|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Alessio Tomelleri; Giorgio Cutuli; Andrea Signoretti |
| Abstract: | In the last decades, socio-economic literature has paid considerable attention to the distribution of costs and benefits of technological introduction and ICT diffusion for different segments of the workforce, mainly across distinct occupational or educational groups. This study explores how wage returns to ICT use differ between temporary and permanent workers focusing on the role of trade unions in mitigating this contractual divide. Using recent European microdata from the ESJ2 survey (CEDEFOP 2022), we examine whether union membership enhances wage outcomes for temporary workers using digital skills, and how this effect varies depending on national patterns of union representation. By combining individual-level information with country-level indicators of trade union density across contractual types, we assess how micro and macro level dynamics shape wage parity in ICT returns. Overall, our findings reveal a clear penalty for non-unionised temporary workers. The protective role of trade union membership is nonetheless significant only in national contexts characterized by similar level of trade union density across contractual groups. These results underscore both the conditionalities and potentials of industrial relations in fostering inclusive labour markets amid technological change. |
| Keywords: | ICT skills, wage premiums, European labour markets, temporary contracts, trade unions |
| JEL: | J2 E24 O30 J50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2025-04 |
| By: | Caravaggio, Nicola; Resce, Giuliano; Santangelo, Agapito Emanuele |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of European Cohesion Funds on the digitalization of local governments in Italy, using the quality of municipal websites as a proxy for e-government capacity. Using web scraping techniques and a generalized Difference-in-Differences approach, the study examines whether municipalities that received targeted EU funding for digital networks and services experienced improvements in website technological sophistication. The results show that cohesion funds have contributed to the adoption of modern web standards, particularly HTML5, and to the simplification of website structure, indicating progress in the core aspects of digital infrastructure. These effects are especially pronounced in smaller municipalities and those located in the South and Inner Areas, suggesting that the cohesion policy can support digital convergence in structurally disadvantaged contexts. However, the absence of systematic improvements in broader dimensions of web interactivity points to the selective nature of these advancements. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion policy, Digitalization, Italian municipalities. |
| JEL: | H77 L86 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp25100 |
| By: | Thomas Bézy (École d’Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Catherine Bruneau (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cédric Crofils (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Étienne Lavenant (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Dimitris Mavridis (OCDE Economics Départment - OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the difficulties anticipated by companies in France when it comes to recruiting staff. We match data from the 2018 and 2019 Besoins en Main‑d'Œuvre surveys on workforce needs with company data from the FARE annual structural statistics of companies from the ESANE scheme and the DADS ( Déclaration annuelle de données sociales – Annual Declaration of Social Data) to examine how recruitment difficulties are distributed by sector, location and size of the establishment and employment area characteristics. Together, these factors explain around 6% of the total variation in recruitment challenges, increasing to 14% when incorporating recruitment difficulties reported in the previous year. Most of the recruitment difficulties anticipated thus result from factors not observed in the data used in this article, potentially linked to the internal characteristics of each establishment, such as the qua- lity of management and specific recruitment processes. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse les difficultés anticipées par les entreprises en France lorsqu'elles envisagent de recruter. En croisant les données des enquêtes Besoins en main-d'oeuvre de 2018 et 2019 avec les données d'entreprise FARE et DADS, nous étudions comment les difficultés de recrutement se déclinent selon le secteur, la localisation et la taille de l'établissement et selon les caractéristiques du bassin d'emploi. L'ensemble de ces caractéristiques explique environ 6 % de la variance totale observée des difficultés de recrutement anticipées et jusqu'à 14 % si l'on y ajoute les difficultés de recrutement éventuellement anticipées l'année précédente. L'essentiel des difficultés anticipées résulte ainsi de facteurs non observés dans les données utilisées dans cet article, en lien potentiellement avec les caractéristiques internes propres à chaque établissement, comme la qualité du management et les spécificités des processus de recrutement. |
| Keywords: | company data, Probit, recruitment difficulties, données d'entreprises, difficultés de recrutement |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05185909 |
| By: | Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Lewis Dijkstra; Chiara Dorat |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, support for Eurosceptic parties has climbed from fringe to nearly one-third of voters. Promising renewed prosperity through less European integration, these partiesimplyEuroscepticismisa‘freelunch.’Drawingonanoriginalpanelof1, 166European NUTS-3 regions (2004-2023) and using fixed-, random-eNects, and diNerence-in-diNerences designs, we test how rising Euroscepticism connects with regional economic and demographic outcomes. We track GDP per capita, productivity, employment, and population growth. We find that a region 10 points more Eurosceptic than another could have ended up with GDP per capita roughly 5% lower than the less Eurosceptic region, as the negative economic influence of Euroscepticism compounds across cycles and intensified after the financial and austerity crises. The same applies for productivity and employment. Demographic impacts are smaller but point in the same direction. Even without governing, Eurosceptic support appears to deter investment and raise uncertainty, deepening the very stagnation that fuels discontent. There is no free lunch: political backlash against European integration carries a measurable costs for the regions that embrace it. |
| Keywords: | Euroscepticism; Economic development; Population growth; European integration; Political discontent; Regions; EU |
| JEL: | F15 D72 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2527 |
| By: | Vinzenz Pyka |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Germany, this study provides first evidence on the wage effects of collective bargaining compliance laws. These laws require establishments receiving public contracts to pay wages set by a representative collective agreement, even if they are not formally bound by one. Leveraging variation in the timing of law implementation across federal states, and focusing on the public transport sector -- where regulation is uniform and demand is driven solely by state-level needs -- I estimate dynamic treatment effects using event-study designs. The results indicate that within five years of the law's implementation, wage increases were on average 2.9\% to 4.6\% higher in federal states with such a law compared to those without one -- but only in East Germany. These findings highlight the potential for securing collectively agreed wages in times of declining collective bargaining coverage. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01458 |
| By: | J\"urgen Wiemers |
| Abstract: | Extensive research demonstrates that many households eligible for means-tested benefits do not claim them, a phenomenon known as non-take-up. Empirical studies frequently conceptualise non-take-up as a rational decision, occurring when the perceived net utility of claiming is negative. Theoretically, long-term factors can substantially impact this decision. Despite the potential relevance of longitudinal aspects, evidence on their influence remains limited. This study addresses this gap by incorporating long-term factors in the analysis of non-take-up behaviour relating to Unemployment Benefit II (UB II), Germany's basic means-tested welfare programme. Using data from the German Panel Study Labour Market and Social Security (PASS) from 2008 to 2020, linked with administrative data from Germany's Federal Employment Agency (PASS-ADIAB), this study reconstructs households' benefit receipt and income histories, even during non-survey periods. This allows modelling benefit non-take-up for eligible households using the duration and frequency of past benefit receipt. In addition, the use of administrative data mitigates bias from self-reported benefit receipt. Household eligibility for UB II is simulated using GETTSIM, an open-source microsimulation model, applied to the PASS dataset for the first time. Findings indicate that long-term factors significantly influence the probability of claiming UB II. Specifically, a longer history of benefit receipt increases this probability, whereas higher income potential and positive income shocks reduce it. Including long-term factors substantially affects the estimated impact of traditionally used determinants of non-take-up, indicating a potential misspecification in existing models that neglect them. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.21535 |
| By: | Morales, Marina |
| Abstract: | Using a panel dataset covering 27 European countries over a 53-year period, this study examines the relationship between paid paternity leave reforms and divorce rates. Controlling for policyrelated factors and other legislative changes affecting divorce, the dynamic analysis reveals that while the introduction of any paid paternity leave is initially associated with higher divorce rates, the effect becomes negative when focusing on policies offering 2 weeks or more of leave. The decrease in divorce rates becomes more significant as the length of leave increases and grows over time. Specifically, providing fathers with at least 2 weeks of paid leave after childbirth reduces divorce rates by 0.36 percentage points 15 years after implementation. Additional analyses of the underlying mechanisms suggest that, in the absence of extended paternity leave, the results are likely driven by improved labor market opportunities for women-a factor that may unintentionally increase the likelihood of divorce. |
| Keywords: | Paid paternity leave, divorce rates, Europe |
| JEL: | J48 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1659 |
| By: | Natalia Pozsonyiova (University of Economics in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive research on labor market programs, there is limited information on the effectiveness of current unemployment schemes targeting disadvantaged job seekers. A literature review reveals that labor market programs are generally viewed positively, with employment services deemed effective in terms of their impact on the unemployed or cost-effectiveness. This study examines the effectiveness of labor market programs implemented in the Slovak Republic from 2019 to 2023. These programs aimed either to create job opportunities directly or to provide counselling services to the long-term unemployed. The analysis utilized data from the Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs and Family, and the Office for Employment and Social Affairs, focusing on unemployed individuals who participated in programs targeting disadvantaged job seekers. Based on propensity score matching, participants in the programs were compared with non-participants during the specified period. The findings indicate that participation in a program does not affect the duration of long-term unemployment, which is primarily influenced by education and residence. However, the selected programs demonstrated a positive impact on participants, particularly in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Active Labor Market Policy, Labor Market Program, Disadvantaged Groups, Unemployment |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0497 |
| By: | Saki Bigio; Diego R. Känzig; Pablo Sánchez; Conor Walsh |
| Abstract: | Despite broad acceptance among economists, carbon taxes face persistent public resistance. We measure the sources and distribution of welfare losses from unexpected European carbon price changes by estimating their impact on consumer prices, labor income, financial wealth, and government transfers. A 1% carbon-policy-induced increase in energy prices yields an average welfare loss of about 1.5% of a year’s consumption, primarily driven by indirect labor-income effects. Younger, poorer, and less educated households, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe, bear a disproportionate burden. These findings suggest public opposition to carbon taxes stems from legitimate distributional concerns. |
| JEL: | D31 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34125 |
| By: | Eiblmeier, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper uses German microdata to test whether the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) spurred bank lending to non-financial firms. Bank-firm loan data allow me to control for loan demand at firm level. The share of bonds in banks’ total assets before QE serves as treatment proxy. While the effects are positive and statistically significant, they are small: Increasing the bond/asset share in a firm's lender bank by one standard deviation increases the de-trended outstanding bilateral loan volume by 3-5% of its within-sample mean. At firm level, no unambiguous effect can be observed. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional monetary policy, Germany, bank lending, portfolio rebalancing, panel regression |
| JEL: | C23 E51 E52 G11 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-740 |
| By: | Despina Gavresi; Anastasia Litina |
| Abstract: | In an era marked by repeated crises and the growing traction of populist movements, understanding the deep-rooted factors shaping EU cohesion has become increasingly urgent. This paper investigates how lifetime exposure to economic recessions influences individual attitudes toward the European Union (EU). Resorting to rich micro-data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Eurobarometer, we construct a detailed measure of economic hardship experienced during lifetime, capturing not just isolated downturns but the accumulated burden of multiple recessions over time. Importantly, we distinguish between various types of shocks-including output contractions, unemployment surges, consumption drops, participation in IMF adjustment programs, and the asymmetry or symmetry of crises across EU member states. We show that individuals with greater lifetime exposure to these economic shocks are more likely to distrust EU institutions, oppose further integration, vote for Eurosceptic parties, and support exiting the EU. These patterns are especially pronounced for asymmetric shocks, which disproportionately affect specific regions or countries, in contrast to symmetric shocks, which appear to foster a sense of shared fate and solidarity. A series of robustness tests-including placebo checks, heterogeneity analyses, diverse shock types and designs exploiting EU institutional structure -confirms the persistent impact of economic trauma on EU attitudes, underscoring the need to address historical recessions to safeguard cohesion and democratic legitimacy in the context of the EU. |
| Keywords: | recessions, european integration, EU cohesion, trust, EU institutions, euroscepticism |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12082 |
| By: | Bagger, Jesper (University of Edinburgh); Fontaine, Francois (Paris School of Economics); Galenianos, Manolis (University of London); Trapeznikova, Ija (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between output fluctuations and firms’ recruitment efforts using Danish data that link online job ads with high-frequency firm-level revenue and value-added. While overall output growth is weakly correlated with advertisement rates, decomposing output into permanent and transitory components reveals a strong link between persistent shocks and recruitment effort. A one standard deviation permanent shock raises advertisement rates by 10-16% of a standard deviation, whereas transitory shocks show no significant effect. These results highlight the importance of shock persistence in labor demand and offer empirical support for dynamic search-and-matching models of the labor market. |
| Keywords: | value-added growth, revenue growth, output growth, online job advertisements, vacancies, permanent and transitory shocks |
| JEL: | J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18068 |
| By: | Billington, Stephen D. (Ulster University Business School, Ulster University); Colvin, Christopher L. (Queen’s Business School, Queen’s University Belfast); Coyle, Christopher (Queen’s Business School, Queen’s University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the design of the patent system shapes firms’ access to finance. We exploit a UK reform that introduced substantive examination into the patent application process, improving the quality of information available to investors about the value of firms’ innovation. Using a newly compiled dataset of officially listed corporations, we find that firms with examined patents increased their borrowing, reflecting improved access to capital markets, which translated into firm growth. Our results highlight how patent examination can function as a screening mechanism that reduces information asymmetry, strengthens the signalling value of patents, and mitigates financial barriers to innovation. |
| Keywords: | firm finance, debt, innovation, patents, patent examination, signalling. JEL Classification: G32, N23, N43, O16, O31, O34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:767 |
| By: | Emma Harrington; Matthew E. Kahn |
| Abstract: | When women become mothers, they often take a step back from their careers. Could work from home (WFH) reduce this motherhood penalty, particularly in traditionally family-unfriendly careers? We leverage technological changes prior to the pandemic that increased the feasibility of WFH in some college degrees but not others. In degrees where WFH increased, motherhood gaps in employment narrowed: for every 10% increase in WFH, mothers’ employment rates increased by 0.78 per centage points (or 0.94%) relative to other women’s. This change is driven by majors linked to careers that have high returns to hours and inflexible demands on workers’ time. We microfound these results using panel data that show that women who could WFH before childbirth are less likely to exit the workforce. |
| JEL: | H2 J01 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34147 |
| By: | Lukas B. Freund; Lukas F. Mann |
| Abstract: | Who will gain and who will lose as AI automates tasks? While much of the discourse focuses on job displacement, we show that job transformation—a shift in the task content of jobs—creates large and heterogeneous earnings effects. We develop a quantitative, task-based model where occupations bundle multiple tasks and workers possessing heterogeneous portfolios of task-specific skills select into occupations by comparative advantage. Automation shifts the relative importance of tasks within each occupation, inducing wage effects that we characterize analytically. To quantify these effects, we measure the task content of jobs using natural language processing, estimate the distribution of task-specific skills, and exploit mappings to prominent automation exposure measures to identify task-specific automation shocks. We apply the framework to analyze automation by large language models (LLMs). Within highly exposed occupations, like office and administrative roles, workers specialized in information-processing tasks leave and suffer wage losses. By contrast, those specialized in customer-facing and coordination tasks stay and experience wage gains as work rebalances toward their strengths. Our findings challenge the common assumption that automation exposure equates to wage losses. |
| Keywords: | AI, labor markets, inequality, skills, technological change |
| JEL: | J01 E00 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12072 |
| By: | Vilerts, Karlis (Latvijas Banka); Anyfantaki, Sofia (European Central Bank); Benkovskis, Konstantins (Latvijas Banka); Bredl, Sebastian (Deutsche Bundesbank); Giovannini, Massimo (Bank of Malta); Matthias Horky, Florian (Národná banka Slovenska, Zeppelin University); Kunzmann, Vanessa (Bank of Malta and Deutsche Bundesbank); Lalinský, Tibor (Národná banka Slovenska); Lampousis, Athanasios (Bank of Greece); Lukmanova, Elizaveta (Central Bank of Ireland and KU Leuven); Petroulakis, Filippos (Bank of Greece); Zutis, Klavs (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | Does the maturity of the relevant risk-free rate influence the strength of monetary policy pass-through to interest rates on new loans? To address this question, we present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022–2023. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed- vs floatingrate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the riskfree rate yield curve which, in turn, influence their sensitivity to monetary policy changes. We show that loans linked to shorter-maturity risk-free rates experience more pronounced monetary pass-through. Importantly, this effect is not purely mechanical, as part of the effect is offset by adjustments in the premium, revealing previously less-explored heterogeneity in the passthrough to lending rates. |
| Keywords: | Lending Rates, Interest Rate Pass-Through, Fixed-Rate Loans, Floating-Rate Loans. |
| JEL: | E52 E43 G21 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:8/rt/25 |
| By: | Luca Bonacini; Giuseppe Pignataro; Veronica Rattini |
| Abstract: | Understanding the role of information among disadvantaged students is crucial in explaining their investment decisions in higher education. Indeed, information barriers on the returns and the gains from completing college may explain a substantial share of variation in students' degree completion. We conduct a field experiment with 7, 806 university students in Italy who benefit from financial aid assistance, by providing information, either on the labor market returns of completing college or on the education returns of meeting the academic requirements attached to the financial aid. Our results suggest that only the latter information treatment has a positive effect on academic performance, increasing the number of credits obtained by around 3, and by decreasing the probability of dropout by around 4 percentage points. We also find that the results are mediated by an aspiration lift generated by our treatment. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.02560 |
| By: | Corey J. A. Bradshaw; Shana M. McDermott |
| Abstract: | Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the fear that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. But these fears are frequently based on oversimplified or misapplied interpretations of economic models, and appear to be driven more by political agendas rather than evidence. In reality, long-term prosperity depends more on how societies invest in education, skills, and technology, not just how many people they have. We examine national data at the global scale to test whether slower population growth or ageing populations are linked to worse economic or social outcomes. Using nine different indices of socio-economic performance (domestic comprehensive wealth, income equality, research and development expenditure, patent applications, human capital, corruption perception index, freedom, planetary pressure-adjusted Human Development Index, healthy life expectancy at birth), we find no evidence that they are. In fact, we find that countries with low or negative population growth perform better on average for all indicators, and that even within-country time series show that most older and slower-growing populations fare better on average. These findings challenge common assumptions and highlight the need to move beyond fear-based and politically motivated narratives toward a more informed understanding of what truly supports thriving societies. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16872 |
| By: | Ko Adachi (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kato (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the second-round effect of raw material price increases using a DSGE model. Specifically, it explores how price increases driven by rising raw material costs spill over into wages, which then feed back into prices. The analysis focuses on Japan and Europe, which share similar structures in terms of raw material inputs. The results show that the first-round effect, which captures the pass-through of rising raw material costs to prices, is slower in Japan than in Europe. On the other hand, the second-round effect through wages is gradual but persistent in both Japan and Europe. Furthermore, during the period of high inflation since 2020, the first-round effect of higher raw material costs was the main driver of inflation in both Japan and Europe, while the second-round effect contributed to the persistence of inflation. The paper also suggests that the recent changes in wage rigidity in Japan may have strengthened the second-round effect. |
| Keywords: | Wages; Prices; Second-Round Effects; DSGE Model |
| JEL: | E17 E31 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e10 |
| By: | Boyd, Laura (Central Bank of Ireland); McIndoe-Calder, Tara (Central Bank of Ireland); Zekaite, Zivile (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | Households’ beliefs about house prices have the potential to impact market and aggregate outcomes. As such, it is important to understand what determines them. Using 2018 data from the HFCS, we show that Irish homeowners extrapolate from their personal experience of own house price growth to date when forming their beliefs about how house prices could change in the near future. In addition, local experience of house prices (captured by the location of the home) and housing acquisition experience (identified by the year the home was acquired) also appear to be important and distinct determinants of house price expectations. Households who perceive higher returns on their home, are located near Dublin or who acquired their home from 2008 onwards are more optimistic about future house prices. Meanwhile, risk aversion, ownership of other property and perceiving household income over the past year to be lower than normal are associated with more pessimistic expectations. |
| Keywords: | expectations, experiences, beliefs, house prices, surveys, household analysis. |
| JEL: | D84 G5 R2 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:7/rt/25 |
| By: | Rasmus Ingemann Tuffveson Jensen; Sebastian Holmby Hansen; Kalle Johannes Rose |
| Abstract: | Almost all countries in the world require banks to report suspicious transactions to national authorities. The reports are known as suspicious transaction or activity reports (we use the former term) and are intended to help authorities detect and prosecute money laundering. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between suspicious transaction reports and convictions for money laundering in the European Union. We use publicly available data from Europol, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics. To analyze the data, we employ a log-transformation and fit pooled (i.e., ordinary least squares) and fixed effects regression models. The fixed effects models, in particular, allow us to control for unobserved country-specific confounders (e.g., different laws regarding when and how reports should be filed). Initial results indicate that the number of suspicious transaction reports and convictions for money laundering in a country follow a sub-linear power law. Thus, while more reports may lead to more convictions, their marginal effect decreases with their amount. The relationship is robust to control variables such as the size of shadow economies and police forces. However, when we include time as a control, the relationship disappears in the fixed effects models. This suggests that the relationship is spurious rather than causal, driven by cross-country differences and a common time trend. In turn, a country cannot, ceteris paribus and with statistical confidence, expect that an increase in suspicious transaction reports will drive an increase in convictions. Our results have important implications for international anti-money laundering efforts and policies. (...) |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.18932 |
| By: | Andrea Bernini; Navid Sabet |
| Abstract: | We study how immigrant legalization affects political representation and public service delivery, focusing on the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), which granted legal status to nearly three million undocumented Hispanic migrants. Using geographic variation in IRCA exposure and newly digitized data on 12, 000 Hispanic officials, we find legalization increased Hispanic representation in local government and facilitated upward mobility from school boards into municipal and county offices. These changes altered institutional behavior, shifting education spending toward capital investment and diversifying the racial composition of the teaching workforce. Immigration policy thus reshapes who governs and how public goods are allocated. |
| Keywords: | legalization, political representation, political mobility, local public finance |
| JEL: | J15 H75 D72 I28 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12081 |
| By: | Guido Friebel; Matthias Heinz; Mitchell Hoffman; Tobias Kretschmer; Nick Zubanov |
| Abstract: | In a large German bakery chain, many workers report negative perceptions of monitoring via checklists. We survey workers and managers about the value and time costs to all in-store checklists, leading the firm to randomly remove two of the most perceivedly time-consuming and low-value checklists in half of stores. Sales increase and store manager attrition substantially decreases, and this occurs without a rise in measurable workplace problems. Before random assignment, regional managers predict whether the treatment would be effective for each store they oversee. Ex post, beneficial effects of checklist removal are fully concentrated in stores where regional managers predict the treatment will be effective, reflecting substantial heterogeneity in returns that is well-understood by these upper managers. Effects of checklist removal do not appear to come from workers having more time for production, but rather coincide with improvements in employee trust and commitment. Following the RCT, the firm implemented firmwide reductions in monitoring, eliminating a checklist regarded as demeaning, but keeping a checklist that helps coordinate production. |
| JEL: | M50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34122 |
| By: | Johnson, David H. |
| Abstract: | Dominant wellness models have long shaped frameworks in public health, behavioral care, and education. However, they often overlook the structural, cultural, and systemic conditions that define wellness for marginalized and justice-impacted communities. Foundational models such as Hettler’s Six Dimensions and Swarbrick’s Eight Dimensions provide essential scaffolding but fail to capture the full spectrum of harm and potential for healing within communities shaped by colonizing systems: the structures and ideologies that perpetuate colonialism. This article introduces the 12 Dimensions of Wellness: a justice-rooted, community-informed framework that incorporates four essential yet underrepresented domains in mainstream literature: creative, cultural, digital, and the newly defined carceral wellness. Carceral wellness, introduced here for the first time, is defined as a relative state of immunity to, resilience from, or recovery after the physical, psychological, social, and systemic harms imposed by carceral systems. It reflects both the enduring impacts of criminalization and the capacity to construct life-affirming alternatives. Grounded in lived experience and participatory insight, this framework offers a culturally situated and structurally aware reconceptualization of interdimensional wellness. The article explores the model’s theoretical underpinnings, its intersections, and envisioned applications across health, legal, and social systems, advocating for a wellness paradigm rooted not only in individual behavior but in collective liberation. |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y3kc4_v1 |
| By: | Katharina Lewellen; Gordon M. Phillips; Giorgo Sertsios |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of the governance structures of nonprofit hospitals and hospital systems. We study both the internal governance mechanisms (boards of directors, incentive contracts) and external mechanisms (market for corporate control, government oversight), with particular focus on the latter. Nonprofit boards are unusually large, include employee directors, exhibit less industry expertise among outside directors, and face weak external oversight. CEO pay and turnover are largely unresponsive to non-financial metrics such as quality or charity provision. The disciplinary role of the market for corporate control is also weaker in the nonprofit sector: nonprofits with poor financial performance are half as likely to be acquired or closed as for-profits, and weak performance on non-financial metrics has no effect on acquisitions or closures. Using time-series and cross-sectional variation in state oversight of nonprofits, we find that oversight strength explains a substantial portion of the gap in takeover rates between for-profits and nonprofits. We conclude that nonprofit governance structures lack the attributes traditionally associated with “good governance.” |
| JEL: | G3 G30 G31 G34 G38 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34132 |
| By: | Ferran Sancho |
| Abstract: | In this note, we examine the general validity of long-established identities relating to price elasticities of demand and elasticities of substitution, which have traditionally been assumed to hold. The central finding is that under non-homothetic preferences, these fundamental identities cease to hold, thereby rendering any derived calculations based on them unreliable. Additionally, for scenarios where these identities remain valid, we present their extension to the n-good case. |
| Keywords: | elasticity identities; price elasticity of demand; substitution elasticity |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aub:autbar:977.25 |
| By: | Marius Faber; Gabriel Züllig |
| Abstract: | We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area, allowing for nonlinearities – or kinks – in the relationship between labor market slack and inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in labor market conditions in the period 2001–2024, absorbing aggregate shocks and endogenous monetary policy reactions with time fixed effects. We find that, while the Phillips curve is usually quite flat, it becomes at least three times steeper when the labor market is sufficiently tight. This kink is more pronounced in the euro area than in the United States, potentially due to more rigid labor markets. Our estimates suggest, however, that despite this nonlinearity, most of the post-pandemic inflation surge is attributable to factors other than labor market tightness. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, inflation, nonlinearities |
| JEL: | E30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12084 |
| By: | Schmöller, Michaela; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Schmidt, Tobias |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the ef- fect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes. Responses to hikes and cuts are significant and largely symmetric at the baseline rate (4.5%), though we detect potential state-dependent asymmetry due to the extensive margin. The financing channel emerges as one of the trans- mission channels, with more pronounced effects in firms with higher shares of bank loans and variable-rate loans. Crucially, we show that monetary policy transmits via aggregate demand, with stronger responses in firms with pessimistic demand expectations. Forward guidance provides substantial additional stimulus by re- ducing uncertainty about future rates, suggesting long-term, supply-side effects of announcements. These results challenge monetary long-run neutrality and are sug- gestive of policy endogeneity of R∗ operating through innovation-driven technology growth. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission, R&D, Endogenous Growth, ForwardGuidance, R∗ |
| JEL: | E52 E22 E24 O30 D22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:324662 |
| By: | Fotis Vouzas (University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the link between Business Ethics and Quality Management. Business Ethics as a management practice is well rooted in many organizations, but its contribution to quality management implementation programs and practices is not well documented. The ISO 9000:2015 standard and the Business Excellence frameworks and awards provide a basis for the implementation of a Total Quality Management (TQM) philosophy, which is a distinctive approach to improving organizational performance and attaining competitive advantage. The main purpose of this paper is to examine various issues related to Business Ethics, including corporate citizenship, human rights, environmental protection, consumer protection, occupational health and safety, dishonest business practices (such as corruption, idleness, and weave problems), and investigate the relationship to Total Quality Management in an MNC operating in Greece. The data gathering was carried out through extensive and in-depth interviews with multiple informants, including the plant manager, the production manager, and the personnel manager, utilizing a semi-structured questionnaire with open-ended questions. The goal was to collect data and produce basic information, enabling qualitative observations concerning organizations’ Quality and Business Ethics programs and initiatives |
| Keywords: | Total Quality Management, Business Ethics, Greece, ISO 9000 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0503 |
| By: | Elkerbout, Milan (Resources for the Future); Kopp, Raymond J. (Resources for the Future); Rennert, Kevin (Resources for the Future); Nehrkorn, Katarina (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | In our 2023 report, Carbon Border Adjustments: Design Elements, Options, and Policy Decisions, we provided an overview of critical design elements in carbon border adjustment policies. We compared these design elements, such as how fees are set and the product scope, across several border adjustment mechanisms (BAMs) including the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU CBAM); the Clean Competition Act (CCA) proposal and the Foreign Pollution Fee Act (FPFA) proposal. In April 2025, a revised version of the FPFA was reintroduced in the Senate by Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). This issue brief uses the design elements introduced in our original BAM report to describe the policy reflected in the updated bill.The FPFA recognizes in its design and structure that the United States has reduced its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions substantially over time, and that US manufacturers face costs to comply with environmental regulations that are not faced uniformly by many countries US manufacturers compete with. Though US emissions have decreased, the United States is also a significant importer of GHGs embodied in primary commodities and manufactured products from countries that have not taken comparable actions to reduce their emissions.A primary purpose of the FPFA is to level the playing field for US manufacturers vis-à-vis manufacturers in jurisdictions with higher average carbon intensities in selected sectors and thereby reduce the importation of embodied GHGs. The FPFA seeks to accomplish this goal by imposing a fee on embodied imported GHGs for a set of product categories that are highly traded and also have high GHG intensities. The proposed fees are intended to disincentivize US importation of such products from countries with poor environmental performance, incentivize increased importation from countries with high environmental performance and greater US manufacturing overall, and address concerns about international industrial competitiveness. The primary focus on leveling the playing field for US manufacturers means that the FPFA does not include provisions to require further reductions in greenhouse gases by domestic manufacturers, in contrast to other proposals such as the CCA.BAMs are complicated and technical policy instruments, and the FPFA is no exception. To describe the FPFA in this brief, we discuss it in terms of the seven design elements of BAMs we laid out in our earlier report. We have made every effort to be concise with respect to our descriptions of the policy approach taken in the legislation, but that has required us to abstract from a great deal of detail that exists within the legislative text. This issue brief is intended to provide a roadmap to understanding the approach taken by the FPFA but should not be considered a complete and comprehensive description and review. |
| Date: | 2023–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-23-09 |