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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Michal Marencak; Giang Nghiem |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for the euro area. It leverages the unique design of the Consumer Expectations Survey in Europe to directly infer it from the Euler equation. Our final estimates range between 0.7 and 0.8 for the euro area as a whole, which are higher than those for the US. We also observe economically sizeable heterogeneity across the member states, and over time. Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands have lower elasticity compared to France, Spain, and Italy. The implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | inflation, expectations, consumption, intertemporal elasticity of substitution, Euler equation, Consumer Expectations Survey |
| JEL: | D12 D15 D84 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-56 |
| By: | Gagliardi, Nicola; Grinza, Elena; Rycx, François |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of rising temperatures on firm productivity using longitudinal firm-level balance-sheet data from private sector firms in 14 European countries, combined with detailed weather data, including temperature. We begin by estimating firms' total factor productivity (TFP) using control-function techniques. We then apply multiple-way fixed-effects regressions to assess how higher temperature anomalies affect firm productivity - measured via TFP, labor productivity, and capital productivity. Our findings reveal that global warming significantly and negatively impacts firms' TFP, with the most adverse effects occurring at higher anomaly levels. Labor productivity declines markedly as temperatures rise, while capital productivity remains unaffected - indicating that TFP is primarily affected through the labor input channel. Our moderating analyses show that firms involved in outdoor activities, such as agriculture and construction, are more adversely impacted by increased warming. Manufacturing, capital-intensive, and blue-collar-intensive firms, compatible with assembly-line production settings, also experience significant productivity declines. Geographically, the negative impact is most pronounced in temperate and mediterranean climate areas, calling for widespread adaptation solutions to climate change across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Global warming, Firm productivity, Total factor productivity (TFP), Semiparametric methods to estimate production functions, Longitudinal firm-level data |
| JEL: | D24 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1485 |
| By: | Despina Gavresi (DEM, University of Luxembourg); Anastasia Litina (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes population aging as a driving force of populism in a multilevel regression analysis of individuals living in European countries over the period 2002-2019. The focus is on the effect of ``aggregate'' population aging as opposed to individual aging. Populism expressed as populist attitudes is measured with individual-level data of nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We use data on voting for populist parties, political trust, and attitudes towards immigration. Our findings suggest an association of population aging with a declining electoral turnout, a higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and a rise in anti-immigrant hostility. These effects are observed across both young and elderly voters. |
| Keywords: | Population Aging, Populist Voting, Immigrant Attitudes, Trust |
| JEL: | D72 J10 P00 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2024_07 |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey; Domenico Moramarco; Vito Peragine |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a unified framework to measure inequality and social welfare in the case in which both inequalities between groups and inequalities within groups matter, but priority is recognized to the former. This novel approach can be applied to a variety of contexts, including the analysis of inequalities of opportunity, ethnic discrimination and gender disparities. The empirical part of the paper analyzes two relevant cases: (i) the evolution of income inequality and ethnic discrimination in the United States during the period 1970-2014; (ii) the comparison of four European countries - Italy, Spain, France and Germany - in terms of inequality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; social welfare; horizontal inequalities; inequality of opportunity; ethnic discrimination |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/377703 |
| By: | Haipeter, Thomas; Rosenbohm, Sophie |
| Abstract: | Decentralisation of collective bargaining takes place in different forms: wild decentralisation and organised decentralisation. Organised decentralisation takes two forms: derogations and through the transfer of regulatory competences to the workplace level entailing a shift in responsibilities from the collective bargaining arena to works councils and codetermination. The relevance of these forms differs significantly between sectors in Germany as shown by the examples of the metalworking industry and the retail sector. Wild decentralisation poses a fundamental threat to the German system of collective bargaining. Organised decentralisation demands for a new and more active division of work between trade unions and works councils. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iaqrep:301589 |
| By: | Froolik, Alderd J. (Quest Sales & Marketing Automations BV) |
| Abstract: | This research study focuses on investigating the effectiveness of AI powered email automation in enhancing customer retention, increasing sales, and improving customer satisfaction. Email automation has emerged as a powerful marketing tool, allowing businesses to automate and personalize their email communication with customers. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of implementing email automation on the real live Shopify webshop PeponiXL.nl which is opening up webshops in different countries (Portugal, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Spain, France and Germany). The boundary for this expansion is the language barrier for each country the webshop is expanding to. Due to the lack of multilingual personnel, the rising costs, and the declining margins the study will focus on possibilities of a Large Language Model (ChatGPT) to overcome these issues. The hypotheses are that ChatGPT will not only speed up the replies of emails but also provide answers within the guidelines of the webshop and maintaining the branding in each country, developing global awareness and brand at scale without putting additional stress on the workforce. |
| Date: | 2024–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uzsaf |
| By: | Koski, Heli |
| Abstract: | Abstract The data on Finnish patent applications filed at the European Patent Office and the United States Patent and Trademark Office between 2011 and 2021 indicate that foreign inventors and international collaboration have been crucial to Finland’s technological development. Throughout the 2010s, Finnish patent applications have included inventors from 68 different countries, and the share of foreign inventors has steadily increased over this period. In 2021, 60 percent of the patent applications filed involved foreign inventors, with over one-fifth featuring collaboration between both Finnish and foreign inventors. The United States has been Finland’s most important innovation partner, while Germany, Sweden, and China have also played significant roles in the development of patented ideas. When analyzed by technology sector, foreign and internationally based inventors are particularly prominent in ICT-related patent applications. Immigrant inventors contributed to more than one-fifth of ICT patent filings during the review period. In other technology sectors, the involvement of immigrant inventors has also grown, with their share of USPTO patent applications rising from 9 percent to 17 percent, and from 18 percent to 23 percent in EPO applications. |
| Keywords: | Innovations, Patents, Innovation collaboration, Inventors, Immigration |
| JEL: | D23 F22 J61 O3 |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:138 |
| By: | Mircea Muresan (Member of the Romanian Academy of Scientists, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades, the competence-based learning system has spread in Europe, aiming to develop young people's skills to help them perform in a knowledge-based economy (Chapman and Aspin 2013). This system ensures labor force mobility and transparency in the European space and at an intersectorial level. As a regional policy, European education, including higher education, was reformed based on the Lisbon Strategy and the Bologna Process (EMD 1999), and in Romania, the European recommendations regarding the new frameworks of qualifications in higher education were taken over, achieving the connection at EQF . From another perspective, employing companies validate the importance of skills for the Romanian labor market and the level of satisfaction of employers with the skills of higher education graduates. As a typology, employers consider transversal skills more important than professional ones, both at a conceptual level and as a degree of acquisition following the completion of higher education. In this article, competence is seen as an outcome, reflecting the requirements of a job, according to Tate (1995) and Rowe (1995). In other words, competence is investigated, denoting what a person knows and is able to do to perform the tasks required by a given occupation (Winterton 2009). Since 2005, a process of substantiating study programs on competencies and learning outcomes has been developed in Romania. In the framework of the research, I sought the answer to the question of how the importance of transversal skills of candidates is perceived on the labor market, their type, and the way in which they translate the knowledge and skills that a graduate of the Romanian education system must have. We also explored the most common ways of integrating transversal skills into the university curriculum and their impact on students’ personal and professional development. |
| Keywords: | quality education, skills development, graduate, social inclusion, economic competitiveness |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0382 |
| By: | José Garrido (Concordia University [Montreal], Chaire DIALog); Xavier Milhaud (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CNP - Chaire DIALog); Anani Olympio (CNP Assurances); Max Popp (EcoAct France) |
| Abstract: | This book presents an introduction for beginners to climate science from an insurance perspective. The focus is on the measurement of climate change and of its impact on policyholders and their insurers. Climate change presents several challenges for society, endangering food supply and water security, affecting human health, and threatening transportation systems (Dundon et al., 2016) as well as property (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). It also affects the economy (Pryor, 2017). The consequences of this environmental change are expected to be deep and far-reaching, particularly in insurance sectors such as agriculture, property-casualty, health and life. As a result, climate change can threaten the sustainability of insurance programs, in different ways. First, because the increase in total losses may require hikes in premiums and solvency capital. A precise quantitative assessment of this increase is not yet determined, but it is clear that both recent and future costs are a serious threat; according to Munich Re (2024), losses caused by natural disasters in 2023 reached US$ 250 bn, with US$ 95 bn of which being insured. Although no disasters of the magnitude of Hurricane Ian occurred in 2023, a fair share of the losses were associated with several severe storms occurred in the US and Europe. These related events are considered as evidence of the global warming trend, with a potential impact particularly on property and casualty insurance (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). In this particular insurance sector, Swiss Re (2021) forecasts increased frequency and severity of events due to climate change that will cost 30%-63% more in insured catastrophe losses by 2040. This cost increase could even reach 90%-120% in specific markets, such as China, the UK, France and Germany. Secondly, climate change puts into question some fundamental principles of insurance, such as risk insurability, pooling, diversification, and risk transfer. The literature discusses the possible outcomes and implications for the insurance industry (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). Other, more optimistic perspectives suggest that far from being the victim of climate change the insurance business could find in it an opportunity, through the development of new technical solutions (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). For now, climate change already has forced the strategic withdrawal of insurers in certain markets in the USA (California, 2023). The general objective of this book is to present an actuarial perspective on the study of climate change and its impact on the insurance industry. Actuaries are experts at measuring and managing risks. The DIALog Research Chair team regroups several members, both from industry and academia, with ample actuarial expertise. Hence it was natural for the DIALog team to tackle this project and explore the impact of climate change on the insurance industry, more particularly in health and life insurance. This study starts by exploring the need for a standardized method to measure climate change. This is crucial in order to compare different regions and periods in a standardised analysis. In recent years the actuarial community has developed actuarial climate indices to measure climate change in an factual, objective and consistent way. First, Chapter 1 reviews the recent scientific literature on the few actuarial climate indices that have been defined so far and extends the existing methodology to calculate an actuarial index for climate data in France. Then Chapter 2 describes how climate science can be used to link a physical climate risk to insurance costs. In particular it focuses on the impact of heat waves on excess mortality. A deterministic and a stochastic model are proposed to link the Heat Index to excess mortality. The chapter includes a frank discussion of the advantages and difficulties with the approach. Finally Chapter 3 further explores the link between extreme temperatures and excess mortality in France. A more technical exposure is used, in order to propose a new mortality forecasting model that includes explanatory terms capturing the correlation between temperature and mortality, as well as the effect of high temperature anomalies. |
| Abstract: | Ce livre présente une introduction pour non-initiés à la science du climat du point de vue de l'assurance. L'accent est mis sur la mesure du changement climatique et de son impact sur les assurés et leurs assureurs. Le changement climatique présente plusieurs défis pour la société, menaçant l'approvisionnement alimentaire et la sécurité de l'eau, affectant la santé humaine, et menaçant les systèmes de transport (Dundon et al., 2016) ainsi que les biens immobiliers (Warren-Myers et al., 2018; Miljkovic et al., 2018). Il affecte également l'économie (Pryor, 2017). Les conséquences de ce changement environnemental devraient être profondes et étendues, en particulier dans les secteurs de l'assurance tels que l'agriculture, les biens et responsabilités, la santé et la vie. Le changement climatique représente une menace pour la durabilité de certains programmes d'assurance, de différentes façons. Premièrement, parce que l'augmentation des pertes totales peut nécessiter des hausses de primes et de capital de solvabilité. Une évaluation quantitative précise de cette augmentation n'a pas encore été déterminée, mais il est clair que les coûts récents et futurs représentent une menace sérieuse ; selon Munich Re (2024), les pertes causées par des catastrophes naturelles en 2023 ont atteint 250 milliards de dollars, dont 95 milliards de dollars étaient assurés. Bien qu'aucune catastrophe de l'ampleur de l'ouragan Ian ne se soit pas produite en 2023, une part importante des pertes était associée à plusieurs tempêtes sévères survenues aux États-Unis et en Europe. Ces événements connexes sont considérés comme des preuves de la tendance au réchauffement climatique, avec un impact potentiel notamment sur l'assurance des biens et des responsabilités (Gupta and Venkataraman, 2024; Golnaraghi, 2021). Dans ce secteur particulier de l'assurance, Swiss Re (2021) prévoit une augmentation de la fréquence et de la gravité des événements due au changement climatique, qui coûterait 30% à 63% de plus en pertes assurées par catastrophes d'ici 2040. Cette augmentation des coûts pourrait même atteindre 90% à 120% dans certains marchés, tels que la Chine, le Royaume-Uni, la France et l'Allemagne. Deuxièmement, le changement climatique remet en question certains principes fondamentaux de l'assurance, tels que l'assurabilité des risques, la mutualisation, la diversification et le transfert des risques. La littérature discute des résultats et implications possibles pour l'industrie de l'assurance (Charpentier, 2008; Thistlethwaite and Wood, 2018; Courbage and Golnaraghi, 2022). D'autres perspectives, plus optimistes, suggèrent que loin d'être victime du changement climatique, le secteur de l'assurance pourrait y trouver une opportunité, grâce au développement de nouvelles solutions techniques (Rao and Li, 2023; Savitz and Dan Gavriletea, 2019; Wagner, 2022). Pour l'instant, le changement climatique a déjà forcé le retrait stratégique des assureurs de certains marchés aux États-Unis (California, 2023). L'objectif général de ce livre est de présenter une perspective actuarielle sur l'étude du changement climatique et son impact sur l'industrie de l'assurance. Les actuaires sont des experts dans la mesure et la gestion des risques. L'équipe de la Chaire de recherche DIALog regroupe plusieurs membres, à la fois de l'industrie et du milieu universitaire, possédant une expertise actuarielle. Il était donc naturel pour l'équipe DIALog de s'attaquer à ce projet et d'explorer l'impact du changement climatique sur l'industrie de l'assurance, plus particulièrement en assurance santé et en assurance vie. Cette étude commence par explorer la nécessité d'une méthode standardisée pour mesurer le changement climatique. Cela est crucial pour comparer différentes régions et périodes dans une analyse commune. Ces dernières années, la communauté actuarielle a développé des indices climatiques actuariels pour mesurer le changement climatique de manière factuelle, objective et cohérente. D'abord, le chapitre 1 passe en revue la littérature scientifique récente sur les quelques indices climatiques actuariels qui ont été définis jusqu'à présent, et étend la méthodologie existante pour calculer un indice actuariel basé sur les données climatiques en France. Ensuite, le chapitre 2 décrit comment la science du climat peut être utilisée pour lier un risque climatique physique aux coûts de l'assurance. En particulier, il se concentre sur l'impact des vagues de chaleur sur l'excès de mortalité. Un modèle déterministe et un modèle stochastique sont proposés pour lier l'indice de chaleur à la surmortalité. Le chapitre inclut une discussion des avantages et des difficultés de l'approche. Enfin, le chapitre 3 explore plus en détail le lien entre les températures extrêmes et la surmortalité en France. Une présentation plus technique est utilisée, afin de proposer un nouveau modèle de prévision de la mortalité incluant des termes explicatifs qui puissent capturer la corrélation entre la température et la mortalité, ainsi que l'effet des anomalies de température élevée. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Actuaries Climate Index™, European actuarial climate indices, physical climate risk, geographical grid, heat waves, excess mortality. |
| Date: | 2024–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684629 |
| By: | Giacomo Damioli (BETA, Université de Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France); Vincent Van Roy (Faculty of Business and Economics, KU Leuven, Belgium - Idea Consult, Belgium); Daniel Vertesy (International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, Switzerland – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands – IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative innovation with the potential to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. This study examines whether AI is initiating a technological revolution, signifying a new technological paradigm, using the perspective of evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a global dataset combining information on AI patenting activities and their applicants between 2000 and 2016, our analysis reveals that AI patenting has accelerated and substantially evolved in terms of its pervasiveness, with AI innovators shifting from the ICT core industries to non-ICT service industries over the investigated period. Moreover, there has been a decrease in concentration of innovation activities and a reshuffling in the innovative hierarchies, with innovative entries and young and smaller applicants driving this change. Finally, we find that AI technologies play a role in generating and accelerating further innovations (so revealing to be “enabling technologies”, a distinctive feature of GPTs). All these features have characterised the emergence of major technological paradigms in the past and suggest that AI technologies may indeed generate a paradigmatic shift. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Technological Paradigm, Structural Change, Patents |
| JEL: | O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0038 |
| By: | Kristína Gotthardová; Marta Kahancová |
| Abstract: | This report identifies and analyses the wage setting practices in Bulgaria, focusing on four specific sectors – construction, hospitality, urban transport, and waste management. General practices of wage setting are outlined in the context of wider global trends towards individualization and employer discretion. Evidence on the four sectors is summarised together with the most relevant trade unions and employer organization in each, with particular attention paid to low-paid jobs in the sector. Wage setting and collective bargaining in the four sectors are traced in detail, accounting for wage setting at several levels, including the statutory, municipal, sectoral, company, and individual level. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:69 |
| By: | Tomáš Slačík |
| Abstract: | This report revisits the growth and convergence performance of the 11 EU member states in Central, East and Southeast Europe (EU-CEE11) over the past few decades, examining the underlying drivers, structural changes and the outlook. The review aims to assess the sustainability of the current economic model and identify areas for economic policy to focus on boosting growth. The findings show that convergence has significantly slowed since the global financial crisis, with value added growth declining in virtually all industries. This slowdown is attributed to structural rather than cyclical factors, with total factor productivity (TFP) being the main driver as well as the primary culprit behind the deceleration. Since medium-term growth projections for the region are not optimistic, the EU-CEE11 countries must make substantial efforts to improve their economic models. Key areas to focus on include energy, underutilised labour and improving human capital. While still very competitive, the manufacturing sector needs to move towards higher value added activities. |
| Keywords: | growth, convergence, growth model, EU-CEE11 |
| JEL: | E61 F15 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:475 |
| By: | Pirovano, Mara; Azzone, Michele |
| Abstract: | We examine the issue of the appropriate selection of macroprudential instruments according to the vulnerabilities identified and the policymakers’ objectives using a version of the 3D DSGE model following Mendicino et al. (2020) and Hinterschweiger et al. (2021) calibrated for the euro area. We consider a broad set of macroprudential instruments, including broad and sectoral countercyclical capital requirements, LTV and LTI limits and assess their transmission channels as well as their effectiveness in mitigating rising broad and sectoral vulnerabilities. We find that sectoral instruments are most effective to increase bank resilience to sectoral risks, limiting spillover effects. LTI limits are superior to LTV limits in containing the growth of mortgage credit and household indebtedness. Finally, we find that macroprudential policy is better suited than monetary policy to address emerging real estate-related imbalances. JEL Classification: E44, E58, G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffer, DSGE, financial stability, macroprudential policy |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242979 |