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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Averkamp, Dorothée |
| JEL: | J12 J16 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc24:302347 |
| By: | Adriana Kugler |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:98934 |
| By: | Koeniger, Winfried; Kress, Peter; Lehmann, Jonas |
| Abstract: | We analyze the novel transactional card expenditure data for Germany and Austria provided by Fable Data. We describe key features of the data in terms of the coverage of expenditure items, payment channels, and the distribution of expenditures across regions and time. We highlight strengths and limitations of the data by comparing them to more consolidated lower-frequency information from external data sources. We find very similar expenditure patterns in Germany and Austria. We illustrate the advantages of the granular, higher-frequency information across expenditure items and locations by analyzing how consumption expenditures evolved during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Consumption expenditures, Transactional data, Austria, Germany |
| JEL: | C80 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2024:02 |
| By: | Javier Marco Gracia (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2); Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2) |
| Abstract: | So far, studies on household income and consumption in Southern Europe have primarily focused on rural areas and factory workers. In this study, we aim to incorporate evidence of household income, considering the earnings of all household members and not just the male wage, using the population list of Zaragoza (Spain) from 1924. This population list is the first to systematically record the wages of all citizens regardless of their family role or age. Our results confirm that in 1924, most working-class households still required the labor of women and/or children to meet basic consumption needs (on average, they contributed nearly 60% of the household income). The findings also indicate that, despite a high percentage of agricultural workers (around 35% of households), agricultural day laborers were poorly paid compared to those in the industry. The seasonal nature of agricultural work likely made it even less attractive. Nevertheless, industrial wages were 18% higher than those of day laborers, and about 20% of unskilled workers were employed in industry. The relatively small size of the industrial sector and its modest wages may explain why Zaragoza was not yet a major attraction for immigrants from other regions, as it would become in the second half of the twentieth century. Employment in commerce, the military (with its associated risks), or professional occupations was associated with higher incomes, along with the ownership of production means or land. |
| Keywords: | : Wage, Urban, Household income, Purchasing capacity, Spain. |
| JEL: | N14 N34 N54 N64 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2024-01 |
| By: | Dimitris Georgarakos; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Olivier Coibion; Geoff Kenny |
| Abstract: | We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key findings. First, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months, while a higher expected level of inflation increases them. Second, an increase in uncertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towards safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third, higher inflation uncertainty encourages household job search, leading to higher subsequent employment among the unemployed and less under-employment among the employed. Finally, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a different effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is crucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decisions. |
| JEL: | C83 D84 E31 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33014 |
| By: | Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses factors that contributed to different economic dynamics across European regions and the prevailing disparities. The impact of EU Cohesion Policy in reducing disparities is studied based on the empirical evidence on the effects of EU regional policy. With more than thirty years of experience, several important conclusions can be drawn about the effectiveness and efficiency of place-based transfers in Europe. While EU regional policy has not completely countered market-driven processes that lead to regional disparities, it appears to have modestly alleviated them. To enhance the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy, this chapter advocates for an improved policy design and a shift in emphasis towards local institutions and governments in recipient regions, emphasizing that merely increasing the volume of transfers cannot compensate for these improvements. |
| Keywords: | : EU Structural Policy, Place-based policies, regional inequality, economic geography |
| JEL: | R10 R50 H20 F20 D70 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper46 |
| By: | Emter, Lorenz; Setzer, Ralph; Zorell, Nico; Moura, Afonso S. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified high-frequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the short term than in the medium term. However, this result for the euro area average hides significant heterogeneity across countries. In economies with weak institutional quality, medium-term growth risks increase substantially following contractionary monetary policy shocks. In contrast, these risks remain relatively stable in countries with high institutional quality. This suggests that improvements in institutional quality could significantly enhance euro area countries’ economic resilience and support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. JEL Classification: C23, E52, F45, G28, O43 |
| Keywords: | Euro area, growth-at-risk, institutional quality, monetary policy transmission |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242989 |
| By: | Robert Breunig; Wei Cheng; Laura Montenovo; Kyoung Hoon Lee; Bruce A. Weinberg; Yinjunjie Zhang |
| Abstract: | The authors study employment outcomes during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in eight countries with different case levels and policy responses: the United States, Australia, France, Denmark, Italy, South Korea, Spain, and Sweden. While the share of people not at work increased in all countries, safety net policies seem to influence whether people remained employed (but absent from work) versus unemployed or left the labor force. The authors find large employment decreases among middle-educated and young workers, increasing disparities in countries with the largest labor market declines. A variety of evidence suggests that labor demand was likely a larger driver of employment declines than labor supply and that stringent social distancing policies were sufficient to reduce employment even in the absence of high cases. Lastly, job characteristics - the importance of face-to-face interactions and the ability to work remotely - were closely related to labor market outcomes, with these relationships being stronger in countries with more cases. |
| JEL: | I1 J10 J23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33029 |
| By: | Chatzistamoulou, Nikos; Koundouri, Phoebe |
| Abstract: | The European Green Deal prioritizes green growth through resource efficiency and eco-innovation to achieve the transition in a sustainable and inclusive growth orbit. To monitor progress in such endeavor the EU Resource Efficiency Scoreboard was launched. Focusing on the resource productivity, which is the main sustainability development indicator and policy evaluation tool for Europe and the eco-innovation performance of the EU-28 over a twenty-year period, from 2000 though 2019, we explore convergence patterns and club formation. Descriptive analysis via growth rates of the resource productivity and eco-innovation indicates productivity differentials among the countries giving rise to heterogeneity groups. Econometric results using convergence algorithms advocate in favor of convergence for both variables. However, convergence clubs surface highlighting that there is heterogeneity to consider when designing policies to promote sustainability transition to ensure that no one is left behind serving the priority of inclusive and sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Resource Productivity, Eco-Innovation, Sustainability, Convergence, Technological Heterogeneity, European Green Deal |
| JEL: | O1 O3 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122104 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Lucas Menescal; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for 31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our findings reveal that European nations primarily respond to global uncertainty by concentrating their exports and imports among top trading partners particularly their top 5 highest trading partners. This result is more pronounced when uncertainty is driven by low-income countries. Moreover, there is a stronger relationship between imports and global uncertainty compared to exports. Our study underscores the importance of European economies strategically adapting their export and import approaches in response to these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty; Trade Flows; International Trade; European Economies |
| JEL: | C23 E44 F14 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03462024 |
| By: | Koundouri, Phoebe; Halkos, George; Landis, Conrad; Dellis, Konstantinos; Stratopoulou, Artemis; Plataniotis, Angelos; Chioatto, Elisa |
| Abstract: | This paper refers to the valuation of European, Marine and Fresh Water Ecosystem Services. Using a meta-regression approach, we estimate the Annual Willingness to Pay (WTP) for several classifications of the ecosystem services and various biogeographical and marine regions across all twenty-seven EU markets. Moreover, we explore the correlation between WTP and the national level of achievement of the 17 SDGs, with particular focus on SDG 14 - Life Below Water. Results indicate that regulating services of marine and freshwater ecosystems are ranked high and that in almost 63% of the European countries, the WTP for the improvement of the marine & freshwater ecosystem is high and exceeds estimates for terrestrial ecosystems. Valuing ecosystem services and link them to the Sustainable Development Goals, we find that marine ecosystems are mainly positively correlated to SDGs 2, 12, 13, 14 and 17, while a high MWTP value is assigned to specific SDG14 individual indicators like fish caught from overexploited or collapsed stocks and fish caught that are then discarded. Overall, results indicate that societies attributing greater value to ecosystem services mark greater progress towards the implementation of SDGs and SDG 14 in particular. |
| Keywords: | Valuation, Sustainable Development Goals, Ecosystem Services, Meta-Regression, Marine, Freshwater |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122023 |
| By: | Langot, François; Maillard, Jocelyn; Malmberg, Selma; Tripier, Fabien; Hairault, Jean-Olivier |
| Abstract: | Après de nombreuses années de déficit public, 2024 est marquée par une brutale dégradation des comptes publics se concluant par l’ouverture d’une procédure de déficit excessif par l’Union européenne. Le gouvernement doit démontrer sa capacité à maîtriser ses finances publiques. Maîtriser les finances publiques nécessite dans un premier temps de stabiliser le ratio dette sur PIB, pour ensuite parvenir à le réduire durablement. Au-delà de cette inversion de tendance, le risque que la dette publique connaisse, à l’avenir, de nouvelles hausses doit aussi être limité. En effet, l’économie française sera toujours heurtée par des aléas conjoncturels pouvant dégrader ses finances publiques. Quelle politique permettrait d’inverser la dynamique de la dette publique tout en limitant le risque de hausses futures de la dette en cas de conjoncture défavorable ? Cette note propose la mise en place de règles budgétaires engageant le gouvernement à réduire ses dépenses. Au-delà de l’évolution « moyenne » du ratio d’endettement public, nous évaluons également la probabilité que celui-ci dépasse un certain seuil, selon la règle de consolidation budgétaire mise en œuvre. Deux stratégies, permettant toutes deux d’économiser en moyenne 30 Milliards d’euros par an jusqu’en 2027, sont comparées : l’une réduit la consommation publique (dépenses des administrations), l’autre les transferts aux ménages. Ces politiques impactent les finances publiques et modifient de façon spécifique les réactions des ménages et des entreprises à la conjoncture. À l’horizon 2027, les baisses de transferts réduisent davantage le ratio dette sur PIB que les baisses de consommation publique (-4, 9 points contre -3, 5 points). Mais, si la consolidation budgétaire s’opère via une baisse de la consommation publique, il y aurait alors 25 % de chances que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 126, 6 % en 2027 contre 127, 6 % en l’absence de consolidation budgétaire. Alors que cette stratégie réduit bien en moyenne l’endettement, elle ne permet pas d’éviter le risque de voir la dette dépasser 125 % dans 25 % des cas. En effet, elle comprime à court terme la demande en cas de conjoncture défavorable, ce qui ralentit la croissance économique et donc augmente le risque d’accroissement de la dette (en 2026, il y aurait même 25 % de chances que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 127 % avec cette politique). En revanche, si la consolidation budgétaire passe par une baisse des transferts aux ménages, les risques de hausses futures de la dette publique seront plus faibles : il y aurait 25 % de chance que le ratio dette sur PIB dépasse 122, 2 % en 2027 contre 127, 6 % en l’absence de consolidation budgétaire, soit une réduction de 5, 4 points. En effet, en cas de conjoncture défavorable, la réduction des transferts réduit moins l’activité économique que la réduction de la consommation publique, car les ménages compensent ces plus faibles transferts reçus par une baisse de leur épargne et une hausse de leur offre de travail.. |
| Keywords: | Croissance, déficit public, dette publique, Inflation, soutenabilité de la dette, Taux d'intérêt, Traité européen |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notmac:2403 |
| By: | Ahnert, Toni (European Central Bank); Bertsch, Christoph (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Leonello, Agnese (European Central Bank); Marquez, Robert (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Shocks to banks’ ability to raise liquidity at short notice can lead to depositor panics, as evidenced by recent bank failures. Why don’t banks take a more active role in managing these risks? In a standard bank-run model, we show that risk management failures are most prevalent when exposures are more severe and managing risk would be particularly valuable. Bank capital and deposit insurance coverage act as substitutes for risk management on the intensive margin but as complements on its extensive margin, encouraging the adoption of risk management operations. We provide insights for the appropriate regulation of bank risk-management operations. |
| Keywords: | Banking crises; depositor withdrawals; asset valuations; risk management |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0441 |
| By: | Thiago Revil T. Ferreira; Nils M. Gornemann; Julio L. Ortiz |
| Abstract: | Household savings rose above trend in many developed countries after the onset of COVID-19. Given its link to aggregate consumption, the presence of these "excess savings" has raised questions about their implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a panel of euro-area economies and high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we document that household excess savings dampen the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, especially during the pandemic period. To rationalize our empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model in which households use savings to self-insure against counter-cyclical unemployment and consumption risk. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Excess Savings; Precautionary Savings; Consumption Risk; Unemployment |
| JEL: | E12 E21 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1397 |
| By: | Jacques Bughin |
| Abstract: | Dr Jacques Bughin is currently Chief Executive Officer of Machaon Advisory, specialising in digital technology economics and top management consultancy. Previously, he was a senior partner at McKinsey & Co. and leader of the McKinsey Global Institute. He collaborates with multiple institutions, from the United Nations (UN), the Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Board of the European Parliament to the Portulans Institute and the Accenture Research Board. He has been a professor of management practices and is now a senior adviser to private equity companies, Fortino Capital and Antler. He has published widely on technology and AI, in among others Sloan Management Review, Harvard Business Review, Technovation, Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and European Business Review. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, corporate transformation, capabilities, strategic change, AI factory, total productivity growth |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/378248 |
| By: | Pablo Garcia; Pascal Jacquinot; Crt Lenarcic; Kostas Mavromatis; Niki Papadopoulou; Edgar Silgado-Gómez |
| Abstract: | We analyze the economic impact of the green transition in the euro area by extending the Euro Area and Global Economy (EAGLE) model to include green and brown energy sectors. In this model, energy goods are consumed both as final goods by households and as inputs by intermediate goods firms. A carbon tax acts as a cost-push shock, creating stagflation ary effects, particularly when fiscal interventions are not primary-balance neutral. Without subsidies for green energy firms, the green transition is limited to a shift in household ex penditure towards green energy goods. However, when authorities provide subsidies to green energy firms, intermediate goods firms also increase their demand for green energy inputs, thereby strengthening the demand channel in the green energy market and driving its price upward. When carbon taxes are raised globally and governments redistribute carbon tax revenues to green energy firms, the recession in the euro area deepens, and inflationary pres sures increase, partly due to a weakening euro. Taxes on brown capital investment are also contractionary but lead to lower inflation. In this scenario, subsidies for investment in green energy capital can help mitigate the recession. However, overall, taxes on brown capital investment are less effective in driving the green transition compared to carbon taxes. Classification-JEL: C53, E32, E52, F45, H30, Q48 |
| Keywords: | DSGE Modelling, International Spillovers, Monetary Union, Euro Area, COVID-19 Climate Policy, Carbon Taxation, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Euro Area, DSGE modeling |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp190 |
| By: | Antonia Díaz (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | Wealthier, risk-averse buyers pay more to expedite up transactions in competitive search markets. This, coupled with forward-looking intermediaries who hold vacant homes overnight, implies that a credit expansion produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes over time. This boom is due to a combination of two effects. First, search and matching frictions imply that buyers are willing to pay a higher price to trade faster, not only to consume housing services. Second, the fact that intermediaries are forward-looking implies that trading probabilities today depend on the future evolution of prices. Since agents forecast that prices are higher than in the initial steady state, they turn to trading today. Our theory produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes and a gradual rise of homeownership rate. |
| Keywords: | Competitive search; Wealth effects; Housing prices; Credit constraints; Housing supply; Elasticity; Rental market; Transitional dynamics. |
| JEL: | D31 D83 E21 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2404 |