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on Microeconomic European Issues |
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Issue of 2020‒10‒26
27 papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Nicola Borri; Francesco Drago; Chiara Santantonio; Francesco Sobbrio |
| Abstract: | In response to the Covid-19 outbreak, among other previous “non-pharmaceutical interven-tions”, on March 22, 2020 the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effect of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effect exploits the variation in the number of active workers across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-difference empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40-64 and older. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Assuming linearity, a 1 percentage point reduction in the share of active population caused a 1.32 percentage points reduction in mortality by Covid-19. We also find that the economic lockdown, as expected, led to a reduction in human mobility. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, economic lockdown, excess deaths, mobility |
| JEL: | H51 I10 I18 I30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8584&r=all |
| By: | Tamás Hajdu (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, Hungary); Gábor Hajdu (Institute for Sociology, Centre for Social Sciences, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, Hungary) |
| Abstract: | Using eight waves of the European Social Survey, we analysed how the local unemployment rate influences the well-being disadvantages of the unemployed. We estimate region fixed effects and slopes models that, unlike the standard region fixed effects approach, provide an unbiased estimate of the cross-level interaction term (the term between being unemployed and the unemployment rate). We find that the satisfaction of unemployed people (relative to employed people) is lower when the unemployment rate is higher. The results are similar for the depression scores, but the differences are smaller and insignificant regarding the happiness scores. Our results do not support the “social norm of unemployment” hypothesis that states that the negative impacts of unemployment are smaller if the unemployment rate is higher. In contrast, these results are in line with the argument that worse re-employment perspectives in high-unemployment regions may be particularly harmful to unemployed people. We note that these results do not contradict the claim that, in regions with a weaker social norm to work, unemployed people may be more satisfied. Instead, the results suggest that the unemployment rate is not a good proxy for the social norm to work. |
| Keywords: | unemployment; subjective well-being; unemployment rate; life satisfaction; happiness; European Social Survey |
| JEL: | I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2035&r=all |
| By: | Ismael Sanz; J .D. Tenaa |
| Abstract: | Exploring the impact of reducing instruction time has become a fundamental topic in education, particularly following the covid-19 outbreak. In this paper we consider an unexpected regulation change affecting the academic calendar of non-fee paying schools in the Madrid region (Spain) during the 2017-2018 school year. The availability of standard cognitive tests allows us to estimate the impact of this measure on academic performance by means of a difference in difference regression. Although this regulation change affected just two weeks of the school calendar, we found that it contributed to a significant deterioration of academic performance which was particularly evident in Spanish and English. We further explore nonlinear (quantile) effects across the distribution of scores in the standardized exam finding that the disruption of the new normative affected more to students in the upper quartile of the distribution. Overall, we found a reduction of the gap across students in non-fee schools together with an increase of the gap between non-fee and fee paying schools. We discuss the implications of these results for a better understanding of the impact of school closures due to covid-19. |
| Keywords: | Instruction time, difference in difference, quantile regression, academic performance |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202032&r=all |
| By: | Dirk Engelmann; Eckhard Janeba; Lydia Mechtenberg; Nils Wehrhöfer |
| Abstract: | Mobility of high-income individuals across borders puts pressure on governments to lower taxes. A central tenet of the corresponding textbook argument is that mobile individuals react to tax differentials through migration, and in turn immobile individuals vote for lower taxes. We investigate to which extent this argument is complete. In particular, political ideology may influence voting on taxes. We vary mobility and foreign taxes in a survey experiment within the German Internet Panel (GIP), with more than 3,000 individuals participating. We find that while the treatment effects qualitatively confirm model predictions how voters take mobility of high-income earners into account when choosing domestic taxes, ideology matters: left-leaning high-income individuals choose higher taxes and emigrate less frequently than right-leaning ones. These findings are in line with the comparative-static predictions of a simple model of inequality aversion when the aversion parameters vary with ideology. |
| Keywords: | taxation, mobility, ideology, survey experiments |
| JEL: | D72 F22 H21 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8595&r=all |
| By: | Guido de Blasio (Structural Economic Analysis Directorate, Bank of Italy); Alessio D'Ignazio (Structural Economic Analysis Directorate, Bank of Italy); Marco Letta |
| Abstract: | Using police archives, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict corruption crimes in Italian municipalities during the period 2012-2014. We correctly identify over 70% (slightly less than 80%) of the municipalities that will experience corruption episodes (an increase in corruption crimes). We show that algorithmic predictions could strengthen the ability of the 2012 Italy’s anti-corruption law to fight white-collar delinquencies. |
| Keywords: | crime prediction, white-collar crimes, machine learning, classification trees, policy targeting |
| JEL: | C52 D73 H70 K10 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:16/20&r=all |
| By: | Kuypers, Sarah; Figari, Francesco; Verbist, Gerlinde |
| Abstract: | Many researchers and policymakers have made strong arguments for broadening the taxes on wealth and its returns. Although the theoretical literature on (optimal) wealth taxation is growing, there exists a large void in empirical research. This paper addresses this void by analysing the redistributive and budgetary impact of wealth taxes in six European countries using the perspective of the joint distribution of income and wealth. We use data from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EUROMOD. We show that existing wealth taxes do not achieve any significant redistribution. Although they are in most cases strongly progressive, the low redistributive effect is mainly due to their small size. Moreover, there is a lack of neutrality in the tax system with regard to the source from which households draw their financial living standard: income or wealth. Hence, existing wealth taxes score badly on both vertical and horizontal equity grounds. |
| Date: | 2020–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em17-20&r=all |
| By: | Augusto Cerqua (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Emma Galli (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a sudden increase in the regional surcharge on the income tax rate in Lazio, one of the most populated regions of Italy, to compare taxpayers’ reported income in Lazio’s municipalities with those in the municipalities located in six neighboring regions. To this end, we have built a new yearly dataset (2012-2018) at municipal level containing the reported income of different categories of taxpayers and employ a spatial regression discontinuity design to estimate the response to an increase of the marginal tax rate in terms of reported taxable income by different types of taxpayers. We find a sizable and persistent decrease in reported income only for the self-employed and entrepreneurs, while the employees respond by slowly reducing their declared incomes. As expected, the retirees do not exhibit any response. |
| Keywords: | Income tax; taxpayers’ responses; spatial regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | C21 H26 J21 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:17/20&r=all |
| By: | Holmlund, Helena (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates how a natural experiment in education can be used to estimate causal effects. The Swedish compulsory school reform extended basic education gradually across cohorts and municipalities, allowing for a difference-in-differences analysis. The paper summarizes the literature using this reform and shows that it provided individuals from low socio-economic backgrounds with better opportunities in life. Not only did they attain higher levels of education – they also earned higher earnings, were less likely to participate in crime, and more likely to run for office. |
| Keywords: | education reform; natural experiment |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2020_015&r=all |
| By: | Massimo Bordignon (Università Cattolica di Milano, European Fiscal Board, CESifo); Tommaso Colussi (Università Cattolica di Milano, IZA - Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical framework that makes predictions on (a) the conditions under which a populist party decides to run and the policy position it takes and (b) voters’ response under different electoral systems. We test these predictions using data on Italian municipal elections over the 2009-2019 period and focusing on the electoral outcomes of the Five Star Movement. The empirical analysis shows: (i) populists are more likely to run under a Dual Ballot (DB) system and in municipalities where there is a large share of dissatisfied voters; (ii) when the populist runs, turnout increases under both Single and Dual Ballot systems; (iii) in a DB system, the populist candidate who ranked second in the first round has a higher probability of winning than the candidate of traditional party who ranked second by the same margin, as a result of increased turnout in the second round. We finally provide evidence that the low education and the young age of populist candidates are likely to deteriorate the efficiency of the local administration. |
| Keywords: | voting behavior, populism, Five Star Movement, municipal elections |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H56 D91 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:98&r=all |
| By: | Abate, Serafino; Bahia, Kalvin; Castells, Pau |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of competition on quality, innovation and price in Europe's mobile communications market during the 4G era (2011-18). Our results indicate that European mobile users in more concentrated markets benefitted the most from higher network quality, particularly with regard to download speeds. We find that dispersion of fixed costs and assets among a greater number of players can result in diseconomies of scale and a less efficient use of resources, which translates into lower network performance, to the detriment of consumers. We also find evidence of investment per operator being greater in markets with higher profit margins, which are also typically more concentrated markets. |
| JEL: | K20 L10 L40 L96 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itso20:224841&r=all |
| By: | Arjan Lejour (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Simon Rabaté (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Maarten van 't Riet (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | As long as there have been taxes, people have tried to avoid and evade them. Interest in these phenomena has been fueled by the effects on public revenues, as well as on the distribution of wealth and income. One prominent example of tax evasion is the hiding of wealth and income in tax havens. According to estimates by Zucman (2013), 8% of global financial wealth, or $5.9 trillion, is held in tax havens. During the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, the G20 countries vowed to tackle offshore tax evasion and proclaimed the end of the “era of banking secrecy”. In recent years, leaks containing confidential information from financial institutions as well as academic research investigating leaks and tax amnesties have confirmed the popular narrative that tax evasion is concentrated among the wealthiest in society (Alstadsæter, Johannesen and Zucman, 2018, 2019). This does not only affect public revenues, but also the measurement of wealth and income inequality. We use unique microdata to study tax evasion in the Netherlands. We have received data on over 27,000 participants to the Dutch tax amnesty between the years 2002 and 2018. In addition, we have data on households who appeared in recent information requests to 4 different Swiss banks. We link these data to administrative data on income, wealth, and demographics covering the entire Dutch population. |
| JEL: | H26 H87 E21 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:417.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Avram, Silvia |
| Abstract: | Using a combination of UKHLS and LFS data and a discrete time model, we test the hypothesis that unstable jobs with variable hours or pay enhance the job finding chances of the unemployed in the UK. We nd no evidence that the share of unstable jobs in the unemployed person's local labour market impacts on the probability to move into employment. This result holds both for men and women and for groups with low employability such as the low educated and the long-term unemployed. It is robust to alternative ways of de ning unstable jobs and to the inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity. Overall, ndings cast doubt on the importance of labour market exibility for employment creation. |
| Date: | 2020–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2020-11&r=all |
| By: | Ferrandis, Jesús; Feijóo, Claudio; Ramos, Sergio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the high-speed broadband situation in the EU and its prospects. Then it uses a deployment model to estimate the investment required in order to meet the European Gigabit Society (EGS) broadband targets set by the European Commission, aiming at ensuring the availability and take-up of very high capacity fixed and wireless networks, in both urban and rural areas, among households and main socio-economic drivers. The model uses data at the NUTS3 level, which is the most granular level that has data available on the status of broadband deployment, to arrive at a coherent and comparable framework. From the different perspectives on the investment to meet EGS targets, the paper concludes on the need to identify new public and private sources of investment and the case to attract them into the broadband business arena, since expected investment from incumbent and alternative operators would not be enough to fill the gap. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itso20:224854&r=all |
| By: | Fernando Alexandre (University of Minho and NIPE); Sara Cruz (University of Minho and NIPE); Miguel Portela (University of Minho, NIPE and IZA, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on managerial characteristics of micro and small-sized firms. Using linked employer-employee data on the Portuguese economy for the 2010-2018 period, we estimate the impact of management teams' human capital on the probability of firms becoming financially distressed and on their subsequent recovery. Our estimates show that the relevance of management teams' formal education on the probability of firms becoming financially distressed depends on firms' size and the type of education. We show that management teams' formal education and tenure reduces the probability of micro and small-sized firms becoming financially distressed and increases the probability of their subsequent recovery. The estimates also suggest that those impacts are stronger for micro and small-sized firms. Additionally, our results show that functional experience previously acquired in other firms, namely in foreign-owned and in exporting firms and in the area of finance, may reduce the probability of micro firms becoming financially distressed. On the other hand, previous functional experience in other firms seems to have a strong and highly significant impact on increasing the odds of recovery of financially distressed firms. We conclude that policies that induce an improvement in the managerial human capital of micro and small-sized firms have significant scope to improve their financial condition, enhancing the resilience of the economy against shocks. |
| Keywords: | Financial distress; human capital; firm performance |
| JEL: | G32 J24 L25 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:06/2020&r=all |
| By: | Yvonne Giesing; Felicitas Schikora |
| Abstract: | Emigrants are less likely to participate in elections in their home country. They are also self-selected in terms of education, gender, age, and political preferences, changing the structure of the origin population. High emigration rates can therefore have a systematic influence on election results. Using administrative migration and voting data, we show that counties in Poland that have experienced large emigration following the accession to the European Union in 2004 are characterised by larger vote shares for right-wing parties. We use instrumental variable estimations that exploit distance to the border and to airports to account for endogenous migration patterns. Results are robust to estimations using first differences. Results hold for elections of the national and EU parliament and for different areas within Poland. Surprisingly, we find no effects on incumbent parties. In addition, our results show increased voting for parties with pro-European positions. Analysing the mechanisms using survey data, we illustrate that emigrants (stayers) have less (more) trust in right-wing parties. The results have important policy implications for voting regulations. |
| Keywords: | migration, voting, political economy, EU enlargement, trust |
| JEL: | D72 F22 O15 P16 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8570&r=all |
| By: | Elena Cottini (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Claudio Lucifora (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Gilberto Turati; Daria Vigani |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the differences between natives and migrants in the appropriate use of emergency care. We focus on children under one year of age using a sample of more than 45,000 children living in the Metropolitan area of Milan. Consistently with the literature, our findings show that migrants’ children are characterized both by a higher probability to use emergency care and by a higher likelihood of an inappropriate use of this service. These findings are robust to the inclusion of additional controls, family doctor’s characteristics, as well as potential selection bias. We also explore potential mechanisms driving these results. We find that linguistic and cultural distance between natives and migrants explain the higher use of emergency services and the inappropriate use of these services. Conversely supply side factors do not seem to play any relevant role. These findings suggest that integration policies aimed at increasing language proficiency of immigrants would be helpful in improving the appropriate use of emergency care. |
| Keywords: | emergency care, children, migrants, inappropriate care. |
| JEL: | I10 I14 J15 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def093&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Frimmel; Martin Halla; Joerg Paetzold (Universität Salzburg); Julia Schmieder |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of parental health on adult children’s labor market outcomes. We focus on health shocks which increase care dependency abruptly. Our estimation strategy exploits the variation in the timing of shocks across treated families. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data show a significant negative impact on labor market activities of children. This effect is more pronounced for daughters and for children who live close to their parents. Further analyses suggest informal caregiving as the most likely mechanism. The effect is muted after a liberalization of the formal care market, which sharply increased the supply of foreign care workers. |
| Keywords: | Informal care, formal care, aging, health, labor supply, labor migration. |
| JEL: | J14 J22 I11 I18 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2020-18&r=all |
| By: | Etheridge, Ben; Wang, Yikai; Tang, Li |
| Abstract: | We examine self-reported productivity of home workers during lockdown using survey data from the UK. On average, workers report being as productive as at the beginning of the year, before the pandemic. However, this average masks substantial differences across sectors, by working from home intensities, and by worker characteristics. Workers in industries and occupations characterized as being suitable for home work according to objective measures report higher productivity on average. Workers who have increased their intensity of working from home substantially report productivity increases, while those who previously always worked from home report productivity declines. Notable groups suffering the worst average declines in productivity include women and those in low-paying jobs. Declines in productivity are strongly associated with declines in mental well-being. Using stated reasons for productivity declines, we provide evidence of a causal effect from productivity to well-being. |
| Date: | 2020–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2020-12&r=all |
| By: | Inge van den Bijgaart (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Sweden); Davide Cerruti (CER-ETH Center of Economic Research and CEPR, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of vehicle recalls on vehicle transactions in the second-hand market. Using a rich dataset of Dutch vehicle registrations, we exploit the quasi-experimental variation in recalls across nearly-identical cars. We find strong heterogeneities across market segment: vehicles with a lower (higher) list price or some (zero) defects experience an increase (decrease) in transactions after a recall. Based on our theoretical model, this suggests that recalls increase sorting in low-end markets, yet exacerbate adverse selection in high-end markets. Our results shed light on the effect of information arrival in markets subject to uncertainty and information asymmetries. |
| Keywords: | Vehicles, recalls, adverse selection, sorting, information |
| JEL: | D12 D83 L15 L62 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:20-343&r=all |
| By: | Aldén, Lina (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University); Bastani, Spencer (Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU)); Hammarstedt, Mats (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University); Miao, Chizheng (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | We study ethnic differences in long-term self-employment in Sweden combining population-wide register data and a unique survey targeting a large representative sample of the total population of long-term self-employed. Using the registers, we analyze the evolution of labor and capital income during the first ten years following self-employment entry. We find that, while ethnic differences in labor income become smaller over time, ethnic differences in capital income grow stronger during the course of self-employment. These findings are robust to controlling for factors such as organizational form and type of industry. We use the survey data to gain further insights into these differences, and show that immigrant self-employed experience more problems, earn less, but work harder than native self-employed. They also have a less personal relation to their customers, do not enjoy their work as much as natives, and appear to have different perspectives on self-employment in general. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; Immigration; Integration; Long-term; survey |
| JEL: | D31 J15 J24 L26 |
| Date: | 2020–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1361&r=all |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE Research Centre and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Koenig, Felix (Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University); Pessina, Lorenzo (Columbia University); Summers, Andy (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the contribution of migrants to the rise in UK top incomes. Using administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers we show migrants are over-represented at the top of the income distribution, with migrants twice as prevalent in the top 0.1% as anywhere in the bottom 97%. These high incomes are predominantly from labour, rather than capital, and migrants are concentrated in only a handful of industries, predominantly finance. Almost all (85%) of the growth in the UK top 1% income share over the past 20 years can be attributed to migration. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: H2, J3, J6. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:508&r=all |
| By: | Yulia A. Belous (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrew S. Tarasov (University of Trento) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to analyze the centrifugal tendencies in 17 Autonomous Communities of Spain by demonstrating that certain differences in the configurations of factors have lead to varying degrees of the loss of autonomy. The main conclusion is that for the configurations leading to less autonomy, there is a low level of economic development, a low volume of EU funding, and an absence of local languages as a factor of identity. The cases of Andalusia, Asturias, and Galicia are of particular importance in these configurations. For the configurations that lead to greater autonomy, two patterns are identified. The first group (Catalonia and the Basque Country) demonstrates a link between centrifugal tendencies and three conditions: the existence of regionalist parties in the parliaments of Autonomous Communities (AC), a high level of economic development and a high level of identification with a regional language. The second group of cases (Valencia and the Canary Islands) demonstrates the added importance of funding under the EU regional policy programs for the period from 2014 to 2020. The scientific novelty of the article lies in its analysis of the dynamics of centrifugal tendencies in Spain via crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). |
| Keywords: | Spain, Autonomous Communities, centrifugal tendencies, regionalist parties, regional policy of the European Union, Qualitative Comparative Analysis, centre-periphery relations |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:36/ir/2020&r=all |
| By: | Kaori Naritaa; J .D. Tenaa; Claudio Detottoc |
| Abstract: | Leadership succession entails changes in various managerial human capital. However, this issue has been rather overlooked in the literature. Whilst much of the previous studies focus on an overall impact of managerial turnover on organisational success, this paper contributes to the field by providing with some evidence that the changes in different characteristics of a manager, such as experience, skills, expertise, and relevance, asymmetrically affect post-succession performance. Using the data from the top-tier Italian football league for the seasons 2004/2005 - 2017/2018 inclusive, the effects of shifts in managerial human capital, in addition to Average Treatment Effect of replacing a head coach, are estimated by means of weighted regression with Inverse Propensity Score Weighting. In line with previous findings in the majority of literature, we find that head coach replacement does not significantly improve on-field performance, which implies that such a decision may be taken too often. However, significant improvement is found when a new manager is more experienced, has stronger association with the club, has been on sabbatical in the previous season, or is more defence oriented, relative to a dismissed head coach. Meanwhile, differences in neither playing career nor industry specific knowledge between outgoing and incoming managers affect effectiveness of replacement. The robustness of these results is tested for different performance measures and event windows. |
| Keywords: | OR in sports, Replacement, Human capital, Propensity score weighting, Football managers |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202031&r=all |
| By: | Kladivko, Kamil (Örebro University School of Business); Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate households’ directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The analysis is conducted using monthly forecasts from the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey that range from January 1996 until August 2019. Results indicate that households have statistically significant ability to forecast where the unem-ployment is headed, but they fail in predicting the direction of future inflation. |
| Keywords: | Survey data; Directional forecasts; Inflation; Unemployment |
| JEL: | E37 |
| Date: | 2020–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_011&r=all |
| By: | Jansson, Joakim (Linnaeus University); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | We use the random allocation of graders to different exam questions at Stockholm University to evaluate the existence of same-sex bias in exam correction. We find evidence of same-sex bias before anonymous exams were introduced. Notably, once anonymous grading was in place, the effect disappears. When separating the effects by grader´s sex, both groups of graders favor male students, although male graders favor male students to a larger extent than female graders. Again, after anonymous grading was introduced, the effect disappears. There is no evidence of compositional changes across the pre-and post-anonymous grading regimes. In sum, our finding is consistent with theories of stereotyping, e.g., the genius being male. |
| Keywords: | Grading bias; University; Discrimination; Education; Anonymous grading; Same-sex bias |
| JEL: | I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1362&r=all |
| By: | Howard Smith; Walter Beckert; Yuya Takahashi |
| Abstract: | In many markets the buyer pays an individually-negotiated price. TheoÂretically, relative to uniform-pricing, this has an ambiguous impact on market power and the effects of merger. To analyze competition in the UK brick indus-try—where individually-negotiated pricing is used, and the market is highly con-centrated—we develop a model of negotiated pricing and discrete-choice demand which permits alternative specifications for how the buyer's runner-up product affects price negotiations. We derive a likelihood for observed choices and prices and estimate the model using transaction-level data. We use the model to reÂject the hypothesis of price-taking buyers, calculate the distribution of markups, and measure the effect on markups of multi-product ownership and buyer locaÂtion. A counterfactual policy of uniform pricing increases average markups by about one-third, harms most buyers, and magnifies the price-increasing effect of merger. Average markups increase because uniform pricing is intrinsically less competitive and because it imposes buyer price-taking. |
| Keywords: | individualized pricing, bargaining, price discrimination, spatial dif¬ferentiation, merger analysis, construction supplies |
| Date: | 2020–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:921&r=all |
| By: | Ioannou, Nikos; Logothetis, Vangelis; Petre, Konstantin; Tselekounis, Markos; Chipouras, Aris; Katsianis, Dimitris; Varoutas, Dimitris |
| Abstract: | According to the 2013/466/ΕC Recommendation for setting copper and NGA wholesale access prices where cost orientation is imposed as a remedy, NRAs should adopt a BU LRIC+ costing methodology that estimates the current cost that a hypothetical efficient operator would incur to build a modern efficient NGA network. The starting point of modeling an efficient operator investing in NGA networks is the network modeling approach. In this paper, we compare the most widely adopted network modeling approaches in terms of wholesale FTTH prices. In particular, the modified scorched node approach is compared to the extreme cases of the scorched node and the scorched earth approaches. Τhe comparison between the aforementioned scenarios sheds light on the impact of each approach on the wholesale FTTH prices. The main finding of this paper is that the scorched earth approach leads to a maximum of 10% reduction in the short-term access prices compared to the most inefficient scorched node approach, whereas further extending its optimizations by optimizing the number of central offices, both the short-term and long-term wholesale price reductions are quite significant (more than 20%) regardless of service speeds. Obviously, these findings provide valuable information to both network operators and telecom regulators. |
| Keywords: | FTTH,(Modified) scorched node,scorched earth,wholesale NGA prices |
| JEL: | L43 L51 L96 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itso20:224857&r=all |