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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Brinkmann, Christina; Jäger, Simon; Kuhn, Moritz; Saidi, Farzad; Wolter, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Governments use short-time work (STW) schemes to subsidize job preservation during crises. We study the take-up of STW and its effects on worker outcomes and firm behavior using German administrative data from 2009 to 2021. Establishments utilizing STW tend to have higher wages, be larger, and have falling employment even before STW take-up. More adverse selection occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Within firms, STW is targeted towards workers likely to stay even in the absence of STW. To study the effects of STW, we examine two dimensions of policy variation: STW eligibility and extensions of potential benefit duration (PBD). Workers above retirement age, ineligible for STW, have identical employment trajectories compared to their slightly younger, eligible peers when their establishment takes up STW. A 2012 reform doubling PBD from 6 to 12 months did not secure employment at treated firms 12 months after take-up, with minimal heterogeneity across worker characteristics. However, treated and control firms experienced substantial and persistent differences in their wage trajectories, with control firms without extensions lowering wages compared to treated firms. Across cells, larger wage effects corresponded with smaller employment effects, consistent with downward wage flexibility preventing layoffs and substituting for the employment protection effects of STW. Our research designs reveal that STW extensions in Germany did not significantly improve short- or long-term employment outcomes. |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J30 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19653 |
| By: | Iftikhar, Zainab; Zaharieva, Anna |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of low-skilled immigration on small businesses, wages and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data. Quantitative analysis shows that low-skilled immigration benefits high-skilled workers while negatively affecting the welfare of low-skilled workers. It leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. Overall, there is a marginal loss to the economy in terms of per worker welfare. This loss is mitigated with increased skilled migration from India. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. Ethnic segregation of small businesses benefits low-skill native entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19657 |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel; Villa, Carmen |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, many European countries have raised the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) from 16 to 18 years. This study provides novel evidence of the impact of this policy on educational outcomes by exploiting the staggered timing of MLDA changes across Spanish regions. Raising the MLDA decreased alcohol consumption among adolescents aged 14–17 by 8 to 18% and improved their exam performance by 4% of a standard deviation. This effect appears driven by alcohol's direct impact on cognitive ability, as we find no significant changes in potential mediators like use of other substances or time spent on leisure activities, including socialising, sports, gaming, or internet use. We also observe a decrease in tranquilliser and sleeping pill use, suggesting improved mental health. Our findings indicate that reducing teenage alcohol consumption represents a significant opportunity to improve educational outcomes in Europe, where youth drinking rates remain notably high. |
| JEL: | I18 I12 I21 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19733 |
| By: | Giannantoni, Costanza; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Declining fertility and the persistent underrepresentation of women in the labour market are key concerns of our time. The fact that they overlap is not fortuitous. Traditionally, women everywhere have faced a conflict in balancing their career ambitions with family responsibilities. Yet, the pressures arising from this conflict vary enormously from one place to another. Existing research has tended to overlook the geographical features of this dilemma, which could result in an inadequate understanding of the issue and lead to ineffective policy responses. This paper examines how variations in the quality of regional institutions affect women’s capacity to reconcile career and motherhood and, consequently, gender equality within Europe. Using panel data from 216 regions across 18 European countries, we uncover a positive effect of regional institutional quality on fertility rates, taking into account variations in female employment. Moreover, we show that European regions with better government quality provide a more reliable environment for managing the career/motherhood dilemma often faced by women. In contrast, women living in regions with weaker government institutions are more constrained in both their career and childbearing options. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Gender equality; Institutional quality; European regions |
| JEL: | J11 J13 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19621 |
| By: | Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff |
| Abstract: | We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key findings. First, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months, while a higher expected level of inflation increases them. Second, an increase in uncertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towards safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third, higher inflation uncertainty encourages household job search, leading to higher subsequent employment among the unemployed and less under-employment among the employed. Finally, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a different effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is crucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decisions. |
| JEL: | C83 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19563 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1800 |
| By: | Brüll, Eduard |
| Abstract: | Many countries limit how long a worker may be kept on a temporary contract, yet little is known about how firms and workers respond when this maximum duration is tightened. Does a shorter cap simply displace temporary jobs, or does it push firms towards permanent hiring? I provide causal evidence on this duration margin using a 2001 German reform that restricted temporary contracts longer than two years in previously exempt small firms. Using difference-in-differences combined with propensity-score matching, I find that new jobs became around five percentage points more likely to start with a permanent contract, that contract durations bunched at the cap, and that overall employment was not adversely affected. Once the first capped contracts matured, turnover of short-tenure workers rose by a third to a half, but conversions to permanent contracts dominated this churn margin, and post-reform labour-market entrants saw higher early-career earnings and job stability. The findings speak directly to the current debate over lengthening such caps, including Germany's plan to double its own from two to four years. |
| Keywords: | Temporary Employment, Employment Protection, Labour Market Segmentation, Germany |
| JEL: | J21 J41 J68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341996 |
| By: | Jakobsen, Katrine; Jørgensen, Thomas H.; Low, Hamish |
| Abstract: | We study how fertility decisions interact with labor supply of men and women. First, we use longitudinal Danish register data and tax reforms to show that increases in wages of women decrease fertility while increases in wages of men increase fertility. Second, we estimate a life-cycle model to quantify the importance of fertility adjustments for labor supply and long-run gender inequality. Wage elasticities of women are more than 10\% lower if fertility cannot be adjusted in our model. Finally, we show that human capital depreciation around childbirth is an important driver of the long-run gender wage gap. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Labor supply; Human capital accumulation; Gender inequality; Tax reform |
| JEL: | J22 J13 D15 H24 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19713 |
| By: | Bontemps, Christian; Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Magnac, Thierry |
| Abstract: | The existence of transaction taxes reduces transactions, and in the case of housing, reduces household mobility and affects the costs of downsizing in dire times. We construct and estimate an overlapping generation model in which households are heterogeneous in age and earnings, and prudential regulation and the tax system are modeled in fine detail. These housing and public policies are likely to affect markets globally, and clearing both rental and property markets is important when evaluating them. We use the institutional and data setting of France, where transactions taxes are some of the highest in Europe, and evaluate the counterfactual impact of reducing transaction taxes from 14% to 6%, similar to US levels. The impact on transactions is strong, but the impact on welfare remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Heterogenous agents |
| JEL: | C68 D15 D58 H31 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19647 |
| By: | Lídia Farré; Christina Felfe; Libertad González; Patrick Schneider |
| Abstract: | Social norms are an important barrier to gender convergence in economic outcomes. We study whether a public policy designed to promote gender equality at home can pave the way towards gender convergence by shaping gender norms in the next generation. We exploit the introduction of paid paternity leave in Spain in 2007, which granted fathers 13 days of non-transferable paid leave after childbirth. Eligibility depended sharply on the child’s date of birth. We combine this policy variation with original survey data collected from adolescents and implement a within-school difference-in-differences design comparing children born just before and after the reform cutoff within the same school cohort, using adjacent cohorts as controls. Children exposed to paternity leave eligibility display more egalitarian gender attitudes and beliefs in early adolescence. They are also more likely to engage in counter-stereotypical household chores, and hold less gender-stereotypical expectations regarding future work and family roles. The effects largely disappear in late adolescence. |
| Keywords: | gender equality, gender norms, paternity leave permits |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12863 |
| By: | Giannakopoulos, Nicholas; Laliotis, Ioannis; Monastiriotis, Vassilis; Moustakas, Andreas |
| Abstract: | State-led decentralisation of collective bargaining may not only affect wages; it changes what a bargaining category means. In 2010–2013, Greek legislation suspended the favourability principle, withdrew extension of sectoral agreements, cut the statutory minimum wage, and opened firm-level bargaining to a new, non-union employee body. Using two decades of survey evidence alongside the hand-coded universe of sectoral and firm-level agreements, we estimate wave-specific, covariate-adjusted wage gaps and set the collective-bargaining estimates against the contracts that generated them. Our findings document a premium inversion: the firm-level wage gap, larger before the reform, collapses among small firms after it, while the sectoral gap rises and concentrates among lower-paid workers. Large firms retain a firm-level gap throughout, independent of the contractual floor. The contract data show why: post-reform firm-level floors converged on the statutory minimum, while the surviving sectoral gap reflects pre-crisis floors rather than renewed bargaining. Extension, favourability, and representation rules functioned as institutional complements; removing them together converted firm-level bargaining into an instrument of wage reduction and left a sectoral premium signalling inertia, not power. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining;decentralisation;wage premia;wage floors;minimum wage;Greece |
| JEL: | J31 J51 J52 J58 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140491 |
| By: | Schüler, Ruth M.; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Die alternde Bevölkerung in Deutschland erhöht den Druck auf die sozialen Sicherungssysteme und verschärft (künftig) den Fachkräftemangel. Um die Lebensarbeitszeit zu verlängern, wurden in den letzten Jahren finanzielle Anreize geschaffen, insbesondere durch die Abschaffung der Hinzuverdienstgrenze für vorgezogene Renten und seit 2026 durch steuerliche Vorteile für Erwerbstätigkeit über die Regelaltersgrenze hinaus im Rahmen der "Aktivrente". Historisch war der Hinzuverdienst parallel zum vorzeitigen Rentenbezug stark begrenzt, und zwar auf 6.300 Euro jährlich bis zur Heraufsetzung der Hinzuverdienstgrenze im Jahr 2020. Dies führte dazu, dass viele Rentnerinnen und Rentner, die vorzeitig in Rente gegangen waren, bis zum Jahr 2020 eine geringfügige Beschäftigung wählten. Nach zweimaliger Heraufsetzung der Hinzuverdienstgrenze in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 wurde die Hinzuverdienstgrenze zum Jahresbeginn 2023 vollständig abgeschafft. Seitdem können vorzeitige Altersrentnerinnen und -rentner unbegrenzt hinzuverdienen, ohne dass der Hinzuverdienst mit der Rente verrechnet wird. Durch die Reformen der Hinzuverdienstgrenze ist das bisherige Prinzip, dass Rente Erwerbseinkommen ersetzt, aufgehoben, da nun ein paralleler Bezug von unbegrenztem Einkommen und voller Rente möglich ist. Seit dem vollständigen Wegfall der Hinzuverdienstgrenze 2023 nimmt die Zahl der vorzeitig Verrenteten mit einem sogenannten "großen Hinzuverdienst", der über die ehemals geltende Hinzuverdienstgrenze hinausgeht, zu. Gleichzeitig hat sich konjunkturell bedingt der Arbeitsmarkt seit 2023 eingetrübt, was auch die Beschäftigungschancen Älterer und im Besonderen die Chancen von Rentnerinnen und Rentnern, die bereits Einkommen in Form einer Rente beziehen, verschlechtern könnte. Eine Auswertung von Daten der Deutschen Rentenversicherung in der Vollerhebung für die Jahre 2018 bis 2024 zeigt, dass der Anteil der vorzeitigen Rentner mit großem Hinzuverdienst auch 2024 trotz Eintrübung des Arbeitsmarktes weiter steigt. Zwar schwächt sich die Dynamik im Vergleich zum Anstieg zwischen 2022 und 2023 ab. Trotzdem ist der Anstieg bei den vorzeitigen Rentnern weiterhin stärker als bei den Regelaltersrentnern. Wegen der Nachmeldungen von Beschäftigung ist davon auszugehen, dass die am aktuellen Rand für 2024 ausgewiesenen Werte noch untererfasst sind. Langjährig Versicherte und Altersrentnerinnen und -rentner, welche aufgrund einer Schwerbehinderung vorzeitig eine Altersrente beziehen, gehen seit dem Wegfall der Hinzuverdienstgrenze im Durchschnitt früher in Rente. Zudem erzielen sie mittlerweile vergleichbare Entgelte wie die Personen, die zum gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalter in Rente gegangen sind. Das unterminiert das mit der Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze verbundene Ziel, den Rentenbezug ins Alter zu verschieben. Zudem entscheidet sich seit 2020 ein höherer Anteil an Personen für einen vorzeitigen Renteneintritt mit Abschlägen. Unter der Prämisse, dass der Vorruhestand nicht ohne Zusatzlasten organisiert werden kann (Pimpertz, 2023), erhöht der Wegfall der Hinzuverdienstgrenze die Belastung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung ausgabenseitig. |
| Abstract: | The ageing population in Germany is increasing pressure on the social insurance systems and will (in the future) exacerbate the shortage of skilled labour. To extend working lives, financial incentives have been created in recent years, in particular through the abolition of earnings limits for early retirees and, since 2026, through tax advantages for employment beyond the statutory retirement age under the so-called "active pension" (Aktivrente). Historically, additional earnings alongside early retirement were strictly limited, to €6, 300 per year until the earnings limit was raised in 2020. As a result, many retirees who took early retirement opted for marginal employment up to 2020. After the earnings limit was increased twice in 2020 and again in 2021, it was completely abolished at the beginning of 2023. Since then, early retirees have been able to earn unlimited additional income without it being offset against their pension. As a result of these reforms, the previous principle that pensions replace earned income has effectively been abolished, since it is now possible to receive both unlimited income and a full pension simultaneously. Since the complete removal of the earnings limit in 2023, the number of early retirees with so-called "high additional earnings, " i.e. earnings exceeding the former limit, has increased. At the same time, however, the labour market has deteriorated since 2023 due to cyclical factors, which may also reduce employment opportunities for older workers, particularly for retirees who already receive pension income. An analysis of German Pension Insurance full-sample data for the years 2018 to 2024 shows that the share of early retirees with high additional earnings continued to rise in 2024 despite the deterioration in the labour market. Although the pace of growth has slowed compared with the increase between 2022 and 2023, it remains stronger among early retirees than among retirees at the statutory retirement age. Due to delayed employment reporting, it can be assumed that the figures reported for 2024 are still somewhat underestimated. Persons with long contribution histories and retirees with severe disabilities have, on average, been retiring earlier since the abolition of the earnings limit. Moreover, they now earn income comparable to those who retired at the statutory retirement age. This undermines the objective associated with raising the statutory retirement age, namely increasing the effective working life. In addition, since 2020 a higher proportion of individuals has opted for early retirement with benefit reductions. Early retirement thus increases expenditure pressure on the statutory pension insurance system. |
| JEL: | H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342425 |
| By: | Keil, Maria |
| Abstract: | The logistics industry, as well as various trade and industrial sectors, are facing the challenge of dealing with an economically significant shortage of truck drivers. Currently, approximately 7% of truck driver positions in Germany and Europe are vacant (IRU 2024). At the same time, statistics show an increase in transport performance in ton-kilometers and a shift towards vehicles in higher weight classes (DLR 2023). The age structure is a key aspect that could contribute to this shortage of truck drivers, particularly in a long-term perspective. In Germany, the proportion of truck drivers aged 55 or older is 36%, while at the European level this is 33%. In contrast, the proportion of truck drivers aged 25 or younger in Germany and Europe is only 3% and 5%, respectively (IRU 2024). This difference points to future challenges in human resources management for logistics: A significant proportion of truck drivers will retire due to age, but a corresponding increase in the number of younger truck drivers cannot be expected. Furthermore, truck drivers are exposed to a high daily workload. Hege et al. 2019 as well as Hill and Boyle 2007 demonstrate that an analysis is necessary to promote the occupational health and safety of this specific group, strengthen their intrinsic motivation, and enhance their performance. Truck drivers are exposed to various hazards. An empirical study showed that insomnia, a stress-induced reduction in attention, and the resulting irritability are significant risk factors for traffic accidents (Shams et al. 2021). Therefore, a promising area of research is dedicated to the well-being of truck drivers and employees. According to relevant research, employee well-being has a significant impact on work efficiency in general (Corbett 2024) and road safety specifically. To gain deeper scientific insights into this area, an interdisciplinary approach is necessary. Interdisciplinary research challenges disciplinary boundaries and exclusive focuses and offers new perspectives for understanding complex phenomena that cannot be fully grasped by a single discipline alone. Expanding disciplinary perspectives to include complex empirical questions is necessary to investigate real-world situations, gain new insights, and develop problem-oriented solutions. Challenges such as cross-disciplinary motivation, the development of a common language, the formulation of shared theories, and the creation of practical applications must be overcome. If these hurdles are overcome, interdisciplinary research can significantly contribute to a better understanding of complex management phenomena. Not only does it support a holistic perspective on theoretical questions, it also enables the development of novel methodological approaches. Collaboration between different disciplines is crucial for expanding scientific knowledge and developing practice-relevant solutions to current management challenges (Reinecke et al. 2024). This dissertation highlights the need for research in this field and addresses complex issues related to it. Due to this complexity, interdisciplinary approaches were chosen. The study addresses the relevance of personnel heterogeneity and individual resources for job performance, as well as the previously under-researched relationships between truck driver characteristics and their performance and safety. A synchronized data collection approach for truck drivers, which considers individual characteristics and their impact on health, performance, and safety, is presented below. Practical applications in human resource management and distribution are outlined. Finally, the underlying theories and methodological approaches are explained. The human factor is the central research topic in each of the individual complexes of this dissertation. This provides the relevant framework and highlights the shift from the Industry 4.0 concept with a technological focus to the "Industry 5.0" paradigm with a complementary human-centric approach. The aim is to analyze the effects of human factors and utilize them in operational areas for the productive design of work processes, thereby jointly improving work quality in terms of health and productivity. In this sense, this dissertation offers insights into future human-centric logistics management concepts. |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:160671 |
| By: | D’Alessandro, Francesco (Department of Sociology and Business Law, University of Bologna); Santarelli, Enrico (Department of Economics, University of Bologna); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional technological relatedness and local AI knowledge influence regional innovative activity, as measured by patenting activity. Using a novel three-way longitudinal dataset and leveraging a deep learning-based identification of AI patents, we show that two broad mechanisms operate in parallel. First, in accordance with the extant literature, technologies that are cognitively close to a region’s existing patent portfolio enjoy higher patenting activity, confirming that relatedness remains a strong and persistent predictor of innovative output. Second, local AI endowments are positively associated with patenting across technological fields, even after conditioning on relatedness, indicating that AI plays an enabling and cross-cutting role in a given regional innovation system. Moreover, the interaction between relatedness and AI turns out to be negative and statistically significant, implying that AI attenuates the extent to which local innovative efforts depend on the technology’s proximity to the regional portfolio. In sum, AI appears to enhance overall local innovative activity while reducing its reliance on pre-existing regional knowledge structures. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, AI, technological change, regional innovation, relatedness |
| JEL: | O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18817 |
| By: | Aleksandra Jandric (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague); Adam Gersl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between private equity investment and industry-level performance in Europe over 2008-2023. We combine Invest Europe and Eurostat data to construct harmonized country-sector-year panels covering 16 countries overall and 10 sectors, with outcome-specific estimation samples. PE intensity is measured relative to sectoral production value and enters the models with a one-year lag. Baseline fixed-effects models are complemented by additional fixed-effects structures, timing tests and robustness checks. Results indicate that higher lagged PE intensity is consistently associated with stronger subsequent nominal growth in output and value added. Personnel-cost growth is also generally positively associated with PE intensity. By contrast, the employment association is weaker: it loses statistical significance under several robustness checks and does not display the temporal ordering observed for the monetary outcomes. The paper updates the limited European industry-level evidence using a novel harmonized dataset and a period covering substantially different economic conditions, offering new insight into the extent to which PE investment intensity is associated with broader sector-level outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Private equity; Investment; Industry growth; Production; Employment; Panel data; Europe |
| JEL: | G24 G32 C23 E44 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_22 |
| By: | Ziegler, Lennart (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the supply of job applicants shapes hiring outcomes of firms. Using Austrian matched vacancy-worker data, my analysis exploits variation in the number of job applications, inferred from referrals made by the public employment service. To address endogeneity concerns, I instrument the number of applications with the inflow of jobseekers from mass layoffs. A larger supply of applicants shortens vacancy filling duration and raises the job tenure of hires, consistent with improved worker-firm match quality. At the same time, more applications lower starting wages, which indicates that the employer-bargaining channel dominates the match-quality channel. A larger applicant pool also reinforces worker segregation: firms with high shares of male (native) workers hire even fewer female (foreign) workers when applications are abundant. This reflects employer selection rather than a shift in the composition of the applicant pool, which responds little to the supply shock. |
| Keywords: | labor market tightness, vacancies, recruitment, worker-firm match quality, wage setting, worker segregation |
| JEL: | J23 J62 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18778 |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Using employer-employee Italian data over the period 1998-2018 we analyze the impact of the largest regularization of undocumented immigrant workers in Italy on wage, employment and mobility outcomes of natives. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of the 2002 Bossi-Fini law that unexpectedly regularized 634, 000 undocumented non-EU immigrants, with variation across firms and provinces that was not correlated with previous economic performance. We find that the policy had a small effect on the average wage of native workers and positive effects on their employment at the local labor market level. Additionally, native co-workers in firms more affected by the policy were more likely to change employers in the post-policy period. Such higher mobility resulted in a heterogeneous wage effect across switchers: workers that managed to transition towards better firms experienced wage gains in the medium- and long-run, while other workers experienced wage losses. This implied an increase in wage dispersion for natives and some losers among Italian workers. |
| Keywords: | Workers;Firms;Immigrant Regularization;Local Labor Market |
| JEL: | F16 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-09 |
| By: | Atella, Vincenzo; Ceschin, Nicola; Decarolis, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the price effects of a merger between two major producers of orthopedic prostheses. It shows that, in the public procurement markets where these products are purchased, the effect of the merger hinges on the characteristics of both the procurement design and the organizational structure of the buyers. Using data from all public procurement events in Italy between 2012 and 2019, and exploiting a difference-in-differences model where pacemakers play the role of the control group, we find that the merger led to a 7.6% increase in prices and that this effect is concentrated in the first three years post-merger. Further insights are: (i) a heterogeneous impact among gender and age groups such that most of the burden is on female patients aged 65 and above; (ii) short term quality does not change, but patenting activity declines; (iii) there is no evidence of the merger triggering ex post coordinated effects in the form of bidding and entry patterns compatible with firm collusion. |
| JEL: | I18 J18 C21 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19737 |
| By: | Merk, Christine; Nordø, Åsta Dyrnes; Andersen, Gisle |
| Abstract: | * Citizens across five North Sea countries (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK; N = 9, 750) consistently rate cross-border electricity and CCS infrastructure projects more negatively than identical domestic projects, a robust "trade penalty". * The direction of opposition depends on the good being traded: for electricity, exporting attracts the strongest resistance; for CO2 storage, it is importing. Electricity is perceived as a valuable national resource, CO2 as foreign waste. * The trade penalty is not driven by fears of import dependence: respondents who value energy independence object most strongly to electricity exports, not imports. The underlying concern is national control over resources, not supply security. * Neither climate concern nor general support for international cooperation overrides the preference for domestic solutions. Citizens who see decarbonization as a national responsibility (88 percent of respondents) show the strongest trade penalty. * Expectations of concrete economic benefits, such as jobs or lower energy prices, improve acceptance of cross-border projects. This points to a communication lever that climate framing alone does not offer. * Policymakers should foreground domestic benefits, make the costs of purely national solutions visible, establish transparent rules for sharing costs and benefits across countries, and calibrate communication to each technology. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border infrastructure, Public acceptance, Carbon capture and storage (CCS), Electricity grid integration, Resource nationalism, EU climate policy, Grenzüberschreitende Infrastruktur, öffentliche Akzeptanz, Kohlenstoffabscheidung und -speicherung (CCS), Integration in das Stromnetz, Ressourcen-Nationalismus, EU-Klimapolitik |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:342557 |
| By: | Miravete, Eugenio; Moral, Maria |
| Abstract: | The Spanish industrial policy prohibited automobiles imports from 1939 to 1986, when Spain joined the European Union. We document how the industrial policy spurred the development led Spain to become the 5th largest automobile manufacturer in the world. This policy limited consumer choice but also resulted in pronounced regional and national home bias favoring local brands. We estimate a rich oligopoly equilibrium model to approximate the protection equivalence of the long-lasting effect of industrial policy through changes in consumer preferences.Today, domestic automakers still enjoy an advantage equivalent to an 8.5% tariff, compared to the 10.3% import-duty into the EU. |
| JEL: | F15 L13 L52 L62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19765 |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evidence on how Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based workplace safety systems shape perceived job quality. I conducted a preregistered vignette experiment with a nationally representative sample of 2, 172 Dutch adults who evaluated otherwise identical workplaces introducing one of three safety systems: human supervisors, AI-only monitoring, or hybrid AI-human supervision. Compared with human supervision, both AI-only and hybrid systems reduced perceived job satisfaction, work meaningfulness, and perceived social value of the job. Contrary to expectations, combining AI with human supervisors did not mitigate these negative effects. Respondents also viewed AI-based systems as less respectful of workers' privacy and dignity, despite viewing them as effective as human supervisors. Perceived fair wages changed little across conditions. These findings suggest that AI can influence work not only by improving safety but also by reducing important non-pecuniary dimensions of job quality, highlighting that the welfare consequences of workplace AI extend beyond productivity and accident prevention. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence (AI), safety systems, survey experiment, work meaningfulness, job quality |
| JEL: | I39 J01 J28 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18782 |
| By: | Boeri, Tito; Crescioli, Tommaso; Garnero, Andrea; Luisetto, Lorenzo G. |
| Abstract: | Can collective bargaining mitigate monopsony power? This paper studies the extent to which collective agreements regulating employee noncompete clauses affect firm-level markdowns in French manufacturing. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that such regulation reduces markdowns by 1.3%–2.2% on average. The effects increase over time and are stronger among smaller, less productive, low-wage firms. Leveraging a French Court of Cassation ruling requiring financial compensation for enforceable noncompetes, we show complementarity between national regulations and sectoral bargaining. By strengthening compliance and adding limitations, collective bargaining emerges as an effective regulatory tool shaping firms' use of noncompete agreements. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining;monopsony;noncomplete agreements;unions |
| JEL: | J42 J51 J53 J58 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140384 |
| By: | Sagner, Pekka; Voigtländer, Michael |
| Abstract: | Die Studie beleuchtet das Zusammenspiel von Migration und Wohnungsmarkt in Deutschland und verbindet eine Bestandsaufnahme zentraler Markttrends mit einer empirischen Auswertung repräsentativer Haushaltsdaten (SOEP). Ausgangspunkt ist ein Markt, der sich seit den 2010er-Jahren von langen Phasen der Stagnation zu anhaltender Knappheit entwickelt hat, getragen von einem positiven Außenwanderungssaldo, teilweise starker Binnenwanderungskonzentration, Einkommenszuwächsen und lange niedrigen Zinsen, zuletzt jedoch gebremst durch den Zinsanstieg und den Einbruch der Bautätigkeit. Im europäischen Vergleich bleibt Deutschland eine "Mieternation" mit niedriger Wohneigentumsquote; zugleich wächst die Zahl der Haushalte weiter, besonders in wirtschaftlich starken Städten. Deskriptiv wird gezeigt: Die Wohnfläche pro Kopf ist langfristig gestiegen, Unterschiede zwischen Eigentümern und Mietern sowie nach Migrationshintergrund bleiben jedoch bestehen. Subjektiv empfinden vor allem Mieterhaushalte mit direktem Migrationshintergrund häufiger ihre Wohnung als zu klein. Bei den Wohnkosten (definiert als Bruttokaltkosten; bei Eigentümern kalte Nebenkosten plus Zins-/Tilgung) verlaufen die durchschnittlichen Mietkosten von Migranten und Nicht-Migranten nahezu deckungsgleich; bei Eigentümern liegen die laufenden Kosten von Haushalten mit direktem Migrationshintergrund höher, unter anderem, weil häufiger Finanzierungen bedient werden. Beim Anteil der Wohnkosten am Nettoeinkommen (Wohnkostenbelastung) zeigt sich in beiden Gruppen ein stabiler Abstand zulasten von Migrantenhaushalten. Ökonometrisch werden multivariate Modelle mit umfangreichen Kontrollen (Haushalts- und Wohnungsmerkmale, Region, Jahr) sowie eine "Umzieher"-Perspektive (kurze Wohndauer) geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass sich Unterschiede weniger in den nominalen Wohnkosten als vielmehr in der relativen Belastung manifestieren: Haushalte mit direktem Migrationshintergrund tragen, unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen, häufig eine um rund 1 bis 2 Prozentpunkte höhere Wohnkostenbelastung als vergleichbare Nicht-Migrantenhaushalte; dieses Muster findet sich bei Mietern und Eigentümern und wird durch die Umzieher-Analyse grundsätzlich gestützt. Die Befunde sind als robuste Zusammenhänge zu verstehen; kausale Mechanismen (z. B. Präferenzen, Netzwerke, Diskriminierung) sind in Haushaltsdaten nur begrenzt direkt beobachtbar. Politisch legt die Studie nahe: Engpässe lassen sich primär durch mehr Angebot lindern; schnellere Plan- und Genehmigungsprozesse, produktiveres Bauen, serielle Replikation und bessere Baulandmobilisierung. Flankierend sollte die Subjektförderung (Wohngeld) zielgenau entlasten. Sozial geförderter Wohnraum kann Zugangsbarrieren für benachteiligte Gruppen adressieren, wenn Vergabekriterien konsequent am Zugangsproblem orientiert sind und Bindungen wirksam genutzt werden. Strengere Mietpreisregulierungen bergen dagegen das Risiko, das Angebot weiter zu verknappen. Insgesamt spricht viel dafür, Migration als wirtschaftliche Chance zu sichern, durch ausreichend, bezahlbaren Wohnraum und faire Zugangschancen auf angespannten Märkten. |
| Abstract: | This report examines the interplay between migration and Germany's housing market, combining a stocktaking of key market trends with an empirical assessment of representative household data (SOEP). Since the 2010s, a previously sluggish market has shifted toward persistent scarcity, driven by positive net migration, concentrated internal migration, rising incomes, and a prolonged low-interest environment, recently tempered by higher interest rates and a sharp decline in construction. In European comparison, Germany remains a "nation of renters" with a low homeownership rate, while the number of households continues to grow, especially in economically dynamic cities. Descriptively, living space per capita has increased over time, yet gaps between owners and renters, and by migration background-persist. Subjective assessments indicate that renter households with a direct migration background more often perceive their dwelling as too small. Regarding housing costs (defined as cold housing costs; for owners: cold charges plus interest and principal payments), average rents for migrant and non-migrant households are nearly identical; by contrast, owner-occupiers with a migration background face higher ongoing costs, partly because mortgages are more common. In the housing cost burden (share of net household income), a stable disadvantage for migrant households appears among both renters and owners. Econometrically, multivariate models with extensive controls (household and dwelling characteristics, region, year) are estimated alongside a "movers" perspective (short residence duration). Results suggest that differences materialize less in nominal costs than in relative burden: households with a direct migration background, ceteris paribus, often face a housing cost burden around 1 to 2 percentage points higher than comparable non-migrant households. This pattern holds for renters and owners and is broadly corroborated in the recent movers subsample. These findings indicate robust associations; underlying mechanisms (e.g., preferences, networks, discrimination) are only partially observable in household data. Policy implications point primarily to expanding supply: faster planning and permitting, productivity gains in construction, greater standardization/replication, and improved land mobilization. Targeted demand-side support (housing allowance) should complement this. Social housing can mitigate access barriers for disadvantaged groups if allocation rules focus on access problems and binding periods are used effectively. Stricter rent controls risk constraining supply. Ensuring migration as an economic asset ultimately requires sufficient, affordable housing and fair access in tight markets. |
| JEL: | R21 J61 I32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342420 |
| By: | Kartakis, Stelios; Thiermann, Insa; Cingiz, Kutay; Wesseler, Justus |
| Abstract: | Plant products issued a plant passport upon risk-based border inspections can circulate freely within the European Union. Border control inspections are imperfect, and pests or pathogens may remain undetected. Post-border detection efforts can reduce the risk of further spread and partly rely on voluntary actions by actors involved in plant trade, such as nurseries. Nurseries have a direct interest in healthy plant material, yet investments in early detection technologies remain driven by private incentives. We investigate nursery preferences for volatile organic compound (VOC) “e-nose” sensors using a discrete choice experiment among 343 nursery operators in Italy, Romania, Germany, and France. Respondents evaluated VOC sensor alternatives against the status quo of existing inspection practices. Choice data were analyzed using mixed logit and latent class models. The predicted probability of choosing a VOC sensor alternative was 76%. Adoption decisions were primarily shaped by cost considerations and performance-related attributes, particularly detection speed and reliability. Certification potential and ownership structure of the technology were considered less important. Cross-country differences indicate that nurseries place varying importance on technology attributes, suggesting that technology design and commercialization strategies should account for heterogeneous end-user preferences. Adoption likelihood is higher among nurseries that are members of professional associations, pointing to the role of networks in fostering technology diffusion. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404459 |
| By: | Cerina, Fabio (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Dienesch, Elisa (University of Cagliari, CRENoS, and AMSE); Monge-Naranjo, Alex (Atlanta FED, Emory University and CEPR); Moro, Alessio (University of Cagliari, CEPR and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using a French administrative panel following workers over 1984-2021, we quantify how worker flows account for employment polarization. We trace job-to-job flows across manual, routine, and abstract occupations, and flows between employment and non-employment. Polarization emerges after 1994 mostly through a shift in the latter: a collapse in entry into routine jobs, concentrated in routine-cognitive occupations. Job-to-job upgrading from routine to abstract remains large and stable, with non-college workers accounting for 76% of net flows. Manual employment grows mainly by absorbing entrants. Polarization reflects sorting at entry and re-entry rather than incumbent displacement, motivating life-cycle models incorporating both margins. |
| Keywords: | labor market polarization, worker flows, occupational mobility, routine-biased technological change, longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J62 J24 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18826 |
| By: | Michael Christl; Andreas Peichl; Tiphaine Wibault |
| Abstract: | The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026 led to a sharp upward revision in inflation forecasts for Germany, which we attribute primarily to the conflict itself. Using microsimulation methods adapted to simulate a commodity price change, we translate this forecast revision into upper bounds on household-specific purchasing-power losses via a compensating variation approach, distinguishing the loss recovered through consumption taxes from the full loss including the pre-tax transfer to producers. Both measures are sizeable and regressive: in 2026, the average household loses 0.25% of income through the tax channel and 1.15% under the full measure, with bottom-decile losses of 0.63% and 2.87% against 0.12% and 0.65% for the top decile. The Gini coefficient rises by up to 0.14 points, and elderly households are disproportionately affected. Our results show that a supply-side shock originating outside Europe can have a sizeable and unequal impact on household living standards. |
| Keywords: | oil price shock, Middle East conflict, household welfare, distributional analysis, microsimulation, inflation |
| JEL: | D31 E31 Q41 H23 C15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12853 |
| By: | Bousselin, Audrey (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Sologon, Denisa (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)) |
| Abstract: | Adverse shocks can create inequalities if some groups respond more strongly than others. This paper examines whether a common disruption leads to differential changes in children’s subjective well-being by gender. We use longitudinal data from the Luxembourg Child Well-Being Survey, which follows the same children before (2019) and after (2021) the COVID-19 shock, a major disruption to schooling, social interactions, and daily routines. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate within-child changes in life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect. Girls and boys report similar levels of life satisfaction and positive affect before the disruption, but follow different trajectories afterward. Girls experience larger declines in life satisfaction and positive affect and a larger increase in negative affect, with the sharpest deteriorations concentrated in school experiences, family relationships, self-perceptions, and loneliness. As a result, a sizeable gender gap in subjective well-being emerge, which increases with age and remains robust to alternative specifications, selective attrition, and alternative cardinalizations of ordinal well-being scales. The gender gap is not concentrated among specific socio-economic groups. |
| Keywords: | child well-being, gender differences, socio-emotional development, shocks, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I31 I14 I21 J13 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18765 |
| By: | Marco Caliendo; Katrin Huber; Ingo E. Isphording; Jakob Wegmann |
| Abstract: | We study the extent, correlates, and consequences of reporting bias in survey wages using German linked survey-administrative data (SOEP-CMI-ADIAB). Survey wages differ systematically from administrative records: mean survey wages are 7% lower, and discrepancies follow a mean-reverting pattern. Individual characteristics explain little of the reporting bias, whereas firm context explains most of the variation. Since neither data source alone is sufficient, we construct a hybrid wage that combines their respective strengths. Measurement choice matters, but in ways that depend on how administrative top-coding is handled across the full wage distribution: when wages are outcomes, censoring administrative wages at the assessment limit understates returns to education by 4–11% and the gender wage gap by up to 23%, while imputation reverses the bias for returns to education. When wages are regressors, wage-satisfaction gradients are 9–28% steeper with survey than with administrative wages below the assessment limit, a pattern inconsistent with classical attenuation bias and pointing to non-classical, context-dependent misreporting. We provide guidance for choosing between administrative, survey, and hybrid wages depending on the application, with lessons that extend to any setting where self-reported wages are collected alongside top-coded administrative records. |
| Keywords: | reporting bias, measurement error, wage, income, administrative data, survey data, data linkage |
| JEL: | J30 C81 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0103 |
| By: | Davide Contu; Chiara Sotis; Giles Atkinson; Vincent Chung; Damien Dussaux; Stavros Georgiou; Susana Mourato; Irène Hu |
| Abstract: | Exposure to chemicals has been shown to cause skin sensitisation, leading to chronic conditions such as allergic contact dermatitis. Beyond physical symptoms, skin sensitisation can also reduce one’s quality of life, impair productivity and cause psychological distress. Despite its prevalence, information on the value that the public places on avoiding chemical-induced skin sensitisation remains limited. To fill this gap, the present paper details a stated preference survey estimating individuals’ willingness-to-pay to avoid the frequency, severity and visibility of skin flare-ups in nine countries (Canada, Denmark, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States). It also explores how other socio-economic factors such as age, gender and income affect the valuation of skin sensitisation. This work is part of a series of large-scale studies resulting from the Surveys on Willingness-to-Pay to Avoid Negative Chemicals-Related Health Effects project that intends to establish internationally comparable values for the willingness-to-pay to avoid negative health effects due to exposure to chemicals. The results from this paper are expected to be widely applicable in analyses assessing the value of reduced skin sensitisation in a range of chemical and environmental contexts. |
| Keywords: | chemicals regulation, economic valuation, health risk, health valuation, monetised benefits, morbidity valuation, non-market valuation, skin sensitisation, stated preferences, surveys, value of a statistical case, willingness-to-pay |
| JEL: | D61 I18 J17 K32 Q51 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:277-en |
| By: | Maria Carreri; Davide Cipullo; Marco Le Moglie; Alberto Perego |
| Abstract: | Local governments promise democratic responsiveness but are also vulnerable to political capture by illicit actors. While existing research documents the political and economic consequences of capture, less is known about how bureaucrats respond when political leadership is captured — whether they become instruments of corrupt rule or resist it. We examine these competing expectations in the context of Italian municipalities infiltrated by mafia organizations. Leveraging a law that allows the central government to dissolve captured municipal councils, we study how bureaucratic performance responds when political capture is abruptly removed. Using a difference-in-differences design with matched controls based on a machine-learning index of mafia-infiltration risk, we show that dissolutions substantially improve bureaucratic performance. Evidence from administrative data and investigative reports supports the interpretation that the lower performance during mafia rule was driven by bureaucrats resisting political capture. Our findings show that bureaucracies mitigate, rather than amplify, the downstream consequences of political capture. |
| Keywords: | political capture, bureaucratic performance, organized crime, state capacity |
| JEL: | D73 H70 K42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12861 |
| By: | Bruns, Daniel (Leibniz University of Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | How do residential real estate markets value large-scale climate policies? We study how Germany’s coal phase-out affects residential property values near decommissioned power plants. Combining detailed residential property listing data from 2007 to 2023 with the staggered timing of plant closures, we estimate dynamic spatial DiD models. Nearby residential property values decline by 8.2%, implying aggregate homeowner wealth losses of approximately €1.9 billion. To distinguish economic from environmental adjustment, we examine changes in employment, population, purchasing power, and air pollution. Declines in population, employment and purchasing power coincide with falling residential property values, whereas improvements in air quality do not seem to offset these losses. Our findings show that residential real estate markets primarily capitalize the deterioration of local economic fundamentals rather than improvements in environmental quality, implying that climate policy generates substantial localized household wealth effects through residential real estate markets – a distributional channel that complements conventional evaluations focused on aggregate environmental benefits and macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Keywords: | asset pricing, housing prices, climate policy, wealth effects, real estate |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18865 |
| By: | Sergi Jiménez-Martín |
| Abstract: | We estimate causal effects of the 2011 Spanish pension reform—which raised the normal retirement age (NRA) from 65 to 67, conditioning access on accumulated contribution years—on retirement timing, exit route, and premature mortality. Using data from the Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales we find that the reform delayed retirement by about eight months on average for fully treated individuals belonging to the 1948-1957 cohorts, the cohorts observable in our data. Because the reform phases in gradually until the 1962 cohort—the first to face the fully phased-in rules, which then apply unchanged to all later cohorts—the total effect will be larger as more intensely affected cohorts complete their working lives. The dominant response is a reallocation away from retirement at and before age 65 toward retirement after 65, and is markedly larger for women, who are less likely to meet the long-career exemption. The reform raises premature mortality, significantly so for men; the implied gender differential widens the male mortality excess and narrows the female survival advantage, though sample-weighted gaps are sensitive to the large share of male controls. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-23 |
| By: | Christos Antonios Statheas; Iacovos Sterghides; Marios Zachariadis |
| Abstract: | We use inflation expectations survey data for households across the euro-area from 2004:1 to 2025:2 to construct two direct measures of inattention: one based on individual perception errors about current inflation, and a second based on individuals who do not know the current inflation rate. We find that the heterogeneity of the impact of aggregate noise across education levels is significantly more evident for perception errors as compared to the second measure. Importantly, perception-errors-based inattention declines with individuals’ early lifetime inflation experience and rises with recent experience. By contrast, the measure based on those who don’t know the current inflation rate does not respond systematically to households’ lifetime inflation experiences across these countries. We also find that inattention as measured by current inflation perception errors is lower in most of these euro-area economies after the arrival of extreme adverse shocks and for individuals with ‘greater skin in the game’, but not according to the second measure which does not exhibit as clear a pattern across countries. Relating these measures to forecast errors, we show that while higher perception errors relate to over-prediction of the future inflation rate and higher inflation forecast inaccuracy, the opposite is true for the measure based on those who don’t know the current inflation rate due to compositional effects unrelated to inattention. Unlike the latter, perception errors systematically produce results in line with economic theory. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; lifetime experience; forecast errors; behavioral; belief heterogeneity; Central Bank communication. |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E70 |
| Date: | 2026–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:01-2026 |
| By: | Card, David (University of California, Berkeley); Cardoso, Ana Rute (IAE Barcelona (CSIC)); Silva, Pedro (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | During the 2010 financial crisis, the Portuguese government enacted a series of reforms in its prescription drug reimbursement system. Over the next three years, value added per pharmacist in retail pharmacies fell by a third, reflecting a rise in generic substitution and reductions in the markups allowed for prescription drugs. This massive shock led to pay cuts for incumbent pharmacists and the introduction of a two-tier pay system for new hires, with little or no reduction in the growth of employment. We use detailed longitudinal records from the Quadros de Pessoal database, merged with collective bargaining settlements and firms' financial records, to study the impacts of the reforms. We estimate that between 2009 and 2022 average wages of pharmacists fell by a third, largely due to lower wages for entering cohorts. The implied responsiveness of wages to productivity is substantially above most estimates in the rent-sharing literature, arguably reflecting the strong attachment of workers to the sector and the steady inflow of newly graduating pharmacists. We then consider how wages of pharmacists have diverged relative to other health care professionals, and the decisions of recent college applicants to enter the profession. |
| Keywords: | pharmacist, collective bargaining, wages, education, retail pharmacy, Portugal |
| JEL: | J52 J31 J24 J33 I26 J44 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18842 |
| By: | Ioannis Laliotis; Christos A. Makridis |
| Abstract: | The Gallup World Poll (GWP) links internationally comparable measures of well-being and attitudes to a short labour-market module. We benchmark its employment and hours variables against EU Labour Force Survey (EU LFS) microdata in available European country-years from 2009 to 2023. Under a broad GWP definition that includes both part-time categories, the average country-level GWP-EU LFS employment-rate gap is approximately -1.0 percentage point. The pooled Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition yields a total gap of -0.85 points: observable composition accounts for -0.97 points and the unexplained component is 0.12 points, with a standard error of 1.99 points. This aggregate result masks country and demographic heterogeneity. A narrow definition that excludes part-time work understates employment by roughly 10-20 points. For hours, the GWP mean is 40.18 hours per week, compared with 37.41 in the EU LFS. Demographic reweighting reduces the aggregate difference from 2.77 to 1.99 hours, while group-specific reweighting raises each country-group difference by 0.11 to 0.58 hour. Hours reports generally require more recall and aggregation than binary employment status. The GWP limits this burden by anchoring employment to the preceding seven days and recording total weekly hours in five intervals. The resulting variable provides a common interval-based measure of work intensity; exact mean levels depend on the values assigned to those intervals. |
| Keywords: | survey validation, Gallup World Poll, EU Labour Force Survey, employment, hours worked |
| JEL: | C81 C83 J21 J22 I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12848 |
| By: | Hansson, Åsa (The Ratio Institute); Lundberg, Kristoffer (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | Declining fertility is reshaping the demographic outlook of advanced economies, yet its long-run macroeconomic consequences remain poorly understood. Using a dynamic microsimulation model calibrated to the Swedish economy, this paper examines how alternative fertility and migration scenarios affect population dynamics, dependency ratios, GDP, GDP per capita, and economic growth between 2025 and 2100. We find that lower fertility initially raises GDP per capita through a temporary demographic dividend, but these gains are eventually offset by population ageing, a shrinking labor force, and slower economic growth. Under current fertility rates, GDP in 2100 is projected to be around 13 percent lower than under a stable demographic scenario, while lower fertility combined with lower migration reduces GDP to less than half that level. The findings highlight the importance of demographic structure for long-run economic prosperity and sustainable public finances. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; demographic change; economic growth; welfare state; microsimulation |
| JEL: | E24 H55 J11 |
| Date: | 2026–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0391 |
| By: | Curi, Claudia (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Dibiasi, Andreas (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Nicolini, Francesco (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Ploner, Matteo (University of Trento); Tonin, Mirco (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information -- tailored by age, gender, and county of residence -- does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement plans, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data. |
| Keywords: | subjective longevity, expert forecasts, financial literacy, retirement |
| JEL: | D83 J26 D15 G50 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18863 |
| By: | Martinez, Marco; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Vasta, Michelangelo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the nexus between railroads and inventive activities in Italy in the period 1861-1936. We develop two new georeferenced datasets on railway stations and patents. By adopting the staggered difference in differences identification strategy by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), we show that the impact of railroad construction on innovation is only visible for the first wave of construction of the period of the Destra storica (1861-1878), when the network was expanded following a state building strategy. However, these effects became noticeable only after more than two decades and concern mostly independent inventors and low-quality patents. |
| Keywords: | Italy |
| JEL: | O31 O33 N73 L92 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19812 |
| By: | Moretti, Margherita (Bocconi University); Balbo, Nicoletta; Tosi, Marco; Alburez-Gutierrez, Diego |
| Abstract: | Disability is usually framed as an individual condition, yet its associated consequences may extend through kinship networks. Despite this, the population reach of disability through kin remains unknown. We use demographic kinship matrix models combining fertility and mortality schedules with disability prevalence, to estimate population exposure to disability through grandparents, parents, siblings, children, and grandchildren across ages in Europe in 2021. We quantify exposure using three complementary measures: the probability of having at least one kin with disability, the population-level number of individuals exposed, and the proportion of kin with disability. Our results show that exposure is both widespread and substantial: across all ages and kin types, 70% of women in Europe, corresponding to about 160 million women, have at least one close kin with disability. In childhood and early adulthood, more than half to three-quarters of European women have at least one grandparent with disability, with the age-specific number of exposed women peaking at about 1.5 million; in midlife, about one-third to nearly one-half have at least one parent with disability, with the population-level exposure peaking at about 1.4 million women. Throughout much of women’s lives, between 20% and 40% of their close kin have disability. These findings show that disability is not only an individual experience but also a relational exposure amplified by kinship structures. Exposure to kin disability constitutes a hidden source of inequality that accumulates over the life course and intersects with gender and socioeconomic inequalities. |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:udmkh_v1 |
| By: | Annibali, Claudio; Bergemann, Annette; Alessie, Rob |
| Abstract: | Health screenings are potentially powerful tools to mitigate adverse health and labour outcomes. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the labour market and health effects of a diabetes warning in a country that has not introduced such a screening system. Using data from over 160, 000 participants in Lifelines, a Dutch cohort study, and a multidimensional regression discontinuity design, we estimate the short- and long-run impacts of a diabetes risk warning. Individuals under 40 increase their employment rate following a warning, with effects that are especially pronounced and persistent for women. These employment gains are accompanied by improvements in self-reported health among women and reduced smoking among men. Among older individuals, the responses are more heterogeneous: Women are more likely to retire and reduce alcohol consumption, while men are less likely to receive disability benefits and more likely to visit their general practitioner in the short term. Our findings provide novel evidence that health information can influence labour market outcomes through gender- and age-specific behavioural adjustments. |
| Keywords: | diabetes, diabetes screening, employment, health behaviour, undiagnosed diabetes, multi-dimensional regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I12 J16 I10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1799 |