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on Microeconomic European Issues |
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Issue of 2023‒12‒18
thirteen papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta, Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Gerard J. van den Berg (University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, IFAU Uppsala, ZEW, IZA, CEPR); Hanno Foerster (Boston College, IZA); Arne Uhlendorf (CNRS and CREST, IAB Nuremberg, DIW, IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a structural analysis of the role of job vacancy referrals (VRs) by public employment agencies in the job search behavior of unemployed individuals, incorporating institutional features of the monitoring of search behavior by the agencies. Notably, rejections of VRs may lead to sanctions (temporary benefits reductions) while workers may report sick to avoid those. We estimate models using German administrative data from social security records linked with caseworker recorded data on VRs, sick reporting and sanctions. The analysis highlights the influence of aspects of the health care system on unemployment durations. We estimate that for around 25% of unemployed workers, removing the channel that enables strategic sick reporting reduces the mean unemployment duration by 4 days. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, wage, sanctions, moral hazard, sickness absence, physician, structural estimation, counterfactual policy evaluation, unemployment duration |
| JEL: | J64 J65 C51 C54 |
| Date: | 2023–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2023-10&r=eur |
| By: | Anna Laura Baraldi (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli); Giovanni Immordino (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Erasmo Papagni (Università di Napoli Federico II); Marco Stimolo (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli) |
| Abstract: | Several studies document that women are more honest than men, so an increase in women’s political representation can be expected to improve the integrity of political institutions. However, greater honesty among politicians is an obstacle to the exercise of political influence by local criminal clans, who may respond by escalating violence. We test for this unintended consequence in Italy, exploiting an election law (Law 215/2012) whereby voters can express two preferences only if they are of different genders. Through a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the introduction of Law 215 induces an increase in the probability of attacks 0.6 times its actual mean (0.031). The implementation of an alternative design, difference-in-discontinuities, provides similar results. To delve into the mechanism driving these effects, instrumental variable estimates show that it is the increase in the share of female councilors due to Law 215/2012 that induces an increase in the probability of attacks against local politicians, independently of their gender. These results are not driven by the regions most severely plagued by mafias. Several robustness checks corroborate our findings. |
| Keywords: | Organized Crime, Violence, Gender balance laws. |
| JEL: | C25 D73 D78 I38 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:693&r=eur |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Markus Pannenberg (University of Applied Sciences Bielefeld) |
| Keywords: | Negative emotions, immigration concerns, bereavement |
| JEL: | J30 J53 K31 K42 M54 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202304&r=eur |
| By: | Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of the participation of refugees in integration programmes intended to help them gain employment. The specific programmes considered are the Competence Check programme and the Integration Year programme that were introduced in Austria around the time of the 2015 crisis, when refugees poured from the Middle East into the EU. The study is based on the fourth and fifth waves of a survey (FIMAS) of refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria in Austria, and it uses matching models to evaluate the effects on employment of participation in those two programmes. More specifically, it applies multivariate matching methods that ensure better balancing properties between the control and the treated groups. We find especially positive effects of the programmes on the employability of women, the poorly educated, younger and older age cohorts. These programmes thus seem to work specifically for those that find themselves in a more vulnerable labour market situation. |
| Keywords: | refugees, matching methods, multivariate distance matching, labour market integration, labour market policies |
| JEL: | J68 H43 C13 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:234&r=eur |
| By: | Marco Bertoni (University of Padova, IZA and NETSPAR.); Simone Chinetti (University of Naples Federico II.); Roberto Nisticò (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and IZA.) |
| Abstract: | This study leverages the Italian Jobs Act reform as a natural experiment to examine the impact of reduced employment protection on job insecurity and job mobility. The reform significantly lowered protection for open-ended contract workers in large firms hired after March 7, 2015, and introduced a sharp discontinuity in severance pay at 2-year tenure. Treated employees exhibit increased fear of job loss and higher termination rates. The higher job insecurity prompts workers in low-pay sectors and in low-quality firms to actively pursue job mobility, transitioning towards higher-paying positions. Conversely, workers in high-paying sectors respond by intensifying their efforts to secure their existing jobs. Crucially, all effects disappear for workers above the 2-year tenure threshold, when they become entitled to a 50% higher severance pay. These findings emphasize a complex trade-off behind the design of employment protection systems, as addressing early-stage insecurity with tailored social insurance may counteract upward mobility effects. |
| Keywords: | employment protection; job insecurity; job mobility; on-the-job search. |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J41 J65 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:684&r=eur |
| By: | Julia Peter (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Silke Uebelmesser (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Attitudes toward immigrants play a crucial role in voting behaviour and political decision-making. Such attitudes are shaped by individual characteristics, but the regional environment may also be important. This paper examines how individual attitudes toward immigrants are related to the economic, political, and social environment. We use individual-level data based on a large-scale representative survey and district-level administrative data. Specifically, we examine regional variation in economic growth, voting patterns, and characteristics of the immigrant population and their relation to beliefs about and attitudes toward immigrants. We also use an information experiment in which information about the actual characteristics of the immigrant population in Germany is provided and assess its impact on attitudes toward immigrants in the regional context. Our results suggest that the impact of the environment - over and above individual characteristics - is small and depends on the type of attitude. |
| Keywords: | attitudes, immigrants, regional determinants, economic concerns, policy preferences |
| JEL: | C90 D83 F22 J15 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2023-020&r=eur |
| By: | Adrian Chadi (University of Konstanz and IZA, Bonn); Lazlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the EU, University of Trier, IZA Bonn and CESifo Muenchen) |
| Abstract: | Do trade unions benefit from economic crises by attracting new members among workers concerned about job security? To address this question, we provide a comprehensive empirical investigation based on panel data from Germany, where workers individually decide on their membership. We analyse whether exogenously manipulated perceptions of job insecurity encourage individuals to join a union. Firm-level workforce reductions serve as the first trigger of perceived job insecurity. Regional unemployment rates represent a second source of exogenous variation. Third, we propose a novel identification approach based on plant-closureinduced job losses of other workers in the same region. In each case, we exploit the longitudinal nature of the data to analyse the implications of changes in labour market conditions for changes in union membership using an instrumental-variable approach. We consistently find that perceived job insecurity, as triggered by labour market turmoil, increases the likelihood of individual union membership. Analysing data on media coverage about downsizing in a complementary investigation, we add further evidence to the notion of trade unions as beneficiaries of labour market crises. Finally, we consider workers who lose their jobs and find no evidence of adverse effects on union membership among those directly affected by the labour market situation. |
| Keywords: | Job security, German Socio-Economic Panel, Workforce reduction, Trade union membership, Regional labour markets, Media coverage |
| JEL: | D84 J51 J63 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202302&r=eur |
| By: | Gerard J. van den Berg (University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, IFAU Uppsala, ZEW, IZA, CEPR); Max Kunaschk (IAB Nuremberg); Julia Lang (IAB Nuremberg); Gesine Stephan (IAB Nuremberg, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Arne Uhlendorf (CNRS and CREST, IAB Nuremberg, DIW, IZA) |
| Abstract: | Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider whether combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, expectations, prediction, random forest, unemployment insurance, information |
| JEL: | J64 J65 C55 C53 C41 C21 |
| Date: | 2023–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2023-09&r=eur |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena; Lepinteur, Anthony; Cnossen, Femke |
| Abstract: | Using survey data from 20 European countries, we construct novel worker-level indices of routine, abstract, social, and physical tasks across 20 European countries, which we combine with industry-level robotization exposure. Our conceptual framework builds on the insight that robotization simultaneously replaces, creates, and modifies workers' tasks and studies how these forces impact workers' job content. We rely on instrumental variable techniques and show that robotization reduces physically demanding activities. Yet, this reduction in manual work does not coincide with a shift to more challenging and interesting tasks. Instead, robotization makes workers' tasks more routine, while diminishing the opportunities for cognitively challenging work and human contact. The adverse impact of robotization on social tasks is particularly pronounced for highly skilled and educated workers. Our study offers a unique worker-centric viewpoint on the interplay between technology and tasks, highlighting nuances that macro-level indicators overlook. As such, it sheds light on the mechanisms underpinning the impact of robotization on labor markets. |
| Keywords: | robotization, technological change, worker-level data, tasks |
| JEL: | J01 J30 J32 J81 I30 I31 M50 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1350&r=eur |
| By: | Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Refugees are more likely to develop mental diseases as most of them have been exposed to potentially traumatic events and fundamental stressors in their home countries, during migration and after resettling in the host countries. This diminishes their prospects for social and economic integration, which also may have detrimental effects on their mental health. We examine the prevalence of mental disorders in the refugee population from Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Syria who arrived in Austria recently, drawing on data from four waves of the FIMAS refugee survey project. Interviews were conducted between December 2017 and April 2022 in Austria, with a specific focus on Vienna, Salzburg, Graz, Linz and Innsbruck. We found a high share of refugees (31% in 2017/2018, declining to 26% in 2022) who showed moderate or severe levels of mental distress. Women were found to have a significantly higher risk of mental illness. We also investigate the effects of mediators on mental health, applying pooled and panel regression model. A positive association was found, for example, in the cases of discrimination experienced in Austria and obviously potentially traumatic events experienced during migration. Negative correlations were detected for certain mitigating factors that foster resilience, such as proficiency in the German language, living in the same household with one’s partner and children, being employed, having more supportive relationships, and being more satisfied with the housing situation. |
| Keywords: | refugees, mental health, social integration, labour market integration, longitudinal study |
| JEL: | I10 J15 F22 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:233&r=eur |
| By: | Contini, Dalit (University of Torino); Di Tommaso, Maria Laura (University of Torino); Maccagnan, Anna (University of Torino); Mendolia, Silvia (Frisch Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the gendered choice of high school in the Italian context, where children are tracked at age 14 and are free to choose the type of school, with no binding teacher recommendation or ability restriction. It is therefore a context in which preferences, however influenced by different factors, are freely expressed, without any institutional constraints imposed on the decision-making process. Previous literature has mainly analysed gendered educational choices by focusing on the field at later stages in life. The transition from lower secondary to upper secondary school is particularly relevant for children who do not go on to university and can help to understand gender segregation in low and middle-level occupations. We analyse the role of school performance in mathematics and Italian (teacher grades and standardized test scores), the position in the class ranking, the comparative advantage in one subject and find that, while school performance hardly explains the gender gap for the children with low educated parents, it explains part of the gender gap observed for children from more advantaged backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, high school choices, school performance, STEM fields |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16584&r=eur |
| By: | Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Oosterbeek, Hessel (University of Amsterdam); Sovago, Sandor (University of Groningen); van der Klaauw, Bas (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We combine data from the Amsterdam secondary-school match with register data and survey data to estimate the effects of not being assigned to one's first-ranked school on academic outcomes and on a wide range of other outcomes. For identification we use that secondary-school assignment in Amsterdam is based on the deferred acceptance mechanism with ties broken by lottery numbers. Losing the admission lottery for one's first-ranked school affects the characteristics of the assigned school, the home-school distance and the characteristics of teachers and peers. Despite the different school environment, we find no negative effects on academic outcomes, nor on any other outcome, including: time on homework, help with homework, attitudes towards school, awareness of parents, behavior inside school, behavior outside school, school satisfaction, civic engagement, having friends, and students' personality. It seems therefore that the concerns that parents of lottery losers express about their children's school assignment are based on the characteristics of schools, teachers and peers and not on academic or non-academic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | secondary school choice, non-academic outcomes, admission lotteries |
| JEL: | I21 I24 C26 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16591&r=eur |
| By: | Zuchuat, Jeremy (University of Lausanne); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne); Osikominu, Aderonke (University of Hohenheim); Pesaresi, Lorenzo (University of Zurich); Zweimüller, Josef (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | The job finding rate declines with the duration of unemployment. While this is a well established fact, the reasons are still disputed. We use monthly search diaries from Swiss public employment offices to shed new light on this issue. Search diaries record all applications sent by job seekers, including the outcome of each application – whether the employer followed up with a job interview and a job offer. Based on more than 600, 000 applications sent by 15, 000 job seekers, we find that job applications and job interviews decrease, but job offers (after an interview) increase with duration. A model with statistical discrimination by firms and learning from search outcomes by workers replicates these empirical duration patterns closely. The structurally estimated model predicts that 55 percent of the decline in the job finding rate is due to "true" duration dependence, while the remaining 45 percent is due to dynamic selection of the unemployment pool. We also discuss further drivers of the observed duration patterns, such as human capital depreciation, stock-flow matching, depletion of one's personal network, and changes in application targeting or quality. |
| Keywords: | job search, job finding, duration dependence, dynamic selection, search effort, job application, callback, job interview, job offer |
| JEL: | J24 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16602&r=eur |