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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | LEVENTI Chrysa (European Commission - JRC); MAZZON Alberto (European Commission - JRC); ORLANDI Fabrice |
| Abstract: | In 2022 inflation hit European economies in a severe way. To protect the purchasing power of households, EU Member States adopted a series of exceptional fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we turn our focus on wage indexation, a policy option that has been relatively less explored in the relevant literature. Our objective is to analyse the (first-order) fiscal and distributional impact of wage indexation and of its two main subsequent effects, fiscal drag and benefit erosion. Using EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU, we construct three hypothetical scenarios with uniform/diversified inflation shocks and with/without compensation schemes for the income losses caused by benefit erosion. We find that the budgetary impact of wage indexation varies widely among European countries. Interestingly, we also observe that in most countries, the relative magnitude of fiscal drag and benefit erosion is not affected by the magnitude of the increase in employment income. Our estimates suggest that in almost half of the countries, fiscal drag and benefit erosion cause an implicit increase in government revenues sufficient to finance an indexation of benefits and pensions to the inflation of that year. The latter would be associated with a substantial decrease in income inequality in the vast majority of EU Member States. Finally, we discuss how the existing automatic indexation adjustments embedded in EU countries’ personal income tax schedules affect the magnitude and distributional implications of fiscal drag. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202408 |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd (University of Marburg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss. |
| Keywords: | refugees, EU migration, immigration, labour market, perceptions, competition, job loss, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17278 |
| By: | Becker, Sebastian (Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS), Germany); Gehlen, Annica (DIW Berlin); Geyer, Johannes (DIW Berlin); Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We provide novel evidence about the incentive and welfare effects of an increase in the generosity of disability benefits. Importantly, a unique policy variation in Germany allows us to isolate the income effect of a change in benefit generosity. We leverage this quasi-experimental policy variation using an RD design to estimate the effect of increasing disability benefits on employment, earnings, labor market transitions, and mortality outcomes using administrative data on the universe of new disability benefit recipients. Contrary to previous literature, our analysis reveals no significant impact on the employment and earnings of DI recipients due to the increased benefits. However, we find a sizable effect of the probability of returning to the labor market. We find no effects on recipient mortality six years after benefit award, but estimates imply a notable reduction in poverty risk, highlighting meaningful welfare implications of increased generosity. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, pension reform, wealth effect, labor supply, mortality, RDD |
| JEL: | H55 I12 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17298 |
| By: | Luis Ayala (UNED); Olga Canto (Universidad de Alcala); Rosa Martinez (UNED); Carolina Navarro (UNED); Marina Romaguera-de-la-Cruz (UNED) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to propose a set of dimensions and indicators to measure the incidence and trends of unmet social needs related to well-being and aggregate them into a composite index. We contribute to the current literature on the measurement of social needs through broader and more systematic indicators based on the principles of access, quality, and equity. Using different microdata sources, we take a selected sample of European countries that are representative of different welfare regimes to illustrate the possibilities of this proposal. Our results are not very sensitive to the use of different weighting schemes or aggregation methods and show that the degree of unmet needs is related to the country's type of welfare regime. |
| Keywords: | unmet social needs, composite index, Europe, welfare regimes |
| JEL: | I31 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-677 |
| By: | Anders Broström (School of Industrial Engineering and Management, KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Cornelia Lawson (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester); Mabel Sanchez Barrioluengo (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | Science is widely embraced as an important prerequisite for innovation, and there is widespread support for public investment in science on that basis. It remains less clear to what extent the general public also perceives science as a relevant source of expertise on technological development and innovation. Drawing on representative panels from two European countries (the United Kingdom and Sweden), we investigate whether scientists are perceived as credible senders of messages regarding future technological development and its consequences. We apply a conjoint analysis methodology. Specifically, we estimate the credibility of scientists by comparing how respondents’ assessments of societal challenges statements change with the attribution of that statement to scientists, compared with attribution to other type of expert groups (government, businesspersons, and issue advocates). While our study identifies positively framed predictions about new technology and innovation as a domain where scientific expertise is perceived as enjoying relatively high credibility, actors representing business and special interest groups are overall perceived as more credible conveyors of ‘bad news’, of negatively framed messages about the future. Implications for our understanding of the social contract of science are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Scientific Experts, Expertise, Trust in Science, SDGs, Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdj:smioir:2024-04 |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Szymczak |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the adoption of automation technologies – industrial robots and software and databases – on the incidence of atypical employment in 13 E.U. countries between 2006 and 2018. We combine survey microdata with sectoral information on technology use and exploit the variation at the demographic group level. Using instrumental variables estimation, we find that industrial robots significantly increase atypical employment share, mostly through involuntary part-time and involuntary fixed-term work. We find no robust effect of software and databases. We also show that the higher trade union coverage mitigates the robots’ impact on atypical employment, while employment protection legislation appears to play no role. Using historical decompositions, we attribute about 1-2 percentage points of atypical employment shares to rising robot exposure, especially in Central and Eastern European countries with low unionisation. |
| Keywords: | robots, automation, atypical employment, trade unions |
| JEL: | J23 J51 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp022024 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Medical University of Vienna, Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | ASCII proposes a revision of the EU directive on supply chain due diligence, the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. The directive is based on European values and is to be welcomed. ASCII suggests that the Directive should focus, where possible, on direct monitoring of suppliers rather than on bilateral relationships between buyers and sellers. The directive should be amended to allow the use of negative and positive lists of countries and suppliers. Such lists contain foreign suppliers that are prohibited (negative lists) or authorised (positive lists) to participate in EU supply chains. When contracting with companies on positive lists, EU importers do not have to carry out due diligence on the companies. They are prohibited from doing business with companies on negative lists. The Directive will continue to apply to non-listed companies. This reduces the overall cost of the regulation for EU importers, reduces the likelihood of unwanted side-effects and makes the instrument more effective, as non-compliance by a foreign supplier leads to delisting throughout the EU, not just with a single buyer. It would also increaseeffectiveness by reducing legal uncertainty and extending the scope of the regulation beyond EU-based production networks. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:002 |
| By: | Cirillo, Valeria; Divella, Marialuisa; Ferrulli, Eustachio; Greco, Lidia |
| Abstract: | Within the context of the green industrial policies debate, this paper seeks to examine the progress of policy implementation regarding the upskilling and reskilling of workers under the European Just Transition Fund (JTF) 2021-27. Specifically, it focuses on distinct regions in three countries: Italy, Spain, and Germany. Through a combination of desk research and qualitative analysis via interviews with key informants, the research aims at assessing the advancement of training and retraining interventions for workers in those regions and identifying any implementation deficiencies and critical challenges encountered by these initiatives. The paper thus aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on green industrial policies and their implications for just transition and workforce development. Although it is too early for a comprehensive assessment due to limited actions in this field based on JTF implementation so far, some relevant policy implications can be drawn. These refer in particular to the need of better integrating the active labor market policy interventions under examination with a more comprehensive regional development strategy, while taking account of regional specificities and actual workers' needs in such specific contexts. |
| Keywords: | Just transition, active labor market policies, workers' upskilling and reskilling, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:303040 |
| By: | NARAZANI Edlira (European Commission - JRC); RISCADO Sara; WEMANS Lara |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, two major disruptions – the Great Recession and the Covid sanitary crisis – hit the world economy and gave rise to a battery of government measures. In Portugal, after the fiscal consolidation efforts implemented to tackle the severe sovereign debt crisis that accompanied the Great Recession, some restrictive fiscal measures were reversed. Throughout and after the pandemic crisis, fiscal measures maintained their expansionary nature, with reinforcements to child benefits and income tax cuts. This paper quantifies the distributional and labour market impacts of policy changes implemented on the income tax system and on the child benefit in Portugal in 2022 and 2023. First-order effects of these measures, quantified using the EUROMOD microsimulation model, reveal that changes to the income tax schedule exhibit a regressive pattern, whereas those affecting the minimum untaxed income were more evenly distributed. In contrast, the child benefit reinforcements show a progressive impact. Employing EUROLAB, a behavioural labour supply and demand model, we find that labour supply responses are relatively modest, due to the small direct impacts of the measures on disposable income. Overall, labour supply, both in terms of hours of work and participation, reacts positively to the tax breaks but negatively to the reinforcement of the child benefit, with this negative reaction being concentrated on specific income and gender groups, such as single parents with children or families in lower income quintiles. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202406 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet); Maximilian Hess (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria); Stefan Thurner (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Santa Fe Institute) |
| Abstract: | The steel industry is a significant contributor to global CO2 emissions, accounting for 7% of emissions. The European steel industry aims to reduce emissions by transitioning towards electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which can produce steel from scrap, a crucial step towards a circular steel economy. This paper uses trade and business intelligence data to show that this shift necessitates a profound restructuring of global and European scrap trade and a significant expansion of the business ecosystem. We find that scrap imports in European countries with major EAF installations have steadily decreased since 2007, while global scrap trade has recently increased. Statistical modeling indicates that for every 1, 000 tonnes of EAF capacity installed, annual scrap imports increase by 550 tonnes and exports decrease by 1, 000 tonnes, suggesting increased competition for scrap metal as EAF capacity expands. Furthermore, each scrap company supports around 79, 000 tonnes of EAF-based steel production per year in the EU. Extrapolating current EAF expansion plans, we estimate that an additional 730 companies may be required, creating approximately 35, 000 jobs and generating USD 35 billion in turnover. This analysis suggests that scrap metal is likely to become a strategic resource, highlighting the need for a major restructuring of the industry’s supply networks and identifying growth opportunities for companies. |
| Keywords: | Electric Arc Furnaces, Circular Economy, Trade Networks, Ferrous Waste, Steel Industry, Supply Chain, European Steel |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:003 |
| By: | Léon-Gómez, Carlos R.; Teixidó, Jordi J.; Verde, Stefano F. |
| Abstract: | We study the local distortionary effects of notches in Spain’s CO2-based vehicle registration tax on the distribution of new car CO2 performance. These effects are the smoking gun of carmaker strategic behaviour and affect in turn tax revenue and CO2 emissions. Using model-level data on all car registrations in Spain 2010-2020, we apply the bunching approach to the three thresholds of the tax scheme: 120, 160, and 200 gCO2/km. We find that the tax notches strongly affected market outcomes, resulting in the sale of about 388, 000 more cars (overall) at or just below the thresholds compared to the respective counterfactuals without the thresholds. This translates into about €335 million of foregone tax revenue and only very limited extra abatement of CO2 emissions. Over 90-95% of all estimated bunching took place at the first threshold (120 gCO2/km). Over 60% of all estimated bunching took place before 2015. Bunching diminished over time, which reflects diminished effectiveness of the tax in both reducing CO2 emissions and generating revenue. Taking the interactions with both EU vehicle emission standards and similar CO2-related policies in other Member States into consideration is important for interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | CO2-based vehicle taxes, Notches, Bunching, Carmakers, Strategic behaviour, Emissions, Tax revenue, Policy interactions |
| JEL: | H23 H30 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122103 |
| By: | Anja Janischewski (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany); Katharina Bohnenberger (German Institute for Interdisciplinary Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, SOCIUM, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Matthias Kranke (Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS), University of Freiburg, Germany); Tobias Vogel (Department for Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Fakulty of Economy and Society, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany); Riwan Driouich (Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Spain); Tobias Froese (Chair for Corporate Sustainability, ESCP Business School, Germany); Stefanie Gerold (Institute of Philosophy and Social Science, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Germany); Raphael Kaufmann (ZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies, Germany); Lorenz Keyßer (Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland); Jannis Niethammer (ICLEI European Secretariat, Germany); Christopher Olk (Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany); Matthias Schmelzer (Norbert-Elias-Center for Transformation Design and Research, University of Flensburg, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Germany); Aslı Yürük (Urban Transformation and Global Change Laboratory (TURBA), Universitat Oberta Catalunya, Spain); Steffen Lange (Centre for Pluralist Economics, University of Siegen, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates to function properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasing evidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises, these growth dependencies pose serious societal challenges. In recent years, more and more researchers have thus tried to identify growth-dependent systems and develop policies to reduce their growth dependence. However, the concept of "growth dependence" still lacks a consistent definition and operationalization, which impedes more systematic empirical and theoretical research. This article proposes a simple but powerful framework for defining and operationalizing the concept of "growth dependence" across socio-economic systems. We provide a general definition consisting of four components that can be specified for different empirical cases: (1) the system under investigation, (2) the unit of measurement of growth, (3) the level of growth and (4) the relevant functions or properties of the system under investigation. According to our general definition, a socio-economic system is growth-dependent if it requires a long-term positive growth rate in terms of a unit of economic measurement to maintain all its functions or properties that are relevant within the chosen normative framework. To illustrate the usefulness of our scheme, we apply it to three areas at the heart of the existing literature on growth dependence: employment, social insurance systems and public finance. These case studies demonstrate that whether or not a system is growth-dependent hinges not only on the empirical properties of the system itself but also on the specification of the concept of growth dependence. Our framework enables coherent, robust and effective definitions and research questions, fostering comparability of findings across different cases and disciplines. Better research can lead to better policies for reducing growth dependence and thus achieving stable and sustainable economies. |
| Keywords: | growth dependence, growth independence, post-growth, green growth, degrowth, growth imperative |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep064 |
| By: | Lara Coulier; Alessio Reghezza |
| Abstract: | We match granular supervisory and credit register data to assess the implications of banks' exposure to interest rate risk on the monetary policy transmission to bank lending supply in the euro area. We exploit the largest and swiftest increase in interest rates since the creation of the euro and find that banks with a higher exposure to interest rate risk, i.e., with a larger duration gap after accounting for hedging, curtailed corporate lending more than their peers. Ceteris paribus, greater interest rate risk entails closer supervisory scrutiny and potential capital surcharges in the short term, and lower expected profitability and capital accumulation in the medium to long term. We then proceed to dissect banks' credit allocation and find that banks with higher net duration reshuffled their loan portfolio away from long-term loans in an attempt to limit the increase in interest rate risk and targeted their lending contraction to small and micro firms. Firms exposed to banks with a larger exposure to interest rate risk were unable to fully rebalance their borrowing needs with other lenders, thus experiencing a relatively larger decrease in total borrowing during the monetary tightening episode. |
| Keywords: | interest rate risk, duration gap, bank lending channel, financial stability |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1202 |
| By: | Jüppner, Marcus; Martin, Anika; Radke-Arden, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements are a key component on the road towards a carbonneutral economy. We identify the development of energy efficiency in the data and show that in recent decades it has increased at the aggregate level. At the sectoral level, however, the development in energy efficiency was highly heterogenous. We, then, analyse the effects of exogenous improvements in energy saving technology by means of Environmental Multi-Sector Model EMuSe. According to the model, sustained exogenous gains in energy saving technology increase output while, at the same time, reduce emissions energy use and energy intensity. Thereby, they attenuate the model-implied negative co-movement of output and emissions that results from the introduction or an intensified increase of an emission price schedule. However, if energy efficiency evolves as during the last decades and the emission price follows the currently intended schedule in the national and EU-wide emissions trading system, the model predicts that the emissions reduction by 2030 set by the German Federal Climate Change Act cannot be met. It additionally requires a higher emission price or larger (exogenous) energy efficiency gains. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:303049 |
| By: | Francesco D'Alessandro (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Enrico Santarelli (, Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy - Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen, Germany); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands – IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the insights of the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) with Schumpeter's idea that innovative entrepreneurs creatively apply available local knowledge, possibly mediated by Marshallian, Jacobian and Porter spillovers. In more detail, in this study we assess the degree of pervasiveness and the level of opportunities brought about by AI technologies by testing the possible correlation between the regional AI knowledge stock and the number of new innovative ventures (that is startups patenting in any technological field in the year of their foundation). Empirically, by focusing on 287 Nuts-2 European regions, we test whether the local AI stock of knowledge exerts an enabling role in fostering innovative entry within AI-related local industries (AI technologies as focused enablers) and within non AI-related local industries, as well (AI technologies as generalised enablers). Results from Negative Binomial fixed-effect and Poisson fixed-effect regressions (controlled for a variety of concurrent drivers of entrepreneurship) reveal that the local AI knowledge stock does promote the spread of innovative startups, so supporting both the KSTE+I approach and the enabling role of AI technologies; however, this relationship is confirmed only with regard to the sole high-tech/AI-related industries. |
| Keywords: | KSTE+I, Artificial Intelligence, innovative entry, enabling technologies |
| JEL: | O33 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0039 |
| By: | Suzanne J Konzelmann |
| Abstract: | There is a strong resonance between events of the inter-war years and today. These include a questioning of laissez-faire capitalism and austerity, and the rise of so-called “populist” parties on both the left and right. Clara Mattei’s (2022) The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism thus makes an interesting contribution, by locating the key argument of her book in the febrile period of European history between the wars. According to Mattei, the First World War disrupted the pre-war capitalist system to such an extent that it created a crisis of capitalism, itself. As a result, following the end of hostilities, there was a conscious effort to restore the pre-war “capital order” by means of a technocratic “austerity strategy”; and this was strongly linked to the rise of fascism. We argue that the inter-relationship between capitalism, austerity and fascism during the 1920s and 1930s was rather more complex, and that to make sense of this, it is necessary to broaden the focus beyond Italy and Great Britain and the international financial conferences at Brussels (1920) and Genoa (1922). Otherwise, we risk misunderstanding and mis-diagnosing our own times, as those inter-war politicians, financiers and economists discovered to their cost. We therefore also include Germany and the United States and base our analysis on the events of the entire inter-war period. |
| Keywords: | Laissez-faire capitalism, fascism, austerity, insecurity cycle, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Polanyi |
| JEL: | N12 N14 P1 P30 P52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp540 |
| By: | Chanel, Olivier; Prati, Alberto; Raux, Morgan |
| Abstract: | We provide an estimate of the environmental impact of the recruitment system in the economics profession, known as the “international job market for economists”. Each year, most graduating PhDs seeking jobs in academia, government, or companies participate in this job market. The market follows a standardized process, where candidates are pre-screened in a short interview which takes place at an annual meeting in Europe or in the United States. Most interviews are arranged via a non-profit online platform, econjobmarket.org, which kindly agreed to share its anonymized data with us. Using this dataset, we estimate the individual environmental impact of 1057 candidates and one hundred recruitment committees who attended the EEA and AEA meetings in December 2019 and January 2020. We calculate that this pre-screening system generated the equivalent of about 4800 tons of avoidable CO2-eq and a comprehensive economic cost over €4.4 million. We contrast this overall assessment against three counterfactual scenarios: an alternative in-person system, a hybrid system (where videoconference is used for some candidates) and a fully online system (as it happened in 2020–21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, the study can offer useful information to shape future recruitment standards in a more sustainable way. |
| Keywords: | carbon footprint; comprehensive economic cost; environmental impact; international job market; job market for economists |
| JEL: | A11 J44 Q51 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116463 |
| By: | Lambert, Claudia; Larkou, Chloe; Pancaro, Cosimo; Pellicani, Antonella; Sintonen, Meri |
| Abstract: | By applying a structural demand model to unique consumer-level survey data from the euro area, we assess how different CBDC design options, combined with individual (revealed) preferences, influence the potential demand for a digital euro. Estimating the demand for a digital euro, we find that if it were unconstrained, it could range, in steady state, between 3-28% of household liquid assets or €0.12 - €1.11 trillion, depending on whether consumers would perceive the digital euro to be more cash-like or deposit-like. With an illustrative €3, 000 holding limit per person, it could instead range between 2-9% or €0.10 -€0.38 trillion. Privacy, automatic funding, and instant settlement raise its potential demand. JEL Classification: E41, E50, E58 |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency, demand estimation, design attributes, structural model |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242980 |
| By: | GAVIGAN James (European Commission - JRC); FAKO Peter (European Commission - JRC); COMPANO Ramon (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing transformation of the automotive sector is in part driven by factors such as the unrelenting onslaught of electric/hybrid powertrain technologies, in-vehicle and networked software applications, rising demand for electric vehicles, and the emergence of new entrants like Tesla and others notably in China. The response of automotive firms to these challenges includes, inter alia, Open Innovation (OI) tools and strategies of which Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) is one element. CVC investments by large automotive companies are globally spread, but there is a clear concentration of these investments in the US, particularly in California. The vast majority of CVC investments in startups are made in conjunction with other co-investors, reflecting the high-risk nature of the innovative technologies being developed. Newcomers to the automotive industry, such as Tesla and BYD, are primarily beneficiaries of venture capital financing, including corporate VC, rather than themselves engaging in venture financing. Despite a drop in CVC in 2023, the rising trend in automotive CVC may return over the medium to long term, driven by increasing startup activity in automotive-relevant areas. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:202402 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Klaus Friesenbichler (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)); Julian Hinz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Hendrik Mahlkow (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | On 12 June, the European Commission announced provisional countervailing tariffs of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China. This paper uses a large-scale trade model (KITE) to assess the impact of the tariffs, showing that while short-term effects may be larger, long-term effects are likely to be moderate. BEV imports from China are projected to fall by 42%, with limited impacts on EU car exports. This policy brief also analyzes potential retaliatory measures from China, including tariffs on EU pork exports, and highlights the need for careful negotiation to avoid escalation. |
| Keywords: | BEVs, Trade Policy, Countervailing Tariffs, EU-China Relations, Retaliatory Measures, KITE Model |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:004 |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Viktrória Döme; Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nadya Heger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Jan Muś; Magdolna Sass; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Andrea Szalavetz; Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy, technological development, Central Eastern Europe, convergence |
| JEL: | O14 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:476 |
| By: | Klebaner, Samuel |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to demonstrate that the “Corporate Welfare” policies are embedded in a complex, dynamic and unstable mode of regulation. Based on qualitative and quantitative evidences from France since the 2008 financial crisis, we identify the five canonical institutional forms derived from the Régulation Theory that are coherent with industrial policies in favour of corporation without any counterparts. We consider that the deindustrialisation, the wage moderation, the fragmentation of national value chains is at the beginning of a race to the bottom of the public policy to compensate the profit loss. Behind the transfer of funds, we show that there is also a transfer of power to corporations, especially on the social welfare system. Finally, we will consider that this system is compatible as long as public debt creditors accepts to finance the difference between the quick transfers to corporations and the slow reduction of public expenditures, and second, that household have political and financial capacity to support this system. |
| Keywords: | Régulation ; Corporate welfare ; France |
| JEL: | B52 L53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121965 |
| By: | Bruno Lefevre; Louis Wiart |
| Abstract: | Alibaba and Amazon now dominate global e-commerce. Although their strategies partly differ, they are both territorializing their activities around sorting hubs and warehouses. This often creates tensions in local territories. In our research exploring the effects of these strategies, conducted in France and Belgium from 2019 to 2022, we hypothesized that the impacts of the digital industrialization of local and global trade go beyond sales and logistics; the concentration of these markets in the hands of two ultra-dominant actors reflects unequal power relations that are reconfiguring governance, public decision-making, and democracy, notably by obscuring the major challenges that territories face. |
| Keywords: | Economie créative; Alibaba; Amazon; E-commerce; Commerce électronique; Territoire; Gouvernance |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/378019 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Pulak Ghosh; Jiasun Li; Qihong Ruan |
| Abstract: | Using proprietary data from the predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India together with the country's Household Inflation Expectations Survey, we document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. Higher inflation expectations are also associated with more new investors in cryptocurrencies. We investigate investment heterogeneity in multiple dimensions, and find the effect to be concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) trading. The results are robust after controlling for speculative demand captured by surveys of investors' expected cryptocurrency returns, and admit causal interpretations as confirmed using multiple instrumental variables. Our findings provide direct evidence that households already adopt cryptocurrencies for inflation hedging, which in turn rationalizes their high adoption in developing countries without a globally dominant currency. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32945 |
| By: | Anton Pichler; Jan Hurt; Tobias Reisch; Johannes Stangl; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07981 |
| By: | Kristy Jansen; Hyun Song Shin; Goetz von Peter |
| Abstract: | How do exchange rates affect the asset allocation of bond portfolio investors? Using detailed security-level holdings, we find that euro area-based investors systematically shed sovereign bonds as the dollar strengthens, confirming the role of the dollar as a global risk factor even for euro-based investors. More distinctively, they also shed local currency bonds when the euro strengthens, due to currency mismatches on their own balance sheets. There is no such effect for foreign currency bonds of the same sovereign issuers. These findings are consistent with a Value-at-Risk portfolio choice model that brings out separate roles for local, foreign and reference currencies. |
| Keywords: | Currency mismatch, balance sheet effects, emerging markets, exchange rates, institutional investors, sovereign bonds |
| JEL: | F31 G11 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1210 |
| By: | A. David Redish; Henri Scott Chastain; Carlisle Ford Runge; Brian M. Sweis; Scott E. Allen; Antara Haldar |
| Abstract: | Current theories of decision making suggest that the neural circuits in mammalian brains (including humans) computationally combine representations of the past (memory), present (perception), and future (agentic goals) to take actions that achieve the needs of the agent. How information is represented within those neural circuits changes what computations are available to that system which changes how agents interact with their world to take those actions. We argue that the computational neuroscience of decision making provides a new microeconomic framework (neuroeconomics) that offers new opportunities to construct policies that interact with those decision-making systems to improve outcomes. After laying out the computational processes underlying decision making in mammalian brains, we present four applications of this logic with policy consequences: (1) contingency management as a treatment for addiction, (2) precommitment and the sensitivity to sunk costs, (3) media consequences for changes in housing prices after a disaster, and (4) how social interactions underlie the success (and failure) of microfinance institutions. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07373 |