nep-eur New Economics Papers
on Microeconomic European Issues
Issue of 2021‒10‒04
33 papers chosen by
Giuseppe Marotta
Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia

  1. Comparing Institutional Textures between Germany and Italy with LAU level data By Nadia von Jacobi
  2. Cross-country spillovers of renewable energy promotion: The case of Germany By Abrell, Jan; Kosch, Mirjam
  3. University graduates’ job-education mismatches in the Spanish labour market By Pérez Navarro, Marco Aurelio
  4. Retrospective causal inference via matrix completion, with an evaluation of the effect of European integration on cross-border employment By Jason Poulos; Andrea Albanese; Andrea Mercatanti; Fan Li
  5. Intended and unintended effects of public incentives for innovation. Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy By Giovanni Mellace; Marco Ventura
  6. Impact of Later Retirement on Mortality: Evidence from France By Antoine Bozio; Clémentine Garrouste; Elsa Perdrix
  7. Long‐term Effects of Hospital Deliveries By Fischer, Martin; Karlsson, Martin; Prodromidis, Nikolaos
  8. Parents can tell! Evidence on classroom quality differences in German primary schools By Araujo P., Maria Daniela; Quis, Johanna Sophie
  9. Intergenerational educational mobility – the role of non-cognitive skills By Anna Adamecz-Völgyi; Morag Henderson; Nikki Shure
  10. Financing and advising early stage startups: The effect of angel investor subsidies By Berger, Marius; Gottschalk, Sandra
  11. A wealth tax at work By Thor O. Thoresen; Marius A. K. Ring; Odd E. Nygård; Jon Epland
  12. The legacy of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration By Lange, Martin
  13. Never too late? Returning to university after completing secondary education as adults By Karlsson, Linn
  14. Gender differences in re-contesting decisions: New evidence from French municipal elections By Julieta Peveri; Marc Sangnier
  15. Run, graduate, run: Internationally mobile students’ reactions to changing political landscapes in Europe By Reinhard Weisser
  16. Centralized procurement and delivery times: Evidence from a natural experiment in Italy By Clark, Robert; Coviello, Decio; de Leverano, Adriano
  17. The effects of expanding the generosity of statutory sick leave insurance: the case of a French reform By Mohamed Ali Ben Halima; Malik Koubi
  18. Are We Overdiagnosing Mental Illnesses? Evidence from Randomly Assigned Doctors By Marieke Bos; Andrew Hertzberg; Andres Liberman
  19. The struggle of small firms to retain high-skill workers: Job duration and importance of knowledge intensity By Hugo Castro-Silva; Francisco Lima
  20. Gender differences in admission scores and first-year university achievement By Karlsson, Linn; Wikström, Magnus
  21. Can repeated surveys reveal the variation of the value of travel time over time? By Börjesson, Maria; Kouwenhoven, Marco; de Jong , Gerard; Daly , Andrew
  22. Behind the Italian Regional Divide: An Economic Fitness and Complexity Perspective By Angelica Sbardella; Andrea Zaccaria; Luciano Pietronero; Pasquale Scaramozzino
  23. How do workers adjust when firms adopt new technologies? By Genz, Sabrina; Gregory, Terry; Janser, Markus; Lehmer, Florian; Matthes, Britta
  24. Have European Banks left tax haven? Evidence from country-by-counry data By Giulia Aliprandi; Mona Baraké; Paul-Emmanuel Chouc
  25. Working the Weight Out? Working Time Reduction and Overweight By Costa-Font, J.;; Saenz de Miera Juarez, B.
  26. Internal labor markets. A worker flow approach By Ingrid Huitfeldt; Andreas R. Kostøl; Jan Nimczik; Andrea Weber
  27. Maternal Age and Infant Health By Borra, Cristina; González, Libertad; Patiño, David
  28. French Female Managers from North African origin: an integration "à la française" By Arnaud Lacheret
  29. Suddenly a Stay-At-Home Dad? Short- and Long-term Consequences of Fathers’ Job Loss on Time Investment in the Household By Juliane Hennecke; Astrid Pape
  30. Heterogeneous Returns to Medical Innovations By Lazuka, Volha
  31. Welfare effects of tax policy change when there are choice restrictions on labour supply By Zhiyang Jia; Thor O. Thoresen
  32. Admission groups and academic performance: A study of marginal entrants in the selection to higher education By Karlsson, Linn; Wikström, Magnus
  33. The evolution of educational wage differentials for women and men, from 1996 to 2019 By Ordemann, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm

  1. By: Nadia von Jacobi
    Abstract: In view of comparing the institutional textures of Germany and Italy (Boltho et al., 2017), I go beyond existing comparable datasets at NUTS2 and NUTS3 level and construct two datasets at the LAU level, which for Germany captures the "Gemeinde" and for Italy the "Municipio". In this paper I briefly present the variables that were identified as comparable across the two countries. The resulting LAUDEIT dataset has been prepared for future empirical investigations of the particularities of institutional architecture (Gertler, 2010) that may contribute to different socio-economic performance within common European governance (Boitani and Tamborini, 2021; Johnston and Reagan, 2017). Descriptive statistics of the dataset hint there may be structural differences between the two countries in terms of commuting and internal migration patterns, size of the firm and - in a related fashion - entrepreneurship rate. Municipal data also confirm that Germany presents higher income per capita, and that Italy is affected by dualism in both, employment rates and income per capita. In terms of institutional differences I find that despite similar tax rates, German municipalities withhold a much greater share of income taxes collected than their Italian counterparts. The latter rely heavily on property taxes, which despite being collected mainly on second homes represent a crucial influx of revenues for Italian municipalities.
    Keywords: dataset, municipality, Germany, Italy, institutions, regional economics
    JEL: P52 O52 O57 O43 Y1
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Abrell, Jan; Kosch, Mirjam
    Abstract: Electricity generation based on renewable energy (RE) sources such as wind and solar replace the most expensive generators that often rely on fossil fuels. In response to RE promotion, wholesale electricity prices and carbon emissions are therefore expected to decrease. In interconnected electricity systems, this so-called merit- order effect stimulates a change in electricity trade ows. Therefore, conventional generation and prices in neighboring countries are also likely to decrease. The impact of these trade reactions on carbon offsets is ambiguous and depends on installed generation and interconnector capacities. Moreover, the cross-border merit-order effect causes opposing effects on consumers and producers: Generators' profits decline, while consumers benefit from lower electricity costs and an increase in the consumer surplus. Using a rich data set of hourly technology-specific generation and wholesale market price data for ten central European countries, we estimate the domestic and cross-border impacts of German RE for the years 2015 to 2020. We find that German RE generation offset 79 to 113 MtCO2 per year. The major emission effect took place in Germany (64 - 99 MtCO2). The average cost of emission offset of 212 to 321e/t were almost entirely borne by German market participants. Neighboring countries do not bear costs, but a significant shift from producer to consumer rents is observed.
    Keywords: Renewable promotion,Electricity prices,Merit-order effect,Cross-border impacts,Carbon emissions
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q58
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Pérez Navarro, Marco Aurelio
    Abstract: This paper focuses on educational mismatches in the Spanish labour market for recent university graduates. We analyse both horizontal mismatch and vertical mismatch, more specifically overqualification, considering subjective and objective indicators. The data used is the Labour Insertion Survey for Recent University Graduates, conducted by INE in 2014 and 2019. We analyse the determinants of mismatch at the first job after graduation and at the time of the interview, four years later. We also study the persistence of mismatches and the effect of the economic recession that started in 2008. Our results show the heterogeneity of mismatches across education fields. Individual characteristics, skills, study-related variables and job characteristics also determine the mismatch probability. We also find that graduates in 2014 not only experienced a lower probability of job-education mismatch than those graduated in 2010, but also the persistence was lower, so they had more chances of leaving out the mismatch
    Keywords: job-education mismatch; college education; discrete choice models; sample selection.
    JEL: C25 I21 J24
    Date: 2021–09–23
  4. By: Jason Poulos; Andrea Albanese; Andrea Mercatanti; Fan Li
    Abstract: We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the later-treated using a matrix completion estimator. We propose a novel propensity-score and elapsed-time weighting of the estimator’s objective function to correct for differences in the observed covariate and unobserved fixed effects distributions, and elapsed time since treatment between groups. Our methodology is motivated by studying the effect of two milestones of European integration—the Free Movement of persons and the Schengen Agreement—on the share of cross-border workers in sending border regions. We apply the proposed method to the European Labour Force Survey (ELFS) data and provide evidence that opening the border almost doubled the probability of working beyond the border in Eastern European regions.
    Keywords: Causal inference; cross-border employment; European integration; matrix completion; panel data
    JEL: C21 C31 J21 J61
    Date: 2021–09
  5. By: Giovanni Mellace; Marco Ventura
    Abstract: Italy introduced a policy to incentivize young innovative start-up firms in 2012. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) we estimate its causal effects on the firms' share of intangible assets, turnover, number of employees, and number of partners. Our results indicate that after two years the policy was effective in increasing the number of partners, but we do not find any significant effects on innovation, at least in the short run. We provide strong evidence that the new investors might have been attracted by the tax benefit but had little interest in innovation.
    Keywords: Policy evaluation; Regression discontinuity design; Incentives to innovations
    JEL: H32 L52 C21 O31
    Date: 2021–09
  6. By: Antoine Bozio (IFS - Laboratory of the Institute for Fiscal Studies - Institute for Fiscal Studies, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Clémentine Garrouste (Legos - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Elsa Perdrix (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of delaying retirement on mortality amongthe French population. We take advantage of the 1993 pension reform in the private sector to identify the causal effect of an increase in claiming age on mortality. We use administrative data which provide detailed information on career characteristics, dates of birth and death. Our results, precisely estimated, show that an exogenous increase of one year in the claiming age has no significant impact on the probability to die, measured between age 61 and 79. To test the power of our sample to detect statistically significant effects for rare events like death, we compute minimum detectable effects (MDE). Our MDE estimates suggest that, if an impact of later retirement on mortality would be detectable, it would remain very small in magnitude.
    Keywords: Mortality,Pension reform,Health
    Date: 2021–09–23
  7. By: Fischer, Martin; Karlsson, Martin; Prodromidis, Nikolaos
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the long‐term effects on mortality and socio-economic outcomes from institutional delivery. We exploit two Swedish interventions that affected the costs of hospital deliveries and the supply of maternity wards during the 1926–46 period. Using exogenous variation in the supply of maternity wards to instrument the likelihood of institutional delivery, we find that delivery in hospital has substantial effects on later‐life outcomes such as education and mortality. We argue that a decrease in child morbidity due to better treatment of complications is a likely mechanism. This interpretation is corroborated by evidence from primary school performance, showing a large reduction in the probability of low performance. In contrast to an immediate and large take‐up in hospital deliveries as response to an increase in the supply, we find no increase in hospital births from the abolishment of fees – but some degree of displacement of high‐SES parents.
    Keywords: Institutional delivery, diffusion of innovations, difference‐in‐discontinuities
    Date: 2021–08–12
  8. By: Araujo P., Maria Daniela; Quis, Johanna Sophie
    Abstract: The value-added to student achievement model has become a key tool for estimating the effects of individual teachers and their classrooms on students' short-term academic success, and more importantly, on later-life outcomes. We use primary school data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) to estimate classroom effects on mathematical and language competence development, which are driven by teacher quality differences across classrooms. We estimate a value-added model with individual classroom fixed-, as well as random effects. Both model specifications apply empirical Bayes shrinkage to adjust the classroom effects' estimates by their level of precision. Our results show substantial classroom effects and quality differences across the first grades of German primary school. One standard deviation increase in classroom effectiveness is associated with at least a 12 percent of a standard deviation increase in student mathematical competence scores, and at least 14 percent of a standard deviation increase in language competence scores. In addition, we find that none of the teacher characteristics typically used in teacher recruitment processes significantly explain the classroom quality differences. Interestingly, as parental assessment of teacher quality is the only indicator significantly associated with classroom effectiveness in language competence development, parents seem to be able to identify more effective language teachers.
    Keywords: classroom effects,teacher effects,teacher value-added,Germany
    JEL: I20 J45
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Anna Adamecz-Völgyi (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (KRTK KRTI), Toth Kalman u. 4, 1097 Budapest and UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA); Morag Henderson (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA); Nikki Shure (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA and Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, D-53113 Bonn.)
    Abstract: While it has been shown that university attendance is strongly predicted by parental education, we know very little about why some potential ‘first in family’ or first-generation students make it to university and others do not. This paper looks at the role of non-cognitive skills in the university participation of this disadvantaged group in England. We find that conditional on national, high-stakes exam scores and various measures of socioeconomic background, having higher levels of non-cognitive skills, specifically locus of control, academic self-concept, work ethic, and self-esteem, in adolescence is positively related to intergenerational educational mobility to university. Our results indicate that having higher non-cognitive skills helps potential first in family university students to compensate for their relative disadvantage, and they are especially crucial for boys. The most important channel of this relationship seems to be through educational attainment at the end of compulsory schoolig
    Keywords: socioeconomic gaps, intergenerational educational mobility, higher education, non-cognitive skills
    JEL: I24 J24
    Date: 2021–09
  10. By: Berger, Marius; Gottschalk, Sandra
    Abstract: In recent years governments around the world have introduced policies to stimulate investments in early stage entrepreneurial companies, in particular investments by Angel investors. In this paper we study whether introducing subsidies to Angel investors has effects on startups' access to financial and managerial resources provided by Angel investors. Using data for a representative sample of entrepreneurial companies in Germany, we analyze the effect of the introduction of a major subsidy program for Angel investors in Germany. Having data before and after the introduction of the program allows us to use a difference-in-differences framework to examine the effect of the program on eligible companies. Our findings indicate that subsidies for Angel investors both increase the chances to receive financing from Angel investors (+36-67%), as well as the amount of financing received (+70-82%). In terms of managerial resources, we find no effects that are significantly different from zero. This result is in contrast to theoretical predictions suggesting negative effects of investment subsidies on the level of managerial support that companies receive. Exploring the mechanisms behind our results, we find that the policy stimulated entry by inexperienced investors, but also increased syndicate sizes of Angel investors in entrepreneurial companies.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship Policy,Angel Investors,Venture Capital,Syndication
    JEL: G28 G24 M13 O38
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Thor O. Thoresen; Marius A. K. Ring; Odd E. Nygård; Jon Epland (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Over the past decade, the question of whether and how to tax household wealth has risen to the forefront of policy debates across the world. Norway belongs to only a handful of countries that (still) levy an annual net wealth tax. We exploit rich Norwegian administrative data to perform descriptive analyses that address questions at the focal point of the wealth tax debate. We discuss how the taxation of wealth fits in with the personal income tax. We further investigate the redistributional effects of wealth taxation and explore the extent to which wealth taxation may cause adverse liquidity effects for private firms. Finally, we consider the effects of wealth taxation on charitable giving. Taken together, we see the evidence presented here as not weakening the case for upholding the tax: we find favorable distributional effects and the efficiency losses appear to be limited.
    Keywords: Wealth tax; administrative data; distributional effects; efficiency loss
    JEL: H21 H23 H25 H31
    Date: 2021–08
  12. By: Lange, Martin
    Abstract: Does the politico-economic system affect preferences for immigration? In this study, I show that individuals exposed to life under state socialism have formed and persistently hold different attitudes toward immigration. By exploiting the division and reunification of Germany, I estimate the influence of state socialism on attitudes toward immigration. Drawing on rich individual panel data, I find that East Germans who lived under state socialism, are 15 percent more likely to oppose immigration than West Germans who spent their entire life in a democratic, capitalist country. This difference in attitudes toward immigration is persistent over time and across space, and largest for cohorts born and raised under state socialism. This gap in attitudes can be traced back to a longer-term deterioration in trust. Evidence from members of a group that opposed the authoritarian system highlights the importance of state socialist ideology for attitude formation.
    Keywords: state socialism,attitudes toward immigration,German division andreunification
    JEL: P20 P51 N34 Z10
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Karlsson, Linn (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Complementary adult education provides a second chance for those who, for various reasons, did not complete their upper secondary education. Little, however, is known about the economic gains of those who continue on to higher education. This paper aims to study the effect of university education on economic outcomes among individuals who initially attained low levels of education, and then participated in adult education. Swedish longitudinal population register data from 1990{2015 was used to estimate the effect on income and employment among those who participated in adult education in 1994 and enrolled at university in 1996{1998. Difference-in-difference propensity score matching was used to account for non-random selection to university education. The results reveals signifcant gains in terms of earnings for those who proceeded on to university, and also their probability of employment increased. Additional heterogeneity analyses showed minor differences between students of different gender, and little to no differences between young and old students.
    Keywords: Adult education; tertiary education; second-chance education; propensity-score matching; earnings
    JEL: I21 I23 I26
    Date: 2021–09–24
  14. By: Julieta Peveri (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Sangnier (UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper studies differences across genders in the re-contesting decisions of politicians following electoral wins or defeats. Using close races in mixed-gender French local elections, we show that women are less likely to persist in competition when they lose compared to male runners-up, but are equally or more prone than male winners to re-contest when they win. Differences in observable characteristics or in the expected electoral returns of running again cannot fully account for these gender gaps in persistence. In contrast, the heterogeneity of the results across political ideology, age, experience and occupation suggests that behavioural explanations are at play. Additionally, we provide evidence that a woman's victory encourages former female challengers to re-contest but does not trigger the entry of new female candidates.
    Keywords: Gender,Competition,Persistence,Candidates,Self-selection,Elections
    Date: 2021–09
  15. By: Reinhard Weisser (Nottingham Trent University)
    Abstract: Over the last decades, Europe attracted an increasing number of internationally mobile students. The related influx of talent into European labour markets constituted an important factor to the knowledge economy. This research addresses the question whether changing political landscapes in Europe, e.g. an increasing scepticism concerning migrants or support for right-wing parties, translated into a diminishing attractiveness of European economies. To this end, international graduates’ staying behaviour in 28 European destination countries is investigated based on bilateral stay rates for almost 150 countries of origin in the years 2009 to 2019. Controlling for various immigration regimes and institutional settings, international graduates are found to display a high level of sensitivity with respect to political dynamics: A distinct dominance of the right political spectrum may lower the number of international graduates willing to stay by up to 50%. The effect is particularly strong in election years when voters’ political preferences become more salient. Eventually, this amounts to a considerable loss for European economies since international graduates have acquired destination country specific human capital and are easily integrated into host societies.
    Keywords: migration policies, graduate mobility, labour market integration, political preferences
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Clark, Robert; Coviello, Decio; de Leverano, Adriano
    Abstract: We study how delivery times and prices for hospital medical devices respond to the introduction of centralized procurement. Our identification strategy leverages a legislative change in Italy that mandated centralized purchases for a sub-set of devices. The statutory centralization generated a reduction in prices and an increase in delivery times for centralized purchases relative to non-centralized purchases. We use data on quantities and on suppliers to discuss the mechanisms potentially underlying our findings.
    Keywords: Public Procurement,Centralization,Medical Devices,Delivery Times,Bulk Purchasing
    JEL: D44 H51 H57 I18
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Mohamed Ali Ben Halima (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Malik Koubi (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé)
    Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of the French reform of 11 January 2008 in the private sector, which modified the share of sick leave paid by the employer in addition to the social security benefit. The reform is comprised of two parts: the waiting period until complementary payment is made by the employer, reduced from ten to seven days; and the minimum required tenure to be eligible, reduced from three years to one year. In this study, we used the administrative panel data (Hygie) from 2006 to 2010 along with a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) database. The latter was constructed by the authors in order to collect the parameters of complementary benefit for sick leave. We examined separately the effects of the waiting period part and the tenure part of the reform, using a difference-in-differences strategy with matching. When the waiting period is reduced, the number of sick days' increases significantly (+ 0.5 days). When the minimum tenure requirement is reduced, there is more impact on sick leave (+ 0.6 days on the number of sick days and + 0.9 pp on sickness probability). The effects of sick pay reform are different between men and women. The waiting part of the reform significantly increased the annual number of sick leave days and the frequency of sick leave for men, while the Tenure part of the reform has significant impact only for women.
    Abstract: La réforme issue de l'Accord national interprofessionnel (ANI) du 11 janvier 2008 vise à améliorer le niveau conventionnel de l'indemnité complémentaire des arrêts maladie versée par l'employeur. Scindée en deux volets, cette réforme réduit, d'une part, le délai de carence de l'indemnité complémentaire de 10 jours à 7 jours et, d'autre part, le critère de l'ancienneté minimale (de 3 ans à 1 an) pour bénéficier de l'indemnité complémentaire. Dans cette étude, nous utilisons un panel des données administratives Hygie de 2006 à 2010 enrichi par une nouvelle base de conventions collectives, construite par les auteurs, qui recueille les paramètres d'indemnisation complémentaire des arrêts maladie. Nous évaluons séparément les deux volets de la réforme, délais de carence et réduction de l'ancienneté minimale sur les arrêts maladie en utilisant la méthode de différence de différences avec appariement. Pour le volet carence, la réforme a un impact positif et significatif sur les absences, mesurées en termes de nombre annuel de jours d'absence (+0,5 jours). Pour le deuxième volet ancienneté, la réforme a impact significatif (+ 0,6 jours d'absence maladie + 0,9 pp la probabilité annuelle d'absence pour cause de maladie). La réforme a un impact différent entre les hommes et les femmes. Le volet carence de la réforme a augmenté de manière significative le nombre annuel de jours d'absence et la probabilité d'arrêt maladie pour les hommes, tandis que le volet ancienneté de la réforme n'a un impact significatif que pour les femmes.
    Keywords: sickness absence,complementary benefit of sick leave,administrative panel data,difference-in-differences,health policy reform
    Date: 2021–09–23
  18. By: Marieke Bos; Andrew Hertzberg; Andres Liberman
    Abstract: Almost two in 10 adults in the U.S. and Europe are, at any moment in time, diagnosed with a mental illness. This paper asks whether mental illness is over- (or under-) diagnosed, by looking at its causal effect on individuals at the margin of diagnosis. We follow all Swedish men born between 1971 and 1983 matched to administrative panel data on health, labor market, wealth and family outcomes to estimate the impact of a mental illness diagnosis on subsequent outcomes. Exploiting the random assignment of 18-year-old men to doctors during military conscription, we find that a mental illness diagnosis for people at the margin increases the future likelihood of death, hospital admittance, being sick from work, and unemployment, while lowering the probability of being married. Using a separate identification strategy, we measure the effect of military service on the same set of outcomes to rule out that the effect of diagnosis in our setting is primarily mediated by altering the probability of serving. Our findings are consistent with the potential over-diagnosis of mental illness
    Keywords: Mental Illness; Long-run Effect of a Diagnosis; Economics
    JEL: D12 I18 L51 L66
    Date: 2021–09–29
  19. By: Hugo Castro-Silva (Universidade de Lisboa); Francisco Lima (Universidade de Lisboa)
    Abstract: In the knowledge economy, skilled workers play an important role in innovation and economic growth. However, small firms may not be able to keep these workers. We study how the knowledge-skill complementarity relates to job duration in small and large firms, using a Portuguese linked employer-employee data set. We select workers displaced by firm closure and estimate a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity on the subsequent job relationship. To account for the initial sorting of displaced workers to firms, we introduce weights in the model according to the individual propensity of employment in a small firm. Our results show a lower premium on skills in terms of job duration for small firms. Furthermore, we find evidence of a strong knowledge-skill complementarity in large firms, where the accumulation of firm-specific human capital also plays a more important role in determining the hazard of job separation. For small firms, the complementarity does not translate into longer job duration, even for those with pay policies above the market. Overall, small knowledge-intensive firms struggle to retain high skill workers and find it harder to leverage the knowledge-skill complementarity.
    Keywords: knowledge intensity, technology, firm size, small firms, job duration, skills
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Karlsson, Linn (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Wikström, Magnus (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: This study explores female underprediction in first-year university achievement by using data from 8,971 Swedish university entrants in the fall semester of 2012. The Swedish admissions system selects students by two instruments: upper secondary school GPA or scores from a scholastic aptitude test (SweSAT). Nearest-neighbour matching allows us to compare students with similar admission scores and estimate achievement differences between male and female students. The results show that admission scores underpredict achievement for women relative to men in both admissions groups and more so for the SweSAT. As we condition on field of education, achievement differences tend to vary over fields and tend to become smaller, indicating that part of the differences is related to the male-female composition of students in the different fields.
    Keywords: Swedish admissions test; grade point average; gender; female underprediction; higher education
    JEL: I21 I23 I24
    Date: 2021–09–24
  21. By: Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Kouwenhoven, Marco (Significance, Den Haag, Netherlands); de Jong , Gerard (Significance, Den Haag, Netherlands); Daly , Andrew (ITS Leeds)
    Abstract: This paper studies intertemporal changes in the value of travel time (VTT) and investigates whether the change of VTT over time can be studied based on national VTT data, collected at two points in time. We use repeated national VTT data from the Netherlands and Sweden, collected 13 and 14 years apart. The results show mostly a declining VTT for a given income level. The results show also a large within-country heterogeneity across modes and purposes, in the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT, and in its development over time. The explanation most consistent with our results and those of others is that the VTT has in fact increased due to income increases, but that the repeated stated choice data cannot detect this given the data, methodology and population changes. In particular, it seems that the response rate has dropped considerably in the later surveys partly due to a higher share of (busy) respondents declining to be recruited. The main contribution of this paper is to document the differences between the studies carried out in different years, indicating the reasons why it is difficult to identify temporal changes in the VTT.
    Keywords: Value of time; Stated preference; Income elasticity; Cost-benefit analysis; Repeated studies; Data collection
    JEL: D61 H54 R41 R48
    Date: 2021–09–23
  22. By: Angelica Sbardella; Andrea Zaccaria; Luciano Pietronero; Pasquale Scaramozzino
    Abstract: This paper applies the Economic Fitness and Complexity approach to analyse the underlying factors behind the wide and persistent economic disparities across the Italian regional units. Measures of regional fitness are obtained from their revealed comparative advantage and from their patent performance. Southern regions tend to be characterised by a lower level of complexity than the regions in the Centre-North of the country. We interpret these results as indicating a lower level of capability endowment in the South. The system-wide approach of the paper is able to identify some critical sectors which display a rich pattern of connections with other sectors and which could play a pivotal role to create additional capabilities and foster a more balanced regional development.
    Keywords: Italian regional divide; Economic Fitness and Complexity; Productive and technological capabilities.
    Date: 2021–09–22
  23. By: Genz, Sabrina; Gregory, Terry; Janser, Markus; Lehmer, Florian; Matthes, Britta
    Abstract: We investigate how workers adjust to firms' investments into new digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, augmented reality, or 3D printing. For this, we collected novel data that links survey information on firms' technology adoption to administrative social security data. We then compare individual outcomes between workers employed at technology adopters relative to non-adopters. Depending on the type of technology, we find evidence for improved employment stability, higher wage growth, and increased cumulative earnings in response to digital technology adoption. These beneficial adjustments seem to be driven by technologies used by service providers rather than manufacturers. However, the adjustments do not occur equally across worker groups: IT-related expert jobs with non-routine analytic tasks benefit most from technological upgrading, coinciding with highly complex job requirements, but not necessarily with more academic skills.
    Keywords: technological change,artificial intelligence,employment stability,wages
    JEL: J23 J31 J62
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Giulia Aliprandi (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mona Baraké (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Paul-Emmanuel Chouc (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory)
    Abstract: This study documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014. The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2015. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country. We start by creating a list of tax haven jurisdictions used by the banking sector. We combine two indicators to identify tax havens: the effective tax rate on bank profit and the amount of bank profit per employee. Overall, 17 jurisdictions feature in our list: Bahamas, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Ireland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Macao, Malta, Mauritius, Panama, and Qatar. Using this list, we show that European banks use tax havens significantly, with no trend during the 2014–2020 period. The main European banks book EUR 20 billion (or 14% of their total profits) in tax havens each year. This percentage has been stable since 2014 despite the introduction of mandatory information disclosure. Bank profitability in tax havens is abnormally high: EUR 238 000 per employee, as opposed to around EUR 65 000 in non-haven countries. This suggests that the profits booked in tax havens are primarily shifted out of other countries where service production occurs. Around 25% of the profits made by the European banks in our sample are booked in countries with an effective tax rate lower than 15%. The use of tax havens varies considerably from bank to bank. The mean percentage of profits booked in tax havens is about 20% and ranges from 0% for nine banks to a maximum of 58%. The mean effective tax rate paid by the banks in our sample is 20%, with a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 30%. Seven banks exhibit a particularly low effective tax rate, below or equal to 15%. To better understand this heterogeneity, we analyse the use of tax havens by three banks with a relatively high presence in tax havens: HSBC, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale. We observe a diversity of situations: for HSBC, the bulk of haven profits come from just one haven (Hong Kong), while in other cases multiple tax havens are involved. We estimate the amount of revenues that could be collected by applying a minimum tax rate on the profits of banks. We simulate a tax similar to the G20/OECD minimum tax proposal ,which the majority of the Inclusive Framework jurisdictions supported in July 2021. In this proposal each parent country would collect the tax deficit of its own banks. For instance, if the internationally agreed minimum tax rate is 15% and a German multinational bank has an effective tax rate of 10% on the profits it books in Singapore, Germany would impose an additional tax of 5% on these profits to arrive at an effective rate of 15%. We consider three minimum tax rates—15%, 21%, and 25%—and in each case compute the extra tax owed per bank and tabulate results by headquarter country. Our findings show that a minimum tax has significant revenue potential. With a 25% minimum tax rate, our sample of European banks would have to pay EUR 10-13 billion in additional taxes annually. Lower tax rates reduce the gains to EUR 6-9 billion for the 21% tax rate and EUR 3-5 billion for the 15% tax rate. Banks with low effective tax rates—which tend to make use of tax havens to shift profits and lower their tax liability—would be particularly affected. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of country-by-country reporting, a vital piece of information to track profit shifting and corporate tax avoidance. They also suggest that despite the growing salience of these issues in the public debate and in the policy world, European banks have not significantly curtailed their use of tax havens since 2014. More ambitious initiatives—such as a global minimum tax with a 25% rate—may be necessary to curb the use of tax havens by the banking sector.
    Date: 2021–09
  25. By: Costa-Font, J.;; Saenz de Miera Juarez, B.
    Abstract: We exploit the implementation of a national policy (the Aubry reform) that lead to the reduction of working time implemented across France (which kept individual salaries unaltered) to study the effect of a reduced working week on overweight. We draw variation from Alsace-Moselle, where hours of work fell by less than the rest of France for the first two years when it was forced to fully comply with national policy. We use longitudinal data for 1997-2006 following employees of the largest company in the country (EDF-GDF) which was among the very first to implement the 35-hour workweek in 2000. We show evidence of 6.7 percentage points increases in the probability of overweight among blue-collar workers exposed to the reform. That is, an average 9% increase in overweight resulting from an additional 10% working time reduction. In contrast, we find no effect among white-collar workers. The effect is driven by an increase in overweight among normal-weight individuals before the reform. The effects are robust to different specifications, the effect of retirement and placebo tests, alongside the effect on other areas of France, as well as on a weighted control group.
    Keywords: overweight; obesity; working times; difference-in-differences; blue collar; white collar; Body Mass Index;
    JEL: I13 J81
    Date: 2021–09
  26. By: Ingrid Huitfeldt (Statistics Norway); Andreas R. Kostøl; Jan Nimczik; Andrea Weber
    Abstract: This paper develops a new method to study how workers’ career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on ob-served worker flows between occupations within firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations
    Keywords: Internal Labor Markets; Organization of Labor; Wage Setting
    JEL: J31 J62 M5
    Date: 2021–08
  27. By: Borra, Cristina; González, Libertad; Patiño, David
    Abstract: We study the effects of maternal age on infant health. Age at birth has been increasing for the past several decades in many countries, and correlations show that health at birth is worse for children born to older mothers. In order to identify causal effects, we exploit school entry cutoffs and the empirical finding that women who are older for their cohort in school tend to give birth later. In Spain, children born in December start school a year earlier than those born the following January, despite being essentially the same age. We show that as a result, January‐born women finish school later and are (several months) older when they marry and when they have their first child. We find no effect on educational attainment. We then compare the health at birth of the children of women born in January versus the previous December, using administrative, population‐level data, and following a regression discontinuity design. We find small and insignificant effects on average weight at birth, but the children of January‐born mothers are more likely to have very low birthweight. We interpret our results as suggestive of a causal effect of maternal age on infant health, concentrated in the left tail of the birthweight distribution, with older mothers more likely to give birth to (very) premature babies.
    Keywords: Maternal age, Infant health, School cohort
    Date: 2021–09–30
  28. By: Arnaud Lacheret (Arabian Gulf University)
    Abstract: The integration process of migrants from a different culture is an important subject in developed countries, especially in France. Due to its colonial past, France has welcomed many workers from North Africa since the 60s. This first generation was composed of non-skilled workers who occupied jobs mostly in the industrial sector. This immigration was supposed to be temporary and the immigrants, mostly men, were not supposed to become French let alone be integrated in French society. However, after several years, most of these workers arranged the immigration of their spouses and founded households in France. This settlement was not really anticipated in France and from the early 80s onward, the integration of those new French citizens became a political priority. In our research, we assumed that the integration of the second generation of French North African immigrants can be compared with one that was the subject of a previous study we conducted: a study of the integration of female managers in the Gulf. After various reforms by local Governments it had become easier for women to raise in the social scale in those countries (Lacheret, 2020; Lacheret and Farooq, 2021).
    Date: 2021–09
  29. By: Juliane Hennecke (NZ Work Research Institute, Faculty of Business, Economics and Law at AUT University); Astrid Pape (School of Business & Economics, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany)
    Abstract: Commonly described as “gender care gap”, there is a persistent gender difference in the division of unpaid domestic responsibilities in developed countries. We use German survey data to provide novel evidence on short- and long-run effects of an exogenous shock on paternal availability, through a job loss, on the intra-household allocation of domestic work. We find that paternal child care and housework significantly increase in the short run on weekdays, while we do not see any similar shifts on weekends. Effects are positive and persistent for fathers who remain unemployed or have a working partner, but reverse after re-employment. We also find significant changes for female partners as well as in cumulative household time investments and outsourcing of tasks. Our results are in line with theoretical predictions regarding time availability and financial constraints, while we find no strong evidence for changes in bargaining powers, gender role attitudes or emotional bonding.
    Keywords: Job loss, paternal child care, fatherhood, domestic labor, intra-household allocation
    JEL: J13 J22 J63
    Date: 2021–06
  30. By: Lazuka, Volha (Department of Business and Economics and Interdisciplinary Centre for Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: This paper sets up a quasi-experiment to estimate both total and heterogeneous impacts of medical innovations on the individual’s economic outcomes for a comprehensive set of around 90 health conditions. The rich administrative panel data for Sweden covering more than 1 million individuals combined with disease-specific data on new molecular entities and patents granted in healthcare have allowed me to emulate such an experiment. I find that an increase in medical innovations by one standard deviation raises disposable family income by 14.8% [95% CI: 14.4%; 15.1%]. Regarding the sources of income response, medical innovations strongly influence not only own disposable and labour income and sickness and unemployment payments but also a spouse’s income. The effects of medical innovations are especially strong for cancer and circulatory diseases, are moderate for mental and nervous, infectious and respiratory diseases, and are absent or appear as losses for other health shocks. Results also suggest decreasing returns – yet far from reaching zeros – rather than constant returns to scale.
    Keywords: medical innovation; health shock; disposable income; difference-in-differences approach; Sweden
    JEL: I12 I14 I24 J22 J24 O31
    Date: 2021–08–26
  31. By: Zhiyang Jia; Thor O. Thoresen (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Information about individual choices of heterogeneous agents. Results can for example be used to describe the distributional effects of tax policy change, such as the effects on changes in money metric utility – distributions of equivalent and compensating variation (EV or CV). This type of “revealed preference” methodology relies on using models with sufficient realism. In this paper we argue that the so-called “job choice model” represents a way forward in practical work, as it has a richer representation of choice constraints than conventional labour supply models. This model is also particularly suitable given an increased focus on distinguishing between preferences and constraints in applied welfare analysis. We demonstrate the empirical content of the framework by describing the effects of the Norwegian tax reform 2013–2019 on the distribution of compensating variation (CV).
    Keywords: labour supply; money metric utility; distributional effects; tax reform
    JEL: H31 I31 J22 C25
    Date: 2021–08
  32. By: Karlsson, Linn (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Wikström, Magnus (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study whether Swedish admission policies are successful in selecting the best-performing students. The Swedish universities select students based on two different instruments, which each form a separate admission group. A regression model is recommended to estimate the achievement differences for the marginally accepted students between the admission groups and is applied to a sample of 9,024 Swedish university entrants in four different fields of education. Marginally accepted students in the group selected by school grades on average perform better than students accepted by an admission test, suggesting that a small reallocation of study positions towards the grade admission group may increase overall academic achievement. However, the achievement difference appears to vary concerning university programme selectivity. We found that increasing selection by grades in less competitive programmes would improve overall achievement, while increasing selection by grades in highly selective programmes would not increase achievement.
    Keywords: Higher education; selection; admission groups; marginal admit; achievement
    JEL: I21 I23 I28
    Date: 2021–09–24
  33. By: Ordemann, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Friedhelm
    Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of three higher education wage differentials from 1996 to 2019 in Germany, a period when significant changes in the educational composition of the workforce took place. Based on regression analysis and samples of male and female workers from the Socio-Economic Panel Study, the study finds that while all three educational wage differentials increased, workers graduating from universities experienced an inverted u-shape pattern, reaching a plateau between 2011 and 2015. We argue that the decline which began after 2015, and which is detectable as well in the occupational prestige scores, may have resulted from a relative educational upskilling of the workforce as well as changes in the subject-choice composition of graduates. We also document differences between East and West Germany that appear to level off over time. The paper concludes with open questions related to these findings and potential future developments.
    Keywords: Educational Wage Differentials,Gender Gaps,Higher Education Expansion,Occupational Prestige,Participation
    JEL: J31 J16 I23 J62 E24
    Date: 2021

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