|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
|
Issue of 2020‒11‒16
thirty-one papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | LUPPI, FRANCESCA; Rosina, Alessandro (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart); Sironi, Emiliano |
| Abstract: | With the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic all over Europe during the first months of 2020, most of the European governments imposed restrictive measures to people mobility and physical distance (the lockdown), which severely impacted on the economic activities and performance of many countries. Thus, the health emergency turned rapidly into in an economic crisis. The Covid-19 crisis in Europe increased the uncertainty about the economic recovery and the end of the health emergency. This situation is supposed to have conditioned individuals’ life course path with the effect of inducing people to postpone or to abandon many life plans. This paper aims to explore whether the rise of health emergency due to the Covid-19 has delayed or vanished young people intention to leave the parental home during the 2020 in five European countries: Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK. Using data from an international survey from the “Youth Project”, carried out by the Toniolo Institute of Advanced Studies, this paper implements ordered logistic models in order to investigate the determinants of a possible revision of the choice of leaving the parental home for a representative sample of 6,000 respondents aged 18 to 34, interviewed between March and April 2020. A special focus has been pointed on the Italian case, because of being the first European country to be strongly hit by the pandemic and because of the already economic vulnerable conditions of its young population. Results reports that Italy is the country with the highest rate of downward revisions of the intentions of leaving the nest. In particular, having negative expectations about changes in the individual’s and family’s future income is a key predictor of the choice of abandoning the purpose of leaving the parental home across Europe. However, the vulnerability of the category of temporary workers arises especially in Italy: young people with precarious jobs seems to be the most prone to negatively revise their intentions of leaving, even compared with those not working. |
| Date: | 2020–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9y6s5&r=all |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Ralf Martin; Mirabelle Muûls; Ulrich J. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Market-based regulatory instruments hold the promise of correcting market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. We evaluate the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - the world's first and largest market-based climate policy. Using administrative data on almost 4,000 French manufacturing firms, we estimate that the EU ETS induced regulated firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 8-12% compared to unregulated firms after the Pilot phase, a necessary condition for climate change mitigation. These reductions account for 26% of the concurrent decline in aggregate industrial emission in France. We do not estimate any negative effects on the scale of production; instead we find that firms reduced the emissions intensity of value added by making targeted investments. We find no evidence that firms outsourced production to unregulated firms or markets. Collectively, these findings suggest that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. |
| Keywords: | Emissions Trading System, carbon leakage, investment, climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 H23 L50 F18 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_232&r=all |
| By: | Anna Laura Baraldi (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli); Giovanni Immordino (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Marco Stimolo (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli) |
| Abstract: | We test a neglected implication of women’s higher risk aversion: i.e., organized crime infiltration, increasing the perceived risk of entering politics, can prove more effective in discouraging highly qualified women to run for election compared to men. We constructed a data set based on yearly observations of 1,608 Italian municipalities in the 1985–2016 period. Exploiting the exogenous shock of municipal government dissolution for mafia infiltration, we robustly identify a stronger negative effect of organized crime activity on female politicians than on male. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Organized crime, Politician’s quality, Municipal government. |
| JEL: | J16 H70 K42 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:586&r=all |
| By: | Campigotto, Nicola; Rapallini, Chiara; Rustichini, Aldo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of school friendship networks among adolescents, proposing a model of network formation and estimating it using a sample (CILS4EU) of about 10,000 secondary school students in four countries: England, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. We test the idea that networks arise according to homophily along many characteristics (gender, school achievement and ethnic and cultural backgrounds), and assess the relative importance of each factor. In addition to gender, we find that country of origin, generational status and religion predict friendship for foreign-born students. For country-born individuals, ties depend on a broader set of factors, including socioeconomic status and school achievement. In sum, homophilic preferences go considerably beyond ethnicity. Multiculturalism, which gives prominence to ethnic backgrounds, risks emphasising the differences in that dimension at the expense of affinity in others. |
| Keywords: | Friendship,Homophily,Immigration,Networks,Social cohesion |
| JEL: | D85 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:695&r=all |
| By: | Luca Corazzini; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of attending early childcare on immigrant children's cognitive outcomes. Our analysis makes use of administrative data on the entire population of students in the fth grade, collected by the Italian Institute for the Evaluation of the Educational System (INVALSI) for school years 2014/2015 to 2016/2017, matched to unique administrative records on early childcare availability at the municipal level. Our identication strategy exploits cross-sectional and time series variation in the provision of early childcare service across Italian municipalities as an instrument for individual attendance. Our results point out that the effect of early childcare attendance differs between native and immigrant children. Estimates show a positive and signicant effect on the language test scores of immigrant children, with the effect being mostly driven by females, by children with low-educated mothers and by children who, at home, speak a language highly dissimilar to Italian. Unlike immigrants, native students are negatively impacted by early childcare attendance, as reected in both language and math test scores. Effects are stronger on math test scores for females and for children with highly educated mothers. |
| Keywords: | Childcare, Cognitive skills, Immigrant children, IV. |
| JEL: | J13 J15 H75 I20 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:452&r=all |
| By: | Heijs, Joost; Guerrero, Alex J.; Huergo, Elena |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to offer a broad profile of firms with publicly supported R&D projects, which allows us to explain their different degrees of additionality. With this objective, in a first step we use standard Propensity Score Matching techniques to estimate treatment effects at the firm level, and then we explore the determinants of the heterogeneity in these individual effects through the estimation of an equation for their determinants. For our analysis, we use information from a sample of 8,168 Spanish firms for the period 2007-2014. We report three main results. First, firms with multiple program participation show higher additionality. However, individual treatment effects, which are positive for firms with low support intensities, go sharply below the average for firms with very high support intensities. Second, the degree of additionality is positively related to firm characteristics denoting a more innovative nature, while it is negatively associated with features present in firms involved in more market-oriented R&D projects. Third, firm size has a positive relation to the probability of full additionality, but a negative association with the degree of additionality in terms of net R&D intensity. These results can provide public agencies with some tools for adjusting their selection procedures. |
| Keywords: | R&D support; policy evaluation; heterogeneous treatment effects; propensity score matching |
| JEL: | L25 O32 |
| Date: | 2020–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103874&r=all |
| By: | Anderberg, Dan (Royal Holloway, University of London); Chevalier, Arnaud (Royal Holloway, University of London); Hassani Nezhad, Lena (affiliation not available); Lührmann, Melanie (Royal Holloway, University of London); Pavan, Ronni (University of Rochester) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of higher education financing on the academic aspirations of teenagers and of their parents. We exploit a reform which introduced a large increase in the maximum university tuition fees and a more redistributive student loan system, both of which varied across the UK's constituent countries. Using rare survey data on postcompulsory secondary and university education aspirations, we find that teenagers' aspirations are not responsive to large changes in higher education financing. In contrast, the socio-economic gap in parental aspirations for their childrens' education is reduced through the reform, in accordance with the redistributive financing policies set by policy-makers. |
| Keywords: | education aspirations, university cost, access to higher education |
| JEL: | I23 I22 I24 J24 D84 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13807&r=all |
| By: | Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Sara Pinoli (Bank of Italy); Paola Rossi (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Scopelliti Author-Workplace-European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics; University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the diversification of funding sources on the financing conditions for firms. We exploit a regulatory reform which took place in Italy in 2012, i.e., the introduction of “minibonds”, which opened a new market-based funding opportunity for unlisted firms. Using the Italian Credit Register, we investigate the impact of minibond issuance on bank credit conditions for issuer firms, both at the firm-bank and firm-level. We compare new loans granted to issuer firms with new loans concurrently granted to similar non-issuer firms. We find that issuer firms obtain lower interest rates on bank loans of the same maturity than non-issuer firms, suggesting an improvement in their bargaining power with the banks. In addition, issuer firms reduce the amount of used bank credit but increase the overall amount of available external funds, pointing to a substitution with bank credit and to a diversification of corporate funding sources. Studying their ex-post performance, we find that issuer firms expand their total assets and fixed assets, and also raise their leverage. |
| Keywords: | bank credit; capital markets; minibonds; loan pricing; SME finance. |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2093&r=all |
| By: | Maria Lucia Pace (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy); Dan Liu (Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation (CHERE), University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia); Maria Goddard (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Rowena Jacobs (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Raphael Wittenberg (London School of Economics and Political Science, UK); Gerard McGonigal (Department of Medicine for the Elderly, York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, York, UK); Anne Mason (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, UK) |
| Abstract: | Background. Since 2010, adult social care spending has fallen significantly in real terms whilst demand has risen. Reductions in local authority (LA) budgets are expected to have had spill over effects on the demand for healthcare in the English NHS. Motivation. If older people, including those with dementia, have unmet needs for social care, their use of healthcare may increase. Methods. We assembled a panel dataset of 150 LAs, aggregating individual-level data where appropriate. We tested the impact of changes in LA social care resources, which was measured in two ways: expenditure and workforce. The effects on people aged 65+ were assessed on five outcomes |
| Keywords: | Social care, Healthcare, Dementia, Local authority, Cost Shifting |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chy:respap:174cherp&r=all |
| By: | Federico Crudu; Laura Neri; Silvia Tiezzi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of overweight family members on weight outcomes of Italian children aged 6 to 14 years. We use an original dataset matching the 2012 cross sections of the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey and the House hold Budget Survey. Since the identification of within-family peer effects is known to be challenging, we implement our analysis on a partially identified model using inferential procedures recently introduced in the literature and based on standard Bayesian computation methods. We find evidence of a strong, positive effect of both overweight peer children in the family and of overweight adults on children weight outcomes. The impact of overweight peer children in the household is larger than the impact of adults. In particular, the estimated confidence sets associated to the peer children variable is positive with upper bound around one or larger, while the confidence sets for the parameter associated to obese adults often include zero and have upper bound that rarely is larger than one. |
| Keywords: | child obesity; confidence sets; partial identification; peer effects within the family |
| JEL: | I12 C15 C21 C35 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:845&r=all |
| By: | Champeaux, Hugues (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Mangiavacchi, Lucia; Marchetta, Francesca (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Piccoli, Luca |
| Abstract: | School closures, forced by the COVID-19 crisis in many countries, impacted on children's lives and their learning process. There will likely be substantial and persistent disparities between families in terms of educational outcomes. Distant learning solutions adopted by schools have been heterogeneous over countries, within countries and between school levels. As a consequence, most of the burden of children's learning fell on their parents, with likely uneven results depending on the socio-economic characteristics of the family. Using a real time survey data collected in April 2020 and early May in France and Italy, we estimate child fixed effects models to analyze how the lockdown has affected children's emotional wellbeing and their home learning process. The analysis also focuses on the role played by online classes or other interactive methods on children's home learning and emotional status. We find that the lockdown had a stronger negative effect on boys, on kids attending kindergarten (in Italy) or secondary school (in France), and on children whose parents have a lower education level. We also find that the increase in the time spent in front of screen is correlated to a worse learning achievement and emotional status, while the opposite is true for the time spent reading. The use of interactive distance learning methodologies, that has been much more common in Italy than in France, appears to significantly attenuate the negative impact on lockdown on the learning progresses of both Italian and French kids. |
| Keywords: | distance learning, education inequality, children's education, children's time-use, emotional skills, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13819&r=all |
| By: | Giulio Cornelli; Sebastian Doerr; Leonardo Gambacorta; Ouarda Merrouche |
| Abstract: | Policymakers around the world are adopting regulatory sandboxes as a tool for spurring innovation in the financial sector while keeping alert to emerging risks. Using unique data for the UK, this paper provides initial evidence on the effectiveness of the world's first sandbox in improving fintechs' access to finance. Firms entering the sandbox see a significant increase of 15% in capital raised post-entry, relative to firms that did not enter; and their probability of raising capital increases by 50%. Our results furthermore suggest that the sandbox facilitates access to capital through two channels: reduced asymmetric information and reduced regulatory costs or uncertainty. Our results are confirmed when we exploit the staggered introduction of the sandbox and compare firms in earlier to those in later sandbox cohorts, and when we compare participating firms to a matched set of firms that never enters the sandbox. |
| Keywords: | fintech, regulatory sandbox, startups, venture capital. |
| JEL: | G32 G38 M13 O3 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:901&r=all |
| By: | Maria Koumenta (Queen Mary, University of London); Mario Pagliero (University of Turin, Collegio Carlo Alberto, CEPR); Davud Rostam-Afschar (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We use a unique survey of the EU labor force to investigate the relationship between occupational licensing and the gender wage gap. We find that the gender wage gap is canceled for licensed self-employed workers. However, this closure of the gender wage gap is not mirrored by significant changes in the gender gap in hours worked. Our results are robust using decomposition methods, quantile regressions, different datasets, and selection correction. |
| Keywords: | Licensing, Gender gap, Wages, Female Labour Supply, Quantile regression, Selection |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J44 J71 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2020-563&r=all |
| By: | Karolina Gralek; Silvia De Poli; Philipp Pfeiffer; Sara Riscado; Wouter van der Wielen |
| Abstract: | The high tax burden on labour in Slovenia is likely to have an adverse effect on labour market outcomes and, in turn, potential GDP. This effect is particularly relevant in an ageing country whose active population is expected to shrink. International institutions have been recommending to Slovenia to rebalance its tax mix away from labour to more growth-friendly tax bases. In October 2019, the parliament adopted changes to the tax code to reduce labour taxes by lowering tax rates, raising tax brackets and increasing the general allowance. Against this background, this economic brief considers the potential effects of the reform, as proposed by the Ministry of Finance in summer 2019, on growth, income equality and labour supply, and weighs it against alternative scenarios. The aim is to highlight potential trade-offs and synergies. We use the European Commission macroeconomic QUEST model to show that the tax shift from labour to corporate income would be more distortive to growth than a shift to the recurrent tax on immovable property, which is currently relatively low in Slovenia. Based on the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model, we find that a lower tax burden on labour could reduce income inequality and increase labour supply. The effects depend on the design of the reform. |
| Keywords: | Slovenia, tax shift, tax burden on labour, personal income tax, corporate income tax, recurrent tax on immovable property, Labour tax shift in Slovenia: Effects on growth, equality and labour supply, Gralek, De Poli, Pfeiffer, Riscado, van der Wielen. |
| JEL: | H21 H24 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:057&r=all |
| By: | Silvia Lui; Russell Black; Josefa Lavandero-Mason; Mohammad Shafat |
| Abstract: | We use a novel firm-level dataset to measure employment dynamics of UK businesses from 1999 to 2019, building on microdata from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and administrative data on employment from PAYE records at HMRC. We construct a new quarterly dataset by using consecutive snapshots of the IDBR to deduce signs of activity of firms. We present detailed descriptive analysis showing the quarterly averages for job creation and destruction by size, sector, transition status and age. In addition, we compute the marginal effects of age and size on growth using the Davis, Halitwanger and Schuh (DHS) approach. Our results show that business dynamism has slowed down since the 2008-2009 financial crisis on two levels: firstly, a decline in job destruction and secondly, a decline in job creation due to entry. Age has an important role in UK’s business dynamism – young firms are the most dynamic group of enterprises, independently of size. |
| Keywords: | business dynamism, employment, administrative data |
| JEL: | C81 D22 L25 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2020-14&r=all |
| By: | Calamunci, Francesca M. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I assess the causal effects of judicial administration on a sample of Italian criminal firms in the period 2004-2016, to shed light on the dynamic path of the firm's performance from pre-seizure to the post-entry judicial administration phase. By using exogenous enforcement law decisions imposed by authorities for each case, I estimate their impact, highlighting the economic consequences of having new legal governance aiming to establish legality and the perpetuation of activities. The results show that there are adverse effects on profitability and efficiency with an increase in the leverage level. The empirical evidence shows how organised crime firms are intrinsically managed by their dark criminal side; removing the criminal ties makes it challenging to maintain profitability and efficiency. Overall, the negative results are due to difficulty in establishing a new economic framework for (ex-criminal) firms in which they are able to operate efficiently and according to market rules. |
| Keywords: | Organised crime,Enforcement Law,Firm level data,Panel data analysis |
| JEL: | D22 K42 G38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:698&r=all |
| By: | Peter Huber; Martin Spielauer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines return and onward migration of immigrants to Austria, taking into account immigration type, country of origin, and employment outcomes. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative records of the Austrian Social Security Database of immigrants who entered Austria between 2009 and 2017. It is the first such study for Austria. We find that about 25 percent of immigrants leave Austria within less than a year of their arrival and 50 percent within 5.5 years. Return and onward migration is closely correlated with immigration type and origin. Refugees have a very low likelihood to leave Austria, whereas labour migrants have a substantially higher one. Women are more likely to stay than men and immigrants from Turkey have the lowest return probabilities among all origin groups. Emigration is also closely correlated with labour market success, the likelihood to stay depending on the speed of labour market integration. The consequence of these patterns is that the composition of the stock of immigrants living in Austria differs from the structure of new immigrants entering the country. We apply dynamic microsimulation to project the size and structure of the first-generation immigrant population in Austria as well as its labour market integration up to 2060. Our simulation results suggest that eventually, over 90 percent of the resident immigrant population attains at least some labour market experience and that the differences in return and onward migration across immigrant groups work to shift the structure of the immigrant population in the direction of third-country nationals. |
| Keywords: | Return migration, duration models, microsimulation |
| Date: | 2020–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:616&r=all |
| By: | Andreas Lichter (DICE, Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf, IZA and CReAM); Amelie Schiprowski (University of Bonn, IZA and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the potential duration of unemployment benefits affects early job search behavior and re-employment outcomes. We exploit an unexpected reform of the German unemployment insurance (UI) scheme in 2008, which increased the potential benefit duration from 12 to 15 months for benefit recipients of age 50 to 54. Based on detailed survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that one additional month of potential benefits reduces early job applications by around 10%. Using social security data, we further find that the extension of benefits increases the average nonemployment duration of individuals entering UI after the reform. Among individuals who got treated at later stages of their unemployment spell, the increased UI coverage does not appear to come at the cost of longer nonemployment. A cautious back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals substantial job funding returns to early search effort. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment Insurance, Job Search, Re-Employment Outcomes, Natural Experiment |
| JEL: | D83 I38 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:037&r=all |
| By: | AMOROSO Sara (European Commission - JRC); AUDRETSCH David |
| Abstract: | Scholars examining the effect of knowledge spillovers on R&D and innovation all agree on one thing—there is a strong relationship between the firm’s R&D effort and knowledge spillovers. The sign of this relationship depends, however, on many things, such as the type of spillovers (horizontal, vertical, or from other sources), the level of appropriability, the type of firm (e.g., age and sector), and the measurement of the spillover itself. A missing piece of evidence to this literature is the role of gender in the founding team of the firm. Our contribution is to fill this gap by explicitly analysing the role played by gender in the founding team. Given that the relationship between a firm’s R&D intensity and external knowledge spillovers is ultimately context-specific, we analyse the differences between male-owned and female-owned young entrepreneurial firms with respect to the influence that knowledge spillovers have on their R&D intensity. |
| Keywords: | Women entrepreneurs, absorptive capacity, knowledge intensive enterprise, spillovers, Europe |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:202005&r=all |
| By: | Bachli, Mirjam (University of St.Gallen); Tsankova, Teodora (Tilburg University and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the introduction of free movement of workers affects enrolment of natives in tertiary education. In a difference-in-differences framework, we exploit a policy change that led to a significant increase in the share of cross-border commuters in local employment in border regions of Switzerland. Our results show a rise in enrolment at Universities of Applied Sciences in affected relative to non-affected regions in the post-reform period but no change in enrolment at traditional universities. Furthermore, we find that enrolment increases in non-STEM fields that build skills less transferable across national borders. This allows for complementarities with foreign workers who are more likely to hold occupations requiring STEM training. Individuals with a labor market oriented education such as vocationally trained respond to the increase in labor market competition because they have employment opportunities and access to tertiary education through Universities of Applied Sciences. |
| Keywords: | cross-border commuting, demand for tertiary education, study field choice, labor market conditions JEL Classification: F22, I26, J24, J61, R23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:515&r=all |
| By: | Christelle Baunez (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone); Mickael Degoulet (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, Institut Neurosciences Timone); Stéphane Luchini (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Patrick A. Pintus (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.) |
| Abstract: | An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 in real-time. Using French data on cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down-from May 13, 2020, onwards-our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and [69 − 78] age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a second lock-down period with indeterminate duration. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; indicator of epidemic dynamics; acceleration Index; real-time Analysis; sub-national allocation of tests; France |
| JEL: | I18 H12 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2035&r=all |
| By: | Engzell, Per; Frey, Arun; Verhagen, Mark D. |
| Abstract: | Suspension of face-to-face instruction in schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to concerns about consequences for student learning. So far, data to study this question have been limited. Here we evaluate the effect of school closures on primary school performance using exceptionally rich data from the Netherlands (n≈350,000). The Netherlands represents a best-case scenario with a relatively short lockdown (8 weeks) and a high degree of technological preparedness. We use the fact that national exams took place before and after lockdown, and compare progress during this period to the same period in the three previous years using a difference-in-differences design. Our results reveal a learning loss of about 3 percentile points or 0.08 standard deviations. These results remain robust when balancing on the estimated propensity of treatment and using maximum entropy weights, or with fixed-effects specifications that compare students within the same school and family. Losses are up to 55% larger among students from less-educated homes. Investigating mechanisms, we find that most of the effect reflects the cumulative impact of knowledge learned rather than transitory influences on the day of testing. The average learning loss is equivalent to a fifth of a school year, nearly exactly the same period that schools remained closed. These results imply that students made little or no progress whilst learning from home, and suggest much larger losses in countries less prepared for remote learning. |
| Date: | 2020–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ve4z7&r=all |
| By: | Franziska Schütze |
| Abstract: | A range of studies has analysed how climate-related risks can impact financial markets, focusing on equity and corporate bond holdings. This article takes a closer look at transition risks and opportunities in residential mortgages. Mortgage loans are important from a financial perspective due to their large share in banks’ assets and their long credit lifetime, and from a climate perspective due to their large share in fossil fuel consumption. The analysis combines data on the energy-performance of buildings with financial data on mortgages for Germany and identifies two risk drivers – a carbon price and a performance standard. The scenario analysis shows that expected credit loss can be substantially higher for a “brown” portfolio compared to a “green” portfolio. Taking climate policy into account in risk management and strategy can reduce the transition risk and open up new lending opportunities. Financial regulation can promote such behaviour. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages, residential buildings, carbon risks, transition risks, valuation, climate policy scenarios, policy and regulation |
| JEL: | G21 Q48 Q56 Q58 R38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1910&r=all |
| By: | Julio G. Fournier Gabela; Luis Sarmiento |
| Abstract: | There is substantial evidence on the effectiveness of short-time work on reducing unemployment. However, no study looks at its role during natural disasters. This article exploits the exogenous nature of the 2013 European floods to assess if the impact depends on the quality of the short-time work mechanism across affected counties. We use regression discontinuity designs to show that unemployment does not increase in regions with robust programs while rising up to seventeen percent in areas with less robust mechanisms. Our results are relevant to the literature on how institutional quality influences recovery and suggests that short-time work programs are useful against unforeseeable productivity shocks besides financial crises. |
| Keywords: | Flooding, short-time work, regional unemployment, regression discontinuity in time, institutions |
| JEL: | J68 H84 Q54 C22 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1909&r=all |
| By: | Galesi, Alessandro; Mata, Nuria; Rey, David; Schmitz, Sebastian; Schuffels, Johannes (RS: GSBE Theme Data-Driven Decision-Making, Macro, International & Labour Economics) |
| Abstract: | Selling homes is not easy. Home sellers usually need to apply a price discount to swiftly close a deal, and more so when housing market activity is low. Using detailed data on home listings and transactions in Spain, we provide unique estimates of the price discount across regional submarkets and time. We document that the price discount is strongly countercylical, as it increases with declining market conditions, and viceversa during upturns. Despite substantial heterogeneity, regional price discounts are synchronized and a single common factor can account for about sixty percent of their variation, thus suggesting the existence of a national housing cycle. Finally, we document that the main factors linked to changes in the price discount are developments in income, population, and interest rates, which are jointly able to explain the bulk of variation in housing market liquidity across regions and time. Besides providing a formal test of the performance of the price spread in gauging housing market liquidity, this study conveys practical information to real estate market participants, policymakers, and financial institutions for which assessing conditions in Spanish housing markets is a central task. |
| JEL: | R20 R30 R32 |
| Date: | 2020–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2020029&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Chareyron (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL - Université Gustave Eiffel); Florence Goffette-Nagot (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lucie Letrouit (PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Urban renewal programs have been implemented in many countries to fight housing decay, poverty concentration, and associated social ills in the last decades. In this paper, we propose an evaluation of a large-scale urban renewal program launched in France in 2004. Using a novel estimator aimed at avoiding bias in the estimation of treatment effects heterogeneous across treatment groups or time periods, and complementing its results with a more precise double fixed effects difference-indifferences estimator, we find no significant effect of the program on housing values and transaction volume. However, we do find a significant impact on the social profile of housing buyers and sellers: an increased number of upward transitions of housing units, from blue-collar sellers to intermediate category buyers or from intermediate category sellers to executive buyers, and reduced housing transactions among executives. Altogether, our findings suggest a renewed interest of upper socio-professional categories to invest or keep their property in the renovated neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | Place-based policies,urban renewal,housing prices,housing spillovers,difference-in-differences |
| Date: | 2020–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02974235&r=all |
| By: | Marie Boltz (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne & BETA - Université de Strasbourg); Bart Cockx (Ghent University, IZA - Bonn, CESifo - Munich, IRES - Université catholique de Louvain, ROA - Maastricht University; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Departmento de Economia); Luz Magdalena Salas (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Departmento de Economia) |
| Abstract: | We conducted an experiment in which we hired workers under different types of contracts to evaluate how flexible working time affects on-the-job productivity in a routine job. Our approach breaks down the global impact on productivity into sorting and behavioral effects. We find that all forms of working-time flexibility reduce the length of workers' breaks. For part-time work, these positive effects are globally counterbalanced. Yet arrangements that allow workers to decide when to start and stop working increase global productivity by as much as 50 percent, 40 percent of which is induced by sorting |
| Keywords: | Flexible work arrangements; part-time work, productivity; labor market flexibility; work-life balance |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J23 J24 J33 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:20025&r=all |
| By: | Pierre-André Chiappori (Columbia University); Edoardo Ciscato (KU Leuven); Carla Guerriero (University of Naples Federico II) |
| Abstract: | Social scientists have long been interested in marital homogamy and its relationship with inequality. Yet, measuring homogamy is not straightforward, particularly when we are interested in studying sorting on multiple traits. In this paper, we compare different statistical methods that have been used in the demographic, sociological and economic literature. We show that Separate Extreme Value (SEV) models not only generate a matching function with several desirable theoretical properties, but they are also particularly suited for the study of multidimensional sorting. We use small-scale survey data to study sorting among parents of children attending schools in Naples. Our findings show that homogamy is pervasive: not only men and women sort on age, education, height and physical characteristics, but they also look for partners that share similar health-related behavioral traits and risk attitude. We also show that marital patterns are well explained by a low number of dimensions, the most important being human capital. Moreover, children of parents with a high human capital endowment perform better at school, although they report lower levels of subjective well-being and perceived quality of relationship with their parents. |
| Keywords: | homogamy, matching, intergenerational inequality |
| JEL: | J12 C78 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-080&r=all |
| By: | Marco Caliendo (University of Potsdam, IZA Bonn, DIW Berlin, IAB Nuremberg); Deborah A. Cobb-Clark (UUniversity of Sydney, IZA, ARC Centre of Excellence for Families and Children Over the Life Course); Cosima Obst (University of Potsdam); Arne Uhlendorff (CREST, CNRS, IP Paris, IAB, IZA, DIW) |
| Abstract: | We analyze workers’ risk preferences and training investments. Our conceptual framework differentiates between the investment risk and insurance mechanisms underpinning training decisions. Investment risk leads risk-averse workers to train less; they undertake more training if it insures them against future losses. We use the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to demonstrate that risk affinity is associated with more training, implying that, on average, investment risks dominate the insurance benefits of training. Crucially, this relationship is evident only for general training; there is no relationship between risk attitudes and specific training. Thus, as expected, risk preferences matter more when skills are transferable – and workers have a vested interest in training outcomes – than when they are not. Finally, we provide evidence that the insurance benefits of training are concentrated among workers with uncertain employment relationships or limited access to public insurance schemes. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital Investment, Work-related Training, Risk Preferences |
| JEL: | J24 C23 D81 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:23&r=all |
| By: | Flip Klijn; Mehdi Mdaghri Alaoui; Marc Vorsatz |
| Abstract: | We study academic integrity in a final exam of a compulsory course with almost 500 undergraduate students (mostly in Economics and Business Management and Administration) at a major Spanish university. Confinement and university closure due to Covid-19 took place by the end of the last lecture week. As a consequence, the usual classroom exam was turned into an unproctored on-line multiple-choice exam without backtracking. We exploit the different orders of exam problems and detailed data with timestamps to study students’ academic integrity. Taking the average over questions that were part of both earlier and later “rounds,” we find that the number of correct answers to questions in the later round was 7.7% higher than those to the same questions in the earlier round. Moreover, the average completion time of questions in the later round was 18.1% shorter than that of the same questions in the earlier round. We estimate that between 13.4% and 22.5% of the students cheated due to information flows from earlier to later rounds. Nonetheless, since exam grades are positively correlated with previous continuous assessment, they can be considered informative. Finally, a mere reminder of the university’s code of ethics, which was sent to a subgroup halfway through the exam, did not affect cheating levels. |
| Keywords: | education, Field Experiment, academic integrity, on-line exam, multiple-choice questions, code of ethics, continuous assessment, proctoring, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | A22 I21 I23 C93 D9 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1213&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Horvath; Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Marian Fink |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades. Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of the working population. |
| Keywords: | Integration, Migration, Education, Human Capital, Dynamic microsimulation |
| Date: | 2020–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:615&r=all |