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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18859 |
| By: | Federico, Giovanni; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Ridolfi, Leonardo; Vasta, Michelangelo |
| Abstract: | We present new demand-side estimates of GDP per capita for Italy and its two macro-areas, Centre-North and South for the pre-industrial period (1328-1861), based on a novel dataset including almost 95, 000 observations from 169 different locations. Our estimates confirm the chronology of the “Little Divergence†relative to the Netherlands and England. Italy maintained its leading position relative to the other European countries and was overtaken by France and Germany only in the first half of the 19th century. GDP per capita trends differed between Centre-North and South determining a “slow-motion†divergence from the 15th century to the political unification. |
| Keywords: | Italy; Gdp per capita; demand side approach; regional divergence |
| JEL: | N13 E01 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19406 |
| By: | Francesconi, Marco; Sonedda, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Leveraging a major Italian reform enacted in June 2012 that eroded employment protection to workers on permanent contracts, we use detailed administrative data to estimate how this reduction affected the cost of job loss. We employ a stacked-by-event research design, which compares workers moving into nonemployment before and after the reform. Weakening employment protection led to additional penalties in terms of lower re-hiring earnings and lower re-employment probabilities. Heterogeneous effects of the reform deepened pre-existing divides, penalizing more, among others, young workers and workers living in the South. |
| Keywords: | Layoffs; Employment protection; Difference-in-differences; Italy |
| JEL: | J63 J65 J30 J41 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19504 |
| By: | Cahuc, Pierre |
| Abstract: | This article provides an overview of the economic literature on short-time work. It presents the main characteristics of short-time work since its emergence in Germany in the 1930s. It analyzes its effectiveness as a job preservation mechanism, drawing on theoretical models and empirical studies. It concludes by highlighting the areas that future research could explore to address the most significant gaps in our understanding of short-time work. |
| Keywords: | Short-time work |
| JEL: | J23 J41 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19429 |
| By: | Blanchflower, David (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | I examine wellbeing and age in twenty advanced countries. Thirteen are from Northern Europe – Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, plus the five other major English-speaking countries Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA and one from Latin America and one from Asia – Argentina and Indonesia. Two datasets are examined for the US, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Household Pulse Surveys along with ten international datasets - the Eurobarometers, Gallup World Poll, Come Here, the World Values Survey, International Social Survey Programme, the European Social Survey, the EU-SILC survey, the Global Flourishing Study and Global Minds surveys. There is very strong evidence since 2020 that youth wellbeing is low in all of these countries and for each of them is found no matter how the data was collected, whether by interviewer or online. The evidence is similar whether happiness or unhappiness measures are used. |
| Keywords: | youth, CATI, CAWI |
| JEL: | I31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18757 |
| By: | Garbinti, Bertrand; Lamarche, Pierre; Savignac, Frederique |
| Abstract: | We provide detailed estimates of how the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth (MPC) varies along the distribution of household wealth and by asset composition, and analyse the sources of MPC heterogeneity across euro area countries. To do this, we i) build a household-level panel dataset combining wealth and consumption surveys for five European countries, and ii) use instrumented household-level panel regressions. First, we find heterogeneity across the wealth distribution with lower MPCs for high-wealth households. Second, we account for asset composition and show the significant role of housing wealth in all countries. We show that our results are indicative of a collateral channel. Third, cross-country differences in MPCs are mostly explained by country-specific institutional and socio-economic characteristics in Germany (compared to Spain) and by differences in consumption behaviours for Belgium, Cyprus and Italy. We show that MPC heterogeneity is related to homeownership rates, mortgage markets, demographics, and wealth inequality. Finally, we investigate to what extent heterogeneous MPC and wealth inequality affect consumption inequality. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; Household surveys; Collateral channel |
| JEL: | C21 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19413 |
| By: | Badino, Nicolò (Department of Economics, University of Genova); Cardullo, Gabriele (University of Genova); Sechi, Agnese (Department of Economics, University of Genova) |
| Abstract: | How much a household suffers from inflation depends on what it consumes. We show that this simple observation links household expenditure behavior to inflation inequality, welfare losses, and poverty. Building on a non-homothetic CES demand system, we derive household-specific exact cost-of-living indexes and apply them to the 2022 European energy crisis in Spain and Italy. Using household expenditure microdata, we estimate non-homothetic preferences and show that the same expenditure patterns governing Engel curves also determine households' welfare sensitivity to inflation. Consequently, poorer households face substantially larger welfare losses than would be implied by inflation differentials alone, while Italian households exhibit systematically greater welfare sensitivity than comparable Spanish households. Under an anchored poverty line, a common price deflator conceals 1.6 million newly poor in Spain, while in Italy it is nearly innocuous, because the shock is already large enough to push the same households below the line. Our results caution against relying on a single representative-agent price index to assess the distributional consequences of large relative-price shocks. |
| Keywords: | household consumption, non-homothetic preferences, inflation inequality, cost-of-living indexes, welfare, poverty measurement |
| JEL: | D12 E31 I32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18849 |
| By: | Zoltán Hermann (HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Corvinus University of Budapest); Júlia Varga (HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of occupational regulation, a labour market institution affecting many workers, on labour market fluidity in Europe. Using data from 10 European countries, we estimate the effect of occupational regulation on occupational mobility (transition to another occupation) and job loss (transition from employment to unemployment). By leveraging the variation in regulation across countries within an occupation, we identify the regulation effect using a two-way fixed effects approach. We also compare the effects of more and less stringent forms of regulation. The results show that occupational regulation substantially decreases occupational mobility, while its effect on job loss is ambiguous. More stringent regulation (occupational licensing) has a more substantial effect than weaker requirements. |
| Keywords: | occupational regulation, occupation licensing, occupation mobility, labour market fluidity, labour market flexibility |
| JEL: | C01 J08 J44 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2418 |
| By: | Anja Bauer (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Katharina Gangl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen) |
| Abstract: | This study examines possible predictors and consequences of expected inflation, a central determinant of individuals’ decision making. We utilize unique microdata from the German consumption climate survey covering monthly data from more than 220, 000 individuals between 2003 and 2025. Our findings confirm that consumer perception of past inflation plays a decisive role for inflation expectations leading to sticky inflation expectations that need some time to adjust to official inflation statistics. In addition, results indicate that across the sample period, inflation expectations are correlated with reduced individual income expectations. In contrast and as a novelty, the present data shows that the relationship with buying and saving intentions is not stable. During moderate inflation phases inflation expectations are related to lower buying and lower saving intentions, during inflation peaks this relationship reverses to the opposite and during transition phases from moderate to high inflation or vice versa, no significant relationships can be found. Theoretically, the present research indicates that high frequency data is needed to estimate how inflation expectations and consumer intentions are related. Practically, the present research can be used to better time and frame inflation communication and mitigation policies. |
| Keywords: | inflation perceptions, consumer climate, consumer confidence, behavioral economics, consumption behavior |
| JEL: | E31 E39 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoh:report:report-002 |
| By: | Théo Konc; Jan Christoph Steckel; Jacob Edenhofer; Jens Ewald; Thomas Sterner |
| Abstract: | We study the political consequences of Germany's 2022–2023 electricity price increases using four waves of original panel data. Identification exploits the German billing system, under which suppliers raise monthly instalment payments at dates plausibly exogenous to household characteristics. In a staggered difference-in-differences design with later-treated households as controls, those facing an above-median increase become 7.5 percentage points more likely to support the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The shift persists, and attitudes, including support for climate policy, adjust only afterwards. This response emerges even though no climate policy caused the shock, households could not anticipate it, parties at both political extremes opposed the underlying sanctions, and compensation was generous. We interpret our reduced-form results in a spatial voting framework in which the loss raises the value of a party's promise of lower future energy costs. Our results imply that the standard welfare-economic separation of efficiency from distribution can carry a political cost even when compensation is generous and non-distortionary. |
| Keywords: | political backlash, energy price increase, right wing populism, panel data |
| JEL: | C23 D30 D63 D72 H23 H50 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12887 |
| By: | Spanò, Guido; Figueres, Juan Manuel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy in the euro area by focusing on the role of banks’ funding structures. We estimate the interest rate pass-through for loans to non-financial corporations using bank-level balance sheet data. In doing so, we interact the response of lending rates with characteristics of the funding structure, and show that banks that rely more on bond issuance than on the money market tend to be less responsive to policy changes. Finally, we test the presence of the asset-liability-management channel, and find that banks combining longer-term liabilities (higher bond shares) with longer rate fixation periods for loans (higher share of loans with fixed rates) exhibit the most muted lending rate response to policy shocks. JEL Classification: C23, E44, E52, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank lending channel, banks’ funding structures, monetary policy pass-through |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263274 |
| By: | Krumbe, Falk; Feuerbacher, Arndt |
| Abstract: | Promoting organic agriculture is a key policy of the Farm to Fork Strategy as well as the national agricultural strategy of Germany. In this study we provide a detailed analysis of the organic and conventional markets in Germany. Using a unique dataset we analyze the role of organic agriculture not only in production, but also in consumption, trade and its relation to other industries. A policy experiment is conducted using a CGE model to analyze the effects of a VAT reform for organic products. We model the removal of all VAT on organic products. We show that such a reform would lead to a substantial increase in organic production and consumption. The increased demand for organic produce is primarily met by domestic production. In terms of household groups, medium income households benefit the most in absolute terms, while upper medium and high income households benefit the most in per capita terms. The reform is nevertheless not substantial enough to reach the ambitious goals of the European Union of turning 25% of agricultural land organic by 2030. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404375 |
| By: | Anja Bauer (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Rolf Bürkl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen); Katharina Gangl (Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen) |
| Abstract: | The current research report examines the motivational reasons for the high saving intentions in late 2025, a time of multiple crises. Inflation attitudes and pessimism are discussed in the literature and in public as two possible causes of high saving intentions. However, empirical evidence is scarce. In the present study, we exam-ine attitudes towards inflation and pessimism based on online surveys conducted in Germany (N = 3, 032) and the United States (N = 3, 006). These two countries differ sharply in both the extent and quality of saving. The results show that in both countries, existing savings are an important factor, such that individuals with existing savings report higher saving intentions than those without. In Germany, in addition, existing savings drive sav-ing intentions based on individuals’ motive to protect their wealth from inflation. Other motives to save include saving for retirement (Germany) and the perception that policies to fight inflation are unfair (U.S.). Thus, in both countries, inflation-related attitudes are more important for saving than pessimism. We end this research report with a discussion of policy measures that might support citizens in realizing their saving intentions not only via saving in a bank account but also via investments, which potentially yield higher personal profits. |
| Keywords: | saving intentions, savings, wealth, inflation attitudes, consumer climate, consumer confidence, behavioral economics, consumption behavior |
| JEL: | E31 E39 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoh:report:report-003 |
| By: | Ramji, Aditya PhD; Fulton, Lewis PhD; Cazzola, Pierpaolo |
| Abstract: | A rapid transition to a near-zero-emission transportation system in California and Europe will require rapid uptake of transportation technologies, changes in transportation services, and investments in associated infrastructure. These in turn require policy innovations. This report compares California and EU policies across three broad areas: 1) greenhouse gas (GHG) targets for 2030 to 2050; 2) progress on reducing GHG emissions from different transportation modes; and 3) current strategies and policies to achieve targets. Differences by region and across major modes are identified. Strategies cover electrification, uptake of hydrogen, aviation and shipping fuels, and modal shifts. Policies include regulatory requirements (fuel economy and CO2 standards, fuel standards); incentive programs, including taxation, feebates, and others; direct investment programs; equity considerations and environmental justice-related initiatives. In both geographies, a range of impactful policies are in place. However, these fall short of guaranteeing that targets will be met, and more actions will likely be needed. Some possibilities are presented, with a particular focus on pricing strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Decarbonization, Zero emission vehicles, Greenhouse gases, Sustainable transportation, Alternate fuels, Policy analysis, Regulation |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6d08m3s5 |
| By: | Ahlvik, Lassi; van Kooten, Sebastiaan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the costs and distributional impacts of the Natura 2000 network. We estimate how land use restrictions are capitalized into property prices in Finland by combining data on land transactions with the roll-out of the protection network. Our results indicate a sizable negative effect on forest and agricultural land and a moderate negative effect on unbuilt lots inside conservation areas. The negative effects are more pronounced in socio-economically deprived areas. In contrast, we find a positive effect on built properties both inside and in near vicinity of the protected areas. The net economic costs of Natura 2000 were moderate, but it had a clear distributional impact, reallocating rents from landowners to house and cabin owners. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; Environmental policy; Distributional effects; Environmental justice |
| JEL: | R14 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19400 |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente |
| Abstract: | Building on the analysis initiated in a previous study, the Working Paper describes and assesses the new elements of the Government’s proposal to reform the SFA contained in the draft agreement sent to the Autonomous Communities several weeks ago. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Public spending, Taxes, Budget, Spain, Macroeconomic Analysis, Regional Analysis Spain, Public Finance, Working Paper |
| JEL: | H71 H77 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2613 |
| By: | Glogowsky, Ulrich; Hansen, Emanuel; Sachs, Dominik; Lüthen, Holger |
| Abstract: | Using German administrative data from the 1960s onward, this paper (i) examines the long-term evolution of child-related gender inequality in earnings and (ii) assesses the impact of family policies on this inequality. We present three sets of ï¬ ndings. First, child penalties (i.e., the percentage of potential earnings lost due to children) have strongly increased over the last decades. Mothers who had their ï¬ rst child in the 1960s faced much smaller penalties than those who gave birth in the 2000s. Second, we decompose overall gender inequality into childrelated and child-unrelated components. Over our sample period, the fraction of overall inequality attributed to children rose from 14% to 64%. This trend not only resulted from the growing child penalties but also from rising potential earnings of mothers. Intuitively, in later decades, mothers had more income to lose from child-related career breaks. Third, we investigate the role of policy decisions in this rise in child penalties. Parental leave expansions between 1979 and 1992 ampliï¬ ed child penalties and contributed nearly one-third to the increase in child-related gender inequality. Instead, a parental beneï¬ t reform in 2007 mitigated further increases. While the third set of results highlights the role of family policies, the ï¬ rst two imply that sidelining mothers becomes increasingly costly over time. |
| JEL: | H31 H42 J08 J13 J16 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19547 |
| By: | Dolado, Juan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Puch, Luis (Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Wellschmied, Felix (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Using Social Security (SocS) records covering the universe of Spanish employees and firms, we compare firms' employment dynamics between 2013-2024 to those obtained from the Bank of Spain's microdata drawn from firms' balance sheets (CBI) as well as those of U.S. firms. Compared with CBI, SocS reveals less volatile aggregate employment growth and higher job reallocation rates driven by firms' large employment adjustments. Worker reallocation in Spain remains below U.S. levels and did not decline after the 2022 labor reform. SocS also highlights the central role of small firms in Spanish job creation and documents a left-shifted firm-size distribution relative to the U.S. Start-ups entering smaller, having lower survival probabilities, and weaker employment growth among survivors all contribute to a smaller Spanish firm size. |
| Keywords: | job flows, worker flows, firm dynamics |
| JEL: | J21 J40 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18755 |
| By: | Toomas Kotkas (UH - University of Helsinki); Philippe Martin (COMPTRASEC - Centre de droit comparé du travail et de la sécurité sociale - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hitomi Nagano (Sophia University [Tokyo]); Marta Navas-Parejo Alonso (UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid = University of Carlos III of Madrid) |
| Abstract: | It is not uncommon that a country's social welfare system includes separate long-term care schemes for the elderly and for the disabled persons. Often, the separation is based on an age criterion, i.e. if disability is only acquired after certain age, the person is not eligible for special long-term care services for the disabled. However, age-related criteria are problematic on the basis of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. The exclusion of a person from special services simply based on their age violates the principle of non-discrimination. At the same time, as the proportion of elderly population in many countries has risen drastically, it is not necessarily financially realistic to assume that the elderly should have the equal right to special disability services which are often free-of-charge or with lower co-payments. This article analyses the policies in five countries whose aim is to solve the discrepancy between the non-discrimination principle and financial sustainability on long-term care schemes. It is argued that despite the different policy choices aimed at tackling the problem of economic sustainability of long-term care schemes, almost all countries are nevertheless still forced to resort to some kind of age criteria. |
| Keywords: | social welfare funding, non-discrimination principle, disabled persons, elderly, Long-term care |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05701847 |
| By: | Brazzola, Nicoletta |
| Abstract: | The war in Iran has led to kerosene prices roughly doubling and forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. Some voices from the industry have used the crisis to call for climate policies to be relaxed. However, this misreads what the crisis actually demonstrates: Costs are being driven not by too much climate policy, but by dependence on fossil energy itself. In 2026/27 the European Union (EU) will decide whether to end the "stop the clock" exemption that has shielded international flights from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2013 and extend the ETS to all departures from the European Economic Area, or whether such flights will continue to be covered by international offsetting mechanisms. The decision will have implications well beyond aviation: for the EU's 2040 climate target, the demand for durable CO2 removal, and the credibility of European climate policy more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Off-setting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), EU aviation, Iran war, Climate Policy, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, SAF, EU Emis-sions Trading System, ETS, Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for Interna-tional Aviation, CORSIA, Article 6.4 credits, ReFuelEU, International Civil Aviati-on Organization, ICAO, carbon dioxide removal, CDR, direct air capture with carbon storage, DACCS |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342580 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; di Molfetta, Mauro; Nortarnicola, Valeria; Trotta, Maria Giovanna; Magaletti, Nicola |
| Abstract: | Italy's special legal status for "innovative" small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) grants fiscal, financial and administrative benefits intended to strengthen competitiveness, yet whether the status marks a distinctive profile of realised firm performance remains empirically underexplored. Using ten years of balance-sheet data assembled within the LUCE (LUtech Campus Ecosystem) research project on 4, 043 firms (2, 873 innovative and 1, 170 ordinary), we compare the two populations across six performance dimensions—performance persistence, revenue growth, labour productivity, operating profitability, earnings volatility and financial stability. Because the populations differ systematically in size, sector and location, we use propensity-score matching (1, 031 balanced pairs) and interpret the resulting differential as a conditional innovative-status premium rather than as a causal effect. Innovative SMEs display a large and robust revenue-growth premium—a median growth rate roughly three-and-a-half times that of matched ordinary peers (+17.3 percentage points per year; rank-biserial 0.53)—coexisting with a fragility penalty of higher earnings volatility and lower financial stability; operating profitability is higher but does not survive our robustness battery, and labour productivity is marginally lower. A within-firm event study around the registration date shows that the growth advantage largely predates registration, indicating that the status certifies and renders visible already-dynamic firms rather than causally upgrading them. The premium is strongly and significantly heterogeneous across space—broadest in the South, where local institutions are weakest—consistent with an institutional-substitution boundary condition that a formal region-by-status interaction confirms. The results are robust to nine alternative estimators, multiple-testing correction and hidden-bias diagnostics. We read the innovative-firm register as an informative screening and monitoring device rather than as a policy whose causal returns we measure. |
| Date: | 2026–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h5d7r_v1 |
| By: | Muzi Chen; Difang Huang; Shouyang Wang; Xinghan Xia |
| Abstract: | Firms covered by emissions trading systems need forecasts not only to value allowances, but also to decide when to buy them. This paper asks whether European Union Allowance (EUA) prices contain short-horizon predictability that survives a forecast-origin information design and improves simulated compliance procurement. Using daily data from 2019 to 2025, we produce direct forecasts for one to five trading days ahead. All predictors are observable at the forecast origin, and calibration and model-selection rules are fixed before the final holdout. The released forecast has the lowest point-estimate RMSE at every horizon among fourteen benchmarks, with the strongest loss-difference evidence at horizons three and four. Relative to a random walk, out-of-sample R^2 rises from 1.2% at one day to 15.5% at five days. We then use the forecast path in a constrained procurement problem with execution costs, market impact, capacity limits, and tail risk; sensitivity exercises add demand uncertainty. For a fixed 100, 000-EUA order, optimized schedules lower average realized costs by 8.5 to 38.5 basis points relative to uniform execution across horizons h=2 to h=5. The gains come from reallocating purchases within a fixed window, not from reliable next-day directional timing. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.23426 |
| By: | Attila Lindner (University College London; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; IFS; IZA); Balázs Reizer (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Corvinus University of Budapest); Andrea Weber (CEU; CEPR; RFBerlin) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how a large-scale outflow of workers affect the reaming workforce. We use Hungarian administrative social security data on the opening of the Austrian labor market to Hungarian workers as a natural experiment. We find that the opening of the Austrian border increased wages by 1 percent and decreased employment by 5 percent in the close neighborhood of the Hungarian side of the border. We also show that the outflow of workers slightly decreased the quality of the remaining workforce in Hungary. Furthermore, we show that Austrian labor demand shocks have a positive impact on Hungarian wages as the increase of vacancies in Austria increases the wages on the Hungarian side of the border. |
| Keywords: | Labor demand, migration |
| JEL: | J23 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2514 |
| By: | Márta Bisztray (HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)); Helena Schweiger (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses rich firm-level data from Hungary to present some stylized facts on services trade. We show that (i) services exporters are even more rare than goods exporters; (ii) services exports are highly concentrated; (iii) services exporters are more likely than goods exporters to be located in cities; (iv) services exports tend to be preceded by services imports; (v) manufacturing firms also export services with services exports following goods exports in terms of timing and destinations; and (vi) services exporters have comparable premia to goods exporters. |
| Keywords: | trade in services, services exporters, servicification, Hungary |
| JEL: | F14 L80 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2421 |
| By: | Tiedemann, Jurek; Arndt, Franziska; Pöttker, Katja |
| Abstract: | Der demografische Wandel verändert die Personalplanung in kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen (KMU). Die KOFA-Studie "Wertvolle Erfahrung sichern: Ältere Beschäftigte im Unternehmen halten" zeigt, in welchen Berufen besonders viele Beschäftigte vor dem Renteneintritt stehen. Für KMU geht es dabei nicht nur um Nachbesetzung, sondern auch um Wissen, Erfahrung und betriebliche Kontinuität. Die Studienergebnisse helfen, Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und Personalmaßnahmen gezielter auszurichten. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkofa:342533 |
| By: | Eva Davoine (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California); Joseph Enguehard (CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna [Bologne], Departement des sciences statistiques "Paolo Fortunati" - UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna [Bologne], ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Victor Gay (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Igor Kolesnikov (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California) |
| Abstract: | The gabelle salt tax system was a cornerstone of the fiscal apparatus of the early modern French state. This article introduces a novel historical geographic information system (GIS) of this institution's spatial organization as of the seventeenth century, drawing on an original 1665 manuscript map collection: Sanson's Atlas des gabelles. Beyond presenting the dataset and documenting its construction methodology, we provide a detailed account of the functioning of the gabelle, situate the French case in comparative perspective, and illustrate how the availability of this fine-grained dataset expands the possibilities of empirical research in economic history, historical demography, and historical political economy of early modern France. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Gabelle, Administrative boundary, France, Historical geographic information systems, Ancien régime |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05501504 |
| By: | Barba, Francesca R.; Drichoutis, Andreas; Palma, Marco A.; Cerroni, Simone |
| Abstract: | Risk preferences play a central role in farmers’ decisions, such as technology adoption, diversification, and uptake of insurance and other risk-management tools; yet agricultural economics has largely focused on risk aversion, while higher-order risk preferences remain less explored. This paper studies the external validity of experimentally elicited risk aversion, prudence, and temperance in a sample of 162 Italian winegrowers. Preferences are measured through incentivized binary lottery choices and linked to stated intentions, self-reported risk-management behavior, and an observed preventive-technology adoption. Preliminary results show that all three attitudes are present in the sample and capture distinct behavioral dimensions. Risk aversion has no systematic association with external outcomes. Prudence is positively related to stated intentions, but not to observed behavior. Temperance is associated with current insurance status and with the absence of active defense practice adoption. Overall, higher-order risk preferences show limited, outcome-specific external validity for agricultural risk-management behavior. |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404409 |
| By: | Ina Meyer; Mark Sommer (WIFO); André Baumgart (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Nina Eisenmenger (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Doris Virág (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Kurt Kratena (Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research); Willi Haas (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology) |
| Abstract: | Growth in resource use is a key driver of climate change and environmental degradation. In recognition of this, a few governments have set targets to reduce their countries' per capita resource use while striving to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. In this context, the concept of the circular economy (CE) has attracted mounting interest as a means of mitigating climate change, reducing resource use and waste generation, while advancing economic performance. This paper uses a mass-balanced biophysical model (CeAT) linked to a macroeconomic model (DYNK) of the Austrian economy to analyse different stock-flow scenarios, combining a decarbonization scheme with CE strategies at varying levels of ambition. The analysis examines Austria's buildings, transport, and electricity sectors, evaluating economic impacts by employment, GDP, and disposable income results. The framework incorporates two stylized indirect rebounds effects arising from CE strategies of narrowing, i.e. reduced growth in infrastructure, buildings or car fleets. These rebound effects, driven by the reallocation of financial resources, manifest through two distinct consumption pathways: service-oriented and goods-oriented expenditure patterns. Findings indicate, the strong CE scenario can achieve substantial dematerialization. At the same time, it shows potentially the highest average growth rates in disposable income when combined with a service-oriented rebound. First order CE strategies (refuse, rethink, reduce) are therefore of key importance for the triple agenda of climate mitigation, resource use reductions and economic growth. Particularly, demand-side reductions can enhance economic performance if the rebound effects are constrained by reallocating the freed-up expenditure to low-material-intensity services. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization, Scenario analysis, Indirect rebound effect, Resource consumption, Economic impact analysis, Circular economy |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:732 |
| By: | Andrea Fracasso; Stefano Schiavo |
| Abstract: | Growing geopolitical tensions have renewed interest in trade-related vulnerabilities as a component of economic security. However, the lack of a well-defined conceptual framework around the concept of economic security implies the co-existence of different definitions, shifting boundaries and fuzzy policy prescriptions. Recent empirical work has developed product-level indicators of external dependence, typically combining information on import concentration, global supply concentration, and domestic substitutability. These methodologies are generally designed either for sovereign States or for the European Union treated as a single integrated area. This paper argues that they cannot be directly replicated to assess vulnerabilities at the level of individual EU Member States. The paper's methodological contribution shows that the EU's quasi-federal nature creates specific conceptual and measurement problems for Member State assessments, especially concerning the treatment of intra-EU sourcing in the construction of concentration and substitutability indicators. These choices affect the internal coherence of vulnerability metrics and reflect prior judgments about whether the relevant threat is economic coercion, broader supply disruption, or both. An empirical section applies one of the existing methodologies to highly disaggregated trade data to illustrate the impact of alternative treatments of intra-EU trade and compare different results. |
| Keywords: | conomic security, trade dependence, supply-chain risk, EU, coercion |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12878 |
| By: | Marek Giergiczny (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Jette Bredahl (University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics); Klaus Glenk (SRUC, Department of Rural Economy, Environment and Society); Jürgen Meyerhoff (Technische Universität Berlin, Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning); Jens Abildtrup (Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, BETA); Fitalew Agimass Taye (Griffith University, Griffith Business School); Wiktor Budziński (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Mikołaj Czajkowski (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Borys Draus (Bureau for Forest Management and Geodesy); Michela Faccioli (University of Trento, School of International Studies and Department of Economics and Management); Tomasz Gajderowicz (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Michael Getzner (TU Wien, Institute of Spatial Planning); Tom X. Hackbarth (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Piotr Janiec (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Thomas Lundhede (University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics); Marius Mayer (Munich University of Applied Sciences, Department of Tourism); Alistair McVittie (SRUC, Department of Rural Economy, Environment and Society); Rachel Oh (National University of Singapore, Department of Geography); Roland Olschewski (WSL Swiss Federal Research Institute, Economics and Social Sciences); Henrique M. Pereira (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig); Martin Quaas (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Leipzig University); Jarosław Socha (University of Agriculture in Krakow); Niels Strange (University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics); Milan Ščasný (Charles University, Environment Centre; Charles University, Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences); Sviataslau Valasiuk (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Adam Wasiak (Regional Directorate of State Forests in Radom); Néstor Fernández (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig) |
| Abstract: | Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecological resilience, yet they are often assumed to conflict with societal preferences, potentially limiting public support for conservation and restoration. We examined whether forest characteristics associated with biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation are consistently valued by society across Europe. We combined a visual discrete choice experiment involving 11, 622 respondents from twelve European countries with a travel cost model to evaluate whether stated societal preferences were reflected in observed recreational behaviour. We then integrated harmonized preference estimates with continental forest inventory and remote-sensing data to map the spatial distribution of societal values associated with forest ecosystem condition. Across all countries, respondents consistently preferred forests characterized by taller canopies, greater tree-species richness, heterogeneous age structures, and more deadwood. These preferences closely aligned with observed visitation behaviour despite substantial differences in geography, accessibility, and recreational traditions. Spatial analyses further showed that forests with greater structural complexity consistently exhibited higher societal value. Our findings demonstrate that biodiversity-oriented forest management and societal values largely converge across Europe, suggesting that many interventions promoting ecological resilience can simultaneously strengthen public support for forest conservation and restoration, providing a stronger foundation for adaptive, multifunctional forest governance under global environmental change. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity conservation, forest management, structural complexity, forest recreation, ecosystem services, discrete choice experiment, travel cost method |
| JEL: | Q57 Q23 Q26 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-25 |
| By: | Schmitz, Hendrik |
| Abstract: | Die Pflegeversicherung steht vor enormen Finanzierungsherausforderungen. Der Beitragssatz könnte bis 2050 von heute 3, 6 % (4, 2 % für Kinderlose) auf über 7 % steigen. Gleichzeitig fehlen bis 2040 bis zu 370.000 stationäre Pflegeplätze und 330.000 Vollzeitkräfte. Ab 2040 erreichen die geburtenstarken Jahrgänge ein hohes Alter - dann wird die demografische Belastung der Pflegeversicherung dramatisch ansteigen. Zentrale Maßnahmen dagegen: Pflegebeitragssätze einfrieren und durch eine Kapitaldeckung ergänzen, umfangreiche Vorschriften für Pflegeheime lockern und Digitalisierung vorantreiben, Pflegekräfte entlasten und verstärkt Assistenzsysteme einsetzen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:343001 |
| By: | Del Boca, Daniela; Pronzato, Chiara |
| Abstract: | The increase in poverty rates among families and individuals in Italy over the past two decades can be attributed largely to repeated periods of economic crisis. Growing concern over the problem has driven interest in the role of policy in supporting household welfare. Responding to the currently limited access to (or provision of) public aid and assistance, private institutions and philanthropic foundations have stepped up their efforts to create new initiatives for alleviating poverty. In this paper, we use a randomized control trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of a new Italian program aimed at supporting vulnerable individuals in four separate but related areas of household welfare: employment, financial circumstances, family responsibilities, and housing conditions. The program, known as Integro, was introduced by the Compagnia di San Paolo, one of Italy’s largest philanthropic institutions. Our findings indicate a positive and statistically significant impact of Integro on three of the four target outcomes considered, with only the fourth (housing conditions) not being affected. We also sought to identify any initial conditions potentially influencing the extent to which participants benefit from the program. Is Integro equally effective for everyone? According to our data, the program provides the best outcomes for males reporting lower human capital and greater socio-emotional stability. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Employment; Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J68 J24 I31 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19476 |
| By: | Alessandrini, Fabio; Jondeau, Eric; Vallée, Lou-Salomé |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of various portfolio construction techniques in the context of decarbonization and the pursuit of net-zero objectives aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Specifically, we examine different strategies that qualify as Article 9 funds under EU regulations, focusing on carbon emissions reduction objectives, such as screening and tracking error minimization techniques. Our findings indicate that all approaches would have achieved the targeted emissions reductions over the 10-year period (2012-2021) analyzed. However, the method of decarbonization significantly affects ex-post tracking errors, with the more ambitious Paris-Aligned Benchmark requiring a substantial departure from the business-as-usual benchmark. Additionally, the tracking error minimization approach involves considerable reallocation of individual securities, potentially leading to, possibly undesirable, idiosyncratic exposures. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Net-zero investment; Portfolio carbon footprint |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19421 |
| By: | Hellbom Almström, Axel; Ellegård, Lina Maria; Enache, Andreea; Strömberg, Klara |
| Abstract: | The literature on ownership in healthcare lacks evidence from the primary care sector, where the traditional small-scale business model is increasingly complemented by larger practices owned by corporations or the government. We explore the role of ownership in primary care in relation to a core theme in health economics -- the balance between fee-for-service and capitation remuneration. We study heterogeneous responses to a Swedish policy reform reducing the fee for GP visits and increasing the capitation share in a mixed payment system. In this study context, publicly owned practices, for-profit practices owned by physicians, and practices belonging to chains owned by non-physician investors contract on the same terms. Our difference-in-difference estimates reveal heterogeneity consistent with the notion that profit motives are stronger in externally owned practices: While the number of GP visits generally fell after the reform, the reduction was more marked for practices belonging to chains. The reduction did not benefit remaining patients, as indicated by patient experience measures. The strengthened incentive to expand the list of registered patients did not have heterogeneous effects. Our results suggest that the design of financial incentives ought to consider that the provider objectives depends on the ownership structure. |
| JEL: | D23 D86 G32 H75 I11 I18 J33 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19375 |
| By: | Qu, Chunzi (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Bjørndal, Mette (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | District heating (DH) is important for Nordic decarbonization and power-heat coordination, but its development differs markedly across the region, with Norway showing much lower DH penetration than Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. The analysis combines institutional comparison, a review of empirical pricing and modeling studies, and two stylized numerical case studies, to identify transferable lessons and suitable analytical tools for Norwegian policy reform aimed at supporting DH expansion. The results show that the main weakness of Norway’s current electricity-indexed maximum-price rule lies not merely in the level of the cap, but in the instability of the benchmark and its weak alignment with the underlying cost structure and system value of DH. Greater electricity-price volatility can further amplify the mismatch between the electricity-linked cap and DH cost recovery, increasing downside revenue risk for DH companies. The representative-customer comparison shows that the current Norwegian regime exposes customers more directly to the market-linked price variation, while also making the tariff relatively more favorable for low-utilization customers, thereby increasing cost-recovery risks for DH companies. The Norwegian policy-counterfactual analysis shows that if Norway wishes to retain a maximum-price rule while revising its cap-setting method, using the cost of alternative heating technologies as a hard cap may be insufficient to ensure cost recovery under the Oslo calibration, whereas a Danish cost-recovery benchmark provides a more robust basis for long-run DH viability. Finally, the modeling review highlights the need for integrated, multi-model evaluation strategies to support evidence-based DH regulatory reform in Norway and other highly electrified energy systems. |
| Keywords: | District heating; Price regulation; Tariff design; Power-heat coordination; Energy system modeling; Nordic countries |
| JEL: | Q20 Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_009 |
| By: | Julia Ko\'nczal; Rafa{\l} Po{\l}ocza\'nski |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) listed on European exchanges provide a regulated environment for studying intraday market anomalies. We study four Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs traded on Xetra and Nasdaq Stockholm over the period January 2024 - December 2025 using one-minute bars. As a benchmark, we adopt an extreme value theory approach in which anomalous bars are defined as returns falling below a threshold estimated by fitting a generalised Pareto distribution to left-tail exceedances. We then propose three new binary anomaly indicators. The first, a cross-venue divergence anomaly, identifies venue-specific price divergence between the two exchanges. The second is a no-recovery anomaly that identifies extreme price drops followed by little or no recovery over the next ten active bars. The third is a momentum-reversal anomaly that identifies extreme price drops following positive short-term momentum. Although each anomaly type represents fewer than 1% of one-minute bars, statistical analysis using Mann-Whitney U tests shows that anomaly observations exhibit significantly higher effective spreads, higher values of liquidity-related ratios, and more pronounced order-flow imbalances than non-anomalous bars. Furthermore, employing an out-of-sample prediction methodology with four classifiers - random forest, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine - shows that all four anomaly types are predictable one bar ahead, with AUC-ROC values of up to 0.82. Permutation importance indicates that short-term volatility and drawdown measures are generally more useful for prediction than microstructure variables. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.09576 |
| By: | Sondermann, David; Petrakis, Corinne |
| Abstract: | We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity. Men’s participation declines significantly while women’s remains stable, reflecting sectoral segregation and the added worker effect. Young workers exhibit the most persistent responses, with effects lasting up to eight years, consistent with hysteresis through human capital erosion. Less-educated and non-native workers bear disproportionate employment costs. The findings imply that aggregate slack measures may miss important distributional dimensions relevant for monetary, fiscal, and structural policy. JEL Classification: J21, E24, E32, R23 |
| Keywords: | Bartik instrument, demographic heterogeneity, labour force participation rate, local projections |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263275 |
| By: | Pieper, Jonas |
| Abstract: | Im laufenden Gesetzgebungsverfahren zum GKV-Beitragssatzstabilisierungsgesetz werden neben Maßnahmen auf der Ausgabenseite auch zusätzliche Einnahmen diskutiert. Hierzu zählt insbesondere die vorgesehene außerordentliche Anhebung der Beitragsbemessungsgrenze (BBG). Die vorliegende WIP-Analyse untersucht erstmals die Belastungswirkungen einer Erhöhung der BBG auf Ebene von 254 Landkreisen und kreisfreien Städten. Es zeigt sich deutlich, dass die Belastungen für Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer ungleichmäßig über Deutschland verteilt wären. Die Analyse bestätigt einen engen Zusammenhang zwischen der regionalen Belastung und dem Anteil höher qualifizierter Beschäftigter. Regionen mit einer hohen Fachkräfte-, Spezialisten- und Expertendichte tragen die größten zusätzlichen Lasten. Eine Anhebung der BBG trifft damit insbesondere jene Wirtschaftsstandorte, die in besonderem Maße zu Wertschöpfung, Innovation und Steueraufkommen beitragen. Besonders betroffen sind technologie-, industrie- und wissensintensive Wirtschaftsstandorte. Zu den Regionen mit den höchsten Belastungen zählen unter anderem Stuttgart, Heidelberg, Erlangen, München, Frankfurt am Main und Bonn. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen, dass eine Anhebung der BBG nicht nur eine Frage zusätzlicher Einnahmen ist. Sie verändert zugleich die Belastungsverteilung zwischen Regionen, Beschäftigtengruppen und Unternehmen. Maßnahmen zur Stabilisierung der Finanzen von GKV und SPV sollten daher nicht allein anhand ihrer kurzfristigen Finanzierungswirkungen bewertet werden. Ebenso relevant sind ihre regionalen Verteilungswirkungen sowie mögliche negative Folgen für Beschäftigung, Investitionen und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Dies gilt insbesondere in einer Phase, in der Deutschland nach Wegen sucht, die anhaltende Wachstumsschwäche zu überwinden. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipana:342508 |
| By: | Voigtländer, Michael; Deschermeier, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Die Berliner Pläne zur Vergesellschaftung privater Wohnungsunternehmen nach Artikel 15 des Grundgesetzes (GG) sind weit mehr als ein lokalpolitisches Experiment. Sie sind ein Eingriff mit nationaler Sprengkraft, dessen Kosten den gesamten Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland treffen würden - entlang von fünf klar identifizierbaren Wirkungskanälen. International wird nicht zwischen Berlin und Deutschland differenziert. Als Bundeshauptstadt steht Berlin im Fokus der globalen Investorenwahrnehmung. Ein Vergesellschaftungsgesetz nach Artikel 15 GG schafft mit einer Kompensation unterhalb des Marktpreises einen bundesweiten Präzedenzfall und sendet ein unmissverständliches Signal an die Weltmärkte: Eigentumsrechte sind in Deutschland politisch disponibel. Diplomatische Verwerfungen, internationale Schiedsverfahren und eine dauerhafte "Enteignungsprämie" auf deutsche Investitionen wären die unvermeidlichen Folgen. Die Vergesellschaftung trifft nicht nur die Immobilienwirtschaft, sondern die gesamte Infrastruktur. Artikel 15 GG erfasst explizit Grund und Boden, Naturschätze und Produktionsmittel - und damit das Rückgrat des deutschen Wirtschaftsstandorts: Energiewirtschaft, Telekommunikation, Schlüsselindustrien und digitale Infrastruktur. Ausländische Investoren haben allein in der deutschen Energieversorgung rund 59 Milliarden Euro und in der Telekommunikation weitere 32 Milliarden Euro gebunden. Ein Berliner Präzedenzfall würde genau das Kapital abschrecken, das Deutschland für die Finanzierung der Energiewende und die Modernisierung seiner Infrastruktur dringend benötigt. Banken müssen mit erheblichen Finanzierungseinschränkungen reagieren. Die historische Erfahrung - insbesondere das Frankreich-Beispiel unter Präsident Mitterrand, wo die Risikoaufschläge auf Staatsanleihen nach den Verstaatlichungen 1981/82 auf bis zu 2, 5 Prozentpunkte anstiegen - belegt, dass Eingriffe in Eigentumsrechte unmittelbar auf die Kapitalmärkte durchschlagen. Die Folge sind höhere Finanzierungszinsen aufgrund steigender Risikoprämien, geringere Marktwerte und geringere Beleihungsausläufe, sodass zahlreiche Investitionen nicht mehr realisierbar wären. Bund und Länder würden in die Berliner Haushaltsprobleme hineingezogen. Die Entschädigungskosten von 29 bis 39 Milliarden Euro würden den Berliner Schuldenstand schlagartig in die Höhe treiben. Gleichzeitig würden Gewerbesteuereinnahmen massiv einbrechen. Da Finanzmärkte eine implizite Bundesgarantie für Länderanleihen einpreisen, würde eine drohende Berliner Zahlungsunfähigkeit die Refinanzierungskosten für alle Bundesländer - und in der Folge auch für den Bund - spürbar ansteigen lassen. Zerstörtes Vertrauen lässt sich nur schwer zurückgewinnen. Vertrauensschocks in Kapitalmärkten lösen persistente Verhaltensänderungen aus, die weit über das auslösende Ereignis hinaus anhalten. Eine Berliner Vergesellschaftung könnte den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland damit für ein Jahrzehnt belasten. Von der Umsetzung der Vergesellschaftung muss daher dringend abgeraten werden - zumal zur Erreichung der eigentlichen Ziele deutlich wirkungsvollere Instrumente zur Verfügung stehen. Das Kernproblem des Berliner Wohnungsmarktes liegt nicht in der Höhe der Bestandsmieten, sondern im fehlenden Angebot. Eine konsequente Baulandmobilisierung, der gezielte Kauf von Belegungsrechten, die Konzeptvergabe für sozialen Wohnungsbau sowie eine treffsichere Subjektförderung durch Wohngeld sind wirksamere und wirtschaftlich ungleich weniger schädliche Wege, um bezahlbares Wohnen in Berlin zu fördern - ohne das Vertrauen der Märkte in den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland zu verspielen. |
| Keywords: | Immobilien, Immobilienfinanzierung, Wohnungsmarkt |
| JEL: | R21 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:342538 |
| By: | Michael Böheim (WIFO); Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber (WIFO); Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Staatliche Förderprogramme für Energieeffizienz und Klimaschutz sollen Investitionen auslösen, die ohne Subvention nicht erfolgt wären. Ein zentrales Problem sind Mitnahmeeffekte, bei denen subventionierte Maßnahmen auch ohne Förderung umgesetzt worden wären. Da das unbeobachtete Referenzszenario nicht direkt messbar ist, können Mitnahmeeffekte nur indirekt geschätzt werden. Der Beitrag analysiert deren wirtschaftspolitische Bedeutung und fasst aktuelle empirische Befunde aus Deutschland, der Schweiz, Österreich und weiteren europäischen Ländern zusammen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Mitnahmeeffekte bei Umwelt- und Energieeffizienzförderungen regelmäßig auftreten und je nach Förderdesign, Zielgruppe und Methode deutlich variieren. Für breit angelegte Programme liegen sie häufig bei 40% bis 50%, während gezieltere Förderungen deutlich niedrigere Werte aufweisen. Zugleich wird deutlich, dass Mitnahmeeffekte nicht isoliert zu bewerten sind, da auch Vorzieh-, Ausweitungs- und Spill-over-Effekte die Nettowirkung beeinflussen. Mitnahmeeffekte sind kein Fall für Ex-post-Kontrolle und -Sanktion, sondern für Ex-ante-Zuschnitt und -Prüfarchitektur einer staatlichen Beihilfe. Auf dieser Basis werden fünf Gestaltungsansätze zur Reduktion von Mitnahmeeffekten diskutiert, darunter eine präzisere Zielgruppenausrichtung, strukturierte Additionalitätsprüfungen, angepasste Vertragsgestaltung ex ante sowie begleitendes Monitoring und Evaluierung ex post. Insgesamt plädiert der Beitrag für eine differenzierte Bewertung von Förderprogrammen, die neben Additionalität auch Transformationswirkung und Zielgenauigkeit berücksichtigt. |
| Keywords: | Mitnahmeeffekte, Additionalität, Umwelt- und Energieförderung, Förderpolitik und Programmdesign, kontrafaktische Wirkungsevaluierung, Zielgruppenausrichtung |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:731 |
| By: | Herzer, Philip; Flake, Regina; Risius, Paula; Arndt, Franziska; Küçükyavuz, Yasin |
| Abstract: | Die KOFA-Studie "Quereinstiege als Erfolgsmodell? Erfahrungen von Unternehmen" zeigt auf Grundlage einer repräsentativen Unternehmensbefragung, wie verbreitet sie bereits sind und welche Erfahrungen Betriebe damit machen. Für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) ist das besonders relevant, weil es für sie häufig besonders herausfordernd ist, ihre offenen Stellen zu besetzen. Der Artikel ordnet die wichtigsten Ergebnisse ein und zeigt, was sie für die Praxis bedeuten. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkofa:342475 |
| By: | Risius, Paula; Hornickel, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Künstliche Intelligenz gehört in jedem zweiten Unternehmen bereits zum Arbeitsalltag. In der Ausbildung vermitteln sogar drei von vier Ausbilderinnen und Ausbildern KI als Thema oder Methode teilweise intensiv. In beiden Bereichen gibt es große Unterschiede nach Branchen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:342591 |
| By: | José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Marialejandra Garay Aguirre |
| Abstract: | Este artículo analiza la evolución de la pobreza en España entre 2008 y 2025 utilizando los microdatos de la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ECV), con un foco particular en la dimensión familiar y generacional de la vulnerabilidad económica. El análisis documenta la persistencia de la pobreza monetaria y del riesgo de pobreza o exclusión social (AROPE), mostrando que la vulnerabilidad se concentra de forma especialmente intensa en los menores de edad, la población joven y los hogares con hijos. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2026-20 |
| By: | Schröter, Welf |
| Abstract: | Die Gestaltung neuer, komplexer algorithmischer Systeme droht zu scheitern, wenn sie allein mit dem Denken und den Werkzeugen der vergangenen Digitalisierungsphasen betrieben wird. Das Verständnis früherer Arbeitswelten und bisherige Leitmotive reichen nicht mehr aus. Neben den Rückblick aus der Vergangenheit auf die Gegenwart muss ein zweiter, entscheidender Blick treten: der vorausschauende Blick aus der Zukunft auf das Heute. Nicht die Frage "Was kann ein digitales Werkzeug?" ist zentral, sondern "Wie verändert sich ein algorithmisches System nach seiner Implementierung selbst - und was wird es künftig leisten können?" Die Gestaltung der sogenannten "künstlichen Intelligenz" wird nicht allein mit dem Handwerkszeug der bisherigen Digitalisierungsvorgänge gelingen. Algorithmische Steuerungs- und Entscheidungssysteme erfordern neue soziale Innovationen, die die bisherige Mitbestimmungspraxis nicht ersetzen, sondern sie von unten her erweitern, vertiefen und erneuern. Die Veröffentlichung stellt zur Debatte, wie Beschäftigtenvertretungen, Gewerkschaften und Betriebe diese neuen Wege beschreiten können - durch erweiterte Prozessbetrachtungen, dialogische Verfahren wie den "Moderierten Spezifikationsdialog" und neue Instrumente wie Mitbestimmungsplan und Checkliste. So entsteht eine zukunftsorientierte, lernfähige Mitbestimmungspraxis, die menschliche Erfahrung, technisches Wissen und soziale Verantwortung miteinander verbindet. |
| Keywords: | Mitbestimmung, Protis Bit, Forum soziale Technikgestaltung, Digitalisierung, künstliche Intelligenz |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imumbp:342556 |
| By: | Beznoska, Martin; Hentze, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Die geplante Reform der Einkommensteuer entlastet zwar gezielt kleine und mittlere Einkommen, bleibt insgesamt aber deutlich hinter einer echten Tarifreform zurück. Vor allem der unvollständige Ausgleich der kalten Progression führt im Jahr 2028 zu realen Steuererhöhungen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:342589 |
| By: | Wang, Wei; Cai, Yongyang |
| Abstract: | Trade policies are becoming increasingly persistent and play an important role in shaping global production, trade, and emissions patterns. Because such policies affect economic agents’ expectations about future market conditions, their impacts may extend beyond contemporaneous trade reallocation through capital accumulation and climate–economy feedback. This paper develops a forward-looking integrated assessment framework that incorporates sector-level bilateral trade to evaluate the dynamic effects of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The results show that endogenous capital accumulation substantially amplifies the effects of trade policies on welfare, emissions, and employment. U.S. tariffs primarily redistribute welfare toward the United States while having little effect on global emissions. In contrast, CBAM generates larger emissions reductions but concentrates both welfare losses and emissions-reduction burdens in developing and transition economies. We also find significant dynamic employment adjustments, with substantial differences between short-run and long-run responses across regions and sectors. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404469 |
| By: | Lünich, Marco; Keller, Birte; Kruse, Florian; Marcinkowski, Frank |
| Abstract: | Der Kurzbericht präsentiert zentrale Ergebnisse einer Conjoint-Studie des Projekts Meinungsmonitor Künstliche Intelligenz 3.0, die im Mai 2026 durchgeführt wurde. Analysiert werden Präferenzen von rund 2.800 abhängig Beschäftigten in Deutschland für unterschiedliche Gestaltungsformen von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) am Arbeitsplatz. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für die Bewertung von KI-Systemen nicht allein ihre technische Leistungsfähigkeit entscheidend ist. Am stärksten prägt die Autonomie bei der KI-Nutzung die Präferenzentscheidung: Beschäftigte bevorzugen Systeme, die sie nach eigenem Ermessen nutzen können, während eine verpflichtende Nutzung deutlich abgelehnt wird. Ebenfalls bedeutsam sind die Auswirkungen auf den Arbeitsumfang und der Weiterbildungsbedarf. Präferiert werden KI-Systeme, die Arbeit entlasten oder zumindest keine zusätzliche Arbeitsbelastung erzeugen und mit einer praxisnahen, zeitlich überschaubaren Qualifizierung verbunden sind. Die Qualität der KI-Ergebnisse, die Überwachung der KI-Nutzung und mögliche Auswirkungen auf soziale Kontakte beeinflussen die Auswahlentscheidung ebenfalls, sind im direkten Vergleich jedoch weniger ausschlaggebend. Insgesamt verdeutlichen die Befunde, dass die Einführung von KI am Arbeitsplatz nicht nur eine technische, sondern auch eine arbeits- und organisationspolitische Gestaltungsaufgabe ist. |
| Date: | 2026–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y3fx5_v1 |
| By: | Schüler, Ruth M.; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Von allen Babyboomern, die bereits ihre jeweilige gesetzliche Regelaltersgrenze erreicht haben, ist mehr als jeder zweite Altersrentner vorzeitig in Rente gegangen. Diese Frührenten untergraben das ursprüngliche Ziel der Politik, durch die Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze die Lebensarbeitszeit zu erhöhen. Folgerichtig schlägt die Alterssicherungskommission vor, Frührenten einzuschränken. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:342590 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | A comienzos del pasado mes de enero el Gobierno presentó su propuesta de reforma del Sistema de Financiación Autonómico. Tras una larga pausa para dejar pasar la reciente tanda de elecciones autonómicas, el Gobierno ha retomado el proceso con la idea de aprobar lo antes posible su propuesta en el CPFF, aún con la oposición de la inmensa mayoría de las comunidades autónomas, para aplicarlo ya en 2027. Con este fin, el pasado mes de julio remitió a los gobiernos regionales un borrador de acuerdo, acompañado de una invitación a negociar bilateralmente posibles ajustes que, de entrada, ha sido rechazada por la gran mayoría de las comunidades, incluyendo varias con gobiernos socialistas. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2026-19 |
| By: | Clemens Kroneberg (University of Cologne); Maximilian Pickartz (University of Cologne); Alexandra Heyden (University of Cologne); Amelie Reiner (University of Cologne) |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:071 |
| By: | Franco, Sofia; Koster, Hans |
| Abstract: | Drug-consumption rooms (DCRs), also known as supervised injection sites or safe injection rooms, provide a secure environment for the consumption of both legal and illegal drugs. The primary goals of DCRs are to enhance the health conditions of drug users and to reduce the public nuisance associated with drug use. Using detailed panel micro-data from the Netherlands, we find that DCRs reduce drug use in the surrounding neighborhoods by about 13 percentage points, equivalent to approximately three-quarters of a standard deviation. Additionally, drug-related crime is reduced by 24%. House prices increase by 2.5%, but this effect is observed only in low-income neighborhoods. These findings indicate that controlled drug use in DCRs can significantly enhance neighborhood quality, particularly in economically disadvantaged areas. |
| JEL: | I18 I31 H41 R30 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19414 |
| By: | Kolev-Schaefer, Galina |
| Abstract: | Die Präferenzen und die Kaufkraft privater Verbraucher weisen erhebliche Unterschiede im EU-Vergleich auf, die sich in der Struktur ihrer Ausgaben widerspiegeln. So gibt man in Rumänien nur 3, 0 Prozent des eigenen Budgets für Restaurants und Beherbergungsleistungen aus, während in Malta mehr als ein Fünftel auf diese Kategorie entfällt. Deutschland bleibt Spitzenreiter in der Kategorie Freizeit, Sport und Kultur, für die die privaten Haushalte in etwa jeden zehnten Euro aus ihrem Konsumbudget ausgeben - Tendenz steigend. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:342588 |
| By: | van Spronsen, Josha; Beetsma, Roel |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of primary market yields on Spanish sovereign debt, focusing in particular on the role of ESM lending. To this end, we use an innovative multi-stage model to estimate for a given auction day the chosen number of auctions, maturities and target amounts. We do this by addressing endogenous factors with machine learning. The average outstanding maturity is kept stable at a high frequency: longer issues tend to be followed by shorter ones, and vice versa. In the final stage yields are determined. The effects of the different yield determinants are largely as expected, in view of the apparent segmentation of markets across maturities, which gives rise to local preferred habitat effects. The announcement of an ESM programme lowers yields. Moreover, once it is in place, its mere presence reduces short-term yields, but raises long-term yields. A larger ESM interest discount lowers yields across all maturities. |
| JEL: | C26 E43 E44 E62 F43 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19341 |
| By: | Sagner, Pekka; Voigtländer, Michael |
| JEL: | R31 R38 D31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342414 |
| By: | Knapp, Nadine; Landmesser, Emma |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Germany has gradually reformed the Skilled Immigration Act (FEG) to make the recruitment of workers from third countries easier. Little political attention has been paid to the fact that this also entails an increased risk of exploitative working conditions - particularly since abusive practices often begin as early as the recruitment stage in the country of origin. The Federal Government should therefore complement its efforts to attract international skilled labour with an effective regulatory framework for private recruitment agencies, stronger cross-border cooperation, and a more targeted use of migration-related development cooperation in key countries of origin and transit. |
| Keywords: | skilled labour migration, fair recruitment, Skilled Immigration Act, FEG, appalling working conditions, abusive recruitment, migration corridors, National Action Plan against Labour Exploitation and Forced Labour, NAP A/Z, development cooperation, regulation of private recruitment agencies |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342582 |