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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Blanchflower, David (Dartmouth College); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Lepinteur, Anthony (University of Luxembourg); Piper, Alan (Leeds University Business School) |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature finds poor mental health is hump-shaped with respect to age, whilst subjective wellbeing is U-shaped. Recent cross-sectional studies indicate a change in this relationship driven by the declining mental health of the young. We contribute to this literature by re-examining the age patterns in subjective wellbeing and illbeing for individuals in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden). We do so with fifteen waves of the COME-HERE (CH) panel survey for 2020-2025 plus data from the Global Minds (GM) surveys of 2020-2026 for the same countries. We show that wellbeing rises and illbeing declines in a roughly monotonic fashion with age. This is found both with cross-section data from the CH and GM data, and from longitudinal plots of person fixed effects by age in the CH data. |
| Keywords: | subjective wellbeing, mental health, age, despair, panel data |
| JEL: | I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18803 |
| By: | Conti, Gabriella; Ginja, Rita; Persson, Petra; Willage, Barton |
| Abstract: | The motherhood penalty is well-documented, but what happens at the other end of the reproductive spectrum? Menopause — a transition often marked by debilitating physical and psychological symptoms — also entails substantial costs. Using population-wide Norwegian and Swedish data and quasi-experimental methods, we show that a menopause diagnosis leads to lasting drops in earnings and employment, alongside greater reliance on social transfers. The impact is especially severe for women with lower socioeconomic status. Increasing access to menopause-related health care can help offset these losses. Our findings reveal the hidden economic toll of menopause and the potential gains from better support policies. |
| JEL: | I10 J01 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20169 |
| By: | Conti, Laura; Francesconi, Marco; Papini, Giulio; Serafinelli, Michel |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how the local labor market (LLM) responds to changes in touristic attractiveness, leveraging a unique classification of Italian localities based on their main touristic assets and aggregate trends in foreign tourists' choices in a shift-share research design. Looking at all LLMs, we find a strong positive relationship between changes in attractiveness and changes in the local tourism-related economic activity, tourism expenditure, and tourism employment, but no effect on total employment. In high-unemployment LLMs, however, we find a sizable overall employment effect and large indirect effects generated through industries related to tourism and firms in the nontradable sector. |
| Keywords: | Tourism; Unemployment; Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 J21 R12 R23 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20281 |
| By: | Christl, Michael; Sologon, Denisa M.; Montes-Viñas, Ana; Wagener, Raymond |
| Abstract: | Cross-border labour markets integrate European regions economically, but welfare analysis remains constrained by national institutional systems. This paper develops a framework for measuring disposable income, redistribution, and inequality in functionally integrated but institutionally fragmented cross-border regions. We build on the European tax-benefit model EUROMOD to incorporate cross-border taxation, social insurance coordination, and family benefit allocation, and apply it to hypothetical household scenarios for workers residing in France and Belgium and employed in Luxembourg, the core of the Greater Region. We find that the disposable income consequences of cross-border employment are substantial and vary by household type and residence country. The cross-border premium is compressed at high earnings by France's exemption-with-progression mechanism, while Belgium's full exemption lets it persist and grow across the distribution. Modelling cross-border workers under residence-country rules alone likely overstates income equality, with the bias concentrated among households with children and at the lower end of the income distribution. These findings illustrate how territorial integration and welfare fragmentation coexist within functional cross-border regions. Combining country-specific EUROMOD models through a harmonised counterfactual approach, the paper offers a replicable method for measuring disposable income in cross-border contexts, and shows that inequality measurement remains tied to national welfare institutions even where labour markets operate at a regional scale. |
| Keywords: | cross-border workers, disposable income, microsimulation, tax-benefit systems, Luxembourg, Greater Region, income inequality, regional integration |
| JEL: | J20 J38 J48 H24 H55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1790 |
| By: | Di Liberto, Adriana; Giua, Ludovica; Schivardi, Fabiano; Sideri, Marco; Sulis, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | We study how managerial practices of school principals affect student performance and aspirations. For 2011 and 2015, we merge administrative data on Italian high school students with the management quality indices of their principals, constructed using the World Management Survey methodology. The frequent principals' turnover over this period allows us to causally interpret school-fixed-effect estimates. We find that management quality positively and substantially impacts standardized math and language tests and student desire to attend college. The comparison to pooled-OLS suggests that fixed effects correct for the downward bias arising from selection of better principals into more difficult schools. |
| Keywords: | Management; School principals |
| JEL: | L2 I2 M1 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19919 |
| By: | Bertheau, Antoine; Kudlyak, Marianna; Larsen, Birthe; Bennedsen, Morten |
| Abstract: | We use a novel large-scale survey of firms, implemented in Denmark in 2021 and linked to administrative data, to study why firms lay off workers instead of cutting wages. Our questions on layoffs, wage cuts, and the link between them provide new insights into firms' strategies for adjusting labor in response to adverse shocks. We find that layoffs are more prevalent than wage cuts, but wage cuts are not rare in firms experiencing revenue reduction and were used by 15% of such firms. Employers are hesitant to cut wages in many instances because they see wage cuts as a poor substitute for layoffs. First, firms report that lowering wages triggers costs through the impact on morale and quits. Comparing these costs with potential savings from wage cuts, most employers in the survey agree that a wage reduction would not have saved jobs. Second, firms report that a crisis is an opportune time for layoffs because of lower opportunity costs of restructuring and because layoffs during a crisis are perceived by workers as more fair. We find that firms that report such opportunistic layoffs are less likely to implement wage cuts. |
| JEL: | D22 J30 J63 J23 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19940 |
| By: | Stefano Caselli, Marta Zava |
| Abstract: | This report examines household wealth composition and the design of tax-advantaged retail investment accounts in four European economies over the period 1998 to 2024. Drawing on national balance sheet data from Istat, the Office for National Statistics, INSEE and Statistics Sweden, the first part documents the allocation of household wealth between financial and nonfinancial assets, the composition of financial portfolios, and equity market participation in Italy, the United Kingdom, France and Sweden. The second part compares four retail investment instruments, namely the Italian PIR, the French PEA and PEA-PME, the Swedish ISK and the United Kingdom ISA, along the dimensions of tax treatment, contribution limits, eligible assets, holding period requirements, distribution channels and market performance. The evidence indicates that fiscal generosity is a weak predictor of household adoption. The most generously taxed instrument in the sample, the Italian PIR, records the lowest penetration at 1.5 percent of adults and 0.5 percent of household financial wealth, whereas the Swedish ISK, whose flat annual levy on portfolio value is conceptually less favourable, reaches 52.3 percent penetration and 7.8 percent of financial wealth. Adoption correlates instead with the absence of holding period requirements, breadth of the eligible investment universe, simplicity of tax computation and stability of the regime over time. The report concludes by proposing an Italian adaptation of the Swedish model, the Conto di Investimento a Tassazione Forfettaria, which replaces realisation-based capital gains taxation with an annual presumptive levy on portfolio value calculated as the European Central Bank reference rate plus one percentage point, multiplied by 30 percent. |
| Keywords: | household finance, retail investment accounts, wealth allocation, equity market participation, capital markets union, savings taxation, ISA, ISK, PEA, PIR. |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G18 G51 H24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp26280 |
| By: | Francesconi, Marco; Sonedda, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Leveraging a major Italian reform enacted in June 2012 that eroded employment protection to workers on permanent contracts, we use detailed administrative data to estimate how this reduction affected the cost of job loss. We employ a stacked event-study research design, comparing treated and untreated workers as they move from employment into nonemployment. Weakening employment protection led to additional penalties in terms of lower re-hiring earnings and lower re-employment probabilities. Heterogeneous effects of the reform deepened pre-existing divides, penalizing labor market outsiders, such as young workers, and curbing employment opportunities for individuals in poorer regions, such as the South. |
| JEL: | J63 J65 J30 J41 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20278 |
| By: | Wicht, Leonie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Dual vocational education and training (VET) plays a central role in the school-to-work transition in Germany, yet a substantial share of training contracts is terminated prematurely. Estimating the causal effects of such disruptions is challenging due to endogenous selection into dropout. This study exploits training firm closures as unexpected shocks that displace apprentices during VET. Using administrative data on the universe of German apprentices between 2008 and 2022, a matched event study design estimates the impact of displacement on employment outcomes over the subsequent eight years. The results show that displacement during VET leads to small but persistent earnings losses. Relative to non-displaced apprentices, earnings from regular employment fall by up to 780e per year (about 4.5 percent) four years after displacement and by roughly 2 percent in later years. These losses are modest compared to displacement from regular employment, consistent with strong institutional support that helps affected apprentices to continue with a new training firm and complete VET. However, apprentices without a school degree experience substantially larger and increasing earnings losses. A decomposition analysis indicates that the overall earnings losses are largely driven by substantial penalties among apprentices who drop out after displacement. In contrast, those who complete VET experience only small earnings losses, and displacement increases the risk of dropout only marginally. Overall, the findings highlight the protective role of institutional arrangements in the German VET system, while also showing that not all apprentices access or benefit from these supports equally." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien |
| JEL: | J24 J63 M53 |
| Date: | 2026–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202605 |
| By: | Ideal Syka (i6eal / Syka Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt)) |
| Abstract: | This research note uses harmonised Eurostat ICT-usage statistics to describe enterprise artificial-intelligence adoption in Germany relative to the EU-27 in 2025. The population covers enterprises with at least ten employees and self-employed persons in covered non-financial NACE activities. AI use is reported by 25.97% of German enterprises, compared with 19.95% in the EU-27, placing Germany eighth among member states. Adoption rises sharply with firm size in Germany, from 23.06% among enterprises with 10–49 employees to 56.99% among enterprises with 250 or more. Germany exceeds the EU-27 aggregate in each of eight displayed activity groups, with the largest difference in information and communication (75.38% versus 62.52%). The comparisons are descriptive, not causal. Survey flags, missing values and denominators are retained, and a reported German enterprise-definition break in 2025 limits longitudinal interpretation. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; technology adoption; firm size; sector heterogeneity; Germany; European Union; digitalisation |
| JEL: | O33 L25 M15 |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:evi:irnote:2026-01 |
| By: | Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Fanfani, Bernardo (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We study how updates in pay floors set by collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) shape the wage structure in Italy. We estimate stacked event-panel difference-indifferences models around changes of contractual minima and trace distributional impacts. Pay-floor hikes of 2.2% on average raise mean log FTE daily wages by 2.2%, but effects are near zero at the 10th percentile and stronger at the 90th, implying inequalityenhancing wage-rate responses. This asymmetry reflects both within-agreement heterogeneity, as lower-paid workers within CBAs respond less, and between-agreement heterogeneity, as low-wage CBAs exhibit weaker pass-through. Non-compliance with pay floors is higher in low-wage CBAs, thus it is a potential driver of asymmetries even if its level is not affected by wage updates. Pay-floor hikes reduce employment and days worked only among low-wage workers and only among full-time jobs, which may further contribute to the muted wage response in the lower tail through selection mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, contractual minimum wages, wage structure |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18797 |
| By: | Zuzana Gric; Simona Malovana; Dominika Ehrenbergerova |
| Abstract: | Borrower-based mortgage limits are designed to make lending safer, but they may not affect all households in the same way. We study how tighter loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income limits are associated with access to new mortgages across the income distribution. We combine household-level data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey with hand-collected information on policy actions in 17 European countries over 2008-2019. We find that middle-income households are disproportionately affected. Following tightening, they are approximately 2 percentage points less likely than households in the top income decile to obtain a first mortgage on their main residence. The pattern is driven mainly by loan-to-value tightening. Among middle-income households, the differential effect is stronger for younger households, which typically have less accumulated savings and housing equity. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based measures, distributional effects, household borrowing, macroprudential policy, household finance and consumption survey |
| JEL: | E58 D31 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2026/10 |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Using employer-employee Italian data over the period 1998-2018 we analyze the impact of the largest regularization of undocumented immigrant workers in Italy on wage, employment and mobility outcomes of natives. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of the 2002 Bossi-Fini law that unexpectedly regularized 634, 000 undocumented non-EU immigrants, with variation across firms and provinces that was not correlated with previous economic performance. We find that the policy had a small effect on the average wage of native workers and positive effects on their employment at the local labor market level. Additionally, native co-workers in firms more affected by the policy were more likely to change employers in the post-policy period. Such higher mobility resulted in a heterogeneous wage effect across switchers: workers that managed to transition towards better firms experienced wage gains in the medium- and long-run, while other workers experienced wage losses. This implied an increase in wage dispersion for natives and some losers among Italian workers. |
| Keywords: | workers, firms, immigrant regularization, local labor market |
| JEL: | F16 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12817 |
| By: | Christensen, Frederik; Wallenius, Johanna |
| Abstract: | Universal education systems are often said to promote intergenerational mobility in education. However, despite tax-financed post-secondary education and generous student aid, educational mobility in Denmark remains low. To rationalize this, we develop a structural life cycle model in which education choice depends on preferences, graduation probabilities, and parental transfers, which in turn vary by child ability and parental education. After estimating the model on Danish register data, we first disentangle the drivers of intergenerational persistence in education. Subsequently, we conduct counterfactual policy experiments to assess the potential of education policy to improve mobility. We find that increasing current subsidies has only small positive effects on educational attainment and mobility. Similarly, relaxing the student debt limit has virtually no effect. Our decomposition exercises suggest that this is because the persistent transmission of ability and preference heterogeneity dominate immediate pecuniary incentives. |
| Keywords: | Inequality |
| JEL: | I22 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20124 |
| By: | Davide Martino; Francesco Zambonin; Nuve Yazgan |
| Abstract: | Europe faces a dual challenge: the climate crisis and a persistent housing crisis, both of which converge in the urgent need to renovate aging urban housing stock. While energy-efficient renovations are essential to meet EU carbon neutrality targets by 2050, they risk triggering “renovictions”, the displacement of vulnerable residents due to rising rents and property values. This policy study shows how these renovictions can be avoided. We summarise scientific literature and survey best practices and cautionary tales from three cities across Europe: Amsterdam, Athens, and Paris. These are three large capitals, with historic centres protected by heritage status, and facing the pressure of (over)tourism. We recommend that tenants should not pay for renovations, and identify alternative sources of funding for different types of housing. The overall principle is that any money entering the housing sector should remain in the housing sector. Our recommendations are intended for policymakers at the local and European level. Local administrations should learn from each other, replicating successful policies like one-stop-shops to accompany renovations. The EU should use the policy levers that it already has to coordinate and facilitate policies at local level, namely by simplifying existing funding options or setting up publicly backed loan guarantees.Incremental, locally adapted policies—supported by EU coordination—are essential to ensure that the green transition in housing does not come at the expense of social justice. Policymakers must act to make European cities both sustainable and inclusive for all residents. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/412228 |
| By: | Ferrando, Annalisa; Lamboglia, Sara; Rariga, Judit; Schmidt, Maurice |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies among euro area firms, using harmonised firm-level data from two dedicated modules of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) conducted in June and December 2025. Based on responses from around 6, 000 firms across 12 euro area countries, the study examines AI adoption rates, drivers, barriers and economic implications. The findings suggest that AI diffusion among euro area firms is progressing rapidly but unevenly, with significant variation across countries and firm characteristics. Approximately 70% of firms report some level of AI use, but only 7% classify their adoption as significant. Adoption is highest in the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, and lowest in Italy and Ireland. Larger and younger firms, particularly in technology-intensive sectors, are leading adopters. Firms identify expected improvements in business processes as the main driver of adoption, while key barriers include skill shortages, data privacy concerns and system incompatibilities. Current AI use and investment are primarily financed through internal funds, complemented by grants and subsidised bank loans. AI adoption is positively associated with firm productivity, turnover growth, fixed investment and own selling price expectations, particularly among intensive users. Survey data show no evidence yet of aggregate labour shedding; instead, AI adoption is positively associated with employment growth. However, firms’ inflation expectations appear largely unaffected by current AI use. JEL Classification: C93, D22, E31, L25, O33 |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, firm-level survey data, inflation expectations, productivity |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2026395 |
| By: | D'Alessandro, Francesco; Santarelli, Enrico; Vivarelli, Marco |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional technological relatedness and local AI knowledge influence regional innovative activity, as measured by patenting activity. Using a novel three-way longitudinal dataset (670 four-digit CPC classes × 302 NUTS-2 regions × nine four-year periods, 1986-2021) and leveraging a deep learning-based identification of AI patents, we show that two broad mechanisms operate in parallel. First, in accordance with the extant literature, technologies that are cognitively close to a region's existing patent portfolio enjoy higher patenting activity, confirming that relatedness remains a strong and persistent predictor of innovative output. Second, local AI endowments are positively associated with patenting across technological fields, even after conditioning on relatedness, indicating that AI plays an enabling and cross-cutting role in a given regional innovation system. Moreover, the interaction between relatedness and AI turns out to be negative and statistically significant, implying that AI attenuates the extent to which local innovative efforts depend on the technology's proximity to the regional portfolio. In sum, AI appears to enhance overall local innovative activity while reducing its reliance on pre-existing regional knowledge structures. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, AI, technological change, regional innovation, relatedness |
| JEL: | O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1792 |
| By: | Gehrsitz, Markus (University of Strathclyde); Traxler, Christian (Hertie School) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how vehicle taxation shapes fleet exit. We exploit Germany's 2008/9 circulation tax reform, which generated a sharp discontinuity in annual tax liabilities at a registration cutoff date. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of registered vehicles during the second half of 2008, we apply a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the effect of annual circulation taxes on permanent deregistrations. A 10 percent higher tax increases the share of deregistered vehicles after six years by about 2.8 percent. Duration analyses exploiting within-model variation in taxes yield closely consistent estimates. The effect seems to be mainly driven by exports rather than vehicle retirement. |
| Keywords: | vehicle taxation, circulation tax, deregistrations, difference-in-discontinuities |
| JEL: | H23 R48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18807 |
| By: | Markus Gehrsitz; Christian Traxler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how vehicle taxation shapes fleet exit. We exploit Germany's 2008/9 circulation tax reform, which generated a sharp discontinuity in annual tax liabilities at a registration cutoff date. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of registered vehicles during the second half of 2008, we apply a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the effect of annual circulation taxes on permanent deregistrations. A 10 percent higher tax increases the share of deregistered vehicles after six years by about 2.8 percent. Duration analyses exploiting within-model variation in taxes yield closely consistent estimates. The effect seems to be mainly driven by exports rather than vehicle retirement. |
| Keywords: | vehicle taxation, circulation tax, deregistrations |
| JEL: | H23 R48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12815 |
| By: | Pascal Heß (Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and IZA@LISER); Armando Miano (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | We study how employed workers perceive and respond to opportunities for occupational mobility. Using a large-scale survey of 4, 500 full-time workers in Germany, linked with administrative employment data, we measure workers’ beliefs about the transferability of their skills, the similarity of alternative occupations to theirs, the benefits— potential earnings—and costs—retraining and licensing requirements—of moving to other occupations. We also capture respondents’ beliefs about exposure of their own and alternative occupations to automation and AI. The results reveal that workers are imperfectly informed about opportunities in other occupations: they systematically underestimate task similarity and wages in alternative occupations while overestimating the need for retraining or licensing. These misperceptions are more severe for bluecollar workers and for workers in commercial and administrative occupations, and are strongly negatively correlated with intentions to seek jobs in other occupations. Randomized information treatments providing data on wages, retraining requirements, and displacement risk meaningfully alter workers’ beliefs and mobility intentions, even nine months after the intervention. |
| Keywords: | Occupational mobility, Information frictions, Job search, Beliefs, Automation, AI. |
| JEL: | J01 J24 J62 D91 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:792 |
| By: | Lassnigg, Lorenz (Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) Vienna); Benke, Magdolna (University of Debrecen (CHERD)); Deitmer, Ludger (University of Bremen, Institute technology and education (ITB)) |
| Abstract: | The contribution builds on previous analyses of problems in vocational education and training (VET) governance in different countries, with established dual apprenticeship systems (Austria, Germany) and newly emerging apprenticeship systems (Italy, Hungary). On background of qualitative analyses of key problems in the selected countries the main governance problems were identified and compared. A common ground for all cases is the defense or establishment of a collective skill formation systems build around the model of dual apprenticeship that has become a main proposal in international policy making. This presentation takes a deeper look at the issues of control in the particularly complex governance systems of dual apprenticeship. The theoretical perspective of historical institutionalism as well as much empirical research about the political attempts of transfer of dual apprenticeship systems has emphasized the multitude of included actors with different, and to some part conflicting, interests that are consequently in volved in much activity of negotiation and conflict resolution. We expect that the politics of control in the current wave of the Global Educational Reform Movement (GERM) cannot be easily established in collective skill formation systems. Moreover, the drive towards privatization can only partly affect this kind of system. On the one hand training enterprises are main private actors; on the other hand, collective skill formation can only work effectively if it is embedded in corporatist structures of interest and conflict resolution supported by the state. So, the political attempts toward the international and European spread of the dual apprenticeship system can be seen to some part as an attempt towards privatization by embedding the enterprise sector in the skills formation system; however, because of its collective aspect, privatization can only be limited. Basically, we use our previous analyses of governance problems, mainly case studies on national level, to reflect on the limits of establishing the newly emerging practices of control. So, we give mainly a new focused interpretation of our material. Main conclusions are that the relation of governing and control works precariously in all cases; in two of the cases (Germany, Hungary) strongly established mechanisms of (central) control turn out as counterproductive, as the practices and initiative of local actors are damaged by too much control; in the other two cases (Austria, Italy) the attempts to establish stronger political control over the development of the system have failed due to the complexity of the governing structures that eluded the attempts of establishing control. |
| Keywords: | governance, vocational education and training, apprenticeship, centralization, localization, responsibility |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsdps:number4 |
| By: | Arenas, Andreu (University of Barcelona (IEB, IPERG)); Bosch, Marc (Ivà lua); Frias, Nerea (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of work from home (WFH) on public-sector productivity by evaluating a mandatory return-to-office (RTO) policy in the Catalan judiciary. Leveraging cross-court variation in pre-mandate WFH intensity, difference-in-differences estimates show that terminating WFH reduced procedural output by 5.6 percent, with no offsetting changes in document quality or absenteeism. Evidence from a multi-stakeholder survey suggests a multitasking reallocation: filing tasks are performed on a digital platform and become easier under WFH, whereas coordination with lawyers is synchronous and harder to monitor. WFH thus shifted effort toward filing tasks and away from coordination. Perceived impacts follow a gradient: case managers and supervisors, who benefit from bureaucratic efficiency, are positive about WFH, while lawyers, who depend on service coordination, are clearly negative. |
| Keywords: | WFH, public-sector productivity, multitasking, judiciary |
| JEL: | J22 J45 M54 D73 H83 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18795 |
| By: | Casado, Alejandro; Martinez-Miera, David |
| Abstract: | We document the geographical and sectoral specialization of banks' lending activities using comprehensive data on the universe of loans to corporate borrowers in Spain. Our analysis highlights how specific sources of specialization are more relevant for evaluating different types of borrowers. Specifically, loans to micro and small firms exhibit reduced probabilities of non-performance in geographical markets where banks specialize, whereas loans to medium and large firms experience lower non-performance in sectors in which banks specialize. Crucially, we provide the first evidence of a direct link between bank specialization and enhanced banks' private information by leveraging confidential data on banks’ private risk assessments reported to regulators. We corroborate our findings by analyzing the relevance of relationship lending, a well-established proxy for firm-specific private information. |
| JEL: | D82 E58 G21 G32 L10 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20033 |
| By: | Canessa, Stella (LMU Munich); Dahl, Gordon (University of California, San Diego); Hasselqvist, Anna (DIW Berlin); Meghir, Costas (Yale University); Niknami, Susan (SOFI, Stockholm University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University); Rainer, Helmut (LMU Munich); Rosenqvist, Olof (IFAU, Uppsala University); Xiao, Pengpeng (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | Divorce reshapes family life, yet little is known about one of its most consequential features: the allocation of child custody. We study the impact of joint versus sole custody on both parents and children using rich administrative data from Sweden linked to over 25 years of newly-collected court custody rulings. To address selection concerns, we exploit random assignment of custody disputes to judges who differ sharply in their propensity to grant joint custody. For fathers, joint custody substantially raises earnings and improves mental health, consistent with sustained paternal involvement enhancing labor market attachment and psychological well-being. In contrast, there are no measurable labor market or mental health effects for mothers. Turning to children, joint custody increases standardized test scores and school quality without affecting mental health out comes. Joint custody increases fathers’ chances of remarriage, keeps separated parents in closer geographic proximity, and has no effect on intimate partner violence allegations against either partner. These findings inform longstanding debates over the role of child custody in shaping post-divorce family life. |
| Keywords: | child custody, divorce |
| JEL: | J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18802 |
| By: | Riccarda Rosenball (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of export entry on the within-firm gender wage gap. Existing studies provide mixed evidence on this relationship. I show that part of this inconsistency reflects how the standard worker-level empirical approach aggregates firm-level treatment effects. When linked employer-employee data are used to estimate effects that operates at the firm level, ordinary least squares (OLS) does not recover a simple average across firms. Instead, firms receive implicit OLS weights that are proportional to the number of worker observations they contribute, giving disproportionate influence to large firms. Applying the standard empirical approach on German data, I estimate that export entry reduces the within-firm gender wage gap by approximately 1.2 percentage points. However, this average effect disappears once the estimation is reweighted by inverse firm size, thereby removing the mechanical firm-size component of the implicit OLS weights. The apparent reduction in the gender wage gap is therefore driven by a small number of large exporters rather than representing a general pattern across firms. The paper highlights an important issue that arises whenever individual-level data are used to estimate treatment effects operating at the group level: in the presence of heterogeneous group-level effects, OLS estimates reflect implicit weighting schemes rather than simple averages across groups. Recognizing these implicit weighting structures is therefore essential for interpreting empirical estimates and drawing policy conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Gender Wage Gap, Exporting Firms, Linked Employer-Employee Data, Heterogenous Effects |
| JEL: | F16 J16 J70 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-14 |
| By: | Duygu Buyukyazici (LSE - Department of Geography & Environment - London School of Economics and Political Science - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Olivier Brossard (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville); Ron Boschma (Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | The transition towards a circular economy (CE) represents not only an economic shift but also a profound social and institutional transformation that redefines production, consumption, and policy. This study provides the first macro-level empirical assessment of the CE transition across European regions over the last two decades. It then examines how regional regulative, normative, and cultural–cognitive institutions shape regional CE performance, while also accounting for key confounding factors, including EU cohesion funds, regional autonomy, and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP). The results reveal strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity, as well as distinct effects across institutional dimensions. Regulative institutions exhibit the most consistent positive association across and within countries. Normative institutions matter most within major regions, while cultural–cognitive institutions provide more modest support for CE efforts. Importantly, the combination of all institutional pillars is associated with the largest gains in circularity. EU cohesion funds significantly support CE progress, while the post-2015 results suggest that the CEAP reshaped the relative importance of institutional pillars. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated institutional frameworks and targeted policy support in advancing the regional CE transition. |
| Keywords: | Circular economy, Circular transition, Institutions, Sustainability, Regions |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05664661 |
| By: | Ahlvik, Lassi; Kaariaho, Tuomas; Liski, Matti; Vehviläinen, Iivo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies household responses to a sharp energy price increase. Using Finnish household-level microdata from the 2022 European Energy Crisis, we exploit quasi-random contract expiration dates to identify adjustments across key margins: energy use, earnings, financial distress, and residual consumption. High- and middle-income households primarily reduce electricity use and modestly increase earnings, whereas low-income groups lack these adjustment channels, facing rising defaults and cutbacks in other spending. Households with an anticipation period adjust electricity use in advance, softening the impacts of the price shock. We apply these results to quantify the incidence of a hypothetical carbon price. |
| JEL: | H23 Q41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19972 |
| By: | Robbie Maris (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Tammy Campbell (Education Policy Institute); Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | It is a widely recognised problem that vocational education and training (VET) is stigmatised around the world. This stigma affects student choices, life satisfaction and the provision of skills, and is of growing concern to policymakers and researchers. Prior work suggests these attitudes are determined, in-part, by four closely related mechanisms: perceptions of quality, information and awareness of VET, direct and indirect experience and social class. Drawing on theories of institutional skill formation and educational stratification, we examine how these mechanisms are associated with negative attitudes towards VET and how their associations vary across European systems. We show that perceptions of quality explain a large amount of the variation in attitudes towards VET. We find significant variation in stigma by social class, even after accounting for differences in the perceived quality of VET. Individuals from the upper and middle classes are significantly more likely to stigmatise VET than respondents from the working class. There is considerable heterogeneity across countries and this is driven in-part by the type of VET system they have. Countries with stronger links between VET and employers tend to have more positive attitudes and exposure to these types of systems (through experience and other information sources) could improve perceptions. These results have important implications for policy and future research, pointing to key areas of focus for improving the social perceptions of VET around the world. |
| Keywords: | stigma, social norms, vocational education, survey |
| JEL: | I21 I23 D83 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:26-07 |
| By: | Léonard Moulin; Priya Maurya |
| Abstract: | Whether private schools raise achievement or reflect selection remains an open question. Using a national panel of 15, 188 French children followed from first grade to the end of primary school, with standardized mathematics and French assessments at both points, we estimate the effect of attending a publicly funded private school throughout primary school. Private-school students outperform their public-school peers at both school entry and the end of primary school. We compare three complementary identification strategies: a value-added specification controlling for baseline achievement and family background, an instrumental-variables strategy exploiting local private-school supply, and within-student comparisons of sector switchers. Accounting for selection eliminates the French advantage and reduces the mathematics advantage by about three quarters, leaving an estimated effect of 0.080 standard deviations. The value-added and instrumental-variable estimates point to the same conclusion, with the former estimated much more precisely. Sector switchers reveal a distinct selection pattern: more advantaged families move initially lower-achieving children into the private sector, and these children finish primary school ahead of comparable public-school students. The only consistent exception arises in large urban markets, where mathematics effects remain positive across specifications, although these are also the settings in which both admissions discretion and potential threats to the instrumental-variable strategy are likely to be greatest. Overall, most of the observed private-school advantage reflects selection rather than school effectiveness, although effects may differ across local education markets. |
| Keywords: | Private schools, Primary education, Student achievement, School choice, Panel data, France, ECOLE / SCHOOLS, REUSSITE SCOLAIRE / EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT, ENSEIGNEMENT PRIMAIRE / PRIMARY EDUCATION, ENSEIGNEMENT PRIVE / PRIVATE EDUCATION, FRANCE / FRANCE, ENSEIGNEMENT PUBLIC / PUBLIC EDUCATION |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:t78b1p8bjehto0i1dryp |
| By: | Oliver Skultety (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jan Zalman (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the capitalization of property taxes into housing prices by exploiting a unique institutional setting. We utilize a nationwide reform that raised the statutory base rate of the property tax by 80% while simultaneously restricting the fiscal instruments municipalities could use to mitigate the hike. Exploiting a population-based discontinuity in tax rates, we deploy a difference-in-discontinuities design to jointly identify municipal tax-setting behavior and asset price capitalization. We show that prior to the reform, municipalities aggressively used local coefficients to offset statutory rates. Following the reform, however, local governments failed to utilize their remaining discretionary tools to offset the tax increase, leaving residents with a higher effective tax burden. Despite this substantial fiscal shock, we find no evidence that the resulting tax wedge is capitalized into housing prices. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for endogenous municipal responses to nationwide policy shocks is vital for accurately evaluating the economic incidence of property taxation. |
| Keywords: | Property tax, municipal tax-setting, tax competition, capitalization |
| JEL: | H71 H73 H22 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_21 |
| By: | Christos Antonios Statheas; Iacovos Sterghides; Marios Zachariadis |
| Abstract: | We use inflation expectations survey data for households across the euro-area from 2004:1 to 2025:2 to construct two direct measures of inattention: one based on individual perception errors about current inflation, and a second based on individuals who do not know the current inflation rate. We find that the heterogeneity of the impact of aggregate noise across education levels is significantly more evident for perception errors as compared to the second measure. Importantly, perception-errors-based inattention declines with individuals’ early lifetime inflation experience and rises with recent experience. By contrast, the measure based on those who don’t know the current inflation rate does not respond systematically to households’ lifetime inflation experiences across these countries. We also find that inattention as measured by current inflation perception errors is lower in most of these euro-area economies after the arrival of extreme adverse shocks and for individuals with ‘greater skin in the game’, but not according to the second measure which does not exhibit as clear a pattern across countries. Relating these measures to forecast errors, we show that while higher perception errors relate to over-prediction of the future inflation rate and higher inflation forecast inaccuracy, the opposite is true for the measure based on those who don’t know the current inflation rate due to compositional effects unrelated to inattention. Unlike the latter, perception errors systematically produce results in line with economic theory. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; lifetime experience; forecast errors; behavioral; belief heterogeneity; Central Bank communication. |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E70 |
| Date: | 2026–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:06-2025 |
| By: | Hochmuth, Brigitte; Merz, Monika; Prettenthaler, Fabian |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how individual risk attitudes shape occupational choice and wealth accumulation. Using self-reported individual risk preferences from the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), we estimate that an increase in risk tolerance raises the probability of a worker transitioning to self-employment. We also develop a life-cycle model of occupational choice with Epstein-Zin preferences and heterogeneous risk attitudes to study how risk aversion interacts with entrepreneurial ability and wealth in determining entry into self-employment and its aggregate implications. Counterfactual simulations show that increasing business risk reduces entry but improves selection by entrepreneurial skills. In contrast, Germany’s “1-Euro GmbH†reform of 2008 weakened the role of risk tolerance for entry and increased participation by more risk-averse individuals. |
| Keywords: | Recursive utility |
| JEL: | E21 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20286 |
| By: | Marina Gómez-García (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal impact of air pollution on housing prices in Madrid, a large European city with relatively high and persistent nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and a home ownership rate of around 70%. Using location-specific data on pollution levels and the universe of housing transactions, my estimation controls for house and neighborhood characteristics, year and neighborhood fixed effects, a bad weather index and a set of time-varying neighborhood characteristics. To address endogeneity concerns, I make use of quasi-experimental variation in nitrogen dioxide levels resulting from temperature inversions. The results suggest that a 10% increase in air pollution reduces housing prices by 0.65% (around €1, 327 for the average house). This effect is robust to alternative measures of air pollution, different bad weather indices and the inclusion of seasonality dummies, and is highly non-linear, being larger for higher levels of pollution. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, housing market, valuation of environmental effects |
| JEL: | Q53 R31 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2624e |
| By: | Daryn Zholdasbay |
| Abstract: | This thesis examines how social partners utilize modern algorithmic management systems as a new policy issue to increase their participation in policymaking within different industrial relations systems. The thesis focuses on Slovakia and Italy, two EU Member States subject to the same regulatory framework through the AI Act, but belonging to different industrial relations regimes. Building on Scharpf’s actor-centered institutionalism and the conceptualization of industrial relations systems, the thesis analyzes how institutional settings, actor strategies, actor constellations, modes of interaction, and participation channels shape social partner participation. The research is based on a comparative qualitative case study using semi-structured interviews with trade union and employer organization representatives at national and sectoral levels. The findings show that the AI Act created regulatory space for social partner participation, as it sets minimum standards that can be further developed by Member States and through collective agreements. However, this space was utilized differently in the two cases. In Italy, social partners used AI/AM systems more actively through participation channels, consultations, and collective bargaining. In Slovakia, participation remained more limited, mostly consultative, and often constrained by unilateral employer action, although a new participation channel was created. The thesis argues that new policy issues do not automatically increase participation in policymaking. They can create opportunities, but participation depends on the industrial relations system, the strength of social partners, the role of the state, and the salience of the issue for social partners and their members. The thesis contributes to debates on AI governance, industrial relations, and participatory policymaking by showing how AI/AM systems can become a resource for social partners to strengthen their role in policymaking. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:72 |
| By: | Jarkko Harju; Ida Kankaanranta; Kaisa Kotakorpi |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of taxi market deregulation in Finland, which removed price controls and lowered barriers to entry. The reform led to a surge in firm entry and a modest increase in exit, indicating substantial changes in market structure. Average taxi prices increased slightly according to price indices, while monthly firm-level reported sales and VAT declined by over 10 percent. Operating costs and mileage remained largely unchanged, suggesting limited demand responses. These findings point to increased tax evasion following deregulation. Consistent with this interpretation, we document a small rise in property crime, with no effects on other criminal offenses. |
| Keywords: | taxi market, deregulation, prices, sales, mileage, exit, entry, tax evasion, crime |
| JEL: | L52 L91 L98 H26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12819 |
| By: | Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Hessami, Zohal |
| Abstract: | This project aimed to make two major contributions. First, we aimed to hand collect hitherto unavailable data on the traits and electoral performance of hundreds of thousands of candidates competing for local council seats in three German states: Bavaria, Hesse, and Saxony. Second, relying on this data, we intended to study the importance of political selection at the local level in Germany. We found that in Bavaria, an additional female councilor significantly increases the provision of child care spots. The marginal effect of a female councilor is strongest when there are few other women represented in a local council. This implies that having "one seat at the table" might already be sufficient to influence policy choices. We also found that one important reason for the under-representation of women in politics is that women are less likely to recontest than men, and established that the size of this recontest gap depends on institutional constraints. For example, women are more likely to recontest in municipalities where council meetings take place late in the evening, when household chores have been completed. Another important finding was that in the 2020 local council elections in Bavaria, which were held under the looming threat of the Covid-19 pandemic, incumbency advantages shrunk more strongly in municipalities where the pandemic was arguably more salient at the time of the election. This suggests that while democracies might not be able to react as decisively as autocracies, they have unique advantages, too. In particular, they are able to quickly change the selection of leaders and elect new politicians to office who are arguably better suited to deal with looming crises. We also established that the occupational background of politicians does not matter for their performance while in office. More specifically, mayors who have a background in public administration are not more likely to attract grants to their municipality than other mayors. This finding is timely, given frequent calls for public offices, such as ministerships, to be held by politicians with professional experience in the relevant policy domain. We show that professional experience is not necessarily useful to succeed in public office. Finally, we found that in local elections across Saxony, voters elect candidates of the AfD - Germany's main populist party - not because of their personal traits but rather due to the AfD's party brand. This is an important finding given the common belief that local elections are candidate-centric and fought over local issues. It implies that with the rise of populist parties, the nature of local politics is changing. |
| Abstract: | In diesem Projekt haben wir zwei primäre Ziele verfolgt. Zum einen wollten wir bislang nicht verfügbare Daten zu den Charakteristiken und dem Wahlerfolg von Hunderttausenden Kandidaten bei Gemeinderatswahlen in Bayern, Hessen und Sachsen erheben. Zum zweiten wollten wir mit diesen Daten die politische Selektion auf der Gemeindeebene untersuchen. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass eine zusätzliche Gemeinderätin zu einem schnelleren Ausbau der Kinderbetreuung führt. Dies legt nahe, dass weibliche Amtsträger politische Gremien so beeinflussen können, dass die Politik dieser Gremien die Interessen von Frauen stärker berücksichtigt. Der zusätzliche Effekt einer Gemeinderätin ist dort am stärksten, wo nur wenige andere Frauen im Gemeinderat vertreten sind. Insgesamt legen diese Ergebnisse nahe, dass es bereits ausreicht, "einen Platz am Tisch" zu haben, um politische Entscheidungen zu beinflussen- es ist nicht unbedingt notwendig, dass eine weitere Amtsträgerin vorhandene Mehrheiten kippt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen weiterhin, dass Frauen weniger häufig als Männer bei der nächsten Wahl wiederantreten Dieser Recontest Gap ist augenscheinlich ein wichtiger Grund für die Unterrepräsentation von Frauen in der Politik. Die Größe des Recontest Gaps hängt von institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen ab. Beispielsweise treten Frauen in denjenigen Gemeinden öfter wieder an, in denen Gemeinderatssitzungen spät stattfinden, vermutlich weil dann familiäre Verpflichtungen bereits erledigt sind. Ein weitere Erkenntnis ist, dass bei den Kommunalwahlen in Bayern im Jahr 2020, die unter der unmittelbaren Bedrohung der Covid-19 Pandemie stattfanden, der Amtsbonus der Amtsinhaber in den Gemeinden stärker abnahm, in denen die wahrgenommen Bedrohung der Pandemie zum Zeitpunkt der Wahl plausiblerweise größer war. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass Demokratien zwar möglicherweise auf Krisen nicht so schnell reagieren können wie Autokroatien, aber dafür andere Vorteile haben. Insbesondere sind sie augenscheinlich in der Lage, die Selektion von Amtsträgern schnell zu ändern. Weiterhin haben wir festgestellt, dass Bürgermeister, die vor ihrer Wahl in der öffentlichen Verwaltung tätig waren, keine höheren Fördermittel (Investitionstransfers) für ihre Gemeinde einwerben als Bürgermeister, die einen anderen beruflichen Hintergrund hatten. Diese Erkenntnis ist für öffentliche Debatten relevant. Es wird häufig gefordert, dass öffentliche Ämter, beispielsweise Ministerposten, von Politikern mit Berufserfahrung im jeweiligen Politikbereich besetzt werden sollten. Wir zeigen, dass Berufserfahrung nicht unbedingt notwendig ist, um in einem öffentlichen Amt erfolgreich zu sein. Schließlich legen unsere Ergebnisse nahe, dass Wähler bei Gemeinderatswahlen Kandidaten der AfD - Deutschlands erfolgreichste "populistische" Partei - nicht aufgrund der persönlichen Eigenschaften der Kandidaten, sondern aufgrund der Beliebtheit der Partei wählen. Dies ist angesichts der weit verbreiteten Annahme, dass lokale Wahlen kandidatenzentriert sind und über lokale Themen geführt werden, eine wichtige Feststellung. Sie impliziert unter anderem, dass mit dem Aufstieg populistischer Parteien die Natur lokaler Politik sich möglicherweise verändert. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:342378 |
| By: | Alexander Bertermann |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies adolescence as a formative period in the development of time preferences. Using data from 80, 000 individuals in 76 countries, I exploit within-country, cross-cohort variation in exposure to aggregate instability—natural disasters, inflation crises, and sovereign defaults. Instability experienced between ages 13 and 17 reduces long-run patience, whereas comparable shocks experienced before or after this developmental stage show no detectable effects. Evidence from second-generation immigrants in Germany reveals similar age-specific effects when origin-country instability is transmitted only indirectly through family networks, suggesting that the mechanism operates through psychological rather than material channels. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_428 |
| By: | Krieger, Bastian; Steines, Leon; Bangert, Hendrik Hermann; Glas, Andreas; Eßig, Michael |
| Abstract: | Public organizations rely on open innovation to maintain and improve public service performance. Suppliers are a key source of such innovation. Public contracting authorities act as the interface between public organizations and supply markets, shaping whether supplier innovations are identified, rewarded, and selected. Combining representative firm-level data from the German Community Innovation Survey with official tender-level data from the Tenders Electronic Daily database, we construct firms' public procurement award histories between 2006 and 2023. We distinguish between four tender categories that differ by geographic scope (domestic versus international) and award mechanism (price-based versus criteria-based). We further differentiate between "real outsiders" and "pseudo-outsiders" based on experience supplying public markets. Using multivariate probit models, we examine how different degrees of innovation novelty are associated with supplier selection across tender categories and outsider status. Three findings emerge. i) Suppliers' category-specific procurement experience increases the likelihood of subsequent selection, indicating rigidity in public procurement markets. ii) Price-based tenders are associated with firm-level novelties, whereas criteria-based tenders are associated with market-specific novelties. iii) These innovation advantages are concentrated among "real outsiders" and largely disappear for "pseudo-outsiders", for whom prior category-specific procurement experience becomes the main predictor of subsequent selection. |
| Keywords: | Public procurement, open innovation, supply markets, tender design, competition |
| JEL: | H57 O36 D40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341998 |
| By: | Pardy, Martina; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how trade influences intra-regional income inequality across Europe’s NUTS-2 regions. Drawing on newly compiled datasets capturing both inter-regional trade and local-level inequality for all EU member states plus the UK, we employ an econometric framework —complete with Instrumental Variable estimations and robust sensitivity analyses— to gauge the impact of trade on regional interpersonal inequality. In addition to examining aggregate trade, we distinguish between various trade channels, including exchanges within the EU versus those with the rest of the world, links to neighbouring regions versus non-neighbours, and domestic versus international flows. Our findings reveal that higher levels of trade are positively associated with changes in regional income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient. Crucially, this link depends on trading partners: trade within a single country, within the EU, and with non-neighbouring regions correlates with rising inequality, whereas international trade, trade with non-EU partners, or trade with neighbouring regions shows no statistically significant effect. These conclusions withstand a battery of robustness checks, including new control variables and a population-weighted approach, further underscoring the role that particular types of trade play in shaping regional income disparities. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Europe |
| JEL: | D63 F14 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20255 |
| By: | Levell, Peter; O'Connell, Martin; Smith, Kate |
| Abstract: | Aggregate price shocks can lead to significant inequality in losses both across and within income groups. This creates a trade-off between supporting households through subsidies, which target those most affected but introduce inefficiencies, and transfers, which are less distortionary but harder to target precisely. We develop a framework to quantify this trade-off, using rich panel data on energy spending and income, alongside price and policy variation from the 2022-23 European Energy Crisis. We show that, in the absence of policy intervention, average household welfare losses would have been equivalent to 6% of income, with some households facing much larger losses. A combination of an energy price subsidy and universal transfers reduced both the mean and dispersion of household losses but incurred efficiency costs equivalent to 12% of the total funds spent on the relief package. Under a range of social preferences, better targeted transfers would have reduced the optimal subsidy rate, though not eliminated it entirely. |
| Keywords: | Energy prices; Subsidies; Targeting support; Household energy demand |
| JEL: | D12 D31 D61 H20 H31 H53 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19939 |
| By: | Griebenow, Nils Darius |
| Abstract: | Apart from being an obvious and significant environmental problem, climate change poses a unique set of economic problems due to the intertemporal nature of those who are responsible for producing emissions, and those who bear the costs down the road. Market-based solutions can facilitate the internalization of these costs associated to climate change. One such solution came in the form of the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2005. This dissertation investigates the economic effects of this policy across three chapters based on empirical investigations. Chapter 3 explores firm-level economic effects of ETS regulation in Spain, echoing results from other studies which found positive outcomes in employment, revenues, and fixed assets, even in a credit-constrained and structurally-challenged economy. Chapter 4 looks at the issue of over-allocation of emissions certificates during Phase 2 of the ETS using a sector-based quasi-natural experiment. Using a new definition of the concept, we find evidence for substantial over-allocation amongst energy producers. Lastly, Chapter 5 investigates both economic and electoral effects of policy stringency at the regional level across Europe. Positive economic effects, as well as positive electoral effects for green parties in national elections, are found to be caused by higher ETS stringency, although the latter is not mediated by the former. Overall, the findings suggest that concerns regarding environmental policy in the form of negative economic effects and political backlash are unsubstantiated in the case of the ETS, while also identifying design flaws which may have impacted earlier stages of the scheme. |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:160845 |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (Universitat Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.); Cecilio Tamarit (University of Valencia, INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II. Avenida dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain.); Iryna Viazmikina (University Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of international migration to the European Union using bilateral migration stocks from 99 origin countries to 19 EU destinations over the period 2000–2017. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging within a high-dimensional gravity framework, jointly evaluating economic, demographic, institutional, trade, policy, and proximity-based determinants under model uncertainty. We account for the multilateral nature of migration decisions by combining high-dimensional fixed effects with common correlated effects while preserving identification. Our results identify a stable core of migration drivers, together with systematic heterogeneity across origin countries by income level. These findings offer new evidence-based guidance for EU migration and integration policies. |
| Keywords: | migrations, variable selection, high-dimensional panels, gravity |
| JEL: | F22 C55 F17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2611 |
| By: | Bick, Alexander; Dias Da Silva, António; Weißler, Marco |
| Abstract: | While employer-to-employer (E2E) transitions are by now well-documented, these data alone cannot reveal what drives mobility: who searches, why, and how search translates into transitions. Using novel panel data from the ECB and NY Fed consumer expectations surveys, we provide the first systematic cross-country analysis of on-the job search (OJS) and E2E transitions across eleven euro area countries and the U.S. Our data uniquely include direct measures of OJS and its motives (job loss expectations for precautionary, pay satisfaction for job ladder) for all workers, not just searchers. We find that OJS is widespread, making employed workers the majority of searchers, and it strongly predicts E2E transitions. Motives differ dramatically: precautionary search dominates in Europe, while the job ladder motive dominates in the U.S. OJS is highly persistent, with 40% continuing to search even after starting a new job. JEL Classification: J64, D84 |
| Keywords: | expectations, job search, labor market transitions |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263267 |
| By: | [Lukas Lehner] |
| Abstract: | This paper studies unemployed workers’ preferences for two widely debated social policy innovations often framed as rivals: a job guarantee and a basic income. It addresses how support for the two policies compares, how policy generosity shapes that support, and which groups are most supportive. Leveraging a randomized experiment in a representative survey of unemployed workers in Austria, the analysis documents broad support for both policies: consistently higher for guaranteed jobs though a majority support both policies. Increasing generosity raises support for each policy, and crossing a pay threshold above average unemployment benefits sharply increases willingness to accept guaranteed jobs. Support and willingness to participate are strongest among disadvantaged respondents, while a small socio-economically advantaged minority opposes both policies across generosity levels. The results suggest that guaranteed jobs and guaranteed income are better understood as complementary rather than opposing strategies for strengthening the welfare state in the twenty-first century. |
| Keywords: | job guarantee; universal basic income; unemployed workers; survey experiment; social policy preferences; welfare state attitudes |
| JEL: | I31 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1125 |
| By: | Abbiati, Giovanni; Battistin, Erich; Monti, Paola; Pinotti, Paolo |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a labor market integration program that fast-tracked asylum seekers into the Italian labor market through personalized job mentoring, placement assistance, and on-the-job training. Leveraging randomized assignment across reception centers and individual-level administrative records, we find effects on employment rates of 10 percentage points, or 30% over the baseline, over a 18-month period. The program also improved job quality through increased access to fixed-term and open-ended contracts. Subsidized internships were a critical pathway to transitioning participants into standard employment. Survey data indicate that these effects reflect a net increase in employment, rather than a shift from informal to formal jobs. We also document broader benefits on socioeconomic integration, including language proficiency and social networks with native Italians. |
| JEL: | C93 D04 F22 I38 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20150 |