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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium); KonstantÄ«ns Beņkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Lietuvos Bankas); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal; Católica Lisbon); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Mantas Dirma (Lietuvos Bankas); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Lietuvos Bankas); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); ArtÅ«rs JÄ nis Å…ikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez-Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); KÄ rlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission; household borrowing; credit registers; interest rate pass-through; cross-country heterogeneity |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2026/1 |
| By: | Trine Schack; Jordy Meekes; César Barreto; Stéphane Carcillo; Jonas Fluchtmann; Alexander Hijzen; Benjamin Lochner; Matthew Nibloe; Rune Vejlin |
| Abstract: | We study the incidence, sources, and dynamics of low-wage employment using harmonised linked employer-employee administrative data from Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. We define low-wage employment relative to the country-specific median hourly wage and examine how worker characteristics, firm-specific wage premia, wage progression, and labour market institutions shape outcomes at different parts of the lower wage distribution. Three main findings emerge. First, worker characteristics account for most of the wage gap facing low-wage workers, though firm-specific wage premia matter too, especially at the very bottom, where they are around half as large as the worker component. These firm premia reflect both sorting across industries and pay differences across firms within industries. Second, low-wage employment is at least partly transitory, as workers at the bottom see faster subsequent wage growth and change firms more often. Third, minimum wages and marginal effective tax rates show limited systematic association with wage growth or job-to-job mobility, though higher minimum wages are linked to a smaller share of workers below 70% of the median. These patterns are broadly similar across countries and point to the joint importance of worker skills and access to higher-paying firms for improving low-wage workers' prospects. |
| Keywords: | low-wage employment, cross-country, matched employer-employee data, wage premia, taxes |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J38 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26237 |
| By: | Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | Value-added tax (VAT) systems in EU Member States deviate substantially from a uniform-rate benchmark through reduced rates and exemptions, typically motivated by distributional concerns. This paper provides microsimulation evidence on the fiscal and distributional effects of the full set of VAT expenditures, including both reduced rates and the non-actionable exemption gap covering healthcare, education and financial services mandated by the EU VAT Directive, in five major EU economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland) under the 2024 policy baseline. Using EUROMOD and its Indirect Tax Tool with EU-SILC 2022 microdata matched with EU-HBS 2015 expenditure data, and following a compensating variation welfare approach, we simulate a universal standard-rate VAT counterfactual and find that abolishing all VAT expenditures would reduce post-consumption-tax disposable income by 9-21% for bottom-decile households versus 3-5% for the top decile, with Italy and Spain displaying the most regressive reform-cost profiles. The difference in welfare loss between the bottom and top income deciles ranges from -6.3 percentage points in Poland to -16.3 percentage points in Italy. While VAT expenditures offer meaningful purchasing-power protection to lower-income households in proportional terms, this protection is poorly targeted in absolute terms because richer households capture a larger share of the implicit subsidy in absolute cash terms, and could be replicated more efficiently through targeted income transfers. We discuss implications for revenue-neutral VAT reform and the efficiency-equity trade-off in EU indirect taxation. |
| Keywords: | value-added tax, VAT expenditures, reduced rates, exemptions, income inequality, microsimulation, EUROMOD, indirect taxation, European Union |
| JEL: | H23 H25 D31 C15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1828 |
| By: | Ágnes Szabó-Morvai (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; University of Debrecen); Anna Adamecz (Social Research Institute, University College London; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Flavia Cavallini (Department of Economic Research, Bank of Italy); Jessica Nisén (INVEST Research Flagship Centre, University of Turku); Jitka Slabá (Department of Demography and Geodemography, Charles University); Csaba G. Tóth (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Sofia Trommlerová (Institute of Public Policy, Comenius University Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | This article provides descriptive evidence on induced abortions over the past 25 years in Eastern, Northern, Western, and Southern Europe, combining publicly available abortion data with restricted-access administrative datasets. We document diverse abortion-related institutional environments across European regions, the evolution of the total abortion rate, and differences by age, parity, and education. We find a decreasing trend with strong convergence across European countries, regardless of institutional settings and social norms. The largest declines occurred in Eastern Europe, while rates changed comparatively little elsewhere. The declines were the steepest among women with at least one child. Abortion rates were consistently the highest among women with primary education and lowest among those with tertiary education. However, the long period of convergence appears to have come to an end recently: since 2021, abortion rates have risen substantially in several Northern, Western, and Southern European countries, while continuing to decline in Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Abortion rate, Abortion ratio, Abortion trends, Abortion heterogeneity |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2614 |
| By: | Can Verberi |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the receipt and amount of non-pension public social benefits are associated with two complementary household-level inequality outcomes: GAPIIpre, a Gini-admissible personal inequality index (GAPII) calculated from equivalized household income excluding the measured benefits, and GAPIIpost, the corresponding index calculated from equivalized total household income including them. The analysis uses Luxembourg Income Study microdata for Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, employing country-specific OLS and quantile regressions to estimate the relationships of interest. At the conditional mean, both social-support measures are negatively associated with GAPIIpre and GAPIIpost in seven countries, whereas Sweden displays positive associations. The quantile estimates reveal substantial differences between the pre- and post-support outcomes. Denmark and France exhibit comparatively stable negative patterns, while Germany, Greece, Spain, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the United States show changes in sign, significance, or distributional coverage after social benefits are included in household income. The findings demonstrate that benefit receipt is associated both with households’ initial inequality positions and with their observed positions after support. The results support cross-country and distributional heterogeneity but do not establish a simple welfare-regime ordering. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:929 |
| By: | Andrea Weber; David Card; Wolfgang Dauth; Wolfgang Frimmel; Julia Schmieder; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | How big are the gains to international migration, and how do they vary across migrants? We use linked administrative data for Austria and Germany, focusing on migrants who were steadily employed 2-4 years before moving and their former co-workers as a comparison group in a difference-in-differences design. Combining origin- and destination-country data for five years after migration allows us to assess gains for both migrants who remain abroad and those who return. Austrian migrants to Germany experience an immediate and persistent increase of around 13% in daily wages relative to their matched co-workers, while German migrants to Austria gain about 4%. The higher returns for Austrians are mainly driven by higher average wages in Germany rather than differential selection. Consistent with a dynamic learning model, returns are largest for migrants who remain in the destination, smaller for those returning after 1-4 years, and zero for those returning within a year. To interpret these findings, we conduct a parallel analysis of domestic migrants moving to a larger city (Vienna or one of Germany's five largest cities). These "big-city" movers experience wage gains of about 5% in Austria and 10% in Germany. |
| Keywords: | international migration, domestic migration, returns to migration, co-worker design |
| JEL: | J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26250 |
| By: | Kanabar, Ricky; Nivalainen, Satu |
| Abstract: | We examine how changes to Extended Unemployment Benefit, an early retirement pathway for long-term unemployed workers in Finland affects labour market outcomes, using three reforms for identification. In 2003, minimum eligibility age was raised from 57 to 59, in 2010 to age 60 and in 2014 to age 61. We show that among individuals previously employed in the private sector the 2003 reform had the largest effect: cumulative employment by age 63 increased by 10 months, unemployment declined correspondingly, and earnings increased by €39, 700 (in 2024 prices). While the 2014 reform increased cumulative employment by 3.2 months and earnings by €14, 500, we find only limited evidence that the 2010 reform increased employment and earnings. Among individuals previously employed in the public sector, only the 2003 reform had an effect, increasing employment by 2.7 months but having no impact on earnings. We show that the composition of the long-term unemployed changed over time: whilst most remained low-educated former manual workers, later cohorts included larger shares of tertiary-educated former professionals. Moreover, we find earlier reforms affected a broad group of unemployed individuals, whereas later reforms disproportionately affected highly educated professional employees. Our findings highlight the need to pay particular attention to heterogeneity in response behaviour when assessing reforms to early retirement pathways and to consider their cohort-specific distributional consequences. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2026-05 |
| By: | Anabela Santos; Andrea Conte |
| Abstract: | Using a newly compiled dataset at NUTS2 level, this working paper provides a mid-term analysis ofthe territorial and sectoral distribution of the two main EU R&I funding instruments, HorizonEurope and Cohesion Policy, over the first five years of implementation of the 2021-2027programming period. The two instruments follow distinct but complementary logics: excellencebasedand territorial convergence, respectively. The findings show substantial territorial differencesin the importance of EU R&I funding. In many Central, Eastern and Southern European regions, the combined contribution of Cohesion Policy and Horizon Europe exceeds 20% of total R&Dexpenditure, making EU funding a major source of R&D financing, particularly in less developedand innovative regions. Horizon Europe is highly concentrated among innovation-leading regions, while less innovative regions rely more on R&I Cohesion Policy funding. The sectoral analysis showsthat Horizon Europe is predominantly oriented towards the higher education sector, whereasCohesion Policy has a stronger contribution to the business sector, which becomes relatively moreimportant as regional innovation performance declines. The differentiated territorial and sectoralroles of Horizon Europe and Cohesion Policy observed in previous programming periods tend topersist during the first five years of the current EU funding architecture, highlighting the importanceof maintaining their complementary roles while strengthening links between competitive and placebasedR&I support. |
| Keywords: | R&I funding; Horizon Europe; Cohesion Policy; EU regions |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/414367 |
| By: | Głodek Paweł; Dadas Grzegorz; Compano Ramon (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report proposes a consistent and robust methodology for identifying and comparing university spin-offs across European countries. The conceptual framework relies on observable ownership links, notably equity-based, between universities and spin-offs. The methodology was tested in Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia, countries with diverse legal and organisational contexts. The methodology has proven to compare university spin-off across the European Union irrespective of the national laws for academia to spin-off their ventures. A comparison the three case studies reveal that the number of spinoffs created is lower than expected with regard to the country’s R&D capacity and scientific output, manifesting a considerable untaped potential for innovative startups in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147605 |
| By: | Sebastian Y. D. Ernst; Andreas I. Mueller; Johannes Spinnewijn; Joost Bollens |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the use of algorithmic risk profiling to direct job search support toward individuals most at risk of long-term unemployment. Using three regression discontinuity designs and rich administrative data from the Flemish Public Employment Service (VDAB) in Belgium, we address two key dimensions: whom and when to target. First, job search counseling raises employment on average, but treatment effects decline sharply with predicted risk. This reveals a fundamental trade-off between targeting those most at risk and those most responsive to intervention. Second, we find no evidence that treatment effects depreciate at the individual level, but strong dynamic selection: as spells lengthen, surviving job seekers have both higher baseline risk and lower treatment responsiveness, with opposing implications for the returns to treatment. We develop and calibrate a conceptual framework for optimal targeting that highlights the key role of the ratio of predicted treatment effects to predicted job-finding probabilities. Targeting rules combining both objects substantially outperform the status quo, yielding welfare gains nearly three times as large as those from random assignment, while targeting on risk scores alone performs worse than random assignment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, targeting, treatment effect heterogeneity, regression discontinuity, public employment services, machine learning |
| JEL: | J64 J65 H43 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26245 |
| By: | Petra Sauer; Rosa Mulè |
| Abstract: | The expansion of women’s education and employment has transformed labor markets across advanced democracies. Yet comparatively little is known about how educational wage inequality among women has evolved across countries and over time. This article examines wage gaps between college- and non-college-educated women in the United States, Germany, and Sweden between 1991 and 2020. We propose a framework of women’s inequality regimes that captures the interplay between labor market and family policies in shaping women’s economic opportunities and constraints. Drawing on data from the Luxembourg Income Study and using unconditional quantile regression, we analyze both the magnitude of educational wage inequality and the extent to which it is driven by women at the top or bottom of the wage distribution. We find that educational wage inequality is largest in the United States and smallest in Sweden, while Germany occupies an intermediate position but exhibits the most pronounced increase over time. This increase is driven by both rising wages among highly educated women at the top of the wage distribution and the growing concentration of low-educated women at the bottom. Our findings indicate that the institutions facilitating women’s labor market integration also shape women’s inequality regimes, with important implications for social stratification and household inequality. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:926 |
| By: | Guillaume Chapelle; Alain Trannoy (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Using French cadastral and transaction data, we study the effects of a VAT cut from 20% to 5.5% on new residential construction in and around about 600 deprived neighborhoods. The reduced rate raised the housing stock by 2% in floorspace terms, equivalent to roughly two years of residential investment over a decade, and generated a gain in total surplus of about €13.6 billion. We estimate the price elasticity of floor-space demand at −0.24, with a 60% pass-through to buyers; landowners and developers each capture roughly half of the remainder. We also confirm that housing supply in France is price-inelastic (elasticity of 0.35). |
| Keywords: | VAT, Housing, price-elasticities |
| JEL: | H22 R31 D61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-11 |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto |
| Abstract: | We estimate the health and wellbeing effects of subsidized access to long-term care (LTC). Our analysis exploits the staggered implementation of Spain’s 2007 System of Autonomy and Care for Dependent People (SAAD), which expanded publicly funded and universal LTC subsidies and supports, as well as its subsequent reform. Using two decades worth of administrative and survey data and leveraging exogenous regional and individual-level variation in program exposure, we find that access to SAAD benefits reduces the care receiver’s depressive symptoms by about 1 percentage point, increases its survival probability by 2.6–3 percentage points, and raises its life satisfaction by 0.24–0.50 scale points. Cost-effectiveness estimates indicate that the implied cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained lies below commonly accepted efficiency thresholds for public health spending in Europe. These findings document sizeable health returns and efficiency gains from publicly subsidized LTC provision. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-30 |
| By: | Kowalik, Zuzanna (Institute for Structural Research (IBS), University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Pompei, Fabrizio (Università degli Studi di Perugia); Stichnoth, Holger (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)); Szymczak, Wojciech (Uppsala University); Thil, Laurène (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | We study platform workers' preferences for social protection — in the form of sick pay and paid annual leave — distinguishing between workers who entered platform work out of economic necessity (the "pushed") and those attracted by its flexibility and advantages (the "pulled"). Using a discrete-choice experiment administered to nearly 800 taxi, delivery, and cleaning platform workers in Germany, Italy, and Poland, we find an average willingness to pay at 3.7% of earnings for sick pay coverage and 4.6% for paid annual leave. Preferences, however, differ sharply by motivation: pushed workers are willing to forgo on average 5.3% of earnings for sick pay, and 5.6% for paid annual leave, while pulled workers' valuations are substantially lower (3.1% and 4.2%, respectively). This difference is most pronounced among workers without access to these benefits, suggesting that the absence of protections is particularly consequential for those who entered platform work under greater economic constraint. The findings indicate that the welfare impact of extending social protections to platform workers — as proposed by the EU Platform Work Directive — might depend on the share of necessity-driven workers in the platform workforce. |
| Keywords: | platform work, willingness to pay, discrete choice experiment, social protection, job quality |
| JEL: | J32 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18967 |
| By: | Bedük, Selçuk (University of Oxford); Benassi, Enrico (University of Oxford); Lersch, Philipp M. (German Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Homeownership is declining among younger generations across Europe. A common assumption is that this decline has been increasingly stratified by parental homeownership, due to rising house prices and the growing importance of parental financial support. We show that this assumption does not hold for the average European (and for most countries). Using data from EU-SILC 2011 and 2019 covering 24 European countries, we examine trends in relative and absolute mobility of homeownership for birth cohorts 1951 to 1984. On average, relative mobility remained largely stable across cohorts, while absolute mobility increased. The apparent stability of relative mobility masks a deeper structural cohort shift: downward mobility increased from 14 per cent to 38 per cent, while upward mobility declined from 23 per cent to 8 per cent between cohorts born in the early 1950s and early 1980s. Therefore, homeownership has declined significantly for both children of homeowners and renters. We also compare absolute and relative mobility trends across countries and show that they often diverge for two reasons. First, a mechanical effect of the origin distribution: in countries with widespread parental homeownership, relative mobility largely reflects changes in upward mobility. Second, the source of mobility: using two novel counterfactual simulations, we show that observed absolute mobility changes mainly stem from structural shifts in homeownership chances, rather than strengthening parent-child associations. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s8azp_v1 |
| By: | Pineda-Hernandez, Kevin (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter)); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels); Volral, Mélanie (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)) |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms’ profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants’ wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | rent sharing, natives, first- and second-generation immigrants, matched employer-employee data, wage decompositions, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18981 |
| By: | Heta Pöyliö |
| Abstract: | Social protection systems are considered the cornerstones of the welfare state, originally built to address inequalities, alleviate poverty, and mitigate social risks. Many European social protection systems have evolved into complex, multi-tiered 'puzzles' as they expand coverage to address new life-course risks. This has created systems in which navigating is a skill and access is unequal. This paper uses a recipiency-based approach to analyse the level of benefit complexity of European social protection systems, 'the puzzle', by counting how many different types of social cash benefits households receive in one year. A higher number reflects greater complexity of the income protection system. Using microdata from the Luxembourg Income Study across 25 European countries for the years 2000-2023, the results show that households, particularly families, can receive up to 15 different benefits as part of their annual income, although there is significant variation across countries and households. Benefit complexity has increased in some countries, whereas it has been relatively stable in others. The increase in benefit complexity is associated with higher access to benefits in Southern Europe across all household types, whereas in the Nordic countries, the rise in single-parent benefit complexity aligns with growing single-parent poverty rates. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:922 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Ana Fernandes; Nurlan Lalayev; Doris Weichselbaumer |
| Abstract: | We study gender differences in employers' responses to commuting distance using data from a large-scale correspondence test in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. A 10 km increase in driving distance reduces women's probability of receiving an interview invitation by 1.8 percentage points, around 9 percent of the mean female invitation rate, while commuting distance has no corresponding effect for men. The gender difference is statistically significant and robust to alternative distance measures and thresholds, firms' rural or urban location, and local labor-market tightness. The female distance penalty does not vary detectably with applicants' reported marital status or the presence of children, providing no support for screening based on these observed indicators of household responsibilities. |
| Keywords: | Gender Discrimination, Commuting, Labor Market, Field Experiment, Germany, Switzerland, Austria |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J61 J71 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26246 |
| By: | Korneliusz Pylak (Lublin University of Technology, Lublin, Poland); Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamics of regional innovation activity in Europe from 2000 to 2020 using patent applications. Standard convergence measures indicate that regional disparities are narrowing, with initially lagging regions catching up to the leading ones. Our analysis reveals two persistent ‘clubs’: the ‘lagging’ and the ‘advanced’ regions. Although these groups are becoming increasingly similar, the differences between them remain largely unchanged. Despite two decades of growth, the disparity between the two clubs still accounts for a great deal of the total variation in regional patenting. These patterns suggest a convergence illusion that is overlooked in the current scholarly debate. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation, convergence, convergence clubs, European regions |
| JEL: | O31 R11 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-011 |
| By: | Antoine B. Levy; Mathilde Muñoz |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether and how distressed regions can recover from industrial decline. We exploit differences in access to an increasingly thriving Luxembourg labor market for neighboring residents of the French “Rust Belt.” We document a three-phase expansion of treated local labor markets, driven by an initial workplace substitution of incumbent residents towards cross-border job opportunities, a medium-term rise in local labor force utilization, and a long-run sustained increase in population via net domestic in-migration. A broader process of local revitalization follows, with higher incomes, reduced reliance on transfers, and resilience to social dislocation, although it is partially offset by rising housing costs and unequal congestion. This leads to a net decrease in far-right and anti- EU vote shares, muting the rise of populism visible elsewhere in former industrial regions of France. Our findings suggest that former industrial regions are not inherently rigid nor doomed to fall to anti-globalization backlash, but can and do adjust – given sufficiently large-scale reversals in local labor demand. |
| JEL: | F15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35814 |
| By: | Lotte Swank (University of Groningen); Otto Swank (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Joes de Natris (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) |
| Abstract: | In multi-party parliamentary democracies, governments emerge from post-election bargaining. We study coalition formation in Dutch municipalities. Bargaining models and a norm that "the largest party should govern" predict that party rank affects coalition formation. Using regression discontinuity designs, we find no causal effect of party rank on coalition inclusion. Instead, governments follow a broad-coalition logic: when two parties jointly win a narrow majority, they nevertheless include a third party in 95\% of cases. Parties that participate in coalitions excluding a relatively large party are less likely to enter the next coalition, consistent with dynamic penalties for violating a broad-coalition norm. |
| Keywords: | Coalition formation, Bargaining models, Regression Discontinuity Design, Democratic norms |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260076 |
| By: | Hoos, Max (Department of Environmental Social Sciences, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology); Truffer, Bernhard (Department of Environmental Social Sciences, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology); Hoekman, Jarno (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Arguing against techno-determinism remains one of the cornerstones of innovation studies. Scholars have relentlessly shown how social conditions and strategic choices determine the pace and direction of technological development, supporting the idea that innovation can be steered towards societal goals such as economic competitiveness, employment or sustainability. Most scholarly attention, however, focused on the processes that generate new varieties of products and technologies, while the selection environment determining their direction is left largely unspecified. In this paper, we draw on insights from economic sociology to propose a conceptual framework for unpacking key structures and mechanisms of the selection environment through which societal values act upon technology development during periods of normative contestation. Central to our approach is the concept of valuation devices, understood as the organizational forms and material infrastructures embedded in institutional arrangements through which values are attributed to technologies and products. Beyond identifying these devices as strategic vehicles for actors to steer technology development, we show how they conjointly constitute a valuation ecosystem that shapes the directionality of a field. This framework is applied to the European food packaging sector, where proliferating health and environmental concerns have spurred a range of technological trajectories characterised by diverging strategies and goals. We retrace how actors advance distinct valuation devices to address evolving concerns about food packaging, and how the emerging valuation ecosystem shapes directionality by structuring corridors of legitimate innovation pathways. The paper concludes that deeper conceptual engagement with the selection environment opens promising new research perspectives for innovation studies. |
| Keywords: | Directionality; Valuation; Selection environment; Innovation pathways |
| JEL: | L50 L65 O31 O33 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_011 |
| By: | Pavese, Caterina (Università di Bologna); ter Meulen, Simon (University of Munich, ifo Institute); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich (LMU)) |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children, schools, integration, educational attainment, contraceptives |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18979 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Carlos Sanz |
| Abstract: | How socially distinct are competing political parties' candidate pools? Since names encode cultural milieu, lineage, linguistic origin, and ancestry that standard socioeconomic variables miss, we measure social sorting across parties with names, predicting affiliation out of sample within municipality-years. Across more than 2.5 million local-election candidates, names pick the right-wing candidate in a random within-municipality pair 55.8\% of the time in Spain and 56.5\% in France. Given names alone do most of the work: around 55.0%. Under a stylized model of intergenerational transmission of political orientation, this translates to an implied gap of about 25 p.p. in parental naming propensities. The signal is stable in Spain but doubles in France by 2026. Within ideological families, names separate parties as sharply as across the right--left divide, even more so in France. The Spanish cleavage is linguistic and growing. The French one runs through names of immigrant origin and is strongest in large cities. |
| JEL: | C53 D72 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35820 |
| By: | Katia Gallegos Torres; Andreas Steinmayr; Valentin Wett |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how local labor market tightness and welfare benefit levels at the time of receiving protection shape refugees' labor market integration and location choices. We exploit a sequence of reforms that generated quasi-random variation in benefit levels, together with variation in local labor market tightness across the districts and months in which refugees receive protection. We find that tighter local labor markets raise employment, while more generous benefits slightly reduce it. These employment effects persist for about 2.5 years, but both shocks have lasting impacts on internal migration. Moreover, the negative employment effect of benefits is larger in tighter labor markets. Neither shock affects the probability of emigrating from Austria. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant integration, refugees, welfare benefits, labor demand |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26232 |
| By: | Caterina Pavese; Simon ter Meulen; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children, schools, integration, educational attainment, contraceptives |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13023 |
| By: | Petter Lundborg; Adrian Nieto |
| Abstract: | We examine how early exposure to STEM professionals in the local neighborhood shapes children's long run educational and labor market outcomes. To identify causal effects, we use Swedish register data and several sources of variation in exposure to STEM qualified neighbors measured at the 100 by 100 meter grid. Exposure during compulsory education raises children's math performance, and evidence points to social ties as the main channel. It also increases the presence of boys and girls in science programs in high school and university, but mainly boys are more likely to complete a STEM bachelor degree. This gender gap persists into adulthood: STEM employment and earnings rise predominantly for boys. The results show that high skill professionals can serve as community based informal role models and that neighbors can shape long run educational and labor market trajectories. |
| Keywords: | STEM, Science, Neighbors, Role model, Human capital, Labor trajectory |
| JEL: | I2 J2 J3 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26231 |
| By: | Häggkvist, Martin (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | How much are employers willing to pay to sidestep employment protection? I study this in the context of seniority rules, aiming to shield tenured workers from job loss. Using detailed and unique Swedish layoff notification data matched with administrative registers, I identify the set of workers at risk of dismissal and construct counterfactual displacement lists based on the mandated layoff order. I find that workplaces with relatively more productive junior workers are significantly less likely to follow the seniority order. A one-standard-deviation increase in the relative productivity of recent hires reduces compliance by 7.7 percentage points. To circumvent the default order, employers provide higher severance pay and longer advance notice to senior workers, indicating that firms pay for the right to retain more productive workers. These results indicate that seniority rules impose efficiency costs on employers as employment protection is traded for financial compensation. |
| Keywords: | employment protection; seniority rules; productivity; severance pay |
| JEL: | J41 J52 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_020 |
| By: | Julia Bredtmann; Sebastian Otten; Timo Rammert |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of occupational deregulation on incumbent master craft workers' wages by exploiting a 2004 reform in the German crafts sector that removed the requirement to hold a master certificate for business entry in roughly half of all craft occupations. Using administrative, employee-level data and a triple-difference design, we find that the reform increased the wage premium of incumbent masters by 3% in deregulated relative to regulated occupations. The results are consistent with a scarcity mechanism whereby the decline in the inflow of newly certified masters increased the relative market value of incumbent masters. The wage premium increase is most pronounced in small firms and in East Germany, where pre-existing shortages of high-skilled labor amplified the scarcity effect. These findings suggest that deregulation may have unintended distributional consequences by reducing the private return to obtaining advanced occupational certification, thereby raising incumbent wage premia and widening skill-based wage gaps. |
| Keywords: | occupational licensing, deregulation, skill investment, skill scarcity, wage premium |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J48 L51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26257 |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term relationship between historical levels of self-employment and economic performance in different regions of Germany. A particular distinction is made between West Germany and the eastern part of the country, that came after WWII for forty years under socialist regime. Regional self-employment rates exhibit high correlation over time periods exceeding a century. In West Germany, high and increasing levels of self-employment are significantly associated with high current levels of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per population, despite several major historical shocks. That such a relationship cannot be found in East Germany could be a legacy of the socialist period where the government performed anti-entrepreneurial policies. We also find a positive relationship between historical self-employment and patenting in both parts of the country. This relationship is, however, somewhat weaker in East Germany, which experienced considerably more historical shocks than West Germany. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, self-employment, regional prosperity, patenting, long-term effects |
| JEL: | L26 R11 O52 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-010 |
| By: | Lenza, Michele; Marchini, Claudia |
| Abstract: | This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France. The implications of our results are that wage dynamics in France exhibit non-linearity, to a certain extent, and that the better ability of LLFs relative to RFs to fit smooth signals is a valuable feature, especially at times in which wage growth reaches unprecedented levels from an historical perspective. JEL Classification: C45, C55, E37, J30 |
| Keywords: | forecasting, local linear forest, negotiated wages |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263291 |
| By: | Kevin Pineda-Hernández (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter)); François Rycx (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter), UCLouvain (IRES), GLO and IZA@LISER); Mélanie Volral (UMONS (Soci&ter), ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)) |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms’ profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. It therefore appears that firms share their profits equally with their employees, regardless of their origin. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants’ wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Rent sharing, natives, first- and second-generation immigrants, matched employer-employee data, wage decompositions, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026015 |
| By: | Antoine Nebout (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Noémi Berlin (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Emmanuel Kemel (HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales); Emmanuel Paroissien (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationships between overall diet quality and attitudes toward risk and time using a general population survey. We combine a food frequency questionnaire and a choice-based preference module to elicit individual risk and time preferences. The online questionnaire was administered to a socioeconomic panel representative of the French population. We show that risk and time preferences are associated with individual heterogeneity in key aspects of diet quality, a result that holds across a wide range of robustness checks. Using a hierarchical Bayes framework, we jointly estimate individual risk aversion and impatience parameters and show that associations hold for both model-free and structural estimates of risk and time preferences. We further show that these associations account for a substantial share of the heterogeneity in dietary outcomes beyond sociodemographic controls. Risk and time preferences contribute to both the income–diet-quality and education–diet-quality gradients, but in opposite directions, resulting in a limited net contribution to explaining socioeconomic inequalities in diet quality. |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les relations entre la qualité globale de l'alimentation et les attitudes face au risque et au temps à partir d'une enquête menée auprès de la population générale. Nous combinons un questionnaire sur la fréquence alimentaire et un module de préférences basé sur les choix afin de déterminer les préférences individuelles en matière de risque et de temps. Le questionnaire en ligne a été administré à un panel socio-économique représentatif de la population française. Nous montrons que les préférences en matière de risque et de temps sont associées à l'hétérogénéité individuelle concernant des aspects clés de la qualité de l'alimentation, un résultat qui se confirme à travers un large éventail de tests de robustesse. À l'aide d'un cadre bayésien hiérarchique, nous estimons conjointement les paramètres individuels d'aversion au risque et d'impatience, et démontrons que ces associations se vérifient tant pour les estimations sans modèle que pour les estimations structurelles des préférences en matière de risque et de temps. |
| Keywords: | Nutritional inequality, Time preference |
| Date: | 2026–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05762319 |
| By: | Stefano Blando |
| Abstract: | Before a flood, governments decide where to invest in protection; after it, how much of the loss to compensate. The European Union informs the first decision with a composite index that ranks every subnational unit by vulnerability. This paper tests the ranking by comparing Italian provinces struck by the same flood between 2005 and 2024. The published index does not order provinces by the losses they suffer, with or without controls for hazard, exposure and income ($\rho$ between -0.06 and 0.09). The failure lies in what it weights. As published, the index mostly measures economic development, while losses follow water: they arrive in recurring groups of provinces that share a river basin, and more than half of the ranking error lies between those groups. In a pre-registered test that rebuilds it and eight rivals at every forecast origin from 2010 to 2020, the index comes last on both questions an allocator asks. On where damage will land, its top ten provinces capture 16 per cent of later damage, less than a random draw; Italy's public flood hazard map, blind to losses, captures 44. On who loses more from the same water, its rank correlation with later losses is 0.03; its own components, reweighted on past losses, reach 0.42. Neither repair needs new data. The misranked loss is paid locally. Of EUR 12.3 billion recorded over 2013-2022, 85 per cent was not covered by national transfers, and prevention funding, scored the same way, does no better than chance. Because correlated losses cluster within borders, national pools in Europe need 39 per cent more reserve than cross-border pools of the same size. The index fails the same way across 1, 142 European units, where the repairs are weaker. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.36349 |
| By: | König, Pascal; Leidorf-Tidå, B.J.A. |
| Abstract: | This article examines EU citizens’ support for EU policy to attain digital sovereignty regarding Artificial intelligence (AI). Promoting domestic industries in AI is crucially important for attaining AI sovereignty. Yet, AI sovereignty policy ultimately hinges on support by the European public, and protective policy intervening in the EU AI market may be felt directly – and negatively – by citizens. Using survey data from Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania, and Sweden, we examine how much citizens support AI sovereignty policy even if this comes with costs and study how political and AI attitudes are associated with this trade-off evaluation. The analysis shows that EU-centrism is positively associated with support for AI sovereignty policy whereas positive attitudes toward AI and higher trust in US and Chinese tech companies show negative associations. The results have important consequences for the EU’s possibilities to garner public support for an AI sovereignty policy agenda. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:263yj_v1 |
| By: | Edoardo Di Porto; Christian Dustmann; Chiara Giannetto; Lorenzo Incoronato |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how salary caps affect retention and selection of managerial talent in the public sector. We exploit a 2014 reform in Italy that capped top public-sector salaries. Managers affected were about 5 percentage points more likely to move to the private sector. Exit propensity was especially high among executives of state-owned companies, while managers in traditional public administration largely remained in public employment despite substantial pay cuts. Exiting managers were positively selected, reducing average managerial quality in state-owned companies by about 2 percent. The reform generated modest fiscal savings of around 0.1 percent of public-sector labor costs. |
| Keywords: | salary caps, public managers, public-private mobility, state-owned companies |
| JEL: | J45 M54 J31 M52 H83 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26235 |
| By: | Nilsson, Pia (Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki); Norbäck, Pehr-Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Persson, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Roedriguez del Valle, Adrian (Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki) |
| Abstract: | We examine how taxation of intergenerational transfers affects the allocation of productive assets within family firms. Using administrative registry data on family-farm successions in Sweden around the 2005 abolition of inheritance and gift taxes, we investigate how the successor’s share of land holdings in the parental and sibling generations responds to the removal of taxes. We use a quasi-experimental event-study design and find that the increase in the successor’s ownership share is about 10–11 percentage points larger among families with greater predetermined exposure to the pre-reform inheritance tax. Results also indicate that the reform led parents to transfer assets earlier and concentrate a larger share of productive assets in the successor through inter vivos gifts. Post-reform successions are associated with higher capital intensity, suggesting that inheritance and gift taxation extends beyond the direct tax burden, affecting property-right allocation and capital intensity in family-operated enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Inheritance taxation; Family firms; Ownership allocation; Capital intensity; Intergenerational transfers |
| JEL: | D13 D20 H20 |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1567 |
| By: | von Borries, Alvaro (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Hall, Ola (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and applies a multidimensional indicator of objective well-being grounded in the capabilities approach to analyze spatial and temporal patterns across Swedish municipalities from 2002 to 2020. Operationalizing well-being as a place-based capability environment across six dimensions – economic, health, education, safety, civic, and inclusion – the study moves beyond income-centered accounts of regional inequality and examines how different dimensions of well-being are jointly shaped by local institutional and socioeconomic contexts. The analysis reveals that well-being is persistently structured by municipality type and industrial composition, yet in ways that defy a simple urban advantage: large municipalities lead on economic and educational dimensions but score systematically lower on safety and inclusion, while rural and small municipalities display more balanced capability profiles. Over the study period, well-being improved broadly but unevenly, with rural and peripheral municipalities converging toward the national median while former industrial towns experienced broad-based capability decline across multiple dimensions. The geography of well-being has increasingly aligned with the geography of political discontent, with electoral support for the Sweden Democrats growing strongest in capability-disadvantaged municipalities. Together, these findings advance a spatially grounded, multidimensional understanding of territorial inequality and offer a framework for identifying where structural disadvantage and capability deprivation intersect most acutely. |
| Keywords: | local well-being; capabilities approach; regional opportunity structures; Sweden |
| JEL: | I31 O15 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_003 |
| By: | Crescioli, Tommaso; Van Overbeke, Toon |
| Abstract: | How does market power affect the political behavior of small business owners? As the growing market power of large multinational firms has fundamentally changed the opportunity structure for small businesses and their beneficiaries, we try to understand how those economic developments influence European democracies. We argue that growing market power lowers small business owners’ trust in key democratic institutions and the functioning of markets, driving them to reject incumbents and shift their support to radical right parties. We employ firm-level, individual-level, and regional-level data on fourteen European countries to test this argument. Our findings indicate that rising market power, measured by combining mergers and increases in market concentration, is associated with the declining economic performance of micro-firms. In turn, mergers and the declining economic share of these firms are robust predictors of anti-incumbent and increased radical right voting both at the individual and constituency levels. This article provides the first analysis of the effect of market concentration on rich democracies and, in doing so, offers a novel explanation for the surprising radical right support among small business owners in Europe. |
| Keywords: | market power;political economy;voting behavior;radical right;democratic institutions |
| JEL: | D72 D74 L12 |
| Date: | 2026–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141231 |
| By: | Silvia Iossa; Saverio Barabuffi |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether universities shape the regional innovation effects of public R&D expenditure and whether this role varies across regional development trajectories. We analyse a panel of 1166 EU NUTS 3 regions over the period 2007-2020, combining data on European public R&D funding, patenting performance, university presence and regional development traps. Toa ddress the endogeneity of public R&D expenditure, we employ a control function aproach. The results show that public r&D expendirue positively affects patenting performance in both university and non-university, but the difference between them is not statistically significant. University presence therefore does not sistematically amplify the returns to public R&D. However, its moderating role becomes more pronounced in regions exposed to development trap risk and in regions experiencing persistent stagnation, while evidence is weaker for trap intensity. These fundings suggest that universities act as contingent rather than unviersal catalyst of public R&D. Their contribution appears particularly relevant in vulnerable and persistently stagnant regional trajectories, but less able to offset sever structural constraints. The study contributes to debates on the geography of public R&D and regional development traps by showing that the effectiveness of research funding depends not only on institutional presence, bu also on the development rajectory in which that institutional capacity is embedded. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.08004 |
| By: | Pineda-Hernández, Kevin; Rycx, François; Volral, Mélanie |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms' profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. It therefore appears that firms share their profits equally with their employees, regardless of their origin. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants' wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Rent sharing, natives, first- and second-generation immigrants, matched employer-employee data, wage decompositions, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1830 |
| By: | Leidorf-Tidå, B.J.A.; König, Pascal |
| Abstract: | Trust in artificial intelligence (AI) applications is deemed crucial for uptake of the technology and the development of an AI market. In the present article, we argue that the institutional design of regulatory regimes matters for whether citizens trust AI systems. We study how trust in AI systems depends on who the responsible regulator is, the scope of the regulator’s scrutiny of AI systems, and the involvement of external stakeholders in regulatory oversight. Based on a conjoint design, we examine how respondents value these institutional design choices for the case of high-risk AI systems used in health care. Using samples from Lithuania, Romania, Sweden, and the Netherlands, with 4001 respondents overall, the pre-registered experiment shows that citizens have more trust in AI systems if vendors, civil society and especially independent researchers are involved in oversight, and if regulators actively scrutinize AI systems rather than relying solely on self-reporting. At least in two countries, citizens also seem to have more trust in AI systems if the sectoral health care regulator is the responsible regulator instead of a cross-sectoral regulator such as the national Data Protection Authority or a specific AI regulator. |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:by96n_v1 |
| By: | Dribe, Martin (Lund University); Stanfors, Maria (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Married men commonly earn more than unmarried. Explanations emphasize either productivity gains from marriage or positive selection into marriage. Using longitudinal data on men in Sweden 1947–2022, combining historical population records for a regional sample with full-count modern administrative registers, we analyze information on earnings and occupation for both men and their spouses. We estimate linear regression, two-way fixed-effects, event-study models, and residualized quantile regression to capture aspects of the marriage premium. We find a stable marriage premium over 70 years. While OLS estimates are substantially attenuated in fixed-effects models, indicating an important role for selection, a positive premium remains. There were large changes over time in the underlying mechanisms. Until the 1980s, the premium was highest for men with lower earnings, while this pattern reversed after 1990 when the premium was larger at higher earnings. Before 1970 there is some support for a causal marriage premium, while this changed in later periods, when there was strong earnings growth in the years leading up to marriage. The persisting marriage premium suggests that marriage is still crucial for men’ labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | marriage premium, register data, earnings, quantile regression, event study |
| JEL: | J12 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18973 |
| By: | Krieger, Bastian (ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung; TUM – Technische Universität München); Kroll, Henning (Fraunhofer ISI; Leibniz Universität Hannover); Schubert, Torben (Fraunhofer ISI; CIRCLE, Lund University); Strecke, Linus (ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung; TU Berlin); Garcia Chavez, Cecilia (Fraunhofer ISI; CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the local economic effects of niche university actors depend on regional context. Focusing on private university campuses in Germany, we exploit their staggered foundation between 1990 and 2020 and estimate their effects using a conditional staggered difference-in-differences design at the postal-code level. Campus foundations raise local economic activity, but only gradually, with effects becoming statistically significant after about ten years. The effects are strongest in rural and intermediate regions, while urban regions show no significant effects. This pattern supports our argument that niche universities have greater potential to become significant actors in institutionally thinner rural regions. |
| Keywords: | Regional growth; Private universities; Place-based leadership; Urban-rural |
| JEL: | O12 O18 O38 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_005 |
| By: | Pyddoke, Roger (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Swärdh, Jan-Erik (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the magnitudes of two hypothetical compensation schemes in 2030 if motor fuel prices increase successively to reduce CO2 emissions, with the goal of reaching Swedish policy goals for the transport sector by 2030. The two compensation schemes are examined in two price-increasing scenarios: the first, the ESR Scenario, is designed to fulfill the Swedish EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) commitments as of 2045; the second, the High Price Scenario, with larger price increases, is designed to reach the current Swedish national policy goal for the transport sector. These scenarios are compared with the Reference Scenario, in which the prices increase modestly, implying that the national policy goal is not reached for emissions from private cars, such that the government must instead purchase emission quotas to fulfill EU commitments. We estimate the effects on both fuel expenditure and welfare. Two levels of lump-sum transfers are made to vulnerable car owners in rural areas based on the mean fuel expenditure in each income octile. The results indicate that compensation can reduce average welfare losses from fuel price increases for rural car owners to a level similar to those of average car owners in large cities. Furthermore, the fiscal cost of these transfers is well below the public revenues from increased taxes, even when incorporating realistic administration costs. In the ESR Scenario, the low transfer amounts render it questionable whether compensation is justified. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; fuel tax; car ownership; fuel consumption; income distribution; spatial distribution; compensation |
| JEL: | D31 H23 Q52 R12 R48 |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2026_008 |
| By: | Bruce Bradbury; Markus Jäntti |
| Abstract: | We examine levels and changes across time in the children’s economicwell-being aswell as the drivers of their living standards, in rich countries. Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study Database (LIS), we focus on the worst-off fifth of children, measuring their economic well-being in the latest LIS data as well as over time by the equivalent disposable income of their households, in both relative and absolute terms. Much attention has in recent years has been directed to parental labour force participation – what economists call the extensive margin labour supply – and the role of taxes and transfer in driving that. We therefore examine the combined roles of labour markets and the public sector through net transfers. Our key policy variables are participation tax rates – the change in household disposable income for a given increase in labour earnings driven by benefit withdrawal and tax increase – and minimum income support in public transfers. Our results show substantial variation across countries in levels of child poverty and the extent to which that level stems from labour markets or public transfers. Our regression results suggest that neither participation tax rates nor levels of minimum income support appear to matter much for parental labour supply, as market incomes are little affected by either. For overall children’s living standards, i.e., their disposable income, levels of minimum income support do matter but participation tax rates do not appear to be important, with the effect of the former operating mainly through net transfers. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:927 |
| By: | Marcut Mirela (European Commission - JRC); Rodriguez Müller Paula (European Commission - JRC); Reimeris Ramojus (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Experimental governance helps administrations manage uncertainty and complexity by mobilising actors, experimenting in safe spaces, coordinating across boundaries, balancing competing interests, and institutionalising lessons learned. Strong governance and innovation performance are closely linked. Regions with higher quality of government attract more innovation funding and produce better outcomes, underscoring the role that public sector capacity plays in innovation ecosystems. Case studies show experimental governance in practice, revealing how different policy contexts shape which functions are prioritised and how they interact. Recommendations include developing tools to empower public administrations to engage in experimental governance: support for experimental clauses, developing sharing repositories, developing internal staff capacity to engage in innovation |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147951 |
| By: | Fil Kristensen, Iryna (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Pugh, Rhiannon (CIRCLE, Lund University); Krautscheid, Lena (CIRCLE, Lund University); Morgan, Kevin (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how power-knowledge relations shape the mobilization, recognition, and suppression of local knowledge in food system transformation. Drawing on Foucault's subjugated knowledges, we analyse how experiential, place-based expertise encounters institutional resistance within regional governance frameworks. Through case studies from Skåne and Värmland, Sweden, we identify forms of transformative local knowledge, strategies actors employ to sustain them, and mechanisms of their marginalization. Our findings reveal how governance routines, regulatory norms, and national policy agendas constrain transformative potential, while demonstrating how local actors' agency creates alternative pathways for systemic change. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability transitions; Local knowledge; Food systems transformation; Place-based governance |
| JEL: | O38 Q01 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_001 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Tavassoli, Sam (Deakin University); Obschonka, Martin (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Firms in peripheral and less knowledge endowed regions often struggle with innovation, as it is deeply rooted in and influenced by local characteristics. Although recent research highlights the significant, yet complex and hard-to-quantify role of local 'soft factors' such as culture and macro-psychology (e.g., local psychological openness) for firm innovation, we know relatively little about its specific role for firms located in the knowledge periphery. This study examines the hypothesis that favorable local soft factors, such as psychological openness, can compensate for unfavorable local hard factors for innovation of firms located in the knowledge periphery. Drawing upon Schmookler's scissor metaphor, we theoretically elaborate how local psychological openness impacts firm innovation by shaping both the demand and supply sides of the innovation process. In our arguments, we also incorporated the contingent impact of both regional (external) and firm (internal) factors on the relationship between local psychological openness and firm innovation. Our empirical investigation of a large and longitudinal sample of Swedish firms across 2004 to 2018 revealed a compensatory effect of local psychological openness for local 'structural knowledge gaps' in less endowed peripheral regions. Implications for research and policymaking addressing innovation in firms and regions are discussed. |
| Keywords: | firm innovation; local psychological openness; knowledge spillovers; peripheral regions |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_007 |
| By: | Francesca Pascale; Saverio Barabuffi; Giulio Ferrigno |
| Abstract: | The role of women on corporate boards and its impact on innovation remains heavily debated. While existing literature offers conflicting perspectives on whether female board representation spurs or hinders innovaiton, most research has focused exlusively on large firms. This studt adresses this gap by investigating the causal impact of women on boards on both "hard" (technological) and "soft" (non-technological) innovation within SMEs. Using a longitudinal dataset f 2762 Italian innovative SMEs from 2015 to 2024 and a 2SLS identification strategy, we find highly nuanced patterns. For hard innovation, the instrumented model reveals a robust positive causal impacr, reversing a negative baseline coefficient and exposing a severe negative selection bias. For soft innovation, a stable positive impact is confirmed. Our findings provide crucial causal evidence for SMEs' governance, while offering tailored insights for policymakers and practitioners to incentivize women' management roles in SMES. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.03250 |
| By: | Isabella Mantel; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demographic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the observed delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13022 |
| By: | Mantel, Isabella (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Riphahn, Regina (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demo-graphic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the ob-served delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18980 |
| By: | Csaba G. Tóth (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Emese Kovács (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is one of the most pressing demographic challenges, yet its main drivers remain contested. A key limitation of existing research is that the initial age structure is rarely treated as a separate driver, despite its influence on the pace and pattern of ageing. This study adapts a decomposition method based on the stationary population model to identify the separate contributions of fertility, mortality, net migration, and the initial age structure to changes in mean age. We apply this framework to Central and Eastern Europe, a region that has lost its earlier advantage of having a relatively young age structure compared with the rest of Europe. The results show that below-replacement fertility accounted for about half of the increase in mean age between 1990 and 2025. One of our main findings is that the contribution of the initial age structure exceeded the combined effect of mortality improvement and net migration. However, the latter showed substantial country-level variation. It also revealed the double burden of outmigration, as in countries affected by severe net outflows, it reduces population size while also accelerating ageing. The findings further indicate that the initial age structure was the main channel through which convergence in population ageing emerged in the region. Finally, cluster analysis identifies distinct groups of countries according to similarities in the demographic forces shaping their ageing processes. |
| Keywords: | population ageing; mean age; fertility; mortality; net migration; initial age structure; decomposition; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2613 |
| By: | Franziska Disslbacher; Salvatore Morelli; Matteo Targa |
| Abstract: | Using the novel GC Wealth Project Data Warehouse, this paper shows that wealth inequality has increased since the early 2000s in roughly 60% of the countries in our sample, although trends are not uniform across countries. While the largest gains in wealth shares accrue to the top 10%, relative losses are borne by the bottom 50% and the middle 40% alike. We reveal substantial variation of estimates across data sources and units of analysis, which complicates international comparison of wealth inequality. Yet, core trends at the country level are generally robust. Individual-based series generally report higher inequality than household-based ones. Regional patterns reveal sharp increases in inequality in Latin America, North America, India, and China, while Europe and Asia-Pacific exhibit more stable trends. Incorporating Forbes billionaire data extends coverage to low-income countries and Africa—where, notably, billionaire wealth relative to GDP has remained stable, marking a distinct exception to global patterns. |
| JEL: | D3 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:55 |
| By: | la Cour, Lisbeth (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Kruse-Becher, Sanne (Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University Stuttgart); Larsen, Birthe (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Jepsen Mejlgaard, Martin (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Wars generate economic costs beyond conflict zones through diaspora networks. We examine how war onset in immigrants’ countries of origin affects mental health in Denmark using nationwide administrative registers and a within-individual event-study design. Psychotropic medication use rises persistently following war onset, particularly among non-citizens, parents, and individuals with a same-origin spouse, but only when conflicts persist. Higher local co-ethnic concentration attenuates these effects. We further show that war onset increases publicly financed pharmaceutical expenditure, implying measurable fiscal costs for immigrant receiving countries. These findings reveal important cross-border welfare spillovers of armed conflict. |
| Keywords: | International migration; War; Mental health |
| JEL: | F22 F51 I10 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_012 |
| By: | Yajna Govind (Copenhagen Business School); Paolo Santini (Copenhagen Business School); Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We study racial inequality in 21st century France. Using parents’ nationality at birth, we overcome the lack of ethno-racial statistics stemming from the country’s “color-blind†approach. We document substantial earnings penalties for racial minorities along the income distribution. Penalties are larger at the median than the top and for Middle-Eastern and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan African origin (Black) individuals. We compare racial inequality in France vs. the U.S. by simulating where French minorities would fall in the U.S. distribution. Black and NonWhite individuals in France benefit from the country’s lower overall inequality, but experience comparable, occasionally larger, rank gaps. |
| Keywords: | France |
| JEL: | D31 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:349 |
| By: | Joan Calzada (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain); Néstor Duch-Brown (Joint Research Centre (JRC)); Xavier Fageda (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain); Nicandro Quirós (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Google’s Search Engine Results Page (SERP) redesign on web traffic to airline and flight comparison websites. Google implemented the redesign on March 6, 2024, in response to the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The reform removed the Google Flights module from the main results page and introduced two new sections — “Airline Options” and “Flight Sites”— aimed at reducing self-preferencing and increasing the visibility of third-party services. Using a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDiD) approach and domain-level data for four EU countries, with the United Kingdom and the United States as control markets, we estimate the causal effects of the redesign from November 2023 to December 2024. We find that the reform reallocated organic search traffic toward airline and comparison websites with smaller market shares. On desktop devices, organic traffic to low-cost and network airlines increased by 15 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, while no significant effects are detected on mobile. Traffic to flight comparison websites increased by 20 percent on desktop and 19 percent on mobile, with gains concentrated among smaller platforms. By contrast, we find no detectable effects for large incumbents such as Skyscanner, Booking.com, and Expedia. Overall, the redesign relaxed visibility constraints for smaller market participants, suggesting that digital market regulation can increase contestability at the margin without necessarily altering the position of large incumbents. |
| Keywords: | Digital Markets Act; Self-preferencing; Google, SERP; Air Travel Market |
| JEL: | D40 L41 L86 L93 K21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Batista E Silva Filipe (European Commission - JRC); Joossens Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); Barranco Ricardo; Curtale Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); Balouktsi Despoina (European Commission - JRC); Bellia Mario (European Commission - JRC); Vasicek Borek; Martins Vitor; Zeugner Stefan; Bazzani Elisa (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The Affordable Housing Act (AHA) is a key Commission initiative aiming to enable proportionate measures to address supply and demand mismatches in areas under housing stress. Within this framework, the AHA seeks to establish a common framework for flagging areas potentially under housing stress, clarify the conditions under which targeted and proportionate measures concerning the non-primary use of housing, including short-term rentals, may be justified, and encourage supply-side responses to increase the availability of affordable and social housing. After a thorough assessment of the availability and relevance of data and indicators, the JRC, in coordination with several Commission services, proposed a two-tier approach based on objective and publicly available data to assess areas under housing stress. The first tier combines data on price (Mapadomo) and income (Eurostat) to pre-screen overall housing stress conditions, and can be implemented in a straightforward and consistent manner by competent authorities across all EU Member States. The second tier relies on additional, auxiliary indicators linking to the root causes of the supply-demand mismatches at local level to justify and guide proportional policy development. This visual factsheet summarizes the overall approach, illustrating with recent data at the NUTS3-level how housing stress varies across the EU. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147616 |
| By: | Kriesch, Lukas (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen); Losacker, Sebastian (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen) |
| Abstract: | In the transition toward more sustainable energy use, heat pumps play a crucial role. However, large-scale installation of heat pumps has not yet occurred in many countries, often due to locked-in energy technologies and low levels of public acceptance. Given that the diffusion of heat pumps will strongly depend on end-user acceptance, it is important to understand how heat pump technologies are perceived by the public. In this paper, we study the sentiment of news articles about heat pumps to reveal changes in public attitudes toward these technologies over time. We develop a unique dataset encompassing more than 30, 000 German news articles about heat pumps, published between 2018 and 2023, building on CommonCrawl data. We identify news articles about heat pumps using a large language model, and then analyze the sentiment of each article using a pretrained sentiment analysis algorithm. This data is used to identify coherent topics within the corpus of heat pump-related articles, with some topics receiving very positive sentiment scores and others negative. From a longitudinal perspective, our findings reveal a sharp decrease in the mean sentiment of heat pump articles in early 2023, related to the debate about a new heating law during that time in Germany. Our results also show that the sentiment score gradually recovers from this shock. |
| Keywords: | Energy transition; Heat pumps; News data; Natural language processing |
| JEL: | O33 Q42 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_008 |
| By: | Gonzalez Vazquez Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); Mariscal De Gante Martin Alvaro (European Commission - JRC); Lobeto Martin Manuel |
| Abstract: | This report provides a workplace-level study of the 'twin transition' in the agriculture sector, through an in-depth case study of SAMA 2.0, a satellite-based precision-agriculture platform for rice production in the Guadalquivir marshes (Seville, Spain), developed through a collaboration between the University of Seville, a private technology provider and the Federación de Arroceros de Sevilla. Drawing on eight semi-structured interviews and contextualised with EU-wide worker-survey data, it depicts a sector where basic digital tools are now generalised but advanced, sector-specific technologies remain incipient. The clearest synergy runs from greening to digitalisation: producers' voluntary move to integrated production drove a cumulative digitisation of administrative work. The converse effect—precision farming reducing water, fertiliser and pesticide use—is promising but, given the tool's early adoption phase, remains to be demonstrated. A collaborative governance model linking researchers, producers and public funding emerges as the key enabling factor. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202610 |