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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Gabriele Letta; Luca Salmasi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro CuoreAuthor-Name: Lorenzo Cappellari); Gilberto Turati (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | We study how uncertainty about future household income affects the decision to continue an ongoing pregnancy. To distinguish the role of uncertainty from that of realized income losses, we exploit the Italian labour-market response to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the temporary suspension of non-essential economic activities substantially increased uncertainty about future economic prospects, workers affected by mandatory closures continued to receive income support through the national short-time work scheme. Using nationwide administrative records on voluntary pregnancy terminations and births, we combine this institutional setting with geographic variation in exposure to temporary work suspensions across municipalities. Differencein- differences estimates show that abortion rates declined throughout Italy following the lockdown, but the decline was significantly smaller in municipalities more exposed to work suspensions. The effect is concentrated among married women outside the labour force and is strongest in municipalities with greater industrial employment. This pattern is consistent with uncertainty affecting households whose economic prospects were more exposed to temporary work suspensions. We find no corresponding effects on births. The estimates suggest that uncertainty about future household income can substantially affect pregnancy decisions even in the absence of permanent job loss. |
| Keywords: | Household income uncertainty; Pregnancy decisions; Abortion; Temporary work suspensions; COVID-19. |
| JEL: | J13 I12 I18 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def157 |
| By: | Vinzenz Pyka; Andr\'e Rieder |
| Abstract: | Employers in Germany argue that collective agreements restrict their flexibility concerning working hours. Using data from the IAB Establishment Panel for the years 2008 to 2024, we investigate working-time adjustments after exit from collective bargaining. We find that exit is associated with only a modest increase in weekly working hours of around 0.3 to 0.6 per cent using fixed-effects and event-study models, corresponding to eight to thirteen additional minutes per week. This adjustment occurs shortly after leaving collective bargaining coverage. We further find no evidence that other margins of working-time adjustment, such as Saturday or Sunday work, are used more extensively after exit. In contrast to previous survey evidence, our findings call into question that working-hours constraints are one of the main drivers of exit from collective bargaining coverage. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.12049 |
| By: | Peter Haan; Julia Schmieder; Izabela Wnuk-Soares |
| Abstract: | We study how immigration affects prices through changes in labor supply. Using policy-driven increases in immigration to Germany and administrative data covering the universe of nursing homes, we find that one additional foreign-born woman per 100 residents reduces nursing-home care prices by 2.6 percent. The price effects are concentrated in more competitive markets. Examining potential mechanisms, we find that immigration lowers labor costs as nursing homes shift toward lower-paid foreign-born workers. We find no evidence of declines in inspection-based measures of quality or of scale effects. Finally, immigration increases the use of informal care, potentially strengthening competitive pressure from the broader care market. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, labor supply, prices, nursing homes |
| JEL: | J61 F22 J30 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26224 |
| By: | Sardo, Alessio; Arlia, Daniela; Cerruti, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | Purpose This paper aims to explore the interaction between labor market reforms and housing policies in Italy, Spain and the UK. Design/methodology/approach By providing a comparative legal analysis of significant policy changes at the macro level and a descriptive overview of the evolution of their main economic determinants – wages and housing prices – at the micro level, the study highlights the socioeconomic impact of these reforms and their contribution to urban disparities. Findings The analysis suggests that the implementation of labor market reforms aimed at increasing flexibility and competitiveness coincided with heightened precarity, particularly for low-wage and nonstandard workers across all countries. Research limitations/implications The analysis does not address causality. Practical implications The paper suggests that stratified labor policy and work deregulation have an impact on urban inequality and wage distribution at sub-city level. Social implications The study argues that these reforms, coupled with macro-events such as the increase in global trades and the advent of ICT, might have exacerbated the socioeconomic inequalities at both national and local levels over the last decades by disfavoring less skilled workers, particularly in large cities. Originality/value The originality of the paper lies in its integrated analysis of labor-market reforms and housing policies as jointly producing urban disparities. Rather than treating wage stagnation, employment precarity and housing unaffordability as separate phenomena, the paper connects them through a comparative framework covering Italy, Spain and the UK. Its contribution is also empirical and spatial: it combines national regulatory trajectories with city-level evidence from Milan, London and Madrid, showing how macro-level reforms translate into uneven urban outcomes. This multi-scalar approach offers a distinctive perspective on the legal, economic and territorial roots of contemporary inequality. |
| Keywords: | European Cities;housing affordability;housing market analysis;housing prices;reforms;wage disparities |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141253 |
| By: | Sevrin Waights; Liliana Cuccu; Maximilian Priem |
| Abstract: | We provide the first estimates of minimum wage effects on the aggregate price level using data on the near-full German consumer basket across four national reforms, 2015-2024. Drawing on a structural model of pricing under imperfect competition, we utilise minimum wage cost shocks rather than the commonly used firm-level ‘bite’ that we show to be biased under strategic complementarity. Labour cost pass-through is 83-94 percent, at the higher end of estimates for other cost shocks. The implied macro-price elasticity is 0.024. The largest increase in October 2022 to €12 raised the aggregate price level by 0.39 percent. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages, Consumer prices, Inflation, Cost pass-through, Strategic complementarity |
| JEL: | E31 J08 J30 J38 L11 |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0112 |
| By: | Guida Ayza Estopà; Bart Cockx; Sébastien Fontenay; Ilan Tojerow |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how financial incentives shape labor supply decisions among disability insurance (DI) recipients who already combine benefits with part-time work. We exploit a distinctive feature of the Belgian Adapted Work Program, in which DI benefits are progressively withdrawn as earnings increase and the marginal withdrawal rate rises sharply at predefined thresholds. Because participants cannot freely adjust their working hours, this setting allows us to estimate how higher implicit taxation affects transitions out of partial work. Using administrative data and a Regression Kink Design, we find that higher implicit tax rates induce exits in two opposite directions: toward full-time employment and back to full DI. A one euro increase in the implicit marginal tax per working day raises the probability of returning to full DI by 3.0 percentage points and of resuming full-time employment by 1.5 percentage points, corresponding to elasticities of 0.84 and 0.85. A simple labor supply framework rationalizes these divergent responses. Our findings show that the financial design of partial-benefit schemes can determine whether partial work serves as a bridge toward full employment or instead leads recipients back to full benefit dependency. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, return-to-work policies, financial incentives, regression kink design |
| JEL: | I13 I38 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13041 |
| By: | Paula González (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Francesca Passarelli (Universidad de Oviedo); Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | Using data on nearly 190, 000 candidates across five Spanish municipal elections (2003–2019), we estimate the causal effect of electoral defeat on party switching. We combine a high-dimensional fixed effects panel model with a regression discontinuity design exploiting the quasi-random assignment of council seats under Spain’s closed-list D’Hondt system. Both approaches yield consistent evidence that not securing a council seat is associated with a higher probability of changing party affiliation by 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points—a 13.5% to 14.5% relative increase. Additionally, regression estimates show that party switching is more strongly linked to better future electoral outcomes among non-elected switchers than among candidates who switch while holding a seat. Our results support the theory that politicians are primarily motivated by office-seeking ambitions and highlight the strategic nature of party switching in local politics. |
| Keywords: | party switching, party labels, political defectors, closed-list systems, politicians, office-seeking ambition, Spain, municipal elections, local randomization, regression discontinuity. |
| JEL: | D72 H11 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:26.03 |
| By: | Andreas Mense; Wolfgang Dauth; Matthias Wrede |
| Abstract: | We investigate the employment effects of job access within cities. To overcome the endogeneity of residential location choices, we exploit the quasi-random allocation of applicants across affordable housing units in five German cities and propose a novel IV strategy. Our job access measure combines proximity to jobs in both geographical and skill space, taking into account potential competition from other workers. We compile a unique administrative dataset comprising the complete labor market biographies of individuals who moved into affordable housing. A one-standard-deviation increase in job access reduces the unemployment hazard of unskilled workers by 3.4 percentage points. We do not find similar effects for skilled workers, who are more likely to own a car and are therefore less geographically constrained. Simulations show that full segregation, with all unskilled allocated to central neighborhoods, would reduce the city-wide unemployment rate of the largest city in our sample, Munich, by 1.3 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | job access, unemployment, urban labor markets, labor supply, affordable housing |
| JEL: | I31 I38 J13 R23 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13040 |
| By: | Davide Arnaudo (Bank of Italy); Vincenzo Cuciniello (Bank of Italy); Giorgio Gobbi (Bank of Italy); Federico Guerra (Bank of Italy); Federico Labianca (Bank of Italy); Valentina Nigro (Bank of Italy); Sara Pinoli (Bank of Italy); Massimiliano Rigon (Bank of Italy); Paola Rossi (Bank of Italy); Federico Maria Signoretti (Bank of Italy); Pietro Tramontano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the Italian private equity and venture capital market. Although total investment more than doubled between 2015 and 2025, the Italian market remains less developed than those of the other main European economies. Private equity investment is strongly oriented towards technology- and knowledge-intensive sectors, with significant participation by foreign funds. The public sector plays a prominent role in fundraising by Italian operators, whereas the contribution of private institutional investors remains relatively limited. Compared with firms in the same sector, size class and geographical area, private equity target firms are larger, more profitable and better capitalized; after turning to private equity, they record faster growth in total assets, employment, and investment, particularly in intangible assets. The further development of private capital markets in Italy could be fostered by a greater involvement of private investors and a wider availability of patient capital to support firms' growth and innovation. |
| Keywords: | private equity, venture capital, firm growth |
| JEL: | G23 G24 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1061_26 |
| By: | István Boza (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); László Czaller (Corvinus University of Budapest; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how workers and employers jointly shape spatial wage disparities across Hungarian local labor markets. We combine longitudinal linked employer–employee administrative data for 2012–2022 with functional local labor markets constructed from district-to-district commuting flows in the 2022 Hungarian Census. Our preferred delineation contains 29 commuting zones and raises the share of employed residents working within the same unit above 90 percent, compared with 72 percent for districts and 81 percent for counties. We estimate an additive worker–employer fixed-effect wage model and decompose wage variation at the individual level, between commuting zones, and within commuting zones. Differences in commuting-zone mean wages account for 2.8 percent of national log-wage variance and 1.1 percent when the Budapest commuting zone is excluded. Although the between-zone component is modest, its structure is systematic: zones with higher average worker effects also tend to have higher average employer wage premia, so the spatial alignment of worker and employer components accounts for an important part of spatial wage differences. Wage dispersion and the relative importance of worker heterogeneity, employer premia, and worker–employer sorting within local labor markets also vary substantially across the country. The results indicate that spatial wage disparities in Hungary reflect not only differences in workers’ earnings potential and the employer premia attached to their jobs, but also how these components are combined across local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | commuting zones; regional wage inequality; linked employer–employee data |
| JEL: | J31 R12 R23 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2615 |
| By: | Yann Coatanlem |
| Abstract: | In order to close the competitiveness gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly in fast-moving technology sectors, firms must have the ability to take elevated risks and reorganize workforces rapidly. However, Germany's strict employment protection regime makes corporate restructuring exceptionally costly. The high “cost of failure” discourages risk-taking, stifles disruptive innovation, and structurally penalizes hiring senior workers. How much does this rigidity actually cost employers, and how can it be mitigated without unraveling Germany's foundational labor protections?To answer these questions, the author of this report constructed a bottom-up cost model using a dataset of 55 large German restructuring programs announced between 2008 and 2025, covering roughly 150, 000 paid exits. The findings are striking: the average cost per exit of restructuring equals 2.49 times an employee's annual salary, driven primarily by expensive early retirement packages and lengthy procedural delays.Addressing this barrier requires targeted legislative action rather than wholesale deregulation. The report proposes a seven-amendment reform package specifically designed for senior high-earners (those with fixed pay above the social security contribution ceiling). By introducing formulaic capped severance, condensing works council notifications to a seven-day window, and shifting incentives away from early retirement, the central estimate suggests that average restructuring costs for this group could be reduced to 1.28 times their annual salary. These reforms, complemented by a Federal Senior Hiring Risk Pool to boost older workforce participation, provide a concrete roadmap to make German restructuring as agile as in flexible economies like Denmark and the U.S. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_59 |
| By: | Graeber, Daniel (DIW Berlin); Meister, Lorenz (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), University of Oxford); Murray, Neil (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Terrorism affects individuals far beyond its immediate victims, with large economic consequences. We estimate the effect of terrorism on risk preferences by merging geocoded panel data with the Global Terrorism Database in a staggered difference-in-differences design comparing those within and beyond 25 kilometers of attacks in Germany. Exposure reduces willingness to take risks by 2 percent of a standard deviation—localized, peaking after one year, dissipating within five—implying welfare losses near 106 million Euro annually. We classify 60, 000 news articles with a fine-tuned language model and separate two media channels: the salience and the emotional tone of coverage. Holding attack severity fixed, responses are concentrated among attacks with more extensive and more negative coverage. The survey data corroborate media transmission—respondents who do not read newspapers do not respond—and point to declining happiness as the emotional mechanism. After severe attacks, self employment falls by 2 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Terrorist attacks, risk preferences, staggered difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | D12 D81 D91 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-27 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the post-2010 expansion of the Hungarian construction sector as a case study of large-scale government intervention in a single market. A political economy framework conceptualises the intervention as two mutually reinforcing policies - expansionary demand (public procurement and housing subsidies) and preferential allocation towards politically connected firms - operating under inelastic supply through two mechanisms: market-level subsidy capitalisation and firm-level rent extraction. Using a structured descriptive case study design, the paper draws on Hungarian Central Statistical Office and Eurostat macroeconomic statistics, firm-level data on Hungary's largest companies (CrefoPort), policy documents, and a regional comparison to assess four propositions derived from the framework. The evidence supports all four: real construction output grew faster than in any regional peer except Romania; construction producer prices persistently outpaced the GDP deflator; ownership of the leading firms shifted towards politically connected domestic owners, whose profitability rose sharply while their exports remained negligible; labour productivity per hour worked returned by 2024 to roughly its 2000 level; and connected firms captured a rising share of sector profits, as the subsidies' value was partly eroded by the price increases they induced. Competing explanations do not jointly account for this configuration. The findings illustrate how combined demand stimulus and favouritism produce extensive growth without efficiency gains. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.03791 |
| By: | Pavese, Caterina (Università di Bologna, CESifo); Meulen, Simon ter (ifo Institute, University of Munich, CESifo); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich, ifo Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, IZA@LISER, and RFBerlin) |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children, schools, integration, educational attainment, contraceptives JEL Classification: I24, I21, J13, J15, O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:826 |
| By: | Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC)) |
| Abstract: | This report assesses the recommendations of the Study on the Retail Distribution Market for Medicines in Spain (E/CNMC/003/15) and the Study on the Wholesale Distribution Market for Medicines (E/CNMC/002/17). The adoption of these recommendations would bring important benefits in terms of better access to pharmaceutical services and medicines, more competitive prices and greater quality and innovation in the sector, all for the benefit of patients, the sustainability of the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) and the well-being of citizens. The degree of follow-up to the CNMC's recommendations in the wholesale sector would be high, if the regulatory reforms that are underway are approved. It is estimated that its introduction could save around 1, 800 million euros per year in pharmaceutical spending in a scenario of moderate increase in competition. In the retail sector, the degree of adherence to the recommendations is low. Based on the experience of Navarre, it is estimated that reducing restrictions on the opening of pharmacies could create, after 10 years, around 20, 000 new pharmacies and 45, 000 new jobs, most of them skilled. |
| Keywords: | regulation, competition, medicines, national health system |
| JEL: | H4 H51 I11 I18 K2 K32 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awo:epaper:ei/02/2025_eng |
| By: | Max Deter; Kalle Kappner; Hans Lueders |
| Abstract: | Does repression silence dissent or push people to leave? We study the arrest of protesters during East Germany's Peaceful Revolution, using novel micro-data from Leipzig. Residents of streets and houses with an arrested protester were more likely to have left their address once the Berlin Wall fell, and exit visa applications rose in the months after an arrest. Nearby protest activity and support for the opposition show no visible decline after an arrest. Our results suggest that repression raised the demand for exit without a visible retreat of voice, and that residents acted on this demand once leaving became possible. |
| Keywords: | protest, repression, emigration, exit visas, East Germany, autocratic breakdown |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13036 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Transition finance has emerged as an approach to financing companies and activities that are not yet aligned with environmental goals but are pursuing credible transition pathways. This paper examines how enabling policies shape the mobilisation of transition finance and the credibility and economic feasibility of corporate transitions. Drawing on case studies of Japan, the European Union and the United Kingdom, a structured review of 167 academic and institutional studies, and a 2026 OECD survey of 121 financial institutions and non-financial companies, it provides new evidence on the conditions under which credible transition pathways can become commercially viable and financeable. The analysis assesses how specific policy instruments and broader features of the policy environment, including policy direction, durability and implementation, interact with sectoral pathways and real-economy factors such as technology costs and maturity, infrastructure availability, market demand and expected revenues. It also considers how cross-border differences in transition-related policy and regulatory frameworks form part of the wider conditions shaping investment and financing. The paper is relevant to policymakers, financial institutions and companies involved in transition-related investment, planning and financing. |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:278-en |
| By: | Isabella Mantel; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demographic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the observed delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:250_mantel_riphahn.rdf |
| By: | Imke Rhoden |
| Abstract: | Mitigation pathways require fossil power plants to retire well before the end of their technical lives, yet retirement decisions are typically derived from cost-minimizing system models rather than from the decision facing the plant's owner. This study investigates the carbon price threshold at which closure becomes more advantageous for an operator, as well as the ongoing costs associated with continued emissions. A finite-horizon Markov decision process is solved plant by plant for the European fossil fleet of 850 units, with a carbon price that moves stochastically and plants that age deterministically. The price process is constructed so that widening its range leaves the expected price unchanged, isolating the effect of uncertainty from the effect of price level. Closure thresholds fall below recent EU allowance prices for all fuels considered, and the sensitive range lies well beneath them, so further price increases are unlikely to be the binding instrument for retiring this fleet. Because fuel costs rather than emissions determine how much margin a carbon price must erode, the least carbon-intensive capacity retires first. Uncertainty raises the thresholds by about a tenth at an unchanged expected price: a credibly stable carbon price retires the same capacity as a volatile price roughly a tenth higher. Policy credibility therefore substitutes for price level. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.07239 |
| By: | Ana Figueiredo; Agnieszka Markiewicz; Elliott Weder |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data from the Netherlands, we decompose the wage penalty of temporary work. Temporary workers earn 28 log points less per hour than permanent workers. Worker fixed effects explain half this gap, while firm pay premia account for 28%. Most of the firm contribution reflects temporary workers sorting into low-paying firms rather than within-firm pay differences. As temporary employment differs substantially across demographic groups, we extend our framework to gender and native-migrant wage gaps, separating contract from firm sorting. Differential exposure to temporary work explains part of the native-migrant firm pay-premia gap but matters little for the gender wage gap. |
| Keywords: | Temporary employment; Firm pay premia; Wage inequality |
| JEL: | J31 J41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26240 |
| By: | Angela Martiradonna |
| Abstract: | Climate policy changes production costs and can reshape the geography of production. We study this spatial channel in a focused model where mobile industrial activity responds to local attractiveness, agglomeration strengthens attractiveness, and carbon policy lowers the profitability of emissions-intensive locations. The model yields an explicit carbon-policy threshold separating spatial instability from stability. When emissions intensity rises with local industrial density, spatial concentration raises aggregate emissions even with unchanged total industrial activity. Embedding these dynamics in a two-jurisdiction policy game creates a wedge between regional and collective incentives: each government values the industrial activity located within its own territory, while aggregate welfare internalizes the effect of policy on economy-wide concentration. With transferable utility, cooperation can select a policy on the stable side of the threshold while the non-cooperative policy lies on the unstable side. A numerical exercise illustrates this regime change. European regional evidence, based on industrial emissions and gross value added at NUTS2 level, documents a positive emissions-activity association and identifies the empirical quantities needed to measure relocation and concentration effects. The analysis links climate cooperation to the spatial organization of production and establishes a benchmark for policy-induced industrial relocation. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.10939 |
| By: | Arjan de Leuw; Marc Francke; Dorinth van Dijk |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of consumer confidence in shaping housing market participation and transaction prices. We combine individual-level measures of consumer confidence with administrative housing transaction data for the Netherlands over the period 2006 to 2024, exploiting within-quarter cross-sectional variation in confidence observed prior to market entry. Consumer confidence is a strong predictor of participation on both sides of the housing market, with substantially larger effects for buyers than for sellers. Conditional on participation and accounting for endogenous selection, buyers with more positive expectations pay 2.2% higher transaction prices in supply-constrained markets, with effects increasing to 4.4% in the most constrained areas. In contrast, seller confidence has no economically meaningful impact on transaction prices. The findings identify two distinct channels through which expectations affect housing market outcomes: by influencing market participation decisions and, conditional on participation, by affecting buyers’ willingness to pay. These results suggest that housing market dynamics are driven not only by valuation differences among active participants but also by confidence-induced selection into the market. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Confidence; Expectations; Market Participation; Transaction Prices; Housing Markets |
| JEL: | C34 D12 D84 G40 R30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:874 |
| By: | Wilko Bolt; Nicole Jonker |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the primary current account that consumers typically use for their everyday shopping and banking transactions remains an effective cross-selling channel for banks amid digitalisation, regulatory reform and increased competition. Using a unique 2024 consumer survey of 2, 326 Dutch consumers, we find no evidence of a broad structural decline in banks’ overall cross-selling opportunities in the Netherlands. The primary current account continues to “anchor†bank-customer relationships. However, this anchoring role varies by product category and consumer segment. Cross-selling has weakened for savings and investment products, while remaining relatively stable for mortgages. Furthermore, digitalisation is not only associated with more multi-banking but also supports financial product acquisition at the consumers’ main bank, suggesting that it does not uniformly erode incumbent banks’ cross-selling capacity. Consumer preferences are central: perceived benefits of single-banking strengthen cross-selling and reduce multi banking, whereas perceived transparency of financial conditions has a modest effect. |
| Keywords: | Consumer behaviour; Retail banking; Cross-selling; Multi-banking; Digitalisation; Transparency |
| JEL: | D14 G21 G28 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:873 |
| By: | N. Meltem Daysal; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Naeim S. Samandari; Emil A. L. Simonsen; Mircea Trandafir |
| Abstract: | Area-level measures of economic opportunity are increasingly used to guide place-based policies. We study whether these measures predict long-run outcomes for a vulnerable population: over 12, 000 refugee children quasi-randomly assigned to municipalities under Denmark's 1986–1998 dispersal policy. We focus on predetermined measures of opportunity available when children arrive and validate them using a mover-exposure design among permanent residents. Moving from a low- to a high-opportunity area (a two-standard-deviation increase) raises adult income rank by 3 percentile points (7.5 percent) and employment by 4 percentage points. It also reduces criminal convictions by 14 percent and teen parenthood by 19 percent, with more modest effects on educational attainment. Economic opportunity predicts crime and teen parenthood more strongly than other area characteristics, including local crime rates. For adult income, area-level inequality is a particularly strong predictor. These findings suggest that social mobility in the areas where refugee children grow up meaningfully shapes their long-term wellbeing. |
| JEL: | D63 J15 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35853 |
| By: | Filip Premik (Department of Economics, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE), Warszawa, Poland); Dan Yu (Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada) |
| Abstract: | We study how heterogeneity in capital inputs affects firm performance. Drawing on detailed data on municipal bus fleets in Poland, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation generated by public procurement and nationally coordinated sales behavior of bus manufacturers to identify the causal effects of variety in fleet composition across brands and other technical dimensions. More heterogeneous fleets exhibit lower vehicle utilization and, for a fixed level of output, require more units of capital and generate higher costs. Our results emphasize that the productive capacity of capital depends on its internal structure, not only on its aggregate quantity or value. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous capital; capital utilization; productivity; fleet composition; organization of production |
| JEL: | D24 L23 L62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:121 |
| By: | Théotime Coudray (UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Sandrine Michel (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry) |
| Abstract: | In the context of the ongoing Energy Transition (ET), power system flexibility has emerged as a critical requirement for integrating increasing shares of Variable Renewable Energies (VREs) into electricity mixes. Because these resources are inherently location-specific, their large-scale deployment calls for a rethinking of how the balance between supply and demand is achieved. In this paper, we propose a multi-regional optimization framework to balance residual load using existing flexibility tools, including dispatchable generation, storage, demand response (DR), and inter-regional exchanges. Applying this framework to a cluster of four southern French regions for the full year 2023, we find that the residual load is met by an overwhelmingly low-carbon dispatchable mix dominated by nuclear baseload, that inter-regional exchanges constitute the primary flexibility channel and generate substantial economic value through congestion rents (∼ 0.91 billion euros). We confirm the robustness of these findings through a dedicated sensitivity analysis spanning the hydro energy budget and the load recovery parameter. These results suggest that introducing an intermediate regional layer for the operation and coordination of power system flexibility could be beneficial from both a technical and an economic perspective. |
| Keywords: | Power System Multi-Scale Variable and Renewable Energies (VRE) Residual Load Flexibility Energy Modeling 1, Power System, Multi-Scale, Variable and Renewable Energies (VRE), Residual Load, Flexibility, Energy Modeling 1 |
| Date: | 2026–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05739909 |
| By: | Volker Nocke; Nicolas Schutz |
| Abstract: | We derive closed-form expressions for the welfare distortions arising from oligopolis tic market power. Our analysis covers competition among multiproduct firms facing constant elasticity of substitution (CES) or multinomial logit demand. The derived formulas rely solely on observed (oligopolistic) firm-level market shares and, under CES demand, the elasticity of substitution. Under CES demand, we fully character ize resource misallocation and extend the analysis to general oligopolistic equilibrium, decomposing welfare losses into within- and between-industry components. Taylor ap proximations connect these losses to standard concentration indices: within-industry misallocation is proportional to the difference between the cubic Hannah–Kay index and the squared Herfindahl index, while between-industry misallocation is proportional to the variance of the Herfindahl index across industries. |
| Keywords: | Market power, oligopoly pricing, misallocation, industry concentration, Herfindahl index, Hannah-Kay indices, sufficient statistics |
| JEL: | L13 D43 D61 E23 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_669v2 |
| By: | Kurt R. Brekke; Odd Rune Straume; Lars Sørgard |
| Abstract: | Book markets are characterised by common distribution through competing bookstores and vertical integration between publishers and bookstore chains, and in many countries publishers are allowed to set fixed book prices (FBP) in the bookstores. Under vertical separation, FBP can reduce retail prices when publishers have sufficiently strong bargaining power, as the elimination of double marginalisation outweighs the loss of intra-brand competition. We show that vertical integration fundamentally changes this trade-off. It eliminates double marginalisation inside the chain, thereby substantially reducing the scope for FBP to lower retail prices. But since FBP eliminates retail price differences on the same title, the allocative distortions are reduced when imposing FBP and consumer welfare and total welfare are no longer aligned. We find that, in the presence of vertical integration, the introduction of FBP is less likely to benefit consumers and more likely to benefit publishers than in an industry with vertical separation. |
| Keywords: | fixed book prices, vertical integration, double common agency |
| JEL: | D43 K21 L42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13042 |
| By: | Banu, Elena; Vinci, Francesca; Best, Lea |
| Abstract: | This paper develops novel firm-level measures of shareholder geographical concentration and examines how elevated home bias in equity holdings affects investment resilience in the euro area. We combine security-level holdings data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS-S) with firm-level financial-statement data from Compustat, and document that equity ownership remains strongly concentrated domestically, with limited cross-border diversification within the monetary union. Using a difference-in-differences design around the COVID-19 shock, combined with a propensity score matching approach, we then analyse whether equity home bias shapes firms’ responses to macroeconomic disruptions. Against an average 16% decline in exports among the firms in the sectors most affected by the pandemic, those with more concentrated, home-biased shareholder bases reduced investment by 20% more than their more diversified peers after the shock. The effect operates mainly through weaker equity resilience, with equity declining by 13%, while sales and bank financing remain comparable. Our findings highlight the benefits of deeper cross-border equity integration for corporate resilience. JEL Classification: F36, G32, G15, D22, E44 |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 shock, cross-border equity integration, difference-in-differences, firm resilience, macroeconomic shocks, shareholder geographical concentration |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263296 |
| By: | Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Paul Bingley; Benjamin Ly Serena |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic inequality in longevity is typically measured using a single indicator, such as education or income. When indicators are imperfect proxies for socioeconomic status, this approach understates inequality. Using multiple indicators can improve measurement by better capturing latent socioeconomic status. We combine education, income, occupation, wealth, and IQ scores using machine learning. Using Danish population-wide data spanning 40 years, we estimate life expectancy at age 40 for the 1942-44 birth cohorts. Individuals at the top of the socioeconomic distribution live nearly 25 years longer than those at the bottom. The estimated gradient is 50-150% steeper with multiple indicators. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy, Inequality, Machine Learning |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26234 |
| By: | Maxime Merli (LARGE - Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Antoine Parent (IXXI - Institut Rhône-Alpin des systèmes complexes - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we unearth a forgotten study of Pierre Des Essars, the director of research at the Banque de France in the late 19th century, enriched with comments from contemporary financial analysts. Des Essars provides the first and only existing example of the actual composition of French individual portfolios during the Belle Époque. By revisiting what is generally taught, our analyses show that many of the intuitions of "finance for normal people" were already present in the financial analysts' writings during the Belle Époque. Specifically, we show in an unprecedented way that these writings prefigure behavioral portfolio theory word for word a century before its emergence. In addition, our findings highlight that this popular science of investment was born from observations of individual portfolios and the objective of providing financial education for the masses. Finally, we reveal strong invariants in the construction of behavioral finance versus standard finance a century apart. |
| Keywords: | N23, N20, G15, G14, behavioral portfolio theory | cognitive psychology | finance for normal people | rationality of individual investors JEL Classification: G11, behavioral portfolio theory | cognitive psychology | finance for normal people | rationality of individual investors JEL Classification: G11 G14 G15 N20 N23 |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05775271 |
| By: | Gert Bijnens; Anders Humlum; Stijn Vanormelingen |
| Abstract: | New machinery has long been argued to raise the relative demand for skilled labor, yet firm-level evidence finds no such shift at investing firms. We resolve this puzzle by looking beyond firm boundaries. Linking Belgian data on capital investments, buyer–supplier transactions, and worker skills, we show that the skill bias of new machinery arises entirely at external suppliers. Following machinery investment spikes, purchases from suppliers raise firms’ total demand for high-STEM workers by 45%, three times the rise for other skill groups, while in-house hiring raises it by less than 5%, evenly across skill groups. This external demand comes first from machine integrators and later from complementary services such as software, and is stronger for smaller firms, lumpier investments, and rapidly advancing capital, consistent with fixed and adjustment costs of hiring high-STEM workers in-house. In a general-equilibrium model estimated on our event studies, the rise in machinery per worker from 2003 to 2021 raises relative demand for high-STEM workers by 8.8 log points and their wage premium by 3.1. Measured on payrolls alone, both would fall. |
| JEL: | E22 J23 J24 J31 L24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35857 |
| By: | Jean-Yves Ottmann (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céleste Fournier (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | POURQUOI, QUE FAIRE ? Le terme d'attractivité n'est pas d'un maniement aisé sous son apparente évidence. Il désigne le manque d'attrait du travail et/ou de l'entreprise, des difficultés de recrutement, d'intégration et/ou de rétention des personnes au travail. Les difficultés commencent au-delà de cette énumération : pourquoi et que faire ? À la lecture des contributions de ce numéro 17 de La Revue des conditions de travail, il est sans nul doute moins question d'analyse des grandes causes du manque d'attractivité que de propositions de moyens et de modes d'action pour remédier à la situation. Ce numéro s'inscrit donc dans une veine résolument pragmatique : qu'est-il possible de faire et comment apporter des réponses aux questions que se posent les acteurs sociaux aux prises avec des difficultés diverses et des irritants prononcés ? De ce point de vue, ce numéro représente une aide pour imaginer comment faire autrement dans certaines situations, même s'il délaisse quelque peu une réflexion générale pour expliquer les réalités observées sur le terrain. Pourtant, il est vrai que les interrogations n'ont pas manqué ces dernières années pour évoquer ce qui secoue le monde du travail et ses évolutions : perte de centralité du travail et méfiance vis-à-vis du salariat, volonté des nouveaux arrivants de mieux être entendus et compris, de ne pas s'engager à n'importe quel prix dans l'activité productive, recherche de sens ou encore d'un meilleur équilibre entre la vie privée et la vie professionnelle, etc. Et à côté de ces éléments qui pourraient facilement être qualifiés de « subjectifs », ces dernières années toujours, le couperet du changement s'est parfois abattu avec force, laissant les organisations et les acteurs parfois désemparés. Il en a été ainsi avec les confinements pendant les périodes pandémiques et l'arrêt presque complet de l'activité économique qui a poussé beaucoup à s'interroger sur le sens de leur engagement dans le travail. Et au moment de la reprise, les démissions de salariés souvent en CDI ont été à la hausse au point de pousser certains à parler de « grande démission ». Pensons aussi à la normalisation du télétravail et à la revendication d'une semaine ramenée à quatre jours effectifs de travail. Évoquons également les incertitudes qui semblent tarauder une part grandissante de la population active : catastrophe écologique avec l'éco-anxiété, disparition de certains métiers sous le coup du développement de l'intelligence artificielle, problèmes économiques grandissants, géopolitique mondiale pour le moins chaotique et lourde de menaces. Pourquoi continuer à travailler dans ces conditions si le pire est quasiment certain ? |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05563293 |