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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Aldasoro, Iñaki; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Pal, Rozalia; Revoltella, Debora; Weiss, Christoph; Wolski, Marcin |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects productivity and employment in Europe. Using matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12, 000 non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) and United States (US), we instrument the adoption of AI by EU firms by assigning the adoption rates of US peers to isolate exogenous technological exposure. Our results show that AI adoption increases the level of labor productivity by 4%. Productivity gains are due to capital deepening, as we find no adverse effects on firm-level employment. This suggests that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labor in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain. However, productivity benefits of AI adoption are unevenly distributed and concentrate in medium and large firms. Moreover, AI-adopting firms are more innovative and their workers earn higher wages. Our analysis also highlights the critical role of complementary investments in software and data or workforce training to fully unlock the productivity gains of AI adoption. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, firm productivity, Europe, digital transformation |
| JEL: | D22 J24 L25 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:335876 |
| By: | Marija Trpkova - Nestorovska (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | The study explores the interdependence between female labor force participation and fertility dynamics in eight Southeastern European countries during 2000 – 2023, using the crude birth rate as a consistent macro level proxy for fertility in panel regression estimation. The analysis covers eight countries and incorporates economic, educational, and demographic control variables. Results reveal that short-term increases in female employment and tertiary education enrollment are significantly associated with declining birth rates, while economic growth shows a positive effect. Other factors, including part-time employment, urbanization, and parental leave policies, are not statistically significant in the short run. The study underscores the complexity of natality dynamics in transitioning economies and highlights the need for supportive family policies. |
| Keywords: | Birth rates, Female labor force participation, Southeastern Europe, Panel regression, Education, Economic development |
| JEL: | J13 J16 O52 C23 I23 F63 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:180-193 |
| By: | Bavaro, Michele; Trinh, Nhat An (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between international migration and social mobility has been a central topic in recent research, with scholars highlighting the influence of socioeconomic resources, aspirational attitudes, and structural barriers on the social mobility experience of migrants. This study extends existing work and examines the intergenerational social mobility of first- and second-generation immigrants in 22 European countries. Using fully harmonized and nationally representative data (EU-SILC, 2019), we provide a comparative analysis of absolute mobility in terms of social class and economic hardship. Our results show that mobility patterns differ across dimensions and generations: First-generation migrants generally experience more downward mobility than upward mobility, whereas for the second generation upward mobility is more prevalent in some countries. The first generation is also more likely to experience downward class mobility compared to natives, while chances of upward hardship mobility are higher on average despite cross-country variation. Migrant-native gaps in class and hardship mobility are smaller for the second generation. Differences in own and parental education between natives and migrants cannot fully account for observed gaps, suggesting the relevance of other factors in driving persistent inequalities in opportunities for social mobility. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility, migration, cross-country comparison, first and second generation, Europe |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Kristijan Kozheski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Trajko Slaveski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Predrag Trpeski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Kristijan Kozheski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Borce Trenovski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Gunter Merdzan (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | Purpose The study aims to examine the rationale, structure, and effectiveness of labor market measures and policies in Central and South-Eastern European (CSEE) countries, with particular attention to the post-transition challenges that have shaped their labor market dynamics. It highlights the critical role of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs) in enhancing employability, reducing structural unemployment, and fostering long-term socio-economic inclusion through targeted interventions addressing skill mismatches and persistent unemployment. Design/methodology/approach The research applies a comparative analytical approach, combining theoretical insights from labor economics with empirical evidence drawn from policy evaluations and statistical indicators for selected CSEE countries. The analysis categorizes labor market policies into six main groups—public employment services, training programs, employment incentives, direct job creation, entrepreneurship promotion, and financial support for the unemployed—and evaluates their scope, design, and institutional effectiveness across differing economic contexts. In addition, the empirical strategy employs a dynamic panel-data GMM estimator to identify causal effects while addressing endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and potential serial correlation. Findings The findings reveal that the efficiency and sustainability of labor market policies in Central and South Eastern European (CSEE) countries are largely contingent upon institutional quality, policy coordination, and fiscal capacity. Well-targeted active labor market policies (ALMPs)—particularly training programmes and employment incentives—have demonstrated measurable impacts in reducing long-term and youth unemployment (Kluve, 2006; Hijzen and Venn, 2011). In contrast, direct job creation and financial support measures tend to yield only transitory effects unless integrated with active reintegration strategies and skill development initiatives (Card et al., 2018). The temporal analysis of labor market policy expenditures from 2004 to 2022 identifies distinct phases shaped by post-transition economic transformation, EU accession processes, and exogenous shocks such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During periods of heightened macroeconomic instability, particularly in 2009–2010 and again in 2020–2021, governments in the region expanded ALMP spending through wage subsidy schemes and job retention programs (Hijzen and Venn, 2011). However, the subsequent withdrawal of emergency measures and the re-emergence of fiscal constraints reveal a persistent reliance on reactive, crisis-driven interventions. This contrasts with the more structurally embedded, long-term human capital and productivity strategies observed in advanced EU member states (Card et al., 2018). The findings thus underscore the importance of transitioning toward forward-looking labor market policies that are institutionally grounded, fiscally sustainable, and aligned with broader goals of inclusive and resilient economic growth. Figure 1: Total Expenditures on Labor Market Policies and Measures in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries (in million EUR) (Source: EUROSTAT) The data presented in Table 2 indicate pronounced differences in the distribution of total labor market policy expenditures among the selected Central and South Eastern European countries during the period 2004–2022. Poland consistently dominates the expenditure structure, accounting for between 41.5% and 59.3% of total spending, reflecting both the size of its economy and its long-standing strategic commitment to improving labor market performance and reducing unemployment. Hungary follows with an average share of approximately 15%, although its expenditure dropped sharply to 7.3% in 2020 due to temporary fiscal adjustments and programme restructuring during the COVID-19 pandemic, before recovering in 2022. The Czech Republic ranks third, recording a 23% share of total expenditures in 2022, while Romania and Bulgaria exhibit notably low and declining spending levels, with Romania’s share falling from 8.1% in 2005 to only 1.3% in 2020, suggesting limited fiscal support and weak institutional capacity. Slovenia maintains a relatively stable share of around 4–5%, indicating consistent but modest financing, constrained by its smaller economic base. Croatia, included in the later years of observation, recorded a substantial increase in expenditure in 2020, driven primarily by emergency job-retention programmes introduced during the pandemic. Overall, the data from Table 2 demonstrate that countries with stronger institutions and greater fiscal capacity, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, sustain higher and more stable levels of labor market policy spending, while those with weaker institutional frameworks, such as Romania and Bulgaria, remain constrained by low and fragmented investment in labor market interventions. Table 1: Share of Selected Central and Eastern European Countries in Total Expenditures on Labor Market Measures and Policies (in %) Country 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 Bulgaria 3, 0 2, 6 3, 6 4, 3 6, 2 Romania 8, 1 9, 3 4, 2 1, 3 Slovenia 3, 8 5, 4 4, 2 5, 4 4, 3 Croatia 4, 8 7, 7 Czechia 9, 3 13, 0 14, 6 15, 7 23, 0 Poland 59, 3 45, 7 44, 9 50, 0 41, 5 Hungary 12, 1 16, 4 17, 8 7, 3 12, 0 Slovakia 4, 4 7, 7 6, 0 8, 3 13, 0 (Source: ILO STAT) The data presented in Table 3 illustrate significant variation in the allocation of expenditures across distinct categories of active labor market measures (ALMMs) in the selected Central and South Eastern European (CSEE) countries over the period 2004–2022. The largest proportion of spending is consistently directed toward employment incentives, which peaked in 2020 at EUR 3, 670.26 million and remained elevated in 2021. This trend reflects the widespread implementation of wage subsidy schemes and job-retention programmes introduced as emergency fiscal responses to mitigate mass layoffs and labor market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Expenditures on services provided by public employment institutions also constitute a substantial share of total spending, displaying steady growth from EUR 521.57 million in 2005 to EUR 862.31 million in 2022. This pattern suggests continued institutional investment in employment mediation, counselling, and job placement support. In contrast, spending on training and skills development programmes has declined markedly, from EUR 564.99 million in 2008 to just EUR 86.6 million in 2022, indicating a reduced and inconsistent emphasis on long-term strategies for human capital enhancement. Meanwhile, expenditures for direct job creation and support for self-employment exhibit cyclical dynamics, with noticeable increases during crisis periods—particularly in 2010 and 2020—underscoring their role as short-term countercyclical instruments rather than components of a sustained developmental agenda. Overall, the evidence from Table 3 suggests that active labor market policy in the region remains primarily oriented toward short-term labor market stabilization, while structural interventions aimed at improving skills, fostering entrepreneurship, and enhancing long-term labor market resilience receive comparatively limited and inconsistent financial prioritization. Table 2: Expenditures by Categories of Active Labor Market Measures in Selected Central and South Eastern European Countries, 2004–2022 (in million EUR) Year Services Provided by Public Labor Market Institutions Training and Skills Development Programmes Employment Incentives Direct Job Creation Incentives for Starting One’s Own Business 2005 521, 57 341, 21 282, 19 314, 16 434, 37 2006 645, 79 387, 55 291, 73 319, 21 447, 24 2007 701, 49 421, 61 381, 2 313, 88 533, 55 2008 758, 92 564, 99 417, 52 342, 38 653 2009 716, 66 252, 92 708, 62 456, 42 959, 84 2010 735, 26 292, 91 1062, 18 660, 4 1132, 33 2011 762, 37 147, 07 648, 12 376, 15 849, 89 2012 766, 07 147, 55 680, 57 622, 52 641, 8 2013 753, 08 167, 01 829, 68 882, 92 599, 33 2014 802, 68 169, 42 918, 92 977, 38 543, 58 2015 782, 65 149, 19 943, 17 1091, 39 513, 27 2016 755, 16 120, 63 903, 9 1114, 92 488, 38 2017 799, 67 130, 04 873, 21 1014, 93 490, 37 2018 753, 97 145, 15 811, 52 748, 26 472, 45 2019 858, 15 123, 5 707, 75 683, 09 484, 53 2020 883, 38 88, 71 3670, 26 495, 88 676, 59 2021 835, 29 71, 85 2577, 58 511, 61 522, 87 2022 862, 31 86, 6 691, 03 422, 33 573, 75 (Source: ILO STAT) The results of the econometric analysis indicate that among all categories of active labor market measures, the most substantial and statistically significant positive effect on employment in Central and South Eastern European countries is associated with services provided by public labor market institutions. A 10% increase in fiscal spending on such services is estimated to raise the employment rate by 0.2%, underscoring the critical role of institutional support, including counselling, job matching, and individualized assistance, in facilitating workers’ integration into the labor market. Conversely, training and skills development programmes display a statistically significant negative relationship with employment, reflecting their limited efficiency, low participation rates, and insufficient alignment with labor market needs, particularly in countries such as Bulgaria and Romania, where training initiatives often remain formalistic and poorly connected to employer demand. Employment incentives, in contrast, exhibit a positive and significant effect, where a 10% increase in fiscal incentives is expected to raise employment by 0.1%, confirming their relevance as short-term activation tools. The strongest effect, however, is observed for direct job creation measures: a 10% rise in related expenditures increases employment by an estimated 0.4%, suggesting that these interventions are particularly effective during crises, albeit with limited long-term sustainability. Measures promoting self-employment show a negative and significant impact, indicating structural weaknesses such as weak entrepreneurial ecosystems, regulatory uncertainty, and inadequate institutional support. Overall, the findings suggest that the effectiveness of labor market measures across the region is strongly contingent upon the institutional capacity and operational efficiency of public employment services. Countries with well-developed and adaptable institutions achieve higher and more sustained employment outcomes, while those with fragmented systems and limited fiscal resources face persistent challenges in reducing unemployment and enhancing human capital. Table 3: Expenditures by Categories of Active Labor Market Measures in Selected Central and South Eastern European Countries, 2004–2022 (in million EUR) Dynamic Panel Data Estimation Results (Arellano-Bond GMM) Number of observations = 132 Number of countries = 8 Instruments (total) = 10 Wald X2 (4) = 29346 Prob > X2 =0.000 Dependent variable: employment Variable Coefficient Robust. Std. Err. L1.employment .9304527*** .063456 services 0.0229 *** 0.0041 training -0.0179 ** 0.0029 empl_incentives 0.0109* 0.0017 job_creation 0.0384 ** 0.0049 start_up -0.0233 *** 0.0070 out_work 0.0011 0.0011 _cons 49.9130 *** 0.4950 Significance levels: *** p |
| Keywords: | Labor market policies, Employment incentives, Active labor market measures, Institutional capacity, Central and South Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J08 J21 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:273-278 |
| By: | Holmberg, Johan (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Simmons, Michael (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Telemo, Paul (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of liquid wealth in job displacement costs using Swedish administrative data. Low-wealth hand-to-mouth workers experience substantially larger earnings losses after job loss than wealthier peers. Because earnings losses are largest for individuals least able to smooth consumption, standard estimates understate heterogeneity in welfare losses. The relationship between wealth and displacement costs persist after controlling for worker and employer characteristics that are highlighted in the displacement literature. Using parental death as an instrument for liquid wealth growth, we show that inheritances significantly reduce displacement costs for hand-to-mouth individuals but have no effect for wealthier workers. |
| Keywords: | Job displacement; Wealth; Hand-to-mouth; Job search; Earnings losses |
| JEL: | E24 J31 J62 J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1043 |
| By: | Gu, Grace (University of California, Santa Cruz); Mulalic, Ismir (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Pozzoli, Dario (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Wu, Jinhong (The Technical University of Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Climate-related risks have increased significantly over the past two decades, including both physical risks (such as extreme weather events) and transition risks (arising from climate change mitigation policies). This paper examines how these risks relate to firms’ innovation outcomes, including those related to green technologies. We first develop a model in which firms choose how many workers to employ for R&D and production activities in response to rising climate risks. The model predicts an increase in green innovation and overall innovation under certain conditions. Empirical evidence from Danish administrative data generally supports these predictions, showing that firms exposed to climate risks exhibit higher innovation activity, especially in green technologies. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Physical risks; Transition risks; Firms’ innovation |
| JEL: | Q54 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_003 |
| By: | Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen |
| Abstract: | Housing (un-)affordability has become a defining social and economic challenge in German cities, shaping both wealth accumulation and intergenerational inequality. We decompose affordability into two components: the ability to service monthly mortgage payments and the ability to meet the upfront cash requirements for purchasing a home. Combining data on regional mortgage financing conditions, household incomes, and house prices from 1980 to 2024, we find that mortgage payments relative to income have changed little over time. In stark contrast, upfront costs relative to income have risen sharply: whereas households in 1980-1990 needed savings of less than two years of annual income to cover the equity requirement for an apartment purchase, households in 2015-2024 require more than three years. These results show that focusing on mortgage costs alone severely understates the decline in housing affordability. Instead, rising entry costs have become the primary constraint on homeownership, reinforcing advantages for households with existing wealth or familial financial support. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:335893 |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra (University of Warwick); N.Meltem Daysal (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Louis Fréget (Paris-Dauphine PSL University); Jonas Cuzulan Hirani (VIVE); Priyama Majumdar (University of Warwick); Mircea Trandafir (Rockwool Foundation); Miriam Wüst (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Tom Zohar (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | Using Danish administrative data linked to two independent, validated postpartum depression screenings, we study how postpartum mental health shocks shape womens labor market trajectories. Event-study estimates show no pre-birth differences in trends between depressedand non-depressed mothers, but persistent employment gaps that widen immediately after birth. Health-care utilization patterns indicate that these differences reflect acute mental health shocks rather than pre-existing trends. The penalties are concentrated among less educated mothers and those in less family-friendly jobs. Our results highlight postpartum depression as a meaningful and unequal contributor to the motherhood penalty. |
| Keywords: | Postpartum depression, motherhood penalty, labor market inequality |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2601 |
| By: | Hundsdoerfer, Jochen; Löwe, Maren |
| Abstract: | We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages and employment through two channels: an inflation adjustment effect, where employees demand higher wages to compensate for VAT-induced price increases; and a profitability effect, where incomplete pass-through reduces firms' net sales and profits, putting downward pressure on wages and employment. We exploit variation in VAT rates, measuring labor market outcomes at the firm and country level. We find economically significant negative effects of VAT rates at the firm level on employee costs and at the country level on wages and employment. At the firm level, a one percentage point increase in the standard VAT rate corresponds to a 3.886% reduction in employee costs. At the country level, the same increase is associated with a 2.802% decline in average nominal wages. We find a 1.444% decline in employment at the country level following a one percentage point increase in the VAT rate. For working hours, the evidence is inconclusive and at most suggests a reduction. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that small firms and firms with high profit margins react stronger; among the employees, the age group 15-24 years is hit hardest. Our study provides the first systematic cross-country evidence on the labor market consequences of VATs. |
| Keywords: | VAT, Labor Supply, Labor Demand, Wages, VAT Incidence, Inflation, Wage Bargaining |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H22 H25 M51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:335902 |
| By: | Hundsdoerfer, Jochen; Löwe, Maren |
| Abstract: | We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages and employment through two channels: an inflation adjustment effect, where employees demand higher wages to compensate for VAT-induced price increases; and a profitability effect, where incomplete pass-through reduces firms' net sales and profits, putting downward pressure on wages and employment. We exploit variation in VAT rates, measuring labor market outcomes at the firm and country level. We find economically significant negative effects of VAT rates at the firm level on employee costs and at the country level on wages and employment. At the firm level, a one percentage point increase in the standard VAT rate corresponds to a 3.886% reduction in employee costs. At the country level, the same increase is associated with a 2.802% decline in average nominal wages. We find a 1.444% decline in employment at the country level following a one percentage point increase in the VAT rate. For working hours, the evidence is inconclusive and at most suggests a reduction. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that small firms and firms with high profit margins react stronger; among the employees, the age group 15-24 years is hit hardest. Our study provides the first systematic cross-country evidence on the labor market consequences of VATs. |
| Keywords: | VAT, Labor Supply, Labor Demand, Wages, VAT Incidence, Inflation, Wage Bargaining |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H22 H25 M51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:335900 |
| By: | Battistini, Niccolò; Neves, Pedro |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission’s business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for activity and prices. These composite BEI exhibit strong predictive power for near-term real GDP growth and GDP deflator inflation. To identify the underlying forces shaping expectations, we estimate sector-specific structural Bayesian vector autoregression models, combining responses on expectations and reported limits to production. According to the results, demand-side shocks, notably product demand and financial conditions, account for the bulk of fluctuations in business expectations, with heterogeneous effects across sectors. Supply-side shocks, notably materials supply and labour conditions, play a significant role in driving price expectations, especially during the post-pandemic inflationary period. Our results demonstrate the value of a granular survey-based modelling approach for real-time economic analysis and policy assessment. JEL Classification: C11, E10, E60 |
| Keywords: | business surveys, euro area, firms’ expectations, structural Bayesian VAR model |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263179 |
| By: | Audrey Bousselin; Anne Solaz |
| Abstract: | This paper adopts a child-centered perspective to study how children perceive their family’s economic situation. Using linked survey and administrative data for all children aged 8 to 12 living in Luxembourg, we compare children’s self-reported assessments of financial hardship with objective monetary indicators. While child-perceived and income-based financial situations are positively associated, there are substantial discrepancies. At a given level of monetary poverty, children living in single-parent households or in migrant families report higher levels of financial concern. Conditional on socio-demographic characteristics, monetary poverty and income insecurity explain little of the variation in perceived financial hardship. In contrast, the relative income position within schools and child-specific deprivation—particularly limitations in shared family activities—are strongly associated with higher level of financial worries. An analysis of discordance reveals an asymmetry. Overestimation of hardship among non-poor children is more likely for non-natives, those growing up in a lone family or who are poorer than their schoolmates, whereas underestimation among poor children shows weaker and less systematic correlates. These perception gaps matter: children who report perceived financial hardship display lower life satisfaction and worse self-rated health even when they are not monetarily poor, whereas poor children who do not report perceived hardship show well-being levels closer to those of non-poor peers. Overall, the findings indicate that children’s perceptions of economic hardship extend beyond their material living conditions and also reflects their social and emotional environment. |
| Keywords: | Child, Poverty, Income, Child well-being, Social comparison, Economic insecurity, Luxembourg, CONDITIONS ECONOMIQUES / ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, DEVELOPPEMENT DE L'ENFANT / CHILD DEVELOPMENT, CONDITIONS DE VIE / LIVING CONDITIONS, LUXEMBOURG / LUXEMBOURG, ENFANT / CHILDREN, PAUVRETE / POVERTY, REVENU / INCOME, BIEN-ETRE / WELL-BEING |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:b98y65sb0lquuda1-wse |
| By: | Ilka van de Werve (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Frank Weerman (Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law); Arjan Blokland (Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we employ a newly developed time series econometric approach to investigate the development in crime rates in various members states of the European Union (EU) between 1968 and 2019. We propose a panel data model with stochastically time-varying factors that also includes country-specific effects. This model enables us to evaluate the existence of a common EU crime trend, including a crime drop, to describe how individual countries depart from this common trend, and to estimate its association with macroeconomic and demographic explanatory variables. To have an equivocal measure of crime over the countries for the period of interest, we use homicide rates based on the Mortality Database from the World Health Organization. Results confirm the presence of a crime drop in the EU, be it stronger in Western EU countries than in Eastern EU countries. We also find that economic conditions explain a small portion of the crime trends in the EU; with macroeconomic activity (economic growth) being more relevant for Eastern EU countries, and macroeconomic performance (welfare growth) for Western EU countries. The young adult ratio (share of 25 to 34 year-olds in the total population) substantially explains the crime trend and drop in Western EU countries only. Our findings illustrate how the new model can be used to analyze the trends in crime, the fit from explanatory variables, and the differences in countries. |
| Keywords: | Crime Trends, Crime Drop, Macroeconomy, Time Series Econometrics, European Union |
| JEL: | C32 C51 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250053 |
| By: | Maria Chaykina (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) pension schemes convert accumulated pension wealth into an annuity, based on an average life expectancy at retirement. When longevity differs across social groups, a single conversion factor implies systematic transfers from shorter-lived to longer-lived individuals. This motivates proposals to differentiate benefits by socio-demographic characteristics related to life expectancy. We study whether such differentiation is perceived as fair using a survey experiment involving 3, 004 Italian residents aged 18-66. Respondents completed an incentivised allocation task used to elicit their fairness views and then evaluated six reform scenarios that adjust pension benefits based on gender, region, income, household wealth, workplace fatigue, and health status. The results show that the fatigue-based and wealth-based scenarios receive the highest support, whereas the gender-based and region-based scenarios are strongly opposed. Self-interest predicts approval, with higher support among those who stand to gain from a reform. Respondents with libertarian views are consistently less supportive of changes in benefits, while egalitarians and, to a lesser extent, liberal egalitarians are more favourable. Our results inform policymakers on the importance of citizens’ fairness perceptions for the implementation and communication of financially sustainable pension reforms. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, Fairness, Life Expectancy, Survey Experiment, Redistribution, Italy |
| JEL: | H55 D63 C91 C38 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:01/2026 |