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on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Marion Goussé; Nicolas Jacquemet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Marc Robin |
| Abstract: | Economic homogamy is a well-documented fact in demography. The preferred interpretation of this phenomenon is a preference for "entre-soi, " but the characteristics of the spouses in a household condition not only their satisfaction in being together, but also their decisions on the division of labor. In this article, we present an approach that encompasses both the process of couple formation, the sharing of resources within the household, and the complementarity of spouses in couple activities. Studying German data from 2013 to 2019, we show that wage homogamy is concentrated at the top of the distribution, that education has a very important weight in spousal complementarities, and that wages and education play a similar role in household income-sharing arrangements. |
| Abstract: | L'homogamie économique est un phénomène largement documenté, qui est souvent interprété comme résultant d'une préférence pour l'entre-soi. Pourtant, les caractéristiques des conjoints dans un ménage conditionnent non seulement leur satisfaction à être ensemble mais également leurs décisions de division du travail. Nous présentons dans cet article une approche qui englobe à la fois le processus de formation des couples, le partage des ressources au sein du ménage, et la complémentarité des conjoints dans les activités du couple. Appliquée à l'Allemagne entre 2013 et 2019, cette approche montre que l'homogamie salariale est concentrée dans le haut de la distribution, que l'éducation a un poids très important dans les complémentarités des conjoints, et que le salaire et l'éducation jouent un rôle similaire dans les modalités de partage du revenu du ménage. |
| Date: | 2024–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04508787&r=eur |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Dijkstra, Lewis; Poelman, Hugo |
| Abstract: | While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck—or are at risk of becoming stuck—in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbors and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for antisystem parties at the ballot box. In this article we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU)—proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022—using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship remains robust whether considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or including parties with more moderate levels of Euroscepticism. |
| Keywords: | discontent; euroscepticism; development trap; economic growth; employment; productivity; regions; EU; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | D72 R58 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122411&r=eur |
| By: | González González, Diego |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of childhood obesity on the academic performance and human capital accumulation of high school students using data from Spain. To address potential endogeneity issues, we exploit the exogenous variation in obesity within peer groups. Specifically, we use the prevalence of obesity by gender in students' classes as an instrumentalvariable for individual obesity. The results indicate that obesity has a negative impact on academic achievement, particularly on general scores for girls, cognitive abilities as measured by CRT scores, financial abilities, and English grades for both boys and girls. In addition, we found a negative impact of obesity on girls' mathematics scores, while boys experienced a positive impact. We identify several key drivers of these effects, including teacher bias, psychological well-being, time preferences, and expectations related to labor market discrimination. Our analysis sheds light on the multiple influences of childhood obesity on academic outcomes and highlights the need for targeted interventions. |
| Keywords: | Childhood obesity; Academic performance; Human capital accumulation; Cognitive abilities; Peer effects |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I15 I18 I21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:43822&r=eur |
| By: | Marko Dru?i? (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Tomislav Gelo (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper was to investigate the effects of the share of value added of the ICT sector on productivity within the EU, and also to investigate any systematic differences in the effects between east (transition countries) and west (developed) EU members. To analyze the effect we used a fixed effects panel framework on a total of 23 EU countries (12 countries in ?west? and 11 in ?east? Europe) in a 25 year time period (1995-2020). Our main finding is that overall the share of ICT value added is a relevant and statistically significant predictor of labor productivity in the entire EU region. Furthermore, we find that the effect is twice as strong in west as opposed to east EU countries, implying a greater efficiency in translating new technology into more output per worker in developed countries. Additionally, we find that government share of GDP is a negative predictor of labor productivity in both sets of countries, giving credence to the often heard criticisms of the inefficient EU labor market due to excessive regulation which is further exacerbated by high corruption levels in east EU countries. Finally, we find that GDP per capita has a statistically significant negative relationship with productivity also in both sets of countries, implying that there is a significant catch-up effect at work both within west and east EU, with higher GDP per capita levels corresponding with lower productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | ICT, Productivity, Transition countries |
| JEL: | N10 O47 O57 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115901&r=eur |
| By: | Stefan Raychev (University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Yuliyan Mollov (University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the cohesion policy in the EU and analyzes the role of decentralization for the sustainable development of the European regions at the NUTS 2 level. It examines the regional policy in the EU member states and its relationship with the decentralization and social progress of the regions. The study also covers sustainable urban development in Europe. Trends and effects of decentralization on economic growth and regional inequalities are discussed. A methodology based on statistical analysis is used to compare the social progress of European regions. A comprehensive approach is applied to reveal relationships and dependencies between indicators of a socio-economic nature within EU NUTS 2 level regions. In this sense, the methodology uses statistical software tools to reveal trends in the structural aspect of regional development and thus draw conclusions and recommendations for policies and measures aimed at increasing the effectiveness of fiscal regionalization. Incorporating principles of green economics into regional policy and decentralization efforts can drive the adoption of sustainable practices, such as renewable energy deployment, eco-friendly infrastructure development, and the promotion of green industries. The integration of green economic strategies within regional governance structures empowers regions to pursue environmentally conscious initiatives, contributing to the overall transition towards a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, Region development, Social-progress index of regions, Decentralization, Cohesion, Sustainable development |
| JEL: | R11 Q01 R58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115972&r=eur |
| By: | Stefan Ambec (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Federico Esposito (Tufts University [Medford]); Antonia Pacelli (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II) |
| Abstract: | In a trade model with endogenous emissions abatement, we investigate the impact of three policy instruments aimed at mitigating carbon leakage: free emission allowances, a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and a CBAM with export rebates. We show that providing free allowances does not alter the incentives to abate carbon emissions, but, instead fosters the entry of more carbon intensive producers. This "levels the playing field" both domestically and internationally, and may even reverse carbon leakage. In contrast, a CBAM only levels the playing field domestically, and may lead to an autarky equilibrium. To reverse carbon leakage, a CBAM must be complemented with export rebates. We further show that a CBAM and export rebates improve welfare for any carbon price, and we identify the optimal share of free allowances with or without a CBAM. Finally, we perform a calibration exercise on cement and steel sectors to simulate the effects of the CBAM recently adopted by the European Union. Our model predicts a scenario with reverse carbon leakage and significant welfare gains for both sectors. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Trade, Carbon leakage, CBAM, Free allowances, Export rebates |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04550380&r=eur |
| By: | Sónia Cabral; Cláudia Duarte; José R. Maria |
| Abstract: | High-quality economic analysis requires high-quality data. We construct quarterly industrylevel databases for Portugal and the euro area with a rich and homogeneous breakdown since 1995. The data facilitate international comparisons based on value added, wages, producer prices, hours worked and capital, disaggregated by industries, viz. construction, wholesale and retail trade or human health and social work activities. As an illustration we compare Portugal and the euro area in manufacturing and accommodation and food service activities over 1995Q1-2022Q4. We show that Portuguese value added and real producer wages, per hour, are consistently below those of the euro area in both industries. Capital per hour in manufacturing is systematically lower in Portugal, but not in accommodation and food service activities since the late 2000s. In both economies, manufacturing witnessed an upward trend in value added, real wages and capital stock, all per hour. In contrast, accommodation and food service activities recorded a downward trend in value added per hour and real hourly wages. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:o202302&r=eur |
| By: | Thomson, Sarah; Cylus, Jonathan; Al Tayara, Lynn; Martínez, Marcos Gallardo; García-Ramírez, Jorge Alejandro; Gregori, María Serrano; Cerezo-Cerezo, José; Karanikolos, Marina; Evetovits, Tamás |
| Keywords: | affordable access to health care; unmet need; financial protection; universal health coverage; out-of-pocket payments; financial hardship; Europe |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122773&r=eur |
| By: | Pedro Teles; João Brogueira de Sousa |
| Abstract: | We study preferential tax schemes for high-skill immigrants such as those adopted in Europe in the past two decades. The overall assessment is negative. While they induce a very large immigration surplus tilted towards the low-skill, they may also give rise to an emigration deficit that more than offsets the surplus. The unilateral adoption is ambiguous in its welfare effects for both high- and low-skill workers, but the multilateral adoption is unambiguous in redistributing from low-skill to high-skill workers. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202321&r=eur |
| By: | Pedro Dias Moreira; João Monteiro |
| Abstract: | How do exporting firms react to changes in the cost of credit? To answer this question, we exploit an exogenous variation in banking regulation which increases the cost of financing forexports in the European Union. Using a unique dataset which combines customs, firm-level, and credit registry data on Portuguese firms we find that in response to an increase in the costof credit, exports fall by 10 percent through the intensive margin. In the extensive margin, we also show that there is a sharp drop in entry as well as an increase in firm exit. Within a firm, we document that firms reduce their dependence on bank credit by adjusting their product mix, as firms shift towards products with a low dependence on working capital and bank credit. We also provide direct evidence of the mechanism through which the change in banking regulation operates. We find that loan rates for exporting firms increase and that loan amounts fall by 7 percent. We then turn to aggregate trade data for all E.U. countries. We find that there is an overall decline in exports, but that this decline is driven by countries with undercapitalized banks or where bank equity is scarce. This finding suggests that the health of the banking system is an important determinant of how exports react to an increase in the cost of credit. Using a multi-sector Ricardian model, we show that welfare in E.U. countries declines due to a depreciation in terms of trade. Welfare in countries which import goods from the E.U. also declines. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202320&r=eur |
| By: | António Rua; Fátima Cardoso |
| Abstract: | climate and environmental policies aimed at promoting sustainable development and human well-being. The importance of reducing the carbon footprint has long been acknowledged and the European countries have been paving the way in this respect. In particular, we focus on Portugal where a striking reduction of carbon emissions has been observed in just a few years. We perform a structural decomposition analysis over the last two decades allowing to unveil the main drivers underlying the evolution of carbon emissions. We find that the investment on renewable energy sources, namely wind, has been key for a successful transition to a cleaner economy. The impact has been felt both on the reduction of carbon intensity as well as on the increase of energy efficiency in power generation. We also find that such benign evolution was partly counterbalanced by the increase of the contribution of final demand to carbon emissions despite being attenuated with the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings highlight the importance of the adoption of renewable energy sources to support a further mitigation of the carbon footprint in a context of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202312&r=eur |
| By: | Ana Zrnic (Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek); Dubravka Pekanov (Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek); Ivana Fosi? (Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an analysis of sustainability reporting practices in the European Union, focusing on indicators disclosed by energy companies in accordance with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) guidelines and standards. By analyzing data from sustainability reports of energy companies between 2016 and 2019, the paper investigates the evolution of indicator disclosure over time. The findings reveal that economic indicators have been consistently reported without significant fluctuations, while environmental indicators show a slight decline since 2017, albeit without major deviations. On the other hand, social indicators demonstrate a positive trend throughout the entire period, particularly when compared to the lowest disclosure rate in 2016. The analysis highlights the voluntary nature of GRI standards' application and the limited disclosure of economic indicators by companies. It underscores the need to include economic indicators in sustainability reports to ensure a comprehensive representation of all three dimensions of sustainability. Furthermore, the study suggests narrowing down GRI standards as many indicators are underutilized in the analyzed companies. While the development of sustainability reporting standards for EU companies is underway, global comparability remains a challenge. Therefore, the paper envisions the future development of a global sustainability reporting framework, akin to financial reporting, to enhance organizations' assessment, comparability, and improvement of sustainability performance. In this regard, the GRI framework, based on its current application, holds potential for further refinement and formalization. Ultimately, achieving adequate standardization and harmonization will be crucial in advancing the field of sustainability reporting. This is particulary important for investors interested in making informed decisions based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability reporting, GRI standards, Energy companies, Sustainable investment |
| JEL: | M48 Q56 Q49 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115959&r=eur |
| By: | Gubitz, Andrea; Toedter, Karl-Heinz; Ziebarth, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Despite the "interest rate turnaround" initiated by the ECB in the second half of 2022 as a late reaction to the clearly underestimated persistence of high inflation rates in the euro area, real interest rates are by no means to be regarded as restrictive, neither in the ex post nor in the ex ante view. However, banks have been quite quick to adopt stricter lending guidelines, and demand in housing construction and mortgage lending has plummeted. Against this background, the paper discusses the importance of cash flow effects in annuity loans and in particular analyses the so-called front-loading effect. Accordingly, even if inflation rates are fully anticipated and real market and lending interest rates remain unchanged, higher nominal rates lead to strong additional financial burdens in the first phases of the typically mortgages with long maturities. Such liquidity effects can severely reduce the ability or willingness to pay of private investors in the household sector. This is particularly true for long-run loans in the form of a percentage annuity, as an additional maturity shortening effect occurs here. These types of fixed term loans are quite popular in Germany. Looking ahead, there is also a real risk to the stock of housing loans if there is a refinancing of the large stock of cheap housing loans, a risk that also has implications for macroeconomic and financial stability. |
| Abstract: | Trotz der von der EZB eingeleiteten "Zinswende" in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2022 als späte Reaktion auf die deutlich unterschätzte Persistenz hoher Inflationsraten im Euroraum sind die Realzinsen sowohl in der ex post Betrachtung als auch in der ex ante Betrachtung keineswegs als restriktiv einzuschätzen. Die Banken haben allerdings recht rasch strengere Vergaberichtlinien beschlossen, und die Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau und bei den Hypothekarkrediten ist stark eingebrochen. Der Beitrag thematisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die Bedeutung von Zahlungsstromeffekten bei Annuitätenkrediten und analysiert hier vor allem den sog. front-loading Effekt. Danach führen höhere Nominalzinsen selbst bei vollständig antizipierten Inflationsraten und unveränderten Realzinsen zu starken finanziellen Zusatzbelastungen in den ersten Phasen der typischerweise langen Kreditlaufzeit. Derartige Liquiditätseffekte können die Zahlungsfähigkeit bzw. die Zahlungsbereitschaft der privaten Investoren empfindlich verringern. Dies gilt vor allem bei Darlehen in Form der Prozentannuität, da hier zusätzlich ein Laufzeitenverkürzungseffekt auftritt. Solche Darlehen sind in Deutschland recht populär. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft besteht auch eine reale Gefahr für den Bestand an Wohnungsbaukrediten, wenn es zu einer Refinanzierung des großen Bestands an günstigen Wohnungsbaukrediten kommt, ein Risiko, das auch Auswirkungen auf die makroökonomische und finanzielle Stabilität hat. |
| Keywords: | ECB, monetary policy, liquidity effects of interest rate policy, front loading effects, housing finance, mortgage |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E59 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hawdps:294836&r=eur |
| By: | Martti Kaila |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of income-based criminal punishments on crime. In Finland, speeding tickets become income-dependent if the driver’s speed exceeds the speeding limit by more than 20 km/h, leading to a substantial jump in the size of the speeding ticket. Contrary to predictions of a traditional Becker model, individuals do not bunch below the fine hike. Instead, the speeding distributions are smooth at the cutoff. However, I demonstrate that the size of the realized speeding ticket has sizable but short-lived impacts on reoffending ex-post. I use a regression discontinuity design to show that fines that are 200 euros larger decrease reoffending by 15 percent in the following six months. After 12 months, the effect disappears. My empirical results are consistent with an explanation that people operate under information frictions. To illustrate this, I construct a Becker model with misperception and learning that can explain all the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | deterrence, learning, optimization frictions, regression discontinuity design, income-based fines |
| JEL: | K40 K42 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11064&r=eur |
| By: | Miller, David A; Watson, Joel |
| Keywords: | Economics, Applied Economics, Economic Theory, equilibrium selection, active contracting, bargaining power, relationships, Applied economics, Economic theory |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt2dg817mv&r=eur |
| By: | Hugo Spring-Ragain (HEIP - Hautes Etudes Internationales et Politiques, Centre d'Etudes Diplomatiques et Stratégique) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of patents in contemporary economic diplomacy, highlighting their growing importance in international negotiations and trade relations. Patents are defined as key intellectual property instruments allowing companies and research centers to protect their innovations and obtain a temporary monopoly on their exploitation. International patent cooperation is explored through agreements such as the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), which facilitates the filing of international patents, and the European Patent Convention (EPC), which harmonizes procedures. deposit in Europe. Co-patents and triadic patents are also analyzed as forms of cooperation between companies and between states. The case of COVID-19 is used as a concrete example to illustrate patent diplomacy, highlighting both cooperation and competition between states in the development and distribution of vaccines. Despite international cooperation, diplomatic tensions and commercial rivalries have emerged, particularly between Western and Eastern countries. Patents have played a central role in these issues, with debates over lifting patents to ensure equitable access to vaccines. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine le rôle des brevets dans la diplomatie économique contemporaine, mettant en lumière leur importance croissante dans les négociations internationales et les relations commerciales. Les brevets sont définis comme des instruments clés de propriété intellectuelle permettant aux entreprises et aux centres de recherche de protéger leurs innovations et d'obtenir un monopole temporaire sur leur exploitation. La coopération internationale en matière de brevets est explorée à travers des accords tels que le Traité de Coopération en matière de Brevets (PCT), qui facilite le dépôt de brevets internationaux, et la Convention sur le Brevet Européen (CBE), qui harmonise les procédures de dépôt en Europe. Les co-brevets et les brevets triadiques sont également analysés comme des formes de coopération entre entreprises et entre États. Le cas du COVID-19 est utilisé comme exemple concret pour illustrer la diplomatie des brevets, mettant en évidence à la fois la coopération et la concurrence entre les États dans le développement et la distribution des vaccins. Malgré la coopération internationale, des tensions diplomatiques et des rivalités commerciales ont émergé, notamment entre les pays occidentaux et orientaux. Les brevets ont joué un rôle central dans ces enjeux, avec des débats sur la levée des brevets pour assurer un accès équitable aux vaccins. |
| Keywords: | Brevets, Economie, Diplomatie |
| Date: | 2024–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04540636&r=eur |
| By: | Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia PhD; Circella, Giovanni PhD; Lecompte, Maria Carolina MSc; Rossignol, Lucia; Ozbilen, Basar |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the potential economic and development impacts that high-speed rail (HSR) may bring to California. The research reviews the reported impacts of HSR implementation in various countries, particularly in Europe, and case studies of selected HSR station-cities in France, Spain, and Italy. The analysis suggests that HSR could bring economic development to the state and stimulate population growth but might eventually lead to gentrification in certainlocations. Not all station-cities experience the same impacts, and certain conditions may foster greater economic development. Station location and connectivity to downtown areas would be particularly important in influencing these impacts, while peripheral stations would be less able to attract land use development and relocation of activities. The availability of rail service to larger cities (and connections to other major markets) and the coordination with urban planning and policy are key to determining the development of areas around HSR stations. The study indicates that for HSR to bring about desired economic development, the planning and design of stations and services must be integrated with the vision and urban plans of each station-city. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, High-speed rail, economic development, rail stations, transportation planning, California |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5s93r8wb&r=eur |
| By: | Ruggeri, Kai (Columbia University); Abate Romero Landini, Giampaolo; Busch, Katharina; Cafarelli, Valentina; Doubravová, Barbora; Gurol, Deniz Misra; Miralem, Melika; Nilsson, Fredrik; Ashcroft-Jones, Sarah (University of Heidelberg); Stock, Friederike |
| Abstract: | Positive deviants are individuals from disadvantaged circumstances who outperform the typically negative outcomes for their group. Research on positive deviance in behavioral sciences is scarce, although such information could provide valuable insights into overcoming inequalities useful for developing interventions. We tested choice patterns between positive deviants, low-income individuals, and the general population. Our aim was to investigate whether positive deviants perform differently on cognitive bias tasks compared to other individuals with low incomes or the general population. The instrument was tested in multiple countries (N = 1, 722) to determine potential differentiation based on systems-level, social, and structural factors. We found no differences between income groups in the fourteen choice patterns assessed in our instrument involving cognitive biases, and only anecdotal differences in some financial behaviors. Such findings suggest that, while behavioral interventions will benefit individuals where appropriately implemented, systemic and structural factors are most critical for improving the financial well-being of entire populations. |
| Date: | 2024–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f8hyk&r=eur |
| By: | Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Bruno Coquet (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La croissance française atteindrait 0, 5 % en moyenne annuelle en 2024. Cette révision à la baisse de notre prévision de croissance par rapport à celle d'octobre 2023, qui était de 0, 8 %, s'explique principalement par un acquis de croissance pour 2024 plus faible que prévu (finalement inférieur de -0, 15 point de PIB pour 2024 par rapport à nos prévisions antérieures) et un nouveau programme d'ajustement budgétaire de 10 milliards d'euros dont l'impact sur le PIB est estimé à -0, 2 point de PIB en 2024. En 2025, la croissance française est attendue à 1, 2 % malgré les effets positifs liés à la baisse des taux (0, 2 point de PIB). Mais elle serait contrainte par les nouveaux ajustements budgétaires prévus par le gouvernement de 20 milliards d'euros en 2025 (dont l'impact sur le PIB est estimé à -0, 6 %), en plus de la suppression totale des boucliers tarifaires. L'inflation baisserait en 2024 (2, 4 % après 4, 9 % en 2023) et serait proche de la cible de 2 % en 2025. Le retournement du marché du travail se poursuit en raison de la faible croissance de l'activité et du rattrapage partiel des pertes de productivité passées, conduisant à une hausse du taux de chômage à 8, 2 % fin 2024 puis 8, 1 % fin 2025 (hors effet de la réforme du RSA). Le taux d'épargne resterait élevé en 2024 mais baisserait en 2025, soutenant la consommation malgré un pouvoir d'achat peu dynamique en 2025 après le rebond de 2024 (0, 2 % après 1 % en 2024 par unité de consommation). En raison d'une forte chute de certaines assiettes fiscales (immobilier, bénéfices des sociétés…), le déficit public a atteint 5, 5 % du PIB en 2023, soit 0, 6 point de plus que ce qui était prévu dans le projet de loi de finances pour 2024. En raison de l'extinction des mesures de soutien budgétaire exceptionnel et des nouveaux ajustements structurels attendus de 1 point de PIB sur deux ans, le déficit public baisserait à 5 % du PIB en 2024 et 4, 4 % en 2025, malgré la hausse des charges d'intérêt et la dégradation du déficit conjoncturel. Après trois ans de baisse, la dette publique, en points de PIB, repartirait à la hausse en 2024 et 2025 en raison d'une croissance nominale qui baisse avec le reflux de l'inflation. Elle atteindrait 112, 8 % du PIB en 2025, après 111, 9 % en 2024 et 110, 6 % en 2023. |
| Keywords: | comptes, perspectives, croissance française, économie française |
| Date: | 2024–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04540970&r=eur |
| By: | Thomas Benninger; Dan Devlin; Eduardo Camero Godinez; Nate Vernon |
| Abstract: | Mining and petroleum projects share characteristics distinguishing them from other sectors of the economy, which has led to the use of dedicated fiscal regimes for these projects. The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department uses fiscal modeling to evaluate extractive industry fiscal regimes for its member countries, and trains country officials on key modeling concepts. This paper outlines important preconditions needed for effective fiscal modeling, key evaluation metrics, and emphasizes the importance of transparent modeling practices. It then examines the modeling of commonly-used fiscal instruments and highligts where their economic impact differs, and how fiscal models can inform fiscal regime design. |
| Keywords: | Natural resource taxation; extractive industries; progressivity; economic rents; fiscal modeling; investment analysis; mining; petroleum. |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/089&r=eur |
| By: | Francesca Carapella; Jin-Wook Chang; Sebastian Infante; Melissa Leistra; Arazi Lubis; Alexandros Vardoulakis |
| Abstract: | A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a form of digital money that is denominated in the national unit of account, constitutes a direct liability of the central bank, and can be distinguished from other central bank liabilities. We examine the positive and negative implications for financial stability of a CBDC under different design options. We base our analysis on the lessons derived from historical case studies as well as on analytical frameworks useful to characterize the mechanisms through which a CBDC can affect financial stability. We further discuss various policy tools that can be employed to mitigate financial stability risks. |
| Keywords: | CBDC; Financial stability; Runs; Stablecoins; Central bank liabilities; Regulation |
| JEL: | E40 E50 G01 G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-21&r=eur |