nep-eur New Economics Papers
on Microeconomic European Issues
Issue of 2020‒12‒14
29 papers chosen by
Giuseppe Marotta
Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia

  1. The effect of unemployment insurance benefits on (self-)employment: Two sides of the same coin? By Camarero Garcia, Sebastian; Hansch, Michelle
  2. Distant but Close in Sight. Firm-level Evidence on French-German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing By Thomas Grebel; Mauro Napoletano; Lionel Nesta
  3. Analysing Automobile Industry Supply Chains By William Connell Garcia; Magdalena Kizior; Wouter Simons
  4. Care-Arrangements and Parental Well-Being during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany By Zoch, Gundula; Bächmann, Ann-Christin; Vicari, Basha
  5. Unmet health care need and income-related horizontal equity in access during the COVID-19 pandemic By Davillas, Apostolos; Jones, Andrew M.
  6. Why so negative? Negative party positioning in spatial models of voting By Hoch, Felix; Kellermann, Kim Leonie
  7. "On the impact of European Union Cohesion Policy on regional support for the European project" By Enrique López-Bazo
  8. Birth in Hard Times When You Belong To Minorities By Bertoli, Paola; Grembi, Veronica; Nguyen, The Linh Bao
  9. Heterogeneity in effective VAT rates across native and migrant households in France, Germany and Spain By Christl, Michael; Papini, Andrea; Tumino, Alberto
  10. The Gender Aspect of Immigrants' Assimilation in Europe By Lee, Tae Hoon; Peri, Giovanni; Viarengo, Martina
  11. The Impact of ICT on Working from Home: Evidence from EU Countries By Jerbashian, Vahagn; Vilalta-Bufi, Montserrat
  12. To work or to study? Postmigration educational investments of adult refugees in Germany - evidence from a choice experiment By Damelang, Andreas; Kosyakova, Yuliya
  13. How representative are social partners in Europe? The role of dissimilarity By Martínez Matute, Marta; Martins, Pedro S.
  14. Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes By Alessandra Bonfiglioli; Rosario Crinò; Harald Fadinger; Gino Gancia
  15. Love Thy Neighbour? Brexit and Hate Crime By Carr, Joel; Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna; James, Jonathan; Vujic, Suncica
  16. Competing for jobs: How COVID-19 changes search behaviour in the labour market By Bauer, Anja; Keveloh, Kristin; Mamertino, Mariano; Weber, Enzo
  17. Human Capital, Good Government and Economic Development: Evidence from Italian Provinces. By Amendola, Adalgiso; Barra, Cristian; Zotti, Roberto
  18. Atypical combination of technologies in regional co-inventor networks By Milad Abbasiharofteh; Dieter F. Kogler; Balazs Lengyel; ;
  19. Antecedents of 'Grey Divorces' in Europe: The Role of Children and Grandchildren By Giammarco Alderotti; Cecilia Tomassini; Daniele Vignoli
  20. Intergroup contact and nation building: evidence from military service in Spain By González, Ignacio; Facchini, Gabriel; De Moragas, Antoni Italo; Caceres Delpiano, Julio
  21. Forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy in the year of Covid-19 By Francesca Di Iorio; Stefano Fachin
  22. Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories By CERQUA, AUGUSTO; LETTA, MARCO
  23. First Time Around: Local Conditions and Multi-dimensional Integration of Refugees By Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara; Felicitas Schikora
  24. The Stabilizing Effects of Economic Policies in Spain in Times of COVID-19 By José E. Boscá; Rafael Doménech; Javier Ferri; José R. García; Camilo Ulloa
  25. Private asset income in France: Is there a breakdown of intergenerational equity between 1979 and 2011? By Hippolyte d'Albis; Ikpidi Badji; Najat El Mekkaoui; Julien Navaux
  26. Sectoral productivity vis-Ã -vis the US and heterogeneity within the EU27: the role of firm size distribution and firm demographics By David Martinez Turegano
  27. The effect of technology transfers from public research institutes and universities on firm innovativeness By María García-Vega; Óscar Vicente-Chirivella
  28. The Links between Saving Rates, Income and Uncertainty: An Analysis based on the 2011 Household Budget Survey By Céline Antonin
  29. The Size of the Digital Economy in Finland and Its Impact on Taxation By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Koski, Heli; Kässi, Otto; Pajarinen, Mika; Valkonen, Tarmo; Hokkanen, Marja; Hyvönen, Noora; Koivusalo, Elina; Laaksonen, Jarno; Laitinen, Juha; Nyström, Enni

  1. By: Camarero Garcia, Sebastian; Hansch, Michelle
    Abstract: Although a relevant share of firms is created out of unemployment and current active labor market policies in Europe often subsidize unemployed individuals to start their own businesses, little is known about the role of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity for self-employment. By using Spanish administrative data including so far inaccessible information on self-employment, we exploit a reform-driven exogenous cut in UI benefits to identify its causal effect on general employment and decompose it into the effects on self-employment and re-employment. Exploiting a discontinuity in the UI benefit schedule which changed as a result of the 2012 Spanish labor market reform, we estimate the causal reform effects on the extensive margin of (self-)employment and on unemployment duration. We find heterogeneous effects on the extensive margin: while the job-finding rate increases, the startup rate decreases. Over different time horizons, the negative effect on self- employment (35-50%) outweighs the positive effect on employment (5-33%). Therefore, omitting self-employment as a counterfactual outcome might lead to overestimate general employment effects. Our UI benefit duration elasticity estimates indicate that reduced UI benefits extend unemployment duration for individuals transitioning into self-employment but shorten unemployment for individuals finding re-employment. These results might be relevant for the (optimal) design of UI systems.
    Keywords: Social Insurance,Self-Employment,Spain,Unemployment Insurance
    JEL: H75 J64 J65 J68 L26
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Thomas Grebel (Technische Universität Ilmenau, Germany); Mauro Napoletano (OFCE Sciences-Po; SKEMA Business School); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS; OFCE, SciencesPo; SKEMA Business School)
    Abstract: We study the productivity level distributions of manufacturing firms in France and Germany, and how these distributions evolved across the Great Recession. We show the presence of a systematic productivity advantage of German firms over French ones in the decade 2003-2013, but the gap has narrowed down after the Great Recession. Convergence is explained by the better growth performance of French firms in the post-recession period, especially of those located in the top percentiles of the productivity distribution. We also highlight the role of sectoral growth, firm size and export intensity in explaining the above convergence. In contrast, the contribution of allocative efficiency was small.
    Keywords: International productivity gaps, productivity distributions, firm level comparisons
    JEL: L10 N10 D24
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: William Connell Garcia; Magdalena Kizior; Wouter Simons
    Abstract: Analysing the automobile sector is important for understanding the evolution of many economies in the EU. This is because of the sector’s direct importance in terms of GDP and employment, its sensitivity to the economic cycle, as well as its extended role in the economy through supply chains. While our analysis covers all EU Member States, we focus particularly on France and Germany. The aim of this study is to evaluate recent trends in the automobile and related sectors using a global value chain (GVC) approach. Building on these results, we evaluate the potential impact across countries and sectors of a hypothetical negative demand shock for cars. We conclude the analysis by studying the current position of the automobile sector across countries in light of the transition towards electric vehicles. Our main finding confirms that carmakers in France and Germany have chosen different production strategies. While French carmakers have traditionally relied much more on offshoring final production, German car makers seems to have retained much more assembly at home, while offshoring intermediates to neighbouring countries. Moreover, we find that a hypothetical shock of 10% to the final demand for cars by EU consumers could lead to a 0.2% drop in total employment demand in France, placing it at the European average. Germany, however, would suffer from a greater loss of 0.7% in total employment demand. In view of the upcoming shift towards electric car technologies and autonomous driving, we find evidence suggesting that countries in the EU are lagging behind China and the US when it comes to the production of electric parts used in the car sector.
    JEL: C67 D57 F14 F17 L62
    Date: 2020–11
  4. By: Zoch, Gundula; Bächmann, Ann-Christin (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Vicari, Basha (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "This study examines the short-term consequences for care-arrangements and resulting changes in well-being among parents, who were affected by the closure of schools and institutional child-care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. By applying multinomial logistic regression models to novel panel data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS-Corona_CAWI_C2), the study finds that mothers play a key role in the ad-hoc care-arrangements during the COVID-19 pandemic confirming the traditional division of family work in German couples. Moreover, the results illustrate the importance of working conditions, especially the possibility of remote work, in the bargaining processes of parents. However, contrary to our assumptions, parents' well-being was not influenced by the chosen care-arrangement during the first months of the crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information also released (possibly different) as: LIfBi working paper (2020), 91 later released (possibly different) in: European Societies, (2020), online first, 1-14
    Keywords: Arbeitsbedingungen, Hausarbeit, erwerbstätige Männer, erwerbstätige Frauen, beruflicher Status, Kinderbetreuung, geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren, Pandemie, Arbeitsteilung, Eltern, soziale Ungleichheit, Kinder, Mütter, Väter, Nationales Bildungspanel
    Date: 2020–11–17
  5. By: Davillas, Apostolos; Jones, Andrew M.
    Abstract: Using monthly data from the Understanding Society (UKHLS) COVID-19 Survey we analyse the evolution of unmet need and assess how the UK health care system performed against the norm of horizontal equity in health care access during the first wave of COVID-19 wave. Unmet need was most evident for hospital care, and less pronounced for primary health services (medical helplines, GP consultations, local pharmacist advice, over the counter medications and prescriptions). Despite this, there is no evidence that horizontal equity, with respect to income, was violated for NHS hospital outpatient and inpatient care during the first wave of the pandemic. There is evidence of pro-rich inequities in access to GP consultations, prescriptions and medical helplines at the peak of the first wave, but these were eliminated as the pandemic progressed. There are persistent pro-rich inequities for services that relate to individuals' ability to pay (over the counter medications and advice from the local pharmacist).
    Keywords: inequity,COVID-19,unmet need,health care,UKHLS
    JEL: C1 D63 I14
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Hoch, Felix; Kellermann, Kim Leonie
    Abstract: Why should political parties say what they do not want instead of saying what they want? In this paper, we introduce the concept of negative positioning into spatial models of voting and discuss its relevance as a campaigning tool in European multiparty systems. By negative positioning, we refer to the rejection, denial or criticism of opposing positions on a political issue scale without providing information on what a party's own position is instead. We argue that negative positioning is an attractive tool in reaction to high issue salience among voters as it allows to acknowledge the respective issue without costly commitment to or design of own policy proposals. We provide a first empirical test of our concept for elections held in 26 European countries between 2002 and 2018, examining immigration as an issue with a highly volatile salience. We use data on voter issue salience from the Eurobarometer and on party positions from the Manifesto Project Database. Indeed we find that if an issue is highly salient among voters, parties increase the share of negative positioning on that issue in their manifestos. Interestingly, negative positioning is more prevalent among smaller, opposition and extreme parties.
    Keywords: issue salience,party positioning,negative positioning,negative campaigning
    JEL: C33 D71 D72 D78
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Enrique López-Bazo (AQR-IREA Research Group, University of Barcelona. Av. Diagonal 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.)
    Abstract: Cohesion Policy is the main policy tool of the European Union and the backbone of its regional policy. Given its characteristics, it is the EU policy with the greatest impact on the daily life of European citizens and can compensate population groups and places less favoured by the European integration process. As a result, the implementation of Cohesion Policy in a region is expected to shape the degree of regional support for the process of European integration. This study tests this assumption using regional data for the EU28 in a period that includes the recent phases of expansion and recession, in a scenario characterized by growing anti-EU rhetoric. The results suggest that a greater amount of EU funds spent in the region does not stimulate regional support for the Union. However, an appropriate temporal distribution of the resources allocated to the region could have a positive effect on support.
    Keywords: Cohesion policy, Regional policy, Attitudes towards the EU, Structural funds, EU regions. JEL classification: H54, 018, R10, R58.
    Date: 2020–12
  8. By: Bertoli, Paola; Grembi, Veronica; Nguyen, The Linh Bao
    Abstract: Combining a unique dataset of birth records with municipal-level real estate infor- mation, we assess the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrant newborns in Italy. Health at birth (e.g., low birth weight) of immigrants deteriorated more than health at birth of Italians. The negative effects on immigrants are not equally dis- tributed across ethnicities, but rather they are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnicity and its related network at the municipal level. Immigrants whose ethnicity is mainly employed in the sectors most affected during the recession, suffered the most. By contrast, the recession hardship is mitigated for immigrants in municipalities where their ethnic network is organized through more registered immigrant associations. The characteristics of ethnic groups and their organization at the municipal level do not explain the heterogeneous effects on Italian newborns and this confirms network rather than neighborhood effects.
    Keywords: Recessions,Immigrants,Low birth weight,Premature babies,Networks
    JEL: I1 I12 J15 J60
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Christl, Michael; Papini, Andrea; Tumino, Alberto
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on the distributional properties of VAT analysing who bears higher VAT payments between native and migrant household in France, Germany and Spain. The question is of interest both from a distributional and fiscal perspective, fitting the ongoing debate of the net fiscal impact of immigration. Using data from the 2010 EU HBS and a simple VAT calculator we show the existence of gaps in effective VAT rates between native and migrant households in France and in Spain, while no significant gap is observed in Germany. Our results also confirm the existing evidence on the regressivity of VAT with respect to income. These findings suggest that the fairness consequences of VAT reforms should be carefully assessed and advocate for the importance of considering indirect taxation when assessing the fiscal cost of migration.
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Lee, Tae Hoon (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Peri, Giovanni (University of California, Davis); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: The labor market performance of immigrants relative to natives has been widely studied but its gender dimension has been relatively neglected. Our paper aims at revisiting labor market convergence between immigrants and natives and examining this under-studied dimension in a comprehensive study of the EU-15 countries and Switzerland over the period 1999-2018. We measure convergence of labor market outcomes for male and female migrants to similar natives before and after the Great Recession and across countries of destination. Our results show that in most countries female migrants start with a larger employment gap but converge more rapidly than male migrants do. We also provide a broad overview of the role of potential factors such as economic conditions, labor markets structure, institutions and attitudes towards immigrants and women and their association with employment convergence of all immigrants and female immigrants specifically. While the analysis provides an interesting insight, we do not identify very significant factors at the national level. We find a very strong correlation between attitudes towards immigrants and their employment convergence across sub-national regions.
    Keywords: international migration, labor market integration, gender gaps
    JEL: J61 J00 J16
    Date: 2020–12
  11. By: Jerbashian, Vahagn; Vilalta-Bufi, Montserrat
    Abstract: We use data from 14 European countries and provide evidence that the fall in prices of information and communication technologies (ICT) is associated with a significant increase in the share of employees who work from home. Similar results hold within age, gender, and occupation groups. There are notable differences across age groups, however. The effect of the fall in ICT prices on working from home increases with age. A rationale for such a result is that the preference for working from home increases with age.
    Keywords: Working from Home,ICT,Age,Gender,Occupations
    JEL: J23 J24 O33
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Damelang, Andreas; Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "In this article, we analyze individual factors and situational conditions under which immigrants are more or less likely to invest in host country-specific human capital. Theoretically, we root our ex-pectations in a strand of the immigrant human capital investment model combined with a basic model of educational decisions. Using a choice experiment, we simulate a decision process among refugees in Germany and examine the determinants of investment decisions into host country-specific credentials such as vocational education. The choice experiment was introduced in the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees (2020), a representative longitudinal survey of recently arrived refugees in Germany. We find that refugees' probability of investing in vocational education is guided by the transferability of foreign human capital, the time horizon to reap investments, and rational cost-benefit considerations. The probability of success is influential on its own but also bolsters the relevance of costs and benefits in educational choices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Geflüchtete, Bildungsinvestitionen, berufliche Integration, Entscheidungsfindung, Berufsausbildung, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten, Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse, berufliche Qualifikation, Gleichwertigkeit, Determinanten, Erwartung, Aufenthaltsdauer, Rückwanderungsbereitschaft
    JEL: I24 I26 J24 J61 F22
    Date: 2020–10–19
  13. By: Martínez Matute, Marta; Martins, Pedro S.
    Abstract: Social partners (trade unions and employers' associations) shape labour institutions and economic and social outcomes in many countries. In this paper, we argue that, when examining social partners' representativeness, it is important to consider both affiliation and dissimilarity measures. The latter concerns the extent to which affiliated and non- affiliated firms or workers are distributed similarly across relevant dimensions, including firm size. In our analysis of European Company Survey data, we find that affiliation and dissimilarity measures correlate positively across countries, particularly in the case of employers' associations. This result also holds across employers' associations when we use firm population data for Portugal. Overall, we conclude that higher affiliation rates do not necessarily equate to more representative social partners as they can involve greater dissimilarity between affiliated and non-affiliated firms.
    Keywords: Employers' Associations,Social Dialogue,Collective Bargaining
    JEL: J50 J23 L22
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Alessandra Bonfiglioli; Rosario Crinò; Harald Fadinger; Gino Gancia
    Abstract: We use French data over the 1994-2013 period to study how imports of industrial robots affect fi rm-level outcomes. Compared to other fi rms operating in the same 5- digit sector, robot importers are larger, more productive, and employ a higher share of managers and engineers. Over time, robot import occurs after periods of expansion in fi rm size, and is followed by improvements in effciency and a fall in demand for labor. Guided by a simple model, we develop various empirical strategies to identify the causal effects of robot adoption. Our results suggest that, while demand shocks generate a positive correlation between robot imports and employment, exogenous changes in automation lead to job losses. We also fi nd that robot imports increase productivity and the employment share of high-skill professions, but have a weak effect on total sales. The latter result suggests that productivity gains from automation may not be entirely passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices.
    Keywords: Automation, Displacement, Firms, Robots
    JEL: J23 J24 O33 D22
    Date: 2020–11
  15. By: Carr, Joel (University of Antwerp); Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); James, Jonathan (University of Bath); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp)
    Abstract: We provide causal evidence of the impact of the Brexit referendum vote on hate crime in the United Kingdom (UK). Using various data sources, including unique data collected from the UK Police Forces by Freedom of Information (FOI) requests, and various estimation methods (difference-in-differences, event-study analysis and synthetic control methods), we find that the Brexit referendum led to an increase in hate crime by around 15-25%. This effect was concentrated in the first quarter after the referendum and was larger in areas that voted to leave the European Union (EU). We also provide evidence against the hypotheses that this was due to victims' greater willingness to report crimes or due to changes in police behaviour and perceptions of the victims. We also present suggestive evidence that the media and social media played a small but significant role in the increase in hate crime.
    Keywords: Brexit, referendum vote, hate crime, synthetic control method
    JEL: D72 J15 K42
    Date: 2020–11
  16. By: Bauer, Anja (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Keveloh, Kristin; Mamertino, Mariano; Weber, Enzo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "Little is known so far about how the corona crisis has changed search processes in the labour market. We provide insights on labour market competition, reallocation of applications and potential sullying effects by analysing data from the LinkedIn professional network for Germany. We find that competition among workers for jobs strongly increased. The data allow us to trace that back to additional job seekers rather than higher search intensity. Furthermore, the LinkedIn data show that people from industries particularly affected by the crisis apply much more frequently and there has been a substantial shift in the target industries for applications. Finally, we find that during the crisis applications are made significantly more often below and significantly less often above a person's level of seniority." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Pandemie, Auswirkungen, Arbeitsuche, Arbeitsuchende, Wettbewerb, sektorale Verteilung, Überqualifikation, unterwertige Beschäftigung, Bewerbungsverhalten, matching, Verhaltensänderung, Kurzarbeit, Entlassungen, beruflicher Abstieg
    JEL: J60 E24
    Date: 2020–10–26
  17. By: Amendola, Adalgiso; Barra, Cristian; Zotti, Roberto (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Whether the increase in a region's economic activity could be attributable to the presence of a university is an important issue in economic geography. This paper uses the age of universities (some dating back to the 11th and 12th century) along with grants from private foundations and student's fees as instruments for human capital production, to estimate the impact of universities' degree production on the economic development in context of Italy. We furthermore test whether institutions, in terms of voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption, may play an important moderating role in the human capital production-local economic development relationship. The findings firstly reveal the beneficial e ect of the university system on local economic development through the gain in human capital. Secondly, we argue that the development of high quality legal and administrative institutions is an important channel linking universities to greater economic activity.
    Date: 2020–10
  18. By: Milad Abbasiharofteh; Dieter F. Kogler; Balazs Lengyel; ;
    Abstract: Novel combinations of technologies are generated from existing knowledge embedded in collaborative work. Albeit inventors tend to develop specialized skills and participate in specialized work, it is their collaboration with peers with varied experience that facilitates the production of radical novelty. While this is of key importance, we lack full understanding on how the evolution of inventor collaborations is related to the nature of technological combination. In this paper, we analyse how the role of technological specialization and variety in evolving co-inventor networks is related to the creation of ‘atypical’ inventions in European NUTS2 regions. By analysing the community structure of co-inventor networks in each region, we find that the share of atypical patents is growing where co-inventor communities are strongly specialized in certain technologies and these communities are also bridged by collaborations. Evidence suggests that linking communities of dissimilar technological profiles favours atypical knowledge production the most. Our work implies that to produce radical innovative outcomes, regions must support knowledge production in specialized inventor communities and sponsor the bridging of collaborations to induce diversity.
    Keywords: patents, novelty, network communities, technological similarity, network of places
    JEL: F23 D85
    Date: 2020–11
  19. By: Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Cecilia Tomassini (Università del Molise); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: So-called 'grey divorces' – i.e. voluntary union dissolutions after age 50 – have received growing attention in the press as well as non-academic discourse. Nonetheless, while there is a vast amount of research on the socio-demographic, health-related and economic consequences of divorce at older ages, few studies have analysed the trends and correlates of grey divorces. Moreover, these studies are largely limited to the United States. This paper aims to fill this gap using data from six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We document the antecedents of divorce in later life across Europe, shedding light on a rare but demographically and sociologically interesting phenomenon. Our results show that the determinants of grey divorce largely do not differ from the classical antecedents of divorce early in life. However, we also detected and discuss a few determinants specific to grey divorces, such as the presence of children and grandchildren.
    Keywords: Grey divorces; Union dissolution; Children; Grandchildren; Ageing; Europe
    JEL: J12
    Date: 2020–12
  20. By: González, Ignacio; Facchini, Gabriel; De Moragas, Antoni Italo; Caceres Delpiano, Julio
    Abstract: We study the long-term effects of intergroup contact on nation building by exploiting a national lottery that randomly allocated conscripts to different military areas across Spain. For men born in regions featuring a strong regional identity, we find that being assigned to military service in a region different from one's region of birth substantially increases self-identification as Spanish and reduces the likelihood of voting for a regionalist party. Moreover, in support of intergroup contact as the main mechanism behind these results, we find that movers are more likely to have friends from another region than nonmovers
    Keywords: Military Service; Intergroup Contact; Nation Building
    JEL: J15 D71 D02
    Date: 2020–11–30
  21. By: Francesca Di Iorio (University of Naples Federico II); Stefano Fachin ("Sapienza" University of Rome)
    Abstract: Forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy is an issue of critical importance made arguably more dicult by the e ects of current Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper we compare the performances of a simple random walk model (benchmark), three variants of the standard Lee-Carter model (Lee-Carter, Lee-Miller, Booth-Maindonald-Smith), the Hyndman-Ullah functional data analysys model, and a general factor model. We use both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, as the latter are arguably more suitable to capture preferences of forecast users such as insurance companies and pension and health system planners. In a counterfactual study, designed exploiting the particular features of Italian data, we reproduce the likely impact of Covid-19 on forecasts using 2020 as a jump-off year. To put the results in perspective, we also carry out out a general assessment on 1950-2016 data for three countries with very diverse demographic profiles, France, Italy and USA. While the results with these latter datasets suggest that in normal conditions the Lee-Miller and Hyndman-Ullah models are somehow superior,from the counterfactual study the best option appears to be the Booth-Maindonald- Smith model.
    Keywords: Mortality forecasting, life expectancy forecasting, Lee-Carter, factor model, Covid-19.
    JEL: C12 C33 C55
    Date: 2020–11
    Abstract: Impact evaluations of the microeconomic effects of the COVID-19 upheavals are essential but nonetheless highly challenging. Data scarcity and identification issues due to the ubiquitous nature of the exogenous shock account for the current dearth of counterfactual studies. To fill this gap, we combine up-to-date quarterly local labor markets (LLMs) data, collected from the Business Register kept by the Italian Chamber of Commerce, with the machine learning control method for counterfactual building. This allows us to shed light on the pandemic impact on the local economic dynamics of one of the hardest-hit countries, Italy. We document that the shock has already caused a moderate drop in employment and firm exit and an abrupt decrease in firm entry at the country level. More importantly, these effects have been dramatically uneven across the Italian territory and spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. We then use the estimated individual treatment effects to investigate the main predictors of such unbalanced patterns, finding that the heterogeneity of impacts is primarily associated with interactions among the exposure of economic activities to high social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. These results call for immediate place- and sector-based policy responses.
    Keywords: impact evaluation; counterfactual approach; machine learning; local labor markets; firms; COVID-19; Italy
    JEL: C53 D22 E24 R12
    Date: 2020–11–26
  23. By: Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London); Panu Poutvaara (University of Munich and Ifo); Felicitas Schikora (Freie Universität Berlin and DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: We study the causal effect of local labor market conditions and attitudes towards immigrants at the time of arrival on refugees’ multi-dimensional integration outcomes (economic, linguistic, navigational, political, psychological, and social). Using a unique dataset on refugees, we leverage a centralized allocation policy in Germany where refugees were exogenously assigned to live in specific counties. We find that high initial local unemployment negatively affects refugees’ economic and social integration: they are less likely to be in education or employment and they earn less. We also show that favorable attitudes towards immigrants promote refugees’ economic and social integration. The results suggest that attitudes toward immigrants are as important as local unemployment rates in shaping refugees’ integration outcomes. Using a machine learning classifier algorithm, we find that our results are driven by older people and those with secondary or tertiary education. Our findings highlight the importance of both initial economic and social conditions for facilitating refugee integration, and have implications for the design of centralized allocation policies.
    Keywords: International migration, refugees, integration, allocation policy
    JEL: F22 J15 J24
    Date: 2020–12
  24. By: José E. Boscá; Rafael Doménech; Javier Ferri; José R. García; Camilo Ulloa
    Abstract: In this article we analyse the stabilizing role of economic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in Spain. First, we estimate the contribution of the structural shocks that explain the behaviour of the main macroeconomic aggregates during 2020, using a DSGE model estimated for the Spanish economy. Our results highlight the importance of supply and demand shocks in explaining the COVID-19 crisis. Second, we have simulated a counterfactual scenario for GDP in absence of the COVID-19 economic policy measures. According to our results, the annual fall in GDP moderates at least by 7.6 points in the most intense period of the crisis, thanks to these stabilizing policies. Finally, we have estimated the potential effects of Next Generation EU in the Spanish economy. Assuming that Spain may receive from the EU between 1.5 and 2.25 percentage points of GDP in grants and loans from 2021 to 2024, to finance mainly public investment, GDP could increase between 2 and 3 pp in 2024. All these results show the usefulness of a DSGE model like EREMS, as a practical tool for the applied economic analysis and understanding of the Spanish economy.
    Date: 2020–12
  25. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Najat El Mekkaoui (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (uOttawa - University of Ottawa [Ottawa])
    Abstract: We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate private asset income by age for the years 1979–2011. We analyze age profiles using three indicators of intergenerational equity. Monetary asset income shows no evidence of generational breaks to the benefit of the baby‐boom generation. On the contrary, baby‐boomers suffered from the high interest rates that they paid to become homeowners. Imputed rents show an obvious breakdown of intergenerational equity when we use an inter‐age and intergenerational indicator. This indicator compares the per capita asset income at a given age with the average asset income of people aged 18‐85. It gives the relative situation of one age group compared to its contemporaries and it also gives the relative situation of one generation when we compare birth cohorts over time. We find that the cohort born in 1950 benefited from a better position than their successors. Moreover, the cohorts born before the war and during the war appear to be even more favored than the baby‐boomers. The cohorts born in 1930 and in 1940 have a better situation than the previous generations and a better position than the following generations.
    Keywords: National Transfer Accounts,Private Asset Income,Intergenerational Equity
    Date: 2020–10
  26. By: David Martinez Turegano (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Labour productivity growth in developed economies has slowed down during the last decade relative to the pre-Great Recession period. The EU27 has been no exception to this trend, keeping both a large negative gap relative to the US and strong country heterogeneity following an uneven convergence process between Member States. Based on these stylized facts, in this paper we investigate which are the main explanatory variables accounting for productivity heterogeneity within the EU, both in level and growth terms. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest a number of areas in which action seems to be warranted, improving technological adoption, increasing innovation intensity, boosting the capital triad (human, tangible and intangible assets), and, with respect to the two micro-structural characteristics we put a focus on, eliminating barriers to growth in firm size and facilitating the entry and exit of enterprises. These same recommendations are even more valid in the specific case of business services, for which productivity performance and convergence seem more sensitive to progress in those policy areas.
    Keywords: Productivity, convergence, sectoral heterogeneity, firm structure, business demographics.
    JEL: E24 J24 L11 O47
    Date: 2020–11
  27. By: María García-Vega; Óscar Vicente-Chirivella
    Abstract: Public research institutes and universities receive large amounts of public funds for the generation and transmission of knowledge. In this paper, we assess the differential impact of technology transfers from public research institutes versus technology transfers from universities on firm innovativeness. We use information of R&D acquisitions from a panel dataset of more than 10,000 Spanish firms from 2005 to 2014. Using matching and difference-in-difference estimators, we show that technology transfers from both organizations increase firm innovativeness. Our results suggest that the knowledge generated by public research institutes is particularly beneficial to firms with high levels of absorptive capacity. In contrast, the knowledge transferred by universities is relatively more beneficial to firms with low levels of absorptive capacities. Hence, public funds for public research institutes are especially important for the R&D intensive private sector. Therefore, the degree of absorptive capacities of the participating firms is important to design public programs that maximize the efficiency of public technology transfers.
    Keywords: Public Research Institutes; Universities; Technology Transfers; Firm innovativeness.
    Date: 2020
  28. By: Céline Antonin (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Using data from the 2010-2011 Insee Household Budget Survey (enquête Budget de famille), the article examines the links between the saving rate of French households and their income. It shows that the saving rate of the richest households increases with permanent income: they save more over their lifecycle. In addition, the empirical analysis makes it possible to identify and quantify a precautionary motive linked to the risk of unemployment: the precautionary motive leads to a surplus of savings flows of approximately 6.4% for working households. Furthermore, the proportion of precautionary wealth linked to uncertainty over future income is comparable, around 6.3% of overall wealth. Finally, the significance of the precautionary motive depends on the level of income, following an inverted U-shaped curve: it is almost twice as strong for households in the third and fourth quintiles than for the extreme income quintiles.
    Keywords: Saving rate; Consumption; Permanent income; Precautionary savings; Unemployment
    JEL: C81 D12 D14 D31
    Date: 2019
  29. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Koski, Heli; Kässi, Otto; Pajarinen, Mika; Valkonen, Tarmo; Hokkanen, Marja; Hyvönen, Noora; Koivusalo, Elina; Laaksonen, Jarno; Laitinen, Juha; Nyström, Enni
    Abstract: Abstract This report sheds light on the size and composition of the digital economy in Finland and its impact on the tax gap and tax system. No generally agreed definition of digital economy exists, and only a few prior studies have assessed the size of the digital economy quantitatively. We measured the size of the digital economy by the value added generated by digitally produced goods and services. We first replicated the analysis of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) using Finnish data by assessing the value added of fully digital products. Secondly, we also took into account in our calculations the value added of partly digital products. Our analysis shows that the share of value added generated by the digital economy in Finland has grown at a relatively slow pace during the 2010s. Our calculations indicate that the digital economy comprised 10.9% of the GDP in Finland in 2017, or over EUR 21 billion euros. We further aimed at assessing the size of the corporate income tax (CIT), the value added tax (VAT) and the personal income tax (PIT) gaps generated by the digital economy in Finland. An attempt to make a full CIT gap analysis failed due to the unavailability of industry-level national accounts data. Data on the accrued VAT from the most recent years was not available but the observations from the earlier years did not reveal tax gaps. Our data collected via a survey targeted at digital freelance workers hints that, in general, Finnish digital freelancers comply with taxation rather well and no notable PIT tax gap is generated.
    Keywords: Digitalization, Digital economy, Taxation, Tax gap
    JEL: H2 H26 O33 O5
    Date: 2020–12–01

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