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on Microeconomic European Issues |
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Issue of 2021‒06‒21
twenty-six papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Camarero Garcia, Sebastian; Hansch, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Although a meaningful percentage of firms are created out of unemployment and current active labor market policies in Europe often subsidize unemployed individuals to start their own businesses, little is known about the role of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity for selfemployment. By using Spanish administrative data including previously unavailable information on self-employment, we exploit a reform-driven exogenous cut in UI benefits to identify its causal effect on general employment and decompose it into the effects on self-employment and re-employment. Exploiting a discontinuity in the UI benefit schedule which changed as a result of the 2012 Spanish labor market reform, we estimate the causal reform effects on the extensive margin of (self-)employment and on unemployment duration. We find heterogeneous effects on the extensive margin: while the job-finding rate increases, the startup rate decreases. Over different time horizons, the negative effect on self-employment (35-50%) outweighs the positive effect on employment (5-33%). Our UI benefit duration elasticity estimates indicate that reduced UI benefits extend unemployment duration for individuals transitioning into self-employment but shorten unemployment for individuals finding re-employment. Due to the reform's unintended consequences for self-employment, its general employment effect is much smaller than claimed by analyses that focus only on employment. |
| Keywords: | Social Insurance,Self-Employment,Spain,Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | H75 J64 J65 J68 L26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:182021&r= |
| By: | Davide Fiaschi; Cristina Tealdi |
| Abstract: | We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy on the careers of individuals aged 15-34. We find that the pandemic worsened an already concerning situation of higher unemployment and inactivity rates and significantly longer STWT duration compared to other EU countries, particularly for females and residents in the South of Italy. In the midst of the pandemic, individuals aged 20-29 were less in (permanent and temporary) employment and more in the NLFET (Neither in the Labour Force nor in Education or Training) state, particularly females and non Italian citizens. We also provide evidence of an increased propensity to return to schooling, but most importantly of a substantial prolongation of the STWT duration towards permanent employment, mostly for males and non Italian citizens. Our contribution lies in providing a rigorous estimation and analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the carriers of young individuals in Italy, which has not yet been explored in the literature. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.08296&r= |
| By: | Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has highly asymmetric effects on labour market outcomes of men and women. In this paper, we empirically investigate the dynamics and drivers of gender gaps in employment rates, wages and workhours during the pandemic. Relying on Estonian Labour Force Survey data, we document that the pandemic has, if anything, reduced gender inequality in all three domains. Our results suggest that, while the evolution of inequalities mirrored the infection rate development – rising as infections mounted and declining as the first wave flattened – overall, the pandemic did not exacerbate gender gaps in 2020. The cyclical increases in gender disparities were largely driven by parenthood, as child-rearing women experienced a major decline in their employment rate and workhours, as well as gender segregation in the most affected industries. The higher propensity to work from home and better educational attainments of women deterred gender wage gap expansion, as wage returns to telework and education rose during the pandemic. Our results suggest no systematic expansion of gender gaps, but rather short-term fluctuations. However, labour market penalties for women with young children and women employed in those industries most affected by COVID-19 may last longer than the pandemic, threatening to widen gender inequality in the long run. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, employment, gender, inequalities, wage gap |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:202&r= |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | Higher education finance depends on the public’s preferences for charging tuition, which may be partly based on beliefs about the university earnings premium. To test whether public support for tuition depends on earnings information, we devise survey experiments in representative samples of the German electorate (N>15,000). The electorate is divided, with a plurality opposing tuition. Providing information on the university earnings premium raises support for tuition by 7 percentage points, turning the plurality in favor. The opposition-reducing effect persists two weeks after treatment. Information on fiscal costs and unequal access does not affect public preferences. We subject the baseline result to various experimental tests of replicability, robustness, heterogeneity, and consequentiality. |
| Keywords: | tuition, higher education, information, earnings premium, public opinion, voting |
| JEL: | H52 I22 D72 D83 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9102&r= |
| By: | Irina Bakalova; Ruxanda Berlinschi; Jan Fidrmuc; Yuri Dzjuba |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial increase in the prevalence of working from home among white-collar occupations. This can have important implications for the future of the workplace and quality of life. We discuss an additional implication, which we label reverse brain drain: the possibility that white-collar migrant workers return to live in their countries of origin while continuing to work for employers in their countries of destination. We estimate the potential size of this reverse flow using data from the European Labor Force Survey. Our estimates suggest that the UK, France, Switzerland and Germany each have around half a million skilled migrants who could perform their jobs from their home countries. Most of them originate from the other EU member states: both old and new. We discuss the potential economic, social and political implications of such reverse brain drain. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, working from home, return migration, brain drain |
| JEL: | F22 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9104&r= |
| By: | Jason Poulos; Andrea Albanese; Andrea Mercatanti; Fan Li |
| Abstract: | We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the later-treated using a matrix completion estimator. We propose a novel propensity-score and elapsed-time weighting of the estimator's objective function to correct for differences in the observed covariate and unobserved fixed effects distributions, and elapsed time since treatment between groups. Our methodology is motivated by studying the effect of two milestones of European integration -- the Free Movement of persons and the Schengen Agreement -- on the share of cross-border workers in sending border regions. We apply the proposed method to the European Labour Force Survey (ELFS) data and provide evidence that opening the border almost doubled the probability of working beyond the border in Eastern European regions. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.00788&r= |
| By: | Duch-Browne, Nestor; Grzybowski, Lukasz; Romahn, André; Verboven, Frank |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to evaluate the impact of market integration, accounting for spillovers between multiple distribution channels. Our adaptation of the standard random coefficients logit demand model allows for substitution between distribution channels and incorporates consumer arbitrage across countries. We apply our framework to the European portable PC market, where geo-blocking practices that restrict online trade have recently been banned. The total consumer and welfare gains from reducing cross-border arbitrage costs are relatively modest, and entirely due to increased product choice rather than reduced price discrimination. At the same time, the distributional effects from the cross-country price convergence are substantial. Consumers in high income countries gain most, while consumers in medium and low income countries are only marginally better or even worse off. |
| Keywords: | geoblocking; market integration; online trade restrictions; PC industry |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14864&r= |
| By: | Stefanie Braun |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the effects of mortgage interest deductibility and untaxed imputed rental income on the German homeownership. I use a general equilibrium life-cycle framework, where a minimum down-payment constraint on purchases of housing capital is the critical element of the model framework. I find that both tax policies would increase Germany's low homeownership rate. However, these tax policies would entail substantial welfare losses for individuals of all income quintiles in the long run. Finally, wealth e ects are relatively small and the welfare analysis shows that individuals would prefer to live in an economy without preferential tax treatment of housing. |
| Keywords: | German homeownership rate; Housing taxation; Imputed rents; Mortgage deductibility; Capital accumulation |
| JEL: | E62 H3 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:209_braun&r= |
| By: | Jan Fagerberg (TIK, University of Oslo); Martin Srholec (CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | What determines the differences in economic performance across European regions? In addressing this question, this paper takes inspiration from two different approaches. One approach highlights the role of capability-building, of a technological or social nature, while another perspective emphasizes the potential advantages of proximity and, hence, a relatively diversified economic structure, for regional economic performance. The paper argues that the impacts of capability-building and diversification on regional economic development need to be assessed jointly. Using information for 261 regions at NUTS2 level in 27 European countries in the 2000s, novel data sources are exploited to construct measures of technological and social capabilities, which are combined with indicators of related and unrelated variety in the analysis of regional economic dynamics. The results suggest that capability-building play a key role in regional economic development while the results for diversification are more mixed. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20210615&r= |
| By: | Wirkierman, Ariel L. (Institute of Management Studies(IMS), Goldsmiths, University of London); Ciarli, Tommaso (UNU-MERIT, and Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex); Savonna, Maria (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex, and Department of Economics and Finance, Luiss University) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a novel, theoretically driven map of EU regional asymmetries, based on the shares and dynamics of high-tech employment and wages, as well as the structure of inter-regional Input-Output relations at the EU NUTS-1 regional level. We use data from EUROSTAT and the EU-REGIO database to perform a trade-aware shift-share analysis coupled with a hierarchical clustering. We show that EU regions present a fractal structure of asymmetries, i.e. the emergence of core-periphery relations at progressively smaller scales, in relation to both spatial and trade dimensions. We identify regional clusters labelled 'consolidated core', 'declining core', 'emerging cities', 'declining peripheries' and 'CEE factories', and we show that there is a polarising dynamics between driving and follower clusters, drawing implications for EU cohesion policy. |
| Keywords: | Regional high-tech employment, Regional wage rate differentials, Cluster Analysis, European cohesion policy |
| JEL: | R11 O30 C38 |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021023&r= |
| By: | Brancati, Emanuele (Sapienza University of Rome, and IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Pietrobelli, Carlo (UNU-MERIT, and University of Roma Tre); Torres Mazzi, Caio (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how value-chain governance affects the innovation performance of suppliers of intermediate products. We take advantage of a unique dataset of Italian firms to identify governance regimes along suppliers' technological capabilities and the level of explicit coordination in the value chain. Our results indicate that 'modular' value-chain governance is more conducive to innovation for suppliers, especially when these firms have medium capability levels. Conversely, market-based governance modes appear to strongly reduce the innovativeness of suppliers with low capability. These patterns are also reflected in export performances and sales of innovative products. Our results go partially against other findings in the GVC literature, whereby relational value chains are seen to provide the most favourable environment to learn and innovate. Interestingly, the highest levels of technological capabilities consistently reduce the correlation between supplying intermediates and innovation performance, which indicates that technology-gap is an important mediator of learning within value chains. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, export, suppliers, innovation, technological capabilities |
| JEL: | F14 O30 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021017&r= |
| By: | Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Kuhn, Moritz; Tertilt, Michèle |
| Abstract: | The COVID19 crisis has hit labor markets. School and child-care closures have put families with children in challenging situations. We look at Germany and quantify the macroeconomic importance of working parents. We document that 26 percent of the German workforce have children aged 14 or younger and estimate that 11 percent of workers and 8 percent of all working hours are affected if schools and daycare centers remain closed. In most European countries, the share of affected working hours is even higher. Policies to restart the economy have to accommodate the concerns of these families. |
| Keywords: | child-care; children; COVID-19; Labor market; Parents; workforce |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J22 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14882&r= |
| By: | Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Góra, Marek; Jessen, Jonas; Jessen, Robin; Kluve, Jochen |
| Abstract: | We quantify labour market effects of changes in the potential benefit duration (PBD) in Poland. Individual workers' PBD depends on the county unemployment rate relative to the national average - 12 months of PBD above a cut-off of 125 per cent and 6 months below. This cut-off shifted from 125 to 150 per cent in a 2009 reform. We utilize i) the natural experiment of the reform and ii) the sharp discontinuity generated by the cut-offs to estimate effects of shortening the PBD. Our administrative data cover unemployment spells for prime age workers during the years 2006-2018. A one-month shorter PBD decreases average benefit duration by 0.5 months and average unemployment duration by 0.4 months. The PBD reduction by six months increased the job finding rate within the first 9 months by 6 percentage points. Using the stock of unemployed per county, we find evidence for positive aggregate employment effects. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment benefits,extended benefits,spell duration |
| JEL: | H55 J20 J65 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:911&r= |
| By: | Bonnet, Céline; Etcheverry, Clara |
| Abstract: | The online distribution channel expands in many sectors, and the food industry is not left out. This paper analyzes the impact of ecommerce on French grocery shopping. Using purchase data, we develop a structural econometric model of demand and supply to estimate the effect of the emergence of online distribution channels on prices, profit, consumer surplus, and profit-sharing between retailers and manufacturers in the soft drink sector. We find that e-commerce leads to market expansion, and the effect on the retailers’ profits depends on their online strategy. The retailers which developed independent warehouses for the online distribution channel get higher market shares, retail margins, and profits. The retailers which develop the online services in the existing stores or adjoined warehouses get lower downstream margins, market shares, and profits with e-commerce. Our results also suggest that the introduction of the online grocery channel is profitable to most manufacturers due to an increase in wholesale margins. This increase with the introduction of e-commerce comes from the higher retailers’ fear of risking a bargaining breakdown compared to accepting a concession to its trading partner. |
| Keywords: | E-commerce; grocery; online shopping; bargaining; profit sharing |
| JEL: | L13 L63 L81 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125747&r= |
| By: | Mauro Caselli; Andrea Fracasso; Sergio Scicchitano; Silvio Traverso; Enrico Tundis |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the impact that the change in the exposure to robots had on the Italian local employment dynamics over the period 2011-2018. A novel empirical strategy focusing on a match between occupations’ activities and robots’ applications at a high level of disaggregation makes it possible to assess the impact of robotization on the shares of workers employed as robot operators and in occupations deemed exposed to robots. In a framework consistently centered on workers’ and robots’ activities, rather than on their industries of employment, the analysis reveals for the first time reinstatement e↵ects among robot operators and heterogeneous results among exposed occupations. |
| Keywords: | Robots, Employment, Activities, Tasks, Robot applications |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2021/06&r= |
| By: | Christophe Schalck; Meryem Schalck |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to provide new insights into French small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) failure prediction using a unique database of French SMEs over the 2012?2018 period including both financial and nonfinancial variables. We also include text variables related to the type of activity. We compare the predictive performance of three estimation methods: a dynamic Probit model, logistic Lasso regression, and XGBoost algorithm. The results show that the XGBoost algorithm has the highest performance in predicting business failure from a broad dataset. We use SHAP values to interpret the results and identify the main factors of failure. Our analysis shows that both financial and nonfinancial variables are failure factors. Our results confirm the role of financial variables in predicting business failure, while self-employment is the factor that most strongly increases the probability of failure. The size of the SME is also a business failure factor. Our results show that a number of nonfinancial variables, such as localization and economic conditions, are drivers of SME failure. The results also show that certain activities are associated with a prediction of lower failure probability while some activities are associated with a prediction of higher failure. |
| Keywords: | SME; failure prediction; Machine learning; XGBoost; SHAP values |
| JEL: | G33 C41 C46 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2021-009&r= |
| By: | Ellegård, Lina Maria (Dept of Economics, Lund University, Sweden); Kjellsson, Gustav (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Mattisson, Linn (Dept of Economics, Lund University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | The emergence of markets for online physician consultations -- direct-to-consumers telemedicine (DCT) -- is transforming healthcare services in many nations. The convenience of DCT lowers the cost of seeking care, thus potentially increasing demand. Yet, it is not known whether patients consuming online care turn to traditional providers as well. This is one of the first studies to causally assess to which degree online physician consultations substitute for in-person consultations. We exploit the rapid emergence of a DCT market and exogenous changes in patient fees in a fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities analysis of young adults in two Swedish regions. We find evidence in support of partial substitution and an increase in total physician consultations. |
| Keywords: | telemedicine; primary health care; co-payments; regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0808&r= |
| By: | Morgan Raux (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the complementarity between domestic and foreign skilled workers. It develops a simple model where employers seek to recruit a foreign worker when finding domestic workers takes more time. This paper confirms the predictions of the model. I rely on a within-firm within-occupation identification strategy to compare recruitment decisions made by a given employer for similar positions that differ in job posting duration. To identify this relationship, I have collected and assembled a new and original dataset at the job level. I match online job postings to administrative data on labor condition applications (LCAs) submitted as the first step in applying for H-1B temporary skilled worker visas. I find that employers are 28 percent more likely to submit an LCA when the job posting duration is one standard deviation longer. I provide evidence suggesting that this phenomenon is due to insufficient domestic labor supply in these occupations. |
| Keywords: | H-1B Work Permit, Hiring difficulties, Web Scraping. |
| JEL: | J61 J2 C26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:21-05&r= |
| By: | Christl, Michael; De Poli, Silvia; Kucsera, Dénes; Lorenz, Hanno |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on household income in Austria, using detailed administrative labor market data, in combination with micro-simulation techniques, that enable specic labor market transitions to be modeled. We find that discretionary fiscal policy measures in Austria are key to counteracting the inequality- and poverty-enhancing eect of COVID-19. Additionally, we find that females tend to experience a greater loss in terms of market income. The Austrian tax-benet system, however, reduces this gender dierences. Disposable income has dropped by around 1% for both males and females. By comparison, males profit mainly from short-time work scheme, while females profit especially from other discretionary policy measures, such as the one-off payment for children. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,short-time work scheme,labour market,inequality,EUROMOD,micro-simulation,STW,automatic stabilizers |
| JEL: | D31 E24 H24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:agawps:22&r= |
| By: | Anna Adamecz-Völgyi (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (KRTK KRTI), Toth Kalman u. 4, 1097 Budapest andUCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA); Morag Henderson (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA); Nikki Shure (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 27 Woburn Square, London WC1H 0AA and Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, D-53113 Bonn.) |
| Abstract: | We examine how first in family (FiF) graduates (those whose parents do not have university degrees) fare on the labor market in England. We find that among women, FiF graduates earn 7.4% less on average than graduate women whose parents have a university degree. For men, we do not find a FiF wage penalty. A decomposition of the wage difference between FiF and non-FiF graduates reveals that FiF men earn higher returns on their endowments than non-FiF men and thus compensate for their relative social disadvantage, while FiF women do not. We also show that a substantial share of the graduate gender wage gap is due to, on the one hand, women being more likely to be FiF than men and, on the other hand, that the FiF wage gap is gendered. We provide some context, offer explanations, and suggest implications of these findings. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic gaps, intergenerational educational mobility, higher education, labor market returns, gender economics |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2127&r= |
| By: | Marie, Olivier; Vall-Castello, Judit |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact on work absence of a massive reduction in paid sick leave benefits. We exploit a policy change that only affected public sector workers in Spain and compare changes in the number and length of spells they take relative to unaffected private sector workers. Our results highlight a large drop in frequency mostly offset by increases in average duration. Overall, the policy did reduce number of days lost to sick leave. For some, however, return to work may have been premature as we document huge increases in both the proportion of relapses and working accidents rates. |
| Keywords: | Absenteeism; Benefit Displacement; Negative Externalities; Paid Sick Leave; Presenteeism; Relapses Contagious Diseases; Sickness Insurance; Spain; Working Accidents |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 J22 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14899&r= |
| By: | Fritzell, Johan; Lennartsson, Carin; Zaidi, Asghar |
| Abstract: | The policy discourse on active ageing and well-being at the European level tends to have a strong focus on the experiences of the ‘young old’. In this study the focus instead is on the oldest old (75 years and older). The theoretical framework is inspired by the Active Ageing Index and the Nordic welfare research tradition. Active ageing and well-being indicators and domains of high relevance for the oldest old are used and a new Active Ageing-Well Being Index (AA-WB Index) is developed. Our aim is to go beyond averages and analyse changes over time and inequality in the AA-WB Index. The prime data is derived from two waves, 2004 and 2014, of the Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), a nationally representative sample of older people. The results show an overall improvement in most domains of the AA-WB index, especially in the indicator participation in cultural and leisure activities. The findings also show clear and consistent gender and educational inequalities. In addition, the different domains correlate, implying that inequality within a domain is aggravated by the inequality in another domain. The study highlights that measurements on active ageing and well-being should place a greater importance on the living conditions of the oldest old with a special focus on inequality. |
| Keywords: | active ageing; inequality; multidimensionality; oldest old; wellbeing; 2018- 01922; 2016-07206 |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110530&r= |
| By: | Mathilde Muñoz (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of top income tax rates on top earners' migration, using a novel individual dataset on mobility representative of the entire population of 21 European countries. I exploit the differential effects of changes in top tax rates on individuals at different earnings levels. Top earners' location choices are significantly affected by top income tax rates. The elasticity of the number of top earners with respect to the net-of-tax rate is between 0.1 and 0.3; it is above one for foreigners. Migration elasticities differ widely across member states, leading to different incentives to implement beggar-thy-neighbour tax policies within Europe. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03252899&r= |
| By: | Benedikt Janzen; Doina Maria Radulescu |
| Abstract: | In this paper we employ survey information on more than 10,000 Southern and Eastern European firms and panel data methods to assess the effects of the COVID-19-related lockdown and government support policies on the business operations of enterprises. Our findings reveal considerable size- and sector-related effect heterogeneity, with small firms, exporting firms and firms operating in the facility sector experiencing the largest losses in terms of sales. A complete lockdown leads to an average decrease in sales by approximately 64%. We also document a disproportionate impact on female self-employed. Furthermore, state aid in the form of deferral of payments or wage subsidies were the most effective government support instruments. For instance, wage subsidies saved up to 2.7 employees per firm in the surveyed enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, firms, government support policies, panel data methods |
| JEL: | D22 H12 H32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9116&r= |
| By: | Ana Sofia Pessoa |
| Abstract: | This paper documents earnings dynamics over the life-cycle and income level using a large administrative database from German tax records. I find that labor earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. For the bottom earners, large income changes are driven equally by hours and wages which is consistent with transitions between labor status or jobs, whereas for those at the top, earnings changes are mainly induced by wage rate growth. There are also asymmetries in mean reversion of earnings growth mainly driven by the asymmetric hours dynamics. Finally, there is no evidence of an added-worker effect but government insurance and income pooling can mitigate the pass-through of individual earnings changes to the household level and attenuate the deviations from normality of the male earnings growth distribution. |
| Keywords: | earnings dynamics, earnings risk, insurance, wages, hours, higher-order earnings risk, skewness, kurtosis |
| JEL: | E24 H24 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9117&r= |
| By: | Fabian Kindermann; Julia Le Blanc; Monika Piazzesi; Martin Schneider |
| Abstract: | This paper uses new household survey data to study expectation formation during the recent housing boom in Germany. The cross section of forecasts depends on only two household characteristics: location and tenure. The average household in a region responds to local conditions but underpredicts local price growth. Renters make on average higher and hence more accurate forecasts than owners, although their forecasts are more dispersed and their mean squared forecast errors are higher. A quantitative model of learning about housing cost can match these facts. It emphasizes the unique information structure of housing among asset markets: renters who do not own the asset are relatively well informed about its cash flow, since they pay for housing services that owners simply consume. Renters then make more accurate forecasts in a boom driven by an increase in rents and recovery from a financial crisis. |
| JEL: | E0 G0 R0 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28895&r= |