unlike other women, mothers’ rate of applications decreases by about 20.5% in the hours when there is no school. Moreover, the French reform that introduced school on Wednesday in 2014 led mothers to send more applications on Wednesdays. Our results highlight that childcare creates constraints on the timing of job search activities for mothers. We finally provide suggestive evidence that these constraints decrease their returnto- search, and thereby contribute to their lower application and job finding rates. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality; Motherhood; Time allocation; Job search |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21431 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Andrea Riganti (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the 2011 Italian Fornero Pension Reform altered retirement behaviour among individuals approaching retirement age and whether household characteristics shaped responses to the reform. Using panel data from Waves 4 and 5 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the analysis exploits variation in reform exposure across age cohorts and over time within a difference-in-differences framework with individual fixed effects. The results provide limited evidence that the reform substantially affected retirement and employment outcomes, although some estimates are consistent with delayed retirement and extended labour market participation. However, important heterogeneity emerges across household contexts. In particular, partnership status provides the strongest, albeit modest, evidence of heterogeneous responses to the reform. By contrast, there is little evidence that gender, number of children, caregiving responsibilities, health status, wealth, social support, or social security wealth systematically alter responses to the reform. These findings suggest that retirement behaviour is shaped not only by individual labour market incentives but also by household decision-making processes. More broadly, the results highlight the importance of considering household dynamics when evaluating the labour supply effects of pension reforms in family-oriented welfare systems such as Italy. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, family structure, retirement policy, household dynamics |
| JEL: | H55 J16 J26 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-007 |
| By: | Antonín Hořčica (Faculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice) |
| Abstract: | Addressing the gap in regional sustainability monitoring in the EU, this study assesses the applicability of composite sustainability indicator families at the NUTS 2 level and de-velops a methodology for regional variants of the Human Development Index (HDI) family. Nine indicator families were systematically assessed against four applicability criteria: communicability, relationship to GDP, sustainability dimension coverage, and territorial applicability. The HDI family emerged as the only methodologically sound basis for the NUTS 2 sustainability assessments. Four regional indices (R-HDI, R-IHDI, R-GDI, and the planetary pressures-adjusted R-PHDI) were derived from Eurostat and EDGAR data and piloted on 84 NUTS 2 regions across six Central European countries (V4, Germany, Austria) for 2000-2024. Functional data analysis with global envelope tests confirmed that conclu-sions about convergence depend on indicator choice: statistically significant V4 vs DE+AT differences under R-HDI (p = 0, 001) disappeared following environmental adjustment via R-PHDI (p = 0, 487), with emission-intensive regions substantially penalised. The R-IHDI and R-GDI required methodological compromises owing to the absence of microdata at the NUTS 2 level. This study presents the first systematic derivation and empirical application of the full HDI family at EU NUTS 2 level. |
| Keywords: | sustainability indicators, NUTS regions, Human Development Index, functional data analy-sis, European Union, regional development |
| JEL: | C14 Q01 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:02_2026 |
| By: | Bello, Piera; Galasso, Vincenzo; Izzo, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how policy uncertainty influences retirement decisions. We develop a simple model in which individuals face a one-time choice between immediate retirement and continued employment until the statutory retirement age. In the absence of policy uncertainty, retirement decisions depend solely on the standard income–leisure trade-off. When future pension reforms are uncertain, however, individuals also take into account the perceived risk of increases in the retirement age or reductions in benefit generosity, and may choose to accept the offer in order to lock in current pension rules. Using administrative data from a large Italian bank that offered a one-time early-retirement scheme in 2017, we find that acceptance rates decline with the expected income loss but rise with the number of years to retirement. These patterns are consistent with workers using early retirement as an insurance against potential policy changes, underscoring the importance of incorporating behavioural responses to policy uncertainty in the design of pension systems. Our findings suggest that individuals with an average annual income of €35, 000 are willing to pay an annual premium of €481 to insure against the probability that the pension system is reformed. |
| JEL: | D91 H55 J14 J26 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21344 |
| By: | Spitzer, Sonja; Lemoine, Adele; Son, Zhanxiong; Reiter, Claudia; Greulich, Angela; Herlitz, Agneta; Bartova, Alzbeta; Brini', Elisa; Dancikova, Zuzana; Galdauskaite, Dovile; Gonzalez, Libertad; Hatzivarnava-Kazassill, Evi; Honkaniemi, Helena; Juarez, Sol P.; Hart, Rannveig Kaldager; Kristiansen, Ida Lykke; Kurowska, Anna; Pall, Katre; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara; Rakar, Tatjana; Rasanen, Tapio; Rentzou, Konstantina; Balsas, Pedro Romero; Schmidt, Eva-Maria; Thil, Laurene; Tuda, Dora; Vargha, Lili; Vignoli, Daniele; Wagner, Sander; Wrohlich, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Background: Parenting leave policies shape how caregiving and paid work can be reconciled around the time of childbirth. They have important implications for fertility, employment, and gender equality. Still, there are limited quantitative cross-country data capturing long-term policy changes that impact how long parents can temporarily be away from work to care for their children, and how leave can be shared between them. Objective: The European Parenting Leave Policies (EPLP) Dataset provides harmonised regulations on maternity, co-parent, paid parental, and job-protected leave across 21 European countries from 1970 to 2024. It focuses on policies that shape how long birth mothers and their co-parents can take leave. Methods: Statutory leave entitlements were compiled from national legal sources, official government publications, and secondary literature. We followed a consistent set of data collection rules to enable comparison across countries and over time. Because the dataset focuses on time away from the job, it considers only rights for employed parents. It includes 33 variables and also documents country-specific reform timelines. Contribution: The EPLP Dataset fills a gap in existing data sources by providing quantitative data across 55 years on policies that shape how long parents stay at home around birth and how leave is shared between them. In addition to leave duration and benefits, it covers recent policy instruments such as incentives for parents to share leave, and timing and flexibility of leave use. The dataset enables cross-national comparisons and the analysis of changes over time, and can be used to study the effects of policy reforms. |
| Keywords: | family policy; gender equality; job-protected leave; maternity leave; paid parental leave; parental leave benefit; paternity leave |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138963 |
| By: | Gatopoulos, Georgios; Louka, Alexandros; Mavropoulos, Antonis; Saperas, Sotiris; Vettas, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability is at the center of European policy, as housing costs impose ever increasing budget constraints on households. In Greece, the lack of affordable housing is more prevalent than in all other EU-member countries. In this paper we employ a detailed and geographically granular dataset on household finances to investigate regional disparities in housing affordability in Greece. We also explore the socio-economic profile of households in distress due to excessive housing costs. By constructing an appropriate index, we find that housing affordability worsened from 2018 to 2021, while also revealing significant regional heterogeneity, with the issue being more pronounced in urban areas. Subsequently, we identify through both descriptive and econometric evidence, the characteristics of the most vulnerable households, revealing that younger and smaller households, the unemployed, those with lower income and especially renters are facing the highest affordability constraints. The findings provide important insights for shaping policies for affordable housing. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21404 |
| By: | R. Paci; A. Pireddu; G. Caruso |
| Abstract: | Activation policies are increasingly expected to address not only labour market exclusion but also broader territorial challenges. This paper investigates LavoRAS, a regional programme introduced in Sardinia (Italy) that combines employment activation with the provision of local public works and services, thereby linking workfare-oriented instruments to place-based development objectives. Drawing on an integrated mixed-methods design—combining administrative evidence on project portfolios and job starts with qualitative insights from interviews and focus groups—we analyse how institutional arrangements and governance capacity shape implementation across territories. The evidence suggests that LavoRAS operated as a place-based policy instrument by mobilising local actors and resources, yet its effects were strongly mediated by administrative capacity and coordination mechanisms. In particular, changes in the governance architecture contributed to the emergence of a "two-speed" implementation pattern, with stronger municipalities and localities capturing more complex projects and opportunities, while weaker areas remained confined to lower-capacity interventions. We argue that activation programmes can contribute to territorial development when embedded in stable multi-level governance and supported by coordination infrastructures; conversely, governance discontinuities risk amplifying spatial inequalities. The paper advances planning and regional policy debates by specifying the institutional mechanisms through which activation measures interact with territorial capital and produce differentiated spatial outcomes. |
| Keywords: | workfare policy, place-based policy, territorial inequalities, regional governance, institutional capacity |
| JEL: | J68 R58 H83 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202609 |
| By: | Kevin André Pineda-Hernández; François Rycx; Thomas Senterre; Mélanie Volral |
| Abstract: | Although a growing number of studies highlight the moderating role of educational attainment on the wage differential between immigrants and natives, the influence of the field of study remains largely unexplored. We aim to fill this gap by drawing on detailed, matched employer-employee data on workers holding a master’s degree in Belgium for the period 1999-2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates, our regression analyses show that the wage gap between immigrant and native workers with degrees in higher-paying fields (i.e. STEM and LEM) narrows considerably over two generations, but remains significant. By contrast, among workers with degrees in lower-paying fields (i.e. Other Social Sciences, Education, Services, Arts and Humanities) the wage gap between immigrants and natives disappears within two generations. Furthermore, our wage decompositions reveal that immigrant graduates are somewhat more likely to hold degrees in higher-paying fields than natives, which results in a small positive quantity effect. However, they also show that wage returns associated with fields of study are significantly lower for immigrants than for natives. This leads to a negative price effect, which, in percentage points, is halved over two generations. Altogether, the combined price and quantity effects – with the former far outweighing the latter – account for between 28 and 37% of the overall pay gap between natives and first- and second-generation immigrants, respectively. Sensitivity tests using a more detailed classification of fields of study further refine our results. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant-native wage gap; first- and second-generation immigrants; field of study; matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I25 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/408813 |
| By: | Basso, Gaetano; De Paola, Maria; Lattanzio, Salvatore; Paradisi, Matteo |
| Abstract: | We study whether workplace flexibility is a key driver of the motherhood penalty. Exploiting the sharp and heterogeneous diffusion of work-from-home (WFH) contracts after COVID-19 in a difference-in-differences framework, we combine administrative data on the universe of Italian WFH contracts with matched employer--employee records, mother--father links, fertility records, and firm balance sheets. Greater exposure to flexible work substantially reduces mothers' post-childbirth earnings losses, primarily through higher weeks worked, lower part-time incidence, lower parental leave take-up, and improved career progression. IV estimates indicate that holding a WFH contract offsets about 77\% of mothers' earnings losses around childbirth. Gains are larger among younger, lower-earning, and commuting mothers, in households where the father is the dominant earner, and in occupations with steeper hours--earnings profiles, consistent with flexibility relaxing constraints where most binding. Fathers' own earnings do not respond to flexibility around childbirth, yet fathers' exposure to flexible work reduces mothers' earnings losses by a comparable magnitude, pointing to household-level time constraints as a central mechanism. Consistent with this interpretation, fertility, a joint household decision, rises for women more exposed to flexibility, as flexibility lowers the labor-market cost of the marginal child. A counterfactual exercise shows that the life-cycle widening of the gender earnings gap would have been 10.7\% smaller under current WFH diffusion and up to 29.4\% smaller if all remotable jobs had adopted flexible arrangements. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21486 |
| By: | Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Morelli, Marco (University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of the Bologna Process reform in Italy, focusing on the introduction of the “3+2†degree structure and its impact across different stages of the education system. Using multiple Difference-in-Differences designs and nationally representative data on high school graduates and university graduates, we show that the reform increased graduation from the academic-oriented high school track by 5.50 percentage points, revealing a backward spillover effect on high school completion. At university level, the reform raised enrollment and timely graduation while reducing dropout. The effects are systematically larger for students from the most disadvantaged parental backgrounds, especially when combined with high ability. These findings suggest that the Bologna Process reduced barriers to educational investment for talented students facing financial constraints, challenging the view that it mainly attracted low-ability students. Descriptive labor-market evidence also points to convergence in outcomes by parental background, but only among Bachelor’s graduates. |
| Keywords: | higher education reform, university enrollment and dropout, backward spillovers |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18726 |
| By: | Carla Ronza (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the allocation of decision-making authority within households across domains. Using the Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations (ISCE), we construct a domain-specific measure of authority as the difference between women’s and men’s reported influence over each decision. We document strong domain specialization: authority is more male-leaning in financial and durable-goods decisions, while routine and childrelated choices are more female-leaning. Women’s authority rises with their income share, but the income–authority gradient steepest in high-stakes financial and durable-goods domains and flatter for routine and child-related choices. Relative education is less uniformly related to authority, with stronger gradients concentrated in finance and electronics. These patterns are robust to a couple-by-domain design with couple and domain fixed effects. Finally, the income–authority gradient is weaker among couples who use joint or mixed account arrangements, suggesting that household financial organization conditions how resources translate into authority. |
| Keywords: | Intrahousehold decision-making; bargaining power; domain specialization. |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:785 |
| By: | Di Nola, Alessandro (University of Birmingham); Wang, Haomin (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Women are more likely than men to work in low-hours jobs, which are associated with lower hourly wages and are disproportionately impacted by minimum wage policies. To quantify the gendered effects, we build and estimate an equilibrium search model that incorporates demographic and firm productivity heterogeneity, as well as jobs differing in both wages and hours requirements. The model replicates observed gender gaps in employment, hours worked, and wages, as well as the positive relationship between hours and hourly wages. We implement the minimum wage in our model with a penalty to address non-compliance. Using this framework, we find that Germany's initial €8.5 minimum wage reallocates women toward higher-hours jobs, reducing non-employment. Firm adjustments, however, dampen this effect by raising wages for low-hours jobs, making them relatively more attractive. Enhanced enforcement of the minimum wage amplifies the upward reallocation for women. Finally, we examine the effects of higher minimum wages, finding that increases up to €14 reduce both the gender wage and hours-worked gaps. At €11, 44.8% of the reduction in the gender income gap is attributable to changes in hours worked. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; gender gaps; equilibrium job posting; hours requirement |
| JEL: | J08 J31 J16 E24 E64 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/8 |
| By: | Simone Ferro; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on primary school students’ cognitive performance in Italy, exploiting daily within-municipality variation in pollution across exam dates. Using INVALSI administrative data on the universe of students over ten cohorts and a specification with individual fixed effects, we find that a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 reduces test scores by 4.4% of a standard deviation. Effects are concentrated in reasoning-intensive items, with no significant effect on knowledge-based items, are stronger for lower-achieving and emotionally vulnerable students, and are substantially mitigated by school mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems. These results highlight the cognitive costs of short-term pollution exposure and the potential of targeted infrastructure investments to reduce environmental inequality in education. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, PM2.5, test scores, memory and reasoning |
| JEL: | J01 I1 I2 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:574 |
| By: | Simone Ferro; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on primary school students' cognitive performance in Italy, exploiting daily within-municipality variation in pollution across exam dates. Using INVALSI administrative data on the universe of students over ten cohorts and a specification with individual fixed effects, we find that a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM2.5 reduces test scores by 4.4% of a standard deviation. Effects are concentrated in reasoning-intensive items, with no significant effect on knowledge-based items, are stronger for lower-achieving and emotionally vulnerable students, and are substantially mitigated by school mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems. These results highlight the cognitive costs of short-term pollution exposure and the potential of targeted infrastructure investments to reduce environmental inequality in education. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, PM2.5, test scores, memory and reasoning |
| JEL: | J01 I1 I2 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12738 |
| By: | Arnaud WITTMER |
| Abstract: | This article examines wage inequalities induced by firm-level collective agreements. While European literature on firm-level collective bargaining often identifies a wage premium associated with firm-level agreements, we seek to go beyond this finding by studying the effects on the distribution of wages within and between firms. To do so, we use the AKM (Abowd-Kramarz-Margolis) estimation method, previously applied by Song et al. (2018) and Babet, Godechot, and Palladino (2025), who studied the variance of individual log hourly wages. Our indicator for firm-level agreement presence carries no direct explanatory power in the year the agreement is signed. However, wage inequalities are systematically higher in firms that have signed a wage agreement over the full sample period, reaching 0.0195 for firms with 50–99 employees, 0.0284 for firms with 100–249 employees, and 0.0487 for firms with 500 or more employees. This difference is driven primarily by the within-firm component of wage inequality, which is higher in firms signing FLAs (Firm-Level-Agreements) and increases further with firm size. These findings suggest that the culture of negotiation within companies, rather than the act of signing an agreement itself, can contribute to a raise of wage inequalities in companies signing FLAs. |
| Keywords: | labour market, collective bargaining, wage inequalities |
| JEL: | D30 D33 J31 J52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-20 |
| By: | Falk, Viktoria; Madestam, Andreas; Simeonova, Emilia |
| Abstract: | This study examines intergenerational correlations in fertility problems and the utilization of infertility treatments and assisted reproductive technologies (ART) using comprehensive Swedish registry data. We document significant intergenerational transmission of subfertility, defined as diminished but not absent reproductive capacity, for both daughters and sons. The intergenerational correlation is independent of parental socioeconomic status. Daughters whose parents reported fertility difficulties are 2.6 percentage points (19.4 percent) more likely to experience fertility problems themselves, while sons whose parents reported fertility difficulties experience a 1.7 percentage point (13.5 percent) increase. Parental fertility issues predict gender-specific treatments in the next generation: subfertility on the male side raises the probability of male-specific treatments (ICSI, donor insemination), while female-side subfertility raises the probability of ovulation stimulation. We find no evidence of assortative mating by parental subfertility background. Couples where at least one partner has a family history of infertility face an 18 percent higher divorce risk. Our findings highlight the substantial personal and social costs of fertility problems and show that they are not solely consequences of lifestyle choices or delayed childbearing but reflect factors that persist across generations. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21476 |
| By: | Bas Gorrens |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing is a central policy instrument for reducing emissions, but governments face a trade-off: faster decarbonization can raise output losses and carbon leakage, while gradual implementa-tion slows emission reductions. This paper studies how EU carbon policies have shaped firms’ adoption of abatement technologies and identifies the optimal trajectory to reach the EU’s 2050 net zero target, particularly in a unilateral context. I develop a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which forward-looking manufacturing firms choose when to adopt discrete abatement technologies under a gradually tightening carbon price. I estimate it using panel data on EU ETS firms from 2005-2019. The model rationalizes the low carbon prices of the 2010s as a consequence of gradual policy and firm anticipation. Emission reduc-tions arise mainly from large, productive, and initially polluting firms. Anticipation of future tightening mitigates half of the short-run output losses in 2025 and two-thirds by 2050, keeping overall output losses below 2%. A moderately faster tightening could cut cumulative emissions by 15% at an additional cost of only 0.11% of output. Finally, because firms anticipate future policy changes, unilateral and global carbon pricing yield nearly identical effects on domestic output and carbon leakage. |
| Keywords: | trade and environment, technology adoption, firm decisions, climate policy, carbon leakage |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:777266 |
| By: | S. Auray; V. Caponi |
| Abstract: | Time-varying electricity pricing is a central lever for managing peak demand as grids decarbonise, yet most credible estimates of how much residential demand responds come from small, shortlived pilots. We provide evidence from a tariff that is neither - the French TEMPO scheme, an operational national tariff that for nearly three decades has priced peak hours four to five times higher than standard on up to 22 pre-announced "Red" winter days. Using national daily consumption for the TEMPO-subscriber segment—nearly one million metering points—linked to the grid operator's assignment calendar and forecasts, we find that Red days cut total residential consumption by about 23% relative to comparable non-Red days, peak-hour consumption by roughly 30%, and off-peak consumption by about 13%. The off-peak decline shows the response is genuine curtailment, not merely load-shifting within the day. These effects, drawn from a tariff already in force at scale, sit at or above the upper end of what critical-peak-pricing experiments have recovered from far smaller samples. The central identification challenge is that the operator assigns Red days to the highest-demand days, so raw colour comparisons confound behaviour with weather. We address this by exploiting three features of the assignment rule that move colour status independently of contemporaneous household demand—renewable-driven variation in net load, a threshold paced mechanically by a fixed seasonal quota, and an end-of-season clause that forces the operator to place its remaining Red days regardless of the forecast (13 of 22 Red days in 2025–26 fell in this forced window). Matching comparable days on a forecast-based demand index and letting the binding quota widen the comparison window yields short-run peak elasticities of −0.23 to −0.27 and total-consumption elasticities of −0.28 to −0.32, stable across three estimators that lean on the rule to differing degrees. The results give tariff designers a real-world benchmark for event-based pricing, and the identification strategy—a quota-forcing regression discontinuity—applies wherever a capped allocation must be exhausted on a deadline. |
| Keywords: | electricity demand, dynamic pricing, time-of-use tariff, demand response, residential consumers, France |
| JEL: | C14 C26 D11 D91 L94 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202608 |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IEB, Spain.); Marianna Magagnoli (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Germany & IEB, Spain.); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain & CEPR.) |
| Abstract: | We estimate how two complementary forms of cycling infrastructure, cycle lanes and bike-sharing stations, capitalize into housing prices in Barcelona. We distinguish the presence of infrastructure from its use, which we capture recovering bike traffic across the entire street network from bike-sharing trip records. We combine geolocated sale and rental listings with digitized records of every cycle-lane segment and bike-sharing station and estimate hedonic price gradients across concentric 50-meter rings rather than a single proximity indicator. We find an asymmetry by infrastructure type and tenure. Sales respond more to stations and rents respond more to cycle lanes; station effects stay positive and fade with distance, whereas lane effects are concentrated nearby and turn negative farther out. We read this through a road-space trade-off that varies with resident characteristics. When we move from the provision of infrastructure to its use, we find that doubling local traffic raises sale prices far more than physical presence alone. This indicates that residents capitalize a well-connected, well-ridden network rather than mere adjacency. Capitalization is positive but modest, too small to support strong gentrification concerns. |
| Keywords: | Cities, cycling, housing prices, consumption amenities, neighborhood composition. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2606 |
| By: | Gautier, Erwan; Savignac, Frederique; Coibion, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Using a new survey of French firms spanning the full 2020–2025 inflation cycle, we document that de-anchoring and passthrough decoupled during the inflation surge: the firms whose expectations drifted furthest from target were precisely those that did not act on them, while firms that embedded expectations into wages and prices remained relatively well anchored. A growing tail of firms expected persistently high inflation — “inflation disasters†— but these were disproportionately smaller, less attentive firms extrapolating local cost pressures. As a result, the surge in expectations did not generate wage-price dynamics, limiting the scope for a self-sustaining inflation spiral. |
| Keywords: | Expectations |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E4 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21445 |
| By: | Gülümser, Dogan (Rockwool foundation Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies hiring and wage setting in new jobs. Using Swedish matched employer-employee data covering 1.7 million new hires, I show that entrants into occupations new to the firm have more labor market experience and are more likely to be hired from other employers. Conditional on entrant characteristics, new jobs have a 3 percent entry-wage premium and exhibit lower turnover than old jobs. The premium declines as firms accumulate occupation-specific employment experience, consistent with hiring uncertainty that resolves as the firm gains experience in the occupation. The new job wage premium is a previously undocumented source of wage dispersion among similar workers. |
| Keywords: | Hiring uncertainty; information frictions; wage setting; match quality |
| JEL: | D83 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_014 |
| By: | Andrea Caria; Daniele Checchi; Dimitri Paolini; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of expanded entertainment television on children's academic performance leveraging the staggered transition from analog to digital TV across Italian provinces between 2008 and 2012, which greatly increased children's entertainment content, and administrative data on standardized test scores for entire cohorts of primary and middle school students. Availability of digital TV reduced literacy and math performance by 0.08 and 0.12 standard deviations, respectively, implying effects of −0.20 and −0.30 standard deviations among children who acquired access to digital TV along the transition. Effects are larger among younger children and among students attending school only in the morning. |
| Keywords: | television, schooling, standardized test scores |
| JEL: | I21 J13 L82 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12743 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, and Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Ege Asutay (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) |
| Abstract: | Populist movements claim to represent an undifferentiated ‘people’, yet every redistributive instrument they enact selects a subset to receive its benefits. This paper uses Italy’s two back-to-back pension reforms as a stress test of that within-people contradiction. The technocratic Fornero Reform (2011) and the populist Quota 100 Reform (2019) share an institutional environment but follow opposite political logics, the second reversing the first. Using SHARE data for 2011–2022, we identify causal effects from age-based thresholds in a difference-in-differences design with individual fixed effects. Quota 100 raises eligible individuals’ retirement probability by 5.1 percentage points, and the response is 12.5 percentage points smaller for women than men, whereas the Fornero effect is delayed and more even across genders. The gender asymmetry survives alternative outcomes, narrower age windows, and pre-COVID restrictions. When a populist coalition redistributes, it reaches the part of the people whose careers satisfy the eligibility design, in keeping with the coalition’s familialism, while younger workers bear the cost through pay-as-you-go financing. The findings move research on populist incumbency from how it damages institutions to who benefits, and clarify the contrasting distributional logics of technocratic and populist governance. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, populism, retirement policy, gender inequality |
| JEL: | D72 H55 J26 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-008 |
| By: | Di Novi; C.; |
| Abstract: | Population ageing and declining availability of informal care are increasing unmet long- term care (LTC) needs across Europe. While previous studies document associations between unmet LTC needs and adverse health outcomes, evidence on their relationship with healthcare access remains limited. This paper examines the relationship between unmet LTC needs and healthcare access among older Europeans, conceptualising LTC as an enabling input that supports daily activities, instrumental tasks, and mobility. Using data from Waves 8 and 9 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), combined with both waves of the SHARE Corona Survey, I focus on individuals aged 65 and over with functional limitations. To address potential endogeneity, I use an instrumental-variable strategy based on variation in informal care availability. The IV estimates suggest that unmet LTC needs are associated with substantially lower use of healthcare services, consistent with potential spill over effects from LTC provision into the healthcare system. These findings suggest that strengthening LTC services may improve equity in healthcare access and help prevent delayed treatment and avoidable health deterioration that ultimately increases pressure on healthcare systems. |
| Keywords: | long-term care (LTC); disability; unmet LTC needs; healthcare access; |
| JEL: | I10 I18 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/09 |
| By: | Oral, Emre; Rabaté, Simon; Seibold, Arthur |
| Abstract: | We study how social forces in families, neighborhoods and workplaces shape retirement behavior. To estimate causal retirement spillovers between individuals, we exploit a pension reform in the Netherlands that creates exogenous variation in peers' retirement ages, and we use administrative data on the full Dutch population. We find large spillovers in couples, primarily due to women reacting to their husband's retirement choices. Average spillovers among siblings, neighbors, and coworkers are modest; however, consistent with homophily in social interactions, sizable effects arise between similar individuals in these groups. Additional evidence suggests both leisure complementarities and the transmission of social norms as mechanisms behind retirement spillovers. Our findings imply that pension reforms have a large social multiplier, amplifying their overall impact on retirement behavior by at least 42%. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21472 |
| By: | Antoine Belgodere (LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]); Georges Casamatta (LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli], TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Since 2015, French municipalities facing high housing market pressures have been allowed to levy a surcharge on the housing tax applied to second homes. Using a synthetic differencein-differences design, we find a substantial decline in the declared number of second homes and a significant increase in housing tax revenues in treated municipalities, but no evidence of a decrease in housing prices. Drawing on dwelling-level transition microdata, we show that most of the apparent reduction in second homes is driven by strategic reclassification for tax purposes rather than genuine changes in occupancy. |
| Keywords: | Synthetic difference-in-differences, Tax reform, Housing taxation, Second homes |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05663707 |