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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson; Anthony Lepinteur; Alan Piper |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature finds poor mental health is hump-shaped with respect to age, whilst subjective wellbeing is U-shaped. Recent cross-sectional studies indicate a change in this relationship driven by the declining mental health of the young. We contribute to this literature by re-examining the age patterns in subjective wellbeing and illbeing for individuals in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden). We do so with fifteen waves of the COME-HERE (CH) panel survey for 2020-2025 plus data from the Global Minds (GM) surveys of 2020-2026 for the same countries. We show that wellbeing rises and illbeing declines in a roughly monotonic fashion with age. This is found both with cross-section data from the CH and GM data, and from longitudinal plots of person fixed effects by age in the CH data. |
| Keywords: | subjective wellbeing; mental health; age; despair; panel data |
| JEL: | I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26200 |
| By: | Lutz Bellmann; Christian Dustmann; Bernd Fitzenberger |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution, institutional structure, and current challenges of collective bargaining in Germany. Collective bargaining addresses labor market imperfections, redistributes productivity gains, and shapes working conditions. The German system is centered on industry-level agreements, complemented by firm-level agreements and voluntary adoption of industry-level bargaining outcomes by formally uncovered firms ("orientation"). It has historically supported cooperative labor-management relations, while allowing for flexibility during economic downturns. We document long-term declines in union density and bargaining coverage, partly mitigated by orientation. Moreover, coverage is lower among low-wage workers. We conclude by discussing the future of Germany's collective bargaining institutions in the context of structural economic change and the growing role of the statutory minimum wage, and draw comparison between Germany and the US. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26187 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | The domain and influence of majority European Countries, was naturally evidenced on this approach in particular, where the study for example evidence many European Countries won the world cup tournament, these Countries are naturally strong riches, Countries such as France, England, Italy, Germany and Spain show naturally this particularly, mainly relatively with the existence of high economic performance in general. The empirical investigation shows that majority European Countries naturally have the high world Futebol domain. The sports culture of these Countries are significantly relevant, improved by the main futebol leagues of the world, such as Premier League, Ligue One, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A in Italy. On the other hand, these Countries in particular, normally canalize high levels of budgets to the sports sector, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, normally allocate U$d 13, 6 billion, U$d 2 billions, u$d 3, 7 billions dollars, and u$d 6, 4 billion dollars, respectively. Furthermore, these Countries have naturally high quality of sports infrastructures that are significant, on the other hand, the three emergent Countries won the tournament, such as Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. These Countries share in particular the same relevant characteristics, that are relatively strongly influenced by sports experience in particular and the infrastructure levels that existed naturally reinforce this evidence significantly. Others key factors that contribute naturally to this high quality of sports domains, are naturally relatively with the capacity of investment that each team normally receives. In the last decade, some teams received significant investment such as the Paris Saint German in France, with a significant investment from some Arab Companies. |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t3ncq_v1 |
| By: | D’Alessandro, Francesco; Santarelli, Enrico; Vivarelli, Marco |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional technological relatedness and local AI knowledge influence regional innovative activity, as measured by patenting activity. Using a novel three-way longitudinal dataset (670 four-digit CPC classes × 302 NUTS-2 regions × nine four-year periods, 1986–2021) and leveraging a deep learning-based identification of AI patents, we show that two broad mechanisms operate in parallel. First, in accordance with the extant literature, technologies that are cognitively close to a region’s existing patent portfolio enjoy higher patenting activity, confirming that relatedness remains a strong and persistent predictor of innovative output. Second, local AI endowments are positively associated with patenting across technological fields, even after conditioning on relatedness, indicating that AI plays an enabling and cross-cutting role in a given regional innovation system. Moreover, the interaction between relatedness and AI turns out to be negative and statistically significant, implying that AI attenuates the extent to which local innovative efforts depend on the technology’s proximity to the regional portfolio. In sum, AI appears to enhance overall local innovative activity while reducing its reliance on pre-existing regional knowledge structures. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, AI, regional innovation, relatedness, Technological change |
| JEL: | O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2026012 |
| By: | Mette Ejrnaes (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Thomas H. Joergensen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Franziska Valder (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how households use family planning to navigate constraints is important for policy design. We exploit a large Danish retirement reform that affected intergenerational time transfers to study how family planning responds to changes in time constraint tightness. Using administrative data on the universe of abortions and prescriptions for planned and emergency oral contraception, we show that alleviating time constraints reduces both abortions and contraceptive use and thereby shifts behavior toward childbirth. Our results highlight that time constraints shape responses to especially unplanned pregnancies and that policies easing household constraints may influence abortion behavior and family planning. |
| Keywords: | Time constraints, Unintended pregnancies, Abortion, Contraceptives, Childbirth, Childcare, Retirement Reform. |
| JEL: | J13 I38 D64 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2616 |
| By: | Cosimo Petracchi (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Luca Riva (Central Bank of Ireland, University College Dublin); Marco S. Petterson (Naples Federico II and CSEr) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a firm-level mechanism that explains why exchange-rate regimes are largely neutral with respect to real macro variables: exporters actively adjust marginal costs and markups to absorb nominal exchange-rate fluctuations. Me quantify this mechanism using micro-level data from the European car market (1970–99). Me show that floating regimes are associated with limited adjustment in destination-currency prices and limited response in quantities sold. Me then estimate a structural demand-and-supply system to recover product-level markups and marginal costs. At breaks from pegged to floating regimes, producer-currency markups (marginal costs) fall on impact by around 11% (10%). A two-country real business cycle model with segmented financial markets, incorporating pricing-to-market and operational hedging, rationalises these patterns. Our model underscores the role of real micro rigidities, rather than nominal rigidities, in the weak transmission of exchange-rate fluctuations to real macro variables |
| Keywords: | European car market, exchange-rate regimes, demand estimation, pricing-to-market, variable markups, real rigidities |
| JEL: | D22 R31 R41 L11 L62 N14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:627 |
| By: | Biondi, Filippo; Inferrera, Sergio; Mertens, Matthias; Miranda, Javier |
| Abstract: | We study changes in job reallocation in Europe after 2000 using novel microaggregated data that we collected for 19 European countries. In all countries, we document broad-based declines in job reallocation rates that concern most economic sectors and size classes. These declines are mainly driven by dynamics within sectors, size, and age classes rather than by compositional changes. Simultaneously, employment shares of young firms decline. Consistent with US evidence, firms’ employment has become less responsive to productivity shocks. However, the dispersion of firms’ productivity shocks has decreased too. To enhance our understanding of these patterns, we derive and apply a firm-level framework that relates changes in firms’ market power, labor market imperfections, and production technology to firms’ responsiveness and job reallocation. Using German firm-level data, we find that changes in markups and labor output elasticities, rather than adjustment costs, are key in rationalizing declining responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | Business dynamism; job reallocation; productivity; responsiveness of labor demand; market power; technology; European cross-country data |
| JEL: | D24 D43 J21 J23 J42 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-16 |
| By: | Fieles-Ahmad, Omar Martin; Kvasnicka, Michael; Libet, Victor |
| Abstract: | We study whether the sharp rise in petrol prices following the bombing of Iran on 28 February 2026 affected the short-run demand for battery electric vehicles in EU-27 countries. Using monthly vehicle-registration data and fixed-effects panel regressions, we show that the petrol-price shock increased battery electric-vehicle adoption, in particular in countries with better charging infrastructure and lower charging costs. Our findings suggest that higher fossil-fuel prices can accelerate the transition towards electric mobility. |
| Abstract: | In unserer Arbeit untersuchen wir, ob der starke Anstieg der Benzinpreise nach dem Bombenangriff auf den Iran am 28. Februar 2026 die kurzfristige Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos in den 27 EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verändert hat. Anhand monatlicher Kraftfahrzeug-Zulassungsdaten und Panelregressionen mit festen Effekten zeigen wir auf, dass der Benzinpreis-Schock die Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos gesteigert hat - insbesondere in Ländern mit einer besser ausgebauten Ladeinfrastruktur und niedrigeren Ladekosten. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass höhere Preise für fossile Brennstoffe die Transformation hin zur Elektromobilität beschleunigen. |
| Keywords: | War, oil price shock, fossil fuel prices, electric cars, mobility transition, EU 27 |
| JEL: | D12 Q42 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:342546 |
| By: | Lea Best; Sebastian Link; Manuel Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | We use a large panel survey of German manufacturing firms spanning five decades of quantitative investment plans and realizations to study the persistence of investment dynamics. We proxy adverse investment shocks with large downward revisions of firms’ investment plans. Even ten years after a 50% downward revision, annual investment remains about 15% lower. Combining the survey with balance-sheet data and survey-based shock proxies, we show that financial frictions are only part of the explanation. Persistent investment declines are also closely linked to long-lived demand shocks, suggesting that they often reflect firms’ deliberate adjustment to weaker fundamentals. |
| Keywords: | investment, firm dynamics, persistence of adverse shocks, financial frictions, demand shocks. |
| JEL: | D22 D25 E22 E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12876 |
| By: | Ketevani Kapanadze; Mariola Pytlikova |
| Abstract: | In response to COVID-19, Schengen countries temporarily reintroduced internal border controls, disrupting cross-border integration. Using this policy change as a natural experiment and monthly nighttime lights data, we estimate the short-run effects on European municipalities. Municipalities along internal Schengen borders experienced a 3-4% decline in economic activity relative to interior municipalities, with larger estimated effects when external-border municipalities form the comparison group. Losses were greater in smaller and less densely populated municipalities and along economically asymmetric East-West borders, whereas municipalities along more economically similar borders generally experienced smaller declines. The effects also depended on the pre-pandemic purpose of cross-border mobility: higher shares of work- and business-related travel, services, and shopping were associated with larger losses, while the results for leisure and social mobility are consistent with greater scope for domestic reallocation of activity. Overall, the findings show that the local consequences of internal border closures depend on municipality characteristics, cross-border economic asymmetries, and the purpose of mobility. |
| Keywords: | Border closures; Cross-border mobility; Schengen Area; Nighttime lights; Local economic activity; Border regions; COVID-19; European integration |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 F15 F22 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26218 |
| By: | Wolff, Guntram B.; Binder, Johannes; Morgan, Thomas |
| Abstract: | * This report is built on an update of the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker, covering the UK, Poland and Germany up to January 2026. We show that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, German military procurement reached roughly €85 bn and dominates overall European military procurement, compared with about €25 bn in the UK and €21 bn in Poland. But is Germany also leading in innovation? * Defence strategies differ across the three countries. Germany's defence strategy is endorsed only by the defence minister and remains disappointing at both the strategic and the military-technological level. Reflections on Germany's contribution to European defence outside a US-led NATO are absent. While only partially public, reflection on lessons from changing warfare are limited and do not translate into a priority strategy. The UK's strategy review as well as Poland's defence strategy each carry the prime minister's backing and argue for lessons from Ukraine to be translated into an ambitious agenda. * We measure the shift toward the new warfare paradigm in our unique procurement dataset. Based on an LLM-assisted classification of all 736 procurement orders in the dataset, only about 12% of spending is dedicated to new-paradigm systems. In Germany, absolute spending on this category has stagnated over 2020 to 2026 while its share has fallen distinctively. The UK has raised absolute spending but seen its share stagnate; only Poland has increased both the absolute amount and the share of procurement devoted to new-paradigm equipment. * Germany, despite the highest spending levels in Europe, shows the slowest transformation of the three, possibly reflecting the absence of top-level political leadership. A re-orientation of Germany's procurement strategy is needed to prioritise early technological change. An update of military and training doctrines would be the necessary complement. Failing to learn the lessons may well mean that credible deterrence capabilities are not achieved or at excessively high costs. * We also show that across all three countries, the data confirm a strong home bias in procurement, with purchases from global suppliers falling sharply in 2025. Genuinely pan-European procurement remains extremely limited, pointing to fragmented industrial bases rather than a coordinated European rearmament effort. * Moreover, we show that expected delivery timelines at the time of ordering are long: Where final delivery dates are specified, they typically fluctuate between two and four years across all three countries. In Germany, however, a growing share of orders is placed without any reported specified delivery date, a trend not observed in the UK or Poland. |
| Keywords: | Defence, Armament, Weapon industry, Procurement, Germany, Europe, Russia |
| JEL: | H41 H56 H57 H60 L64 N44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkrp:342469 |
| By: | Cunningham-Vitt, Helena; Weber, Jan David |
| Abstract: | Public infrastructure shapes everyday opportunities, yet little is known about how balanced access to work, social reproduction, and leisure as public commons is distributed across households. Existing studies typically assess single services or regional averages, overlooking the relational nature of accessibility of public commons and differences in households' ability to privately substitute for missing public commons. We use German SOEP microdata to construct the relative distance for the three public commons and map households into a ternary space that captures their compositional accessibility. We also develop a Private Substitution Index that identifies the extent to which households rely on private substitutes to offset gaps in public infrastructure. Together, these measures reveal how households position themselves when facing infrastructural trade-offs. Most households exhibit relatively balanced access, but this average masks clear patterns: some live close to work and far from the other public commons, others show the opposite tilt. Urban-rural differences are substantial, while East-West differences are modest. Private substitution capacity rises steeply with income, driven by remote-work feasibility and living-space advantages, whereas public substitution in social reproduction remains limited. These findings show that balanced access to public commons is highly uneven and cannot be understood through single amenities or regional summaries. Policies aimed at spatial justice must consider both positional trade-offs and unequal capacities for private substitution. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:342535 |
| By: | Paul Bingley; Lorenzo Cappellari; Marco Ovidi; Matteo Sandi |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal evidence on the intergenerational effects of parental criminal victimization originating outside the family. Using population-wide Danish administrative data, we compare end-of-compulsory-school examination scores of children exposed to parental victimization with those of matched controls, and exploit victimizations occurring after compulsory schooling to account for residual selection. Violent, but not property, victimization lowers children's mathematics scores by 0.03 standard deviations, rising to 0.05 standard deviations for exposure in early childhood, a period when parental inputs are especially consequential for skill formation. Deterioration in family stability, paternal behavior, and labor market attachment following victimization emerge as the primary mechanisms, pointing to an underappreciated channel of intergenerational inequality. |
| Keywords: | Parental criminal victimization, intergenerational spillovers, children's human capital, early childhood |
| JEL: | K42 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26210 |
| By: | Michael Barczay; Shafik Hebous; Tom Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | This paper studies heterogeneity in the pass-through of Germany's temporary VAT reduction in July 2020. Using confidential product-level CPI data, we document substantial dispersion in consumer-price responses: nearly half of standard-rate products show no consumer-price change, while 30 percent exhibit full pass-through. Lower-income households experienced somewhat larger proportional price declines than higher-income households. Using an inverse-optimality consistency test, we show that, once the full revenue loss is considered, the reform cannot be rationalized by any progressive weighting of gains across income groups. |
| Keywords: | VAT, tax incidence, fiscal stimulus, pass-through |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12922 |
| By: | Fieles-Ahmad, Omar Martin; Kvasnicka, Michael |
| Abstract: | Following reunification, anti-foreigner crimes rose sharply in the former GDR. Using county-level data for the early 1990s, we study if regional access to Western TV, i.e. non-socialist media, prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall had an impact on regional levels of serious anti-foreigner crime (murder and arson) in East Germany. We find that East German counties with no access to Western TV exhibit higher rates of such crimes, as in the 'valley of the clueless' around Dresden. This crime-attenuating effect of Western TV proves robust in a battery of robustness checks and underscores the importance of media for anti-foreigner attitudes and crimes well before the rise of the internet and social media. |
| Abstract: | Nach der Wiedervereinigung stieg die Zahl ausländerfeindlicher Straftaten in der ehemaligen DDR stark an. Mithilfe von Landkreis-Daten aus den frühen 1990er-Jahren untersuchen wir, ob der regionale Zugang zu westlichem Fernsehen, also zu nichtsozialistischen Medien, vor dem Mauerfall Einfluss auf die regionale Häufigkeit schwerer fremdenfeindlicher Straftaten (Mord und Brandstiftung) in Ostdeutschland hatte. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass ostdeutsche Landkreise ohne Zugang zu "Westfernsehen" höhere Raten solcher Straftaten aufwiesen, wie beispielsweise im "Tal der Ahnungslosen" rund um Dresden. Dieser kriminalitätsmindernde Effekt des westlichen Fernsehens erweist sich in einer Reihe von Robustheitsprüfungen als stabil und unterstreicht die Bedeutung der Medien für Einstellungen gegenüber Ausländern und für fremdenfeindliche Straftaten - und zwar lange vor dem Aufkommen des Internets und der sozialen Medien. |
| Keywords: | Crimes Against Foreigners, Western TV, Immigration, East Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:342545 |
| By: | Jonathan Pardo; Sulin Sardoschau |
| Abstract: | Do migrants become more anti-immigration over time? How do incumbents react to new arrivals? We link large-scale survey data to local immigration flows across 138 European regions from 2002 to 2024, identifying effects via a leave-out shift-share instrument within a triple-difference design. Immigrants arrive strongly pro-immigration, but support erodes over time, halving the native-immigrant gap within two decades. Exposure to new inflows contributes to this convergence: a rising local immigrant share reduces pro-immigration attitudes for both groups, with substantially larger effects for first-generation immigrants. Low-skilled incumbents respond more to inflow size, high-skilled to newcomers' skill composition. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, backlash, attitudes, newcomers |
| JEL: | D74 J15 D83 Z10 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26182 |
| By: | Joschka Flintz; Stefanie Gaebler; Viktoria Kleinschmidt; Felix Roesel |
| Abstract: | Does better railway infrastructure encourage people to register less private cars? We analyse the opening of 170 train stations in Germany between 2010 and 2022 and compare them to a control group of locations that were identified as potential sites for new stations. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that annual car registrations within the catchment area of a newly opened station decline by at least 3.5 to 5.5 percent permanently. These effects are consistent in both urban and rural settings and correspond, on average, to at least 140 fewer car registrations over ten years for each new station. Further evidence suggests that the effects are driven by habit changes rather than by spatial sorting, leading to the conclusion that new train stations reduce the number of car registrations both locally and globally. |
| Keywords: | train stations, railway infrastructure, car registrations, sustainable transport |
| JEL: | L92 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12927 |
| By: | Grimm, Michel; Kerner, Philip; Klarl, Torben |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty is a major theme of complex and multilayered socio-technical transitions such as the transition to a sustainable energy system. Thereby, uncertainty can delay investment decisions and affect the prospects and speed of the transition. Additionally, the energy transition is shaped by local conditions and transition paths differ across sub-national regions. In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the effects of uncertainty in the energy transition by proposing a novel energy-transition-related uncertainty index at this sub-national level. To achieve this, we use recent advances in Natural Language Processing and a novel dataset of localized German news articles at the German NUTS 2 level. We discuss our new index in detail and compare it to established measures of uncertainty to show that it is well suited to purposefully capture uncertainty related to the energy transition. In our empirical application, we show that regional uncertainty related to the energy transition is driven by common national-level factors and region-specific path dependence simultaneously. Furthermore, we report robust evidence for regional uncertainty shocks leading to a quick decline in investment in solar photovoltaics. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Large Language Models, News Data, Renewable Energy Investments |
| JEL: | Q43 D80 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atv:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Raffaele Giammetti (University of Cassino and Southern Lazio); Giuseppe Spataro (Marche Polytechnic University); Davide Ticchi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences - Marche Polytechnic University, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Does the political response to globalisation depend on how regions are integrated into global production networks? We combine regional input-output measures of global valuechain exposure with lower-house election outcomes for 249 NUTS-2 regions in 24 European countries over 2000–2010. We distinguish seller-side exposure to foreign final demand (FPEX) from buyer-side exposure to foreign production (FPEM), and measure regions' average position relative to final demand. In two-way fixed-effects specifications, FPEX is positively associated with populist vote shares: a one-within-region-standarddeviation increase in FPEX (about 1.1 percentage points) is associated with an increase of roughly 3.5 percentage points in the populist vote share. When FPEX and FPEM are included jointly, FPEX remains positive and statistically significant, the buyer-side estimate is small and statistically not significant, and a formal test rejects equality of the two coefficients. The FPEX association is weaker in regions with higher average upstreamness and higher service-employment shares. The FPEX point estimate is larger in Central and Eastern Europe; a pooled interaction confirms a positive difference, although it is significant only at the 10 percent level under wild-cluster-bootstrap inference. Results are qualitatively similar under an alternative, narrower authoritarian-populist classification and are not reproduced for green-party voting. The findings highlight a politically relevant distinction within the architecture of international integration: dependence on foreign final demand is more consistently associated with populist voting than total buyer-side dependence on foreign production. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, populism, political backlash, structural dependence, input-output analysis, regional economics. |
| JEL: | F14 F60 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:509 |
| By: | Coskun, Sena |
| Abstract: | In a number of European countries, unemployment rates for young college graduates are higher than for young high school graduates. This presents a challenge for canonical models of unemployment that suggest that unemployment should decrease with education. I offer a framework based on a search and matching model with productivity differences and the possibility of mismatch where relative efficiencies are estimated using the wage data and the structure of the model. My counterfactual analysis shows that the productivity channel is crucial in explaining relative unemployment rates whereas labor market frictions are crucial in estimating relative efficiencies. |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19351 |
| By: | Jantos, Louisa; Dekker, Thekla; Bizer, Kilian |
| Abstract: | Institutions shape the conditions under which entrepreneurship and innovation unfold, yet how their degree of openness mediates sustainability-oriented development trajectories remains systematically underexplored. Drawing on 98 expert interviews across four high-performing European innovation regions, Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Zürich, we develop and empirically ground a multi-dimensional framework of institutional openness as a dynamic regional capacity. Our findings reveal that institutional density is a necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability-oriented regional development: what matters equally is institutional permeability-the table to which regional configurations remain open to external actors, knowledge, and alternative development trajectories. Helsinki's highly integrative configuration stands in marked contrast to Zürich's more fragmented one, with Copenhagen and Stockholm occupying distinct intermediate positions. The interaction between formal and informal institutional dimensions, and the underappreciated role of intermediary organizations, critically determines whether regions can redirect entrepreneurship and innovation toward sustainability goals. We derive implications for place-based innovation policy. |
| Abstract: | Institutionen prägen die Bedingungen, unter denen Unternehmertum und Innovation entstehen, doch wie ihr Grad an Offenheit nachhaltigkeitsorientierte Entwicklungspfade beeinflusst, ist bislang systematisch untererforscht. Auf der Grundlage von 98 Expert*inneninterviews in vier leistungsstarken europäischen Innovationsregionen - Helsinki, Kopenhagen, Stockholm und Zürich - entwickeln und verankern wir empirisch einen mehrdimensionalen Rahmen institutioneller Offenheit als dynamische regionale Kapazität. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass institutionelle Dichte eine notwendige, aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung für nachhaltigkeitsorientierte Regionalentwicklung ist. Ebenso entscheidend ist institutionelle Permeabilität, das Ausmaß, in dem regionale Konfigurationen gegenüber externen Akteur*innen, Wissen und alternativen Entwicklungspfaden offen bleiben. Helsinkis hochintegratives Institutionengefüge steht in deutlichem Kontrast zu Zürichs stärker fragmentierter Konfiguration, während Kopenhagen und Stockholm jeweils eigenständige Zwischenpositionen einnehmen. Das Zusammenspiel formaler und informaler institutioneller Dimensionen sowie die unterschätzte Rolle von Intermediärsorganisationen bestimmen maßgeblich, ob Regionen Unternehmertum und Innovation auf Nachhaltigkeitsziele ausrichten können. Wir leiten daraus Implikationen für eine ortsbezogene Innovationspolitik ab. |
| Keywords: | Institutional Openness, Institutional Theory, Sustainable Entrepreneurship, Sustainable Regional Development |
| JEL: | O31 O32 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:342483 |
| By: | Ozan Güler (CUNEF Universidad); Ilia Samarin (National Bank of Belgium, Economics and Research Department) |
| Abstract: | We study how guarantee fees affect lending by exploiting the Belgian COVID-19 loan guarantee program, which charged lower fees to SMEs than to large firms. Using this size-based fee discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design, we show that large firms facing higher fees are more likely to obtain non-guaranteed loans that are cheaper than comparable guaranteed loans. Both banks and firms benefit from avoiding the fee: borrowers pay lower rates, and lenders retain part of the avoided fee as higher returns. Overall, fees discourage guaranteed lending and concentrate guaranteed loans among ex-ante riskier large firms, resulting in higher ex-post defaults. |
| Keywords: | Public loan guarantees, guarantee fees, bank lending, COVID-19 pandemic DSGE model, Monetary policy, Bayesian learning, Bayesian estimation. |
| JEL: | G18 G21 H12 H81 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202608-495 |
| By: | Nocciola, Luca; Scaglioni, Samuele |
| Abstract: | We analyze the Probability of Default (PD) of non-financial corporations in Europe using Random Forests (RF) and assess implications for stress testing the banking sector. To this end, we exploit data on firms’ financial statements (Orbis) and banks’ credit registry (Anacredit). We show that RF displays stronger risk sensitivity than logistic regression in stress testing, shedding new light on the non-linear effect of scenario severity on PD. Moreover, we show how RF-based PD can be used in a network of banks and firms to stress test the banking sector through loan exposures as a key transmission channel of adverse scenarios. A granular inspection of banks’ riskiness indices derived from this network sheds light also on RF’s superior ability in capturing non-linearity thanks to its capability in identifying “tail banks”. Our work is relevant for central banks and banking supervisors alike. JEL Classification: C53, C55, C58, G17, G21 |
| Keywords: | banking supervision, corporate exposures, credit risk, financial stability, random forests |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263277 |
| By: | Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Benjamin Rübenacker; Ulrich J. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Many European companies face the challenge of lowering CO2 emissions from their company car fleets. A promising lever is to increase the notoriously low electric usage of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This paper examines whether home charging infrastructure can help achieve these goals. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the delivery and installation of home chargers to quantify the impact of this technology on energy use and CO2 emissions of PHEV company cars held by 856 employees of a large German company. Since fuel and electricity expenditures for these cars are covered by the employer, home charging mainly changes the non-monetary costs to an employee. We find that access to home charging almost quintuples electricity consumption: Total charging increases by 318 kWh per quarter while fuel consumption falls by 98 liters, reducing tailpipe CO2 emissions by 38%. Moreover, access to home charging doubles the employee’s propensity to choose a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) upon renewal of the lease. Based on these estimates we compute the private levelized abatement costs of home chargers for a range of scenarios characterizing the diffusion of BEVs and the evolution of tax-inclusive energy prices over a 20-year horizon. Home chargers break even within twelve years, saving on average 13 tons of CO2 over a 20-year lifetime at negative levelized cost. |
| Keywords: | charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, electric driving share, technology adoption, company cars, marginal emissions |
| JEL: | D12 L91 Q52 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_663v2 |
| By: | Francesco Del Prato; Yaroslav Korobka; Paolo Zacchia |
| Abstract: | How much wage dispersion is attributed to workers, firms, and their sorting depends on how wages are adjusted for observed characteristics. Standard AKM decompositions impose a known linear adjustment. We develop Generalized AKM, a framework that permits an unknown smooth covariate function and group-specific nonlinear interactions while preserving the original variance components. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality with heteroskedastic errors and many fixed effects, and characterize the stronger smoothness required for quadratic forms. In Portuguese employer-employee data, adding worker and firm-input controls lowers the bias-corrected worker-effect variance from $0.551$ to $0.474$ of total wage variance, firm-effect variance from $0.144$ to $0.121$, and sorting from $0.080$ to $0.047$. Across three group-specific nonlinear bases, firm-effect variance remains between $0.114$ and $0.117$ and sorting between $0.041$ and $0.042$, while worker-effect variance ranges from $0.474$to $0.491$. Which controls enter matters more for firm variance and sorting than how flexibly they enter; worker variance remains more sensitive to the basis. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.09686 |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Tommaso Frattini; Camilla Piovesan; Giuseppe Pulito |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of Europe's refugee population has come to an end. Drawing on new UNHCR data, this report shows how falling asylum inflows, the naturalisation of earlier refugee cohorts in Germany, and a reform of temporary protection in Italy are reshaping refugee numbers. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:crmrep:2605 |
| By: | Thomas F. Epper; Ernst Fehr; Kristoffer B. Hvidberg; Claus T. Kreiner; Søren Leth-Petersen; Basit Zafar; Claus Thustrup Kreiner |
| Abstract: | We examine whether individual preferences predict higher education choices. According to standard human capital theory, differences in individuals’ time and risk preferences lead to differences in educational investments. Testing this hypothesis is challenging, as it requires measuring individuals’ preferences, doing so before they make educational investments, and subsequently observing their educational choices. We combine incentivized, experimentally elicited measures of time and risk preferences for a large, representative sample of 18–19-year-old Danes with administrative data on subsequent higher education choices, program-specific earnings trajectories, prior school performance, and family background. In line with theory, we find that more patient individuals choose longer education programs and programs with steeper early-career earnings profiles, while more risk-averse individuals select programs with lower earnings dispersion and reduced downside risk. These relationships remain strong after controlling for cognitive ability, prior academic performance, and family background. Our findings suggest that preferences have a substantial impact on real-world educational investments and have implications for educational sorting. |
| Keywords: | risk preferences, time preferences, educational choices |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I26 C91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12954 |
| By: | Voss, Rebecca; Ulrich, Immanuel |
| Abstract: | Musikalische Erfahrungen für Kinder in Kindertagesstätten stellen sowohl nach den Bildungsplänen der Länder als auch nach den Empfehlungen musikpädagogischer Fachkräfte ein erstrebenswertes Ziel dar. Dies wird auch durch Forschungsergebnisse unterstützt, nach denen musikalische Tätigkeiten u.a. Stresserleben reduzieren und die Fähigkeiten zur Selbstbeherrschung fördern. Um jedoch Fachkräfte in der Kita für das Musizieren mit Kindern musikpädagogisch zu qualifizieren, zeigen unsere Recherchen in der Vorbereitung der geplanten Studie, dass in Deutschland möglicherweise zwei musikpädagogische Szenen parallel nebeneinander existieren, zwischen denen kaum Austausch zu bestehen scheint. Da zugleich zum Grad der realen Umsetzung musikpädagogischer Angebote in der Kita noch keine deutschlandweiten Evidenzen vorliegen, wird unser abschließend detailliert vorgestelltes Umukita-Projekt diese Forschungslücke in den Fokus nehmen. |
| Abstract: | Musical experiences for children in preschools are a desirable goal, both according to state education plans and the recommendations of music education professionals. This is also supported by research findings, which show that musical activities reduce stress and promote self-control, among other things. However, our research in preparation of the research project shows that in order to qualify daycare professionals to teach music to children, there seem to bee two parallel music education scenes in Germany with assumed little exchange between them. Since there is still no Germany-wide evidence on the degree to which music education programs are actually implemented in preschools, our Umukita project, which will be presented in detail at the end, will focus on this research gap. |
| Keywords: | Frühkindliche Bildung, Musikpädagogik, empirische Studie, landesweite Reichweite, Early Childhood Education, Music pedagogy, empirical study, nationwide scope |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhso:342470 |
| By: | Peter Haan; Julia Schmieder; Izabela Wnuk-Soares |
| Abstract: | We study how immigration affects prices through changes in labor supply. Using policy-driven increases in immigration to Germany and administrative data covering the universe of nursing homes, we find that one additional foreign-born woman per 100 residents reduces nursing-home care prices by 2.6 percent. The price effects are concentrated in more competitive markets. Examining potential mechanisms, we find that immigration lowers labor costs as nursing homes shift toward lower-paid foreign-born workers. We find no evidence of declines in inspection-based measures of quality or of scale effects. Finally, immigration increases the use of informal care, potentially strengthening competitive pressure from the broader care market. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, labor supply, prices, nursing homes |
| JEL: | J61 F22 J30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2177 |
| By: | Mikkel Aagaard Houmark; Mathias Mørk |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with issues related to estimating the causal impact of teachers on student test scores. The central challenge is that students and teachers are matched non-randomly. To deal with this, we propose an extension of the standard teacher value-added model that is more robust to such endogenous mobility bias than conventional models. We then apply and extend recent innovations in bias correction of variance components to quantify the overall importance of teachers and estimate patterns of sorting and segregation. We find that teachers in Denmark are more important for student inequality than the conventional approaches would suggest. Further, we document a novel pattern of negative sorting that is driven by compensatory school investments through the within-school matching of high-value-added teachers to low-ability students. We also show that high-value-added teachers tend to be more experienced and educated and that they are particularly skilled at classroom management. Finally, we present suggestive evidence that these teachers also promote student non-cognitive skills and well-being. |
| Keywords: | teacher quality, value-added, academic achievement, test scores, sorting |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12895 |
| By: | Jantos, Louisa; Bizer, Kilian |
| Abstract: | Regional innovation systems (RIS) and challenge-oriented regional innovation systems (CORIS) represent competing ideal types along a continuum from market-driven to sustainability-oriented innovation governance. Yet how these ideal types manifest empirically, and what forms of system-level agency emerge across this continuum, remains largely unexamined. Drawing on 47 semi-structured expert interviews in Zurich and Helsinki - two European innovation leaders selected through a most different systems design - and analysed through an inductive-deductive thematic coding approach, this paper shows that neither case conforms neatly to either ideal type. Both cities occupy intermediate positions on the RIS-CORIS continuum, with Zurich exhibiting a market-driven logic in which sustainability is contingent on economic viability, and Helsinki a challenge-oriented configuration in which economic development remains a constitutive co-goal. System-level agency operates through fundamentally different mechanisms in each case: resource mobilization through contractual arrangements in Zurich, and the active construction of institutional rationales in Helsinki. Despite these differences, both cases achieve comparable levels of regional innovation capacity - a finding consistent with equifinality across the continuum. Two shared structural limitations are identified: a persistent science-policy translation gap and multi-scalar governance dependencies that constrain regional actors regardless of system orientation. These findings advance the empirical understanding of hybrid RIS configurations and carry direct implications for regions seeking to reconfigure their innovation systems towards challenge orientation. |
| Abstract: | Regionale Innovationssysteme (RIS) und herausforderungsorientierte regionale Innovationssysteme (CORIS) bilden zwei konkurrierende Idealtypen. Sie spannen ein Kontinuum zwischen marktgetriebenem und nachhaltigkeitsorientiertem Innovationsmanagement auf. Wie diese Idealtypen empirisch auftreten und welche systemische Handlungsfähigkeit dabei entsteht, ist bislang kaum untersucht. Die Studie basiert auf 47 halbstrukturierten Experteninterviews in Zürich und Helsinki. Beide Städte wurden als europäische Innovationsführer mit möglichst unterschiedlichen Systemdesigns ausgewählt. Die Analyse erfolgte mittels eines induktiv-deduktiven Kodierungsansatzes. Ergebnis: Keine der beiden Städte entspricht einem der Idealtypen eindeutig. Beide nehmen Zwischenpositionen ein. Zürich folgt einer marktgetriebenen Logik, in der Nachhaltigkeit von wirtschaftlicher Tragfähigkeit abhängt. Helsinki zeigt eine herausforderungsorientierte Konfiguration, in der wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ein konstitutives Nebenziel bleibt. Systemische Handlungsfähigkeit funktioniert in beiden Fällen unterschiedlich. Zürich setzt auf Ressourcenmobilisierung durch vertragliche Vereinbarungen. Helsinki konstruiert aktiv institutionelle Begründungsrahmen. Dennoch erreichen beide Städte ein vergleichbares Niveau regionaler Innovationskapazität - ein Hinweis auf Äquifinalität entlang des Kontinuums. Zwei strukturelle Einschränkungen treten in beiden Fällen auf: eine anhaltende Lücke zwischen Wissenschaft und Politik sowie mehrskalige Governance-Abhängigkeiten. Beide begrenzen regionale Akteure unabhängig von ihrer Systemausrichtung. Die Befunde haben direkte Implikationen für Regionen, die ihre Innovationssysteme in Richtung Herausforderungsorientierung umgestalten möchten. |
| Keywords: | Regional Innovation System, Challenge-Oriented Innovation System, System-Level Agency, Innovation, Sustainability |
| JEL: | O31 R58 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:342484 |
| By: | Mimosa Distefano; Lorenzo Incoronato; Anna Raute |
| Abstract: | Women often struggle to re-enter employment after career breaks, possibly because employers are uncertain about their productivity. We study whether hiring subsidies help firms overcome this uncertainty and hire from this group. Exploiting an Italian policy that temporarily cut payroll taxes for women hired from non-employment, we find that firms persistently hire more women with career breaks, including mothers, following subsidy adoption. Consistent with employer learning about target-group productivity, firms with better initial matches later hire more from this group. Subsidized workers also show stronger labor-market attachment. These findings suggest demand-side interventions can complement supply-side policies in addressing gender gaps. |
| Keywords: | gender employment gap; mothers; hiring subsidies; employer learning; firm hiring behavior |
| JEL: | J16 J23 H25 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26211 |
| By: | Amore, Mario Daniele; Bennedsen, Morten; Larsen, Birthe; Zhao, Zeyu |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale employee surveys and register data from Denmark, we construct firm-level measures of the working environment capturing its physical, psycholog- ical, and social elements. Our analysis reveals that firms with superior working en- vironments perform better in unannounced, third-party job inspections conducted by a government agency. Additionally, these firms demonstrate higher profitability and enhanced innovation quality, as evidenced by patent citations and survey data. Further, leveraging official medical records, we find that employees in firms with better working environments are less likely to experience mental health issues, have fewer workplace accidents, and exhibit lower levels of absenteeism. Collectively, our findings support a synergistic perspective on stakeholder and investor objectives: improving the working environment does not create a trade-off between shareholder value and employee well-being but rather leads to higher gains for both parties. |
| Keywords: | Workplace climate; Working conditions; Surveys |
| JEL: | M14 G30 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19298 |
| By: | Janet Currie; N. Meltem Daysal; Mette Gørtz; Jonas Hirani |
| Abstract: | We ask how a younger sibling's physical disability affects sibling mental health using Danish register data on families with three or more children. Difference-in-difference models compare first- and second-born children when the third-born does or does not have a disability. Use of mental health services increases 13% among second-born children, with a 23% increase in psychiatric visits and an 18% increase in use of psychiatric medications. Effects are concentrated in households where the mother has less than high school and persist after conditioning on child test scores. Parental responses suggest that caregiving demands, stress, and strained resources are potential mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Disability, Mental Health, Siblings, Children |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26186 |
| By: | Pomberger, Nils; Köppl-Turyna, Monika |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how European venture capitalists connect at the partner level and whether observed ties reflect embeddedness and structural-similarity as predicted by network theory. Using PitchBook data on roughly 41, 000 completed European VC deals and approximately 4, 000 European-based VC partners, we reconstruct a large person-to-person network from fund-team affiliations, board co-involvement, and portfolio-executive links. The analysis uses network centrality measures, maximal clique participation, local neighborhood overlap, and Monte Carlo SimRank. The empirical design tests two baseline propositions. First, if cohesive participation captures embeddedness and eigenvector centrality captures influence, more embedded actors should be more central. Second, if ties form among structurally proximate actors, connected dyads should exhibit greater similarity than unconnected dyads. The results support both propositions. Clique participation is moderately positively associated with eigenvector centrality. Observed ties also exhibit substantially higher mean Jaccard similarity than randomly sampled non-ties, and the same pattern holds for Monte Carlo SimRank. |
| Abstract: | Venture Capital spielt eine zentrale Rolle bei der Finanzierung innovativer Unternehmen. Neben Kapital sind dabei vor allem Netzwerke von Bedeutung. Investor:innen tauschen Informationen aus, identifizieren Geschäftsmöglichkeiten, begleiten Unternehmen strategisch und organisieren Folgefinanzierungen. Ein neues Research Paper von Monika Köppl-Turyna und Nils Pomberger untersucht erstmals, wie stark europäische Venture-Capital-Investoren auf Partnerebene miteinander vernetzt sind und welche Strukturen diese Netzwerke prägen. Die Studie basiert auf Daten von rund 41.000 Venture-Capital-Transaktionen in Europa sowie Informationen zu rund 4.000 in Europa tätigen Venture-Capital-Partnern. Auf Basis von Fondszugehörigkeiten, gemeinsamen Mandaten und Verbindungen zu Portfoliounternehmen wird ein umfangreiches Netzwerk rekonstruiert, das mehr als 154.000 Akteure und rund 255.000 Beziehungen umfasst. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass europäische Venture-Capital-Netzwerke keineswegs zufällig entstehen. Vielmehr bilden sich enge Gruppen von Investoren, die über wiederholte Interaktionen, gemeinsame Beteiligungen und ähnliche berufliche Umfelder miteinander verbunden sind. Investoren, die stärker in solche Netzwerke eingebunden sind, nehmen zugleich häufig zentrale und einflussreiche Positionen innerhalb des europäischen Venture-Capital-Ökosystems ein. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Analyse, dass bestehende Verbindungen besonders häufig zwischen Akteuren entstehen, die bereits ähnliche Netzwerke und Kontaktstrukturen aufweisen. Vertrauen, Reputation und Informationsaustausch spielen damit eine wichtige Rolle für die Entstehung und Stabilität von Beziehungen im Venture-Capital-Markt. Das Research Paper liefert damit neue Einblicke in die Funktionsweise des europäischen Venture-Capital-Marktes und zeigt, dass Netzwerke nicht nur die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Investoren prägen, sondern potenziell auch Einfluss auf die Finanzierung, Entwicklung und den Erfolg innovativer Unternehmen haben. Gleichzeitig schafft die Analyse eine Grundlage für zukünftige Forschung zu den Auswirkungen von Investoren-Netzwerken auf Unternehmenswachstum, Anschlussfinanzierungen und Exits. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoarp:342527 |
| By: | Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang; Gillesberger, Michael; Perschke, Simon |
| Abstract: | Regional economic resilience, the capacity of regions to absorb and recover from external shocks, has gained renewed attention in light of recent crises. This paper examines how different forms of economic diversity shaped the resilience of European regions during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09. We distinguish between gross export diversification, value-added export diversification, and domestic sectoral diversity, thereby capturing both external and internal dimensions of economic structure. Our results show that regions with more diversified industrial structures and value-added export linkages experience significantly smaller output losses during the initial downturn. In contrast, the recovery phase is primarily driven by specialization in industrial activities and regional innovation capacity, which facilitate faster postcrisis adjustment. These findings remain robust when accounting for spatial spillovers across regions. Combining gross and value-added trade measures with regional industrial structures, this study provides novel evidence on the distinct channels through which diversity affects resilience. The results highlight a trade-off between short-term shock absorption and the speed of recovery, with important implications for regional development strategies and crisis preparedness. |
| Abstract: | Wirtschaftliche Krisen wirken sich sehr unterschiedlich auf Regionen aus. Während einige Regionen starke Einbrüche verzeichnen, zeigen andere eine höhere Widerstandsfähigkeit und erholen sich schneller. Die Ursachen dieser Unterschiede sind insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund jüngster globaler Krisen von wachsender Bedeutung. Diese Studie untersucht, wie verschiedene Formen wirtschaftlicher Diversifikation die Resilienz europäischer Regionen während der globalen Finanzkrise 2008/09 beeinflusst haben. Dabei unterscheiden wir zwischen Branchen-Diversifikation, Exportdiversifikation und der Einbindung in globale Wertschöpfungsketten. So können sowohl interne Wirtschaftsstrukturen als auch externe Handelsverflechtungen berücksichtigt werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Regionen mit einer breiteren Branchen-Basis besser gegen wirtschaftliche Schocks geschützt sind. Eine diversifizierte Wirtschaftsstruktur und stärkere Verflechtungen entlang der Wertschöpfungsketten tragen dazu bei, negative Auswirkungen abzufedern und Produktionsrückgänge zu begrenzen. Dagegen sind stark spezialisierte Regionen - insbesondere in der Produktion - stärker von Einbrüchen der externen Nachfrage betroffen. Dieser Stabilisierungsvorteil geht jedoch mit einem Zielkonflikt einher. Diversifikation erleichtert zwar die Abfederung von Krisen, führt aber nicht automatisch zu einer schnelleren Erholung. Vielmehr sind es spezialisierte Regionen - insbesondere geprägt durch industrielle Produktion - sowie eine hohe Innovationsfähigkeit, die eine raschere Anpassung und Erholung erfahren. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Analyse die Bedeutung räumlicher Verflechtungen. Wirtschaftliche Schocks und Erholungsprozesse verbreiten sich über regionale Produktionsnetzwerke, bleiben jedoch weitgehend innerhalb nationaler Grenzen. Dies unterstreicht die Rolle institutioneller und wirtschaftspolitischer Rahmenbedingungen auf nationaler Ebene. Insgesamt weisen die Ergebnisse auf einen grundlegenden Zielkonflikt hin: Diversifikation erhöht die Stabilität in Krisenzeiten, während Spezialisierung eine schnellere Erholung begünstigt. Daraus ergeben sich wichtige Implikationen für die regionale Wirtschaftspolitik, da keine einheitliche Strategie zur Förderung von Resilienz ableitbar ist. |
| Keywords: | regional economics, economic resilience, export diversification, multi-regional input-output model, global value chains, Financial Crisis 2008 |
| JEL: | R11 R15 F15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoarp:342493 |
| By: | Albers, Thilo N.H.; Bischof, Daniel (Aarhus University); Kersting, Felix; Kosse, Fabian (University of Würzburg) |
| Abstract: | Why do materially secure citizens embrace populist attitudes? Research on the populist right has focused primarily on economically vulnerable voters and left-behind places, leaving unclear why support extends to citizens who are objectively well off. We argue that a belief-based source of grievance helps explain this puzzle: citizens may underestimate their relative economic standing and feel deprived despite material security. Using a survey module embedded in the Innovation Sample of the German Socio-Economic Panel, we show that pessimistic income-rank misperceptions predict stronger populist attitudes conditional on actual rank. Instrumental-variable and within-household analyses strengthen a causal interpretation. A preregistered survey experiment randomly provides personalized information about respondents' actual income percentile. The control arm replicates the observational pattern; the treatment corrects beliefs and shifts income satisfaction, but does not reduce populist attitudes. Economic grievance can therefore travel upward through perceived status, while becoming politically resistant once organized by populist narratives. |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2s7mc_v1 |
| By: | Brey, Bjorn; Facchini, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | What are the political consequences of de-globalization? We address this question in the context of Weimar Germany, which experienced a 67\% decline in exports between 1928-1932. During this period, the Nazi party vote share increased from 3\% to 37\%. Using newly digitized data, we show that this surge was not driven by the direct effects of the export decline in manufacturing areas. At the same time, trade shock-induced declines in food prices spread economic hardship to rural hinterlands. We document that this indirect effect and the pro-agriculture policies put forward by the Nazis are instead key to explain their electoral success. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Extremism; Germany |
| JEL: | F14 F44 N14 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19383 |
| By: | Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; Kenny, Geoff |
| Abstract: | We use new euro area representative data from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to elicit household-specific propensities to invest and consume out of positive wealth shocks. Using a randomized assignment of hypothetical lottery gains ranging from €5, 000 to €50, 000 and a realistic menu of consumption, saving and asset choices, we estimate the causal effect of wealth shocks on risky asset ownership and conditional asset shares. Wealth shocks have a positive effect on stockholding (between 8.4 and 12.8 percentage points increase in participation for the largest wealth shock). The majority of households do not participate in the stock market, even after a large increase in wealth. The conditional asset share invested in risky assets is constant for wealth shocks up to €20, 000, and edges up slightly (by at most 2%) for larger prizes. Our evidence is consistent with constant relative risk aversion for the majority of risky asset investors, while we also find important heterogeneity in the level of risk aversion across individuals. |
| Keywords: | Household finance; Stock market participation; Risk aversion; Consumer expectations survey |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19279 |
| By: | Berfin Kardaslar (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, DIW Berlin); Alexander S. Kritikos (DIW Berlin, University of Potsdam, GLO Essen, CEPA); Lukas Menkhoff (DIW Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, IfW Kiel) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the relationship between personality traits, captured by risk tolerance and the Big Five traits, and firm size, as measured by the number of employees. We show that the personality of entrepreneurs matters for the size of their firm they operate. We use a novel add-on to the German Socio-Economic Panel that includes a sub-sample of owner-managers running larger firms. High levels of risk tolerance – associated with an increased likelihood of firm exit in existing research – is positively associated with firm size for entrepreneurs in the market. High scores in extraversion are also associated with larger firms. However, a high level of openness for experience, a main driver of founding ventures, is negatively related to firm size. Overall, we show that running larger firms is associated with traits that are partially different from those that increase the likelihood of entrepreneurial entry or survival. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, risk tolerance, personality traits, firm size |
| JEL: | L26 D81 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:106 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Tourism start-ups are helping drive innovation in response to digitalisation, sustainability imperatives and changing traveller expectations. This paper examines how incubators and accelerators support tourism entrepreneurship across European and OECD countries. It highlights a growing and diverse support landscape, but also identifies challenges related to fragmented support, limited scale-up opportunities, and gaps in evidence on programme impacts. The paper outlines policy considerations to strengthen tourism innovation ecosystems, including better co-ordination, stronger industry linkages, more continuous support pathways, and improved monitoring and evaluation. By shedding light emerging practices, it contributes to a better understanding of how incubation and acceleration initiatives can support a more innovative, competitive and sustainable tourism sector. |
| Keywords: | accelerators, digital formation, entrepreneurship, incubators, tourism, travel and tourism start-ups |
| JEL: | Z38 L26 Z3 |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaab:2026/01-en |
| By: | Camille Naudy; Mehdi Guelmamen; Maëlis Renault |
| Abstract: | Transferring investment risk to a private delegatee is frequently advocated as a means of accelerating the construction of public infrastructure. Yet its effectiveness remains ambiguous: an operator that finances the asset has a direct interest in completing it quickly, but also bears a financing cost that a publicly funded operator does not. In France, fibre deployment in commercially unattractive territories is entrusted to Public Initiative Networks, whose delegating authorities choose between arrangements that retain investment responsibility and arrangements that transfer it. Using a quarterly panel of 56 networks observed from 2018 to 2026, constructed from the regulator’s commune-level open data, we investigate whether this choice is associated with the pace at which networks cover their territories. Our econometric analysis, based on a measure of deployment effort normalised by the remaining stock of connectable premises and on randomisation inference at the network level, yields two key findings. First, networks transferring investment responsibility cover their residual territory 4.6 percentage points faster per quarter, roughly thirty percent above the sample mean and some fifteen months in the date at which a territory is substantially served. Second, the association is concentrated among small and medium-sized networks and attenuates among large regional consortia, suggesting that the layering of governance across tiers of local government dilutes the incentives contractual form is meant to create. These findings provide new insights into the organisational design of subsidised infrastructure programmes, suggesting that the contractual architecture through which public money is spent deserves attention alongside its amount and its targeting. |
| Keywords: | public service delegation; incomplete contracts; fibre broadband; investment risk; infrastructure deployment |
| JEL: | L96 L33 H54 D23 R58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-26 |
| By: | Braselmann, Jonas; Schöne, Lars Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Offene Immobilien-Publikumsfonds stehen vor einem besonderen Spannungsfeld: Anleger können ihre Anteile zurückgeben, während Immobilien nicht kurzfristig und ohne Weiteres veräußert werden können. Gerade bei steigenden Mittelabflüssen stellt sich deshalb die Frage, wie früh eine Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft reagieren sollte und welche Liquiditätsmanagement-Instrumente in welcher Situation sinnvoll sind. Mit der AIFMD II und ihrer Umsetzung in deutsches Recht wurde der regulatorische Rahmen für die Auswahl und den Einsatz solcher Instrumente nochmals erweitert. Dieses Arbeitspapier greift diese Entwicklung auf und entwickelt mit dem ELM-Modell einen Ansatz, der Liquiditätskennzahlen und Stresstests mit einer abgestuften Prüfung geeigneter Instrumente verbindet. Anhand eines modellhaften Referenzfonds wird gezeigt, wie sich zunehmender Rückgabedruck auf die Einordnung der Liquiditätslage auswirkt und wann sich der Prüfpfad bis hin zur Rücknahmebeschränkung verschärft. Ziel ist es, die Entscheidung über einen möglichen Instrumenteneinsatz vorzubereiten und nachvollziehbarer zu machen, ohne die Entscheidung der Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft vorwegzunehmen. |
| Abstract: | Open-ended real estate retail funds face a particular tension: investors are able to redeem their shares, while real estate assets cannot be sold quickly or without difficulty. Especially in periods of increasing outflows, this raises the question of how early an asset management company should react and which liquidity management tools are appropriate in a given situation. With AIFMD II and its implementation into German law, the regulatory framework for the selection and use of such instruments has been further expanded. This working paper addresses these developments and introduces the ELM model, an approach that links liquidity indicators and stress tests with a staged assessment of suitable instruments. Using a model reference fund, it illustrates how increasing redemption pressure affects the assessment of the liquidity situation and when the review process intensifies up to the consideration of redemption gates. The aim is to prepare decisions on the possible use of liquidity management tools and make them more transparent, without anticipating the final decision of the asset management company. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iiwmps:343088 |
| By: | Bremer, Björn (Central European University); Baccaro, Lucio |
| Abstract: | Central bank decisions have become politically contested. In response, central banks communicate more with the public, since their effectiveness rests on public trust. Yet whether they reach ordinary citizens is largely unknown. We exploit the European Central Bank’s unexpected announcement of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) during the fieldwork of a March 2020 survey in Germany and Italy. Our results show that the same decisive intervention was rewarded only where it aligned with the perceived national interest: in Italy, trust in the ECB rose, strongest among news-followers and the left; in Germany, trust in the ECB did not move at all, even as trust in national institutions surged. Preferences for central bank goal independence moved in neither country. Citizens thus notice exceptional monetary policy decisions, but their responses are mediated by national interests and discourses, with asymmetric consequences for a central bank that makes one policy for many publics. |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zyvjh_v1 |
| By: | Jansson, Joakim (Department of Economics and Statistics); von Essen, Emma (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | We study how anonymity affects fake-news sharing on social media using a natural experiment on Flashback, a large Swedish online discussion forum. In 2014, journalists obtained information that allowed them to identify users registered before March 2007, sharply increasing these users’ risk of public exposure while leaving later registrants unaffected. Using a difference-in-differences design on 1.98 million posts, we find that exposed users reduce references to fake-news sites by about one-quarter of the mean. The effect is concentrated in immigration and domestic-politics discussions and does not extend to legitimate newssources, suggesting that accountability reduces misinformation without reducing news sharing more broadly. |
| Keywords: | online; anonymity; text data; fake news; machine learning |
| JEL: | D00 D80 D83 D90 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2026_004 |
| By: | Benjamin Friedrich; Michal Zator; Alison Zhao |
| Abstract: | Why do firms report that they cannot find workers instead of preemptively raising wages? Using German administrative data, we show labor-constrained firms pay lower wages and quasi-exogenous wage increases alleviate constraints, consistent with monopsony. Yet constrained firms' delayed wage increases point beyond this mechanism. We develop a dynamic matching model combining wage-setting power with incomplete information and downward wage rigidity. Consistent with the model, firms raise wages when initial wage plans prove too low, especially for peripheral occupations, and face constraints after wage shocks to adjacent sectors, suggesting that firms' inaccurate beliefs and learning about market wages shape labor constraints. |
| Keywords: | Hiring difficulties, wage adjustments, outside options, information frictions |
| JEL: | J23 J31 D83 E24 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26215 |
| By: | Staubach, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | Drawing on tournament theory and human capital theory, this study examines the effect of changes in institutional affiliation on the sporting performance of cheerleading teams in Germany using a quasi-experimental research design. The analysis focuses on clubs that switched from the Cheerleader Vereinigung Deutschland (CVD) to the Cheerleading und Cheerperformance Verband Deutschland (CCVD). To identify the effect of affiliation changes, a difference-in-differences design is employed and complemented by an event-study approach. The dataset comprises 2, 108 competition results from German teams participating in associationopen Varsity competitions between 2006 and 2026. The results consistently indicate that teams achieved stronger competitive outcomes after switching affiliations. The study contributes to research on sport governance, organisational change and sports economics by moving beyond descriptive comparisons and examining the consequences of actual affiliation switches. The findings suggest that changing institutional environments can influence sporting development and provide evidence that organisational mobility may shape competitive outcomes. More broadly, the results highlight the role of institutional environments in influencing the performance trajectories of sports organisations. |
| Abstract: | Auf der Grundlage der Turniertheorie und der Humankapitaltheorie untersucht diese Studie anhand eines quasi-experimentellen Forschungsdesigns die Auswirkungen von Veränderungen der Vereinszugehörigkeit auf die sportliche Leistung von Cheerleading-Teams in Deutschland. Im Mittelpunkt der Analyse stehen Vereine, die von der Cheerleader Vereinigung Deutschland (CVD) zum Cheerleading und Cheerperformance Verband Deutschland (CCVD) gewechselt sind. Zur Schätzung der Auswirkungen dieses Wechsels wird ein Difference-in-DifferencesAnsatz verwendet, der durch Event-Study-Analysen ergänzt wird. Die Datengrundlage umfasst 2.108 Wettkampfergebnisse deutscher Teams aus verbandsübergreifenden Varsity-Wettbewerben im Zeitraum von 2006 bis 2026. Die Ergebnisse zeigen konsistent, dass Teams nach einem Verbandswechsel bessere Wettkampfleistungen erzielen. Die Studie leistet einen Beitrag zur Forschung in den Bereichen Sport-Governance, organisationaler Wandel und Sportökonomie, indem sie über deskriptive Vergleiche hinausgeht und die Folgen tatsächlicher Verbandswechsel untersucht. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Veränderungen des institutionellen Umfelds die sportliche Entwicklung von Teams beeinflussen können, und liefern Hinweise darauf, dass organisationale Mobilität Auswirkungen auf sportliche Wettbewerbsergebnisse hat. Darüber hinaus unterstreichen die Befunde die Bedeutung institutioneller Rahmenbedingungen für die Leistungsentwicklung von Sportorganisationen. |
| Keywords: | Association, Cheerleading, Institution, Organisation, Switching |
| JEL: | C23 L31 L83 Z20 Z21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:343070 |
| By: | Pujadas Mora, Joana Maria; Santiago Caballero, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses to what extent the growth that Spain experienced around the midnineteenth century reached large shares of the local population or was mainly captured by a few. We use the Balearic Islands as a case study and analyse the changes in occupational mobility and social homogamy between 1841 and 1870. Using an original dataset created from civilregistry marriage records, we reconstruct the occupational status of the grooms, their fathers and their fathers-in-law across seven municipalities. We transcribe the occupations using HISCAM and HISCLASS to estimate the patterns of upward and downward mobility, as well as persistence and patterns observed in the marriage market. Our results show that occupational mobility increased during the central decades of the nineteenth century and that this was mainly a consequence of the high levels of upward mobility estimated in 1870. However, this process was not systematic in all the islands. We observe that more urban and commercially connected municipalities, particularly Mahón, offered more opportunities for upward mobility and also showed a more socially heterogeneous marriage market. On the other hand, Alcudia presented worse conditions in mobility patterns, consistent with its long-term demographic, sanitary and port-related problems. The analysis of homogamy shows that local marriage markets and migration status influenced the direction of social distance between families, with migrants not necessarily accessing higher-status marriage alliances even when geographical mobility could have helped them gain access to such alliances. We argue that the Balearic Islands differ from the patterns observed in other regions such as Valencia during the same period because the low initial inequality, diversified agriculture, small-scale manufacturing and access to external markets allowed the benefits of economic development to be better distributed among the local population, reaching broader sectors of society. Therefore, this paper shows that growth and globalisation do not always translate into higher inequality and increasing pauperisation, as their effects depend crucially on local structures and initial inequality levels that shape the access to new opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Social Mmbility; Occupational mobility; Social homogamy; Marriage markets; Balearic islands; Nineteenth-century Spain |
| JEL: | J62 J12 N33 O15 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50617 |
| By: | Shaker, Reza Ardekani; Uitermark, Justus |
| Abstract: | Digital platforms have become key geospatial infrastructures through which cities are discovered, experienced, and evaluated. Whereas the extant literature has often focused on single platforms or assumed an undifferentiated platform urbanism, we know very little about how different platforms produce distinct geographies of urban visibility. To address this lacuna, we examine the spatially differentiated regimes of visibility that emerge when platforms mediate urban environments. In doing so, we distinguish between three dimensions of platforms’ geographies of digital visibility: (1) spatial inequality—how each platform distributes visibility across places; (2) spatial articulation—how platform visibilities map onto local urban geographies; and (3) spatial representation—the kinds of places and content that achieve visibility on each platform. Combining computational, geographic, and interpretive methods, we analyse how 6, 682 eating and drinking establishments in Amsterdam are represented on TikTok, Instagram, Google Maps, and Facebook, and find strikingly weak correlations between their visibility on the four platforms. We find that each platform produces distinct structures of unequal visibility, with algorithmic-discovery platforms concentrating visibility more intensely than review-based systems. Neighbourhood-level analyses further show that platform-specific spatial articulations correspond to the gentrification and touristification of specific areas. Our findings contribute to the literatures on digital geography and platform urbanism by demonstrating that digital platforms generate multiple instantiations of the same city. |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v6pmr_v1 |