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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Giovanna D'Adda; Simone Ferro; Tommaso Frattini; Alessio Romarri |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution; Food Delivery Riders; Absenteeism; Labor Productivity; Workplace Safety |
| JEL: | H4 J28 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:506 |
| By: | Claudio Barbieri (European Central Bank); Mattia Guerini (Università di Brescia; Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei); Mauro Napoletano (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; Sciences Po, OFCE, France; Institute of Economics, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the structure and evolution of credit growth across Italian provinces. Using an econometric approach based on Random Matrix Theory, we decompose regional credit dynamics into common and idiosyncratic components. We use a longitudinal dataset of credit at the provincial level (NUTS-3 regions) covering the period 2000–2020 and document substantial heterogeneity in the synchronization of credit growth across local economies. Our results suggest that, while aggregate credit growth is largely driven by a strong common component, substantial heterogeneity emerges across disaggregated credit categories. Household mortgage lending displays strong and persistent co-movement across provinces, whereas corporate mortgages and unsecured credit are characterized by higher dispersion and relatively weaker common dynamics. Regional divergence intensifies sharply between 2010 and 2014, coinciding with the European sovereign debt crisis, suggesting a fragmentation of local credit supply and demand. Importantly, divergence does not display any clear geographical pattern, underscoring the role of non-spatial factors in shaping regional credit dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Credit growth, Regional heterogeneity, Local credit markets, Synchronization |
| JEL: | C38 E51 G21 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-13 |
| By: | Daphné Skandalis; Arnaud Philippe |
| Abstract: | Why do women's labor earnings drop upon motherhood? We shed new light on this question by analyzing the changes in job search behavior associated with motherhood. We exploit data on the job applications sent on a popular online platform linked with administrative registers for 350, 000 involuntarily unemployed workers in France. After losing their job, mothers have a 11.7% lower probability to find a job than similar women without children and send 12.2% fewer job applications. To explore the underlying mechanisms, we analyze the timing of job applications. Unlike other women, mothers' rate of applications decreases by about 20.5% in the hours when there is no school. Moreover, the French reform that introduced school on Wednesday in 2014 led mothers to send more applications on Wednesdays. Our results highlight that childcare creates constraints on the timing of job search activities for mothers. We finally provide suggestive evidence that these constraints decrease their return-to-search, and thereby contribute to their lower application and job finding rates. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality, Motherhood, Time allocation, Job search |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26129 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments face persistent challenges in integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-mo follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and were concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of placements followed by sustained employment, consistent with improved placement quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers on contact rates or exit-to-job rates for unemployed German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no evidence of resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance—embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure—can meaningfully improve refugees’ labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration; labor market policy; job search assistance |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138000 |
| By: | Devos, Louise (Ghent University (UGent@Work, CESSMIR)); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels); Senterre, Thomas (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter)); Volral, Mélanie (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)) |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data on more than 62, 000 master’s graduates, this paper examines how gender differences in wage returns to fields of study vary by migration background and how educational specialisation contributes to the gender wage gap. We estimate wage regressions and apply a decomposition approach to separate sorting across fields from differences in pay within fields. Returns vary widely, with law, economics and management, and science yielding the highest returns, and women earning less than men within all fields, especially in high-paying ones. First-generation immigrants from developing countries obtain the lowest returns regardless of field of study, while second-generation immigrants approach but do not fully match natives. Fields of study explain a substantial share of gender wage inequality among natives and second-generation immigrants, whereas among first-generation immigrants broader wage disadvantages dominate. Results further vary with the number of parents originating from developing countries and with age at arrival. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, first- and second-generation immigrants, field of study, employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18640 |
| By: | Gábor Kátay; Pálma Mosberger; Francesco Tucci |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the impact of the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Pro-gramme (FP7) grants on profit-oriented firms’ post-treatment performance. Using a robust quasi-experimental design and a dataset covering applicants from 46 countries, we find that FP7 grants increase firms’ sales and labour productivity by about 18%. However, there is no significant impact on employment levels, pointing to potential growth barriers that prevent firms from scaling production despite improved productivity. The effectiveness of these grants varies significantly based on factors such as financial constraints, project risk profiles, market structure, and the innovation environment. Smaller, less productive firms with tighter financial constraints in technology-intensive sectors operating in concentrated markets and favourable innovation environments, particularly those undertaking longer and riskier projects, tend to benefit more. |
| JEL: | C31 G28 H57 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:238 |
| By: | Bornukova Kateryna (European Commission - JRC); Depoortere Arne (European Commission - JRC); Leventi Chrysa (European Commission - JRC); Manso Luis (European Commission - JRC); Mazzon Alberto (European Commission - JRC); Papini Andrea |
| Abstract: | Nearly one in five people in the EU was at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2024. The European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) set the target of lifting 15 million people out of poverty and social exclusion by 2030. In this analysis, prepared in support of the European Commission's Anti-Poverty Strategy, we use EUROMOD to simulate the individual and joint impact of minimum income reform, minimum wage increases, and employment expansion on poverty and social exclusion across all EU Member States. Using 2024 as a baseline, we construct counterfactual scenarios for 2030, and draw three main conclusions. First, a reform package combining the three instruments, the so-called implementation scenario, would surpass the EPSR target and lift 18.5 million people out of poverty and social exclusion. An acceleration scenario, extending minimum income coverage to all households in poverty, lifts 55 million and reduces income poverty to 1.5%. Second, policy interactions are sizable: the combined effect is roughly one-fourth smaller than the sum of individual instruments, primarily because employment and wage gains raise the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. Third, even after virtually eliminating income poverty, 37 million people (8.2%) remain at risk of social exclusion, driven by persistent material deprivation and low work intensity that income and employment instruments cannot fully address. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202603 |
| By: | Nynke de Groot; Bas van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Active labor market programs targeted at older unemployed workers are often believed to be ineffective. We exploit a large-scale randomized experiment involving approximately 50, 000 older unemployed workers to evaluate an intensive job search assistance program that focuses on exploiting the social network. Participation in the program increases exits from unemployment insurance by 4.4 percentage points. Program participation reduces cumulative benefit payments by about €715, exceeding the program costs of €470. Participants compensate the reduced benefits receipt with higher earnings. We find that participants change their job search behavior according to the content of the program, and that both the trainer and the training group composition affect the program effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Randomized experiment, older unemployed workers, ALMP, job search assistance, social network |
| JEL: | C93 J14 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26132 |
| By: | Jacob Arendt; Iben Bolvig |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the effects of an employment programme for disadvantaged unemployed individuals. The programme emphasized on-the-job training and contracting the unemployed for a few paid work hours as a stepping stone into the labour market. Evaluated through a randomised controlled trial, the programme was found to accelerate transitions into part-time work. Contrary to its intention, it permanently increased the share of participants receiving disability pensions among the most disadvantaged groups. To explain this finding, we suggest that training, while enhancing productivity for some, simultaneously provided information of employability used in the assessment of disability pension eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Unemployed, Active Labour Market Policy, Disability Pension, Immigration |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J64 D61 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26131 |
| By: | Philipp Dierker (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Vegard F. Skirbekk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Gray divorce (marital dissolution after age 50) has risen across most countries, yet relatively little is known about how grandparenthood may stabilize marriages in later life. Drawing on harmonized Generations and Gender Survey data from 15 countries spanning Europe, East Asia, and Latin America (N=30, 187 parents still married at age 50), we examine whether the transition to grandparenthood is associated with a lower risk of marital dissolution. Using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with grandparent status specified as a time-varying covariate and widowhood treated as a competing risk, we find that grandparents face a substantially lower hazard of marital dissolution than those who have not yet become grandparents (adjusted HR=0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.94). This protective association persists net of birth cohort and marriage duration and is broadly consistent across the 15 national contexts examined, though with substantial cross-national variation. The elevated raw hazard of widowhood among grandparents likely reflects cohort composition rather than a direct grandparenthood effect. The protective association is directionally consistent in 13 of the 15 national contexts examined, and is strongest in contexts where filial norms and divorce stigma are more pronounced, notably in Taiwan and several Eastern European countries. |
| Keywords: | ageing, divorce, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-015 |
| By: | Mark Hellsten; Giuseppe Pulito; Sarah Schroeder |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on how automation reshapes firms' demand for skills, not only by changing the occupational composition, but also by reshaping what existing jobs require. Using matched data on firm-level automation investments and detailed job vacancy postings from Denmark, we extract multidimensional skill profiles through natural language processing and decompose changes in skill demand into within- and between-occupation components. Within-occupation adjustment is a quantitatively important margin, accounting for 14-39% of total skill demand change depending on skill type and occupational group. Drawing on a task-based framework that links automation to shifts in multiple skill types within occupations, we estimate the causal effect of automation using a staggered difference-in-differences design. The effects are heterogeneous across the occupational hierarchy: among managers and professionals, automation increases the demand for soft skills, shifting the within-occupation skill mix toward interpersonal and cognitive competencies; among production workers, adjustment operates primarily through reduced hiring rather than changes in skill requirements, while retraining intensity rises by 5 percentage points. Our findings highlight that automation operates through multiple adjustment margins, with implications for training policy and labour market resilience. |
| Keywords: | automation, skills, task content, labour demand, technological change, job vacancies, within-occupation adjustment |
| JEL: | J24 O33 M51 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26122 |
| By: | João Carlos Lopes |
| Abstract: | The great recession of 2008/2009 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis highlighted the existence of deep structural imbalances in the Eurozone: large differences of competitiveness and growth potential between its northern (core) and southern (peripheral) countries. In this paper, an input-output approach is used to study two important facets of this phenomenon, namely the nexus between current account (trade) imbalances and domestic (final) demand levels, as well as the sectoral specialization of tradable goods and services production. In the uncompetitive (current account deficit) economies of southern euro area, domestic final demand levels before the crisis were excessive and the opposite occurred in the strong, competitive economies of the north. These external imbalances were closely associated with a pattern of specialization favourable to the northern euro area countries (sectors with higher value added and more intensive technological activities). The empirical results of the paper for the period before the crisis, are based on input-output tables for several years: 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2011, available in the World Input Output Database. The northern euro area group is formed by Germany, Netherlands Finland and Ireland. The southern one is the so-called GIPS group (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain). After the (Troika) adjustment programs of 2011/2014, the external imbalances were overcome, by a strong demand compression initially and an export led orientation thereafter. This correction is shown for the Portuguese case, using 2013 and 2017 inputoutput tables for this country and a comparison is made with Germany, the reference country of the core Eurozone group. |
| Keywords: | Trade imbalances; Domestic demand; Export composition; Input-output linkages; Eurozone; Portugal. |
| JEL: | F40 C67 D57 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04162026 |
| By: | Joacim Tåg; Fredrik Heyman; Malin Gardberg; Martin Olsson |
| Abstract: | We examine how gender-based occupational sorting before the release of ChatGPT relates to predicted exposure to generative AI and its potential implications for the gender wage gap. Using Swedish administrative data, we find that women are overrepresented in occupations predicted to be more affected by generative AI. Mechanical partial-equilibrium simulations, based on hypothesized deviations from the 2021 occupational and wage distribution and incorporating predicted AI exposure and task complementarity, show that generative AI can widen the gender wage gap through existing patterns of gender-based occupational sorting. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, gender wage gap, technological change, occupational sorting, complementarity |
| JEL: | J16 J31 O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26118 |
| By: | Giordano MION (ESSEC Business School); Aminata SISSOKO (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have conducted an econometric analysis of the impacts of the Accelerator scheme of the European Innovation Council (EIC), with a particular focus on the EU Blended Finance providing for the first time grant and direct equity - quasi-equity investment, by means of a difference-in-difference framework combined with propensity score matching and using firms who obtained a Seal of Excellence as control group. Our analysis highlights a number of significant impacts of the EIC Accelerator on firm performance measures like sales, capital stock, wage bill, average wage, employment and value of deals. The analysis also highlights the payment of the EIC direct equity investment as a key root of heterogeneous impacts on firm production factors and output and the lack of a differential impact for projects related to health. |
| Keywords: | company growth, direct investment, EU investment, EIC fund, innovation, research and development, start-up |
| JEL: | O31 O33 L26 M13 G24 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-01-26-025-en-n |
| By: | Davide Cipullo; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato; Gianmario Pelleschi |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in-differences design. Using administrative data on cancer deaths spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants increases the number of cancer deaths substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In later years, wind exposure implies roughly two additional cancer deaths per municipality-year relative to unexposed municipalities equally proximate to contaminated sites. Our findings reveal a previously unmeasured health externality of organized crime. |
| Keywords: | organized crime, environmental externalities, pollution and health, state capacity, cancer mortality |
| JEL: | K42 Q53 I18 D62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12644 |
| By: | Blanc, Corin |
| Abstract: | In response to rising urban air pollution, European cities have adopted Low Emission Zones (LEZs), restricting the most polluting vehicles. While effective in improving air quality, these policies remain controversial due to concerns over fairness and acceptability. This paper examines the impact of London’s 2021 and 2023 Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansions on subjective well-being (SWB). Using panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and a staggered difference-in-differences design with individual and year fixed effects, we compare changes in life satisfaction among residents inside and outside the affected areas. We find that the 2021 expansion led to a decline in life satisfaction by approximately 0.4 points – which doubles for low-income households – with no evidence of pre-existing differential trends. We do not detect statistically significant effects within the available post-treatment window on Londoners living in the expanded zone in 2023. We explore the mechanisms driving this decline and find that the well-being loss is fundamentally mediated by car dependency and transport mode availability. While the policy increased reliance on public transport, we show that a higher accessibility to public transport reduces the well-being decline of Londoners. These findings suggest that LEZs can generate short-term welfare costs despite achieving behavioural change, highlighting the need for complementary measures to enhance social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, Air pollution, Low-emission zones, Difference-in-differences |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2601 |
| By: | Cristelli, Gabriele; Lissoni, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We study the innovation effects of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, signed by Switzerland and the European Union in 1999. We exploit a quasi-experimental setting created by Switzerland’s implementation of the treaty, which initially eased entry restrictions only for commuters from neighboring countries, thereby inducing a large inflow of “cross-border inventors” in regions close to the border. We find that the treaty increased patenting in such regions relative to comparable ones farther away from the border. We find no evidence indicating the displacement of native inventors or a reduction in the patenting activity of Switzerland’s neighboring countries. We also find that incumbent inventors in regions next to the border increased their productivity, thanks to patents in collaboration with cross-border inventors. We provide evidence suggesting that cross-border inventors contributed to Swiss patenting by enabling R&D laboratories to enlarge, albeit without increasing the productivity of local peers outside direct collaborations. |
| Keywords: | immigration; innovation; patents; inventors; free movement of persons |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137441 |