|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
|
Issue of 2020‒05‒04
thirty papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Jonas Klos; Tim Krieger; Sven Stöwhase |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a novel index for measuring intra-generational redistribution in pay-as-you-go pension schemes. Our index solely requires information on contributions and pension benefits of retirees, enabling us to measure intra-generational redistribution isolated from possible inter-generational redistribution. We use contribution records of approx. 100,000 German individuals, who progressed into retirement in 2007-2015, to measure the level of intra-generational redistribution in the German statutory pension scheme (GRV). A recent reform of childcare benefit provision, which became effective in 2014, confirms the predictions of our index. The reform introduced additional benefits for a subgroup of substantial size of German mothers, due to which the index value for women, but not for men jumps up. Our findings suggests that GRV fulfils the ideal of a Bismarckian pension system without intra-generational redistribution for men, while women benefit from intra-generational redistribution. |
| Keywords: | PAYG pension systems, intra-generational redistribution, Beveridge vs. Bismarck, index, microdata, Germany |
| JEL: | H55 D31 C55 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8200&r=all |
| By: | Stefan Ederer; Stefan Humer; Stefan Jestl; Emanuel List |
| Abstract: | The paper builds Distributional National Accounts (DINA) using household survey data. We present a transparent and reproducible methodology to construct DINA whenever administrative tax data are not available for research and apply it to various European countries. By doing so, we build synthetic microdata files which cover the entire distribution, include all income components individually aligned to national accounts, and preserve the detailed socioeconomic information available in the surveys. The methodology uses harmonised and publicly available data sources (SILC, HFCS) and provides highly comparable results. We discuss the methodological steps and their impact on the income distribution. In particular, we highlight the effects of imputations and the adjustment of the variables to national accounts totals. Furthermore, we compare different income concepts of both the DINA and EG-DNA approach of the OECD in a consistent way. Our results confirm that constructing DINA is crucial to get a better picture of the income distribution. Our methodology is well suited to build synthetic microdata files which can be used for policy evaluation like social impact analysis and microsimulation. |
| Keywords: | Distributional National Accounts; survey data; income inequality |
| Date: | 2020–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:599&r=all |
| By: | Dan Anderberg; Christina Olympiou |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between a key early intervention policy designed to support families with children up to the age of four and the rate at which children are taken into social care. The gradual build-up of over 3,600 Sure Start Children’s Centres (SSCC), operated by Local Authorities across England, created large spatial and cohort variation in the provision of a range of services that include childcare, early education, health and parenting support. Local Authorities are also responsible for the safeguarding of children and about 25 children per 10,000 are taken into social care annually, in the majority of cases to protect them from abuse and neglect. We find that SSCC provision is associated with a higher rate of entry into care for children aged 0-4, but a lower rate of entry for children aged 5-9. The findings are consistent with the policy improving longer-term outcomes while identifying cases in urgent need of care. |
| Keywords: | social care for children, early intervention, abuse and neglect |
| JEL: | I38 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8205&r=all |
| By: | Stefan Gössling (Linnaeus University); Sébastien Fernandez (University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland); Carlos Martin-Rios (University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland); Susana Reyes (Universidad Pablo de Olivade); Valérie Fointiat (LPS - Laboratoire de Psychologie Sociale - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Rami Isaac (Breda University of Apllied Sciences); Merete Lunde (Western Norway Research Institute [Sognda]) |
| Abstract: | Tipping is a social norm in many countries and has important functions as a source of income, with significant social welfare effects. Tipping can also represent a form of lost tax revenue, as service workers and restaurants may not declare all cash tips. These interrelationships remain generally insufficiently understood. This paper presents the results of a comparative survey of resident tipping patterns in restaurants in Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands. ANOVA and ANCOVA analyses confirm significant variation in tipping norms between countries, for instance with regard to the frequency of tipping and the proportion of tips in relation to bill size. The paper discusses these findings in the context of employment conditions and social welfare effects, comparing the European Union minimum wage model to gratuity-depending income approaches in the USA. Results have importance for the hospitality sector and policymakers concerned with social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Economic value,minimum wage,restaurants,service gratuity,social welfare,tipping |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02546589&r=all |
| By: | João Amador; Sónia Cabral; Birgitte Ringstad |
| Abstract: | The landscape of international traders is quite diverse. Firms can operate as exporters and importers, and also along the goods and services dimensions. Some firms strongly engage in several of these international trade flows, some firms only participate in one of them, while for other firms trade flows are just a small share of turnover. In this paper we suggest a taxonomy that classifies international traders in terms of the complexity of their participation in international trade. In addition, we study the linkages between different types of traders and build the network of their capital participations. The paper concludes that more complex international traders tend to be larger, younger, more productive and pay higher wages. However, their profitability is not clearly different from that of other traders. Moreover, evidence on capital linkages between types of traders suggests that minor traders do not compensate their low engagement in foreign markets through strong capital participations with other types of traders. Conversely, complex traders present strong capital linkages, thus adding two layers of complexity. Moreover, for more complex traders, the existence of many external capital participations is associated with labour productivity gains. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202004&r=all |
| By: | Figari, Francesco; Fiorio, Carlo V. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the extent to which the Italian welfare system provides monetary compensation for those who lost their earnings due to the lockdown imposed by the government in order to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In assessing first-order effects of the businesses temporarily shut down and the government’s policy measures on household income, counterfactual scenarios are simulated with EUROMOD, the EU-wide microsimulation model, integrated with information on the workers who the lockdown is more likely to affect. This paper provides timely evidence on the differing degrees of relative and absolute resilience of the household incomes of the individuals affected by the lockdown. These arise from the variations in the protection offered by the tax-benefit system, coupled with personal and household circumstances of the individuals at risk of income loss. |
| Date: | 2020–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em6-20&r=all |
| By: | Hooijen, Inge (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Bijlsma, Ineke (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, RS: SBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region, RS: FdR Institute ITEM); Poulissen, Davey (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Training and employment) |
| Abstract: | There is ample evidence from different research disciplines that location factors such as employment opportunities or the availability of amenities and facilities are a powerful predictor of settlement behaviour. Recent research suggests that citizens’ mean personality traits could be an additional predictor of where young people settle. We therefore explore 1) the extent to which recent graduates in the Netherlands are geographically clustered with respect to five different personality traits, 2) whether the geographical clustering of graduates is intensified as they grow older, 3) how regional environmental characteristics are related to personality traits, and 4) the extent to which personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Our results reveal a distinct geographical clustering of personality traits among the different regions in the Netherlands. We also show that this geographical clustering becomes more blurred as graduates age. The results furthermore show robust associations between personality traits and several environmental characteristics with respect to demographic, economic, health, political, sociocultural, crime, and religious outcomes. In addition, we show that personality traits play a role in graduates’ location choices. Economic factors seem to have a larger impact in determining location choices than personality traits. |
| JEL: | J61 R23 D91 |
| Date: | 2020–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2020001&r=all |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Marta De Philippis; Enrico Sette; Eliana Viviano |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long term consequences on workers' labour earnings of the credit crunch induced by the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We study the evolution of both employment and wages in a large sample of Italian workers followed for nine years after the start of the crisis. We rely on a unique matched bank-employer-employee administrative dataset to construct a firm-specific shock to credit supply, which identifies firms that, because of the collapse of the interbank market during the financial crisis, were unexpectedly affected by credit restrictions. We find that workers who were employed before the crisis in firms more exposed to the credit crunch experience persistent and sizable earnings losses, mainly due to a permanent drop in days worked. These effects are heterogeneous across workers, with high-type workers being more affected in the long run. Moreover, firms operating in areas with favourable labour market conditions react to the credit shock by hoarding high-type workers and displacing low-type ones. Under unfavourable labour market conditions instead, firms select to displace also high-type (and therefore more expensive) workers, even though wages do react to the slack. All in all, our results document persistent effects on the earnings distribution. |
| Keywords: | credit crunch, employment, wages, long run effects, administrative data, linked bank-employer-employee panel data |
| JEL: | E24 E44 G21 J21 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_169&r=all |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Tomaso Duso; Florian Szücs |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of EC merger decisions over the first 25 years of common European merger policy. Using a novel dataset at the level of the relevant antitrust markets and containing all merger cases scrutinized by the Commission over the 1990-2014 period, we evaluate how consistently arguments related to structural market parameters – dominance, concentration, barriers to entry, and foreclosure – were applied over time and across different dimensions such as the geographic market definition and the complexity of the merger. Simple, linear probability models as usually applied in the literature overestimate on average the effects of the structural indicators. Using non-parametric machine learning techniques, we find that dominance is positively correlated with competitive concerns, especially in concentrated markets and in complex mergers. Yet, its importance has decreased over time and significantly following the 2004 merger policy reform. The Commission’s competitive concerns are also correlated with concentration and the more so, the higher the entry barriers and the risks of foreclosure. These patterns are not changing over time. The role of the structural indicators in explaining competitive concerns does not change depending on the geographic market definition. |
| Keywords: | merger policy, EU Commission, dominance, concentration, entry barriers, foreclosure, causal forests |
| JEL: | K21 L40 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8213&r=all |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio; Gereben, Áron; Weiss, Christoph; Wruuck, Patricia |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of European firms, this paper studies whether and to what extent financing constraints affect employers' decisions to invest in employee training. It combines survey data on investment activities with administrative data on financial statements to develop an index of financing constraints. It estimates that a 10 percent increase in this index reduces investment in training as a share of fixed assets by 2.9 to 4.5 percent and investment in training per employee by 1.8 to 2.5 percent. The paper documents that lower investment in training reduces productivity, and show that firms facing tighter financing constraints cut back the investment in training and tangible assets less than investment in R&D and software and data. |
| Keywords: | training,financing constraints,Europe |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:202005&r=all |
| By: | Federico Caviggioli (Politecnico di Torino); Antonio De Marco (Politecnico di Torino); Giuseppe Scellato (Politecnico di Torino) |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a framework for investigating the relevance of dual use inventions, i.e., military applications of civilian patents. The data collected extends the companion report that focused on the opposite direction of dual use: from military inventions to civilian applications (Caviggioli et al., 2018). The analyses focus on 10 million patent families from selected patent offices in the years 2002-2015. The method proposed identified 85,034 defence inventions (0.9%) that were compared with the civilian inventions along several dimensions (time, geography, technological clusters). This study operationalises dual use from both a civilian to a military application (CM dual use) and in the opposite direction (MC dual use). The presence of CM dual inventions is 1.4% of the total civilian sample, with a slightly decreasing trend. They are four times the MCs in absolute numbers. The geographical analysis reveals heterogeneity: the US is the origin of 58.7% of the total dual use inventions identified in the sample and shows the highest incidence of cases (4.7% of all civilian inventions). The results also indicate significant heterogeneity in the share of domestic knowledge flows. The domestic spillover for dual in most of the countries examined is lower than for non-dual: a military application of a civilian innovation is a relatively more frequent occurrence outside the borders of the country with the exceptions of the USA, France, and the Russian Federation. The share of domestic CM dual use in the EU28 area is 36%, smaller than the corresponding non-dual value (42%). |
| Keywords: | Dual-use technologies, Key enabling technologies, defence |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc120293&r=all |
| By: | Andreas Lichter; Amelie Schiprowski |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the potential duration of unemployment benefits affects individuals’ job search behavior and re-employment outcomes. We exploit an unexpected reform of the German unemployment insurance scheme in 2008, which increased the potential benefit duration from 12 to 15 months for recipients of age 50 to 54. Based on detailed survey data and difference-in-differences techniques, we estimate that one additional month of benefits reduces the number of filed applications by around 10% on average over the first two months of unemployment. Treatment effects on the reservation wage are positive but statistically insignificant. In a complementary analysis, we use social security data to investigate how the reform affected re-employment outcomes. The difference-in-differences estimates yield an elasticity of 0.24 (0.1) additional months in unemployment (nonemployment) per additional month of potential benefits. A cautious back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals substantial returns to early search effort. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, job search, re-employment outcomes, natural experiment |
| JEL: | D83 I38 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8194&r=all |
| By: | Alessandro Bucciol (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Serena Trucchi (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between (internal and external) locus of control and saving choices using data from a longitudinal household survey representative of the Dutch population. Our findings show that individuals with more internal locus of control and less external locus of control save more, both at the extensive (probability to save) and intensive margins (amount of saving). We also investigate the mechanisms behind the relationship, assessing the role of propensity to save as a mediator. This way the effects on saving of internal and external locus can be split in direct and indirect components; the latter, which is found to be significant although less sizeable than the direct component, means that locus of control has an impact on the propensity to save which, in turn, affects saving. |
| Keywords: | Locus of Control, Saving decisions, Propensity to Save, Mediation analysis. |
| JEL: | D14 D91 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:06/2020&r=all |
| By: | Julien Salin; Nadine Levratto |
| Abstract: | Through a new eye on corporate finance theories of small firms and of business angel financing determinants, this paper reconsiders the impact of Business Angels on financial structure of backed firms using matching method and a unique individual dataset of French companies over the 2009-2015 period. It shows that the signal effect of Business angel investment, improving access to external finance from another investor is limited. This paper contributes to the corporate finance literature by investigating on the validity of principal corporate finance theories. It also brings insight to the understanding of value added of BA on backed firms. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Business angels, Financial Structure, Informal venture capital, Matching techniques |
| JEL: | G24 L25 L26 M13 O16 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-5&r=all |
| By: | Benassi, Chiara; Durazzi, Niccolo; Fortwengel, Johann |
| Abstract: | Why do skill formation systems put SMEs at greater disadvantage in some countries than others vis-à-vis large employers? By comparing vocational education and training (VET) institutions and their differential effect on firms of different sizes across three countries (UK, Italy, and Germany), we show that the design of VET has profound implications for shaping the ability of SMEs to use institutions as resources. In particular, quasi-market institutions in the UK amplify SMEs' disadvantage, while non-market coordinating institutions in Italy and Germany narrow the gap between SMEs and large employers. By unpacking the comparative disadvantage of SMEs, we offer important nuances to the argument that institutions help firms coordinate their business activities in different varieties of capitalism. |
| Keywords: | comparative political economy,firm size,small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs),varieties of capitalism,vocational education and training (VET),Berufsbildung,kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU),Spielarten des Kapitalismus,UnternehmensgröØe,Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:204&r=all |
| By: | Waldenström, Daniel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Bastani, Spencer (Department of Economics and Statistics) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between cognitive ability and bunching in the context of a large and salient kink point of the Swedish income tax schedule. Using population-wide register data from the Swedish military enlistment and administrative tax records, we find that high-ability individuals bunch more than low-ability individuals. This ability gradient is stronger for the self-employed, but is also present among wage earners. We also use high-school GPA and math grades to analyze gender differences, finding a stronger ability gradient among men. |
| Keywords: | Bunching; Ability; Skills; Complexity; Optimal Taxation |
| JEL: | H21 H24 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1333&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Mihailov (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers 3 scenarios regarding the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, staying for 1, 2 or 3 quarters, and 2 types of exceptionally rare and devastating disruptions in employment modeled as adverse labor supply shocks, a temporary one with negligible loss in the labor force due to deaths or a permanent one, with significant loss from deaths. The temporary labor supply shock simulations delimit a lower bound, designed to match about 1/4 of the labor force unable to work, and an upper bound, matching about 3/4 of the labor force made economically inactive, broadly consistent with estimates. The permanent labor supply shock is designed to match, in 3 scenarios again, up to 1% loss of the labor force due to mortality, twice milder than the Spanish flu 2% death rate. Estimated calibrations of the Galí-Smets-Wouters (2012) model with indivisible labor for 5 major and most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic economies are simulated: the US, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The simulations suggest that even in the most optimistic scenario of a brief (lasting for 1 quarter) and mild (with 1/4 of the labor force unable to work) lockdown, the loss of per-capita consumption (6-7% in annualized terms down from the long-run trend in the impact quarter) and per-capita output (3-4% down) will be quite damaging, but recoverable relatively quickly, in 1-2 years. In the most pessimistic simulated scenario of temporary loss the effects will be 10-15 times more devastating, and the loss of output and consumption will persist beyond 10-15 years. Permanent loss of up to 1.5 percentage points of per-capita consumption and output characterizes the simulated permanent labor supply shock. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, simulated macroeconomic effects, medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE models, indivisible labor, shocks to the disutility of labor supply, calibration according to Bayesian estimates |
| JEL: | C63 D58 E24 E27 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2020-07&r=all |
| By: | Andrea Bonoldi; Chiara Dalle Nogare; Martin Mosler; Niklas Potrafke |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between inheritance rules and voter turnout. Inheritance rules are measured by entailed farms in South Tyrol: land properties whose inheritance is regulated by a law similar to the right of primogeniture. Using data for municipalities between 1998 and 2010, we show that voter turnout is high in municipalities with many entailed farms relative to population. The effect is based on local elections. If the number of entailed farms per 100 inhabitants increases by one standard deviation, voting turnout in municipal and provincial elections increases by around 1.27 and 1.43 percentage points (around 25 and 35 percent of a standard deviation). Our results suggest that entailed farm owners themselves are more likely to vote, and that entailed farms owners encourage other citizens of their municipality to participate in local elections. |
| Keywords: | entailed farms, voter turnout, inheritance rules, identity, civic duty |
| JEL: | D72 H70 K11 Q15 Z19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8192&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Victor Alipour; Oliver Falck; Simone Schüller |
| Abstract: | Due to the COVID-19 crisis and the related “social distancing” measures, working from home (WfH) has suddenly become a crucial lever of economic activity. This paper combines survey and administrative data to compute measures for the feasibility of working from home among German employees. Breaking down the data by occupation, region, industry, and employee characteristics, we document considerable variation in the potential to WfH across all dimensions. We find that WfH is feasible for roughly 56 percent of the overall German workforce, while less than half of this potential was exploited in the pre-pandemic economy. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, working from home; Germany |
| JEL: | D24 J22 J24 O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8227&r=all |
| By: | Zwysen, Wouter; Demireva, Neli |
| Abstract: | Despite the extensive literature on the economic incorporation of migrants, little is known about the ways in which integration patterns differ across migrants depending on their motivation for migrating (e.g. economic, family, humanitarian). These initial motivations are associated with very different outcomes in the host society. Migrants generally do better in the labour market over time as they acquire host country human capital and labour market performance-relevant skills, but does the same pattern hold for each type of migrant? Policies that aim to increase overall labour market participation should take account of the increasingly diverse migrant population in Europe. We use detailed data from the 2008 and 2014 ad hoc modules of the EU Labour Force Survey to study labour market returns to host country-relevant skills, taking into account a range of individual and contextual factors. We show these patterns differ between recent migrants: higher host-country acquisitions are associated with improved labour market outcomes, but particularly for non-economic migrants. These findings are consistent over qualification levels and persist even within the more established migrant groups. |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2020-06&r=all |
| By: | Runst, Petrik; Thomä, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Previous research has established that certain personality traits represent predictors of start-up activity. We argue that similar cognitive processes that affect entrepreneurship also play a role in firm-level innovativeness. For example, open-ness to novelty can be regarded as a key component of entrepreneurial alertness in terms of both business creation and the generation of innovations within existing businesses. Based on a large survey of less R&D-intensive SMEs from Germany, we show that certain Big Five personality traits as well as certain personality prototypes of business owners are positively related to innovation activity. More importantly, this relationship depends on the mode of innovation, where companies operating under the DUI mode (Doing-Using-Interacting) seem to benefit in particular from certain owners' personality characteristics. In addition, we present evidence that complementarities between entrepreneurs' personality traits exist in terms of self-selection into the DUI mode. To explain our findings, we argue that the personali-ty characteristics of small business owners affect whether or not absorptive capacity can mediate between external knowledge and firm-level innovativeness. |
| Keywords: | Innovation,Modes of innovation,Absorptive capacity,Personality Traits,Big Five,SMEs |
| JEL: | L26 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:242019&r=all |
| By: | Normann Lorenz; Peter Ihle; Friedrich Breyer |
| Abstract: | One of the most important controversies in health economics concerns the question whether the imminent aging of the population in most OECD countries will place an additional burden on the tax payers who finance public health care systems. Proponents of the “red-herring hypothesis” argue that this is not the case because most of the correlation of age and health care expenditures (HCE) is due to the fact that the mortality rate rises with age and HCE rise steeply in the last years before death. The evidence regarding this hypothesis is, however, mixed. Our contribution to this debate is mainly methodological: We argue that the relationship of age, time to death (TTD) and HCE should be estimated non-parametrically. Using a large panel data set from the German Statutory Health Insurance, we first show that the parametric approach overestimates the expenditures of the high age classes and thus overstates the increase of future HCE due to aging. Secondly, we show that the non-parametric approach is particularly useful to answer the question whether age still has an impact on HCE once TTD is taken into account and find that it is clearly the case. This relationship is even more pronounced for long-term care expenditures (LTCE). We then show that the age-expenditure relationship is not stable over time: for many age classes, HCE in the last year of life grow considerably faster than HCE of survivors. We explore the impact of these findings on the simulation of future HCE and find that population aging will in fact contribute to rising HCE in the coming decades. We also find that the impact of different population projections provided by the statistical offices has a greater impact on these simulations than previously acknowledged. However, the total impact of demographics on future HCE and LTCE is dwarfed by the exogenous time trend, which is due to medical progress and increasing generosity of public LTC insurance. |
| Keywords: | health care expenditures, aging, red-herring hypothesis, non-parametric methods |
| JEL: | H51 J11 I19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8216&r=all |
| By: | Matz Dahlberg; Per-Anders Edin; Erik Gr\"onqvist; Johan Lyhagen; John \"Osth; Alexey Siretskiy; Marina Toger |
| Abstract: | Sweden has adopted far less restrictive social distancing policies than most countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses data on all mobile phone users, from one major Swedish mobile phone network, to examine the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak under the Swedish mild recommendations and restrictions regime on individual mobility and if changes in geographical mobility vary over different socio-economic strata. Having access to data for January-March in both 2019 and 2020 enables the estimation of causal effects of the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting a Difference-in-Differences research design. The paper reaches four main conclusions: (i) The daytime population in residential areas increased significantly (64 percent average increase); (ii) The daytime presence in industrial and commercial areas decreased significantly (33 percent average decrease); (iii) The distance individuals move from their homes during a day was substantially reduced (38 percent decrease in the maximum distance moved and 36 percent increase in share of individuals who move less than one kilometer from home); (iv) Similar reductions in mobility were found for residents in areas with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. These results show that mild government policies can compel people to adopt social distancing behavior. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2004.09087&r=all |
| By: | Luigi Bellomarini; Marco Benedetti; Andrea Gentili; Rosario Laurendi; Davide Magnanimi; Antonio Muci; Emanuel Sallinger |
| Abstract: | In the COVID-19 outbreak, governments have applied progressive restrictions to production activities, permitting only those that are considered strategic or that provide essential services. This is particularly apparent in countries that have been stricken hard by the virus, with Italy being a major example. Yet we know that companies are not just isolated entities: They organize themselves into intricate shareholding structures --- forming company networks --- distributing decision power and dividends in sophisticated schemes for various purposes. One tool from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) toolbox that is particularly effective to perform reasoning tasks on domains characterized by many entities highly interconnected with one another is Knowledge Graphs (KG). In this work, we present a visionary opinion and report on ongoing work about the application of Automated Reasoning and Knowledge Graph technology to address the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the network of Italian companies and support the application of legal instruments for the protection of strategic companies from takeovers. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2004.10119&r=all |
| By: | Donald A. R. George; Eddi Fontanari; Ermanno C. Tortia |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory predicts that the accumulation of capital by means of indivisible reserves would lead to underinvestment and undercapitalization due to the truncated temporal horizon of worker-members in cooperatives (the so-called “Furubotn-Pejovich effect†). An inefficiently low stock of capital would imply, other conditions being equal, lower labour productivity. We test the real effects of collective capital on productivity using a large panel of Italian worker and social cooperatives. Firm-level balance sheet data from Bureau van Dijk Aida database are used to estimate the effects of collective and individual reserves of capital on total factor productivity using an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function. Social security data on employment contracts in all Italian enterprises are used to measure firm-level full-time worker equivalents employment. Collective ownership and total factor productivity are positively and significantly related after controlling for factor productivity, individual capital ownership and other standard firm-level and sectoral controls. This result is robust to different specifications of the model and suggests a positive role of collective capital in strengthening financial sustainability, patrimonial and employment stability in the long run, favouring also firm specific investments. |
| Keywords: | Cooperatives, Total factor productivity, Self-finance, Under capitalization, Collective capital, Individual capital |
| JEL: | J54 P13 P14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpeu:20110&r=all |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ikpidi Badji (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the development of inequalities across ages and generations in France using a pseudo-panel developed from the successive waves of the French Household Expenditure Survey that took place between 1979 and 2011. The standard of living of individuals, evaluated using individualized disposable income or private consumption, including housing expenditure and imputed rent, is decomposed by sex and educational attainment. The estimation of Age-Period-Cohort models reveal that men with lower education attainments who were born after 1950 experienced a significant decline in disposable income with respect to those who were born between 1918 and 1950. Conversely, when the whole population of men is considered, no decline in disposable income is observed. The evolution is rather different for women: those with lower education attainments did not experienced any decline whereas the whole population of women benefitted from a strong increase in disposable income across generations. |
| Keywords: | JEL Codes: Keywords: Intergenerational Equity,Age-Period-Cohort models,Qualifications |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02549807&r=all |
| By: | Dominik Grübl; Mario Lackner; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of parents’ unemployment on unemployment among their children in their own adulthood. We use administrative data for Austrian children born between 1974 and 1984 and apply an instrumental variables (IV) identification strategy using parents’ job loss during a mass layoff as the instrument. We find evidence of unemployment inheritance in the next generation. An additional day of unemployment during childhood causally raises the average unemployment days of the adult child by 1 to 2%. The greatest effects are observed for unmarried parents, young children, children of low-education parents, and in families living in capital cities. We also explore various channels of intergenerational unemployment, such as education, income, and job matching by parents. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational transmission, mass layoff, unemployment duration, instrumental variable |
| JEL: | J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2020-05&r=all |
| By: | Fergus Cumming; Lisa J. Dettling |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Using administrative data on mortgages and births in the UK, our empirical strategy exploits variation in the timing of when families were eligible for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession. We estimate that each 1 percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates by 2 percent. In aggregate, this pass-through of accommodative monetary policy to mortgage rates was sufficiently large to outweigh the headwinds of the Great Recession and prevent a “baby bust” in the UK, in contrast to the US. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; Monetary policy; Birth rates; Fertility; Natality; Interest rates |
| JEL: | D12 E43 E52 J13 R31 |
| Date: | 2020–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-02&r=all |
| By: | Amelie Schiprowski |
| Abstract: | Caseworkers are the main human resources used to provide social services. This paper asks if, and how much, caseworkers matter for the outcomes of unemployed individuals. Using large-scale administrative data, I exploit exogenous variation in unplanned absences among Swiss UI caseworkers. I find that individuals who lose a meeting with their caseworker stay unemployed 5% longer. Results show large heterogeneity in the personal impact of caseworkers: the effect of a foregone meeting is zero for caseworkers in the lower half of the productivity distribution, while it amounts to more than twice the average effect for caseworkers in the upper half. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, caseworkers, job search |
| JEL: | J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8206&r=all |
| By: | Elert, Niklas (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Lundin, Erik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that men and women differ in their views regarding the severity of climate change, but do they also differ in their support for climate policy and in undertaking climate action? Previous evidence on this question is inconsistent, but unique survey data from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency enable us to answer it in the affirmative. Swedish women worry more about climate change and perceive it to be a bigger threat than men do. Furthermore, women report a greater support than men for policies to mitigate climate change through political interventions, and also undertake more voluntary actions to achieve this goal. More generally, the results suggest that women and men differ in their willingness to alter behavior and support policy to help mitigate other large scale crises, such as global pandemics. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Public opinion; Gender; Environmental beliefs |
| JEL: | H23 J16 O44 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1332&r=all |