nep-eur New Economics Papers
on Microeconomic European Issues
Issue of 2020‒03‒23
28 papers chosen by
Giuseppe Marotta
Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia

  1. Migrant Fertility in Germany and the Eastern Enlargement of the EU By Katharina Wolf; Michaela Kreyenfeld
  2. On the long-term efficiency of market splitting in Germany By Fraunholz, Christoph; Hladik, Dirk; Keles, Dogan; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf
  3. Did early-career complexity increase after labour market deregulation? Heterogeneity by gender and education across cohorts in Italy By Struffolino, Emanuela; Raitano, Michele
  4. Effects of cluster policies on regional innovation networks: Evidence from France By Konan Alain N'ghauran; Corinne Autant-Bernard
  5. Does working at a start-up pay off? By Fackler, Daniel; Hölscher, Lisa; Schnabel, Claus; Weyh, Antje
  6. Decomposing the large firm wage premium in Germany By Lochner, Benjamin; Seth, Stefan; Wolter, Stefanie
  7. An assessment of the national representativeness of new mothers and women of childbearing age in Understanding Society By Fisher, Paul
  8. New evidence on platform workers in Europe: Results from the second COLLEEM survey By Maria Cesira Urzi Brancati; Annarosa Pesole; Enrique Férnandéz-Macías
  9. Informing employees in small and medium sized firms about training: results of a randomized field experiment By van den Berg, Gerard J.; Dauth, Christine; Homrighausen, Pia; Stephan, Gesine
  10. TES analysis of AI Worldwide Ecosystem in 2009-2018 By Sofia Samoili; Riccardo Righi; Melisande Cardona; Montserrat Lopez-Cobo; Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet; Giuditta De-Prato
  11. Do income and marriage mediate the relationship between cognitive ability and fertility? Data from Swedish taxation and conscriptions registers for men born 1951-1967 By Martin Kolk; Kieron J. Barclay
  12. Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy By Emile Cammeraat; Ernesto Crivelli
  13. Assessing the collaboration and network additionality of innovation policies: a counterfactual approach to the French cluster policy By Konan Alain N'ghauran; Corinne Autant-Bernard
  14. What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France By Philippe Aghion; Céline Antonin; Simon Bunel; Xavier Jaravel
  15. Cyber incidents, security measures and financial returns: Empirical evidence from Dutch firms By Milena Dinkova; Ramy El-Dardiry; Bastiaan Overvest
  16. Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching By Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri
  17. A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts By Yueran Ma; Tiziano Ropele; David Sraer; David Thesmar
  18. Time-Varying Influence of Household Debt on Inequality in United Kingdom By Edmond Berisha; David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta; Chi Keung Marco Lau
  19. Mining for Mood Effect in the Field By Samahita, Margaret; H, Håkan J.
  20. Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter By Francesco Giavazzi; Felix Iglhaut; Giacomo Lemoli; Gaia Rubera
  21. Immigrants’ Wage Performance in a Routine Biased Technological Change Era: France 1994-2012 By Eva Moreno-Galbis; Jérémy Tanguy; Ahmed Tritah; Catherine Laffineur
  22. Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs By Thomas Douenne; Adrien Fabre
  23. Robots and the Origin of Their Labour-Saving Impact By Montobbio, Fabio; Staccioli, Jacopo; Virgillito, Maria Enrica; Vivarelli, Marco
  24. Inequality of Access to Opportunities and Socioeconomic Mobility : Evidence from the Life in Transition Survey By Cojocaru,Alexandru
  25. Identifying Price Reviews by Firms: An Econometric Approach By Mark Harris; Hervé Le Bihan; Patrick Sevestre
  26. The Substitutability between Brick-and-Mortar Stores and e-Commerce - The Case of Books By Georg Goetz; Daniel Herold; Phil-Adrian Klotz; Jan Thomas Schaefer
  27. Implementation and further development of the European Tertiary Education Register (ETER) By LEPORI Benedetto; BONACCORSI Andrea; DARAIO Cinzia; DARAIO Alessandro; BRUNI Renato; CATALANO Giuseppe; MATTEUCCI Giorgio; SCANNAPIECO Monica; GUNNES Hebe; HOVDHAUGEN Elisabeth; PLODER Michael; TODOROVIC Natalja; WAGNER-SCHUSTER Daniel
  28. Social Mobility Perceptions and Inequality Acceptance By Dietmar Fehr; Daniel Müller; Marcel Preuss

  1. By: Katharina Wolf; Michaela Kreyenfeld
    Abstract: This paper uses data from the Migrant Samples of the German Socio-Economic Panel to study the fertility behaviour of women who migrated to Germany between 1990 and 2015. Special emphasis is placed on the large groups of migrants who have moved to Germany from Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries since the 1990s. We find that CEE migrants had higher first birth, but much lower second birth rates than migrants from other European countries. Different from the pattern of African and Middle Eastern migrants, we do not find a spike in first birth rates after migration. We also examined differences within the group of migrants from CEE-countries. In particular, we examined whether Ethnic German migrants differed from migrants who moved as third country national or those who moved after their country became EU-members with the right to free movement of labor. We find that CEE-migrants who moved when their country was a member state of the European Union display strongly reduced first birth rates.
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Fraunholz, Christoph; Hladik, Dirk; Keles, Dogan; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf
    Abstract: In Europe, the ongoing renewable expansion and delays in the planned grid extension have intensified the discussion about an adequate electricity market design. Against this background, we jointly apply an agent-based electricity market model and an optimal power flow model to investigate the long-term impacts of splitting the German market area into two price zone. Our approach allows capturing long-term investment and short-term market behavior under imperfect information. We find strong impacts of a German market splitting on electricity prices, expansion planning of generators and required congestion management. While the congestion volumes decrease significantly under a market split in the short term, the optimal zonal configuration for 2020 becomes outdated over time due to dynamic effects like grid extension, renewable expansion and new power plant investments. Policymakers and regulators should therefore regularly re-assess bidding zone configurations. Yet, this stands in contrast to the major objective of price zones to create stable locational investment incentives.
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Struffolino, Emanuela; Raitano, Michele
    Abstract: This article considers the complexity of ea rly employment life-courses focusing on the heterogeneity by gender and education. We construct 7-year-long early employment trajectories by using a unique longitudinal da taset that combines administrative records on employment episodes and survey data from the Italian module of the EU-SILC. This enables the application of advanced method s in sequence analysis to calculate the complexity of employment trajectories following labour market entry. Complexity reflects the instability of early-careers by consid ering the number of transitions between employment states and the length of each epis ode. We compare several cohorts of Italian workers who entered the labo ur market between 1974 and 2001 in institutional contexts characterized by different levels of deregu lation. The results demonstrate that early-career complexity increased across cohorts, but mostly for medium and lower-educated individuals. This dynamic is particularly pr onounced for women, and complexity is the highest for recent cohorts, especially among those with less human capital.
    Keywords: labour market,youth,gender,education,flexibility,sequence analysis
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Konan Alain N'ghauran (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Corinne Autant-Bernard (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Despite the growing body of literature evaluating cluster policies, it still remains difficult to establish conclusively their structural effects on regional innovation networks. Focusing on the French cluster policy during the period 2005-2010, this study aims at evaluating how cluster policies influence the structure of local innovation networks following network topologies that may be beneficial for regional innovation. Based on a panel data of four periods and 94 NUTS3 French regions, we estimate spatial Durbin models, allowing us to identify direct, indirect and total effects of cluster policies. The results suggest that cluster policies can result in both positive and negative total effects on the structure of local innovation networks depending on regions' technological specialisation. Beyond the heterogeneous effects, the results also highlight that cluster policies may lead to a regional competition for the strengthening of innovation networks. This finding echoed previous research pointing out the possible 'beggar-thy-neighbour' effects of cluster policies.
    Keywords: Cluster,Regional innovation,Innovation network,Policy evaluation
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Fackler, Daniel; Hölscher, Lisa; Schnabel, Claus; Weyh, Antje
    Abstract: Using representative linked employer-employee data for Germany, this paper analyzes short- and long-run differences in labor market performance of workers joining start-ups instead of incumbent firms. Applying entropy balancing and following individuals over ten years, we find huge and long-lasting drawbacks from entering a start-up in terms of wages, yearly income, and (un)employment. These disadvantages hold for all groups of workers and types of start-ups analyzed. Although our analysis of different subsequent career paths highlights important heterogeneities, it does not reveal any strategy through which workers joining start-ups can catch up with the income of similar workers entering incumbent firms.
    Keywords: startups,young firms,wages,linked employer-employee data
    JEL: J31 J63 L26 M51
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Lochner, Benjamin; Seth, Stefan; Wolter, Stefanie
    Abstract: We use an extensive, matched employer-employee dataset to analyze the employersize wage relation and its contribution to wage inequality in Germany. Applying models with additive fixed effects for workers and establishments, we document that the large firm wage premium, which has risen over 25 years, has only recently started to decrease. Our estimates show that the recent decline is due to a decrease in the variation of establishment-specific wage premiums both across establishment size groups and within. This decline together with decreasing worker segregation at small firms account for an overall reversal in the trend of increasing wage dispersion.
    Keywords: firm size,wage inequality,wage premiums,fixed-effect wage models,firm andworker heterogeneity
    JEL: J00 J21 J31 J40
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Fisher, Paul
    Abstract: The aims of this report are threefold. The first is to document the representativeness of Understanding Society subgroups relevant for pregnancy and child development; and show how the representativenesshas evolved over time. It does this by comparing estimates from Understanding Society to those from a high-quality cross-sectional survey –the Family Resources Survey (FRS). Our comparisons are cross-sectional in nature. This is relevant as many uses of Understanding Society are cross-sectional. Moreover, longitudinal measures such as transitions, are calculated as the difference between two cross-sections, and so it is important to get the latter right. Second, we document the available Understanding Society sample sizes of relevant subgroups. These are women of childbearing age and women with newborns, which we further subset according to measures of disadvantage. Third, we demonstrate the unique value of Understanding Society for research in this area. We report on the persistent poverty rates of our subgroups of women, something which has not been previously done for the UK, and is not possible without longitudinal data.
    Date: 2020–03–11
  8. By: Maria Cesira Urzi Brancati (European Commission - JRC); Annarosa Pesole (European Commission - JRC); Enrique Férnandéz-Macías (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Digital labour platforms are a new form of coordinating the provision of labour services enabled by the latest technological revolution. Many authors claim that digital labour platforms have the potential to disrupt the world of work, both positively by boosting participation in the labour market through better matching procedures, and negatively by circumventing regulation and lowering the quality of employment. To assess the impact of digital labour platforms on employment and on working conditions, we need precise estimates of the number of people doing platform work; in addition we need information on what type of services they provide, how frequently these services are provided, how much money is earned as a result of this provision and so on. At the same time, when we talk about the impact of digital labour platforms on working conditions, it is imperative to understand whether platform work is just a side gig as it is often claimed, or whether it represents a major source of income and for whom. Thus, we need to ascertain the regularity, time allocated and income generated from platform work, as well as the employment status of platform workers, since this will provide information as to whether they have other forms of social protection from other jobs. In 2017, the JRC conducted the COLLEEM pilot survey, an initial attempt to provide quantitative evidence on platform work. This report builds on previous findings and contributes by describing the results of the second wave of COLLEEM (2018).
    Keywords: digital labour platforms; platform work; gig work; crowdwork; collaborative economy; sharing economy; atypical work.
    Date: 2020–02
  9. By: van den Berg, Gerard J. (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Dauth, Christine (IAB (The Institute for Employment Research); Homrighausen, Pia (IAB (The Institute for Employment Research); Stephan, Gesine (IAB (The Institute for Employment Research)
    Abstract: We mailed brochures to 10,000 randomly chosen employed German workers eligible for a subsizided occupational training program called WeGebAU,informing them about the importance of skill-upgrading occupational training in general and about WeGebAU in particular. Using survey and register data,we estimate effects of the information treatment brochure on awareness of the program, on take-up of WeGebAU and other training,and on subsequent employment. The bRochure more than doubles awareness of the program. There are no effects on WeGebAU take-up but participation in other(unsubsidized) training increasesamong employees aged below 45. Short-term labor market outcomes are not affected.
    Keywords: employment; wages; skills; randomized controlled trial; information treatment
    JEL: J24 J65
    Date: 2020–02–27
  10. By: Sofia Samoili (European Commission - JRC); Riccardo Righi (European Commission - JRC); Melisande Cardona (European Commission - JRC); Montserrat Lopez-Cobo (European Commission - JRC); Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet (European Commission - JRC); Giuditta De-Prato (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report analyses and compares countries and regions in the evolving international industrial and research landscape of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The evidence presented is based on a unique database covering the years 2009-2018. The database has been specifically built from a multitude of sources to provide scientific evidence and monitor the AI landscape worldwide. Companies, universities, research institutes and governmental authorities with an active role in AI are identified and analysed in an aggregated fashion. The report presents a wide variety of indicators, allowing us to expand our knowledge on issues such as: the size of the AI ecosystem globally and at country level; which are the main global competitors of the EU; what is the level of industrial involvement per country; what are the firms’ demographics, profiling of economic agents according to their strengths in innovation and take-up of AI, including their patenting performance; and the degree of internal and external collaborations between EU and non-EU firms and research institutions. The analysis of the AI activities developed by agents in the studied territories provides interesting insights on their areas of specialisation, highlighting the strengths of the EU and its Member States in the global landscape. Each section offers a focus on EU Member States.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence, techno-economic analysis, digital transformation, AI landscape, AI thematic area, network of collaborations, AI industry
    Date: 2020–02
  11. By: Martin Kolk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kieron J. Barclay (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Recent evidence suggests a positive association between fertility and cognitive ability among Swedish men. In this study we use data on 18 birth cohorts of Swedish men to examine whether and how the relationship between cognitive ability and patterns of childbearing are mediated by income, education and marriage histories. We examine whether the expected positive associations between cognitive ability and life course income, can explain this positive association. We also explore the role of marriage for understanding the positive gradient between cognitive ability and fertility. To address these question we use Swedish population administrative data that holds information on fertility histories, detailed taxation records, and data from conscription registers. We also identify siblings in order to adjust for confounding by shared family background factors. Our results show that while cognitive ability, education, income, marriage, and fertility, are all positively associated with each other, income only explains a part of the observed positive gradient between fertility and cognitive ability. We find that much of the association between cognitive ability and fertility can be explained by marriage, but that a positive association exists among both ever-married and never-married men. Both low income and low cognitive ability are strong predictors of high childlessness and low fertility in our population. The results from the full population persist in the sub-sample of brothers.
    Keywords: Sweden, cohort fertility, completed fertility, income, intelligence, marriage
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Emile Cammeraat; Ernesto Crivelli
    Abstract: This paper evaluates elements of a comprehensive reform of the Italian tax system. Reform options are guided by the principles of reducing complexity, broadening the tax base, and lowering marginal tax rates, especially the tax burden on labor income. The revenue and distributional implications of personal income and property tax reforms are assessed with EUROMOD, while a microsimulation model is developed to evaluate VAT reform options. Simulations suggest that a substantial reduction in the tax burden on labor income can be obtained with a revenue-neutral base-broadening reform that streamlines tax expenditures and updates the property valuation system. In addition, a comprehensive reform would benefit low- and middle-income households the most, by lowering significantly their overall current tax liability, which results in increased progressivity of the tax system.
    Date: 2020–02–21
  13. By: Konan Alain N'ghauran (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Corinne Autant-Bernard (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Whereas most collaboration-based innovation policies aim at fostering efficient ecosystems of innovation, evaluations of the behavioural impact of such policies remain few and far between. Relying on external-to-the-policy network data to build a counterfactual approach, this paper addresses three main evaluation issues: do cluster policies make firms more collaborative? Do they encourage local ties? Do they induce network additionality? Focusing on French data, our results suggest that cluster policies may lack effectiveness in tackling network failures.
    Keywords: Policy evaluation,Behavioural additionality,Organisational change,Counterfactual approach,Social network analysis,Cluster policy
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Philippe Aghion (Collège de France and London School of Economics); Céline Antonin (Sciences Po-OFCE); Simon Bunel (INSEE and Paris School of Economics); Xavier Jaravel (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We use comprehensive micro data in the French manufacturing sector between 1994 and 2015 to document the effects of automation technologies on employment, wages, prices and profits. Causal effects are estimated with event studies and a shift-share IV design leveraging pre-determined supply linkages and productivity shocks across foreign suppliers of industrial equipment. At all levels of analysis — plant, firm, and industry — the estimated impact of automation on employment is positive, even for unskilled industrial workers. We also find that automation leads to higher profits, lower consumer prices, and higher sales. The estimated elasticity of employment to automation is 0.28, compared with elasticities of 0.78 for profits, -0.05 for prices, and 0.37 for sales. Consistent with the importance of business-stealing across countries, the industry-level employment response to automation is positive and significant only in industries that face international competition. These estimates can be accounted for in a simple monopolistic competition model: firms that automate more increase their profits but pass through some of the productivity gains to consumers, inducing higher scale and higher employment. The results indicate that automation can increase labor demand and can generate productivity gains that are broadly shared across workers, consumers and firm owners. In a globalized world, attempts to curb domestic automation in order to protect domestic employment may be self-defeating due to foreign competition.
    Keywords: Automation, employment, plant-level, firm-level, labor market, product market, manufacturing, France.
    JEL: J23 J24 L11 O3
    Date: 2020–01
  15. By: Milena Dinkova (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Ramy El-Dardiry (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Bastiaan Overvest (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This CPB discussion paper investigates the cybersecurity of Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises, the security measures they take and the relationship thereof with financial results. Often, small and medium-sized enterprises are identified as a particularly vulnerable group for cyber incidents. However, there is not much academic research focusing on the cyber security costs for those firms. In this paper, we employ representative survey data on ICT use and administrative tax record data on Dutch firms to understand how cybersecurity investments relate to the probability of cyber incidents and firm profitability. This dataset allows us to control for firm size, industry, and IT organization.
    JEL: D22 D83 G14 M15
    Date: 2020–03
  16. By: Gianluca Orefice (University of Paris-Dauphine, CEPII and CESifo); Giovanni Peri (University of California, Davis and NBER)
    Abstract: The process of matching between firms and workers is an important mechanism in determining the distribution of wages. In a labor market characterised by large dispersion of workers' productivity and worker-firm complementarity, high quality firms have strong incentives to screen for the quality of workers. This process will increase the positive quality association of firm-worker matches known as positive assortative matching (PAM). Immigration in a local labor market, by increasing the variance of workers abilities, may drive stronger PAM between firms and workers. Using French matched employer-employee (DADS) data over the period 1995-2005 we document that positive supply-driven changes of immigrant workers in a district increased the strength of PAM. We then show that this association is consistent with causality, is quantitatively significant, and is associated with higher average productivity and firm profits, but also with higher wage dispersion. We also show that the increased degree of positive assortative matching is mainly reached by high-productive firms "losing" lower quality workers and "attracting" higher quality workers.
    Keywords: Matching, Workers, Firms, Immigration, Productivity.
    JEL: F16 J20 J61
    Date: 2020–03
  17. By: Yueran Ma; Tiziano Ropele; David Sraer; David Thesmar
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the economic costs of distortions in managerial forecasts. We match a unique managerial survey run by the Bank of Italy with administrative data on firm balance sheets and income statements. The resulting dataset allows us to observe a long panel of managerial forecast errors for a sample of firms representative of the Italian economy. We show that managerial forecast errors are positively and significantly autocorrelated. This persistence in forecast error is consistent with managerial underreaction to new information. To quantify the economic significance of this forecasting bias, we estimate a dynamic equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and distorted expectations. The estimated model matches not only the persistence of forecast errors, but the empirical link between investment and managerial forecasts. Relative to a counterfactual with rational expectations, we find that managers exhibit large forecasting biases, which lead to significant distortions in firm-level investment. These distortions, however, imply limited loss in firm value. In general equilibrium, the estimated model leads to negligible aggregate efficiency losses from distorted forecasts.
    JEL: E03 E22 G02 G3 G31
    Date: 2020–03
  18. By: Edmond Berisha (Feliciano School of Business, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA); David Gabauer (Institute of Applied Statistics, Johannes Kepler University, Altenbergerstraße 69, 4040 Linz, Austria; Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University, Praterstraße 23, 1020 Vienna, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Chi Keung Marco Lau (Huddersfield Business School, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, HD1 3DH, UK)
    Abstract: The United Kingdom (UK) in terms of income inequality is ranked among the highest in Europe. Likewise, within the last four decades, UK is characterized with drastic increases in household debt. In this paper, we analyze time-varying predictability of growth in household debt for growth in income (and consumption) inequality based on a high-frequency (quarterly) data set over 1975:Q2 to 2016:Q1. Results indicate that the growth in household debt has a strong predictive power, both for within and out-of-samples, on growth rate of income (and consumption) inequality in the UK. Interestingly, the strength of the predictive power is found to have increased after 2008. Based on time-varying impulse response functions, we also find that higher growth rate in household debt corresponds with subsequent increases in income inequality.
    Keywords: Household Debt; Inequality; Time-Varying Predictions
    JEL: C32 C53 D63 E30 E40 R31
    Date: 2020–02
  19. By: Samahita, Margaret (School of Economics, University College Dublin, Ireland); H, Håkan J. (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: We conduct what we believe to be the most methodologically rigorous study of mood effect in the field so far to measure its economic impact and address shortcomings in the existing literature. Using a large dataset containing over 46 million car inspections in Sweden and England in 2016 and 2017, we study whether inspectors are more lenient on days when their mood is predicted to be good, and if car owners exploit the mood effect by selecting these days to inspect low quality cars. Different sources of good mood are studied: Fridays, sunny days, and days following unexpected wins by the local soccer team, with varying degrees of the car owner’s ability to plan for inspection, and hence the likelihood of selection bias. We find limited evidence to support the existence of mood effects in this domain, despite survey results showing belief to the contrary. There is some indication of selection effect on the part of car owners. Our findings cast doubt on previous mood effects found in the field.
    Keywords: mood effect; selection bias; car inspection
    JEL: D12 D22 D84 D91
    Date: 2020–03–07
  20. By: Francesco Giavazzi; Felix Iglhaut; Giacomo Lemoli; Gaia Rubera
    Abstract: We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the aforementioned exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main far-right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for some of the other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats on the success of nationalist parties.
    JEL: C45 D72 H56
    Date: 2020–03
  21. By: Eva Moreno-Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jérémy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Ahmed Tritah (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, Institut Convergences Migrations - Collège de France, CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Catherine Laffineur (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Over the period 1994–2012, immigrants' wage growth in France outperformed that of natives. We investigate to what extent changes in task-specific returns to skills contributed to this wage dynamics differential through two channels: changes in the valuation of skills (price effect) and occupational sorting (quantity effect). We find that the wage growth premium of immigrants is mainly explained by the progressive reallocation of immigrants toward tasks whose returns increase over time. Immigrants seem to have taken advantage of labor demand restructuring driven by globalization and technological changes.
    Keywords: Wage dynamics,tasks,immigrants,skills
    Date: 2019–10
  22. By: Thomas Douenne (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Adrien Fabre (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper helps to understand how beliefs form and determine attitudes towards policies. Using a new survey and official households' survey data, we investigate the case of carbon taxation in France in the context of the Yellow Vests movement that started against it. We find that French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. However, they also overestimate the negative impact of the scheme on their purchasing power, wrongly think it is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. Using information about the scheme as instruments to robustly identify causal effects, our econometric analysis shows that if we could rectify these three biased beliefs, it would suffice to generate majority approval. Yet, only a small minority can be convinced by new information and revisions are biased towards pessimism. Finally, if overly pessimistic beliefs cause tax rejection, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as "tax aversion".
    Keywords: Climate Policy,Carbon tax,Bias,Beliefs,Preferences,Tax aversion
    Date: 2020–02
  23. By: Montobbio, Fabio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Staccioli, Jacopo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Virgillito, Maria Enrica (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of explicit labour-saving heuristics within robotic patents. It analyses innovative actors engaged in robotic technology and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies the technological fields particularly exposed to labour-saving innovations. It exploits advanced natural language processing and probabilistic topic modelling techniques on the universe of patent applications at the USPTO between 2009 and 2018, matched with ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) firm-level dataset. The results show that labour-saving patent holders comprise not only robots producers, but also adopters. Consequently, labour-saving robotic patents appear along the entire supply chain. The paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).
    Keywords: robotic patents, labour-saving technology, search heuristics, probabilistic topic models
    JEL: O33 J24 C38
    Date: 2020–02
  24. By: Cojocaru,Alexandru
    Abstract: Expectations of future socioeconomic mobility are an important determinant of cur- rent policy preferences. But how may these expectations be formed? Using Life in Transition survey data for a large set of transition economies and several Western European countries, this paper examines the link between beliefs about the importance of personal connections for getting access to opportunities, such as a good job or university education, and expectations of future socioeconomic mobility. The analysis of survey data finds evidence that: (i) lack of connections is associated with expectations of a lower position on the future social ladder; and (ii) when informal connections are unavailable, it matters for your aspirations whether you perceive connections to be vital or not. There is also some evidence that in the European Union, where formal institutions are stronger, individuals are less likely to resort to informal institutions such as personal connections, even when these are available. Perceptions of unequal access to opportunities are also linked with stronger redistributive preferences. Finally, there is some evidence that unequal access to opportunities is associated not only with lower intragenerational mobility, but also with lower intergenerational mobility.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Poverty Lines,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Poverty Diagnostics,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Labor Markets,Inequality,Natural Disasters
    Date: 2019–02–05
  25. By: Mark Harris (Curtin Univ, Sch Econ Finance & Property); Hervé Le Bihan (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Patrick Sevestre (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Curtin Univ, Sch Econ Finance & Property)
    Abstract: Price reviews are a potentially costly activity. A significant fraction of unchanged prices may stem from firms not reviewing prices, rather than from obstacles to changing prices per se, such as menu costs. In this paper, we disentangle these two causes of price stickiness by estimating an inflated ordered probit model on a panel of French manufacturing firms. The results point to a low frequency of price reviews, suggestive of the relevance of information costs as a determinant of the observed price stickiness. In view of the "inattentive producers" literature, pointing that the source of price rigidity matters, this is suggestive of a large real effect of monetary policy.
    Keywords: price stickiness,price reviews,price changes,inflated ordered probit model
    Date: 2019–12–03
  26. By: Georg Goetz (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Daniel Herold (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Phil-Adrian Klotz (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Jan Thomas Schaefer (Justus Liebig University Giessen)
    Abstract: We analyze the substitutability between brick-and-mortar stores and e-Commerce. Using a novel data set on the German book market we find that between 26 and 55% of the decrease in book sales from 2014-2017 can be explained by the decrease in the number of bookstores. This indicates that brick-and-mortar stores and e-Commerce are imperfect substitutes. One explanation could be that some consumers prefer to purchase books offine because of the service provision in brick-and-mortar stores (e.g., advice, atmosphere, presentation, sales-effort, etc.). We also find that the degree of substitutability differs between different types of books. When a bookshop closes the decrease in sales of fiction titles is more than 2 times larger than the decrease in sales of non-fiction titles. Our findings indicate that regulatory measures and vertical restraints that increase the number of bookstores can have a positive effect on the demand for books even in the presence of e-Commerce.
    Keywords: Experience goods, Retailing, e-Commerce
    Date: 2020
  27. By: LEPORI Benedetto; BONACCORSI Andrea; DARAIO Cinzia; DARAIO Alessandro; BRUNI Renato; CATALANO Giuseppe; MATTEUCCI Giorgio; SCANNAPIECO Monica; GUNNES Hebe; HOVDHAUGEN Elisabeth; PLODER Michael; TODOROVIC Natalja; WAGNER-SCHUSTER Daniel
    Abstract: This report presents the current status of the European Tertiary Education Register (ETER), as well as recommendations for its future development. As an outcome of this work, the ETER database is now consolidated in terms of methodology and data content, but also of a technical infrastructure, which allows an efficient management of the data and allows users to access the data through a variety of options (direct download, automated download, API access). As documented in this report, ETER is establishing itself as the reference dataset for European higher education and is being widely used both for policy analysis and for scholarly purposes. The final recommendations of this report deal with further consolidating and extending the system and better embedding it in a broader landscape of higher education databases at the international level. The report advises that, in the long term, ETER should be established as a lasting activity run by the European Commission with the support of EUROSTAT and the participation of member states. To this aim, future ETER activities should focus to a stronger extent on establishing institutional collaborations with statistical data providers, Commission services and users, while maintaining and further developing the data collection, communication and dissemination activities.
    Date: 2020–02
  28. By: Dietmar Fehr; Daniel Müller; Marcel Preuss
    Abstract: This paper examines how perceptions of social mobility affect acceptance of inequality. We conduct a randomized information intervention in a large and heterogeneous sample of Germans to manipulate beliefs about social mobility. While the information treatment renders social mobility perceptions significantly more pessimistic, we find strong evidence that these more pessimistic perceptions change neither revealed distributional preferences nor support for greater redistribution or education spending. We present suggestive evidence for the lack of a measurable treatment effect. Participants do not seem to perceive low mobility rates as unfair, as they do not link the persistence of socioeconomic status to luck. Finally, the large sample size allows us to rule out economically meaningful treatment effects.
    Keywords: Social mobility, distributional preferences, inequality, survey experiment
    JEL: C93 D31 H23 H24 H41
    Date: 2020–02

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