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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | La réorientation post-bac est un phénomène d'ampleur conséquente en France : en 2022, un tiers des lycéens venant d'intégrer le supérieur ont formulé de nouveaux vœux dans Parcoursup. Ces changements de parcours sont pourtant parfois perçus comme des échecs individuels ou comme un gaspillage de ressources publiques. Qu'en est-il réellement ? Cette note propose la première évaluation causale à grande échelle des effets d'une réorientation post-bac sur les parcours d'études et l'obtention d'un diplôme du supérieur, en s'appuyant sur des données administratives exhaustives |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05543717 |
| By: | Nagui Bechichi (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Gustave Kenedi (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université) |
| Abstract: | Le passage du lycée à l'enseignement supérieur confronte les élèves à un choix décisif pour leur avenir : celui de leur orientation. Or ces choix demeurent socialement différenciés et leurs déterminants restent mal connus. Pour éclairer ce phénomène, cette note étudie une question encore peu explorée : dans quelle mesure les choix des lycéens sont-ils influencés par les trajectoires des anciens élèves de leur lycée ? En comparant les candidatures selon qu'un(e) ancien(ne) a été admis(e) ou refusé(e) de justesse dans une formation, on identifie l'effet causal de ces admissions sur les choix des générations suivantes. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05543678 |
| By: | Cécile Bonneau (Aalto University); Léa Dousset (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Bien que les femmes soient majoritaires dans l'enseignement supérieur en France, elles restent fortement sous-représentées dans les grandes écoles d'ingénieurs, notamment les plus sélectives. Ces écoles recrutent sur concours, censés garantir une sélection objective fondée sur les performances académiques. Leur préparation exige deux à trois années en classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles (CPGE), réputées pour leur intensité. La faible proportion de femmes admises dans les écoles les plus sélectives pourrait s'expliquer par deux types de facteurs : des écarts de performance (avant ou pendant la CPGE, ou au moment du concours), ou des différences de préférences quant aux concours présentés ou au choix d'affectation. Nos analyses permettent d'écarter à la fois le rôle des préférences et celui des performances avant l'entrée en CPGE comme causes principales, car ces facteurs jouent en réalité en faveur des femmes. Le coeur de l'explication réside dans une inversion progressive de l'écart de performance entre les femmes et les hommes au cours des années de classe préparatoire, notamment dans les filières les plus sélectives et compétitives, les classes « étoile ». Ce décrochage se double d'un léger désavantage des femmes le jour du concours, qui contribue également – bien que dans une moindre mesure – à leur sous-représentation dans les écoles d'ingénieurs les plus sélectives. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-05543606 |
| By: | Raffaela Giordano (Bank of Italy); Luigi Infante (Bank of Italy); Andrea Neri (Bank of Italy); Giada Andrea Prete (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of population ageing on household portfolio choices in Italy, France, Germany, and Spain, drawing on HFCS data for the period 2010–2020. The findings indicate that the propensity to hold risky assets follows an inverted U-shaped pattern over the life cycle and is comparatively lower in Italy; this difference cannot be attributed to demographic factors but rather reflects structural determinants. However, when business wealth is incorporated into the definition of risky assets, cross-country disparities are substantially reduced, suggesting that Italian households are not less exposed to risk per se, but instead hold it through alternative asset compositions. |
| Keywords: | household portfolio, life cycle, financial wealth, non-financial wealth, risky assets |
| JEL: | C25 D14 D15 D31 G51 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1036_26 |
| By: | Hossain, Mohammad Zariab (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evidence of behavioral spillovers in public employment services (PES). Using rich Swedish administrative data from 2004–2018 and a difference-in-differences design exploiting caseworker moves across local PES offices, I show that caseworker’s broader vacancy referral behavior—vacancy referrals outside a job seeker’s stated preferences—responds strongly to the local work-practice styles. I also examine how these practice-environment shocks of the movers (caseworkers) affect their job seekers. Taken together, the evidence suggests that local referral practices and the surrounding organizational environment play an important role in shaping caseworker behavior, with consequences for job seekers’ reemployment prospects. |
| Keywords: | occupational mismatch; caseworkers; peer effects; job search; public employment services; active labor market programs; difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 I38 J24 J24 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_018 |
| By: | Beata Osiewalska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)); Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam); Cracow University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of working from home (WFH) in shaping fertility across Austria, France, and Poland. While WFH can enhance flexibility and facilitate work–family reconciliation, it may also blur boundaries and intensify work demands, with ambiguous implications for childbearing. Using longitudinal Labour Force Survey (2006–2023), we estimate hazard models of first and subsequent births, distinguishing women’s and men’s on-site work, occasional and usual WFH, self-employment, and non-employment, as well as their couple-level configurations. The association between WFH and fertility is strongly context-, gender-, and parity-specific. For first births, women’s WFH is positively associated with entry into parenthood in France and Austria, but negatively in Poland, particularly when combined with temporary employment. For subsequent births, women’s WFH is linked to higher birth risks in France and Austria, whereas in Poland, this pattern appears only when she works from home and he works on-site. Men’s WFH shows little association with fertility. These findings highlight that WFH operates as both a resource and a strain: supportive policies and secure employment can turn WFH into a facilitator of family formation, whereas their absence may transform it into a source of constraint and inequality. |
| Keywords: | work from home, flexible work, fertility, couples, Europe |
| JEL: | J13 J81 J16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-35 |
| By: | Andrea Weber; David Card; Wolfgang Dauth; Wolfgang Frimmel; Julia Schmieder; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | How big are the gains to international migration? How do they vary across migrants? We study these questions using linked administrative data for Austria and Germany, focusing on migrants who were steadily employed 2-4 years before their move and using their previous co-workers as a comparison group for a difference-in-differences design. We combine data from the origin and destination countries for 5 years after the move, allowing us to assess the gains for those who remain in the destination and those who return. On average, migrants from Austria to Germany experience an immediate and persistent rise of around 13% in their daily wage relative to their matched co-workers, while migrants from Germany to Austria gain about 4%. The higher returns for Austrians are mainly driven by higher average wages in Germany, rather than by differential selection of migrants. Consistent with a dynamic learning model, the returns to migration are largest for migrants who remain in the destination country, smaller for those who return after 1-4 years, and zero or even slightly negative for those who return in less than a year. They are also larger for migrants who follow established cross-border networks between workplaces. To help interpret our findings we conduct a parallel analysis of domestic migrants who move to a larger city (Vienna or one of the 5 largest cities in Germany). “Big city” movers experience gains in wages of about 5% for Austrians and 10% for Germans. Again the gains are largest for those who remain in the destination city, with smaller effects for those who move on. |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35774 |
| By: | Cirillo, Valeria; Divella, Marialuisa; Simone, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of income inequality across Italian provinces, focusing on the interaction between digitalisation and labour market flexibility. Using a novel provincial panel that combines Italian Labour Force Survey (LFS) data with detailed information on tasks from the INAPP-ISTAT Survey on Italian Occupations (ICP) and tax-based income records from Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance (MEF), we show that a higher incidence of non-standard employment reduces the labour share, lowers average employment income, and increases the gap between high- and low-income earners. Digitalisation, measured through the digital task intensity of local occupations, is associated with higher average incomes but also greater income polarisation. However, the income gains from digitalisation weaken and eventually disappear in provinces characterised by more precarious employment. Overall, the findings suggest that the digital transition, in the absence of stronger labour market protections, may reinforce rather than reduce territorial disparities. |
| Keywords: | Non-standard work, Digitalisation, Wage inequality, Labour-market dualisation, Regional inequality, Italian provinces |
| JEL: | J31 J41 J42 O33 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1816 |
| By: | Ernst, Sebastian (LSE); Mueller, Andreas (University of Zurich); Spinnewijn, Johannes (LSE); Bollens, Joost (VDAB) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the use of algorithmic risk profiling to direct job search support toward individuals most at risk of long-term unemployment. Using three regression discontinuity designs and administrative data from the Flemish Public Employment Service (VDAB) in Belgium, we address two key dimensions: whom and when to target. First, job search counseling raises employment on average, but treatment effects decline sharply with predicted risk. This reveals a trade-off between targeting those most at risk and those most responsive to intervention. Second, we find no evidence that treatment effects depreciate at the individual level, but strong dynamic selection: as spells lengthen, surviving job seekers have both higher baseline risk and lower treatment responsiveness, with opposing implications for the returns to treatment. We develop and calibrate a conceptual framework for optimal targeting that highlights the key role of the ratio of predicted treatment effects to predicted job-finding probabilities. Targeting rules combining both objects substantially outperform the status quo, yielding welfare gains nearly three times those from random assignment, while targeting on risk scores alone performs worse than random assignment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, targeting, treatment effect heterogeneity, regression discontinuity, public employment services, machine learning |
| JEL: | J64 J65 H43 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18934 |
| By: | Louis-Alexandre Bayol (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Using Google Search Volumes (GSV), I develop the GSV-based Digitization of Payments Index (GSVDPI), a multidimensional metric built via machine and deep learning models, to track the evolution of digital payments. This index allows for quantifying the changes in the use of digital payment instruments (card, contactless, mobile, and others) in France and comparison with other European countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain. Compared with standard payment digitization statistics published by institutions like the European Central Bank (ECB), the GSVDPI offers distinctly valuable and real-time insights. Consequently, the GSVDPI accounts for the complex dynamics and policy expectations of the digitization process, which are typically overlooked by univariate metrics. I contribute to the literature by identifying the economic mechanisms driving digital payment adoption and examining its macroeconomic effects through a cross-country analysis. I show that incorporating the GSVDPI into the explanatory variables of a multivariate cash demand framework significantly enhances model performance, thereby offering deeper insights into future payment trends. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:carp26:11 |
| By: | Françoise Delmez; Ilan Tojerow |
| Abstract: | This policy brief, the first in a three-part series on Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), reviews prevalence rates and risk factorsfor IPV victimisation and perpetration, with a focus on Belgium set against the European context. Drawing on EU-leveland Belgian survey data, it shows that around 15% of ever-partnered women in Belgium report lifetime physical violence, 30% psychological violence, and 8% sexual violence from a current or former partner, with substantially lower rates ofofficial reporting to police than of self-reported victimisation. The brief then synthesises the scientific literature on thedeterminants of IPV, distinguishing between lifetime risk factors (adverse childhood experiences, mental health, poverty, and cultural norms including « male backlash »), factors shaping the frequency and severity of violence (age, relationshipand separation status, presence of children), and situational triggers (alcohol use, job loss, unwanted pregnancy). Itconcludes by highlighting the absence of systematic Belgian data linking IPV to health and legal outcomes, a gap that limitsthe design of policies targeting victims with intersecting needs. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:bpaper:2013/414039 |
| By: | Antonio Accetturo (Bank of Italy); Michele Cascarano (Bank of Italy); Andrea Locatelli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Zombie firms may hinder growth not only via capital misallocation, but also by tightening local labor markets. This paper studies whether zombie prevalence weakens healthy firms' ability to expand employment when they face positive export-demand shocks. Using Italian firm-level data for 2015-23, we exploit the variation in the incidence of employment in zombie firms over active population at local labor market level and firm-specific exposure to exogenous export-demand shocks constructed with a shift-share design. We show that firms located in local labor markets with a higher share of employment in zombie firms exhibit a weaker employment response to foreign-demand shocks. Effects are strongest for white-collar workers and for micro and small firms, consistent with tighter constraints on scarce skills and greater reliance on local hiring. Results are robust to alternative zombie definitions and shock constructions. |
| Keywords: | zombie firms, labor hoarding, labor misallocation, foreign demand shocks, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J23 D22 G33 R23 F16 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1058_26 |
| By: | Kesternich, Martin; Tinnefeld, Vicky Leoni; Werthschulte, Madeline |
| Abstract: | The abrupt shortage of natural gas imports during the 2022/2023 energy crisis following Russia's war against Ukraine forced European countries to rapidly cut consumption. In response, governments and energy providers introduced voluntary gas-saving programs offering financial incentives to residential customers. We study one such program - a critical peak rebate (CPR) launched by one of Germany's largest energy providers - that offered a six-month per-unit bonus for demand reductions at a time when wholesale gas prices spiked but regulated retail prices remained fixed, muting the price signal households actually faced. Combining household meter readings with survey data, we use a difference-in-differences design to "stress test" a CPR scheme. We show that the program-induced average gas savings amount to 13.2 to 17 percent. Participation was more likely among higher consumption, higher income and pro-socially motivated households, who also achieved larger absolute savings. This reveals a trade-off between program effectiveness and distributional considerations in the design of demand flexibility programs. |
| Keywords: | Critical peak rebates, residential energy savings, energy crises, program enrollment, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 D12 D91 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343563 |
| By: | Noelia Cámara; Sirenia Vázquez |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the saving capacity of Spanish households in 2024. Income is the determining factor. Additionally, household size and housing tenure are key variables that significantly influence family savings. |
| Keywords: | Savings, Inequality, Spain, Consumption, Employment, Real Estate, Pensions, Working Paper |
| JEL: | D14 D12 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2615 |
| By: | Peter Tóth (Národná banka Slovenska; Ekonomická univerzita v Bratislave) |
| Abstract: | This presentation examines how households adjust to large economic shocks and how these responses shape life satisfaction. Using panel data from the Slovak household finance and consumption survey combined with district-level variation in COVID-19 severity, the analysis distinguishes between exposure to the shock, household adjustment, and the transmission of these adjustments into life satisfaction. Empirically, the presentation combines a difference-in-differences design with a mediation framework to examine how shock severity affected income, consumption, wealth, and saving behavior and how these changes were reflected in life satisfaction. The results reveal substantial and uneven economic disruption beneath stable average life satisfaction. Income losses and consumption adjustments are concentrated toward the upper end of the preshock income and consumption distributions, indicating marked heterogeneity in exposure. Households most affected by income losses adjust through saving decumulation and reductions in discretionary consumption, while basic consumption remains comparatively stable. These patterns are consistent with intertemporal consumption smoothing. Despite substantial economic adjustment, the transmission of these changes into life satisfaction is limited. The resulting indirect effects operating through income, consumption, and wealth are small and statistically insignificant. The findings show that the absence of an average effect reflects attenuated transmission rather than limited economic disruption. More broadly, the results underscore that the welfare consequences of large shocks depend not only on exposure but also on the mechanisms through which households adjust and absorb disruption. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:carp26:06 |
| By: | Chen Luo (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)); Ewa Jarosz (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam); University of Oslo, Department of Psychology); Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)) |
| Keywords: | fertility, work-life balance, job exposure matrix, self-reported stress |
| JEL: | J13 J81 I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-34 |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Hannu Karhunen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Sanni Kiviholma (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE); Jeremias Nieminen (Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE) |
| Abstract: | Several countries use immigration liberalization as a place-based policy tool, but evidence on its regional effects remains almost entirely descriptive. We examine the causal impact of removing labor market testing (LMT) regulations for labor immigrants in all occupations in the remote Finnish region of North Karelia. The reform allowed firms to hire non-EU foreign workers in all occupations without first advertising jobs to domestic applicants, resulting in a 14% rise in the stock of immigrant workers. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences methods, we estimate causal effects of the reform at the regional, municipal, firm establishment, and individual levels. The reform caused immigrant inflows to increase primarily in cities and in specific types of occupations, i.e., low-paying occupations and ISCO groups 5, 7, 8, and 9. Across the firm size distribution, the increases concentrate around the median and the top. We find little evidence that the policy had meaningful effects on other regional or municipal outcomes: immigration liberalization boosted labor supply without generating transformative medium-term regional effects. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labor supply, aging population, regional economy, labor market testing, synthetic control, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | R11 R58 J20 J38 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:365 |
| By: | Duletzki, Lisa-Marie (IAB, FAU und Universität Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | "Since the mid-2000s, publicly funded childcare for children under the age of three has been expanded substantially in Germany. But to what extent does improved access to childcare affect mothers’ labor market trajectories after the birth of their first child? An analysis of regional differences in the expansion of childcare shows how mothers’ labor market participation and earnings change around the birth of their first child." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202615 |
| By: | Magdalena Grabowska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)) |
| Abstract: | Rising female employment and earnings have transformed partners’ economic positions, while gender divisions in unpaid labor persist. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the organization of paid and unpaid work, opening a window to reassess these two dimensions within couples. Using longitudinal panel data from Poland (2021–2024), this paper examines how relative income and the division of unpaid labor relate to both life satisfaction and partner satisfaction among partnered adults. Random-effects models reveal distinct gendered patterns. For men, these dynamics are associated primarily with global life satisfaction: men report higher life satisfaction when they out-earn their partners, but substantially lower life satisfaction when they are out-earned and primarily responsible for domestic work. For women, effects concentrate in partner satisfaction: women who out-earn their partners report lower partner satisfaction when they also perform most domestic labor. These patterns hold for both housework and childcare and are observed primarily in the post-pandemic period. |
| Keywords: | relative income, unpaid labor division, subjective well-being, intra-couple income distribution, Poland |
| JEL: | I31 J12 J16 D13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-28 |
| By: | Petter Lundborg; Adrian Nieto |
| Abstract: | We examine how early exposure to STEM professionals in the local neighborhood shapes children’s long run educational and labor market outcomes. To identify causal effects, we use Swedish register data and several sources of variation in exposure to STEM qualified neighbors measured at the 100 by 100 meter grid. Exposure during compulsory education raises children’s math performance, and evidence points to social ties as the main channel. It also increases the presence of boys and girls in science programs in high school and university, but mainly boys are more likely to complete a STEM bachelor degree. This gender gap persists into adulthood: STEM employment and earnings rise predominantly for boys. The results show that high skill professionals can serve as community based informal role models and that neighbors can shape long run educational and labor market trajectories. |
| Keywords: | STEM, science, neighbors, role model, human capital, labor trajectory |
| JEL: | I2 J2 J3 O3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12955 |
| By: | Wiebke, Franziska; von Philipsborn, Peter (University of Bayreuth); Buyken, Anette E. |
| Abstract: | Abstract Introduction Subnational governments can play an important role in influencing food environments, particularly in multilevel governance systems such as Germany, where multiple levels can introduce policy and legislation. Yet the extent to which subnational governments, including the German States, use this potential remains largely unexplored. To make the scope of subnational food environment policies explicit, comparable and assessable, we developed a state-specific Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI), using Germany as an example. Methods The INFORMAS Food-EPI served as the starting point for our analysis. To adapt it to the subnational level, we followed an iterative process drawing on four data sources: i) legal and policy documents and secondary sources; ii) key informant interviews; iii) written feedback from experts; and iv) an online expert workshop. Results The state-specific Food-EPI covers 25 indicators across 12 domains, outlining the substantial scope of subnational governments to influence food environments. The policy domains are food labelling, advertising and marketing, subsidies, provision, retail and food service and waste, combined with six infrastructure support domains. We drew on 128 documents to identify 57 good practice examples from subnational governments and adapted the INFORMAS protocol into a streamlined four-step approach. Conclusion We demonstrate that it is feasible to develop a tool to assess food environment policy at the subnational level, that systematically outlines the substantial influence of subnational governments on food environments. Applying the state-specific Food-EPI in practice to German States is an important next step to further corroborate its practical relevance. |
| Date: | 2026–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2sy4m_v1 |
| By: | Matteo Sartori (Bank of Italy); Marco Guido Palladino (Banque de France, IZA); Eliana Viviano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Italian firms use fixed-term contracts (FTCs) and documents the relative importance of seasonal needs, worker screening and buffer-stock motives. Using matched employer–employee data for 2013–2017 merged with firm-level balance-sheet information, we select a set of firms that systematically rely on temporary employment, generating over 85 per cent of its total volume. By focusing on these firms, we show that two ex ante contract features - the seasonal label and the initial duration - are highly informative about firms' hiring intentions. Use of seasonal contracts is limited and concentrated in a narrow set of sectors, while longer initial durations strongly predict conversion into permanent jobs, reflecting screening behaviour driven mainly by firm-specific factors. In contrast, most FTCs are short, non-seasonal and concentrated in firms dealing with lower productivity and higher revenue volatility, consistent with buffer-stock adjustment. A clustering exercise confirms that about 10 per cent of firms predominantly use seasonal contracts, one fourth use FTCs for screening, and roughly 65 per cent rely on them to manage uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | fixed-term contracts, screening, contract conversions, seasonal workers, productivity |
| JEL: | J23 J41 J63 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1543_26 |
| By: | Janson, Joakim (Linnaeus University and); von Essen, Emma (Department of Sociology, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study how anonymity affects fake-news sharing on social media using a natural experiment on Flashback, a large Swedish online discussion forum. In 2014, journalists obtained information that allowed them to identify users registered before March 2007, sharply increasing these users’ risk of public exposure while leaving later registrants unaffected. Using a difference-in-differences design on 1.98 million posts, we find that exposed users reduce references to fake-news sites by about one-quarter of the mean. The effect is concentrated in immigration and domestic-politics discussions and does not extend to legitimate news sources, suggesting that accountability reduces misinformation without reducing news sharing more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Online; Anonymity; Text data; Fake news; Machine learning |
| JEL: | D10 D80 D83 D90 |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1566 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania, NBER, and CEPR); Carlos Sanz (Banco de Espana and CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | How socially distinct are competing political parties’ candidate pools? Since names encode cultural milieu, lineage, linguistic origin, and ancestry that standard socioeconomic variables miss, we measure social sorting across parties with names, predicting affiliation out of sample within municipality-years. Across more than 2.5 million local-election candidates, names pick the right-wing candidate in a random within-municipality pair 55.8% of the time in Spain and 56.5% in France. Given names alone do most of the work: around 55.0%. Under a stylized model of intergenerational transmission of political orientation, this translates to an implied gap of about 25 p.p. in parental naming propensities. The signal is stable in Spain but doubles in France by 2026. Within ideological families, names separate parties as sharply as across the right–left divide, even more so in France. The Spanish cleavage is linguistic and growing. The French one runs through names of immigrant origin and is strongest in large cities. |
| Keywords: | Names; Political selection; Social sorting; Political cleavages; Party candidates;Machine learning prediction |
| JEL: | D72 J15 Z13 C53 |
| Date: | 2026–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-017 |
| By: | Carmelo Rodríguez à lvarez (ICAE Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, Depto. Análisis Económico y Economía Cuantitativa, Universidad Complutense de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We investigate interval selection problems in which a society chooses an interval from a discrete ordered set. We consider a domain of interval-monotonic preferences, where each voter has an interval of acceptable integers, benefits from enlarging the selected interval by including acceptable integers, and is worse off when unacceptable integers are included. We study how different institutional frameworks affect the design of strategy-proof interval choice functions. In particular, we distinguish between unrestricted interval selection and the expansion of a commonly accepted status quo interval. We show that the latter transforms interval selection into a separable multidimensional choice problem, whereas unrestricted interval selection remains intrinsically multidimensional. This institutional distinction leads to fundamentally different characterizations of strategy-proof interval choice functions. |
| Keywords: | Strategy-proofness, Interval Choice Function, Interval-monotonic Preference. |
| JEL: | C72 D71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2601 |
| By: | Federico Gallina |
| Abstract: | Recent decades have witnessed a surge in the number of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This thesis studies how the approval of these agreements is affected by electoral accountability and how the rules of origin (RoO) embedded in FTAs affect firms’ sourcing decisions. In the first chapter, I combine data on legislators’ votes on FTAs with measures of their constituents’ economic interests. Contrary to influential arguments, Members of the European Parliament are more likely to support FTAs that benefit their constituencies, and alignment with constituents’ economic interests increases their probability of re-election. Similar patterns emerge for legislators in the US Congress. In the second chapter, I exploit Brexit as an exogenous trade shock and French administrative data to examine the firm-level effects of the RoO introduced by the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). These rules reduce sourcing from non-TCA countries and decrease firms’ sales, employment, and productivity. In the third chapter, I construct product-level measures of RoO restrictiveness for South Korea’s FTAs with the European Union and the United States. I show evidence of spillovers across FTAs: differences in the restrictiveness of RoO lead to an increase in imports from the trade partner in the FTA with more restrictive RoO. |
| Keywords: | Electoral Accountability; Trade Agreements; EU and US legislators; Rules of Origin; Heterogeneous Firms; Input Sourcing; Trade Diversion |
| Date: | 2026–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/413350 |
| By: | World Bank; Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas; Minale, Luigi; Úbeda, Paloma; García, Lucia Gorjón; Lafuente, David Martínez de |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Spain’s 2022 immigration reform, which relaxed the eligibility requirements of the country’s continuous regularization system, thereby accelerating pathways to legal status without introducing a one-off amnesty. Combining administrative and survey data, we exploit the reform using complementary generalized difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, and instrumental variables strategies to estimate its effects on migration flows, immigrant labor market outcomes, and local economic conditions. We find no evidence that the reform generated “magnet effects”: neither immigration inflows nor the stock of irregular migrants increased following its implementation. Instead, the reform substantially shortened the period spent in irregular status, reducing undocumented immigrants’ waiting time for legal residence by approximately one year. While earlier access to legal status led to some suggestive improvements in job quality and labor market trajectories, we find limited evidence of short-run employment gains. We argue that this pattern is consistent with negative selection among immigrants regularized under the post-reform regime. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:212902 |
| By: | Knarik Poghosyan; Martin Kalthaus; Nadine Riedel; Michael Rothgang; Anne-Marie Scholz |
| Abstract: | We estimate the direct and indirect causal effects of Germany’s Leading-Edge Cluster Competition on firm size, inventive activity, and joint patenting. With €600 million allocated to 15 clusters, this program is one of the largest cluster policy programs in Europe. Using a staggered event-study design, we estimate the direct effect of the cluster policy on firms within the funded clusters. Additionally, we differentiate between funded and non-funded cluster members to assess the effects of the financial and the systemic components of the policy. Furthermore, we estimate the indirect spillover effect of this program on firms in close proximity to the funded clusters that are not associated with them. Our results show that the cluster policy has a direct overall positive effect on firm size and inventive activity, but a negative effect on collaboration in inventive activity. Differentiating between funded and nonfunded cluster members reveals that the latter benefit strongly from the systemic component of the cluster policy, increasing their inventive activity while having no significant effect on collaboration. In contrast, we do not observe any indirect effects on geographically proximate non-cluster firms. Our results provide causal evidence of the direct benefits of cluster policy at the firm level but call into question the anticipated indirect effects of cluster policy on neighboring non-cluster firms. |
| Keywords: | Cluster Policy, Spillover Effects, Policy Evaluation, Patent Data, Event Study |
| JEL: | O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2181 |
| By: | Stepan Kucera (Department of Finance and Accounting, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of improvements in road transport infrastructure on the intensity of inter-municipal work commuting in the Czech Republic over the period 2011–2021. The study uses linked census data on commuting flows between more than 79, 000 origin-destination municipality pairs, together with network-based estimates of travel times derived from OpenStreetMap. Using the Open-Source Routing Machine (OSRM), we estimate first-difference OLS models that relate changes in normalised commuting intensity to absolute changes in road travel time, while controlling for pre-existing commuting linkages between municipalities and a set of controls variables. We find that a one-minute reduction in travel time raises car-based commuting intensity by approximately 0.12 to 0.17 car commuters per 1, 000 economically active residents. This positive effect remains consistent across both intra-regional and intra-district spatial specifications. The analysis of heterogenous effects reveals a pronounced gender asymmetry. The travel time effect is negative, sizeable, and statistically significant for female commuters in all specifications, while it is statistically indistinguishable from zero for male commuters. For women, shorter travel time thus acts as a catalyst for work commuting across all model specifications. By contrast, for male commuters, the estimated effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero in the pooled national sample, while in alternative specifications the effect remains very weak. Education-stratified results indicate that the aggregate effect is driven primarily by workers with secondary education, whereas workers with either basic or tertiary education do not appear to respond to infrastructure improvements, or more specifically to reductions in commuting time. Stratification by sector of employment shows statistically significant results particularly in the primary and secondary sectors. While shorter commuting times in agriculture and manufacturing are associated with an increased intensity of work commuting, the results for the services sector are less clear-cut and vary across model specifications. Overall, the findings suggest that the labour market returns to road infrastructure investment are highly specific. Reductions in travel time increase car-based commuting, but the magnitude of the effect is modest. Both the strength and direction of the effect depend on the population group considered and on the broader economic-geographical context. Road infrastructure may therefore operate as a potential mechanism for improving labour market access among selected sociodemographic groups, while primarily reinforcing existing commuting corridors rather than generating entirely new ones. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure; commuting; labour mobility; spatial mismatch; gender; Czech Republic |
| JEL: | R41 R12 J61 H54 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:114_2026 |
| By: | Rainer Eppel (WIFO); Thomas Horvath; Helmut Mahringer (WIFO); Christine Zulehner |
| Abstract: | Temporary layoffs – employment separations followed by recall to the same employer – are widely used to buffer short-term demand fluctuations, yet their long-term worker consequences remain poorly understood. Using Austrian administrative data and propensity-score matching, we estimate their long-run effects by comparing workers experiencing short, non-seasonal interruptions during their first employment year with similar workers whose employment continues uninterrupted over the same first-year period. Outcomes are measured from the second year onward. Over ten years, affected workers accumulate about 3.5 months less employment and three months more unemployment, while cumulative earnings decline by more than 6, 000 €. Monthly earnings during employment are also slightly lower, providing no evidence of compensating wage differentials. The results indicate substantial worker welfare costs and fiscal externalities and suggest that current institutional arrangements may encourage firms to shift adjustment costs to workers and the unemployment insurance system. |
| Date: | 2026–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:734 |
| By: | Luca Brugnara (Bank of Italy); Gianmarco Cariola (Bank of Italy); Pasquale Recchia (Bank of Italy); Simone Zuccolalà (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a firm-level input–output framework to measure participation in production networks using transaction-level data and applies it to the automotive industry. Using a novel dataset of firm-to-firm transactions, we construct a firm-specific measure of supply chain exposure based on the Ghosh inverse, which is a sufficient statistic for the upstream propagation of demand shocks within a standard production network model. We use this framework to trace both direct and indirect sales linkages across firms. We find that around 8, 000 Italian firms are significantly exposed to the EU automotive industry, with indirect linkages accounting for more than half of the supply chain. Exposure is highly heterogeneous across firms, sectors, and regions, and simulated demand shocks generate sizeable upstream propagation effects: a 1 per cent decline in final demand for cars would reduce value added among final producers by 63 million euros, with an additional 93 million propagating upstream through the network. The framework is scalable and can be extended to other downstream industries with clearly identifiable final producers, providing a flexible tool for analysing production networks and the upstream transmission of demand shocks. |
| Keywords: | production networks, firm-to-firm transaction data, shock propagation, automotive industry |
| JEL: | D57 L14 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1041_26 |
| By: | Otten, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether gender differences in teacher-assigned grades vary systematically across subjects. Using data from German secondary schools, I compare teacher-assigned grades with anonymously graded standardized test scores within a difference-in-differences framework. Across six core subjects spanning the humanities and STEM, I find systematic grading differentials favoring female students. The estimated differential is largest in German and Math and substantially smaller in English and the sciences, indicating considerable cross-subject heterogeneity. The differential also varies markedly by school track and teacher experience, with systematically larger estimates in the academic track and particularly pronounced differentials among novice teachers. |
| Keywords: | Gender differences, Teacher grading, Grade test differential, Educational inequality |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343541 |
| By: | Ahmed Ación López; Carlos Vidal-Meliá |
| Abstract: | We develop an actuarially grounded NDC counterfactual to benchmark Spain’s pay-asyou- go defined-benefit pension system. Using MCVL administrative microdata for 2015– 2023, we reconstruct individual notional capital from contribution histories and compare it with the actuarial cost of DB entitlements for retirement, disability and survivorcontingent reversibility. Italy’s NDC experience serves as an institutional reference highlighting the need for explicit treatment of non-old-age contingencies. DB costs generally exceed NDC capital, revealing implicit transfers not captured in retirement-only assessments. Disability generates the largest deviations, while survivor reversibility adds contingent liabilities. Results support distinguishing contribution-based entitlements, contingent liabilities and redistributive effects. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-29 |
| By: | Matthew Curtis; Paula Eugenia Gobbi; Marc Goñi; Joanne Haddad |
| Abstract: | Centuries before the demographic transition, the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) lim-ited fertility in Western Europe through high celibacy, late marriage, and nuclear households.Whether the EMP reflected female empowerment or instead financial hardship remains de-bated. This paper shows that local inheritance institutions determined where economicopportunity strengthened the EMP and where the EMP reflected poverty. We construct anew atlas of 2, 486 rural and urban inheritance customs in France and Belgium and combineit with genealogical data on 75, 000 women born between 1500 and 1750. We show that theEMP manifested alongside earning opportunities where inheritance included women andyounger siblings, but that the EMP reflected economic distress where inheritance was ine-galitarian; that effects differed between urban and rural areas; and that they persisted overcenturies. We develop and estimate a structural model in which inheritance rules affectmarriage decisions through female empowerment and financial constraints. The estimatesimply that roughly 65 percent of celibacy reflected choice rather than constraint, suggestingthat the EMP was heterogeneous but primarily a positive force for female empowerment. |
| Keywords: | European Marriage Pattern; Celibacy; Customs; Inheritance |
| JEL: | D10 J10 K11 N33 O10 |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/413756 |
| By: | Laura Schuerer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In many countries, consumption-based emissions are increasingly concentrated at the top of the distribution, and there are growing calls in public debate for climate policy to target emission-intensive luxury consumption more strongly. Yet while financial distributional effects of carbon pricing are well studied, its impact on the distribution of emissions across households remains less well understood. This paper first characterizes the demandside conditions under which uniform carbon pricing increases or decreases consumption-based carbon inequality within countries in a simple partialequilibrium setting with heterogeneous households. Applying the main result to Germany suggests that uniform carbon pricing would slightly reduce carbon inequality, while a stylized approximation of carbon pricing in Germany increases it. The paper then compares differentiated carbon pricing, where luxury goods are priced at a higher rate than necessities, with the standard benchmark of uniform carbon pricing. While the latter is attractive in terms of efficiency, it does not necessarily outperform differentiated pricing, both regarding financial and emissions-based distributional effects. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:456 |
| By: | Bonin, Simone Maria (Danmarks Nationalbank and Aarhus University); Gorshkov, Andrei (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We study the transmission of firm-specific export shocks through labor markets, examining how these shocks influence workers’ wages at competing firms via labor market competition. Using rich Danish administrative data, a flexible, empirically driven definition of workers’ outside options, and an identification strategy based on world import demand shocks, we show that both own-firm and competitor export shocks raise incumbent workers’ wages. These export-driven shocks also trigger competitive worker reallocation, as expanding exporters poach workers from other firms. The results indicate spillover effects of export shocks extending to non-exporting firms. |
| Keywords: | labour market competition; export shocks; worker outside options |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_016 |
| By: | Abrell, Jan; Rausch, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | By extending carbon pricing to buildings and road transport through ETS2, the European Union is undertaking a major policy experiment in market creation. ETS2 overlaps national emissions budgets and technology requirements, raising a general question: when does a legal market govern allocation? We distinguish three functions of market effectiveness: scarcity, exchange, and allocation authority. Completing exchange and allocation authority lowers present-value EU policy costs over 2028-2048 by 25.5%, or EUR 1.33 trillion relative to legal market creation only. Allocation authority accounts for 76% of savings; 88% of member states benefit. Compensating remaining losses requires EUR 6 billion, only 0.2% of ETS2 revenues. Restoring allocation authority raises the allowance price but lowers policy cost, implying that the endogenous carbon price in an ETS is not a sufficient statistic for welfare across institutional designs. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Emissions trading, Market design, EU ETS2, Effort Sharing Regulation, Equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 C68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343564 |
| By: | Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Railteam, an alliance of European high-speed operators, offers HOTNAT: passengers who miss a cross-border connection may board another member's next available train at no extra charge. The European Commission's May 2026 Passenger Package would extend passenger rights across multi-operator journeys, making HOTNAT's design a live question. Reciprocity saves transaction costs while claims roughly balance, but operators differ in network size, connecting traffic, frequency, reliability and the value of a spare seat. Without settlement, the operator causing a missed connection shifts part of the cost to whoever carries the passenger, weighing most heavily on small point-to-point operators. Attribution suffers too: the passenger meets the operator without a seat, not the one that caused the delay. When authorised passengers outnumber spare seats, no published rule decides who travels. Onward travel should stay free at the point of use. A flat, causation-based clearing tariff with netting and a published priority order would preserve that benefit, spread recovery costs neutrally and sharpen reliability incentives. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:formoe:344001 |
| By: | Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola (WZB - Social Science Research Center Berlin); Jessen, Jonas (WZB - Social Science Research Center Berlin); Ong, Pinchuan (National University of Singapore); Pan, Jessica (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of −0.65–close to the quasi-experimental estimate of −0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners’ own reports. |
| Keywords: | marginal propensity to earn, pension reform, hypothetical scenarios |
| JEL: | J22 H55 D84 J26 D10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18944 |
| By: | Cahuc, Pierre (Sciences Po, Paris); Carry, Pauline (Princeton University); Malherbet, Franck (Paris Graduate School of Economics, ENSAE); Martins, Pedro (Universidade Nova de Lisboa) |
| Abstract: | Employment protection legislation often varies with firm or establishment size and age, and many evaluations of EPL reforms exploit these thresholds. This paper develops a search-and-matching model with multi-establishment firms to disentangle direct effects from general-equilibrium spillovers. We combine the model with quasi-experimental evidence from a 2009 Portuguese reform that restricted fixed-term contracts in young establishments of large firms. Spillovers barely distort the reduced-form estimate, yet they overturn the aggregate conclusion: extrapolating the reduced-form estimate implies a 1.51% employment decline, compared with a 0.11% increase in general equilibrium. Counterfactuals show that conditioning EPL on size versus age can yield opposite welfare effects, even when employment effects are similar, and that fixed-term contract and firing restrictions must be evaluated jointly. |
| Keywords: | employment protection legislation, general-equilibrium spillovers, fixed-term contracts, contingent regulation, directed search, structural estimation |
| JEL: | E24 D58 J41 J63 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18909 |
| By: | Fabrizio Leone (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | How does a domestic firm's production process change when it is taken over by a foreign multinational? Using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms covering the 1990-2017 period, this paper shows that acquired firms become significantly more likely to adopt industrial robots and that this shift towards automation reduces their labour share. To isolate these effects from selection into foreign ownership and robot use, the analysis combines nearest-neighbour matching with a staggered event-study design. Following an acquisition, affiliates' labour share falls by 6.5 percentage points (15 per cent relative to the sample mean), while their probability of adopting robots rises by 11 percentage points (30 per cent relative to the sample mean); robot adoption alone accounts for roughly one third of the acquisition-induced labour share decline. These patterns are consistent with the predictions of a model in which heterogeneous firms choose both their ownership structure and whether to adopt robots. They also remain robust after controlling for alternative explanations for the decline in the labour share, including factor-biased technical change, intangible capital and market power. |
| Keywords: | foreign acquisitions, robots, automation, labour share |
| JEL: | F23 F66 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1539_26 |
| By: | Arkadiusz Lipiecki; Nikolaos Kourentzes; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.23223 |
| By: | Jakub Daněk; Frédéric Dobruszkes |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/413757 |
| By: | Frank Stähler; Andrea Tulli |
| Abstract: | We study bidding in a broad class of price-based procurement mechanisms in which the lowest bid does not always win. These mechanisms are used when cost overruns and non-compliance affect contract execution. We first characterize equilibrium bidding behavior in a general setting with endogenous winning probabilities. We then analyze mixed auction formats in which bidders face uncertainty about the allocation rule, as in the Italian system where a lowest-price or average bid rule is selected based on participation. We show that increasing reliance on the latter can improve compliance but raises bids and expected payments, highlighting a trade-off between contract performance and low award prices. |
| Keywords: | procurement, average bid auction, cost overrun |
| JEL: | H57 D44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12970 |