|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Jannik Schumann (University of Finance and Administration (V?FS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how rising inflation affected household saving behavior in Germany between 2015 and 2022. Using longitudinal microdata from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a two-way fixed-effects design, we estimate the impact of monthly year-over-year inflation on different types of saving rates?retirement-specific, wealth-building, and overall savings?while controlling for household heterogeneity and common macro shocks. The results indicate that moderate inflation fluctuations before 2020 had negligible effects on savings. During the 2021?22 inflation surge, however, saving rates declined as households used savings to buffer higher living costs. Heterogeneity is notable: younger households slightly increased retirement contributions when inflation rose, whereas older households showed no adjustment. No significant effect was found for wealth-building savings. Regional analysis reveals that the modest positive response among young households was driven by West Germans, while East German households?facing lower incomes?experienced a sharper decline in overall saving. These findings highlight that inflation primarily erodes saving capacity rather than triggering major portfolio shifts. Policy implications include strengthening financial literacy, ensuring adequate pension indexation, and targeting relief to vulnerable groups, particularly in East Germany, to prevent long-term financial insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Young adults; Household finance; Saving behavior; Retirement saving; Wealth accumulation; Panel data; Germany; SOEP |
| JEL: | E31 D14 E21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15116506 |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (Universitat Jaume I, Economics department & INTECO Joint Research Unit); Juan Sapena (Catholic University of Valencia, Economics department & INTECO-Joint Research Unit); Cecilio Tamarit (University of Valencia, INTECO Joint Research Unit. Department of Applied Economics II) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates time-varying tax-tilting parameters for eleven EMU member states from 1970 to 2024 using a panel time-varying parameter state-space model that extends the traditional tax-smoothing framework to capture both common and country-specific dynamics. Core countries such as Austria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Finland display a more prudent fiscal stance, while peripheral countries, including Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, shift tax- ation toward the future, generating current deficits. These patterns are driven by differences between government discounting of future revenues and market rates, and are further influenced by structural factors such as aging populations and un- employment. Periods of negative real interest rates relax fiscal constraints, encour- aging governments to delay tax adjustments. The results underscore the need to reduce cross-country fiscal heterogeneity to strengthen long-term sustainability and advance fiscal integration in the Euro Area. |
| Keywords: | Tax-smoothing, time-varying cointegration, multiple structural breaks, Kalman Filter, Time-varying parameters, EU fiscal policy |
| JEL: | H62 E62 C22 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2514 |
| By: | Zainab Iftikhar; Anna Zaharieva |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of low-skill immigration on small businesses, wages, and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using data from the German SocioEconomic Panel (SOEP). Quantitative analysis shows that low-skill immigration increases the welfare of high-skill workers. It also leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. However, the gains are outweighed by the losses in welfare of low-skill workers, and overall, there is a marginal loss of per-worker welfare to the economy. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, small business, self-employment, search frictions, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_714 |
| By: | Alessio MITRA (European Commission); Konstantinos NIAKAROS (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the causal impact of the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation on financial firm-level outcomes using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach. We use administrative data from CORDA and financial data from ORBIS spanning from 2010 to 2022, for a sample of approximately 40 thousand unique private companies that applied for Horizon 2020 funding. The findings suggest that firms receiving Horizon 2020 grants exhibit an average increase of 20% in employment and about 30% in total assets and revenues, compared to comparable companies in the control group, in the years after receiving their first grant. Positive effects persist even after 2.5 years, which is the average duration of a project in our sample. Companies in the “Information and communication” and “Professional, scientific and technical activities” NACE sectors are driving the results, while other sectors show insignificant effects. |
| Keywords: | Research and Innovation funding, impact assessment, econometric methods, spillover effects, mediation analysis, policy evaluation |
| JEL: | O32 O38 C18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-bd-23-010-en-n |
| By: | Sonia Falconieri; Marcelo Ortiz; Francisco Urzua; Paolo Volpin |
| Abstract: | Since Norway’s board gender reform in 2003, many European countries have introduced gender targets for the boards of listed firms. We examine how these regulations affected the gender of newly appointed chief executive officers (CEOs) in private firms. Using crosscountry and industry-level variation in exposure to the reform, we document an 8 to 13 percent increase in the number of appointments of female CEOs in industries with listed firms subject to the reforms, and no change in industries without such exposure. The effect is stronger in countries with mandatory quotas and where board appointments are more salient. The results indicate that board gender regulations generated positive spillover effects beyond the targeted listed firms, increasing the representation of women in top executive positions in private firms; however, they did not lead to a broader country-level cultural shift. |
| Keywords: | Board quotas, female CEOs, private firms |
| JEL: | G14 G34 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1926 |
| By: | Chort, Isabelle; Hasni, Aicha; Öktem, Berk |
| Abstract: | In 2013, the European Union Common Agricultural Policy introduced a set of compulsory greening measures in its subsidies scheme in order to achieve environmental goals. We analyse the impact of this reform, and particularly the definition of Ecological Focus Areas (EFA), on bird diversity in France. We match bird observations from the French Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to parcel level information on agricultural land use and type of crops. We exploit the heterogeneous exposure of bird observation sites to the reform depending on their ex-ante extent of arable area in a continuous difference-in-differences approach. We find evidence of an increase in overall bird abundance after 2015 in sites with a higher ex-ante proportion of arable land, driven by a small number of generalist species, and no impact on species richness and phylogenetic diversity. A decomposition by diet type suggests that vertebrate eaters were positively impacted by the reform. By contrast, cropland species experienced the most dramatic decline after 2015 in sites with a higher share of arable area. Estimations of the dynamic effects of the reform suggest that the observed positive effects on bird abundance were limited to the first two years after its implementation. Based on observational data, our findings confirm previous concerns regarding the effectiveness of the 2013 reform in preserving biodiversity. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356748 |
| By: | Sonia Falconieri; Paolo F. Volpin; Francisco Urzúa; Marcelo Ortiz |
| Abstract: | Since Norway's board gender reform in 2003, many European countries have introduced gender targets for the boards of listed firms. We examine how these regulations affected the gender of newly appointed chief executive officers (CEOs) in private firms. Using cross- country and industry-level variation in exposure to the reform, we document an 8 to 13 percent increase in the number of appointments of female CEOs in industries with listed firms subject to the reforms, and no change in industries without such exposure. The effect is stronger in countries with mandatory quotas and where board appointments are more salient. The results indicate that board gender regulations generated positive spillover effects beyond the targeted listed firms, increasing the representation of women in top executive positions in private firms; however, they did not lead to a broader country-level cultural shift. |
| Keywords: | board quotas, female CEOs, private firms |
| JEL: | G14 G34 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1532 |
| By: | Doris Läpple (University of Göttingen); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Goedele van den Broeck (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Pauline Lécole (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Yann de Mey (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Jaap Sok (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]) |
| Abstract: | The 2024 farmers' protests across Europe signaled widespread dissatisfaction in the agricultural sector. While low farm incomes and restrictive environmental regulations are commonly cited grievances, little is known about underlying motivations and individual farmers' reasons for protesting. This study explores individual farmers' protest motivations in Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands to gain a deeper understanding of the diverse concerns shaping agricultural discontent across Europe. We analyze rich text data from 2232 farmers, collected through surveys using an open-ended question designed to elicit unprompted, top-of-mind protest reasons. By using a combination of hand and AI-assisted coding, we quantify protest reasons across countries, assess the emotional tone of farmers' answers, and explore how this aligns with policy responses. Our findings indicate that farmers' main protest reasons differ across the four countries, with German farmers mainly complaining about bureaucracy, French farmers about financial reasons, Belgian farmers expressing diverse complaints, while Dutch farmers focus mainly on the political environment. The emotional tone of farmers' answers reveals that specific, targeted complaints are more often expressed in an annoyed angry tone, while broader topics seem to trigger aggressive anger. Linking farmers' protest reasons to national and EU policy responses shows that, while some key complaints received adequate policy attention, environmental complaints were disproportionately prioritized by EU policymakers and some Member States. The findings from this study have important implications with the potential to improve the effectiveness of policy responses by contributing to the identification of adequate solutions to ease farmers' grievances. |
| Keywords: | Open-ended survey question, Agricultural policy, Text-analysis, Farmers' protests |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05365140 |
| By: | Pasquale Accardo (University of Bath); Adriano Amati (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia); Giovanni Mastrobuoni (Collegio Carlo Alberto; University of Turin; University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | This study uses a unique longitudinal data set on daily museum visits in Northern Italy to investigate how social networks influence leisure consumption. Based on detailed administrative records of museum cardholders, we use repeated joint visits to build a dynamic network of peers. We identify peer effects that exploit exogenous variation in membership prices generated by age-based discounts. We find robust evidence of peer spillovers in both museum attendance and membership renewal, primarily driven by a preference for shared experiences. These results underscore the role of social interactions in shaping leisure demand and support the view that social networks can amplify individual behavior. More broadly, our findings contribute to the understanding of peer dynamics in settings where consumption is inherently social. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eid:wpaper:58192 |
| By: | Brugiavini, Agar; Di Cataldo, Marco; Romani, Giulia |
| Abstract: | The spatial concentration of knowledge-intensive activities can generate multiplicative effects at the local level. This paper examines how employment growth in knowledge-intensive and tradable sectors affects wage, days worked, and internal migration of non-tradable workers in Italy. We leverage matched employer-employee data (2005–2019) to track individuals across jobs and locations. Our empirical strategy combines a two-step estimation with a shift-share instrument to disentangle the roles of worker sorting and local spillovers. We find that knowledge sector expansion increases the number of days worked locally and attracts non-tradable workers. It also raises nominal wages, but only when sorting is not accounted for, suggesting selective inflows of more productive workers into knowledge hubs. However, rising local living costs offset nominal wage gains, leading to lower real wages. |
| Keywords: | labour demand shocks; knowledge economy; local spillovers; sorting; Italy |
| JEL: | J23 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130106 |
| By: | Bianca CAVICCHI (European Commission); Oceane PEIFFER SMADJA (European Commission); Julien RAVET (European Commission,) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the European Framework Programme (FP) for Research and Innovation's (R&I) evolution over the last two decades, focusing on its integration of Transformative Innovation Policy (TIP) elements. Our objective is to assess whether the European Framework Programme for R&I has evolved to include elements of R&I policy for societal challenges and transformative change (Transformative Innovation Policy) and offer related policy recommendations. We do so by analysing the Framework Programme from 2002 to 2023 through within-case and cross-case studies using systems dynamics. It provides original insights into applying the TIP framework and system dynamics to evaluate R&I public policies targeting systemic societal shifts. We demonstrate that, while the EU FP for R&I has progressively incorporated transformative elements like demand articulation and policy coordination, room for improvement remains in terms of reflexivity. Our findings also emphasize the interdependence of transformative features, necessitating ongoing adaptations throughout the policy cycle to reinforce the FP's transformative nature. |
| Keywords: | European Framework Programme, Research and Innovation, Transformative Innovation Policy, Systems Dynamics, Policy Evolution |
| JEL: | F15 F36 O16 E44 G1 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-bd-23-012-en-n |
| By: | Mazza, Jan |
| Abstract: | Using Italian microdata, this paper documents that, conditional on parental resources, education, and transfers, (i) expecting an inheritance predicts a 19.6 percentage points (63.5%) higher probability of university enrollment, and (ii) expected heirs tend to belong to altruistic dynasties, since having received an inheritance nearly doubles the intention to leave a bequest. I rationalize these findings with a stylized model where dynastic altruism underpins expected heirs’ stronger bequest motives. They accumulate human capital to increase lifetime income, hence the ability to finance bequests. The quantitative model attributes 44% of the gap in student rates between expected heirs and the rest to dynastic bequest motives, 35% to coresidence with parents and inter vivos transfers, whereas the expected wealth transfer itself has a strong negative effect on education. Policy counterfactuals show that inheritance taxation raises enrollment, especially when it funds student grants, and that the link between inheritance expectations and education is stronger when the discounted returns to education are lower. These findings help explain intergenerational persistence in education, wealth, and income, and highlight how inheritance taxation can affect the level and composition of human capital. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6dzwq_v1 |
| By: | Yoann Morin (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Martin Regnaud (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marie-Laure Breuillé (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Julie Le Gallo (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of the rent control regulation implemented by the city of Paris in July 2019 on the Parisian rental market. We take advantage of the large amount of real-time data available on the SeLoger platform containing the ads published by professional realtors. Using a database of 559, 300 observations from January 2018 to June 2023, we apply a difference-in-differences model, where control units are located in eight major French cities in which the rental market is particularly tense but not regulated during the analysis period. We show that the rent control policy decreased rents by 3.7% to 4.2% in Paris on average. Yet, the effect of the policy is heterogeneous depending on dwelling characteristics, with a stronger effect on small apartments. We also estimate the upper bound of the effectiveness of the policy and show that if every dwelling respected the rent control, rents would have decreased by 8.2% to 8.7%. We confirm the effectiveness of the rent control policy by extending the analysis to five additional regulated cities using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, which reinforces the external validity of our findings. Finally, we examine whether the policy affected the supply of rental housing, proxied by the number of new listings published by agencies. We find no evidence of a decline in supply attributable to the rent control |
| Keywords: | Rent control Rental market Paris Real-estate market platform Difference |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05315123 |
| By: | Kai A. Konrad; Marcel Thum |
| Abstract: | The authors address the challenges of the new security situation for Germany in light of current geopolitical conflicts and the potential weakening of the security guarantees of the US for Europe. The article challenges the assumption that the solution to the problem is simply more money and more soldiers. Rather, the focus should be on structural reforms at the European level in the areas of procurement, defense organization, and industrial policy in the European defense industry. |
| JEL: | F52 F55 H41 L52 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2024-14 |
| By: | Lazar, Cristina; Asalos, Nicoleta; Bostan, Ionel |
| Abstract: | Background and aim: The article investigates the systemic deficiencies and risks in Romania’s municipal waste management system during the post-pandemic period, focusing on the role of external public audit missions conducted by the Romanian Court of Accounts. The main objective is to assess the risk of infringement procedures against Romania due to persistent non-compliance with EU environmental directives. Scope and limitations: The research concentrates on the period 2015–2021, with particular emphasis on the case of Constanța County, and is limited to the analysis of official audit reports and regulatory frameworks. Methods: The study employs a qualitative methodology based on document analysis, comparative evaluation of legal frameworks, and synthesis of audit findings, with emphasis on compliance, infrastructure, and institutional performance. Results: Findings highlight significant shortcomings: delayed closure of non-compliant landfills, insufficient implementation of selective collection and recycling, lack of a functional electronic traceability system, and weak monitoring by central and local authorities. Constanța County illustrates critical infrastructural and contractual deficiencies that compromise EU compliance targets. Conclusions: Romania remains at high risk of EU sanctions due to poor waste management performance, limited strategic coordination, and underuse of European funding. Originality: The article provides an integrated perspective by linking external audit findings to broader systemic vulnerabilities in the post-pandemic context. Practical implications: The study offers actionable recommendations for improving compliance, strengthening administrative capacity, and ensuring alignment with EU circular economy goals, thus supporting policymakers and practitioners in sustainable waste governance. |
| Keywords: | Municipal waste management, external public audit, Constanța county (Romania), environmental compliance, EU infringement risk. |
| JEL: | H6 H61 H8 H83 M4 M42 M48 Q5 Q59 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126535 |
| By: | Tizian Dick (University of Regensburg, Institute of Economics and Econometrics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on Germany?s third?pillar pensions by separating market entry from within-pillar product choice and by introducing an aggregated subsidized margin that summarizes selection into Riester/Basis relative to purely unsubsidized Private plans. Using recent, nationally representative microdata (2019?2023), we estimate a two-stage framework: a binary participation model and, conditional on entry, a multinomial product-choice mode. Two contributions are distinctive. First, we provide the first unified evidence on Basis and unsubsidized Private contracts alongside Riester, moving beyond a Riester-centric literature. Second, our subsidized margin offers a policy-relevant measure of how fiscal incentives reallocate choices within the pillar, invariant to base-category normalization. At the extensive margin, participation is governed primarily by labor-market attachment and position in the income distribution. Households with stable earnings and strong links to formal employment are much more likely to enter, while low and irregular earners remain underrepresented. Participation exhibits a reverse gender gap: women outpace men in third-pillar take-up. At the intensive margin, choices track institutional design. Higher incomes tilt selections away from allowance-based contracts and toward tax-deductible alternatives, with the self-employed showing a marked preference for the latter. On the subsidized margin, income effects largely offset in the aggregate, yet the nature of earnings remains decisive. These findings point to policy that targets entry frictions and preserves product neutrality because participation and not within-pillar reallocation is the margin on which the system binds. |
| Keywords: | Third-Pillar Pension, Riester Pension, Basis Pension, Rürup Pension, Private Pension, Retirement Saving, Subsidies and Tax Incentives, Household Finance, Extensive and Intensive Margins |
| JEL: | D14 G22 H55 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15416970 |
| By: | Hellsten, Mark (University of Tubingen); Khanna, Shantanu (Northeastern University); Lodefalk, Magnus (The Ratio Institute); Yakymovych, Yaroslav (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Labor markets; Hiring; Task content; Technological change |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0386 |
| By: | Anne-Claire Savy (LGTO - Laboratoire de Gestion et des Transitions Organisationnelles - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse) |
| Keywords: | durable, systémique, fait social total, société circulaire transformative |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05356187 |
| By: | Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Matthias Westphal |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we examine a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, lifetime effects, education, gender gap |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12274 |
| By: | Sevilla Sanz, Maria Almudena; Cuevas Ruiz, Pilar; Rello, Luz; Sanz, Ismael |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computer-Assisted Learning (CAL) offer powerful tools to improve foundational skills and close educational gaps, with evidence showing meaningful gains in student performance, especially in mathematics. Recent advancements in these technologies have generated optimism about their transformative potential in classrooms worldwide. These technologies are increasingly being piloted at scale, reshaping the way teachers deliver content and students engage with material. However, their impact depends less on access to devices and more on how they are integrated into teaching—through curriculum alignment, teacher training, and interactive design that promotes active learning. Without careful implementation, these tools risk widening existing inequalities. Using new evidence from Italy, we show that digital divides in AI adoption persist across schools and regions, reflecting broader social and economic disparities. Our findings suggest that realising the potential of AI in education requires inclusive policies and targeted investment to ensure no student is left behind, and that the benefits of digital innovation are shared equitably. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence in education; computer-assisted learning; AI-guided tutors; digital divide; PISA; Italian schools |
| JEL: | I21 O33 C88 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130010 |
| By: | Committee, International Relations; Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo; de Almeida, Ana M.; Lovin, Horatiu |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at how Brexit has affected trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between the United Kingdom and the EU. In 2020 the United Kingdom and the EU signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) , establishing the post-Brexit relationship and, in particular, a tariff-free area for goods produced in either of the two economies. However, non-tariff barriers to the trading of goods and services have emerged. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU has affected its attractiveness as an investment target. We analyse recent developments in UK imports and exports with the EU and the rest of the world, in both goods and services, including financial services and tourism. Our estimates suggest that, after the Brexit transition period, UK exports to the EU contracted by almost 40%, due to the emergence of non-tariff barriers with the EU, and the fact that no significant UK trade flows were redirected to other partners. Finally, the analysis of product-level data on German, French, Italian and Spanish exports to the United Kingdom has confirmed the significant negative impact of Brexit, especially for goods highly exposed or highly sensitive to increases in trade costs. The FDI analysis begins with a conjunctural assessment that includes recent trends in EU-UK FDI at a broad level (including sectoral and geographical details), a breakdown of foreign affiliates and an investigation of new FDI projects and jobs in the United Kingdom. The analysis continues with developments in the UK financial sector in terms of the real economy, FDI flows, banks, insurance companies and pension funds, and the evolving status of the United Kingdom as a leading global financial centre. Finally, our analysis also provides an econometric investigation into the potential impact of Brexit on EU-UK FDI, using a gravity model approach. […] JEL Classification: F14, F15, F21 |
| Keywords: | Brexit, FDI, global value chains, trade |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2025379 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki |
| Abstract: | Abstract After several decades, Finland has released an industrial policy strategy, joining other European nations such as Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom in doing so. We compare the arguments put forward by countries regarding the necessity of such a strategy. Geopolitical tensions are a common concern, as are international dependencies that could jeopardize national security. Additional justifications related to market failures include state aid competition and the clean transition or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike the other three countries, the UK’s strategy emphasizes seeking opportunities rather than merely addressing problems and challenges. |
| Keywords: | Business affairs policy, Industrial policy, Motives, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics |
| JEL: | L52 L53 H25 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:165 |
| By: | Walk, Marten |
| Abstract: | How do asset prices shape the wealth distribution? Motivated by the different trajectories of European housing markets after the financial crisis, this thesis examines how capital gains, particularly in housing, influence wealth inequality in Europe. Drawing on the ECB’s new Distributional Wealth Accounts, the analysis uses panel regressions that exploit cross-country variation in housing markets. The results show that asset prices have first-order consequences on the wealth distribution, driven by differences in portfolio composition across population groups. Rising house prices benefit the middle 40% and especially the bottom 50%, while a booming stock market concentrates gains in the top 10%. These effects are robust across specifications but vary substantially across countries, reflecting institutional and portfolio differences. Simulations of alternative price scenarios show that housing booms can slow concentration. However, no country saw house prices grow fast enough to reverse the upward trend in top wealth shares in Europe. Together, the results provide detailed insights into the distributional effects of asset prices in Europe, with implications for both monetary and housing policy. |
| Keywords: | Wealth Inequality, Asset Prices, Distributional Wealth Accounts, Europe, House Prices |
| JEL: | D14 D63 E21 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126040 |
| By: | Giulia Bettin (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Silvia Mattiozzi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of severe manufacturing crises on internal migration patterns across Italian local labour markets (LLMs) between 2000 and 2019. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of these shocks on the mobility of the working-age resident population. The results indicate a significant decline in net migration, primarily driven by an immediate reduction in inflows, which is nearly twice the size of the concurrent rise in outflows to other LLMs. We uncover substantial heterogeneity by citizenship, as foreign nationals are significantly less likely to migrate into affected areas following a crisis, while no systematic differences emerge by gender. The effects are more evident in district-based LLMs, moderately urbanized areas, and those located in Central and Northern Italy. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and difference-in-differences estimators. These findings highlight the uneven impact of manufacturing decline on internal migration patterns across both population groups and LLM characteristics. |
| Keywords: | internal mobility, manufacturing crises, mass lay-offs, local labour markets |
| JEL: | J61 J63 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:501 |
| By: | Julien Kervio (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Magali Dubosson (HES-SO - Haute Ecole Spécialisée de Suisse Occidentale); Christophe Schmitt (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a renewed understanding of sustainability for services within the framework of Society 5.0. While sustainable services have long been defined by the Triple Bottom Line approach, i.e. simultaneously addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions, this paradigm often neglects the transformative impact of digital technologies on service ecosystems. Building on an extensive literature review, we conceptualize sustainability as a dynamic, multi-dimensional construct shaped by emerging socio-technical systems. We integrate Service-Dominant Logic (SDL) and the IHIP characteristics of services to highlight how intangibility, co-creation, and relational dynamics uniquely position services to foster sustainable value. Our analysis distinguishes between weak sustainability, which relies on technological substitution to mitigate environmental degradation, and strong sustainability, which embeds ecological limits and human well-being at the core of service design. Within Society 5.0, advanced technologies such as AI, IoT, and cyber-physical systems offer opportunities to optimize resource use, enhance social inclusion, and regenerate ecosystems. However, true sustainability requires systemic changes in values and governance, challenging growth-oriented paradigms. We develop a conceptual framework that bridges ecological economics and service research, showing how services can evolve into human-centered, technologically enabled ecosystems that harmonize economic viability, social equity, and environmental resilience. This work contributes to advancing sustainable service theory by offering an integrative, future-oriented perspective that aligns digital transformation with strong sustainability principles. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une nouvelle conception de la durabilité des services dans le cadre de la Société 5.0. Si les services durables ont longtemps été définis par l'approche du triple résultat, c'est-à-dire la prise en compte simultanée des dimensions économiques, sociales et environnementales, ce paradigme néglige souvent l'impact transformateur des technologies numériques sur les écosystèmes de services. Sur la base d'une analyse approfondie de la littérature, nous conceptualisons la durabilité comme une construction dynamique et multidimensionnelle façonnée par les systèmes socio-techniques émergents. Nous intégrons la logique dominante des services (SDL) et les caractéristiques IHIP des services afin de mettre en évidence la manière dont l'intangibilité, la co-création et la dynamique relationnelle positionnent de manière unique les services pour favoriser la valeur durable. Notre analyse distingue la durabilité faible, qui repose sur la substitution technologique pour atténuer la dégradation de l'environnement, et la durabilité forte, qui intègre les limites écologiques et le bien-être humain au cœur de la conception des services. Dans le cadre de la société 5.0, les technologies avancées telles que l'IA, l'IoT et les systèmes cyber-physiques offrent des possibilités d'optimiser l'utilisation des ressources, d'améliorer l'inclusion sociale et de régénérer les écosystèmes. Cependant, une véritable durabilité nécessite des changements systémiques en matière de valeurs et de gouvernance, remettant en question les paradigmes axés sur la croissance. Nous développons un cadre conceptuel qui fait le pont entre l'économie écologique et la recherche sur les services, montrant comment les services peuvent évoluer vers des écosystèmes centrés sur l'humain et rendus possibles par la technologie, qui harmonisent la viabilité économique, l'équité sociale et la résilience environnementale. Ce travail contribue à faire progresser la théorie des services durables en offrant une perspective intégrative et tournée vers l'avenir qui aligne la transformation numérique sur les principes de la durabilité forte. |
| Keywords: | degrowth, sustainable services, services, society 5.0, strong sustainability, weak sustainability, Sustainability, services durables, Décroissance, société 5.0, Services, Durabilité faible, Durabilité forte, Durabilté |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05346673 |
| By: | Aisha Baisalova |
| Abstract: | The availability of lower-taxed goods in neighboring states incentivizes consumers to make cross-border purchases. Using transaction-level data from the NielsenIQ Consumer Panel, we analyze how proximity to a lower-tax state affects the pass-through of tax to cigarette prices. We analytically formulate tax pass-through to prices as the “true†passthrough rate attenuated by the “border effect†. The “border effect†refers to the impact of cross-state purchasing behavior on the extent to which excise taxes are passed on to cigarette prices. We model the border effect as an exponential function that decreases with distance from the lower-tax state, reaching the highest value at the border itself and diminishing to zero at large distances. We estimate the parameters of the “border effect†function by employing an exponential regression model with location, time, and UPC fixed effects. The results of the robustness check, where we estimate a segmented regression using separate tax pass-through estimates for a range of distance intervals, support the linear pattern observed in the exponential model. We also extend the model to account for the tax differential between the home state and the nearest lower-tax state and perform a comparative analysis of the two model specifications. In addition to geographic variation, we also analyze how the pass-through of cigarette taxes varies across different demographic groups. High-income households face the highest tax pass-through and are largely unaffected by border proximity, while middle-income households are affected by the “border effect†only when the distance from the lower-tax state does not exceed 90 kilometers. Low-income households remain sensitive to “border effects†at greater distances, though their responsiveness declines beyond 200 kilometers. Moreover, consumers who are not engaged in paid employment exhibit significantly lower pass-through, suggesting greater scope for tax avoidance through flexible shopping behavior. |
| Keywords: | excise taxation, cigarettes, tax pass-through rate, cross-state purchasing, tax avoidance, border effects |
| JEL: | D12 H26 H71 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp804 |
| By: | Natalia Fabra; Clément Leblanc; Mateus Souza |
| Abstract: | The 2021‐2023 European energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, led to broad policy interventions in energy markets. In contrast to the retail‐side measures and public transfers implemented elsewhere, Spain and Portugal targeted the wholesale electricity market through the so‐called Iberian solution. We quantify the distributional implications of the crisis and this market intervention on Spanish electricity firms and across consumer groups. We find that the crisis shifted substantial wealth from consumers to generators, with regressive impacts among consumers. Conversely, the policy’s relief was progressive, delivering larger gains to lower- income groups. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis, electricity markets, distributional implications, machine learning. |
| JEL: | L94 D30 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_716 |
| By: | Hellsten, Mark; Khanna, Shantanu; Lodefalk, Magnus; Yakymovych, Yaroslav |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, Labor markets, Hiring, Task content, Technological change |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1692 |
| By: | Ventura, Luigi; Horioka, Charles Yuji |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we first show that a particular form of precautionary saving, which we will call "intertemporal precautionary saving" to distinguish it from purely intertemporal and purely precautionary saving, will inevitably arise in the case of pure (downside) risk as long as consumers are risk-averse, even if they are not prudent. We then present a simple example that shows that even pure precautionary saving (i.e., saving generated by risk alone without effects on expected income) may arise as long as consumers are risk-averse, even if they are not prudent and even if risk is speculative (two-sided). |
| Keywords: | household saving, precautionary saving, prudence, pure risk, risk aversion, saving, speculative risk |
| JEL: | D11 D14 D15 D81 E21 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000255 |
| By: | Hellsten, Mark (University of Tübingen); Khanna, Shantanu (Northeastern University); Lodefalk, Magnus (Örebro University School of Business); Yakymovych, Yaroslav (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reshape labor markets, yet causal evidence remains scarce. We exploit a novel Swedish subsidy program that encouraged small and mid-sized firms to adopt AI. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design comparing awarded and non-awarded firms, we find that AI subsidies led to a sustained increase in job postings over five years, but with no statistically detectable change in employment. This pattern reflects hiring signals concentrated in AI occupations and white-collar roles. Our findings align with task-based models of automation, in which AI adoption reconfigures work and spurs demand for new skills, but hiring frictions and the need for complementary investments delay workforce expansion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Labor markets; Hiring; Task content; Technological change |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2025_013 |
| By: | van Dalen, Hendrik Peter (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Henkens, Kène (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:dda26a55-c0b6-4c1f-b37c-053c7fa9687c |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Urban competitiveness in Europe and all over the world is stronger than ever. The Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) industry is one of the most recent strategic tools which helps the economic development of the cities and their branding. This study analyses competitiveness of Prague, Bucharest, and Rome to attract international business and more European Union funds using the MICE industry. The three cities have different approaches to use MICE industry that reflect their European and world branding, historical, cultural and economic contexts. The study evaluates three key points: MICE infrastructure and capacity, urban branding strategies, and the absorption of EU funds to improve competitiveness. Data collected from EU reports, policy analyses and national and city studies are confronted with competitiveness and branding theories to identify development trends. Prague combines particular heritage with modern MICE facilities and demonstrates consistent know how in utilising EU funds. Bucharest offers a low cost skilled workforce and underlines innovation but lacks brand visibility and has difficulties with fund absorption. Rome has a global prestige and cultural heritage which brings a lot of advantages but faces structural challenges: high costs, infrastructure age, economic structure. The study concludes that the three key points are vital for competitiveness. Recommendations are: stronger public private cooperation, integrated branding policies, and cross city collaboration in Europe for attracting premium MICE. |
| Keywords: | MICE Industry, Urban Competitiveness, City Branding, European Cohesion Policy, Central Eastern Europe, Comparative Urban Studies |
| JEL: | F00 M38 O57 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15316954 |
| By: | Johannes König (DIW Berlin - Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung = German Institute for Economic Research); Christian Schluter (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Southampton); Carsten Schröder (DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) |
| Abstract: | Who makes it to the top? We use the leading socio-economic survey in Germany, supplemented by extensive data on the rich, to answer this question. We identify the key predictors for belonging to the top 1 percent of income, wealth, and both distributions jointly. Although we consider many, only a few traits matter: Entrepreneurship and self-employment in conjunction with a sizable inheritance of company assets is the most important covariate combination across all rich groups. Our data suggest that all top 1 percent groups, but especially the joint top 1 percent, are predominantly populated by intergenerational entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | top wealth, top income, rich-group classification modeling, predictions, intergenerational transfers |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05084522 |
| By: | Jonas Cederl\"of; Sara Roman |
| Abstract: | We study how job search behavior evolves over the unemployment spell and the extent to which job seekers experience duration dependence in callbacks. Leveraging data on 2.4 million monthly activity reports containing detailed information on job applications, interviews, and other search activities, we separate within-spell changes from dynamic selection with a time-and-spell fixed effects design. We find that raw search effort increases with unemployment duration, but this pattern reflects dynamic selection: within-spell search effort remains flat and declines sharply in the months preceding re-employment. Around unemployment insurance (UI) exhaustion, search effort drops by approximately 10%, likely due to participation in labor market programs crowding out job search. Reported interviews indicate that callbacks decline by 6% per month, but only 10--14% of this decline reflects ``true'' duration dependence. Finally, we document substantial heterogeneity: search effort and duration dependence vary strongly by age, and job seekers in tight labor markets experience about 50% more duration dependence. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03377 |
| By: | Belotti, Emanuele; Bortolotti, Alberto; Coppola, Alessandro; Corcillo, Piero; Cordini, Marta; Hodkinson, Stuart; Watt, Paul |
| Abstract: | Research on housing financialisation in North America and Europe has explored the growing role of institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as both funders and owners of residential housing. Several investment waves and different entry points have been identified, from opportunistic acquisitions related to early public housing privatisations in Northern Europe, the predatory grabbing of distressed assets in the United States and Europe following the global financial crisis, to the more recent long-term corporate landlordism under ‘financialisation 2.0’. Following recent scholarship on the essential de-risking role of the state in this process, this article compares the rise of institutional investment in different Build-to-Rent sectors of London and Milan to bring new insights on the role of the state in de-risking urban space through ‘mega-event urbanism’. We show how the exceptional state intervention involved in making the London 2012 Olympics and the 2015 Milan Expo worked hand-in-glove with long-term neoliberal path dependencies and the global financial crisis to de-risk institutional investment in local rental markets and boost new asset class formation. |
| Keywords: | corporate landlords; institutional investors; mega-events; neoliberalism; planning; rental housing; state de-risking |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130247 |
| By: | Eleonora Brandimarti |
| Abstract: | Higher education often requires choosing a bachelor's and a master's degree, yet the returns of these combined choices and the role of courses in different disciplines remain understudied. This paper addresses this gap using detailed data on Italian graduates and university programs. I study the labor market returns to combinations of bachelor's and master's degrees and investigate how curriculum characteristics affect outcomes. I exploit exogenous variation in access to bachelor's and master's degrees to causally estimate the returns to 43 combinations of degrees. I organize the data in a nested model with exogenous variation in admission requirements and explore the preference profile of the sample through policy simulations that shift these requirements. I then relate the estimated returns to the academic curriculum of degrees, focusing on the role of quantitative education and timing of courses. I contribute to the literature on returns to advanced degrees by incorporating master's degrees in the discussion on how higher education affects outcomes and providing evidence on the characteristics of curricula that are positively related to labor market returns. The findings reveal substantial variation in returns to degree combinations, even among combinations with the same bachelor's degree, indicating the need to consider both types of programs. Combinations of degrees in different disciplines positively impact economic outcomes, while those in the same field perform worse. Successful combinations feature more non-quantitative education in the bachelor's, and quantitative courses alone do not explain higher returns. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.09260 |
| By: | Guillaume Toussaint; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | In an ageing region such as Europe, the question of the link between housing prices and demographics is an important issue. According to Eurostat, the fertility rate in 2024 was 1.53 children per woman, below the threshold for population growth of 2.1 children per woman. France, the European Union country with the highest number of children per woman in 2024 (INSEE, 2024), remains below the 2.1 threshold (the rate is 1.84). So, as in all ageing countries, the question of access to property arises. Indeed, as shown by Yang (2009), housing is perceived as a secured asset, which means that housing capital does not necessarily decrease with age, unlike consumption. This raises the question of access to housing for the younger generations, what Yates (2011) called “housing structural sustainability”, or “the needs of the present generation [that] can be met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.This article aim to analyze the housing structural sustainability in France through a quantitative analysis of the variation of the housing stock in France between 2012 and 2022. From an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions, we train a machine learning model to estimate a price for the entire housing stock based on a tax file dataset. Thanks to this new dataset, we take a comprehensive look at housing ownership between 2012 and 2022 and question the role of ageing in the concentration of wealth, which answers the following question: to what extent does ageing affect housing structural sustainability?This work is an original contribution in that it attempts to measure the concept of housing structural sustainability introduced by Yates through an exhaustive database of the housing stock in France and a spatial econometrics analysis. |
| Keywords: | Ageing; housing; Mass Appraisal; Structural sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_26 |
| By: | Igor CZERMAINSKI de OLIVEIRA (European Commission); Bianca CAVICCHI (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on two critical technological domains: mRNA technology in biotechnology and green hydrogen in clean energy, aligning with Ursula von der Leyen’s political guidelines for the 2024–2029 (European Commission, 2024c). mRNA technology represents a breakthrough in precision medicine, through its rapid, scalable and adaptable solutions, enhancing health resilience and long-term societal well-being. Similarly, green hydrogen is central to achieving climate neutrality and strategic autonomy under the European Green Deal, as it provides a pathway for industrial decarbonisation and energy security. The study demonstrates that system dynamics modelling can contribute significantly to the ex-ante impact assessment and, potentially, to ex-post evaluations of research and innovation (R&I) policies and policy portfolios. This methodological approach captures the complex interdependencies and non-linearities inherent in innovation systems, providing policymakers with a better, evidence-based understanding of how R&I policy measures interact over time and what plausible medium- and long-term outcomes different policy interventions may yield on competitive sustainability. Enriching a pipeline view of the innovation process by considering delays and feedback mechanisms brings these analytical possibilities but also emphasises on a deterministic view of the innovation process that is more consistent with the reality of research organisations and corporations than startups and other types of innovative organisations. |
| Keywords: | Research and Innovation funding, impact assessment, econometric methods, spillover effects, mediation analysis, policy evaluation |
| JEL: | O32 O38 C18 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-01-24-079-en-n |
| By: | Egshiglen Batbayar; Christoph Breunig; Peter Haan; Boryana Ilieva |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to estimate selection-corrected quantiles of the gender wage gap. Our method employs instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent variable but, conditional on the latent process, do not directly affect selection. We provide semiparametric identification of the quantile parameters without imposing parametric restrictions on the selection probability, derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator based on constrained selection probability weighting, and demonstrate how the approach applies to the Roy model of labor supply. Using German administrative data, we analyze the distribution of the gender gap in full-time earnings. We find pronounced positive selection among women at the lower end, especially those with less education, which widens the gender gap in this segment, and strong positive selection among highly educated men at the top, which narrows the gender wage gap at upper quantiles. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.16187 |
| By: | Lisa Keding (RWTH University); Marten C. Ritterrath (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | We show that personal experiences affect high-stakes economic decisions among inventors. Using matched patent and survey data from French and German inventors linked to natural disaster records, we exploit exogenous variation in disaster exposure. Inventors personally affected by natural disasters subsequently produce 8.2% more green patents, primarily driven by emission-reducing mitigation technologies, while non-green innovation remains unaffected. The absence of sizable spatial spillovers highlights the importance of personal experience. Disaster exposure shapes innovation choices by altering profitability expectations through shifting higher-order beliefs about consumer demand and anticipated regulation. Embedding this channel in a formal model, we disentangle the role of expectations and intrinsic motivation. The model predicts, and the data confirm, that effects are strongest in competitive markets, where profit incentives matter most. |
| Keywords: | Inventors, Personal Experiences, Green Innovation, Expectation Formation, Natural Disasters |
| JEL: | D9 D84 O31 O34 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:380 |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Today world context generates continuous urban development , accelerates economic competitiveness and intensifies city branding. Capital cities in Central and Eastern Europe must position themselves as national growth engines and as internationally recognisable brands competing within the European urban hierarchy. We analyse Budapest and Bucharest, two capitals of two very interlinked neighbour countries, former communist cities with different trajectories in competitiveness and branding after the 1990s.The paper analyses the structural and dynamic factors which influence the performance of the two cities starting from theories of urban competitiveness. Indicators like GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, labor productivity, human capital, innovation ecosystems, infrastructure and governance draw the competitive advantages and vulnerabilities. Budapest is a city with deep historical integration into Western markets, institutional continuity and strong branding as a Central European cultural and innovation hub. Bucharest grows after EU accession and has a cost attractiveness for investors mixed with a fast developing IT sector. Bucharest struggles with lack of cohesion of governance , infrastructure deficits and a weak city branding.The analysis highlights that branding is not only promotion, it is a strategic component of competitiveness and it influences perceptions of the investors, residents and international institutions. The study finds out that sustainable competitiveness for these two cities requires a shift from cost advantages to innovation growth which must be supported by governance reform, human capital investment and coherent branding strategies. |
| Keywords: | City branding, economic competitiveness, urban development, Budapest, Bucharest |
| JEL: | F02 F63 O10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15416980 |
| By: | Klaus Weyerstraß; Michael Reiter; Daniel Schmidtner; Hannes Zenz |
| Abstract: | Abstract:In 2021 and particularly in 2022, gas prices rose sharply in Europe due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the previous throttling of Russian gas supply to Western Europe. Because of the merit-order system, this also led to an increase in electricity prices in Austria and in many other EU countries. Since Russian pipeline gas must be replaced by more expensive liquefied natural gas and by more volatile electricity from renewables, energy prices in Europe will also in the future remain higher than before 2021 and higher than in other regions, particularly in the US and in Asia. In Austria companies and households are also confronted with rising fees for the gas and the electricity grids. The higher energy costs undermine Austria’s international competitiveness. Simulations with a panel econometric model in this Policy Brief underline that exports of the Austrian manufacturing industries are negatively affected by higher energy prices. Economic policy should support structural change towards new industries. Permanent subsidies are, however, not an economically sustainable option. |
| Keywords: | Austrian Foreign Trade, trade |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2025:m:11:i:70 |
| By: | Pau Roldan-Blanco; Josep Pijoan-Mas |
| Abstract: | We study how the co-existence of fixed-term (FT) and open-ended (OE) contracts shapes firm dynamics, firm selection, worker allocation, aggregate productivity, and output. Using rich Spanish administrative data, we document that the use of fixed- term contracts is very heterogeneous across firms within narrowly defined sectors. Particularly, the relationship between the share of temporary workers and firm size is positive within firm but negative between firms. To explain these facts, we write a model of firm dynamics with technology heterogeneity, search-and-matching frictions, and a two-tier labor market structure. Our model emphasizes a key trade-off between contracts, namely, that while FT contracts give flexibility to firms, they also create more worker turnover, which is costly through the need to hire new workers and through the loss of firm-specific human capital. We find that limiting the use of FT contracts decreases the share of temporary employment and increases aggregate productivity —as better firm selection offsets increased misallocation of workers— but it also increases unemployment, output, and welfare. |
| Keywords: | dual labor markets, firm dynamics, temporary contracts, unemployment |
| JEL: | D83 E24 J41 L11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1531 |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi; Emmanuel Abakah |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the time-varying effect of global economic factors on office yields in Europe. Specifically, the study uses office yields of 16 European cities across 8 European countries from Q1 2007 to Q2 2024. Using Quantile Granger Causality Tests and Rolling Window Wavelet Correlation (RWWC) as estimation techniques, this paper specifically investigates the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Financial Stress Index (FSI), Global Risk Aversion Index (GRAI), and Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on office yields in Europe. The findings reveal that financial hubs like Central London, Frankfurt, and Central Paris are particularly sensitive to global risks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty, while cities like Lyon and Dublin are influenced more by local market dynamics. The analysis shows that these relationships are not uniform, with stronger impacts observed during times of economic stress and in the upper ranges of yield distributions. Short-term changes often reflect immediate reactions to financial shocks, while long-term trends highlight deeper, systemic risks. These insights emphasize the importance of understanding how global conditions and local market characteristics interact, providing valuable guidance for investors and policymakers navigating the complexities of European real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; global risk aversion; Policy uncertainty, ; prime office yields |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_225 |
| By: | Élodie Choque (BioEcoAgro BIOPI-UPJV - BioEcoAgro - UMR transfrontalière INRAe - UMRT1158 - UA - Université d'Artois - ULiège - Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille, BioEcoAgro - Equipe 5 - Specialized Metabolites of Plant Origin - BioEcoAgro - UMR transfrontalière INRAe - UMRT1158 - UA - Université d'Artois - ULiège - Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille, AIFREC - Association Interdisciplinaire Française pour la Recherche en Economie Circulaire); Pascal Guiraud (AIFREC - Association Interdisciplinaire Française pour la Recherche en Economie Circulaire, INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse, TBI-TIM - Transfert, Interface, Mélanges - TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Maud Herbert (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille, AIFREC - Association Interdisciplinaire Française pour la Recherche en Economie Circulaire); Isabelle Robert (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille, AIFREC - Association Interdisciplinaire Française pour la Recherche en Economie Circulaire); Ligia Tiruta Barna (INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse, TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, TBI-SOPHYE - SOPHYE - Séparation, oxydation et procédés Hybrides pour l'Environnement - TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, AIFREC - Association Interdisciplinaire Française pour la Recherche en Economie Circulaire) |
| Keywords: | Circular Economy, Economie Circulaire |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05339412 |
| By: | Abdulrahman Alameri (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Laboratoire Physico-Chimie des Matériaux-Catalyse et Environnement (LPCM-CE), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran-Mohamed Boudiaf (USTOMB)); Kahina Bentaleb (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Laboratoire Physico-Chimie des Matériaux-Catalyse et Environnement (LPCM-CE), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran-Mohamed Boudiaf (USTOMB)); Zohra Bouberka (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Laboratoire Physico-Chimie des Matériaux-Catalyse et Environnement (LPCM-CE), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran-Mohamed Boudiaf (USTOMB)); Nesrine Dalila Touaa (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Laboratoire Physico-Chimie des Matériaux-Catalyse et Environnement (LPCM-CE), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran-Mohamed Boudiaf (USTOMB)); Ulrich Maschke (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | une économie circulaire, visible light photodegradation, TBBPA, Cu3TiO5 deposited bentonite |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05356181 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Petar Soric (University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | Recent energy tensions caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to the pressure that global warming exerts for an energy transition towards low-carbon energy sources. This study combines two time series approaches with the aim of delving deeper into the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth and to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, using information from 20 European countries between 2007 and 2021. Overall, the obtained results suggest the existence of a N-shaped nexus between emissions and income per capita. Additionally, we evaluated stability of this nexus and the potential existence of an asymmetric adjustment. In most countries we find asymmetries in the adjustment of emissions to positive and negative changes in income, but not so much in economic complexity. However, notable differences are observed between countries, which could be indicating their differentiated phase in the EKC curve |
| Keywords: | economic growth; economic complexity; environmental degradation; greenhouse gas emissions; Europe JEL classification: C38; C55; O44; Q20; Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202509 |
| By: | Muellbauer, John |
| Abstract: | The multiple ways in which land and the economy interact underline the importance of entrenching socially beneficial policies for land and housing. Many of the UK's current economic and social problems can be traced to decades of related policy failure. The role of land is strongly dependent on institutions, including land use regulation, financial regulation and property taxation. Subject to deleterious but transformative changes in the 1980s, and persisting to this day, these resulted in high and volatile land prices (with several booms and busts in credit and house prices). The associated speculation diverted financial flows from more productive investment, damaging growth and competitiveness, and increasing financial instability risk. The UK holds the record for the extent of value embedded in the underlying land rather than in buildings. House prices are a weighted average of land prices and housing construction costs (with volatility of the former greatly exceeding the latter). High and volatile land prices are also closely connected with the UK's housing affordability crisis. Policy remedies require a holistic package. This includes planning reform, land value capture, expanding the social housing stock and reforming a dysfunctional property tax system. The current government recognizes the relevance of the first three, but not yet the fourth. This article details a holistic package of measures and the potential gains from a Green Land Value Tax in property tax reform. Politically feasible designs for less ambitious first steps are discussed. |
| Keywords: | land, housing, property tax, planning reform, land value capture, social housing stock |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-25 |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the competitiveness in Central Eastern Europe between Warsaw, Bucharest and Budapest for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) using the development of the artificial intelligence and its remodeling role of business relationships, communities and states infrastructure. Faster digital transformation and stronger urban branding influence more and more the final investment location. The connections between the cities policy frameworks for AI, the quality of human capital, the digital infrastructure and the speed of implementation of European Union programs for digitalization and AI rises the attraction for FDI. Data between 2015-2024 about broadband development in every city analyzed, funds for R&D, digitalization and AI number of startups, AI readiness expressed in digital skills prove the modernization of the economies of every city and trends of business activity deeper and deeper connected with AI.Bucharest low cost but skilled workforce, Budapest AI Coalition initiatives and Warsaw premium position as emerging AI hub are empirically proved as results of different levels of implementation of AI policies which generate different levels of attraction of FDI?s. This study brings new perspective to the scientific literature, which is not yet very organized and clear because of very new economic developments, on AI which influences the economies of the three cities and whole Central Eastern Europe and brings bigger FDI in resonance with branding and smart policies in the field. Recommendations based on evidence and math models are made to rise the economic development of the three capitals, to minimize the disparities between them and to obtain higher level of competitiveness with the rest of European Union and stronger flows of FDI?s with the help of innovative AI implementation. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Foreign Direct Investment, Digital Ecosystems, Central and Eastern Europe, Urban Competitiveness |
| JEL: | M16 M38 O57 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15316955 |
| By: | Kevin Parra Ramirez; Vincent Vicard |
| Abstract: | While multinational enterprises (MNEs) shift hundreds of billions in profits to low-tax jurisdictions annually, how they do remains disputed. Using firm-level data for France in 2018, we provide the first joint quantification of the three main profit-shifting channels: transfer mispricing in goods trade, intangible assets and services traded with tax havens, and intra-firm debt. We find empirical evidence for all three instruments, but transfer mispricing dominates quantitatively (€10 billion, 0.4\% of GDP), followed by services (up to €6 billion) and debt (€2 billion). Although significant, these direct estimates account for half of total missing profits in France, as estimated indirectly from the location of MNE profits. We document two key blind spots likely to close this gap: cross-border digital payments by households and understudied debt instruments (e.g., securities). |
| Keywords: | Tax Avoidance;Multinational Firms;Profit Shifting;FDI;Trade |
| JEL: | H26 H25 H32 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-16 |
| By: | Shuangshuang Wang; Siu Kei Wong |
| Abstract: | Typhoons are becoming more intense, destructive, and unpredictable due to global warming. Different from low-frequency disasters with single-impact nature (e.g., earthquakes and floods), typhoons exhibit cyclical risk patterns—frequent low-loss events interspersed with rare highly-destructive typhoons—which amplify vertical risk perception through availability heuristics. While previous studies on typhoon risk capitalization mainly focus on horizontal proxies such as flood zone maps, This study examines how typhoons' unique intermittent risk cycles reshape vertical housing price gradients through risk salience amplification. We introduce the “typhoon-induced vertical gradient”—greater price discounts on higher floors post-typhoon. We establish a risk capitalization framework that incorporates floor-level heterogeneity in high-rise structures to investigate the typhoon-induced vertical gradient and how this vertical gradient varies across different regions. The results reveal a typhoon-induced vertical gradient within the high-rises and the higher the floor level, the greater the vertical gradient is. We also hope to find that this vertical gradient would be more significant in the high-risk regions than in the low-risk regions. This gradient exhibits spatial self-reinforcement – high-risk regions demonstrate stronger effects than low-risk areas By formalizing cognitive constraints in vertical space pricing, this research bridges behavioral finance with urban economics. The findings provide insurers with floor-level risk premia models and inform climate-resilient zoning policies through 3D risk mapping. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Housing Price; Risk Perception; typhoon-induced vertical gradient |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_260 |
| By: | Quang-Thanh Tran (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)); Akiomi Kitagawa (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs an overlapping generations model to analyze how placing the burden of caring for both elderly parents and children on the working generation shapes fertility and other economic outcomes. In the model, fertility decisions create intergenerational spillovers. When one generation has fewer children, the next generation faces a heavier caregiving burden for its elderly parents, which in turn discourages childbearing. The model reveals sharply different long-run trajectories depending on the time intensity of caregiving. If care demands are moderate, sustainable growth remains feasible despite these externalities. However, when care becomes highly time-intensive, fertility declines, labor supply contracts, and the economy risks falling into a ``nursing hell, " where most time is devoted to caregiving. Policy measures, such as child allowances, can alleviate this dynamic by expanding the number of siblings and reducing the per-capita caregiving burden. Yet if care demands are extremely high from the outset, even such interventions cannot avert structural collapse. |
| Keywords: | dual caregiving, endogenous fertility, overlapping generations, sustainability |
| JEL: | E13 J13 J14 J22 J24 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0325 |
| By: | Zilia, Federico; Nota, Paolo; Olper, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses significant challenges to the productivity of the European agricultural sector, particularly in low-latitude regions such as the Mediterranean. The extent to which sectoral labour reallocation—shifting labour from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors—serves as an adaptation strategy to climate shocks remains an underexplored research question. This paper examines how weather variability affects inter-sectoral labour reallocation among agriculture, construction, industry, and services across 1, 149 European districts (NUTS3 level) from 1980 to 2022. In doing so, we also explore the extent to which weather-driven sectoral productivity shocks serve as a key mechanism. Leveraging this large and granular dataset, we employ flexible functional forms within a fixed-effects panel framework, where the impact of weather shocks is conditional on long-term climate. Unlike previous empirical research in climate economics, which primarily focused on inter-annual variations in average temperature, this study emphasizes the significant role of daily temperature variability. Temperature variability is particularly critical in warmer regions with low seasonal variability, which are more vulnerable to sudden temperature shifts or rainfall shocks. In hot regions with low seasonal variability—such as the Mediterranean—we find a robust adaptative response in the labour market, where workers shift from climate-sensitive agriculture to less affected sectors, such as industry and services. Interestingly, we also observe a labour reallocation effect in the opposite direction—from industry and services to agriculture—in the most cold and high-income districts. The heterogeneous impact of weather shocks on sectoral value-added growth across different climates appears to be a key mechanism driving this labour reallocation. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356767 |
| By: | Élisabeth Tovar (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laetitia Tuffery (CHROME - Détection, évaluation, gestion des risques CHROniques et éMErgents (CHROME) - Nîmes Université - UNIMES - Nîmes Université); Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre (Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas); Mathieu Bunel (UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe) |
| Keywords: | xénophobie, location, discrimination raciale, immobilier, économie, discrimination, racisme, entreprises |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05348036 |
| By: | Moretti, Laura (Central Bank of Ireland); Riva, Luca (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In a sample of 17 European countries, we find that the adoption of borrower-based measures reduces house price growth, house-price-to-income growth, and growth in household debt over GDP. We do not find significant effects on the homeownership rate. Moreover, our results show that different types of instruments have different effects, with income-based instruments having a stronger impact on reducing the growth rate of household debt, while loan-to-value limits have a stronger impact on house price growth. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:6/si/25 |
| By: | Edda Donati |
| Abstract: | Over the last twenty years, European policies to reduce emissions in the building sector have encouraged the introduction of sustainable business models, including Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) and its Italian evolution, Servizio Energia Plus (Energy Plus Service). The latter differs from the traditional EPC model in the ESCo's ability not only to carry out efficiency measures but also to supply energy for a period of ten years after the measure, ensuring integrated management and reducing risk for the customer. This study focuses on the Energy Plus Service and analyzes its specific characteristics and economic benefits to highlight its role in promoting sustainability in the Italian building landscape. The research is based on the application of two business models - a traditional and the Energy Plus Service - to a renovation project of an Italian case study. This approach makes it possible to compare a traditional business model with Energy Plus Service, highlighting the differences in terms of energy efficiency, economic sustainability, and risk management. The expected results should show that the Energy Plus Service model offers more effective solutions to climate and energy efficiency challenges than the traditional model and is better adapted to the economic and social specificities of the Italian context. This comparison is intended to show the concrete benefits resulting from the introduction of sustainable business models in the construction sector |
| Keywords: | Energy Plus Service; EPC; Renovation; Sustainable business models |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_28 |
| By: | Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Peter Hull; Michal Koles\'ar |
| Abstract: | We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is purpose-built for leveraging exogenous leniency variation, avoiding subtle biases even in the presence of many decision-makers or controls. We show how UJIVE can also be used to assess key assumptions underlying leniency designs, including quasi-random assignment and average first-stage monotonicity, and to probe the external validity of treatment effect estimates. We further discuss statistical inference, arguing that non-clustered standard errors are often appropriate. A reanalysis of Farre-Mensa et al. (2020), using quasi-random examiner assignment to estimate the value of patents to startups, illustrates our checklist. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03572 |
| By: | Yun Young Gwak |
| Abstract: | Distinguishing between sector-specific and aggregate shocks and assessing their contributions to inflation are vital for informed policy. This paper quantifies cross-sectoral spillovers in U.S. consumer price inflation using a factor-adjusted network approach that jointly models aggregate factors and sectoral network propagation. Using disaggregated personal consumption expenditure data across 26 sectors from 1959-2024, the model employs Lasso nuclear-norm regularization to estimate high-dimensional VARs while controlling for aggregate influences. Cross-sectoral spillovers account for roughly two-fifths of total price variation--more than twice the share attributable to aggregate factors--and are systematically mismeasured in conventional models: factor models understate spillovers by absorbing network transmission into common components, while VARs without factors overstate them by conflating comovement with propagation. The spillover structure is highly granular, dominated by large consumer-facing sectors such as food, furnishings, and services, with gasoline exerting more moderate but persistent effects. Spillovers propagate mainly through backward production linkages and scale with sector size, indicating that large downstream sectors play a disproportionate role in transmitting sector-specific shocks across the price network. The findings underscore the need for integrating sectoral networks and aggregate factors in modeling inflation dynamics and policy design. |
| Keywords: | sectoral spillovers, network connectedness, inflation, cross-sectoral transmission |
| JEL: | C32 C38 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-63 |
| By: | Aaron Günther; Niklas Potrafke; Emil Scholten |
| Abstract: | We examine fiscal policies and parliamentary activities of minority governments in the German states. Our sample includes the 16 German states over the period 1981-2024. The results show that minority governments implemented similar fiscal policies to majority governments. Minority governments had about 14 more parliamentary bills than majority governments, a result that is based on the activities of opposition parties and not of the minority governments. We conclude that minority governments have not performed worse than majority governments for a long time. We present case study evidence on minority governments in Thuringia and Saxony showing that a more fragmented party system makes it more difficult for minority governments to perform well and implement their policy goals. Future research should investigate in more detail the performance of minority governments in times of fragmented party systems. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_421 |
| By: | Joseph Staudt |
| Abstract: | I use administrative data from universities (UMETRICS) linked to the universe of confidential W-2 and 1040-C tax records to measure faculty commercial engagement and its role in female-male earnings gaps. Female faculty are 20 percentage points less likely to engage commercially, with the entire gap driven by self-employment. The raw earnings gap is $63, 000 on a base of $162, 000 and non-university earnings account for $18, 000 (29 percent) of this total. Thus, while university pay explains most of the gap, commercial engagement substantially amplifies it. Earnings gaps appear in all components of non-university pay – self-employment, and work for incumbent, young/startup, high-tech, and non-high-tech firms – and remain large, though attenuated, after controlling publications, patents, field, university, scientific resources, age, marital status, childbearing, and demographics. Gaps widen as faculty move up the earnings distribution, and commercial engagement becomes a larger contributor. Men and women engage with similar industries, but men earn more in all shared industries. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, academic commercial engagement, male-female wage gap, university faculty |
| JEL: | O30 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-68 |
| By: | Van Wolleghem, Pierre; Soares, Marta Bruno; Lamb, Gavin; Puga-Gonzalez, Ivan |
| Abstract: | Climate change adaptation (CCA) increasingly relies on collaborative efforts to generate and circulate actionable knowledge. Among these, knowledge networks (KNs) have emerged as key infrastructures for fostering transnational cooperation, enabling mutual learning, and supporting local implementation. While their theoretical value is widely acknowledged, the empirical landscape of adaptation-related knowledge networks in Europe remains poorly understood. This article offers the first systematic mapping of KNs working on CCA in Europe, with a particular focus on Transnational Municipal Networks (TMNs)—a prominent subset composed primarily of local authorities. We identify and compare 32 knowledge networks across key dimensions including structure, governance, membership, funding models, and core activities. The analysis is grounded in two original datasets: a network-level dataset comprising 32 adaptation-related KNs and a membership-level dataset encompassing over 17, 000 entries, systematically collected and geo-referenced. These resources provide an unprecedented empirical basis for understanding how climate knowledge is shared, institutionalised, and mobilised across Europe. Our findings reveal a diverse and uneven landscape, with significant variation in access thresholds, support mechanisms, and geographic representation. TMNs, in particular, differ in the type and intensity of support they provide—ranging from technical expertise and financial assistance to symbolic capital and peer learning opportunities. The article contributes to ongoing debates about multilevel climate governance and the role of networks in enhancing local adaptation capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vtshj_v1 |
| By: | Hill, Ruth Vargas; Martin, Will; McNamara, Brian; Nia, Reza; Spielman, David J.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic benefits for the E.U. while reducing global poverty and food insecurity. CGIAR has boosted productivity on E.U. farms, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for E.U. consumers. It has also helped prevent potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten E.U. farm livelihoods. This note quantifies the benefits to farmers, exporters and consumers. |
| Keywords: | investment; European Commission; poverty reduction; agricultural research; Europe |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:177514 |
| By: | Bastien Patras |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of mandatory energy performance certification (EPC) disclosure on housing market dynamics in France. Building on a phased implementation of disclosure policies since 2006, the 2021 regulation introduced legally binding EPC visibility in advertisements alongside significant penalties for non-compliance. Using a (i) difference-in-discontinuity framework that exploits cross-border policy variations between France and Belgium and (ii) an event study design exploiting the heterogeneous effect of the regulation, the study accounts for spatial and temporal variations in policy adoption and identifies the causal effects of this policy on property prices. The analysis reveals three key insights. First, energy-inefficient properties (EPC ratings F or G) faced price declines up to -9 percentage points (pp) under mandatory disclosure, signaling a market penalty for inefficiency. Second, efficient properties experienced modest price gains, with houses showing a +3pp increase. Third, the regulation surprisingly fostered strategic nondisclosure, particularly in apartment market, where missing EPC ratings garnered a +14pp price premium four years after enactment. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of market responses across property types and locations. The study concludes by discussing the social welfare implications of mandatory disclosure, including improved affordability for certain buyers, risks of eviction due to price increases, and potential misreporting behaviors. By advancing the understanding of energy efficiency’s role in housing markets, this research offers actionable insights for policymakers seeking to balance climate goals with equitable market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Energy Performance Certification (EPC); Housing Market Dynamics; Mandatory Disclosure Policy; Price Effects and Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_138 |
| By: | Baldea, Ioan |
| Abstract: | This pedagogical study presents a comprehensive framework for systematic optimization of hedging trading strategies across diverse market regimes. We demonstrate that traditional parameter selection approaches often yield suboptimal results due to constrained search spaces, while systematic exploration reveals non-intuitive optimal configurations. Using a modified geometric Brownian motion process with regime-specific parameters, we generate synthetic market data across six distinct regimes and test a simultaneous long-short hedging strategy with ATR-based position sizing. Our multi-seed validation approach ensures statistical robustness, revealing that optimal parameters (stop-loss multiplier: 1.37, take-profit multiplier: 1.50) achieve 97.2\% hedging success rate, significantly outperforming intuitively selected parameters. This research emphasizes the importance of broad parameter exploration, proper statistical validation, and the fundamental tradeoff between success frequency and profit magnitude in systematic trading. \textbf{At the same time and even more importantly pragmatically, our analysis reveals a more fundamental methodological insight:} successful optimization requires alignment between objective functions and practical goals. While we achieved ``attractive'' success rates, this study demonstrates how even rigorous optimization can yield practically suboptimal results when objectives mismatch real-world priorities. Because what matters is not frequency of success alone, but the fundamental relationship between profit magnitude and loss magnitude across the strategy's entire return distribution. \textbf{Disclaimer:} This research represents academic simulation work for educational purposes only. All trading involves substantial risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. |
| Keywords: | Objective function selection Optimization criteria Performance metric alignment Metric selection bias Optimization artifacts Parameter optimization pitfalls |
| JEL: | C0 C02 C3 C38 C4 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126678 |
| By: | Wosser, Michael (Central Bank of Ireland); McInerney, Niall (Central Bank of Ireland); Athanasopoulos, Angelos (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | We examine the costs and benefits of LTV and LTI borrower based measures (BBM) changes on future consumption growth rates. Costs are established using a semi-structural model of the Irish economy, which quantifies how macroprudential policy changes affect forecasts for expected consumption growth. Benefits appear in the form of changes to the tail risk to consumption growth, at the 5th percentile, over a forecast horizon of up to 4 years, given the same macroprudential policy change within a novel consumption at risk framework. We find that policy tightening actions involving LTV and LTI are associated with dampened central, or expected, consumption growth rates but appear broadly correlated with less adverse consumption growth tail risk. The timing of BBM adjustments is shown to be highly important, taking the phase of the financial cycle into account. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Policy, Borrower Based Measures, Consumption Growth, Costs and Benefits Study, LTV, LTI, Financial Cycle, Policymaker Preferences. |
| JEL: | E5 G01 G17 G28 R39 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:14/rt/25 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a continuous functional framework for analyzing contagion dynamics in financial networks, extending the Navier-Stokes-based approach to network-structured spatial processes. We model financial distress propagation as a diffusion process on weighted networks, deriving a network diffusion equation from first principles that predicts contagion decay depends on the network's algebraic connectivity through the relation $\kappa = \sqrt{\lambda_2/D}$, where $\lambda_2$ is the second-smallest eigenvalue of the graph Laplacian and $D$ is the diffusion coefficient. Applying this framework to European banking data from the EBA stress tests (2018, 2021, 2023), we estimate interbank exposure networks using maximum entropy methods and track the evolution of systemic risk through the COVID-19 crisis. Our key finding is that network connectivity declined by 45\% from 2018 to 2023, implying a 26\% reduction in the contagion decay parameter. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals this structural change was driven by regulatory-induced deleveraging of systemically important banks, which experienced differential asset reductions of 17\% relative to smaller institutions. The networks exhibit lognormal rather than scale-free degree distributions, suggesting greater resilience than previously assumed in the literature. Extensive robustness checks across parametric and non-parametric estimation methods confirm declining systemic risk, with cross-method correlations exceeding 0.95. These findings demonstrate that post-COVID-19 regulatory reforms effectively reduced network interconnectedness and systemic vulnerability in the European banking system. |
| Keywords: | Financial networks, systemic risk, contagion dynamics, network diffusion, algebraic connectivity, Navier-Stokes equations, maximum entropy estimation, European banking |
| JEL: | C45 D85 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126729 |
| By: | Diessner, Sebastian; Petit, Christy A. |
| Abstract: | This article asks “who controls the controllers” now that the European Commission—long responsible for controlling the conduct of industrial policy in the EU's internal market—increasingly pursues its own industrial policy objectives. We draw on delegation theory to establish why the Commission should be held accountable for its industrial policy‐making and, based on a distinction between procedural and substantive accountability, develop a simple typology of accountability outcomes that helps us distinguish between full accountability, partial accountability, and unaccountability in the realm of industrial policy. To assess empirically whether and how the Commission has been held accountable in its pursuit of industrial policy, we leverage a new dataset that tracks Commission follow‐ups—both in writing and in terms of policy actions—to 432 points raised in own‐initiative reports by the European Parliament's Committee on Industry, Research and Energy between 2019 and 2024. Our analysis suggests that the Commission has been far more responsive in “words” than in “actions”, which carries implications for our understanding of executive‐legislative relations and democratic accountability not only in industrial policy but also in other EU policy domains. |
| Keywords: | european union; european parliament; parliamentary oversight; industrial policy; accountability; european commission |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130258 |
| By: | Nalumino Akakandelwa; Kathy Pain; Eleanor Eaton; Alistair Hunt; Oliver Tannor |
| Abstract: | The paper reports findings from a real estate study examining asset management decision-making outcomes for urban population health and wellbeing in a five-year programme funded by the United Kingdom Prevention Research Partnership (UKPRP). We find that despite an industry appetite for demonstrating how portfolio strategies promote sustainable urban environments that produce resilient risk-adjusted returns on investment, there is a paucity of health and wellbeing data to inform portfolio management models. Evidence of responsible Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) performance has become seen as a commercial priority but environmental sustainability has taken precedence in investor reporting due to the superior availability of carbon data. Focusing on two large investment management funds with extensive UK urban asset portfolios, we take on the challenge of testing how monetised health and wellbeing value generated by urban redevelopment can inform asset management healthy urban placemaking aligned with investor financial returns aspirations. We conclude that In the context of the contemporary financialization of property and assetization of urban space, urban land and property repurposing and upgrading presents an opportunity to create social value in operational models for wealth creation. |
| Keywords: | Asset portfolio; Healthy placemaking; real estate; social value |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_250 |
| By: | Asbjoern Juul Petersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I investigate the effects of offering conditional student aid to foreign students on their labor supply in Denmark. I utilize a natural experiment created by an EU court ruling in 2013, deciding that foreign students had the right to a monthly student aid subsidy on equal terms with Danish students provided they work 10-12 hours per week, alongside their studies. I hypothesize, that this ruling can potentially increase labor supply of foreign students along three margins: i) A higher inflow of foreign students, ii) An increased labor supply during studies, and iii) An increased labor supply after studies. I use administrative data from Statistics Denmark to test these hypotheses. While I find an increased labor supply of foreign students during their studies, my results do not point to an increased inflow of students nor to an increased labor supply after ended studies. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply, foreign students, student aid |
| JEL: | J22 J61 H52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2513 |
| By: | Nathan Michel (ICGM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sylvain Caillol (ICGM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier); Armelle Ouali (ICGM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier); Vincent Ladmiral (ICGM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Keywords: | méthanisation, CO2 biogénique, Polyuréthanes sans isocyanate, Chimie Click, Chimie Verte, Catalyse |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05356180 |
| By: | Naureda Llagami (Senior Legal Expert, former chairperson of the High Judicial Council) |
| Abstract: | This article considers digital technologies' transformation of court administration and judicial proceedings across European Union member states, concentrating on recent technological and legislative developments. Regulation (EU) 2023/2844 and Directive (EU) 2023/2843 are key to this shift as they require parties to identify electronically within cross-border civil, commercial, and criminal proceedings, to use videoconferencing, and to communicate securely. These actions rely on the e-CODEX system permitting secure electronic document exchange as they match EU plans for digital resilience plus interoperability. From fully operational e-justice platforms toward partial pandemic-accelerated solutions including Estonia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy, and others, the study identifies varying levels of integration through a comparative analysis of selected member states. While digitalization makes things more efficient, transparent, as well as accessible for justice, infrastructure, legal interpretation, with procedural rules still create disparities that obstruct uniform implementation. The eIDAS Regulation runs into some difficulties in terms of harmonizing electronic identification. Digitally mediated proceedings also battle to admit electronic evidence with integrity and safeguard fundamental rights. The study does also consider the impact of COVID-19 upon accelerating remote hearings, and this in turn highlights both efficiency gains as well as concerns regarding procedural fairness. Best practices include the integrated digital case management, the secure authentication systems, and the user-oriented e-justice portals. Challenges such as IT systems, data incompatibility, also digital exclusion provide for a sharp difference. To ensure EU digital justice reforms are resilient inclusive as well as respectful of the right to a fair trial while advancing interoperability plus access to justice across the internal market, the analysis concludes sustained investment coordinated training of legal professionals also reinforced regulatory oversight are important. |
| Keywords: | Digitalization of justice, e-CODEX, eIDAS regulation, Cross-border judicial cooperation, Electronic evidence |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15516957 |
| By: | Bareith, Tibor |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dynamics of food price inflation convergence among the EU27 Member States over the period 2005–2024, with a focus on the effects of structural breaks, external shocks, and regional heterogeneity. Using panel unit root tests, structural break analysis, and the Phillips and Sul club convergence methodology, the research identifies distinct patterns of convergence and divergence in food price inflation across the region. The findings reveal a lack of overall convergence, driven by persistent economic and institutional disparities among Member States. Instead, the analysis uncovers multiple convergence ‘clubs, ’ highlighting clusters of countries with similar inflationary trajectories shaped by shared market structures, policy frameworks, and levels of integration. The study further identifies structural breaks corresponding to major global disruptions, such as the financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have exacerbated inflation disparities among Member States. While temporary alignment in inflation rates is observed during periods of acute shock, long-term convergence remains constrained by structural differences and divergent national responses. The results have significant policy implications, underscoring the need for tailored interventions to address the specific vulnerabilities of divergent groups while enhancing the coordination of fiscal and agricultural policies at the EU level. This research contributes to the literature on food price dynamics and regional integration, offering insights for policymakers who aim to foster greater market cohesion and price stability in the face of ongoing and future challenges. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356730 |
| By: | Stéphane Morel (ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris); Anne-France Mariacher |
| Keywords: | formation durable., design based research , taxonomie de Bloom , apprentissage expérientiel , Mots clés : économie circulaire |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05356191 |
| By: | Altangadas Altankhuyag; Bjoern-Martin Kurzrock |
| Abstract: | The real estate industry faces significant challenges and profound structural change. The digitalisation of buildings into smart buildings, particularly through the influence of PropTechs, presents an opportunity to address sustainability issues, optimise processes and transform the user experience in buildings. Despite growing interest in PropTechs and smart buildings from both a practical and a scientific perspective, they remain relatively undeveloped areas of research. In order to gain insight into the business models of PropTechs and their contribution to the development of smart buildings, a taxonomy has been developed to capture the business model of PropTechs that offer solutions for smart built environment. This taxonomy has been developed through a systematic literature review, 90 real-world cases from Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and 14 expert interviews. In order to identify archetypes, a further 100 PropTechs from Western Europe were sourced using Large Language Model. Following this, they were classified using the taxonomy, after which a cluster analysis was performed. The taxonomy provides academics with a structured method of analysing PropTechs operating in the specific field of smart buildings, facilitating a deeper understanding of this area. In practice, the taxonomy can be used by building owners and investors to analyse the market and gain insight into the functionality and business model of different PropTechs. |
| Keywords: | Business Framework; proptech; real estate; smart building |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_48 |
| By: | Susanne Geissler; Paraskevas Koukaras; Elena Taxeri; Andreas Androutsopoulos |
| Abstract: | The property sector is faced with numerous regulations, some of which are based on the European Green Deal. At the same time, the data economy is not stopping at the property industry, leading to the adaptation and reorientation of processes and methods. However, this disruptive environment is also creating new opportunities, like for example assessing the 'smart readiness” of buildings. The digital economy is a key enabler of smart-ready buildings, driving energy efficiency, cost savings and sustainability. As smart technologies evolve, buildings will play an increasingly active role in energy optimisation, carbon reduction and the transition to a greener economy. The Smart Readiness Indicator (SRI) assesses a building's potential to contribute to energy efficiency in building operations, while providing a healthy and comfortable indoor environment, as well as potential grid flexibility. This paper explains the SRI, a simplified approach to determine the indicator in a cost-effective manner, and how it can be used to meet requirements in sustainable finance, ESG reporting, and green building certification. It is based on work carried out in the EU-funded easySRI project. The paper is intended for the following Themes: Theme G: Sustainable Real Estate Theme H: New Technology and Data in Real Estate |
| Keywords: | Digitalisation; easySRI; smart readiness indicator; Sustainable Building |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_224 |
| By: | Humphreys, David; O'Donovan, David |
| Abstract: | The consignment of European bloodstock assets involves commercial breeders consigning bloodstock assets for public auction through one of a small number of auction houses that dominate the market. Vendors typically consign such assets to the auction house and individual auctions they believe give the best chance of maximising the attainable price. The market is characterised by a perception that there is a premium pricing effect in consigning to certain auction houses and select sales. This paper seeks to determine if evidence exists to uphold that perception. Specifically, the paper examines the pricing dynamics and variables that exist in the UK and Ireland market for thoroughbred yearlings and tests the hypothesis that a pricing premium can be achieved by specific consignment strategies. The paper uses a unique modelling approach to capture the above dynamics. The paper seeks to identify the variables that influence auction prices achieved and control for these in determining the price effect of consigning through certain auction houses. The influence of sires has typically been viewed as the dominant effect on realised auction prices achieved in the market for thoroughbred yearlings. The market is characterised by a perception of a generally linear relationship between sire price and realised auction prices for thoroughbred yearlings. However, this paper seeks to more effectively model for the impact of dam on auction price outcomes. By using a unique modelling approach to measure the quality of dam, the paper seeks to more accurately capture the influential effect of maternal lineage on realised auction prices. Having isolated the dam effect, the findings of the paper will allow a more accurate assessment of the correlation between yearling auction price and auction consignment strategy and allow breeders a greater ability to select sales that maximise investment return. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356759 |
| By: | Mugrabi, Farah (Central Bank of Ireland & Université catholique de Louvain); Rünstler, Gerhard (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We apply the multivariate unobserved components model of Rünstler and Vlekke (2018) to jointly estimate the cyclical and trend components of output, credit, and residential property prices in Ireland. We find that credit and house price cycles are subject to an average duration of about 15 years, considerably longer than the business cycle, estimated at 8.5 years. Compared to several alternative estimation methods, the estimates of house price and credit cycles combine strong early warning performance with superior real-time reliability. Our findings contribute to the monitoring of systemic risks in the Irish economy and the conduct of macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Unobserved components models, Vector Error Correction models, Hodrick–Prescott filter, Christiano–Fitzgerald filter, Business cycles, House prices cycles, Credit cycle, Macroprudential policies. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:16/rt/25 |
| By: | Luka Dragani\'c; Leonarda Srdeli\'c; Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez |
| Abstract: | Using Croatian data and the IMF's Natural Disaster Debt Dynamic Tool, this paper assesses how public debt adjusts to extreme events in a small open economy. We compare debt paths under baseline and stress scenarios, the latter simulating a major earthquake in 2025. Croatia provides a unique setting for evaluating post-disaster recovery in countries recently incorporated into the European Union. Our benchmark projections, which assume moderate economic growth and a broadly neutral fiscal stance, suggest the debt-to-GDP ratio will gradually decline to below 55% by 2040. In contrast, in the disaster scenario, we document a sharp short-term increase and a persistent upward shift in the debt trajectory, reaching 75% of GDP. Deterministic and stochastic simulations allow us to assess the distribution of potential outcomes. It is shown that, in the absence of shocks, public debt is on a sustainable downward path, but a severe natural disaster could reverse this trend and keep it elevated for years. Our findings highlight the importance of fiscal buffers that are critical for creating space to absorb shocks. The paper innovates by integrating natural disaster stress-testing into public debt analysis, with implications for fiscal risk management and policy planning. While we focus on Croatia, the mechanisms we uncover have broader implications for small open economies exposed to extreme events. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.02973 |
| By: | Nikolaos Triantafyllopoulos |
| Abstract: | Adaptation to climate change depends mainly on actions undertaken in urban areas, cities being simultaneously part of the problem and its solution. The European Union and states establish ambitious policies and measures to achieve targets for the energy upgrade of buildings. New technologies are developing rapidly, but important barriers prevent their implementation in space. This paper explores the question of whether building upgrades are required to upgrade the real estate market in vulnerable urban areas, or vice versa. A deprived area of central Athens serves as a case study. Based on field research data, cases of energy renovation of buildings through a public-private partnership including state aid scheme are analysed. It is argued that for decisions to be made on the energy upgrading of buildings, both by owners and investors, in addition to the profit from reducing energy costs, there must be tangible benefits from increasing the market value of buildings and generating capital gains. Surplus values can be obtained through urban regeneration interventions. For a building, energy retrofitting is a financial investment in a capital asset and energy policies are most effective when tangible benefits are made significant, using market forces. Higher prices for energy-renovated properties can motivate owners. For a real estate investor, property value appreciation is a significant driver for energy investments and decisions are based primarily on property market fundamentals, the quality of the area in which it is located, as well as their expectations for and secondarily on the energy performance of buildings, the impact of which is incorporated into their market value. This means that the energy market is subordinate to the property market and not the opposite, as it is frequently stated. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Real Estate Market; Urban Regeneration; vulnerable urban areas |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_183 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and empirically implements a continuous functional framework for analyzing systemic risk in financial networks, building on the dynamic spatial treatment effect methodology established in \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}. We extend the Navier-Stokes-based approach from \citet{kikuchi2024navier} to characterize contagion dynamics in the European banking system through the spectral properties of network evolution operators. Using high-quality bilateral exposure data from the European Banking Authority Transparency Exercise (2014-2023), we estimate the causal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on network fragility using spatial difference-in-differences methods adapted from \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}. Our empirical analysis reveals that COVID-19 elevated network fragility, measured by the algebraic connectivity $\lambda_2$ of the system Laplacian, by 26.9\% above pre-pandemic levels (95\% CI: [7.4\%, 46.5\%], p$ |
| Keywords: | inancial networks, Systemic risk, Navier-Stokes dynamics, Spatial treatment effects, Network contagion, Banking regulation, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C31 C63 E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126721 |
| By: | Athina Karvounaraki (European Commission); Alexis Stevenson (European Commission); Isabelle Labrosse (Science-Metrix); David Campbell (Science-Metrix); Henrik Karlstrøm (NIFU); Eric Iversen (NIFU); Lili Wang (UNU/MERIT, Maastricht University); Ad Notten (UNU/MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | The study examines the surge in GenAI chatbot mentions in scientific literature, showing a 13-fold increase from November 2022 to December 2023. The use of GenAI chatbots in scientific research is mainly in ICT and Applied Sciences, where AI improves research efficiency. Key applications include writing and practical implementation, demonstrating the tool's widespread use in academic writing and research. Nonetheless, the increasing use of AI in research and academia raises concerns about quality assurance and trust issues. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, Research, Scientific Literature, Chatbots, ICT, Applied Sciences, Academic Writing, Quality Assurance, Trust Issues |
| JEL: | O32 O38 C18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-01-25-084-en-n |
| By: | Renata Rechnio |
| Abstract: | Past financial crises have shown that unsustainable developments in real estate markets can have a negative impact on economic growth and financial stability. Therefore, monitoring of real estate markets play important role in monetary, macro- and micro-prudential policy frameworks. Although availability of statistics for residential real estate improved significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, large data gaps remain for commercial real estate (CRE), which hampers effective analysis and early identification of possible risks. In October 2016, the ESRB issued Recommendation ESRB/2016/14 on closing real estate data gaps, which was subsequently amended in 2019 with Recommendation ESRB/2019/3. One of aspects addressed by the recommendation is the existing data gaps in the availability and comparability of data on CRE markets. In particular, it indicates the need for harmonised price, rent and rental yield indices compiled with quarterly frequency and with the breakdowns into different property types and into prime and non-prime locations. The features of CRE markets and the available data sources, combined with the granularity of information expected by data users, make developing reliable and timely indicators challenging. In recent years, Eurostat and the Member States have together investigated the feasibility of developing commercial real estate statistics. They have made significant progress particularly on prices and rents, even if practical and methodological challenges remain. This paper presents the progress made by Eurostat and national statistical institutes towards developing non-financial CRE statistics. Moreover, it discusses the main methodological and practical issues faced by data producers. It also informs about the European Commission work aimed at ensuring the future legislative framework for production of official CRE indicators. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate indicators; non-financial statistics; Price Index; Rent Index |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_82 |