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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Ricard Grebol (UPPSALA UNIVERSITY); Margarita Machelett (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Jan Stuhler (UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID); Ernesto Villanueva (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating among the same cohorts. To explore these patterns, we examine regional correlates of mobility, using split-sample techniques. A key finding from both national and regional analyses is the close association between mobility and assortative mating: spousal sorting accounts for nearly half of the regional variation in intergenerational correlations and also appears to be a key mediator of the negative relationship between inequality and mobility documented in recent studies. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, assortative mating, inequality, education |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J62 N34 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Yoto V Yotov (Drexel University, Ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | European integration is now faced with the question of strategic autonomy. Against this backdrop, this paper has three objectives. First, it uses disaggregated trade data and established empirical methods to assess the benefits of European integration on trade among the members of the European Union (EU) as well as on trade between EU members and non-member countries, including non-members that are part of the Single Market. Second, it evaluates the costs of EU strategic autonomy -implying not trading with "riskier" partners. Third, it asks whether deeper integration within the EU can alleviate these costs. The paper shows that the gains from European integration are substantial, albeit heterogeneous across Member States, non-members, and sectors, and that the costs of strategic autonomy can be offset by deeper, but comparatively more modest, integration efforts within the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Autonomy, Risky Suppliers, Trade, Single Market, European Integration |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-05512419 |
| By: | Guerini, Mattia; Marin, Giovanni; Vona, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how monetary policy can shape firm-level carbon emissions and energy efficiency. It also looks at the heterogeneity of these effects by firm size, the underlying transmission channels and interaction with climate policies. The authors draw on administrative and survey data on French manufacturing firms for the period 2000–2019, including emissions, energy use, financial conditions, environmental protection investments and productivity. They examine the effect of credit easing following a variation to interest rate policy made by the European Central Bank in July 2012. They find that financially constrained firms cut emissions by about 9.4% more than unconstrained ones. This effect primarily stems from improvements in energy efficiency, reduced carbon intensity of energy, and general productivity improvements associated with capital deepening that outweighed modest scale effects. The results are driven by small and medium-sized firms. Large firms including those regulated by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) showed no significant response. On average, emissions fell by 3.3% per year, summing up to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 saved (comparable to the savings from the EU ETS), highlighting the untargeted nature of the policy. |
| Keywords: | carbon intensity; credit; EU ETS; European Central Bank; firms; France; interest rates; manufacturing; SMEs |
| JEL: | Q48 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137115 |
| By: | Gabriel Ahlfeldt (HU Berlin); Stephan Heblich (University of Toronto); Tobias Seidel (University of Duisburg-Essen); Fan Yin (HU Berlin, Berlin School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We construct a new micro-geographic commercial rent index for Germany to study the capitalization of agglomeration economies into floor space prices. In large local labor markets, commercial rents decline by -17% per kilometer from the central business district, compared to 13% for residential rents, reflecting stronger agglomeration benefits at the center. Commercial rents in central business districts increase with local labor market size at an elasticity of 15%, implying that wage responses capture only about half of the agglomeration effect on total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | floor space; rents; spatial equilibrium; total factor productivity; |
| JEL: | L2 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:563 |
| By: | Schlenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Healthcare systems worldwide face increasing nurse shortages, but the consequences remain poorly understood. This paper studies how nurse scarcity in hospitals affects care provision and patient health. I exploit the 2011 Swiss franc stabilization, which increased the salience to cross-border commute from Germany to Switzerland and led to an outflow of nurses in German hospitals depending on their distance to the border. Using rich universal patient-, hospital-, and county-level German and Swiss administrative data in a matched difference-in-differences design, I show that border hospitals lose around 12 percent of their nursing staff. This leads to lower care intensity and a reallocation of services towards urgent cases (triage) while healthcare demand or supply outside hospitals remains unchanged. Consequently, in-hospital mortality rises by 4.4 percent - concentrated among emergency and older patients - and life expectancy decreases by 0.28 statistical life years, with no evidence of offsetting gains in Switzerland. These results highlight that nurse scarcity shapes hospital production and widens health disparities across patients and regions. |
| Keywords: | Labor scarcity, cross-border commuting, nurse shortages, hospital production, healthcare provision, triage, patient mortality |
| JEL: | F22 I11 I18 J22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336756 |
| By: | Piera Bello; Vincenzo Galasso; Alessandro Izzo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how policy uncertainty influences retirement decisions. We develop a simple model in which individuals face a one-time choice between immediate retirement and continued employment until the statutory retirement age. In the absence of policy uncertainty, retirement decisions depend solely on the standard income–leisure trade-off. When future pension reforms are uncertain, however, individuals also take into account the perceived risk of increases in the retirement age or reductions in benefit generosity, and may choose to accept the offer in order to lock in current pension rules. Using administrative data from a large Italian bank that offered a one-time early-retirement scheme in 2017, we find that acceptance rates decline with the expected income loss but rise with the number of years to retirement. These patterns are consistent with workers using early retirement as an insurance against potential policy changes, underscoring the importance of incorporating behavioural responses to policy uncertainty in the design of pension systems. Our findings suggest that individuals with an average annual income of €35, 000 are willing to pay an annual premium of €481 to insure against the probability that the pension system is reformed. |
| Keywords: | retirement, social security, loss aversion, uncertainty, pension reform |
| JEL: | D91 H55 J14 J26 J38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12488 |
| By: | Steffen Altmann; Robert Mahlstedt; Malte Rattenborg; Alexander Sebald; Sonja Settele; Johannes Wohlfart |
| Abstract: | In a field experiment with 9, 000 Danish job seekers, we study how unemployed workers’ wage expectations affect job search and re-employment. In our survey, we generate exogenous variation in respondents' wage expectations by informing a random half of them about re-employment wages of comparable workers. The intervention increases job-finding as measured in administrative data for both initially optimistic and initially pessimistic respondents, but through different channels: initial optimists lower their reservation wages and intensify search, while pessimists raise reservation wages and redirect applications toward local vacancies. Consistent with spatial search frictions, narrowing the geographic scope accelerates job finding among pessimists. |
| Keywords: | expectations, job search |
| JEL: | D83 D84 J64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12420 |
| By: | Fabiano Compagnucci (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Mauro Gallegati (Università Politecnica delle Marche); Andrea Gentili (Università Mercatorum); Enzo Valentini (Università di Macerata) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between robotisation—understood as a key driver of innovation—and its impact on employment and household income, with a particular emphasis on the role of firm size at the industry level across regions in the Euro area. In the microeconomic literature, larger firms are generally viewed as more likely to adopt robotisation and more vulnerable to labour saving effects than smaller firms. However, the spatial dimension of this relationship remains underexplored. To address this gap, we calculate the Adjusted Penetration of Robots at the sectoral level by integrating data from the International Federation of Robotics on robot stocks, the EUROSTAT Regional Database, and the Structural Analysis (STAN) database, covering 150 NUTS 2 regions in the Euro area. We then perform a spatial stacked panel analysis incorporating various firm size metrics. Our findings challenge prevailing microeconomic insights. At the regional level, areas with a high prevalence of small firms show a negative correlation between robotisation and household income and employment. In contrast, in regions dominated by non-small firms, robotisation positively correlates with employment but does not result in corresponding increases in household income. These findings indicate that the regional impacts of robotisation may diverge substantially from the aggregated performance of individual firms, as highlighted in the microeconomic literature. |
| Keywords: | Robotisation, Employment, Households’ Income, Firms’ size, Regional Divergence |
| JEL: | O33 J24 D02 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp69 |
| By: | Lovisa Reiche; Gabriele Galati; Richhild Moessner; Maarten van Rooij |
| Abstract: | We study how consumers form and revise inflation expectations using a unique, highly balanced monthly panel of Dutch households. We develop a Bayesian framework that nests Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) alongside common forecasting heuristics and test it by recovering person-specific belief-updating rules from individual time-series regressions. Our novel individual-level design reveals substantial heterogeneity in how households process information over time. On average, consumers systematically overreact to current inflation, echoing patterns found for professional forecasters. Only 2.5 percent, predominantly wealthier, more educated men, behave consistently with FIRE. Most consumers rely on simple heuristics, especially adaptive expectations. Our results show that heuristic learning, not FIRE, characterizes expectation formation for the vast majority of households. Crucially, heterogeneity in belief updating is both large and systematic. |
| Keywords: | household inflation expectations, FIRE, heuristic learning |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E70 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12450 |
| By: | Markus Nagler; Erwin Winkler |
| Abstract: | A large literature investigates the employment effects of minimum wages, with comparatively little evidence on other adjustment margins. In this paper, we analyze the impact of a nationwide introduction of minimum wages in Germany on employer-induced work pressure, using detailed worker-level survey data. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the introduction of minimum wages increased work pressure in occupations more exposed to the minimum wage. The increase in work pressure cannot be explained by compositional changes in terms of demographics, job complexity, or hours worked. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, work pressure, non-wage amenities, working conditions, compensating differentials |
| JEL: | J28 J31 J32 J33 J81 H80 I31 I38 K31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12460 |
| By: | Weber, Karl Matthias; Dachs, Bernhard; Rozgonyi, Krisztina; Zweifler, Zoe; Beckert, Bernd; Gruber, Sonia; Hummler, Andreas; Kroll, Henning; Neuhäusler, Peter; Rothengatter, Oliver; Schwäbe, Carsten; Yang, Peipei |
| Abstract: | Germany and Europe are often said to lag behind the United States and China in the development and application of artificial intelligence technologies and other complementary technologies. Scientific, technological and ultimately economic performance in the field of this technology bundle, often referred to as the AI stack, depends not least on the institutional conditions for rapid technology development, scaling and implementation, in relation to which closer European cooperation, the provision of appropriate infrastructural and financial resources, and the intensification of cooperation between AI developers and users. In addition to a detailed analysis and evaluation of the performance of the EU and its member states in comparison with leading international countries on the basis of publication and patent data, the performance of various machine learning models and the international AI corporate landscape are also examined. Furthermore, the interaction of R&I policy, industrial policy and regulatory policy measures at EU level and in selected member states (Finland, France, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany) is compared with practices in international reference countries (China, the United Kingdom, India and the United States). On this basis, implications and possible options for action for German and European AI policy are identified. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:efisdi:336806 |
| By: | Ioannis Laliotis; Christos A. Makridis |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the labour market position of artists across Europe and examines how it co-varies with public cultural spending. Using EU-LFS micro-data for 2009-2023, we compare artists to non-artists using harmonised measures of wage rank, employment, and non-standard work. Using within-country variation and controlling for demographic factors, artists rank substantially lower in the wage distribution: in the pooled sample, the estimated penalty is about 0.46 wage deciles relative to other salaried workers and about 0.28 deciles relative to other professionals. These earnings gaps coexist with higher exposure to non-standard employment, including part-time work, temporary contracts, and multiple job holding, with patterns that persist over the life cycle and appear in most countries. We then link individual outcomes to a country-year panel of real per capita public expenditure on cultural services. Higher cultural spending is associated with modest improvements in aggregate employment and lower part-time incidence, but these associations do not systematically differ for artists or arts graduates. The only consistent differential correlation is an increase in multiple job holding among arts graduates in higher-spending environments. Thus, changes in aggregate cultural spending are not sufficient on their own to narrow wage or job-quality gaps for artists, motivating a rethinking of cultural policy instruments toward mechanisms that more directly address labour market risks faced by cultural workers. |
| Keywords: | artists, cultural employment, public arts funding, creative economy, Europe, wage premium, culture |
| JEL: | Z11 J44 J31 J68 H52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12483 |
| By: | Francesco Cinnirella; Sebastiano Della Lena; Elena Manzoni; Fabrizio Panebianco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how religious ethic influences contributions to public goods. We develop a theoretical model distinguishing individualistic motivations - where people seek to meet individual moral standards - from collectivistic motivations - where behavior is guided by others' expectations. We argue that the Protestant ethic emphasizes individual responsibility, while the Catholic ethic places greater weight on social expectations. The model predicts that the Protestant contribution share increases with income, whereas the Catholic contribution share is non-monotonic. Moreover, Catholics' overall contribution is relatively higher at lower-middle incomes and lower at higher-middle incomes, while there is no denominational difference in the decision whether to contribute at all. The model also implies that only Catholics' contributions are sensitive to the religious composition of their environment. We test these predictions using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, exploiting variation within individuals. Consistent with the theoretical model, we find (i) no denominational differences at the extensive margin; (ii) at the intensive margin, donations increase with income among Protestants and remain flat among Catholics. These results hold when using the denomination of the parents, suggesting intergenerational transmission of religious ethics. Our findings highlight the role of religious moral structures in shaping cooperative behavior and public-good provision. |
| Keywords: | public good, religion, individualism, collectivism, guilt aversion |
| JEL: | D91 H41 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12414 |
| By: | Alexander Daminger (WIFO); Peter Huber; Klaus Nowotny |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 on enterprise dynamics at the NUTS-2 level. Using discrete eligibility thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita, we implement sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to assess effects on enterprise births and deaths, changes in the number of and employment in enterprises and local units. The analysis draws on ARDECO, DG REGIO, and Eurostat data, and considers both the full period (2014-2020) and a prepandemic subsample (2014-2019). We find no robust evidence of statistically significant discontinuities in treatment intensity at the thresholds, except under restrictive model assumptions. This lack of sharp jumps in funding intensity, combined with low statistical power, prevents credible identification of causal effects on enterprise outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic tests reveal structural breaks in key regional characteristics (e.g., sectoral structure, education, initial enterprise density) at the cutoffs, violating core RDD assumptions and suggesting confounding. We argue that institutional changes – the introduction of "transition regions" category, smoothed eligibility rules, and additional allocation criteria such as unemployment – have weakened the quasi-experimental nature of GDP-based thresholds. Future evaluations should rely on multiperiod designs and alternative identification strategies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Policy, Firm growth and demography, Evaluation |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:720 |
| By: | Alina Kristin Bartscher; Georg Duernecker; Johannes Goensch; Nils Wehrhöfer |
| Abstract: | We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. We link the survey to credit register data and find that treated firms both increase their loan amounts and shift their loan structure toward longer-term, fixed-rate credit with lower interest rates. Using balance sheet data, we also show that treated firms invest more following the RCT. These effects are driven by small firms. We rationalize our findings in a stylized model of firms with imperfect information about the interest rate. |
| Keywords: | survey experiment, administrative data, firm expectations, incomplete information |
| JEL: | D14 D15 G51 E21 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12442 |
| By: | Elisa Stumpf (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, CESifo) |
| Abstract: | We study beliefs about wealth inequality and preferences for wealth redistribution, drawing on a large-scale online survey in Germany. Specifically, we assess participants’ knowledge of the German wealth distribution, their perceived position within it, and the effects of two information treatments on redistribution preferences. While we find no significant average treatment effects across the full sample, a systematic data-driven analysis reveals important heterogeneities across several of our covariates, offering detailed insights into the roles of age, trust in official statistics and institutions, and individual wealth. |
| Keywords: | wealth distribution, preferences for redistribution, inequality, survey experiment, information provision |
| JEL: | C90 D31 D63 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-003 |
| By: | Krzysztof Karbownik; Helena Svaleryd; Jonas Vlachos; Xuemeng Wang |
| Abstract: | Work-related burnout and stress-related sickness absence have become increasingly prevalent, but evidence on which workplace features shape workers’ mental health remains limited. Using population-level Swedish register data covering all lower- and upper-secondary teachers from 2006–2024, we show that schools serving more disadvantaged students exhibit substantially higher rates of sickness absence, particularly for stress-related diagnoses. Exploiting within-teacher variation across student cohorts, we separate sorting from exposure and find that a one standard deviation increase in student disadvantage raises overall and stress-related sick leave by 3.6% and 8.7%, respectively. Survey evidence indicates that these effects operate through classroom conditions rather than workload or organizational differences. The findings establish client composition as a distinct and policy-relevant determinant of worker health in contact-intensive occupations. |
| Keywords: | student composition, mental health, contact-intensive occupations |
| JEL: | I10 I21 J63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12468 |
| By: | Garcia Calvo, Angela (University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how Europe may achieve this goal through an analysis of the automotive sector as it transitions from internal combustion engines to battery electric, software-defined vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2025/47 |
| By: | Constanze Liepold (constanze.liepold@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de); Reinhard Madlener (RMadlener@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de) |
| Abstract: | The rapid electrification of private heating and mobility increases residential electricity demand and requires new mechanisms to stabilize power grids. Direct load control (DLC) offers a technically effective way to manage demand-side flexibility, yet its acceptance by private households remains uncertain. This study investigates willingness-to-accept (WTA) and preference structures for DLC programs in the German-speaking D-A-CH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), using a large-scale survey (N = 10, 346) and a choice-based conjoint experiment. Five core tariff attributes (financial compensation, intervention frequency, intervention duration, controllable technology, and Control Options) were evaluated across socio-economic groups using a hierarchical Bayes model. Financial compensation is found to be the most influential factor, followed by duration and frequency of interventions. Control Options are strongly preferred and associated with negative WTA values, indicating that autonomy substantially increases acceptance. Technology-related differences are found to be small: wallboxes require the highest compensation, while heat pumps and battery storage are generally well accepted. Cross-country differences in WTA are found to be statistically significant but modest, with Germany showing the highest compensation requirements. Socio-economic effects are minor. Overall, households accept DLC when interventions are short, predictable, and transparent, and when users retain basic control. These results suggest that effective DLC programs must combine fair compensation with autonomy safeguards and clear communication to ensure social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Direct load control; Demand-side flexibility; Socio-Economic Status; D-AC-H Region; Discrete Choice Experiment |
| JEL: | D12 C25 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:022308 |
| By: | Giuseppe Attanasi (Sapienza University of Rome); Annamaria Nese (University of Salerno); Patrizia Sbriglia (Luigi Vanvitelli University of Campania); Luigi Senatore (University of Salerno) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we report the results of a field experiment conducted in Southern Italy in 2023, analysing the behavioural effects of earthquakes as far as trust, trustworthiness, and risk aversion are concerned. The experiments were conducted in an area where a disastrous earthquake occurred in 1980 within the Campania region. Our working hypotheses aim at testing whether there are long-term effects of an earthquake. The experimental design comprised two treatments. For the first treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns close to the earthquake epicentre that had experienced significant damage from the disaster. For the second treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns with similar socio-economic characteristics but located far from the epicentre. Our results indicate that subjects who experienced the earthquake and its aftermath are more willing to trust, reciprocate kindness, and are more risk-averse than subjects in the alternative treatment. Overall, our results shed new light on the long-term effects of catastrophes and bear relevant implications for public and health policies. |
| Keywords: | Field Experiments, Environmental Disasters, Trust, Risk Aversion |
| JEL: | C90 C91 C93 D15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp67 |
| By: | António Afonso; Eduardo Rodrigues |
| Abstract: | Savings play a critical role in both individual financial well-being and economic development. This article examines the impact of financial literacy, income, educational level, and age on saving decisions across 136 countries, using data from the Global Financial Inclusion Database (2021) and employing Generalized Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM). Financial literacy is conceptualized as a latent variable, based on five indicators related to financial knowledge, financial behavior, and financial attitudes, aligned with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) pillars. The analysis demonstrates that financial literacy is a fundamental driver for saving in the short and long term. Education level and income are consistent predictors of savings, while age exhibits distinct effects depending on the savings objective. Regional differences emerge, with Latin American countries showing the strongest link between financial literacy and savings, whereas in high-income economies, its influence is less pronounced. These findings underscore the multifaceted role of financial literacy in shaping saving decisions and highlight its implications for tailored public policies. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy, savings, Generalized Structural Equation Modelling, behavioral economics, global survey |
| JEL: | D14 G53 I22 C38 O16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12400 |