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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Emre Kurt (University of Insubria); Hao Wei (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether migrants and native-born workers respond differently to pension reforms that encourage longer working lives. Using longitudinal data from SHARE Waves 4–9 for Germany and Spain, we construct individual reform exposure based on country-specific reform timing, birth-cohort eligibility, and proximity to retirement age, and estimate models with individual and survey-wave fixed effects. Reform exposure is associated with a lower probability of retirement, with suggestive evidence of an additional decline among migrants. This migrant differential is particularly pronounced in Spain, while the corresponding estimate is small and statistically insignificant in Germany, although formal cross-country tests do not establish a statistically significant difference between the two countries. Complementary analyses indicate that adjustment is concentrated around retirement ages rather than reflecting a broad increase in employment, while evidence for effects on mental health and generalized trust is limited. Overall, the findings suggest that migrants may respond differently to pension reform, but that these differences are concentrated at specific retirement margins and depend on the institutional context |
| Keywords: | Migration, Retirement, Mental Health, Generalized Trust, SHARE |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J26 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-013 |
| By: | Jessica Ordemann |
| Abstract: | Previous literature has mainly focused on either income trajectories of higher education graduates in working life or in retirement. This paper advances this literature by investigating the inequalities of income trajectories at the transition into retirement and compare the trajectories to other educational graduates for the case of Germany. While cumulative advantage theory suggests that education-based income inequalities widen throughout working life, the institutional design of the German pension system fundamentally alters these trajectories. Using data from 1, 741 (11, 740 observations) baby boomers from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) I combine descriptive income trajectories with fixed effects regression and replacement rate analysis. I find a stratified pattern by educational degree in pre- and post-retirement income. However, income inequality by education degree is more pronounced during work life than in retirement: At the transition into retirement income differences are compressed relative to pre-retirement disparities. This compression operates through heterogeneous replacement rates. Higher educated individuals have lower replacement rates than the rest of the educational groups. Germany’s contribution-capped statutory pension system therefore constitutes a structurally induced erosion of the income advantage that higher education generates over a working lifetime. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1243 |
| By: | David Cuberes (Maynooth University); Aitor Lacuesta (Banco de España); Carlos Moreno-Pérez (Banco de España); Daniel Oto-Peralías (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how land ownership concentration shapes the deployment of large-scale renewable energy projects across six European countries (Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands). Using a 5×5 km grid-cell framework with cadastral parcel data, we show that cells with a higher share of area in large parcels (= 10 ha) are substantially more likely to host mega photovoltaic (PV) plants (= 50 ha), with a standardized semi-elasticity of 68% in the pooled sample, consistent across all six countries. Land concentration also drives aggregate solar deployment: a one-standard-deviation increase raises expected PV hectares within a grid cell by 62%, an effect driven almost entirely by the mega-plant margin. By contrast, the effect on wind parks is weaker and heterogeneous, consistent with wind requiring less contiguous land assembly than solar. A specificity test and decomposition analysis corroborate that the assembly mechanism operates specifically at the mega-plant margin, and a horse race between cadastral concentration and farm operational size establishes that ownership, not farming scale, is the operative mechanism. A finer 500 m grid within-municipality analysis corroborates the effect of land concentration on mega PV plants and further reveals that it is attenuated in irrigated areas, where higher agricultural rents raise landowner reservation values. We rationalize these patterns with a conceptual framework in which solar assembly requires unanimous consent from a set of landowners whose number falls with parcel size, while wind requires only a subset. Our findings reveal that land ownership structure is a decisive factor in the energy transition: fragmentation impedes large-scale deployment, while concentration enables it but channels its benefits toward a few large landowners, potentially deepening rural grievances and local opposition. |
| Keywords: | solar plants, photovoltaic plants, land concentration, energy transition, renewable projects |
| JEL: | O13 Q40 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2639e |
| By: | Hervelin, Jérémy; Frouard, Camille |
| Abstract: | France's apprenticeship system, which combines firm-based training with academic instruction, has expanded rapidly in recent years, especially at the university level. Unlike most European countries, France allows apprenticeships all the way up to master's degrees, a trend significantly accelerated by the 2018 Loi pour la liberté de choisir son avenir professionnel. The reform liberalised programme creation, simplified funding, and introduced strong financial incentives, leading to a twelvefold rise in higher education apprenticeships between 2000 and 2025. Drawing on administrative data and Hervelin and Merran (2026), we show that apprentices have higher employment and wage outcomes than non-apprentice students. However, we also show that the expansion of the system has coincided with more contract terminations, poorer matching quality, and potentially sizable windfall effects, as firms rely on subsidised apprentices rather than hire new regular employees. Public expenditure has tripled since 2018, raising concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and programme efficiency. Future policy should prioritise high-school apprenticeships (where matches are stronger) while strengthening links to the university labour market to improve outcomes and ensure sustainable public spending. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:344128 |
| By: | Ludek Kouba (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Michal Madr (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | While previous studies link social capital to environmental attitudes, we take a step further and ask whether trust translates into actual behaviour — voting for a Green party. We propose a post-materialist values channel through which social capital relates to Green electoral support, and examine it across European regions in one of the first studies of trust and observed electoral behaviour. Unlike most work, which relates survey-based attitudes to survey-based vote intentions, our dependent variable is real behaviour: the regional vote share of 41 European Green parties in parliamentary elections (2002–2022), matched with regional trust indicators from the European Social Survey. The estimations confirm our hypothesis that higher trust relates positively to Green electoral results, with highly statistically significant and robust associations for social, institutional, and international trust. A one-standard-deviation rise in regional social trust is associated with a 0.1-standard-deviation rise in Green support. In addition, post-materialist attitudes appear more important than redistributive preferences, and these associations are stronger in high-trust regions. This suggests that, in 21st-century Europe, typical Green voters are less oriented towards the left than previously thought and more driven by post-materialist values. |
| Keywords: | Social capital; trust; attitudes; post-materialist values; Green parties; parliamentary elections; European regions |
| JEL: | A13 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:115_2026 |
| By: | Pyka, Vinzenz; Rieder, André |
| Abstract: | Employers in Germany argue that collective agreements restrict their flexibility concerning working hours. Using data from the IAB Establishment Panel for the years 2008 to 2024, we investigate working-time adjustments after exit from collective bargaining. We find that exit is associated with only a modest increase in weekly working hours of around 0.3 to 0.6 per cent using fixed-effects and event-study models, corresponding to eight to thirteen additional minutes per week. This adjustment occurs shortly after leaving collective bargaining coverage. We further find no evidence that other margins of working-time adjustment, such as Saturday or Sunday work, are used more extensively after exit. In contrast to previous survey evidence, our findings call into question that working-hours constraints are one of the main drivers of exit from collective bargaining coverage. |
| Abstract: | Arbeitgeber in Deutschland argumentieren häufig, dass tarifvertragliche Regelungen ihre Flexibilität bei der Festlegung der Arbeitszeitdauer einschränken. Auf Grundlage des IAB-Betriebspanels 2008-2024 untersuchen wir, wie Betriebe ihre Arbeitszeit nach dem Austritt aus der Tarifbindung anpassen. Fixed-Effectsund Event-Study-Schätzungen zeigen lediglich einen moderaten Anstieg der vereinbarten Wochenarbeitszeit um 0, 3 bis 0, 6 Prozent. Dies entspricht einer Verlängerung der wöchentlichen Arbeitszeit um etwa acht bis dreizehn Minuten. Bemerkenswert ist, dass die Anpassung trotz der Nachwirkung tarifvertraglicher Regelungen überwiegend kurz nach dem Austritt erfolgt. Für andere Anpassungen, etwa Samstags- oder Sonntagsarbeit, finden wir keine Hinweise. Damit stellen unsere Ergebnisse bisherige Befunde aus Unternehmensbefragungen infrage, wonach tarifvertragliche Arbeitszeitregelungen zu den Hauptgründen für einen Austritt aus der Tarifbindung zählen. |
| Keywords: | Collective bargaining, Working hours, Exit from collective bargaining |
| JEL: | J22 J51 J53 J81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:344102 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Jimenez-Martin, Sergi; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina |
| Abstract: | We estimate the health and wellbeing effects of subsidized access to long-term care (LTC). Our analysis exploits the staggered implementation of Spain’s 2007 System of Autonomy and Care for Dependent People (SAAD), which expanded publicly funded and universal LTC subsidies and supports, as well as its subsequent reform. Using two decades worth of administrative and survey data and leveraging exogenous regional and individual-level variation in program exposure, we find that access to SAAD benefits reduces the care receiver’s depressive symptoms by about 1 percentage point, increases its survival probability by 2.6–3 percentage points, and raises its life satisfaction by 0.24–0.50 scale points. Cost-effectiveness estimates indicate that the implied cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained lies below commonly accepted efficiency thresholds for public health spending in Europe. These findings document sizeable health returns and efficiency gains from publicly subsidized LTC provision. |
| Keywords: | lomg-term care subsidies;long-term care supports;old age care;Spain;mortality;cost per QALY;survival;mental health;life satisfaction |
| JEL: | I18 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140775 |
| By: | Jonas Maibom; Trine Schack; Rune Vejlin |
| Abstract: | Using Danish administrative data from 1980–2023, we analyze lifetime income (both earnings and net-income) inequality and its evolution across cohorts. Earnings inequality rises with age from midlife onward and is highest among the low educated and lowest among those with medium education. Differences in employment attachment — such as non-employment and part-time work — account for 30–60 percent of lifetime earnings dispersion, and are particularly important among the low educated. Weak employment attachment is a key driver of lifetime earnings inequality and is closely linked to exposure to adverse shocks such as unemployment and health-related events. Lifetime earnings inequality has risen across cohorts among the low educated, partly through growing dispersion in employment attachment. In moving from earnings to net-income, transfers account for roughly five times as much of the inequality reduction as taxes, but this equalizing effect has weakened over time. Our results highlight the role of employment dynamics and social insurance for lifetime inequality. |
| Keywords: | lifetime earnings inequality, employment attachment, income redistribution, tax and transfer system |
| JEL: | D31 J31 J64 H24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13072 |
| By: | Minniti, Antonio; Prettner, Klaus; Venturini, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We study whether AI innovation changes labor-market polarization by weakening the relative position of high-skilled workers. We develop a CES production framework showing how AI affects the wage-cost ratio between high- and low skilled workers through wage and employment margins. We test the model's predictions using European regional labor-market data and find that AI reduces the relative wage-cost ratio by nearly 7 percent on average, with effects broadly split between wage and employment adjustments. These results are primarily driven by regions in countries highly specialized in AI technologies. Overall, our evidence suggests that AI may counteract the polarization effects associated with over two centuries of technological change. |
| Keywords: | AI; Wage-cost ratio; Employment; CES; DiD |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:91593607 |
| By: | Antonio Minniti (Department of Economics, University of Bologna); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Francesco Venturini (Department of Economics, University of Urbino) |
| Abstract: | We study whether AI innovation changes labor-market polarization by weakening the relative position of high-skilled workers. We develop a CES production framework showing how AI affects the wage-cost ratio between high- and low skilled workers through wage and employment margins. We test the model's predictions using European regional labor-market data and find that AI reduces the relative wage-cost ratio by nearly 7 percent on average, with effects broadly split between wage and employment adjustments. These results are primarily driven by regions in countries highly specialized in AI technologies. Overall, our evidence suggests that AI may counteract the polarization effects associated with over two centuries of technological change. |
| Keywords: | AI, Wage-cost ratio, Employment, CES, DiD |
| JEL: | O3 R1 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp400 |
| By: | Maria Karantali (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece.); Theologos Pantelidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece.); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the evolution of overqualification across 28 European countries and investigates the macroeconomic and labour market factors shaping its persistence and cross-country differences. Using the Phillips–Sul club convergence methodology, we show that young workers in Europe exhibit multiple convergence paths, while experienced workers tend to converge towards a common equilibrium. We then identify the characteristics associated with convergence club membership using an ordered probit model and examine the short-run determinants of overqualification through a System GMM dynamic panel framework with regional interactions. The results highlight substantial heterogeneity across European labour markets: overqualification is persistent over time, and the effects of unemployment and unemployment benefits on skill mismatch vary between northern and peripheral European economies. These findings suggest that overqualification is shaped not only by individual characteristics but also by labour market institutions and macroeconomic conditions, with important implications for education, employment, and skills-matching policies in Europe. |
| Keywords: | overqualification, European labour markets, unemployment, club convergence, system GMM estimation |
| JEL: | J24 J21 I28 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2026_13 |
| By: | Anna Salomons; Cäcilia vom Baur; Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage |
| Abstract: | Does educational content respond to technological advances, and do such changes enable workers to acquire new valuable expertise? We construct a novel database of legally binding training curricula spanning the near universe of vocational training in Germany over five decades, and link curriculum updates to breakthrough technologies using Natural Language Processing. We trace a causal chain from technological change to curriculum content to worker outcomes. Technological change spurs curriculum updates, and training content shifts toward less routine-intensive tasks. This shift occurs predominantly through the emergence of new skills related to social, digital, and problem-solving competencies, rather than the removal of old ones. This within-occupation margin is quantitatively important: curriculum updates account for two-thirds of the overall deroutinization in vocational skill supply over this period. Using administrative employer-employee data and a stacked difference-in-differences design, we show that new-skilled workers earn higher wages, especially in technology-exposed occupations, and are more likely to remain employed in their trained occupation. In contrast, older occupational incumbents experience wage declines, indicating skill obsolescence. These findings highlight the central role of within-occupation skill supply adjustments — not just educational attainment — in meeting evolving labor market demands. |
| Keywords: | technological change, skill updating, skill obsolescence, vocational training, educational content |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13059 |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan; Lukas Harder |
| Abstract: | Progressive pension supplements mechanically reduce the gender pension gap because women receive lower pensions on average. However, labor supply responses may offset these gains and create fiscal externalities. Using German administrative data, we analyze the distributional and welfare effects of a progressive pension supplement. We find no labor supply responses during working life, but small effects on women’s employment and earnings in retirement. The supplement reduces the gender income gap by about two percent, with sizable heterogeneity across pension levels. The marginal value of public funds is 0.83. Means-testing based on household income improves welfare even with low redistributive preferences. |
| Keywords: | gender, pensions, retirement, labor supply, redistribution |
| JEL: | H55 H23 J16 J26 J22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2185 |
| By: | Wildmer Daniel Gregori; Fabio Di Dio; Lorenzo Frattarolo; Maria Martinez-Cillero |
| Abstract: | We study how carbon pricing affects firms’ investment and capital productivity relative to comparable firms not exposed to environmental regulation. Using matched EUTL–Orbis data for European firms over 2005–2020, we estimate the effects of Phase 3 of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on investment, productivity, and profitability through propensity-score matching and two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences regressions. We find that ETS firms invest more than comparable non-ETS firms along both the intensive and extensive margins, while displaying lower measured capital productivity and no significant changes in total factor productivity, profitability, or fixed assets. To interpret this evidence, we develop a two-sector RBC model with abatement capital. In the regulated sector, firms accumulate a durable capital stock that reduces emissions intensity and future permit requirements but does not enter the production function. The model shows how carbon pricing can generate stronger investment in regulated firms while lowering measured capital productivity, highlighting the importance of distinguishing productive from compliance-related capital when evaluating the effects of environmental policy. |
| JEL: | E22 E32 Q52 Q58 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202608 |
| By: | Costa, Eduardo; Gonçalves, Judite; Martins, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Healthcare systems across Europe are facing increasing workforce shortages. This paper aims to estimate the impact of physicians' and nurses' retirements on hospital operations and inpatient outcomes. The analysis draws on 2006-2018 NHS records (covering all discharges from Portugal's public hospitals) merged with Social Security records (covering all public servant retirements) at the hospital-month level and panel fixed-effects models with case-mix controls. Semi-structured interviews with health professionals and hospital executives contextualize findings. Our study shows that retirements, especially of physicians, are associated with short-term shifts in hospital activity, particularly a reduction in the share of inpatient-care admissions and changes in specific admission categories, rather than a broad reduction in total admissions. However, short-term patient outcomes remain stable, as resources are reallocated to critical cases. |
| Keywords: | health professionals' retirement, physicians, nurses, hospital admissions, hospital mortality, readmission rates |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1831 |
| By: | Romanyuk, Andriy; Corsini, Alberto; Ganguli, Ina; Lissoni, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the introduction of the first visa scheme for foreign researchers in France (the carte de sejour "scientifique-chercheur") introduced in 1998 on the post-graduation stay rates of foreign-born doctoral graduates at French universities. We build a novel dataset containing all doctoral graduates in STEM disciplines from 1992 to 2002 and their scientific publications. We distinguish between non-EU graduates, to whom the carte de sejour applied, and French or other EU graduates, to whom it did not using a name-based ethnicity analysis. We then assess short- and long-term career stay outcomes using graduates’ post-PhD publication activity and affiliation locations, and identify those who later become doctoral supervisors themselves. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy with repeated cross-sectional cohorts of graduates, we find no meaningful effects of the visa policy. These results are robust across the different career stay outcomes and alternative implementations of our name analysis. We discuss three possible reasons for this lack of impact, and its implications for talent attraction policies in Europe. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Migration policy, Scientific research, Graduate studies |
| JEL: | F22 K37 O15 O3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344145 |
| By: | Oscar Y. Romero Goyenche; Deyu Li; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | There is increasing interest in studying how multi-system innovation (MSI) emerge across regions. Understanding it requires attention to the co-evolutionary dynamics among systems and to their spatial co-location. Integrating insights from the Sustainability Transition and Evolutionary Economic Geography literatures, a framework is proposed to study the critical emergence of innovation at the intersection of digital and green technologies, as outlined in the European twin transition agenda. Despite numerous studies, it remains unclear how specific components and capabilities recombine within regions to support the emergence of twin technologies. This framework is explored empirically in a study of 271 European NUTS-2 regions, using a random forest classification model to identify which configurations of regional technological trajectories most strongly support the emergence of twin technologies during the period 2000-2021. Using patent data, the results show that digital and green follow different trajectories into twin regional specialisation. Digital technologies contribute primarily through relatedness among themselves, while green technologies contribute when co-located with digital ones, with Artificial Intelligence being the most consistent interaction. These findings inform place-based regional innovation strategies by showing that the emergence of twin technologies depends not only on the accumulation of digital and green knowledge bases, but also on the specific configurations through which regions enter the twin technological space. |
| Keywords: | Multi-system innovation; Cross-system interaction; green transition; digital transition; twin transition; Evolutionary Economic Geography. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2624 |
| By: | Hellsten, Mark (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | Despite growing policy interest in AI workforce development, surprisingly little is known about what defines these workers, or indeed if they differ from their occupational peers. Using a novel matched vacancy-hire dataset linking Swedish job postings to the individuals hired to fill them, drawn from register data on the entire Swedish population, I study the characteristics of workers who develop and apply AI. Observable traits including high cognitive ability, a tertiary degree in STEM subjects, and a recent migrant background largely explain occupational sorting. Of these, only higher education, prior AI experience, and a science degree set them apart within occupation. I then use earnings as a window onto unobservable differences: AI workers earn approximately 5% more than their peers, entirely explained by firm-level wages. However, AI workers with a doctorate degree stand out sharply in both traits and earnings, indicating that AI workers split into segments that differ by the complexity of their skills and tasks. Taken together, these results point to two distinct policy levers: the supply of average AI workers, termed AI integrators, can be expanded via STEM education participation, while the elite AI developers are supplied by researchers moving to the private sector. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Wage premium; Labor demand; Skills; Technology diffusion |
| JEL: | D22 J24 M20 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0393 |
| By: | Riccardo Bertamini; Hugo M. V. Arsenio; Lorenzo Caputi; Andrea Procopio |
| Abstract: | AI dashboards increasingly shape economic debate, yet their headline movements often conceal what changed. For a ratio, the same rise can reflect numerator growth, denominator decline, or both. This ambiguity creates structural non-identification: adding observations or richer fixed effects cannot recover the missing information. We propose three propositions showing that a relative-index regression blends the causal effect of interest with co-movement between focal and aggregate activity and shocks shared with the outcome. These components can give the coefficient either sign under a zero effect, or erase it under a nonzero effect. Publishing denominator levels changes what can be learned by removing the co-movement channel exactly, although shared-shock confounding remains. The problem extends to power: if most identifying variation comes from a handful of units, those units determine what the design can detect, however large the nominal sample looks. At a fixed standard error, the minimum detectable effect diverges as the effective cluster count approaches one, leaving a null result uninformative. We apply this framework to OECD.AI's hiring index and Eurostat employment across 24-27 European countries, where the detection floor exceeds the reported association. In a refreshed panel, that association disappears once the 2021 survey break is excluded. Ratio indices can still reveal concentration, timing, and co-movement, but establishing displacement requires more; our framework turns that boundary into a practical standard by making denominator levels a minimum disclosure requirement. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.23971 |
| By: | Kılınç, Ayşegül; Elkerbout, Milan (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | On July 17, 2026, the European Commission published a proposal to revise the EU emissions trading system (ETS). ETS revisions tend to happen roughly every five years to account for changes in the European Union’s overall climate policy and the global economy. Earlier this year, the European Union confirmed its climate target for 2040 of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90 percent relative to 1990. In this issue brief, we review some of the key proposed changes to the ETS design, especially as related to allowance allocation and other design elements that are relevant to industrial product regulation. |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-08 |
| By: | Nilsson, Magnus (Department of Business Administration, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper ties together two literatures which explain regional anchoring from different perspectives. One is based on the role of large organizations in anchoring an industry in a region, the other is systemic and deals with anchoring processes that circulate and embed knowledge. Each leaves implicit what the other explains. The aim is to understand how anchor effects and regional anchoring capacity interact across different regional contexts. Illustrative cases from three Swedish regions show how the two both diverge from and reinforce each other, anchor without anchoring and anchoring without an anchor, depending on regional configuration and anchor control. |
| Keywords: | Anchor firms; Anchoring; External control; Resilience; Periphery |
| JEL: | L22 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_013 |
| By: | Gößl, Thomas; Makles, Anna; Schneider, Kerstin; Zuchanek, Kevin J. |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of losing admission lotteries in a centralized secondary school choice system with early academic tracking. Using administrative student panel data from Bremen, Germany, we exploit random tie-breaking within priority groups under an immediate acceptance mechanism. Losing admission lotteriessubstantially changesstudents' educational environment: lottery losers travel farther to school, experience greater disruption of peer networks, and attend schools with less advantaged socioeconomic compositions and lower average academic performance. We also document selective negative effects on standardised test scores and school-leaving certificates. While students with a migration background are much more likely to experience a lottery loss because they enter competitive lottery pools more frequently, native German students tend to experience larger relative changes in their school environment and are more likely to mitigate these costs by opting out of the public system and enrolling in private schools. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen die Folgen einer Niederlage bei Zulassungslotterien in einem zentralisierten Schulwahlsystem mit früher Differenzierung nach Schulformen. Auf Grundlage administrativer Schülerpaneldaten aus Bremen nutzen wir die zufällige Vergabe von Schulplätzen innerhalb gleicher Prioritätsgruppen im Rahmen eines Immediate-Acceptance-Verfahrens, um die Folgen einer Lotterieniederlage zu identifizieren. Eine Niederlage bei der Zulassungslotterie verändert das schulische Umfeld erheblich: Betroffene Schülerinnen und Schüler haben längere Schulwege, werden häufiger von ihren bisherigen Mitschülerinnen und Mitschülern getrennt und besuchen Schulen mit einer sozioökonomisch weniger begünstigten Schülerschaft und einem geringeren durchschnittlichen Leistungsniveau. Darüber hinaus zeigen sich punktuelle negative Effekte auf standardisierte Testergebnisse und erreichte Schulabschlüsse. Schülerinnen und Schüler mit Migrationshintergrund verlieren deutlich häufiger eine Zulassungslotterie, da sie häufiger an Lotterien um stark nachgefragte Schulplätze teilnehmen. Schülerinnen und Schüler ohne Migrationshintergrund erfahren infolge einer Lotterieniederlage hingegen tendenziell größere relative Veränderungen ihres schulischen Umfelds und wechseln häufiger auf eine Privatschule, um die damit verbundenen Kosten abzumildern. |
| Keywords: | two-sided matching, school choice, immediate acceptance, admission lotteries, non-compliance |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I28 C78 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:344105 |
| By: | Efi Vasileiou (BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne, CEREN - Centre de Recherche sur les Entreprises - BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne); Lara Agnoli (BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne, CEREN - Centre de Recherche sur les Entreprises - BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne); Nikos Georgantzis (BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne, CEREN - Centre de Recherche sur les Entreprises - BSB - Burgundy School of Business (BSB) - ESC Dijon-Bourgogne); María Ramos-García (Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas de Extremadura); Maria Dolores Osuna (Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas de Extremadura); Nuria Ferreiro-Domínguez (USC - Universidade de Santiago de Compostela [España] = University of Santiago de Compostela [Spain] = Université de Saint-Jacques-de-Compostelle [Espagne]); María Rosa Mosquera-Losada (USC - Universidade de Santiago de Compostela [España] = University of Santiago de Compostela [Spain] = Université de Saint-Jacques-de-Compostelle [Espagne]); Ioannis Gazoulis (Agricultural University of Athens); Ilias Travlos (Agricultural University of Athens); Milena Simić (MRIZP - Maize Research Institute Zemun Polje); Milan Brankov (MRIZP - Maize Research Institute Zemun Polje); Vesna Dragičević (MRIZP - Maize Research Institute Zemun Polje); Jessica Girardi (Latvian Rural Advisory and Training Centre); Leonardo Sulas (CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Federico Sanna (CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Antonino Modaffari (Italian Association of Organic Agriculture); Luis Urra Hernandez; Stefano Bortolussi (Italian Association of Organic Agriculture); Andria Tsalakou (Cyprus University of Technology); Michalakis Christoforou (Cyprus University of Technology); Dimitris Tsaltas (Cyprus University of Technology); Alexandros Tataridas (UC - Universidade de Coimbra = University of Coimbra [Portugal]); Helena Freitas (UC - Universidade de Coimbra = University of Coimbra [Portugal]) |
| Abstract: | We present a survey-based intervention through an informative nudge on Agroecological Weed Management (AWM). Data are based on 405 responses by European farmers. An adverse effect of the informational nudge is found. Learning the consequences of the desired practice may nudge the farmer against rather than in favor of adopting it. The effect depends on the current practices adopted, the farmer's experience, education, age and gender. |
| Keywords: | Informative Nudges, Agroecology, Weed Management, Sustainability, Herbicides |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05703511 |
| By: | Audrey DUMAS (Université de Perpignan, CDED, 52 Avenue Villeneuve, Perpignan F-66000, France); Kristiaan KERSTENS (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France); Poleth VEGA RUALES (Université de Perpignan, CDED, 52 Avenue Villeneuve, Perpignan F-66000, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gender pay gap by focusing on the glass ceiling and sticky floor effects. First, we use parametric methods based on the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition which measure the adjusted average wage difference between men and women. Second, for comparison, we propose an original approach based on a nonparametric double hedonic wage frontier. This method evaluates how far each individual’s wage is from both the maximum (upper frontier) and minimum (lower frontier) potential salary they could obtain given their characteristics, thereby capturing the glass ceiling and sticky floor effects, respectively. Using 2022 French labour-market data, the nonparametric analysis shows that the gender pay gap is larger than what parametric methods suggest. We confirm that the glass ceiling effect is the more severe issue. Financial and insurance activities display the strongest glass ceiling and sticky floor effects, while employment in the public sector offers women better protection from these inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, Luenberger indicator, glass ceiling, sticky floor |
| JEL: | C14 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202603 |
| By: | Caterina Pavese (University of Bologna); Simon ter Meulen (ifo Institute, LMU Munich); Ludger Woessmann (LMU Munich, ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children; schools; integration; educational attainment; contraceptives; |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:588 |
| By: | Kevin André Pineda-Hernández; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms’ profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. It therefore appears that firms share their profits equally with their employees, regardless of their origin. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants’ wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Rent sharing; natives; first- and second-generation immigrants; matched employer-employee data; wage decompositions; instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/414982 |
| By: | Giulia Bovini (Bank of Italy); Raffaella Nizzi (Bank of Italy); Gaetano Basso (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the institutional framework for national collective bargaining and examines the trends in negotiated wages between 2000 and 2025, using Banca d'Italia's database on the 50 most representative collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the non-farm private sector. The bargaining framework allows for substantial flexibility in sector-level negotiations, both in the timing of renewals and in determining wage increases and any adjustments for deviations between expected and actual inflation. Over the past 25 years, negotiated wages increased by 61.2 per cent overall in nominal terms, on average across sectors, but declined by 1.3 per cent in real terms, mainly owing to the high inflation recorded in 2021-23. The loss in the purchasing power of negotiated wages was more pronounced in private services, where delays in CBA renewals were longer. The analysis of the relationship between negotiated and actual wages suggests that second-level bargaining partly compensated workers during these delays. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, negotiated wages, wage dynamics, inflation |
| JEL: | J31 J52 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1070_26 |
| By: | Tim Lohse; Salmai Qari; Andreas Stotland; Tobias Börger; Jürgen Meyerhoff |
| Abstract: | Collective defense is a classic public good, yet alliance burden-sharing has almost exclusively been studied at the state level. We investigate its micro-level foundations using original survey data from France, Germany, and Poland, in which respondents report their willingness to defend four targets: their own country, the other two countries, and NATO's eastern flank. Using stacked logit models, we exploit this within-person design to identify defense hierarchies, derive solidarity gaps across defense targets, and examine both the determinants of willingness to defend and the factors that widen or narrow these gaps. We find a pronounced defense hierarchy in all three countries, with homeland defense exceeding alliance defense by 13-41 percentage points, consistent with citizen-level free-riding. Willingness to defend is systematically higher among respondents who perceive a stronger Russian threat (+8.0 percentage points), are aware of the Weimar Triangle (+10.2), have completed mandatory military service (+9.0), or have personal military contacts (+7.3). Yet the resulting solidarity gaps are far from fixed. Where citizens trust the governments of the other countries and perceive them as contributing their fair share to collective defense, these gaps narrow by up to four fifths. |
| Keywords: | willingness to defend, solidarity gap, burden-sharing, collective defense, alliance cohesion, NATO's eastern flank |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H41 H56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13060 |
| By: | José García-Montalvo |
| Abstract: | Do housing markets price flood risk only when a disaster makes it salient? I combine 3.4 million notarial housing transactions in Spain (2007–2025) with official flood-hazard maps and use the October 2024 Valencia DANA, which killed 232 people, as a nationwide shock to the salience of long-available risk information. After the DANA, prices per square meter in 10-year flood zones fell by about 8 % relative to unexposed dwellings, even outside the affected municipalities; repeat-sales estimates imply a decrease of 4-5 %. Before the event, these zones sold at no discount. Within the affected municipalities, demand shifted toward nearby safe housing, increasing prices in those areas and decreasing housing prices in affected areas. |
| Keywords: | capitalization, climate change, flood risk, housing prices, natural disasters, risk salience, valencia |
| JEL: | Q54 R31 Q51 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1600 |
| By: | Peter Lindner (Economic Analysis Division); Thomas Y. Mathä; Maximilian Propst (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Giuseppe Pulina; Michael Ziegelmeyer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how households react when property prices change. Using a randomised survey experiment in Austria, it shows that lower prices raise renters’ willingness to buy and higher prices raise owners’ willingness to sell. A dynamic model for renters helps explain these choices: the bigger the gap between a renter’s reservation price and the offered price, the more likely the offer is accepted. Overall, willingness to transact remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Household Finance, Tenure, Property, Randomised Control Trial, HFCS |
| JEL: | D14 E43 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:283 |
| By: | Tiantian REN (Corresponding author: School of Business, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China); Kristiaan KERSTENS (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, Lille F-59000, France); Pieter Jan KERSTENS (Data & Analytics Competence Center, Flemish Institute for Technological Research, 2400 Mol, Belgium); Albane Christine TARNAUD (IESEG School of Management, Lille F-59000, France) |
| Abstract: | This contribution introduces a comprehensive multi-moment and multi-time nonparametric frontier framework for mutual fund rating and selection. Without limiting ourselves to traditional central moments, we systematically integrate central moments, L-moments, and truncated Lmoments into the multi-moment and multi-time frontier rating models. To validate out-ofsample performance of the proposed models, we design a novel baseline approach within a buy-and-hold backtesting framework ensuring that any outperformance stems from the rating capability rather than pure luck. Applying this framework to a large database of 713 European equity mutual funds yields three key findings. First, the robust L-moments provides a better balance between total returns and maximum drawdown compared to the central moments and truncated L-moments. Second, incorporating higher-order moments improves both total returns and maximum drawdown. Finally, the nonconvex rating models demonstrate the strongest statistical significance in providing superior maximum drawdown, whereas convex rating models tend to favour aggressive, higher-risk mutual funds. |
| Keywords: | DataEnvelopment Analysis; Free Disposal Hull; Shortage Function; Robust Moments; Frontier; Fund Rating |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e20260914 |
| By: | Olivier Charlot; Franck Malherbet; Eloise Menestrier (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Le recours aux contrats temporaires constitue une source majeure de flexibilité sur les marchés du travail européens, mais ses déterminants du côté des entreprises et ses interactions avec les institutions restent encore imparfaitement compris. Cet article propose une synthèse de la littérature récente sur ces questions en adoptant le point de vue des entreprises. Trois enseignements principaux se dégagent. Premièrement, le recours aux contrats temporaires est fortement hétérogène entre secteurs et entre entreprises et peut, dans certains cas, constituer un mode durable d’organisation de la main-d’oeuvre, notamment à travers des réembauches répétées. Deuxièmement, les choix contractuels résultent de l’interaction entre les besoins et les caractéristiques des entreprises et l’environnement institutionnel dans lequel elles opèrent : protection de l’emploi, assurance chômage, salaire minimum, négociation collective et pouvoir de marché des employeurs. Enfin, les réformes visant à réduire le dualisme contractuel produisent souvent des ajustements sur plusieurs marges. Leurs effets agrégés peuvent ainsi différer sensiblement de ceux observés pour les seules entreprises directement concernées, en raison des substitutions entre formes d’emploi et des réallocations entre entreprises. |
| Keywords: | contrats à durée déterminée, entreprises, protection de l’emploi, assurance chômage, salaire minimum, réformes du marché du travail |
| JEL: | J41 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-16 |
| By: | Max Deter (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Kalle Kappner (LMU Munich, HU Berlin); Hans Lueders (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Does repression silence dissent or push people to leave? We study the arrest of protesters during East Germany's Peaceful Revolution, using novel micro-data from Leipzig. Residents of streets and houses with an arrested protester were more likely to have left their address once the Berlin Wall fell, and exit visa applications rose in the months after an arrest. Nearby protest activity and support for the opposition show no visible decline after an arrest. Our results suggest that repression raised the demand for exit without a visible retreat of voice, and that residents acted on this demand once leaving became possible. |
| Keywords: | protest; repression; emigration; exit visas; east germany; autocratic breakdown; |
| JEL: | H10 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2026–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:587 |
| By: | Pauline Carry; Claire Montialoux; Elio Nimier-David; Alexandra Roulet; Nina Roussille |
| Abstract: | Do shorter workweeks generate work-sharing and productivity gains, as intended by policymakers? We study France’s pay-preserving reduction in the workweek from 39 to 35 hours, bundled with employer payroll tax cuts. We first exploit the staggered implementation by firm size to identify the impact of the reform package. We then use differential exposure to the hours cut and tax cut to separate their effects. We combine matched employer-employee, balance-sheet, and survey data to study worker, firm, and local labor market effects. The reform package left employment unchanged. This zero masks large offsetting effects: absent the tax cuts, the shorter workweek would have reduced employment by 3.8%. The effects are skill-biased, raising employment among managers and professionals while reducing it among other employees. Finally, shorter hours raised total factor productivity by 2%, limiting the output decline to 1% despite a 6% fall in total hours. Surveys point to work intensification and organizational changes as potential drivers of productivity gains. |
| JEL: | J08 J22 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35917 |
| By: | Maxime Le Bihan (UNEDIC); Brice Fabre (UNEDIC) |
| Abstract: | En octobre 2021, une réforme du calcul des allocations chômage a eu pour conséquence tout à la fois de réduire l'allocation journalière et d'augmenter la durée potentielle d'indemnisation des chômeurs ayant connu des parcours d'emploi discontinus. Dans cet article nous montrons que ce changement de régime a été suivi d'une accélération du retour à l'emploi des allocataires concernés : la proportion d'entre eux retrouvant un emploi dans les six mois suivant leur fin de contrat est entre 3, 2 et 6, 8 points de pourcentage plus élevée du fait de la réforme. Cet effet est tiré par une hausse des contrats temporaires de moins de six mois. Plus le parcours de l'individu est discontinu avant sa perte d'emploi, plus l'effet est important. Des données complémentaires d'enquête révèlent une pression financière plus importante et des stratégies de recherche d'emploi plus ouvertes pour le public touché que pour le public non touché. |
| Keywords: | quality of work, unemployment insurance, employment histories, qualité de l'emploi, trajectoires d'emploi, assurance chômage |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05797479 |
| By: | Sherstyuk, Nicole |
| Abstract: | Following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine's EU accession process has advanced rapidly, supported by substantial funding through the Ukraine Facility. This paper examines how accession is shaping Ukraine's social policy trajectory. Using a neoinstitutionalist framework focused on the interaction between formal and informal institutions, it analyses the human capital chapter of the Ukraine Plan against the background of Ukraine's fragmented social protection system and the EU's evolving enlargement priorities. The analysis finds that EU conditionality strongly reinforces rule-of-law and economic benchmarks, while the social principles of the European Pillar of Social Rights remain largely non-binding. At the same time, the securitisation of accession has directed early investment towards priorities aligned with broader European strategic interests. Reforms such as the transition to a purchasing-based model of social services introduce market-oriented governance into a system characterised by entrenched informality and limited administrative capacity. This produces a hybrid welfare configuration that fits neither established welfare-state typologies nor the conventional post-communist regime type, raising doubts about whether accessiondriven reform can generate substantive institutional change rather than formal compliance. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, EU accession, social policy, welfare state, Ukraine Facility, informal institutions |
| JEL: | H55 I38 P30 F55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:344091 |
| By: | Hanzhe Xing; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Carbon border adjustment mechanism, EU ETS, CN ETS, UK ETS |
| JEL: | Q51 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2622 |
| By: | Guillaume Chapelle; Julia Paul-Venturine; Camille Urvoy (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | When a national government relaxes a local regulation, do local ocials comply, or find other ways to keep the same rules in place? We study a 2014 French reform that abolished floor area ratios (FAR), a widely used cap on building density, with the explicit goal of expanding housing construction. We assemble a new geospatial panel tracking three zoning tools floor area ratios, building heights, and coverage ratios | over 15 years across 118 municipalities in the Paris region, linked to building permits, housing stock, and transaction prices. Comparing municipalities where FAR existed before the reform to those where it did not, we show that local governments o set the deregulation by tightening the two instruments they retained: maximum heights fell, coverage ratios tightened, and permit denials rose. Density did not increase in previously regulated areas, and we detect no e ect on prices, consistent with the limited change in supply. The regulatory tightening was strongest where mayors faced closer elections and where property values are higher, not where mayors belong to parties opposing the reforming government, pointing to electoral accountability rather than partisanship. Top-down deregulation can therefore be substantially undercut when local governments retain complementary instruments, suggesting reforms must either limit local discretion directly or realign local incentives. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, Fiscal federalism, Local political incentives, Upzoning, Land use regulations |
| JEL: | H77 R52 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-12 |
| By: | Matthew Dey; Emin Dinlersoz; Lucia Foster; Cheryl Grim; John Haltiwanger; Peter B. Meyer; Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia; Aditya Pande; Martha Stinson; Sean Wang; Zoltan Wolf |
| Abstract: | Measures of exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) are widely used to study where AI is likely to affect firm and worker outcomes, yet limited evidence exists on how closely exposure relates to realized AI adoption at the firm level. We examine this relationship by linking 14 firm-level exposure measures, constructed from occupational exposure estimates in the literature and occupational employment shares from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program, to direct measures of firm AI adoption from the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey. Exposure is positively and statistically significantly associated with adoption, but explains only a modest share of its variation. The strength of the relationship varies considerably across standardized exposure measures: a one-standard-deviation increase in firm-level exposure is associated with a 4–11 percentage point higher firm adoption probability, falling to 1–8 percentage points after controlling for year and sub-sector fixed effects. The exposure–adoption relationship is also heterogeneous across firm-size classes and sectors. Exposure is thus an informative but incomplete signal of adoption. More broadly, the results have implications for the interpretation of exposure-based measures in studies of the economic effects of AI. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, AI adoption, AI exposure, firm-level data, occupational mix |
| JEL: | O33 D22 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-61 |
| By: | N. Meltem Daysal; Joseph J. Doyle; Naeim Samandaril; Emil Simonsen; Mircea Trandafir |
| Abstract: | Area-level measures of economic opportunity are increasingly used to guide place-based policies. We study whether these measures predict long-run outcomes for a vulnerable population: over 12, 000 refugee children quasi-randomly assigned to municipalities under Denmark's 1986–1998 dispersal policy. We focus on predetermined measures of opportunity available when children arrive and validate them using a mover-exposure design among permanent residents. Moving from a low- to a high-opportunity area (a two-standard-deviation increase) raises adult income rank by 3 percentile points (7.5 percent) and employment by 4 percentage points. It also reduces criminal convictions by 14 percent and teen parenthood by 19 percent, with more modest effects on educational attainment. Economic opportunity predicts crime and teen parenthood more strongly than other area characteristics, including local crime rates. For adult income, area-level inequality is a particularly strong predictor. These findings suggest that social mobility in the areas where refugee children grow up meaningfully shapes their long-term wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | refugees, economic opportunity, inequality, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13049 |
| By: | Boettger, Priyanka; Nakou, Eleni; Kinsley, Thomas; Buerke, Michael; Wild, Eva Maria; Sossalla, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Background and objective: Empagliflozin reduced heart failure (HF) hospitalizations after acute myocardial infarction (MI) in EMPACT-MI without a mortality benefit. We assessed whether HF morbidity prevention generates long-term economic value from the German statutory health insurance perspective. Methods: We developed a monthly cohort Markov model over a lifetime horizon comparing early empagliflozin plus standard care with standard care in post-MI patients at increased HF risk. The base case applied the EMPACT-MI hazard ratio of 0.77 for first HF hospitalization, assumed no direct mortality benefit, and modelled 24 months of treatment. Costs were in 2026 euros. The primary analysis covered 17.9 months; exploratory lifetime outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Early empagliflozin gained 0.0315 QALYs at €1, 418 incremental cost (ICER €45, 100/QALY) and avoided 52.0 lifetime HF hospitalizations per 1000 patients. The probability of cost-effectiveness was 16.2%, 55.2%, and 79.7% at €30, 000, €50, 000, and €80, 000/QALY, respectively. Price reductions of 25% and 50% lowered the ICER to €32, 300/QALY and €19, 500/QALY. The maximum annual price compatible with €30, 000/QALY was €607. Results were most sensitive to the HF hospitalization effect, drug price, and baseline HF risk. A trial-anchored analysis using the EMPACT-MI placebo event and mortality rates yielded a similar ICER (€47, 200/QALY). Conclusions: Early empagliflozin generated modest projected QALY gains, predominantly through modelled indirect survival gains, at higher lifetime costs.Economic value was conditional, depending on willingness-to-pay, net price, and absolute HF risk, with the most favorable profile at lower net prices and in HF-risk-enriched patients. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141384 |
| By: | Beata Smarzynska Javorcik; Alessia Lo Turco; Daniela Maggioni; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and how foreign acquisitions improve occupational safety. Using linked administrative data on French manufacturing plants over 2003-2017 and event studies on a matched sample, we find that foreign acquisitions reduce accident rates and workdays lost. Safety gains coincide with expanded managerial hierarchies, greater technical-manager presence, foreign manager hiring, and worker training. We find little evidence supporting automation, task reallocation, or outsourcing as alternative explanations. Moreover, domestic acquisitions do not generate comparable improvements. Our findings are consistent with foreign acquisitions improving workplace safety through the transfer of managerial and organisational practices, highlighting a benefit of multinational activity beyond conventional measures of firm performance. |
| Keywords: | multinationals, workplace safety, work accidents, organisational changes |
| JEL: | F23 F61 I10 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13071 |
| By: | Glenn Magerman; Alberto Palazzolo; Emmanuel Dhyne; Andras Borsos; Dmitry Kulikov; Andrea Linarello; Alari Paulus; Giacomo Romanini; Martín Saldias |
| Abstract: | How much a firm’s shocks move the aggregate, and how they propagate to other firms, both depend on its position in the network of firm-to-firm trade. As firm-level networks are available for few economies, quantitative work typically relies on firm size and/or input–output tables as proxies. Using administrative VAT records and tax filings, we build harmonized production networks for five European economies (Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, and Portugal) and measure firms’ positions directly. Five facts stand out. First, firm size and centrality summarize a firm’s first-order aggregate impact, but not its vertical position along production chains, which is orthogonal to size and governs how shocks propagate across firms. Second, firm size is itself a function of the network: roughly half of within-industry size dispersion reflects the number of customers a firm has, rather than a primitive such as productivity. Third, granularity runs along several dimensions beyond firm size: network sales, transaction values, and the number of customers are heavy-tailed, spanning several orders of magnitude. Fourth, firm-to-firm networks differ structurally from IO tables: they are orders of magnitude sparser, “roundabout” production disappears, and input shares vary widely even within narrow sector pairs. These patterns are stable across all five economies and persist within narrowly defined industries, reflecting firm-level characteristics rather than sectoral composition or country-specific factors. Finally, these distinctions are economically relevant: firm-level responses to monetary policy vary systematically with vertical position, and cross-country differences in where firms sit along production chains generate heterogeneous aggregate responses to a common shock. We provide these moments as calibration targets and as a guide to when sector-level structure is an adequate approximation and when firm-level detail is first-order. |
| JEL: | C81 D57 E52 L14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202611 |
| By: | Jacoby, Annette (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stips, Felix (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Since 2023, Germany has reformed its rules on skilled labour immigration through the Skilled Labour Immigration Act 2.0, which was phased in over several stages. Around eighteen months after these reforms were completed, current findings from the IAB Job Vacancy Survey show that the vast majority of German establishments do not recruit workers from outside the EU. The picture varies considerably, though: larger establishments and those facing skilled labour shortages are notably more likely to recruit from third countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Drittstaatsangehörige ; Fachkräftebedarf ; Einwanderung ; Personalrekrutierung ; Sprachbarriere |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202619 |
| By: | Markus Knell (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division) |
| Abstract: | How do rental markets shape inflation? In many countries, new leases follow the market, while ongoing rents rise only with inflation. Longterm tenants therefore pay less than newcomers – a “tenure discount.” This paper builds a simple model of this two-tier system and tests it with Austrian data (2005–2024). It shows how contract length and indexation rules make rent inflation persistent and how they drive inflation in both the short and long run. |
| Keywords: | rental market, tenure discounts, inflation, indexation, rent control |
| JEL: | E31 R31 R38 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:282 |
| By: | Strecke, Linus; Krieger, Bastian; Hottenrott, Hanna |
| Abstract: | Unternehmen in Deutschland stehen unter erheblichem Anpassungsdruck. Demografischer Wandel, Fachkräfteengpässe, Digitalisierung, gestiegene Kosten und ein intensiver Innovationswettbewerb erhöhen die Anforderungen an betriebliche Organisationsformen. Innovationen in der Arbeitsorganisation können dabei ein wichtiges Instrument sein, um diesen Herausforderungen zu begegnen. Sie fördern die Integration unterschiedlicher Beschäftigungsgruppen, verbessern die Nutzung vorhandener Potentiale und können zugleich zur wirtschaftlichen Leistungsfähigkeit von Unternehmen beitragen. Eine Analyse auf Basis des Mannheimer Innovationspanels zeigt, dass solche Maßnahmen in der Unternehmenspraxis bereits relevant sind, aber noch nicht flächendeckend umgesetzt werden. Besonders bedeutsam scheint ihre erstmalige Einführung, die mit positiven Effekten auf den Umsatz und die Anzahl der Beschäftigten einhergeht. Die Befunde legen nahe, Innovationen in der Arbeitsorganisation neben ihrer sozialen Bedeutung auch als wirtschafts und innovationspolitisch relevantes Instrument zu verstehen, insbesondere für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:344120 |
| By: | Forsberg, Erika (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Nybom, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | How does worker-firm sorting contribute to intergenerational persistence? Firm pay premia account for 36% of the intergenerational earnings elasticity in Sweden, rising to 50% with dynamic returns to firm-specific experience. Large pay gaps already open atlabor market entry, as children from privileged backgrounds find more favorable entry points; they then climb the firm pay ladder faster, switching firms more often and gaining more per switch. Skill sorting explains this widening but not the initial gaps, consistent with networks and employer learning. Privileged children’s firms are also more desirable overall, a gap that keeps widening after pay gaps stabilize. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility; firm pay; worker sorting |
| JEL: | D31 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_021 |
| By: | Cristina Borra; Pilar Cuevas-Ruiz; Almudena Sevilla |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term e!ects of maternal general education on infant health, leveraging a nationwide secondary school reform in Spain that expanded academic instruction without increasing years of schooling. Using newly digitized enrollment data linked to administrative birth records, we find that the reform significantly reduced very preterm birth and overall prematurity, with gains concentrated at the lower tail of the gestational age distribution. Mechanism evidence from high-quality adult survey data is consistent with reform-induced improvements in women’s information-processing skills, reductions in risky prenatal behaviors, higher labor force participation, and more e!ective family planning. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-10 |
| By: | Chiaiese, Dario (University of Siena, Department of Economics); Missiaia, Anna (Unit for Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sandgren, Fredrik (Uppsala University, Department of Economic History) |
| Abstract: | This paper reconstructs the occupational structure of 1720 Swedish pseudo-parishes between 1749 and 1855 using the data contained in Tabellverket, a unique collection of population and occupational records covering the country from the mid-eighteenth to the mid-nineteenth century. The original Tabellverket records are characterized by an unsystematic coverage in time and space and across occupational categories, changes in parish and pastorate boundaries, and missing observations that have so far inhibited its use at the parish level. We develop a procedure for transforming these records into a balanced panel data. The resulting dataset provides for the first time parish-level estimates of employment for 11 categories for the entire period 1749-1855 and 43 more detailed categories for the period 1805-1855 for both genders for 27 benchmarks, establishing a new empirical basis for studying long-run structural change in pre-industrial Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Occupational; structure; ·; Sweden; ·; Economic; history; ·; Historical; demography; ·; Parish-level; data |
| JEL: | C81 J21 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0043 |
| By: | Olivier Charlot; Franck Malherbet; Eloise Menestrier (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Depuis les années 1980, de nombreux pays européens ont favorisé le recours aux contrats temporaires afin d’accroître la flexibilité du marché du travail tout en préservant la protection associée aux contrats permanents. Cette stratégie a contribué à l’émergence d’un marché du travail dual, caractérisé par la coexistence d’emplois stables et d’emplois plus précaires. Cet article propose une synthèse de la littérature consacrée aux conséquences des contrats à durée déterminée (CDD) du point de vue des travailleurs. Après avoir documenté l’importance des contrats courts dans plusieurs pays européens et leur évolution récente en France, nous présentons les caractéristiques des salariés les plus exposés à ces formes d’emploi. Nous examinons les trajectoires professionnelles associées aux contrats temporaires, avec une attention particulière portée aux phénomènes de tremplin ou d’impasse, ainsi qu’aux réembauches répétées chez un même employeur. Ensuite, nous analysons les conséquences des contrats courts sur les salaires, les carrières, l’accès au crédit, au logement, la santé et le bienêtre. La littérature met en évidence une forte hétérogénéité des effets : si les contrats temporaires peuvent faciliter l’accès à l’emploi pour certains travailleurs, ils sont également susceptibles d’alimenter des trajectoires durablement instables pour d’autres catégories de salariés. Cette hétérogénéité se retrouve également dans l’analyse des réformes, qui met en évidence des effets plus marqués pour les jeunes et les moins qualifiés. |
| Keywords: | contrats à durée déterminée, contrats courts, trajectoires professionnelles, précarité, dualisme du marché du travail |
| JEL: | J41 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-17 |
| By: | Perona, Mathieu |
| Abstract: | Si l’appréciation des Français quand aux grandes dimensions de leur bien-être individuel reste stable (satisfaction dans la vie, sens de ce qu’on fait, bonheur), la vague de septembre 2026 est marquée par la montée des inquiétudes et des fragilités. Le prix des carburants tend les budgets des ménages, mais c’est surtout l’avenir qui paraît sombre. Les perceptions de l’avenir individuel et de la prochaine génération enregistrent une forte baisse, dans la foulée des vagues de chaleur et sur un fond de rentrée tendue sur les sujets de finances publiques. Malgré la pause estivale, la satisfaction quant à son travail reste déprimée par rapport aux niveaux d’avant 2025, attestant d’une fragilisation durable. |
| Keywords: | France, Conjoncture, Bien-être |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2618 |