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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Pawel, Adrjan (Indeed Hiring Lab and Regent's Park College, University of Oxford); Jessen, Jonas (WZB and IAB); Victoria Lanzón, Carlos (Universidad Complutense de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether restricting temporary contracts increases firms' investment in worker training, exploiting Spain’s 2022 labour market reform. Using 3.1 million online job postings from 2018 to 2024, we implement a difference-in-differences design that leverages pre-reform variation in reliance on temporary contracts across occupations. More exposed occupations shifted toward permanent hiring and increased advertised training relative to less exposed occupations. Training rose by 4.3 percentage points, fully closing the pre-reform gap by 2024. These results provide evidence that longer expected employment duration increases firms' investment in training, identifying a channel through which labour market regulation can shape human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | temporary employment, on-the-job training, human capital investment, employment contracts |
| JEL: | J24 J41 J63 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18539 |
| By: | Breulet, Anaïs (RWTH Aachen University); Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | Performance appraisals are one of the most widely used human resource management practices. This study investigates the relationship between performance appraisals and sleep satisfaction using large-scale, representative data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Sleep satisfaction is used as a comprehensive measure of perceived restfulness and sleep quality. The results show that performance appraisals are negatively associated with sleep satisfaction, even after controlling for a wide range of socio-demographic, work-related, and personality characteristics. This negative relationship is particularly pronounced when evaluations are tied to short-term financial outcomes. These findings highlight that performance evaluation processes may generate psychological pressure that undermines employee´s ability to rest and recover. |
| Keywords: | performance appraisals, sleep satisfaction, monetary incentives, German Socio-Economic Panel |
| JEL: | M5 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18541 |
| By: | Gallen, Yana (Harris School, University of Chicago); Joensen, Juanna (University of Chicago); Johansen, Eva (the Chairmanship of the Danish Economics Councils); Veramendi, Gregory (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of unplanned pregnancy among women using long-acting reversible contraceptives to delay pregnancy. While most women successfully delay, some have unplanned pregnancies, providing quasi-random variation in pregnancy timing. Analyzing linked health and labor market data from Sweden, we find that unplanned pregnancies halt women’s career progression, resulting in income losses of 19% five years later. We find similar effects of unplanned births among women using short-acting reversible contraceptives. Using pregnancy as an instrument for birth in a dynamic treatment effect framework, effects of unplanned children are more detrimental for younger women and those enrolled in education. |
| Keywords: | labor market costs of motherhood, fertility, contraceptives, unplanned pregnancy |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18529 |
| By: | Astarita, Caterina |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the early labour-market effects of the 2021 parental-leave reform introduced un-der Article 28 of Law 4808/2021, adopted within Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The reform extended paid leave rights for both parents and aligned national provisions with Directive (EU) 2019/1158 on work–life balance. Greece, characterised by comparatively low female labour-force participation and limited uptake of paternal leave, provides an informative case for assessing how institutional design and European-level policy frameworks can influence gender-equality outcomes in Southern Europe. Using quarterly microdata from the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and a dy-namic difference-in-differences design, we estimate short-term changes in employment patterns among eligible parents relative to non-eligible comparison groups. Results indicate a moderate, but statistical-ly significant, increase in female employment continuity and a slight rise in paternal leave participa-tion. These findings suggest that in labour-market settings with limited prior experience in work–family policy provision, targeted parental-leave reforms can generate positive behavioural responses when supported by adequate resources and implementation capacity. More broadly, the study contrib-utes to debates on social-policy adaptation within the European social model and situates the reform within the broader institutional context shaped by recent European recovery and social-policy initia-tives. |
| Keywords: | Parental Leave Reform, Work–Life Balance, Gender Balance, Dynamic Difference-in-Differences, EU-LFS, Greece. |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128004 |
| By: | Lansink, Xander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Montizaan, Raymond (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, ROA / Labour market and training); Patel, Salman (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | Rising statutory retirement ages and population aging have increased interest in why individuals work beyond retirement. This systematic literature review synthesizes evidence from 103 studies, including 11 with causal designs, on post-retirement employment. We examine the roles of financial incentives, health, job characteristics, intrinsic motivation, family, and institutional context. Causal studies show modest effects of pension reforms, tax incentives, and abolitions of mandatory retirement, while employer practices and workplace flexibility strongly shape opportunities. Observational evidence highlights heterogeneous patterns across socioeconomic groups, sectors, and welfare-state regimes: financial necessity dominates in liberal systems, whereas voluntary engagement and identity motives are more important in social-democratic contexts. The findings underscore the need for multidimensional, coordinated policy approaches, combining macro-level incentives with firm-level practices and flexible work arrangements, to effectively extend working lives. |
| Keywords: | Post-retirement employment, Determinants, Institutional Context |
| JEL: | J26 J14 J32 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2026002 |
| By: | Golo Henseke |
| Abstract: | Generative AI diffuses at pace across European workplaces, but unevenly. Using the 2024 European Working Conditions Survey of more than 36, 600 workers across 35 countries, we examine who adopts generative AI and whether early adoption has begun to reshape the task content of jobs. Adoption averages 12\% but ranges from under 3% to 25% across countries. Although occupational exposure strongly predicts uptake, AI does not diffuse passively along exposure lines. At the worker level, individual skills, non-routine cognitive job content within occupations, and employee say in organisational decisions steepen the exposure-adoption gradient; at the country level, so do digitalisation and workplace training provision. A gender gap persists, concentrated in the most exposed occupations. A shift-share design finds no detectable effect of early adoption on worker-reported technology-related task restructuring, consistent with a transitional phase in which AI is fitted into changing work processes rather than actively reshaping them. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.18849 |
| By: | Ausra Cizauskaite (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin, Ireland); Karen M. Anderson (School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin, Ireland); Micheál L. Collins (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Social investment in children through the provision of high-quality childcare is high on political and academic agendas across the European Union. There are two distinctive themes in the SI and childcare literature: childcare program quality at the country level examining ‘Matthew Effects’ and the individual experiences of service users, namely, individuals with small children. However, studies have been mainly focused on childcare accessibility and use, which is one of the major disadvantages in SI and childcare literature. Yet, little is known about what people think about childcare quality, as this issue is under-researched in the literature and focuses on relatively broad socio-economic characteristics. How do ‘Matthew Effects’ in childcare drive satisfaction with childcare quality among formal childcare users? Current research takes a top-down approach by looking at public investments in childcare and finds that higher investments tend to flow to better-off people, leading to higher participation rates in formal childcare services (Cantillon 2011; Pavolini and Van Lancker, 2018; Van Lancker and Ghysels, 2012). However, existing literature does not ask how satisfied better-off people, who benefit more from childcare programmes, are with the quality of childcare services. Drawing on analysis of data from Eurofound’s European Quality of Life Survey 2016, this study contributes to these debates by investigating individual satisfaction with childcare services’ quality using a bottom-up approach for the EU (27) and the UK. The research examines the extent to which educational background and income - two variables closely associated with socio-economic status - are associated with individual satisfaction with childcare quality. The analysis of formal childcare users suggests that existing Matthew Effects in childcare use do not necessarily mean more satisfaction with childcare quality. We also find that higher educational background is inversely related to user satisfaction with childcare. This suggests that more-educated individuals have higher expectations about quality, and they also adapt these expectations in response to their experience with childcare services over time. We also explore a variable central to the approach - whether higher public expenditures on childcare lead to higher individual satisfaction with childcare quality. The findings show that childcare expenditure matters, but what matters more is the public spending context: individuals in low-and high-spending countries have higher levels of satisfaction, compared to those in medium-expenditure countries. The findings are important to the existing Social Investment and childcare literature examining Matthew Effects and suggest that childcare quality should be analysed more broadly, taking both a top-down and bottom-up approach. |
| Keywords: | Social Investment, childcare satisfaction, Matthew Effects, childcare services |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202504 |
| By: | Adriaan Kalwij; Arie Kapteyn |
| Abstract: | In the Netherlands, life expectancy has continued to rise over the last two decades and the distribution of the age of death has narrowed, which suggests a decrease in health inequality. For the same period, however, the income-mortality gradient has increased, which suggests that the health gains have been unequally distributed across the income distribution. We examine the latter suggestion using data for the Netherlands of the longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Our empirical findings show no significant changes in income-based physical and mental health inequalities during the last two decades. Arguably, larger samples, such as administrative data which is often used to analyze the income-mortality gradient, are needed to investigate in more detail the evolution of physical and mental health inequalities before drawing firm conclusions. |
| JEL: | I00 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35097 |
| By: | Delaney, Judith (University of Bath); Devereux, Paul (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We use population-level administrative data on secondary school students in England to examine how mathematical and verbal skills shape educational and labour market outcomes. Tracking cohorts from age 16 through higher education and into employment up to age 34, we show that these skills operate through distinct pathways. Verbal skills strongly predict educational attainment - including university enrolment, completion, and postgraduate study - while mathematical skills yield substantially larger earnings returns. At ages 30–34, moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the mathematics distribution is associated with 29% higher earnings, compared with 14% for verbal skills. This divergence is partly driven by field-of-study choice: individuals with stronger verbal skills are more likely to enter fields with higher completion rates but lower pay, while those with stronger mathematical skills sort into STEM and other high-paying fields. Gender differences in skills explain the female advantage in higher education and part of the STEM gap, but have limited impact on the gender earnings gap due to offsetting effects across these channels. |
| Keywords: | math skills, verbal skills, college, field of study, STEM |
| JEL: | I26 I24 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18542 |
| By: | Capretti, Lisa (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Centofanti, Francesca (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Farcomeni, Alessio (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Rosati, Furio (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines temporary migration and return decisions among immigrants in Italy using a novel administrative dataset covering 3.7 million foreign-born individuals between 2011 and 2022. By reconstructing individual migration histories, we estimate migration duration using parametric survival models, quantile regressions for interval-censored data, competing risk models, and a split cure model that distinguishes permanent settlement from the timing of exit. Results show that out-migration is concentrated in the first five years after arrival, while most migrants remain in Italy over the 12-year observation window. Age and gender matter, but local conditions within Italy strongly shape migration duration. Higher local incomes are associated with longer stays, while higher rental prices accelerate departures. Regional disparities also matter independently of economic variables: migrants in the South and Islands remain significantly longer than those in the North. These findings show that heterogeneity within host countries, rather than national averages alone, shapes migration trajectories and highlights the importance of local labor markets and living conditions. |
| Keywords: | migration dynamics, temporary migration, regional disparities, survival analysis. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 C41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18526 |
| By: | Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti; Juan A. Lafuente-Luengo; Belén Gill-de-Albornoz |
| Abstract: | This article aims to identify and quantify regulations designed to combat poverty, and to assess their effectiveness. Using textual analysis techniques, we systematically classify and quantify, for the first time, all measures adopted in Spain among the 175, 204 regulations issued by the Central Administration and the Autonomous Regions between 2007 and 2021. At both levels of government, we distinguish between targeted poverty-related regulations, such as those addressing energy poverty or child poverty, and broader poverty-related regulations, including those focused on precariousness, social assistance, or social exclusion. Furthermore, through multivariate regression analysis, we evaluate whether these regulatory frameworks have had a significant impact on regional risk-of-poverty rates. Our findings indicate that the effectiveness of both targeted and general regulatory measures depends on the level of government responsible for their implementation. Specifically, targeted measures are effective in reducing poverty risk when enacted at the regional level, but not when implemented by the central government. In contrast, broader regulatory measures prove to be effective tools for mitigating poverty when adopted at the national level, rather than by regional authorities. This study contributes to enhancing public sector accountability in Spain and provides valuable insights for refining future policymaking to achieve greater social impact. |
| Keywords: | Text Analysis, Regulation, Poverty, Energy Poverty, Child Poverty |
| JEL: | I38 J18 K36 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1041 |
| By: | Omar Martin Fieles-Ahmad; Selina Schulze Spüntrup |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of introducing prompted choice on organ donation behavior. Applying a generalized difference-in-differences design, we take advantage of the gradual roll-out of a policy in Italy that integrated the question of organ donation preference into the process of identity card renewal. Our findings show that municipalities prompting the question saw a signifcant increase in consent registrations, although individuals retained the option to abstain from making a choice. We also provide novel evidence that regions with higher levels of registered consent have higher cadaveric organ donation rates. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_425 |
| By: | Schulz, Wolfgang H. |
| Abstract: | Dieses Arbeitspapier analysiert die mikroökonomischen Konsequenzen der Open-Source-Freigabe des autonomen Fahrstacks von NVIDIA (Drive AV, Halos, CUDA-X AV) für die deutsche Automobilindustrie. Die Freigabe wird in drei theoretische Schichten eingebettet: (i) eine Plattformstrategie, die indirekte Netzwerkeffekte und die Kippdynamik zweiseitiger Märkte nutzt, (ii) eine Anwendung von Spolskys „commoditize your complements"-Strategie, bei der NVIDIA die Softwareschicht verschenkt, um die Rente auf der komplementären Hardwareschicht (GPU, DRIVE SoC) zu maximieren, und (iii) ein ökonomisches Regime fallender Grenzkosten durch AI-Factory-Effekte. Auf Basis einer erweiterten Kostenfunktion wird gezeigt, dass das gewinnmaximierende Cournot-Ergebnis bei fallenden Grenzkosten durch höheren Output und niedrigere Preise gekennzeichnet ist als das klassische natürliche Monopol, bei zugleich stärkerer Marktkonzentration. Das Papier schlägt eine Gerschenkron-inspirierte Latecomer-Lösung vor: eine zeitlich begrenzte Adoptionsphase als „Rent-Seeking-Brücke zur Unabhängigkeit", flankiert von europäischen Dateninfrastrukturen (GAIA-X, moveID), regulatorischen Leitplanken gegen Plattform-Lock-in und einer Investitionsstrategie in Richtung souveräner KI-Mobilitätsinfrastruktur. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the microeconomic consequences of NVIDIA's open-source release of its autonomous driving stack (Drive AV, Halos, CUDA-X AV) for the German automotive industry. The release is embedded in three theoretical layers: (i) a platform strategy leveraging indirect network effects and the tipping dynamics of two-sided markets, (ii) a textbook application of Spolsky's "commoditize your complements" strategy, whereby NVIDIA gives away the software layer to maximise the rent extracted on the complementary hardware layer (GPU, DRIVE SoC), and (iii) an economic regime of falling marginal costs driven by AI-factory effects. Based on an extended cost function, the profit-maximising Cournot outcome under falling marginal costs is characterised by higher output and lower prices than the classical natural monopoly, while market concentration is even more pronounced. The paper proposes a Gerschenkron-style latecomer resolution of the dilemma: a time-limited adoption phase as a "rent-seeking bridge to independence", flanked by European data infrastructures (GAIA-X, moveID), regulatory guardrails against platform lock-in, and an investment strategy toward sovereign AI mobility infrastructure |
| Keywords: | Autonomes Fahren, Open Source, Plattformökonomie, AI-Factory, Deutsche Automobilindustrie, Gerschenkron, NVIDIA, Institutionelle Rollenmodelle |
| JEL: | L13 L62 L86 O33 O38 D42 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340040 |
| By: | Ortiz-Gervasi, Luis (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); McGuinness, Seamus (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Nussio, Benedetta (Università degli Studi di Trento) |
| Abstract: | This research improves our understanding of overeducation by highlighting its risks among middle-educated workers, especially the specific risk that motherhood may pose for job mismatch among them, compared to highly educated women. It employs random-effects and Heckman selection models with Mundlak correctors on 14 waves of the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) to explore the relationship between overeducation, gender, and parenthood among middle- and highly educated employees. Overall, women are found to have a lower risk of overeducation compared to men. However, becoming a mother and having more children negatively impact the status of middle-educated women in comparison to both male workers and highly educated women. Additional evidence from the European Jobs and Skills Survey (2021) shows that jobs held by middle-educated individuals offer less job discretion than those held by highly educated workers. This lack of discretion may hinder the development of firm-specific or occupational skills that would enable women to maintain or enhance their job status after becoming mothers or having additional children. |
| Keywords: | overeducation, gender, level of education, parenthood, gender inequality, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J10 J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18518 |
| By: | Sonedda, Daniela (University of Insubria); Matranga, Marcello (University of Piemonte Orientale); Vernasca, Gianluigi (University of Essex); Rossi, Mariacristina (University of Turin); Figari, Francesco (University of Piemonte Orientale) |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients. |
| Keywords: | university grants, educational outcomes, non selective higher education |
| JEL: | I22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18547 |
| By: | Michelle Norris (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland); Lucy O'Hara (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland); Bob Jordan (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on policy transfer literature, this paper examines efforts to transfer the cost rental model of affordable housing provision from Austria to Ireland. In examines the motivation for this transfer, the similarities between the Irish and Austrian versions of this model, its effectiveness in the Irish context and the factors that shaped these outcomes. This analysis reveals that as the transfer process progressed the differences between the Irish and Austrian models increased steadily. Many of the adaptations made during the transfer process were necessary to successfully and speedily establish this model in Ireland, where it has provided a successful short-term response to housing unaffordability. However, these adaptations also meant that what had originally envisaged as an ambitious ‘systemic transfer’ (i.e. transfer of the full Austrian cost rental system to drive systemic transformation of Ireland’s ‘dual’ rental market into a ‘unitary’ system, in Kemeny’s conceptualisation), turned into a ‘scheme transfer (i.e. the transfer of parts of the Austrian system to establish an intermediate rental scheme in Ireland). Furthermore, these adaptations reduced the long-term financial sustainability of Ireland’s version of cost renting. On this basis the paper reflects on the challenges of transferring complex, multi-dimensional housing systems compared to singledimensional housing schemes. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability, intermediate renting, cost rents, housing finance. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202505 |
| By: | Hecker, Britta (IAB and the University of Bamberg); Shure, Nikki (University College London); Yükselen Saif, Ipek (No longer in academia (formerly IAB and University of Bamberg)) |
| Abstract: | We examine how adolescents’ domain‑specific confidence shapes subsequent participation in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) study and vocational training, using longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of German secondary school students. We show that domain‑specific confidence measures provide markedly different predictions from composite confidence indices: in line with established models from educational psychology, higher confidence in mathematics and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) increase the likelihood of entering STEM pathways, whereas higher confidence in reading decreases it. These opposing patterns are obscured when confidence is aggregated into a single measure. Our findings demonstrate the importance of distinguishing between domains when studying non‑cognitive determinants of STEM choices and suggest that broad confidence‑building interventions may unintentionally reinforce existing gender disparities in STEM participation. |
| Keywords: | confidence, STEM, education, gender |
| JEL: | I24 I23 D91 J24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18535 |
| By: | Irlenbusch, Bernd (University of Cologne); Rau, Holger (University of Duisburg-Essen and University of Göttingen); Rilke, Rainer (Economics Group, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We study how human versus LLM-based evaluation and gender transparency shape entry into competitive jobs. In a preregistered online experiment, participants first complete a Niederle and Vesterlund (2007) tournament task to measure competitive preferences, then prepare text-based job applications and decide whether to apply under each of four evaluation regimes—human only, LLM only, and two hybrid human-in-the-loop configurations—while gender disclosure is randomized between subjects. LLM involvement reduces application rates, with stronger effects for women than men, including under hybrid designs. Effects are driven by non-competitive candidates; non-competitive women, the group most exposed to AI-induced deterrence, receive the strongest objective evaluations under pure AI assessment across all subgroups, yet are systematically underconfident and apply least often. Competitive men persistently apply and exhibit overconfidence-driven adverse selection, whereas competitive women show resilience to AI-induced deterrence while remaining well-calibrated under AI evaluation and exhibiting positive self-selection across regimes. We find no effects of gender transparency. |
| Keywords: | AI hiring, LLMs, algorithm aversion, gender differences |
| JEL: | C92 J71 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18517 |
| By: | Casas Pablo (European Commission - JRC); Fernandez Macias Enrique (European Commission - JRC); Martinez Plumed Fernando; Gomez Emilia (European Commission - JRC); Gonzalez Vazquez Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); Salotti Simone (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Generative AI is reshaping what artificial intelligence can do in the workplace, calling into question pre-GenAI assessments of which workers and tasks are most exposed. In this paper we trace the evolution of AI exposure in the European labour market from 2008 to 2024 by linking 352 AI benchmarks to 14 cognitive abilities, 108 work tasks and 127 ISCO-3 occupations, weighting benchmarks by their research intensity in the AI literature and thus deriving AI exposure by cognitive ability. Bundling work tasks into occupations based on intensity indicators, we explore occupational exposure to AI. We find that the cognitive abilities most exposed to the recent surge of AI research are ideas-related, such as attention and search, comprehension and expression and logical reasoning. Because the associated information processing and problem-solving tasks are the most transversal across occupations, we find an exponential increase in AI exposure across all occupational categories of workers, even though comparatively high-skilled occupations are more exposed than elementary occupations. This points at a substantial and transversal labour market impact of AI. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202602 |
| By: | Rogna Marco (European Commission - JRC); Tillie Pascal (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Adopted in June 2023, the European Union Regulation on Deforestation-free products (EUDR) aims at reducing global deforestation by creating a traceability system that should prevent products that have caused deforestation to be placed on, or exported from, the European market. The price increase of several commodities covered by the EUDR in the last few years has raised the concern that this could have been caused by the same regulation, due to increased production or compliance costs or market operator behaviour, even before the effective application of the EUDR. The present study tries to assess this hypothesis using descriptive statistics and data visualization. Several elements seem to indicate a distinctive pattern in the price increase of the commodities covered by the EUDR after 2023, but an imbalance between demand and supply for many of such commodities strongly undermines the argument of a causal effect of the regulation. Indeed, considering this imbalance, it appears that the observed price spikes for some EUDR-regulated commodities may have coincided with the entrance into force of the EUDR by chance, rather than being a direct consequence of the regulation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202601 |
| By: | Alex Pienkowski; Valentina Semenova; Ian C. Stuart; Yuntian Lu |
| Abstract: | European governments face tight fiscal constraints amid rising debt and mounting demands from aging, health, defense, and climate spending, while scope to raise taxes is limited. This paper benchmarks the distributional efficiency of non-old-age social protection across Europe using harmonized EU-SILC microdata: defining efficiency as the reduction in the Gini coefficient per euro of transfers. We estimate an efficiency frontier and document large cross-country dispersion: countries with similar spending levels achieve markedly different inequality outcomes. Moving toward the frontier implies potential savings of about 0.7 percent of GDP on average. Complementing this cross-sectional lens, we examine how inequality reduction changes with each additional euro of transfers as coverage extends beyond poorer households. We show that marginal gains typically decline and can eventually turn negative, helping to identify spending components with limited distributional payoff. While social protection serves many important objectives beyond redistribution, our metric provides a transparent, comparable benchmark for assessing where fiscal space may be created with minimal impact on inequality and poverty. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; fiscal incidence; expenditure; redistribution; survey data |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/078 |
| By: | Cruces Hugo (European Commission - JRC); Bornukova Kateryna (European Commission - JRC); Hernandez Adrian; Picos Fidel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Spain’s child at-risk-of-poverty rate stands around 29%, among the highest in the EU, and substantially higher than the overall population rate of 19%. The existing cash child support system in Spain fails to reach poor families: it is centered on a non-refundable child tax credit (“mínimo por descendientes”) that provides higher support per child to higher-income households, leaving as many as 60% of children in poverty without this tax relief. Making the child tax credit refundable or implementing a Universal Child Benefit would fill the gaps of the current system, outperforming the status quo in terms of poverty reduction at the same budgetary cost. More ambitiously, reducing Spain’s child poverty to the EU average would cost about 1.3% of GDP yearly, still well below existing estimates of the costs associated with childhood disadvantage (4-5% GDP). |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc146328 |