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on Microeconomic European Issues |
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Issue of 2021‒12‒20
29 papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Bonacini, Luca; Murat, Marina |
| Abstract: | By using PISA 2018 data, we investigate the associations between digital divides and educational inequalities in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. We find strong and significant cognitive losses of students lacking the resources needed to learn remotely; everything else given, they range from 25 to 70 percent of a school year. In Germany, Italy and France, where tracking between schools starts earlier, digital gaps are strongly associated with school types. They are also wider in urban areas, where the use of ICT resources is more widespread. Grades repetition in Spain is associated with the digital divide, while family characteristics matter in the United Kingdom. In the longer run, students who cannot learn remotely are more likely to repeat grades and end their education early, especially where grades repetition is more common: Spain, Germany, and Italy. Education policies should be designed accordingly. |
| Keywords: | Digital divide,education inequalities,educational systems,remote learning,PI |
| JEL: | I21 I24 H52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:679r&r= |
| By: | Marco Caliendo (University of Potsdam, IZA, DIW, IAB); Linda Wittbrodt (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in- difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to -18%, while for the mean it was smaller (-11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage, Gender Wage Gap, Regional Bite |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J38 J71 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:40&r= |
| By: | Isabel Cavalli (Université Côte d'Azur, France; CNRS, GREDEG; Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Italy); Charlie Joyez (Université Côte d'Azur, France; CNRS, GREDEG) |
| Abstract: | Innovation is a dynamic process whose complexity lies in networks among heterogeneous actors, with collaboration often ending in patent co-ownership. Governments introduced many policies to redefine the role of universities in research collaboration once acknowledging their value in scientific knowledge. This paper explores how patent co-ownership evolved in France after decisive policy interventions (1999, 2006, 2007). Using French copatent data (1978-2018), we first employ Network Analysis to capture the evolution of centrality of French Universities. We then apply a Dif-in-Dif, incorporating a Propensity Score Matching (PSM), to investigate the potential causal relationship between policy interventions and the evolution of universities' centrality, contrasting with with French Public Research Organizations as well as German and Italian universities. Our results point to the increasing centrality gained by French universities in patenting co-ownership over the years and its essential role, as an innovator actor, in the French innovation system. Although the Innovation Act (1999) positively impacted their centrality, the impact of 2006-on legislation is either null or even negative, offsetting the initial trend. |
| Keywords: | Innovation dynamics, Universities, Collaborative Patents, Network centrality, treatment effect |
| JEL: | C54 D85 O32 O33 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-38&r= |
| By: | Vadean, Florin; Saloniki, Eirini |
| Abstract: | Staff turnover in the long-term care (LTC) sector in England is perceived to be relatively high. Most job leavers do not leave the sector, but rather move to other LTC employers. Nevertheless, there are concerns that the high 'churn' has a negative impact on continuity and quality of care, care providers' recruitment and training costs, and the remaining staff workload and motivation. Using a large employer-employee panel dataset, this study aimed to provide quantitative evidence on the drivers of LTC staff retention and sick leave in England, with a focus on job quality. After controlling for observed individual, organisational and local market characteristics as well as unobserved worker and employer heterogeneity, we found that, everything else being equal, wages and employment conditions (i.e. full time contracts and contracts with guaranteed working hours) significantly improve staff retention. The wage effect was significantly underestimated when not controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings show that improving pay and employment conditions for care staff employed by independent providers would reduce the staff turnover in LTC. We also found that, everything else being equal, the amount of sick leave was strongly associated with employment in publicly owned care establishments, most likely due to the relatively more generous sick leave terms they offer. |
| Keywords: | job separation,long-term care,job quality,sick leave,England |
| JEL: | C23 J31 J63 J81 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:994&r= |
| By: | Carlo Cambini; Elena Grinza; Lorien Sabatino |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of ultra-fast broadband (UFB) infrastructures on the total factor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity of firms. We use unique balanced panel data for the 2013-2019 period on incorporated firms in Italy. Using the geographical location of the firms, we match firm data with municipality-level information on the diffusion of UFB, which started in 2015 in Italy. We derive consistent firm-level TFP estimates by adopting a version of the Ackerberg et al.’s (2015) method, which also accounts for firm fixed effects. We then assess the impact of UFB on productivity and deal with the endogeneity of UFB by exploiting the physical distance between each municipality and the closest backbone node. Our results show an overall positive impact of UFB on productivity. Services companies benefit the most from advanced broadband technologies, as do firms located in the North-West and South of Italy. We further decompose the impact of full-fiber networks (FTTH) from mixed copper-fiber connections (FTTC) and find that FTTH networks significantly contribute to enhancing firm productivity. Finally, by exploiting Labor Force Survey data, we provide suggestive evidence that productivity increases from UFB might be related to structural changes at the workforce level. |
| Keywords: | Ultra-fast broadband (UFB); fiber-based networks; fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) |
| JEL: | L96 D24 D22 |
| Date: | 2021–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/334687&r= |
| By: | Fisher, Jack (London School of Economics); Gavazza, Alessandro (London School of Economics); Liu, Lu (Imperial College Business School); Ramadorai, Tarun (Imperial College Business School); Tripathy, Jagdish (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Evidence from a range of countries reveals that household inaction in mortgage refinancing can be pervasive despite financial incentives to take action. Inactive households may implicitly cross-subsidise active households, allowing competitive lenders to set lower average mortgage rates. To provide a money-metric assessment of cross-subsidies, we construct a model of household refinancing and structurally estimate it on rich administrative data on the stock of loans in the UK mortgage market in June 2015. We estimate sizeable cross-subsidies during this sample period, from relatively poorer households and those located in less-wealthy areas towards richer households and those located in wealthier areas. The findings over this sample period highlight how the design of household finance markets can contribute to wealth inequality. Estimated cross-subsidies may differ in more recent periods given changes in the UK mortgage market since 2015. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; refinancing; cross-subsidies; wealth inequality; household inaction; household finance |
| JEL: | D63 G21 L51 N20 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0948&r= |
| By: | NARAZANI Edlira (European Commission - JRC); COLOMBINO Ugo; PALMA FERNANDEZ Bianey (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes EUROLAB, a labour supply-demand microsimulation model that relies on EUROMOD, the static microsimulation model for the European Union countries. EUROLAB is built on a multidimensional discrete choice model of labour supply and accounts for involuntary unemployment. The model estimates individual changes in supplied hours of work and participation as a reaction to a hypothetical or real tax transfer reform, often referred to in the literature as “second-order” effects. Furthermore, the model allows for the demand-side effects of a labour market that, depending on how elastic it is, would lead to a different labour supply when the market reaches its equilibrium. The model is unique in covering 27 countries under the same specification of preferences, opportunity set representation and the same concept of income and working hours. We illustrate the usefulness of the model by showing several examples of EUROLAB, using both the one-dimensional and multidimensional versions. Potential extensions of the model are also discussed in the paper. |
| Keywords: | Behavioural Models, Discrete Choice Modelling, Labour supply, Labour market equilibrium |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202115&r= |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena; Nikolaev, Boris; Boudreaux, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We examine the moderating role of being a supervisor for meaning and autonomy of self-employed and employed workers. We rely on regression analysis applied after entropy balancing based on a nationally representative dataset of over 80,000 individuals in 30 European countries for 2005, 2010, and 2015. We find that being a self-employed supervisor is correlated with more work meaningfulness and autonomy compared with being a salaried supervisor working for an employer. Wage supervisors and self-employed supervisors experience similar stress levels and have similar earnings, though selfemployed supervisors work longer hours. Moreover, solo entrepreneurs experience slightly less work meaningfulness, but more autonomy compared with self-employed supervisors. This may be explained by the fact that solo entrepreneurs earn less but have less stress and shorter working hours than selfemployed supervisors. |
| Keywords: | self-employment,supervisors,autonomy,work meaningfulness |
| JEL: | I31 L26 M10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:993&r= |
| By: | Gibbons, Stephen; Scrutinio, Vincenzo; Telhaj, Shqiponja |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the understanding of the causal relationship between teacher turnover and student performance. We extend this research by examining the mechanisms through which turnover affects student learning, and by providing evidence on how schools respond to mitigate the disruptive effects of turnover. Using administrative data covering all state-school, age-16 students and their teachers in England, we find that a higher teacher entry rate has a small but significant negative effect on students’ final qualifications from compulsory-age schooling. This is the first study to document that the lack of school-specific human capital in incoming teachers is the main mechanism through which turnover disrupts student performance. We also find evidence that schools mitigate the effects of turnover by assigning new teachers away from high-risk student grades. |
| Keywords: | teachers; turnover; student attainment; schools; UKRI block grant |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112723&r= |
| By: | Valentina Michelangeli; José-Luis Peydró; Enrico Sette |
| Abstract: | We identify the relative importance for bank lending of borrower (demand-side) versus bank (supply-side) factors. We submit thousands of fictitious mortgage applications, changing one borrower-level factor at time, to the major Italian online mortgage platform. Each application goes to all banks. Borrower and bank factors are equally strong in causing and explaining loan acceptance. For pricing, borrower factors are instead stronger. Moreover, banks supplying less credit accept riskier borrowers. Exploiting the administrative credit register, there is borrower-lender assortative matching, and the bank-level strength measure estimated on the experimental data is associated to credit supply and risk-taking to real firms. |
| Keywords: | credit; banks; mortgages; SMEs; risk-taking. |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E51 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1809&r= |
| By: | Cascavilla, Alessandro; Caferra, Rocco; Morone, Andrea |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of e-learning during the COVID-19 analyzing a sample of Italian university students. In particular, we point out how the subjective distance learning evaluation is determined according to: i) students’ profile and different proxies of monetary incentives favoring distance learning, ii) pro-environmental preferences and iii) socio-economic concerns in the light of potential unequal access to digital learning resources. Our results show prominent the impact that green preferences have in fostering a post COVID-19 e-learning era, while some doubts on the potential future economic inequalities generated by an unequal access to educational resources are raised. From here, different policy implications are proposed to balance the pros and cons of distance learning, considering both social, financial, and technological factors. |
| Keywords: | distance learning, pro-environmental attitude; economic inequality; public policy |
| JEL: | D6 H8 I24 O44 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110702&r= |
| By: | Silvan Has (UCL Social Research Institute); Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); John Jerrim (UCL Social Research Institute); Nikki Shure (UCL Social Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Young people's decision making process to go to university might depend on both family background and character traits. In this study, we research the association between long-term socio-economic status (SES) during adolescence, economic preferences such as risk attitudes and time preferences, and teenagers' expectations of going to university. Using data on British teenagers from the Millennium Cohort Study we find that higher SES is associated with higher educational expectations. Furthermore, more patient teenagers think it more likely for them to go to university. However, risk attitudes are not associated with educational expectations. All results are robust to including rich sets of background variables including cognitive measures and school grades. This implies that for the British education system to become more meritocratic and to improve intergenerational mobility, future policies should target the SES gap in educational expectations. Furthermore, improving patience in young people could be a channel through which educational policy helps improve university attendance. |
| Keywords: | Human capital formation; Educational investment; Risk preferences; Time preferences; Socio-economic status. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:21-11&r= |
| By: | Vitalijs Jascisens (HSE University); Anna Zasova (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of tying social security benefits to declared wages on firm-worker collusion and strategic income reporting before the benefit entitlement. We use administrative data from Latvia covering the entire working population over a 15-year period from 1996 to 2010 to study generous parental benefits, which depend on the reported wage in the time period before the childbirth. Our analysis delivers three principal results. First, we observe a sharp increase in the wage during the time period taken into account to calculate parental benefits, and interpret the obtained result as a collusive legalization of previously unreported income with an aim to increase the future benefit. Depending on the specification, we conclude that during this period the wage on average increases by 5.4%-7.5%. Second, obtained effects are highly heterogeneous. We find that the wage growth is much higher in small firms, where it is presumably easier to sustain collusion between employees and employers. Finally, we demonstrate that legalization of wages is temporary and lasts only until the end of the period taken into account to calculate parental benefits. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:rpaper:9&r= |
| By: | Martin Hackmann (UCLA, NBER, and CESifo); Joerg Heining (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt-und Berufsforschung (IAB)); Roman Klimke (Harvard University); Maria Polyakova (Stanford University, NBER and CESifo); Holger Seibert (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt-und Berufsforschung (IAB)) |
| Abstract: | Arrow (1963) hypothesized that demand-side moral hazard induced by health insurance leads to supply-side expansions in healthcare markets. Capturing these effects empirically has been challenging, as non-marginal insurance expansions are rare and detailed data on healthcare labor and capital is sparse. We combine administrative labor market data with the geographic variation in the rollout of a universal insurance program—the introduction of long-term care (LTC) insurance in Germany in 1995—to document a substantial expansion of the inpatient LTC labor market in response to insurance expansion. A 10 percentage point expansion in the share of insured elderly leads to 0.05 (7%) more inpatient LTC firms and four (13%) more workers per 1,000 elderly in Germany. Wages did not rise, but the quality of newly hired workers declined. We find suggestive evidence of a reduction in old-age mortality. Using a machine learning algorithm, we characterize counterfactual labor market biographies of potential inpatient LTC hires, finding that the reform moved workers into LTC jobs from unemployment and out of the labor force rather than from other sectors of the economy. We estimate that employing these additional workers in LTC is socially efficient if patients value the care provided by these workers at least at 25% of the market price for care. We show conceptually that, in the spirit of Harberger (1971), in a second-best equilibrium in which supply-side labor markets do not clear at perfectly competitive wages, subsidies for healthcare consumption along with the associated demand-side moral hazard can be welfare-enhancing. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, universal insurance expansion, Germany, LTC labor market, second-best efficiency |
| JEL: | D61 I11 I13 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-357&r= |
| By: | Bindler, Anna (University of Colonge); Hjalmarsson, Randi (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Mitrut, Andreea (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Many rights are conferred on Dutch youth at ages 16 and 18. Using national register data for all reported victimizations, we find sharp and discontinuous increases in victimization rates at these ages: about 13% for both genders at 16 and 9% (15%) for males (females) at 18. These results are comparable across subsamples (based on socio-economic and neighborhood characteristics) with different baseline victimization risks. We assess potential mechanisms using data on offense location, cross-cohort variation in the minimum legal drinking age driven by a 2014 reform, and survey data of alcohol/drug consumption and mobility behaviors. We conclude that the bundle of access to weak alcohol, bars/clubs and smoking increases victimization at 16 and that age 18 rights (hard alcohol, marijuana coffee shops) exacerbate this risk; vehicle access does not play an important role. Finally, we do not find systematic spillover effects onto individuals who have not yet received these rights. |
| Keywords: | victimization; crime; youth; youth protection laws; alcohol; inequality; RDD |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J13 K36 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0817&r= |
| By: | Filandri, Marianna; Pacelli, Lia; Trentini, Francesco (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In recent years the number of young individuals not in employment, education nor training has been rising alarmingly. This condition may have long-lasting social and economic consequences and the ability to profile the most resilient types gives important information on more effective interventions for the most fragile ones. We analyse the trajectories of young Europeans in and out of the NEET condition in the decade following the financial crisis. We link the trajectories to pre-crisis structural features of selected institutions at the country level as well as to pre-crisis economic growth,institutions and policies often mentioned as able to facilitate the employment of young people. We take advantage of the longitudinal nature of the EU-SILC rotating panel to identify specific patterns in and out of the NEET condition, and we estimate a multilevel model to assess the impact of macrovariables on individual trajectories. Main results point to the positive effect of family support policies, training and of economic growth in deceasing the probability of being NEET for a very long period of time. Less so regarding the probability of churning in and out of NEET. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202122&r= |
| By: | Dughera, Stefano; Quatraro,Francesco; Ricci,Andrea; Vittori,Claudia (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of temporary workers on innovation both theoretically and empirically. First, we develop a model where a representative firm chooses between different types of projects (routine vs innovative) and different types of labor contracts (temporary vs permanent). In doing so, it considers the effect of these different strategies on the workers’ incentives to invest in firm-specific skills. Our key finding is that firms offering temporary contracts are less likely to invest in innovative projects, and that this is effect is stronger in industries characterized by a “garage-business” innovation regime. Second, we test our hypotheses using firm-level data on employment composition and patent filing. Consistently with our theoretical predictions, we find that temporary workers are detrimental to innovation, and that this effect is mitigated by the concentration of patent-filing at the industry-level. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202115&r= |
| By: | Auer, Daniel; Götz, Lilia |
| Abstract: | Whether or not immigration negatively affects the labor market outcomes of natives is an ongoing debate. One of the challenges for empirical evidence is the simultaneity of supply- and demand-side effects. To isolate the demand side, we focus on recent refugees in Germany who are exogenously allocated to districts and largely excluded from the labor market. Using panel data of all German districts between 2010 and 2018 and leveraging variation in the local stock of asylum seekers, we find that 1,000 asylum seekers create 267 jobs on average in a district. This growth effect is mainly driven by a demand for additional labor in service, public administration, and social work. As a consequence, we also observe a significant reduction in the local unemployment rate when more refugees arrive. The dynamic panel data estimates are robust to various sensitivity checks and two different instrumental variable approaches. Quantifying the demand side of immigration adds to our understanding of local labor market dynamics in an increasingly mobile world. |
| Keywords: | labor demand,refugee migration,employment growth,unemployment |
| JEL: | J21 J23 O15 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:989&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Gavoille (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga)and Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS)); Anna Zasova (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS)) |
| Abstract: | The labor markets of many transition countries are characterized by two features: a spike at the minimum wage in wage distribution and widespread use of so-called envelope wages, i.e., non-declared cash coming in addition to the official wage. In this paper, we present a body of suggestive evidence highlighting the prevalence of wage underreporting among minimum wage earners. We study two minimum wage hikes implemented in Latvia in 2014 and 2015, and show that (i) minimum wage employees are more likely to survive these minimum wage hikes than employees earning slightly more, and (ii) minimum wage employees are more likely to switch to part-time work within the same firm than their peers earning slightly more. These effects are present in the sample of small (more prone to tax evasion) firms and are not found in the sample of big (less prone to tax evasion) firms. In addition, we show that minimum wage earners switching from employment in a small to a big firm enjoy a significantly larger wage gain than employees earning slightly more. Taken together, these results are consistent with tax evaders being overrepresented among minimum wage earners and are hard to rationalize otherwise. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:rpaper:7&r= |
| By: | Sandner, Malte (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Patzina, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Anger, Silke (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Bamberg); Bernhard, Sarah (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dietrich, Hans (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This study examines the immediate and intermediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the well-being of two high school graduation cohorts (2020 and 2021). We also investigate how changes in well-being at the transition to post-secondary education affect educational plans and outcomes. Our unique panel data contain prospective survey information on three dimensions of well-being: mental health problems, self-rated health, and life satisfaction for 3,697 students. Data is collected several months before (fall 2019), shortly before and soon after (spring 2020), and several months after (fall/winter 2020/21) the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying difference-in-differences designs, random effect growth curve models, and linear regression models, we find that school closures had a positive immediate effect on students’ well-being. Over the course of the pandemic, however, well-being strongly declined, mainly concentrated among the 2021 graduation cohort. Finally, we show that a strong decline in mental health is associated with changes in educational and career plans and transition outcomes. As adverse life experiences in adolescence are likely to accumulate over the life course, this study is the first to exhibit potential long-lasting negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on education and careers of young individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | I18 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202118&r= |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti; Virtanen, Hanna |
| Abstract: | Abstract We study the earnings and employment effects of enrollment in formal adult education in Finland using a combination of matching and panel data methods. We also conduct cost-benefit analyses. The results show that adult education increases earnings and employment both in secondary and higher education, but the magnitude depends on the original level of education. The earnings and employment effects are the largest for the less educated group (those with only compulsory education). For those already having a degree from higher education, the employment and earnings effects are small. There is substantial heterogeneity behind the average effects. The earning gains differ by field and type of education both in secondary and higher education. Cost-benefit analysis shows that at the individual level, the benefits exceed the costs for those with compulsory and secondary education but not for those with higher education. When the societal costs and benefits are considered, we find that the benefits exceed the costs mostly when the individuals upgrade their level of education and are young enough. The results suggest that public investments in adult education should be carefully targeted. This could for example mean targeting individuals who upgrade their qualifications. |
| Keywords: | Adult education, Employment, Earnings |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:91&r= |
| By: | Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. |
| Abstract: | We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 percent of aggregate fluctuations. JEL Classification: E32, D84, E71 |
| Keywords: | business cycle, news, noise, propensity score matching, survey data |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212621&r= |
| By: | Simon Bruhn (Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany); Thomas Grebel (Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS; OFCE, SciencesPo; SKEMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the typical practice of performing growth decompositions based on log-transformed productivity values induces fallacious conclusions: using logs may lead to an inaccurate aggregate growth rate, an inaccurate description of the microsources of aggregate growth, or both. We identify the mathematical sources of this log-induced fallacy in decomposition and analytically demonstrate the questionable reliability of log results. Using firm-level data from the French manufacturing sector during the 2009-2018 period, we empirically show that the magnitude of the log-induced distortions is substantial. Depending on the definition of accurate log measures, we find that around 60-80% of four-digit industry results are prone to mismeasurement. We further find significant correlations of this mismeasurement with commonly deployed industry characteristics, indicating, among other things, that less competitive industries are more prone to log distortions. Evidently, these correlations also affect the validity of studies that investigate the role of industry characteristics in productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | productivity decomposition, growth, log approximation, geometric mean, arithmetic mean |
| JEL: | C18 L22 L25 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-39&r= |
| By: | Kate Laffan (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | A reduction in the demand for meat and a shift to more plant-based consumption has the potential to significantly enhance the sustainability and health of many people's diets. In the current work, I examine contextual predictors of meat consumption in nationally representative nutrition surveys from three Western European Counties: Switzerland, France and the Netherlands. More specifically, I examine whether the contextual factors - the meal type, the day of the week and the location of the food consumption occasion - are predictive of whether meat is consumed. The results indicate that all three factors are linked to meat consumption with the patterns varying substantially across the different case study countries and the gender of the consumer. The results emphasise the importance of examining contextual correlates when looking to understand and influence meat consumption, while also highlighting important differences across both cultures and people. |
| Date: | 2021–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202113&r= |
| By: | Stefano Boscolo; Giovanni Gallo |
| Abstract: | Social policies aim to alleviate poverty and income inequality, providing cash benefits and services to households facing economic difficulties. Nonetheless, it is well known that a relevant portion of eligible households do not claim such policies. Through an original methodology based on ISEE (Indicatore della Situazione Economica Equivalente) administrative records, this paper offers the first empirical evidence on the non-take-up of social policies in Italy. We show that roughly 1.1 million of poor households did not file the ISEE declaration in 2018, a necessary step to claim most means-tested cash benefits and services. Based on multinomial logit regressions, results show that younger and larger households are more inclined to claim social policies. In contrast, households headed by a female or migrant tend to report severe levels of non-take-up, as do those living in the islands. |
| Keywords: | non-take-up; social policies, poverty, administrative records, welfare system |
| JEL: | C15 I30 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:cappmo:0174&r= |
| By: | Bell, Brian; Pedemonte, Simone; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | We exploit the large rise in relative performance awards in the United Kingdom over the last two decades to investigate whether these contracts improve the alignment between CEO pay and firm performance. We first document that corporate governance appears to be stronger when institutional ownership is greater. Then, using hand-collected data from annual reports on explicit contracts, we show that (1) CEO pay still responds more to increases in the firms' stock performance than to decreases, and, importantly, this asymmetry is stronger when corporate governance is weak as measured by low institutional ownership; and (2) "pay for luck"persists as remuneration increases with random positive shocks, even when the CEO has equity awards that explicitly condition on firm performance relative to peer firms in the same sector. A major reason why relative performance contracts do not eliminate pay for luck is that CEOs who fail to meet the terms of their past performance awards are able to obtain more generous new equity rewards in the future in weakly governed firms. We show the mechanism operates both through the quantum of shares and the structure of new contracts. These findings suggest that reforms to the formal structure of CEO pay contracts are unlikely to align incentives in the absence of strong corporate governance. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112749&r= |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Bonacini, Luca; Murat, Marina |
| Abstract: | We investigate the gender gap in Economics among bachelor's and master's grad- uates in Italy between 2010 and 2019. First we establish that being female exerts a negative impact on the choice to major in Economics: at the bachelor level, only 73 women graduate in Economics for every 100 men, with the mathematical con- tent of high school curricula as the key driver of the effect and a persistence of the gap at the master level. Second, within a full menu of major choices, Economics displays the largest gap, followed by STEM and then Business Economics. Third, decomposition analyses expose a unique role for the math background in driving the Economics gender gap relative to other fields. Fourth, a triple difference analysis of a high school reform shows that an increase in the math content of traditionally low math curricula caused an increase in the Economics gender gap among treated students. |
| Keywords: | Education Gender Gap,Economics,Higher Education,Business Economics,Major Choice,Major Switching,Mathematics,Stereotypes |
| JEL: | A22 I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:995&r= |
| By: | Miroslava Federicova |
| Abstract: | Early tracking school systems, which stream student by ability, are considered a trigger of widening inequality in education. However, more homogenous class composition resulting from ability tracking seem to improve efficiency of teaching and learning. Literature on peer effects shows contradictory findings about these two counteracting effects. This paper contributes to the discussion of the efficacy of ability tracking by examining the effects of the outflow of high-ability students after primary education on the long-term educational outcomes and behaviour of their peers who remain in regular classes. Exploiting a 2009 school reform in Slovakia which postponed tracking by one year, we show that the outflow of high-performing peers results in a weak negative longrun effect on non-tracked student’s math scores and late arrivals at school, and more persistent negative effects on out-of-school study time. |
| Keywords: | early-tracking school system; peer effects; gender effects; Slovak school reform; |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp709&r= |
| By: | Antonio Marsi; Emanuela Randon |
| Abstract: | Tourist taxes represent one of the principal sources of revenue for a number of local authorities. Using a dataset of more than 300 thousands reviews on TripAdvisor, we analyze the effect of tourist taxes on online ratings posted by hotel costumers. Online ratings are strategic variables for the competitiveness of hotels and local destinations and so the assessment of the impact of tourist taxes on online reviews is important to design suitable strategies and policies both for firms and local municipalities. We show that the share of complaints about the tax increases with the tax rate, but the relationship gets weaker as the hotel quality increases, suggesting that low-quality costumers are more sensitive to tax increases. Tax mentioning reviews have on average a 20% lower rating and this difference becomes smaller and not significant for high quality hotels. We disentangle the different sources of complaining, finding that the lack of information and the cash payments weight more negatively on the average rating (respectively less 27% and 21%). Using a random-effects logit model we show that what matters for costumers is the percentage tax on the room price and not the absolute amount of the legal tax rates based on the hotel stars. This effect is present only for hotel stays with an average double room price under 100 Euros. Our results provide public authorities with useful suggestions to change the actual tax system by setting the tourist tax as an ad valorem tax on room price and assessing optimal tax rates accordingly to their incidence on the price of the stay. |
| JEL: | D12 H21 H22 L83 Z3 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1168&r= |