nep-eur New Economics Papers
on Microeconomic European Issues
Issue of 2024‒06‒17
thirty-two papers chosen by
Hafiz Imtiaz Ahmad, Higher Colleges of Technology


  1. The role of between- and within-occupation differences in wage inequality trends in Europe (2002-2018) By ORFAO E VALE TABERNERO Guillermo; FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique; MALO Miguel Angel
  2. Transition to motherhood: The role of health By Simankova, Irina; Tauchmann, Harald
  3. Fachkräftesicherung durch Zuwanderung an die Hochschulen: Potenziale für ein Studium von mehr Personen aus dem Ausland By Geis-Thöne, Wido
  4. New Technologies, Migration and Labour Market Adjustment: An Intra-European Perspective By Antea Barišić; Mahdi Ghodsi; Michael Landesmann; Alireza Sabouniha; Robert Stehrer
  5. Assessing the impact of environmental factors on emergency healthcare quality: Implications for budget allocation By Marc Aliana; Diego Prior; Emili Tortosa-Ausina
  6. Exploring the Effect of Immigration on Consumer Prices in Spain By Marcel Smolka
  7. The potential for household photovoltaics in Germany By Rode, Johannes
  8. Is France on track for decarbonizing its residential sector? Assessing recent policy changes and the way forward. By Lucas Vivier; Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet
  9. Instruments of economic security By Conor McCaffrey; Niclas Poitiers
  10. Generative KI in Deutschland: Künstliche Intelligenz in Gesellschaft und Unternehmen By Büchel, Jan; Engler, Jan
  11. Phasing out fossil fuel in the residential sector: Should new gas boilers be banned ? By Célia Escribe; Lucas Vivier; Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Philippe Quirion
  12. The Dovish Turnaround: Germany’s Social Benefit Reform and Job Findings By Weber, Enzo
  13. The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle By Le Xu; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti
  14. Why Does Euro’s Survival Matter? Financial Integration in East Asia and European Union By Akira Kohsaka
  15. The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry By Hugo Morão
  16. Owner-occupied housing costs, policy communication, and inflation expectations By Wauters, Joris; Zekaite, Zivile; Garabedian, Garo
  17. Der Fachkräftemangel in Schleswig-Holstein: Entwicklungen und Perspektiven By Christensen, Björn; Klodt, Henning; Schrader, Klaus; Steglich, Frauke; Stehn, Jürgen
  18. Build carbon removal reserve to secure future of EU emissions trading By Rickels, Wilfried; Fridahl, Mathias; Rothenstein, Roland; Schenuit, Felix
  19. The efficiency scope of work from home: A multidimensional approach and the significance of real estate By Bachtal, Yassien Nico
  20. Better be private, shared, or pooled? Implications of three autonomous mobility scenarios in Lyon, France By Ouassim Manout; Azise-Oumar Diallo
  21. Welche Faktoren beeinflussen die Karriereambitionen von Menschen mit Behinderungen: Eine empirische Analyse auf Basis der IW-Beschäftigtenbefragung 2023 By Fulda, Carolin; Stettes, Oliver
  22. Transformation of the real estate and construction industry: empirical findings from Germany By Pfnür, Andreas; Wagner, Benjamin
  23. Sources of financing: Which ones are more effective in innovation–growth linkage? By Anabela Marques Santos; Michele Cincera; Giovanni Cerulli
  24. Toward a Holistic Approach to Central Bank Trust By Sandra Eickmeier; Luba Petersen
  25. Trade policy, industrial policy, and the economic security of the European Union By Chad P. Bown
  26. Water investment planning and financing By Helen Laubenstein; Xavier Leflaive
  27. The economics of water scarcity By Xavier Leflaive
  28. An Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Portugal By Hugo Morão
  29. Trade effects of sustainability standards – a review of literature By SCHAEFER K. Aleks; NES Kjersti
  30. Incentive-Compatible Unemployment Reinsurance for the Euro Area By Alexander Karaivanov; Benoit Mojon; Luiz Pereira da Silva; Albert Pierres Tejada; Robert Townsend
  31. Tale About Inflation Tails By Olesya V. Grishchenko; Laura Wilcox
  32. Global influence of inventions and technology sovereignty By Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth

  1. By: ORFAO E VALE TABERNERO Guillermo; FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique (European Commission - JRC); MALO Miguel Angel
    Abstract: This working paper presents a comparative analysis of the role played by occupational changes in recent wage inequality trends in six European countries between 2002 and 2018. Using the European Union Structure of Earnings Survey, the analysis shows two patterns in the share of wage inequality explained by between-occupation differentials: while the relative importance of between-occupation trends has grown in Finland and the UK, it has diminished in Spain, France, Poland and Romania. Although between-occupation differentials account for a great share of total wages’ variance, changes in the occupational structure (in particular, the patterns of job polarisation and upgrading widely discussed in the literature) have not driven recent wage inequality trends in Europe. Wage inequality, instead, has been mostly driven by changes in wage differentials within occupations. Finally, we found that occupations effectively account for the distribution of wages, yet their explanatory significance markedly declines at the highest wage tiers. This work contributes to a better understanding of how within- and between-occupation differences have influenced wage inequality trends in Europe. Consequently, our results add significant value to the debate about recent stratification theory, which has challenged the idea that occupations structure economic disparities and wage inequality as importantly as they once did.
    Keywords: Europe, jobs, occupational structure, occupations, wage inequality
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202401&r=
  2. By: Simankova, Irina; Tauchmann, Harald
    Abstract: The age at which women become mothers for the first time is ever increasing in many industrialized countries. Therefore, fertility determinants that might deteriorate with age, such as health, and their effect on reproductive patterns, should be given more attention. We explore the effect of the subjective general health of women of reproductive age on the conditional probability of entering motherhood. Based on estimating linear discrete-time hazard models using survey data from Germany, we do not find a homogeneous health effect on the probability of having a first child. However, allowing effect heterogeneity over the span of reproductive age reveals that the role of health is ambiguous. While good health is associated with a lower probability of entering motherhood at the beginning of the reproductive phase, the opposite holds for the late reproductive phase. This pattern is robust to employing different estimation methods (parametric, non-parametric), conditioning on socio-economic characteristics, and taking unobserved individual-level heterogeneity into account.
    Keywords: motherhood, fertility, discrete-time survival analysis, instrumental variables estimation
    JEL: C41 I19 J13
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:295728&r=
  3. By: Geis-Thöne, Wido
    Abstract: Vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels ist Deutschland in zunehmendem Maß auf die Zuwanderung von Fachkräften angewiesen, um Wachstum und Wohlstand zu sichern. Gleichzeitig ist das Potenzial an Personen, die über Qualifikationen verfügen, die einem beruflichen oder hochschulischen Abschluss in Deutschland entsprechen, und potenziell für einen Zuzug nach Deutschland gewonnen werden können, begrenzt. Daher muss auch die Ausbildung von Personen aus dem Ausland gestärkt werden, was zumindest kurzfristig vor allem an den Hochschulen möglich ist. Erwerben die zum Studium ins Land gekommenen Personen einen akademischen Abschluss und bleiben langfristig im Land, sind sie am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ähnlich erfolgreich wie Hochschulabsolventen aus dem Inland. Allerdings kommt es bei ihnen deutlich häufiger zu Studienabbrüchen. Auch kehren viele nach Abschluss ihres Studiums wieder in die Heimatländer zurück. Dennoch lebten 46 Prozent der in den Jahren 2006 bis 2012 zum Studium nach Deutschland gekommenen Drittstaatsangehörigen zehn Jahre später noch in Deutschland und die Tendenz ist steigend.
    Abstract: Against the backdrop of demographic change, Germany is increasingly dependent on skilled labour from abroad to secure growth and prosperity. At the same time, the potential of people with qualifications equivalent to a vocational or academic degree in Germany who could potentially be recruited to move here is limited. Therefore, education of people from abroad must also be strengthened, which, at least in the short term, is merely possible at universities. People who come to Germany to study, obtain an academic degree, and remain in the country for the long term are just as successful on the German labour market as university graduates from Germany. However, students from abroad are much more likely to drop out of university. Moreover, many return to their home countries after completing their studies. Nevertheless, 46 per cent of third-country nationals who came to Germany to study between 2006 and 2012 were still living in Germany ten years later, and the trend is rising.
    JEL: F22 I23 J21
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:294840&r=
  4. By: Antea Barišić; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: In this note, we study the relationship between the use of new technologies (e.g. robots and various ICT assets), labour demand and migration patterns. The adoption of new technologies might change the demand for labour in various ways, which in turn will have an impact on skill composition and wage levels of different types of workers. We report the main results from a study that first analyses the impact of robot adoption on wages by sector and skills. Second, we study the impact of robot adoption in manufacturing industries on the attraction of migrants while controlling for other factors in the labour demand function. This is followed by an analysis of push and pull factors of bilateral migration that focuses on the impact of relative automation gaps across countries. Finally, using the OeNB Euro Survey, we examine determinants of the intention to migrate and the role of income differentials between the countries of origin and destination.
    Keywords: Migration, migrant jobs, wages, employment, novel technologies, adoption of robots, digitalisation, European labour markets, Central Eastern European countries
    JEL: F22 F66 J61 J24 J20 O33
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:77&r=
  5. By: Marc Aliana (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Diego Prior (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: Evaluating the quality of emergency departments in hospitals is crucial for optimizing healthcare and allocating resources effectively. Existing metrics predominantly focus on internal variables (e.g., bed occupancy or time to treatment), neglecting external environmental factors, beyond their control. In response, the contributions of this paper are fourfold. First, we introduce a novel Quality Composite Indicator (QCI) for benchmarking emergency departments quality, considering the specific impact of demographic, socio-economic, patientspecific, and behavioral factors. This metric minimizes the influence of outliers, facilitating a comparison among emergency departments and enabling the identification of top performers based on quality indicators. Second, our study, conducted across 85 health trusts, reveals that emergency departments with higher population density, migration, average income, and deprived households tend to exhibit lower service quality. Moreover, critical patient conditions upon arrival and higher attendance rates exert additional negative influences, while higher obesity rates show a positive correlation with the quality of urgent healthcare services. Third, our analysis highlights differences in how environmental factors (e.g., age, education, or unemployment) affect overall hospital performance versus specialized units like emergency departments. These results suggest that the factors influencing emergency department performance may differ from those affecting broader healthcare institutions. Fourth, we examined the distribution of health budget funds and uncovered significant regional disparities in healthcare quality, contradicting the goal of nationwide uniformity. Furthermore, our study highlights the integration of emergency care funding with general hospital resources in the allocation model, despite being impacted differently by external factors.
    Keywords: Budget allocation, emergency department, environmental factors, health policy, quality composite indicator
    JEL: C43 I11 I18
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2024/04&r=
  6. By: Marcel Smolka
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of immigration on consumer prices in Spain between 1997 and 2013. Using variation across provinces, we first document a positive correlation between consumer prices and the share of migrants in the population. However, controlling for regional supply and demand shocks, and addressing endogeneity through an instrumental variables approach, we show that immigration has actually reduced consumer prices in Spain. An increase in the share of migrants by 10 percentage points reduces (CPI-weighted) consumer prices by approx. 1.25 percent. We show that the effect materializes around the years of the 2008 financial crisis, and that it is concentrated among non-tradable goods and services. Focusing on individual products, we find that some of those products that rely most heavily on migrant labor have been subject to considerable price reductions, while we find no such effects for those products that make intensive use of native labor. Finally, we find that it is immigration from outside Western Europe that led to a reduction in consumer prices, while the effect of immigration from Western Europe is zero. Overall, our results paint a complex picture of the effects of immigration on consumer prices. They support the idea that immigration can reduce consumer prices through both supply-side and demand-side channels.
    Keywords: immigration, consumer prices, Spain
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11097&r=
  7. By: Rode, Johannes
    Abstract: This study describes the regional diffusion of household photovoltaic systems in Germany. By the end of 2023, one in eight residential buildings was equipped with such a rooftop solar system. Germany needs to continue accelerating the increase in installed capacity to meet the climate targets. This is important because, among other things, household photovoltaics (PV) generate electricity on site and households can consume it right away, easing the load on the power grid. However, not all regions are equally suitable for PV. Global radiation determines how much electricity a PV system can generate. Considering the regional global radiation, the following regions currently hold great potential for household PV: Bremen, Hamburg, the Saarland, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the region around Dresden, Schleswig-Holstein, the regions around Lüneburg and Trier, parts of Upper Bavaria, Thuringia and southern Hessen. Information offerings and advertising campaigns by suppliers of PV can be particularly promising to speed up diffusion in these regions.
    Date: 2024–04–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:144789&r=
  8. By: Lucas Vivier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)
    Abstract: This study assesses the long-term cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of various energy efficiency policies to decarbonize the French residential sector. It does so using Res-IRF 4.0, a significantly enhanced version of a behaviorally- and technologically-rich model of residential energy demand in France. Our analysis reveals that deep decarbonization targets cannot be achieved with current policies. However, we demonstrate that the progressive implementation of new mitigation policies generates net socio-economic benefits. In particular, newly implemented direct subsidies that direct support toward low-income households and deep renovation outperform precedent attempts. Mandatory renovation for privately rented dwelling and carbon tax, plays a significant role in enhancing socio-economic balance. Finally, we illustrate that banning the adoption of new natural-gas boilers will significantly accelerate the transition to low-carbon fuels with social benefits outweighing additional costs. Our research highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach to reach climate and social objectives. Overall, by incorporating policy frictions in bottom-up modelling, we provide more plausible long-term policy assessments.
    Keywords: climate change mitigation, energy efficiency, residential sector, building stock models, ex-ante policy assessment, applied policy analysis
    Date: 2024–01–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04510798&r=
  9. By: Conor McCaffrey; Niclas Poitiers
    Abstract: The challenge of improving European economic security has grown in importance, with various relevant policy measures introduced at EU level
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_10000&r=
  10. By: Büchel, Jan; Engler, Jan
    Abstract: Generative KI sorgte in jüngster Vergangenheit für großes Aufsehen. Grund ist, dass generative KI-Anwendungen selbstständig Inhalte wie Texte, Bilder, Programmiercodes oder Videos generieren können, die oft nur schwer von menschlich erstellten Inhalten zu unterscheiden sind. Sinnbildlich für generative KI steht dabei in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung oft noch die spezifische Anwendung ChatGPT, wie eine Analyse der Internetsuchanfragen und Zeitungsartikel in Deutschland zeigt. Davon profitiert allerdings auch das generelle Interesse an KI nachhaltig. Eine Auswertung von Online-Stellenanzeigen zeigt dagegen, dass Unternehmen nicht nur Interesse an generativer KI zeigen, sondern immer häufiger konkrete Anwendungsfälle in ihren Unternehmen identifizieren und dafür entsprechende Kompetenzen suchen. Dabei nimmt ChatGPT in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2023 ebenfalls eine entscheidende Rolle ein und prägte das Kompetenzprofil vieler Stellenanzeigen. Allerdingslösen sich die Unternehmensbedarfe im zweiten Halbjahr zunehmend von diesem Fokus. Stattdessen nehmen Unternehmen weitere Anwendungen oder Einsatzbereiche sowie die zugrundeliegenden Modelle der generativen KI stärker in den Blick. Sie möchten eigene Anwendungen entwickeln, die auf die jeweiligen Bedarfe und Geschäftsmodelle der Unternehmen abgestimmt sind. Nichtsdestotrotz kommt ChatGPT eine innovationsreibende Wirkung zu, die diese Entwicklung begünstigt hat. Es zeigt sich etwa die Tendenz, dass gerade große Unternehmen personalisierte geschlossene Lösungen entwickeln möchten, in denen Daten das Unternehmensnetzwerk nicht verlassen. Es könnte ein Indiz dafür sein, dass sich Unternehmen in Deutschland verstärkt mit den Chancen und insbesondere auch den Kosten und Risiken beschäftigt haben, die mit generativer KI einhergehen. Denn der Einsatz von generativer KI wirft urheberrechtliche, haftungsrechtliche und datenschutzrechtliche Fragen auf, die teilweise noch nicht abschließend geklärt sind. Ebenso sind die Auswirkungen des kürzlich verabschiedeten AI Acts noch weitestgehend ungeklärt. Regional betrachtet, sind die Unternehmensbedarfe in den südwestlichen Städten Deutschlands sowie in Berlin und dem angrenzenden Umland besonders hoch. Ähnliche Clusterwirkungen sind in den Regionen um München, Stuttgart, Karlsruhe und Heidelberg sowie um Köln und Bonn erkennbar. Gerade Unternehmen aus dem Technologiebereich und Fahrzeugbau sowie Forschungseinrichtungen schreiben dort viele Stellenanzeigen zu generativer KI aus. In Berlin und München treiben ebenfalls viele KI-Start-ups die Bedarfe zu generativer KI.
    Abstract: Generative AI has recently caused quite a stir. The reason is that generative AI applications can independently generate content such as texts, images, programming codes or videos that are often difficult to distinguish from human-generated content. In the public perception, the specific application ChatGPT often symbolises generative AI, as an analysis of internet search queries and newspaper articles in Germany shows. However, the general interest in AI also benefits from this in the long term. An analysis of online job advertisements, on the other hand, shows that companies are not only showing interest in generative AI, but are increasingly identifying specific use cases in their companies and looking for the relevant skills. ChatGPT also played a decisive role in the first half of 2023 and characterised the skills profile of many job advertisements. However, in the second half of the year, companies are increasingly moving away from this focus. Instead, companies are taking a closer look at other applications or fields of application and the underlying models of generative AI. They want to develop their own applications that are customised to the respective needs and business models of the companies. Nevertheless, ChatGPT has had an innovation-driving effect that has favoured this development. For example, there is a tendency for large companies in particular to want to develop personalised closed solutions in which data does not leave the company network. This could be an indication that companies in Germany have increasingly focussed on the opportunities and, in particular, the costs and risks associated with generative AI. The reason is that the use of generative AI raises copyright, liability and data protection issues, some of which have not yet been conclusively clarified. The effects of the recently passed AI Act are also still largely unclear. From a regional perspective, company requirements are particularly high in the south-western cities of Germany as well as in Berlin and the neighbouring areas. Similar cluster effects are recognisable in the regions around Munich, Stuttgart, Karlsruhe and Heidelberg as well as Cologne and Bonn. Companies from the technology and vehicle construction sectors in particular, as well as research institutions, advertise many job vacancies relating to generative AI. In Berlin and Munich, many AI start-ups are also driving demand for generative AI.
    JEL: C45 C55 J24 O33
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:294841&r=
  11. By: Célia Escribe (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lucas Vivier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted au- thorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the instal- lation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we assess this measure by simulating 3, 072 scenarios covering major uncertainties in a framework that includes both real- istic policy response and key interactions between the residential and energy sectors. Taking France as a case study, we demonstrate that the ban is critical to meet car- bon neutrality. Despite costly investments in heating system, the ban leads to higher cost-effectiveness across uncertainties, by saving additional flexibility capacity in the energy system. We finally illustrate how a well-designed subsidy program is instrumen- tal in mitigating horizontal and vertical inequalities that may arise from the policy's implementation.
    Keywords: climate change mitigation, fossil fuel ban, residential sector, energy mix, policy assessment
    Date: 2024–04–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04538870&r=
  12. By: Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)
    Abstract: "On the labour markets, recent decades were characterised by structural supply-side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyse the short-run consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by four percent and the subsequent benefit reform by almost six percent in the first year. Other factors played a still larger role for the recent weakening of job findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    JEL: J20 J64
    Date: 2024–05–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:20247&r=
  13. By: Le Xu; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti
    Abstract: We assemble a novel firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. These costs alter the incentives to scale up production and to replace existing with new suppliers. Both forces are critical to replicating the observed cyclicality in the adoption and termination rates at the producer and aggregate levels. Sufficiently high convexity in management relative to adjustment costs is required to replicate the observed decrease in the procyclicality of termination of suppliers with the size of producers. The optimal policy entails subsidies to management and adjustment costs.
    Keywords: management and adjustment costs, adoption and termination of suppliers, business cycles
    JEL: E32 L14 L24
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-33&r=
  14. By: Akira Kohsaka (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: A breakup of Euro Zone appeared likely in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), while EU has long been model regional integration to East Asia. Recognizing different political-economic contexts between East Asia and EU, what can we learn from the experiences of Euro Zone so far? This paper tries to answer the question by examining regional financial integration in two regions in view of international macroeconomics. Financial globalization since the 1990s plays the key role there. We can summarize our observations as follows:East Asia’s fundamental strength shown throughout GFC implies weak motivation to promote further regional financial integration toward a monetary/fiscal union as EU. The global sudden stop of capital inflow by GFC seriously damaged vulnerable links in Euro Zone, although crisis-driven policy innovations seem to strengthen its macro-financial policy framework. As to the future role of Euro Zone, at issue is the volatility intrinsic to the global financial market, which would aggravate the asymmetry across currencies, potentially harming resource allocation and growth. Post-Bretton Woods flexible exchange rates could not wipe away, but magnify this asymmetry (i.e. US dollar dominance). The Euro and Euro Zone could challenge this fundamental flaw of the present international monetary system.
    Keywords: regional integration, East Asia, Euro Zone, financial globalization
    JEL: E5 F3 F41 G15 O11 O16 P51
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e001&r=
  15. By: Hugo Morão
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of unexpected changes in European carbon policy on Portugal’s energy sector, focusing on effects on sales, output prices, and labor market dynamics. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the study finds that news of tighter carbon regulations leads to a significant short-term increase in domestic sales. Output prices rise in both home and foreign markets, with a larger increase observed in the latter. The labor market responds positively, as evidenced by higher wages and hours worked. The study also reveals that these carbon policy changes have played a significant role in historical fluctuations within the energy sector, especially during the Great Financial Crisis and key policy changes. The findings highlight the importance of judicious policymaking concerning carbon regulations, as the escalation in energy prices wields significant economic effects, though not all of these effects are bad from the energy industry standpoint.
    Keywords: climate policy, carbon credits, emissions trading, cap and trade, Euro Area, SVAR
    JEL: E32 E62 H23 Q48 Q58 L94
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03212024&r=
  16. By: Wauters, Joris (National Bank of Belgium); Zekaite, Zivile (Central Bank of Ireland); Garabedian, Garo (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This paper uses the Bundesbank’s online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment with different information treatments and compared long-run expectations for euro area overall inflation, interest rates, and OOH inflation. Long-run expectations are typically higher for OOH inflation than overall inflation, and both are unanchored from the ECB’s target at the time of the survey. We find significantly higher inflation expectations under the treatment where OOH costs are assumed to be fully included in the inflation measure. This information effect is heterogeneous as, among others, homeowners and respondents with low trust in the ECB react more strongly. However, inflation expectations remain stable when information about past OOH inflation is also given. Careful communication design could thus prevent expectations from becoming more de-anchored.
    Keywords: Owner-occupied housing costs, survey experiment, inflation measurement, inflation expectations, ECB.
    JEL: D83 D84 E31 E50
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:3/rt/24&r=
  17. By: Christensen, Björn; Klodt, Henning; Schrader, Klaus; Steglich, Frauke; Stehn, Jürgen
    Abstract: Es wird gezeigt, dass die Gesamtarbeitskräftelücke in Schleswig-Holstein unter Status quo-Annahmen bis 2035 auf 326.799 Personen steigt und durch Fachkräfte dominiert wird. Die größten Arbeitskräftelücken sind für die Wirtschaftszweige Gesundheits- und Sozialwesen, Verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Baugewerbe und Handel zu erwarten. Die Simulationen ergeben, dass die Kombination der Erhöhung der Erwerbsbeteiligung - z.B. von älteren Menschen und Frauen - sowie eine qualifizierte Zuwanderung einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Reduktion der Arbeitskräftelücke leisten kann. Zudem sollten die Digitalisierung und Automation auf allen Ebenen von Staat und Wirtschaft konsequent zur Verringerung von Arbeitskräftelücken genutzt werden. Im Fokus einer Fachkräftestrategie sollten die Koordination aller Akteure und eine permanente Evaluierung der ergriffenen Maßnahmen stehen. Dabei sollte es sich um ein heterogenes Maßnahmenbündel handeln, da es weder einzelne "Leuchtturm-Maßnahmen" noch simple Blaupausen für die Bewältigung der Fachkräfteproblematik gibt.
    Abstract: It is shown that the total labor force gap in Schleswig-Holstein will increase to 326, 799 people by 2035 under status quo assumptions and will be dominated by skilled workers. The largest labor gaps are expected in the health and social services, manufacturing, construction and trade sectors. The simulations show that the combination of increasing labor force participation - e.g. of older people and women - and skilled immigration can make a significant contribution to reducing the labor shortage. In addition, digitalization and automation should be used consistently at all levels of the state and economy to reduce labor shortages. A skilled labor strategy should focus on the coordination of all stakeholders and a permanent evaluation of the measures taken. This should be a heterogeneous bundle of measures, as there are neither individual "lighthouse measures" nor simple blueprints for tackling the problem of skilled workers.
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt, Schleswig-Holstein, Regionalpolitik, Bundesländer, Deutschland, labor market, Schleswig-Holstein, regional policy, federal states, Germany
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:295729&r=
  18. By: Rickels, Wilfried; Fridahl, Mathias; Rothenstein, Roland; Schenuit, Felix
    Abstract: A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating result-based carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden's or Denmark's, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
    Abstract: Eine CO2-Zentralbank (Carbon Central Bank, CCB), die atmosphärische CO2-Entnahme in Zertifikate übersetzt, würde das Emissionshandelssystem der Europäischen Union (EU ETS) langfristig von einem Fiat-Zertifikate-System in ein Goldstandard-System umwandeln und damit unveränderte Nettoemissionen auf dem Weg zu Netto-Null-Treibhausgasemissionen gewährleisten. Um diese Erwartungen zu erfüllen, bedarf es einer starken CCB mit einem klaren Bekenntnis zu einem Netto-Null-Treibhausgas-Ziel. Zudem sollte die CCB mit der Fähigkeit ausgestattet werden, den Markt auf dem Weg zu diesem Ziel zu stabilisieren. Dies erfordert einen starken institutionellen Rahmen, der durch die Eingliederung der CCB in die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) erreicht werden könnte, wobei auf deren Ruf und Kapazität aufgebaut werden könnte. Angesichts der langen Vorlaufzeit für die Einrichtung einer solchen Institution sollte die Europäische Kommission bereits jetzt erste Schritte unternehmen, um die andere Voraussetzung zu erfüllen, nämlich eine Reserve an CO2-Entnahme Zertifikaten aufzubauen, die einer CCB in der Zukunft die Glaubwürdigkeit verleihen würde, den Markt zu stabilisieren. Um die CRC-Reserve aufzubauen, sollte die EU nach dem Vorbild der USA sofort mit der ergebnisorientierten Beschaffung von CO2-Entnahme zu beginnen, der dann den ersten Schritt für eine sequenzielle Integration von CO2-Entnahme in die Klimapolitik bilden würde. Dies könnte durch die Entwicklung eines zentralen Beschaffungsprogramms erreicht werden, das bestehende Programme wie in Schweden oder Dänemark unterstützt und neue Programme in weiteren Mitgliedstaaten anreizt. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung dafür ist die Möglichkeit, CO2-Entnahme-Zertifikate, die noch nicht für die Erfüllung der kurzfristigen EU-Klimaziele in Frage kommen, zu "sparen" und in späteren Anrechnungszeiträumen zu nutzen.
    Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Removal, Carbon Central Bank, Carbon Certificate Banking, Net-Zero Emissions Targets, Net-Negative Emissions Targets, CO2-Entnahme, CO2-Zentralbank, CO2-Zertifikatereserve, Netto-Null Emissionsziele, Netto-Negative Emissionsziele
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:295745&r=
  19. By: Bachtal, Yassien Nico
    Abstract: The world of work, particularly the physical organization of work, is undergoing a profound transformation process. The causes of this transformation process are technological innovations, organizational changes, and the increasing pluralization of employee requirements. Even though this transformation process of the physical organization of work began several years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased its speed. As a measure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home enabled office workers worldwide to gain experience with this workplace. Work from home describes regular working from home, which is made possible using information and communication technologies. This gives employees a direct comparison between working in the office and working from home and allows them to choose their place of work more purposefully depending on their work activities. The widespread introduction of work from home influences life and work on several levels. At an individual level, the question arises as to which employees are generally suitable for working from home. At the level of the working environment, there needs to be more knowledge about the extent to which work from home influences the digital equipment of residential properties. Furthermore, it remains unclear how the interaction between the employee (person) and the working environment (environment) in work from home affects individual work success (fit). This dissertation explores these research questions with the help of a total of five research articles. The first article classifies work from home in a hybrid working environment and uses an international comparison between the United States and Germany. Hybrid working is defined by the distribution of working hours between the office, work from home, and third places of work, and describes a combination of these places of work. The article shows that WFH is a high priority for many employees in a hybrid working environment. While working hours in the office are almost identical in both countries at around one-third, it is clear that third places of work (e.g., coworking spaces) are more important for employees in the United States than Germany. The article shows that this divergence is primarily cultural. Overall, this article shows that employees internationally attach great importance to WFH in a hybrid working environment. The second article addresses the importance of work from home in a hybrid work environment and examines in a preliminary study which aspects enable successful work from home. The results of the article show correlative relationships between spatial, personal, and work-related characteristics on the one hand, and satisfaction and productivity on the other. Consequently, successful work at home is only possible if all three dimensions are met. This article indicates that only around 25 % of employees who can work from home are successful there. The third research article takes up the results of the second study. The aim is to take a closer look at these 25 % of employees who successfully work from home. The results make it clear that more experienced employees who live in well-equipped residential properties and have a high degree of work autonomy can work successfully from home. Career starters, who often live in properties that are not suitable for work from home, are less successful in working from home. The fourth article is specifically dedicated to examining the influence of real estate characteristics on satisfaction and productivity in work from home. Furthermore, the relative importance of real estate characteristics is compared with organizational and socio-psychological characteristics. It is shown that real estate characteristics highly influence satisfaction and productivity in work from home. Compared to organizational and socio-psychological characteristics, real estate characteristics are the most important. The fifth research article delves into the factors that impact the purchase intention of smart homes, shedding light on the heightened inclination towards technology, notably spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in remote work. This study investigates the intricate interplay between these aspects, unravelling the nuanced role that the increased affinity for technology, especially in the context of the widespread shift to remote work, plays in shaping consumer attitudes toward smart home adoption. The social environment primarily influences the intention to buy smart homes. However, the results also make it clear that the increased affinity for technology improves attitudes toward such residential properties, leading to a higher purchase intention. With these findings, this dissertation expands research on work from home. Work from home offers potential for both companies and society. At the same time, the dissertation also shows the risks associated with working from home. These potentials can only be realized by taking an individual view of an organization’s workforce and combining the office, work from home, and third places. The dissertation offers a theoretical-conceptual classification in the current state of research and supported by the results, provides implications for practice to meet the challenges in the transformation process of the physical organization of work.
    Date: 2024–05–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:144916&r=
  20. By: Ouassim Manout (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Azise-Oumar Diallo (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Autonomous vehicles will be one of the most disruptive technologies of the automative industry. Their wider implications on society are expected to be considerable, even if these implications are still under debate. Meanwhile, various stakeholders, including cities and tech companies, are launching different AV pilot projects to test and help boost the technology readiness level. This research assesses some of the impacts of three AV mobility scenarios: private, shared, and pooled AVs in Lyon, France. An agent-based simulation framework is used (MATSim). Results suggest that AV services can reshuffle existing transportation dynamics by attracting a significant share of travel demand, especially from public transport and walking. If not regulated, these services can produce substantial excess travel distances and increase energy consumption and emissions of the transportation system. In this regard, pooled robotaxis are the least impactful introduction scenario of AVs compared to non-pooled robotaxis or private AVs.
    Keywords: Autonomous vehicle, Shared autonomous vehicle, Pooled autonomous vehicle, Robotaxi, Impact, Agent-based model
    Date: 2023–06–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04570546&r=
  21. By: Fulda, Carolin; Stettes, Oliver
    Abstract: Derzeit klagen Unternehmen nicht nur über Schwierigkeiten bei der Rekrutierung von Beschäftigten, sondern auch bei der internen Beförderung von Mitarbeitern in vakante Führungspositionen. Menschen mit Behinderungen sind derzeit in Führungspositionen unterrepräsentiert. Während mehr als drei von zehn Beschäftigten ohne Behinderungen Führungsverantwortung wahrnehmen (31 Prozent), sind dies bei diejenigen zum Beispiel mit einem Grad der Behinderung von mindesten 50 nicht einmal ein Viertel (23 Prozent). Vor diesem Hintergrund geht diese Studie der Frage nach, ob sich Karriereambitionen von Menschen mit und ohne Behinderungen unterscheiden und ob intensivierte Inklusionsbemühungen Potenziale eröffnen können, vakante Stellen mit Führungsverantwortung schneller mit geeigneten Kandidaten zu besetzen.
    Abstract: Many companies in Germany report having difficulties not only in recruiting employees, but also in filling vacant management positions. Employees with disabilities are currently underrepresented in such jobs. Only 23 per cent of these employees have taken on managerial responsibility in comparison to 31 per cent of employees without any disabilities. Thus, this study examines if the career ambitions of employees with and without disabilities differ and whether inclusion policies by human resource management can paving the path into management positions for those with disabilities.
    JEL: J14 J81 M12 M51
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:295242&r=
  22. By: Pfnür, Andreas; Wagner, Benjamin
    Abstract: The German real estate and construction industry is facing a transformation, triggered by fundamental changes in technology, the economy and society. The purpose of this paper is to explore how these changes exert pressure to adapt on existing business models, while also offering opportunities for their further development. A model that attributes the transformation of the real estate industry to megatrends, specific structural change drivers, business models and the interaction of the groups of players in the value creation system is developed. The model is tested empirically by a survey. Structural equation modelling is used to measure the impact of various determinants of transformation and the relevance of adaptation strategies to the different groups of players. As a result, the study explains three impact mechanisms of the transformation in the real estate industry. The transformation originates from the occupiers, who need more flexible space and are focusing on holistic solutions that are not provided by the real estate industry. Service providers are striving to increase the efficiency of their traditional processes, rather than evolving new business models or services. The investors recognise the increasing importance of the occupiers but they are rarely pursuing the resulting strategies. Property developers recognise these requirements: their adaptation strategies most strongly question their previous business. For practitioners, the results point out the opportunities and risks of transformation and help to illustrate the need for change. For academicians, the results indicate a way to explain and measure the transformation of a value creation system.
    Date: 2024–04–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:144706&r=
  23. By: Anabela Marques Santos; Michele Cincera; Giovanni Cerulli
    Abstract: The study assesses the impact of eight sources of financing (internal funds, bank loans, credit lines, trade credit, equity, grants, leasing and factoring) on innovation and firm growth. It provides evidence that not all external financing sources have the same impact on innovation and growth. Output additionality on turnover growth seems higher for equity financing. In contrast, employment growth appears to be more associated with financing sources linked to increased fixed assets or the solving of liquidity problems. The number of financing instruments used together also seems to matter, revealing the existence of complementarities.
    Keywords: Europe; Financing; Growth; Innovation
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/372408&r=
  24. By: Sandra Eickmeier; Luba Petersen
    Abstract: We examine public trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) and its determinants using data from the Bundesbank Household Panel survey for Germany. Employing an interdisciplinary approach that integrates insights from political science and psychology, we offer a fresh perspective on the factors influencing central bank trust that is more holistic than the conventional one. Our primary findings can be summarized as follows. Households who state that competence, which we define as the ECB’s performance in maintaining stable prices and making decisions grounded in rules, science, and data, matters for their trust in the ECB, tend to express higher trust in the ECB. Conversely, those who place greater importance on values, particularly the integrity of top central bankers, honest communication and broader concern, tend to trust the ECB less. Trust in the ECB also hinges on trust in political institutions more generally and, to a lesser extent, on generalized trust (i.e. trust in others).
    Keywords: central banks, trust, survey, trust, central bank communication, values, experiences, credibility
    JEL: E7 E58 E59 C93 D84 Z13 Z18
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-31&r=
  25. By: Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc's economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study--new policies associated with China's exports of electric vehicles and graphite--that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history.
    Keywords: Economic security, supply chains, industrial policy, trade policy, tariffs, subsidies, export controls
    JEL: F13 L52
    Date: 2024–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-2&r=
  26. By: Helen Laubenstein; Xavier Leflaive
    Abstract: This paper examines three sets of issues related to strategic investment planning and financing for water: i) Investment planning in an uncertain context; ii) The benefits of supplementing project level planning with a consideration for pathways of investments; iii) Facilitating access to a wider range of financing sources, most importantly commercial finance. Together these issues can enhance the performance of water-related finance, making the best use of available finance and assets, in a context marked by high-level of (public and private) debt and rising cost of finance. This is the first in a sub-set of four working papers within the Environment Working Paper series destined to support the further implementation of the economic pillar of the Water Framework Directive. The four papers are best read in combination and provide lessons which are relevant beyond the European Union.
    Keywords: financing strategy, infrastructure finance, investment pathway, investment planning, water finance
    JEL: H23 H54 H76 O21 Q21 Q25 Q28 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2024–05–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:237-en&r=
  27. By: Xavier Leflaive
    Abstract: This paper examines the current status of water availability, water demand, and influences from climate change in the European Union. It provides an overview of economic policy instruments to address water scarcity and manage water demand. Additionally, the paper explores policy options and considerations for addressing water scarcity and meeting Water Framework Directive (WFD) objectives. These considerations include balancing demand management and supply augmentation, managing water scarcity through robust allocation regimes, and increasing the use of agro-environmental measures and practices. The paper also discusses the principles and features of effective allocation regimes, drivers and incentives for allocation reforms, the hierarchy and sequencing of water use, abstraction charges, ensuring return flows and ecological flows, and improving the coherence of WFD measures and climate change policies. This is the third in a sub-set of four working papers within the Environment Working Paper series destined to support the further implementation of the economic pillar of the Water Framework Directive. The four papers are best read in combination and provide lessons which are relevant beyond the European Union.
    Keywords: abstraction charges, drought, ecological flows, environmental flows, water allocation, water demand, Water Framework Directive, water scarcity
    JEL: H23 H54 H76 O21 Q21 Q25 Q28 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2024–05–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:239-en&r=
  28. By: Hugo Morão
    Abstract: This paperinvestigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomicvariables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. Onthefinancial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.
    Keywords: Economicuncertainty, Policyuncertainty, Uncertaintyshocks, Proxy-SVAR, Correlation restrictions, Textual analysis
    JEL: C43 D80 E32 E65 E66
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03222024&r=
  29. By: SCHAEFER K. Aleks; NES Kjersti (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Sustainability standards may generate two opposing effects on trade flows between the importer adopting the standard and an affected exporter. First, to the extent a standard leads to an increase in the marginal costs of producing a given product in the exporting country, the standard may lead to a reduction in trade. Conversely, to the extent the standard leads to an increase in the demand for the product in the importing country, the standard may lead to an increase in trade. The net effect on trade, which depends on the relative magnitude of the two factors and the international scope of the standard (i.e. whether it is implemented multilaterally, regionally, bilaterally, or unilaterally). The general consensus in the literature appears to be that the trade-reducing effects of standards typically dominate the trade-enhancing effects of standards. However, in certain situations, the trade-enhancing effects can mitigate or even reverse these negative effects. A trade reduction does necessary imply a reduction in welfare as it may reduce consumption of goods with negative externalities. The trade effects of voluntary sustainability standards tend toward 'trade enhancing' outcomes as opposed to `trade reducing' outcomes. However, there seems to be self-selection effect: only those adopt for whom it is profitable.
    Date: 2024–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc130596&r=
  30. By: Alexander Karaivanov; Benoit Mojon; Luiz Pereira da Silva; Albert Pierres Tejada; Robert Townsend
    Abstract: We model a reinsurance mechanism for the national unemployment insurance programs of euro area member states. The risk-sharing scheme we analyze is designed to smooth country-level unemployment risk and expenditures around each country’s median level, so that participation and contributions remain incentive-compatible at all times and there are no redistributionary transfers across countries. We show that, relative to the status quo, such scheme would have provided nearly perfect insurance of the euro area member states’ unemployment expenditures risk in the aftermath of the 2009 sovereign debt crisis if allowed to borrow up to 2 percent of the euro area GDP. Limiting, or not allowing borrowing by the scheme would have still provided significant smoothing of surpluses and deficits in the national unemployment insurance programs over the period 2000–2019.
    JEL: E62 F32 J65
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32396&r=
  31. By: Olesya V. Grishchenko; Laura Wilcox
    Abstract: We study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the Unites States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts as well as probabilities of future inflation for any range of inflation outcomes in closed form at any horizon. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation expectations increased materially amid heightened uncertainty about future inflation. Likelihood of significant departures of inflation targets in the longer term reached about 15 percent in the middle of 2022, increasing from near zero levels in 2020. Such an increase in the right tail of the probability distribution over future inflation outcomes drives an increase in inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums. Several popular external uncertainty measures are associated with variation in tail probabilities.
    Keywords: Inflation forecasts; Inflation state-space model; Probability of rare inflation events; Inflation anchoring
    JEL: G12 G13 G14
    Date: 2024–05–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-28&r=
  32. By: Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth
    Abstract: The global economic landscape has fundamentally shifted from the paradigm of globalization to renewed concerns regarding the risks and rewards of technological interdependence. This shift has sparked a critical discussion on technology sovereignty. This concept refers to a country's ability to provide essential technologies for competitiveness and welfare, and to develop or acquire them from other geographic areas without being unilaterally dependent on any particular one. We analyze the technology sovereignty of the world's leading innovators, including Europe, the US, China, Japan and Korea. By examining citation data from the universe of PCT patent applications, we determine the strength and direction of inventions' influence at global and bilateral levels to assess each geographic area's technology sovereignty. Our analysis shows that the US holds substantial technology sovereignty due to its leading global and bilateral influence. Despite ongoing US-European integration, their global positions differ, as Europe is dependent on all other areas except China. Although China has globally filed the most patent applications in recent years, bilaterally it remains dependent on all other geographic areas. Moreover, only Japan and Korea show a recent decline in their global influence.
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:294873&r=

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